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Hungary’s New PM Magyar Picks Karman to Lead Fiscal Recovery

Hungary’s state-heavy ‘Orbánomics” is officially over. Enter Péter Magyar, who wishes to ‘mend relations’ with the EU.

Now that Péter Magyar has taken office as Hungary’s new prime minister, he will look to András Karman, his nominee for finance minister, to execute a rapid fiscal pivot, dismantling 16 years of state-heavy “Orbánomics” and restoring investor confidence in the Central European hub.

Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% to 2.3 % this year, with average consumer prices rising 3.8% and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s April World Economic Outlook.

The outgoing government of Viktor Orbán did not give Karman much to work with, as the first-quarter cash-flow deficit reached 3.4 trillion forints ($11.3 billion). At 80% of the full-year target, leaving the incoming administration with negligible fiscal headroom.

“[Former Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán has always regarded fiscal order as equal with neoliberal ideology or austerity attitude, or ‘something the Left does in office,’” says Péter Ákos Bod, professor emeritus in the Department of Economic Policy at Corvinus University of Budapest and former governor of the Central Bank of Hungary.

Path to Stabilization

Growth is picking up after a three-year post-pandemic stall. Fitch Ratings now projects GDP to rise by 2.3% this year and 2.6% in 2027, driven by a rebound in domestic demand and heavy investment in the auto and battery sectors.

However, fiscal risks persist. While inflation is cooling toward 3.5%, the deficit widened to 5% last year and is expected to hit 5.6% in 2026. This “fiscal slippage” led Fitch to issue a negative Sovereign Outlook in December, signaling the narrow window Karman has to stabilize the books.

A life-long banker, Karman’s immediate task will be to free approximately €17 billion in EU Cohesion Funds and a Recovery and Resilience Facility, which have been frozen since late 2022.

“While the funds ostensibly hinge on meeting 27 ‘super milestones’ around judicial independence, anti-corruption, and procurement transparency,” said Sili Tian, a Central and Eastern Europe analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “We expect a relatively quick disbursement as Mr. Magyar seeks to quickly mend relations with the EU.”

That may be difficult to achieve, he said, as many Orbán loyalists are entrenched across the bureaucracy, the tax authority, the judiciary, and Hungary’s largest enterprises, some with tenure into the 2030s.

Longer-term goals, such as exiting the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, will require Hungary to reduce its budget deficit and its debt-to-GDP ratio. The process will likely take longer than the incoming government’s four-year term.

Justin Keay contributed to this article.

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Péter Magyar sworn in as Hungary’s new prime minister

1 of 2 | Peter Magyar, left, takes the oath of office as prime minister of Hungary during the inaugural session of the new National Assembly in Budapest, Hungary, Saturday. Photo by Tibor Illyes/EPA

May 9 (UPI) — Péter Magyar has been sworn in as Hungary’s new prime minister, ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year, right-wing leadership.

“I will not rule over Hungary — I will serve my country,” Magyar said Saturday after he took the oath of office in parliament, The BBC reported.

Magyar’s Tisza Party now holds 141 out of 199 seats in the parliament. That’s up from none because the party was formed two years ago.

Orbán’s Fidesz party dropped from 135 to 52 seats in the election in April.

Tisza is not a strong swing to the left; Magyar, 44, was once a Fidesz Party operative. But on March 15, 2024, he left the party to join Tisza, then an unknown startup.

Now, Magyar is a center-right politician: not quite a liberal or progressive, and definitely a conservative. But he is pro-Europe and European Union, which Orbán was not.

The EU flag was hung on the Hungarian parliament building for the first time since 2014.

Magyar had invited people to join him to “write Hungarian history” together Saturday and “step through the gate of regime change.” Supporters gathered outside the parliament building, cheering and waving Hungarian flags.

Leftist and liberal parties will have no seats in the parliament for the first time since 1990, when Hungary broke free of the Soviet Union. But Budapest’s liberal mayor Gergely Karácsony said the new regime is still cause for celebration.

“Teachers fired, civilians and journalists humiliated, small churches torn apart,” Karácsony wrote on social media. “We can finally leave this era behind us — but first, let us remember the everyday heroes and express our gratitude with a farewell to the system.”

“This is the first time I feel like it’s good to be Hungarian,” Erzsébet Medve, 68, from Miskolc in northeastern Hungary, told The Guardian. “I feel like I could cry.”

Orbán and the Fidesz government cut education funding in Hungary. “The government had enough money, but they didn’t spend it there,” said Medve, a teacher.

Marianna Szűcs, 70, said she hoped Hungary would become more livable. “Now we feel like our children and grandchildren have a future here.”

New Tisza ministers said that while there will be no revenge against Orban’s people, those guilty of financial crimes will be held accountable. There will be a new office created to “recover stolen assets.”

“I don’t think that we should talk about a guillotine,” said Zoltán Tarr, incoming minister for Social Relations and Culture.

“We are talking about investigations and actions which are totally in line with the rule of law. Interestingly enough, the current chief prosecutor, and the police, have started certain investigations which they did not start before the election. They are questioning people.”

The Magyar government plans to convince the EU to release $20 billion in funds that the EU had held back from the Orbán government.

“I’m not worried, I’m excited,” Tarr said. “We are serving the country. We are serving the people. We are not here to rule. We are here to serve. We are here to fulfill a mandate.”

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Hungary’s Political Shift Ends Orbán Era but EU Reset Faces Deep Political Fault Lines

The election victory of Hungary’s Tisza party on April 12 marks the end of the 16 year rule of Viktor Orbán, a figure who has long defined Hungary’s contentious relationship with the European Union. His tenure reshaped Hungary’s domestic institutions and repeatedly placed the country at odds with EU norms, laws, and political consensus.

The incoming leadership under Péter Magyar now inherits not only a domestic mandate for change but also the complex task of rebuilding trust with the EU after years of institutional confrontation.

A fractured relationship with Brussels

Under Orbán, Hungary frequently clashed with EU institutions over rule of law, judicial independence, media freedom, and migration policy. One of the most controversial measures was the lowering of the retirement age for judges and prosecutors, which critics argued enabled political reshaping of the judiciary.

Tensions escalated further after 2022, when Hungary’s stance on sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine created repeated deadlocks within EU decision making processes.

Financial pressure also became a key tool of EU leverage. The European Commission suspended billions of euros in funding to Hungary, citing concerns over corruption and democratic backsliding, deepening the political divide.

Allegations and escalating mistrust

Relations deteriorated further following leaked reports alleging that senior Hungarian officials coordinated with Russian counterparts during sensitive EU discussions. These claims intensified accusations within parts of the EU that Hungary had undermined collective decision making during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.

While Budapest has rejected many of these allegations, they contributed to a climate of mistrust that severely weakened Hungary’s position within the bloc.

A new government with a reform mandate

The Tisza party’s victory signals a clear domestic demand for change, particularly around governance and corruption. The new administration has strong incentives to restore relations with the EU, not least because of the approximately 17 billion euros in suspended funding that could be unlocked if conditions are met.

EU leaders, however, have made it clear that financial normalization will depend on compliance with a wide set of governance and legal reforms. These include anti corruption measures, judicial independence safeguards, and adjustments to policies affecting migration and minority rights.

Structural constraints on reform

Despite political momentum for rapprochement, significant obstacles remain. Hungarian society remains more socially conservative and more sceptical of the EU than many of its Western counterparts. This limits the political space for rapid liberal reforms, particularly in sensitive areas such as LGBTQ+ rights and asylum policy.

Economic pressures further complicate the situation. The new government will inherit fiscal strain linked to years of disputed EU funding and broader geopolitical uncertainty, including the economic effects of the ongoing war involving Iran, which has disrupted global energy markets and increased financial volatility.

Ukraine and the Russia question

One of the most sensitive areas in Hungary’s future EU relationship will be its position on Ukraine. While Péter Magyar has signaled a willingness to improve relations with Ukraine and align more closely with NATO and EU policy, key ambiguities remain.

His stated openness to continuing Russian energy imports for the foreseeable future, combined with proposals for a referendum on Ukrainian EU membership, suggests that strategic continuity with aspects of the previous government may persist.

Given public scepticism toward Ukraine within Hungary, any referendum could significantly complicate EU enlargement plans.

Analysis

The end of Orbán’s long tenure represents a clear political inflection point in EU Hungary relations. It removes a persistent source of institutional confrontation and opens the possibility of renewed cooperation with Brussels.

However, the assumption that relations will automatically normalize is overly optimistic. The structural sources of tension between Hungary and the EU extend beyond one leader. They include divergent political cultures, competing interpretations of sovereignty, and deep disagreements over migration, rule of law, and foreign policy alignment.

The new government’s dependence on EU funds gives Brussels significant leverage, but also creates domestic political risk if reforms are perceived as externally imposed. This creates a delicate balancing act between compliance and legitimacy.

On foreign policy, Hungary’s position on Russia and Ukraine will remain the most consequential test. Even partial continuity with previous policies could reintroduce friction at a time when EU unity is under pressure from multiple geopolitical crises.

Ultimately, Orbán’s departure may mark the end of one chapter, but it does not resolve the underlying tensions that have defined Hungary’s relationship with the European project. The reset, while possible, will be gradual, conditional, and politically contested.

With information from Reuters.

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