hopefuls

The Kentucky Derby will be run in eight weeks, which allows plenty of time for considerable changes in the field.

And yet, there’s really not much time at all. Each Derby candidate has only one or two chances remaining to earn one of the 20 stalls in the oversized starting gate at Churchill Downs.

That means every prep race, including Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, takes on added importance as horses run into or out of contention. Others will disappear from the trail because of illness or injury.

For now, the favorites are horses coming off victories in races in Louisiana, Florida and Arkansas — Paladin, Commandment, Nearly, Renegade and Class President.

But anyone who thinks they know what will happen between now and May 2 probably also believes they can find a hotel room on Derby weekend near Churchill Downs for less than $400.

No one understands that better than the trainer who has won the race a record-tying six times.

You don’t take horses to the Derby, Bob Baffert said this week. “They take you to the Derby.”

Recent events served as another reminder. Barely more than a week ago, Baffert likely would have listed his top Derby candidates as Plutarch, Litmus Test and Brant.

Then, on Feb. 25, Baffert revealed Plutarch had a minor setback after his win last month in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and would not make the Kentucky Derby.

Three days later, Litmus Test faded to third place in his first start of the year, the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.

In between those disappointments, though, there was surprisingly good news for Baffert. Cherokee Nation, winless in five career starts, ran the fastest mile (1:34.50) in nearly a decade at Santa Anita. It was only a maiden race, but Cherokee Nation won by 10 lengths and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. Only one 3-year-old, Fountain of Youth winner Commandment, has a higher figure this year in a race longer than a mile, and that was by one point.

“What he did … was pretty impressive to me,” Baffert said of the son of Not This Time who sold for $1.15 million as a yearling. “His stock went way up.”

Suddenly, Cherokee Nation could be Baffert’s top prospect, though he’ll have to prove it next month in the Santa Anita Derby, in which he’ll need to finish first or second to have enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

Brant, right, ridden by Flavien Pratt, finished third behind Ted Noffey and John Velazquez, center, and Mr. A.P. and Antonio Fresu, left, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in October.

(Gregory Bull / Associated Press)

Or maybe it’s Brant.

The son of Gun Runner who cost $3 million at a sale last March recorded a 101 Beyer figure in a flashy 5½-furlong debut last summer, and followed that win with another in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. But he was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t raced since.

That changes Saturday with Brant making his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 San Felipe, one of four graded stakes on an 11-race card at Santa Anita. He is the even-money favorite on the morning line for the 1-1/16-mile race, which will award 50 Derby points to the winner, guaranteeing a spot in the starting gate.

“He looks good,” Baffert said. “The freshening did him well. He grew a little bit. He’s not a real big horse but he’s starting to grow right now. … It’s a tough race. There’s some nice horses in there. It’s a pretty salty prep race, but they usually are.”

Baffert has another San Felipe starter in Potente, an Into Mischief colt who cost $2.4 million as a yearling. He’s run only once, winning a sprint five weeks ago, and while Baffert would have preferred to run him in a two-turn allowance race, there aren’t any available for 3-year-olds at Santa Anita.

As he saw with Cherokee Nation, though, no one knows who will prove worthy or when.

The 2-1 second choice is So Happy, a winner of two sprint races who was sired by a sprinter (Runhappy) but is getting a chance to see if he can run farther than maybe his breeding would suggest. He is an obvious sentimental favorite; he is trained by Mark Glatt, whose wife of 25 years, Dena, died Feb. 12 from cardiac arrest. She was 57.

Not-so-Big ’Cap

With heavily favored Skippylongstocking and San Pasqual Stakes winner Westwood scratched, the $300,000 Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday is down to five starters, none of whom has won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race. In fact, new morning-line favorite Just a Touch never has won any stakes race, though he’s been second or third six times in seven tries (he was last in the 2024 Kentucky Derby).

The only graded-stakes winners in the field are Baffert’s Getaway Car, who won a Grade 3 sprint as a 2-year-old, and Midnight Mammoth, who won a Grade 3 marathon race two years ago but lost his last two stakes tries by a combined 56¾ lengths.

The other two starters are Vodka Vodka, whose lone stakes win came in a turf race restricted to California-bred horses, and British Isles, who has never won a stakes race. The latter’s trainer, Richard Baltas, won this race with Idol in 2021. Baffert has won it six times.

The first of the four stakes races is the $300,000 B. Wayne Hughes Beholder Mile, with Splendora the 4-5 favorite for Baffert after winning four straight races, including the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall at Del Mar and the D. Wayne Lukas Stakes last month at Santa Anita.

El Potente is the 5-2 favorite in the wide-open, $200,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile, which this year was downgraded to a Grade 2.

Fearing the prospect of a Republican winning California’s gubernatorial race, state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks on Tuesday urged his party’s candidates who lack a viable path to victory to drop out.

“It is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign,” Hicks wrote in an open letter to the politicians vying to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom. “I recognize my suggestions are hard for many to contemplate and may be even viewed as overly harsh by some.”

Hicks did not name the Democrats he wants out of the race.

But, even though the odds are relatively low, California cannot risk having a Republican elected as the next governor at a time when President Trump is in the White House, he said.

“[S]o much is at stake in our Nation and so many are counting on the leadership of California Democrats to stand up and speak out at this historic moment,” Hicks wrote. “California’s leadership on the world stage is significantly harder if a Democrat is not elected as our next Governor.”

Hicks urged Democrats languishing at the bottom of the field of candidates to drop out before the Friday deadline to officially file to run for governor — to ensure their names do not appear on the June primary ballot.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

With nine top Democrats running, the fear is that the candidates will splinter their party’s vote and allow the top two Republicans in the race to finish in first and second place. This is despite Democratic registered voters outnumbering Republicans in the state by almost 2 to 1, and no GOP candidate winning a statewide election since 2006.

Having two Republicans competing in the November election would be devastating to Democratic voter turnout and could hurt party candidates in pivotal down-ballot races.

“The result would present a real risk to winning the congressional seats required and imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House, cut Donald Trump’s term in half, and spare our Nation from the pain many have endured since January 2025,” Hicks said in his letter. “We simply can’t let that happen.”

A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that five candidates lead the contest — former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer among Democrats and conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both Republicans. Hilton and Bianco have led all candidates in other polls over the last few months.

Discussions about the need for some Democrats to exit the race took place at last weekend’s California Democratic Party convention as well as when the powerful California Federation of Labor Unions began its endorsement process last week.

But a politically thorny issue is that nearly all of the Democrats lagging in the polls are people of color, as former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra noted at a candidate forum Monday evening.

“By the way, there are people who are calling for candidates to get out of the race,” he said at a gathering hosted by Equality California and the Los Angeles LGBT Center at the Renberg Theatre in Hollywood. “Isn’t it interesting that the candidates they are asking get out of the race are the candidates of color? So don’t take me there.”

Hicks, asked about the effect on candidates of color, lauded the field’s accomplishments.

“We have a number of strong candidates. They have incredible stories, and they are reflective of the diversity of our party. That being said, there are some political realities of where we are at at this particular moment,” he said in an interview. “I’m not calling on any specific candidates to move in one direction or the other. I’m just calling on them to assess their campaign and determine if they have a viable [path] and if they don’t, to not file.”

During Monday evening’s gubernatorial forum, Porter said she is concerned about the prospect of two Republicans making the top two.

“I hear people say to me, it could never happen, but everybody said that about Trump too,” she said at the forum. “And I look at how much harm we’re suffering, and I think about all the political risks that people are facing every day, the risk of an immigrant to leave their home and walk on our streets, the risk of a kid who’s trans to try to play sports even in this state. And I just don’t think we can take any more political risks.”

Times staff writer Phil Willon contributed to this report.

Reporting from Washington — When Elizabeth Warren launched her 2012 Senate bid in Massachusetts, some Democrats there worried. Another woman had run two years earlier and failed miserably. But Warren ignored warnings that she would be “another Martha Coakley.” She beat the incumbent by more than 7 percentage points and became the first woman elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

Now Warren is among a record number of women running for president in 2020. Again, they’re operating in the shadow of failure — Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful White House bid in 2016 — but also the widespread successes of women in the 2018 midterm election.

Sen. Kamala Harris of California joins Warren and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the upper tier of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination. Each takes a different tack in navigating the powerful crosscurrents of being a woman in national politics.

Gillibrand plays the gender card most emphatically, emphasizing her record on protecting women from sexual assault and her support for female candidates. Explaining why she is running for president, she often begins, “As a young mom…”

Harris’ campaign rollout, including Sunday’s kickoff rally in Oakland, focused more on her connections with the black community and a career in law enforcement that breaks from gender stereotypes.

Warren tells her story as the daughter of an economically struggling family, putting class, not gender, at the center of her campaign.

“There is no uniform approach to how these women will navigate gender in the campaign,” said Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

2020 candidates: Who’s in and who’s on the fence? »

“While Gillibrand sees and discusses politics and policy through a gender lens, Warren’s primary focus has been on class. In her rollout, Kamala Harris has already shown that she will embrace and discuss being a black woman in power.”

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii also has announced a long-shot bid for president, with considerable focus on her status as a military veteran. The field of female candidates may grow if Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a former prosecutor like Harris, decides to run.

“I love that fact that we have four women running, and that America gets to see what different forms of female leadership look like,” Gillibrand said.

In the aftermath of Clinton’s failure, however, some Democrats worry about a stubborn strain of sexism in the electorate.

“I don’t know if America has changed enough; hopefully they have, with the #MeToo movement,” said Brad Lego, 69, a retired teacher in Sioux City, Iowa, who supports Warren.

Women historically have had a harder time winning executive offices than legislative ones. Even with a record number of women running for governor in 2018, just nine of the nation’s 50 governors are now women.

“Solo leadership is still tougher for women and people of color,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who is an expert on women in politics. “There is still a little concern about the difficulty of electing women to executive office. That wasn’t just Hillary Clinton.”

But for Democrats in 2020, for the first time in the history of presidential campaigns, being a woman is probably more a political asset than a liability. Women —- as voters and candidates — became the vanguard of the party’s resistance to President Trump, from the 2017 Women’s March to the midterm election that drew out female candidates in record numbers.

The congressional midterm saw the largest gender gap in modern political history, as Democrats won 59% of the female vote, with just 40% voting Republican. Men, by contrast, favored Republicans by a 4-point margin, 51% to 47%, according to exit polls.

Clinton tried two very different approaches to gender as a political issue. When she sought the Democratic nomination in 2008, she essentially ran away from the subject.

“I am not running as a woman,” she would say. “I am running because I believe I am the best qualified and experienced person.”

Eight years later, she talked often about the history-making potential of her campaign to “shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling.”

The current crop of female candidates doesn’t follow either of those paths.

Gillibrand, at 52 the least known of the three female senators who have gotten into the race, is moving the most deliberately to build her identity as a defender of women.

“The future of the Democratic Party is with women,” an introductory campaign document said. She spotlights her Senate work on combating sexual abuse in the military and other issues related to sexual harassment and assault, and her political work raising money for female candidates through her political action committee, Off the Sidelines.

Pictures of children — her own and others’ — crowd her campaign website. She describes her rationale for running, offered first in her campaign announcement on Stephen Colbert’s “Late Show,” in explicitly gendered terms: “As a young mom, I’m going to fight for other people’s kids as hard as I would fight for my own.”

The approach risks delivering a message so gender specific that it alienates men. But in the short term, at least, her strategists think that any such risk is worth taking to gain purchase in a crowded field.

“My lifelong mission is for more women to have a voice and seat at the table with men, so that they can bring a new perspective to the problems facing our country,” Gillibrand says. “This vision does not exclude anyone, it brings more diverse voices into the conversation.”

Harris’ introduction to voters put more of a spotlight on race than gender: She announced her candidacy on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, gave her first press briefing at Howard University, the historically black college she attended in the 1980s, and scheduled her first campaign event in South Carolina — at a gala for a black sorority she belongs to.

During her Oakland rally, Harris spoke bluntly about racism in the criminal justice system and society at large. “I’m running to fight for an America where no mother or father has to teach their young son that people may stop him, arrest him, chase him or kill him because of his race,” Harris said.

Having advanced in a male-dominated career as a prosecutor, she offered this advice to young women in an interview with “Good Morning America”: “There are going to be many times you are going to be the only one like you in a room. It could be a meeting room, it could be a boardroom. And the thing I want you to remember is this: When you are in that room, we are all in that room with you, cheering you on.”

Harris’ tough-on-crime record has drawn skepticism from some on the party’s left, but it could appeal to public-safety conscious moms in the suburbs, including white women whose votes for Trump proved pivotal in 2016.

Warren’s campaign-launch video gave a personal window onto her life story — speaking from her kitchen, she talked about her family’s struggles, her mother’s resilience and her own rise to a law professorship at Harvard. The story spoke more to class struggle than a battle against sexism.

At other times, however, she has struck a more explicit note on gender. At an Ankeny, Iowa, campaign event with Democratic women in early January, for example, Warren relished telling how she had been warned against running for Senate after Coakley’s failure.

“It was almost as if folks were saying, ‘Hey, we tried that. It didn’t work. Come back in a generation or two, women.’ ”

She also paid tribute to how much women — especially those who were newly engaged in politics as voters and candidates — had contributed to Democrats’ 2018 midterm victories.

One of the newly engaged women was Liuba Grechen Shirley, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. Peter T. King on Long Island, N.Y. She remembers vividly an unexpected phone call of support she got from Warren.

Shirley was in the middle of a grueling day juggling the demands of campaigning with the medical needs of a young son who had broken his leg. Warren listened to her woes and offered this tough-love pep talk that spoke to the continued challenges women face in politics:

“We moms, when we run out of milk, we make breakfast with orange juice.”

janet.hook@latimes.com

Twitter: @hookjan