Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
For about a month, the United States had refrained from attacking Iranian targets as the Trump administration turned toward economic warfare against the Islamic Republic. However, that changed last night when U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) struck what it said were Iranian rocket launchers preparing to fire naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that mine-deploying rockets are not a common capability, so much so that the statement seemed bizarre at first glance. But it just turns out that Iran does claim to have such a system and that system would have a glaring application in the current state of play of the conflict. In fact, it would be absolutely critical to do exactly what CENTCOM did, blowing them up prior to launching, because if they didn’t, the final and very fragile energy lifeline between the Persian Gulf and the world could be severed at the worst possible time.
“I can confirm that earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM’s spokesman, told us Sunday evening. “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.”
Larak Island. (Google Earth)
The U.S. strikes against the launchers on Sunday spurred Iran to respond with ballistic missile attacks on a Jordanian air base housing U.S. troops. Jordanian officials said all eight missiles were intercepted, and no casualties or damage was inflicted.
Jordan’s @ArmedForcesJO say air defense systems intercepted eight missiles that entered the Kingdom’s airspace early Monday.
The military said the missiles were destroyed before posing a threat to civilians or property.
📍 Details:
🔹 A…
— Dana Zureikat Daoud دانا زريقات (@DanaZkat) August 31, 2026
Hawkins did not specify what exact type of rocket launcher was struck or whether this was the first time CENTCOM had seen Iran use this type of system to launch sea mines.
Though CENTCOM won’t comment on what kind of system was attacked, Iran did tout just this kind of a system last year with exactly the kind of range needed to be a huge problem for the U.S. and its allies. This system uses a variant of the Fajr-5 rocket that is converted with a sea mine warhead.
You can see a video of that system below.
Video of the Iranian rocket deployed naval mine system which is claimed to be able to deploy hundreds of mines in the sea from the coast in an hour. pic.twitter.com/ba897On0nV
The clip shows the rockets being fired from a truck-mounted multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). The video later cuts to nose cone-shaped mines that appear to float on the surface above the spent missile body, however, little is known about the Fajr-5 sea mine warhead conversion process that allows them to be delivered by rocket.
We also don’t know the full extent to which Iran has developed and/or fielded this particular capability, or whether it has other options for similarly deploying naval mines by rocket. Neither Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, nor the Ambrey maritime security firm has seen any indication that Tehran has used an MLRS to launch sea mines in the past.
At the same time, “the Fajr-5 is an Iranian calling card, a 333mm caliber rocket that can reportedly travel 75 km carrying between an estimated 90 to 170 kg warhead, depending on the payload,” Taleblu, an expert on Iranian weapons systems, told TWZ.
The Fajr-5 is an established design that traces its roots back to the 1990s and has been evolving since then. “The Fajr class was initially designed as unguided artillery rockets, though Iran claims to have developed a guided version,” Taleblu added.
A Fajr-5 rocket and launcher. (U.S. Army)
In general terms, being able to seed naval mines via artillery rockets would offer several advantages for Iran, most immediately by offering an alternative to traditional maritime mine-laying platforms. The destruction of Iran’s naval forces was a top stated objective for the U.S. military during the opening phases of the conflict earlier this year. Iranian vessels, including ones capable of laying mines, were heavily targeted. Still, Iran has retained a large number of its smaller boats that can be used for seeding minefields.
Regardless of what boats they have left, mining the area that actually matters most would be impossible to do as any vessel approaching the southern coast of the Strait of Hormuz would be destroyed. It’s through these tight and complex littorals that a reduced flow of commercial vessels are still traveling, under the kinetic umbrella of the U.S. and its Gulf state allies. The Fajr-5, fired from Iranian controlled islands in the strait, has the range to land in these waterways, seeding mines without risking any boat crews or other platforms. If the rocket-delivered mines splash down, the de-mining process would have to begin, which can be arduous and last weeks, potentially shutting down all shipping.
With that in mind, Iran’s weapon is remarkably relevant to the situation, assuming it works. But even if it doesn’t, it could still pose a risk to mariners even if its efficacy is questionable.
Furthermore, being able to turn any launcher for Fajr-5s (and/or potentially ones for other types of artillery rockets) into a naval mine layer rather than having to rely on specialized systems would be a boon unto itself. Artillery rockets and launchers are something Iran had deep stockpiles of before the war with the United States and Israel started earlier this year. How many naval mine rockets Iran might have, and whether it might be possible to convert existing types to that configuration, are open questions.
Using a road-mobile launcher would also give Iranians a ‘shoot-and-scoot’ option for deploying naval mines where the launch could be exposed only for a short period of time. This, in turn, would create additional targeting challenges for U.S. forces. It is possible that, as it does elsewhere, Iran has constructed tunnels under Larak Island to hide these systems, as well.
A Fajr-5 launcher. (U.S. Army)
Overall, the “deployment of naval mines by missile significantly speeds up the deployment process, improves the ability to penetrate airspace, and increases the standoff distance between the minelayer and the field, making it the least risky minelaying method,” a piece published by the Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC) think tank last year, which also highlighted Iran’s apparent demonstration of the Fajr-5-based capability, noted.
While the Fajr-5’s estimated payload capacity is “light compared to U.S. or Chinese naval mines,” the mines the rockets could deliver “are still heavier than diver-delivered limpet mines and could conceivably disable a ship if struck by enough mines from the field,” the piece added. “Most importantly, this field could be delivered rapidly and with little warning. Even though the explosive capacity of this mine individually is small, the psychological impact from inflicting minor damage on a small number of merchants could still be enough to force shipping companies to avoid the area.”
“Though it’s a bit unconventional, using a rocket launcher again signals that the regime is sensitive to cost and risk, and is trying to deploy mines in a way that doesn’t put as much personnel at risk as by dropping them overboard,” Taleblu posited. “It was reported in the military exercise over a year ago that the regime had used an MLRS system like the Fajr to deploy these, but I haven’t seen significant video confirmation of this most recent round.”
With all this in mind, the point about “psychological impact” mentioned in the CIMSEC piece could be particularly relevant in this case. By launching the attacks on Larak Island, CENTCOM has in a way given credence to Iran having a real capability to launch mines via rocket into the Strait of Hormuz. That threat by itself could be enough to cause commercial ship crews, their corporate operators, and insurance companies to think twice about attempted transits.
This is exactly the issue that President Trump, among others, has repeatedly sought to downplay, including multiple times just within the past week.
“We’re taking them in,” Trump told Glenn Beck last week. “The mines are gone. You probably saw that, we put it out yesterday, all the mines. We got rid of the mines. But the strait, it’s functioning, it’s a functioning strait. Uh, yes, every once in a while, there’ll be a drone or a rocket or something shot, but it is a very functioning strait.”
President Trump Exclusive: Dolly Parton, Canada, Iran and Rise of Sharia Law | Hour 1 | 8/26/26
“Last week, CENTCOM completed clearing sea mines from the strait’s international shipping routes,” Hawkins, the CENTCOM spokesman, told us yesterday. “U.S. forces are monitoring the area closely and remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway.”
“The U.S. military has achieved a major milestone in the Strait of Hormuz,” Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM’s commander, stated last week. “We have successfully cleared sea mines in the strait’s international shipping lanes that were laid months ago by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Internationally recognized transit routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines, thanks to the incredible work of the U.S. military.”
CENTCOM pushed back Monday on Iranian claims that an oil tanker was hit by mines in the command’s preferred transit route.
“CLAIM: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims that a supertanker passing through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz struck two mines and was brought to a complete stop. This is FALSE,” the command stated on X. “FACT: No ships have hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This is yet another IRGC attempt to intimidate regional commercial shipping through disinformation.”
🚫 CLAIM: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims that a supertanker passing through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz struck two mines and was brought to a complete stop. This is FALSE.
Still, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) — a group of international navies which provides timely information to the shipping industry — sees mines as an ongoing risk in the strait.
“Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at reduced levels, with a modest uptick from recent lows, still far below baseline,” JMIC stated on Sunday. “Independent tracking data indicated suppression with single-digit numbers transiting in both directions. There remained a continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines in and near the TSS, with mine danger areas still active.”
The combination of ongoing dangers in the strait continues to result in reduced traffic, the global trade intelligence firm Kpler noted on X.
“Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb declined on 25 August, while the IMO [International Maritime Organization] verified no additional attacks,” Kpler added. “Five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down 28.6% day on day from seven. All five used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with two entering the Middle East Gulf and three exiting. Four were classified as shadow vessels and one as sanctioned.”
Strait crossings remain subdued
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb declined on 25 August, while the IMO verified no additional attacks. Five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down 28.6% day on day from seven. All five used the Iranian Unilateral… pic.twitter.com/BI9cFAaJRy
The latest flare-up in fighting came after the Trump administration last week unleashed the threat of harsh new sanctions to further isolate Iran. However, that failed to move Tehran to change its position on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, its nuclear ambitions or support for proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Monday morning, Trump told Fox News reporter Trey Yingst that he was going to retaliate for Iran launching ballistic missiles last night after the U.S. strike on Larak Island.
“We’re going to hit them hard,” Trump told the network. “There will be a response.”
President Trump says the United States will respond to the Iranian missile attack on U.S. forces overnight.
“We’re going to hit them hard,” President Trump told Fox News. “There will be a response.” pic.twitter.com/sjLOLSxm4g
Trump and his senior aides “have been consideringwaging limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuzto prevent Iran from reconstituting its radar and missile capabilitiesto attack ships,” Axios reported, according to three U.S. officials.
“One U.S. official said the idea behind the plan is to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks on oil tankers, U.S. Navy ships and Air Force aircraft — to ‘mow the lawn,’ as this person put it.”
It is unclear if Iran has used rockets to mine the strait or how well this system works if it did. However, the fact the U.S. resumed hostilities just to attack sea-mine-launching rocket systems shows the level of concern they engendered and the options Iran may still have to threaten the strait.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
The U.S. Army has chosen Hanwha Defense USA to advance to the next phase of its Mobile Tactical Cannon (MTC) program. The company will now provide prototypes of its wheeled 155mm K9 Mobile Howitzer for further testing. This, in turn, could lead to its adoption as a replacement for the Army’s existing towed 155mm M777 howitzers.
“The U.S. Army announced today an agreement with Hanwha Defense USA, Arlington, Virginia, for the development of prototypes for the Mobile Tactical Cannon program, a critical priority in the Army’s ongoing continuous transformation and long-range fires modernization efforts,” according to a press release the service put out this evening. “Awarded competitively under an Other Transaction Authority (10 U.S.C. Section 4022), the firm-fixed-price agreement will provide the Army with up to 18 wheeled Self-Propelled Howitzer Systems for rapid prototyping, testing, and Soldier experimentation over an estimated four-year period of performance. The amount of this action is $100,302,961 with a total cumulative face value of $262,903,274.”
A stock picture of Hanwha’s wheeled 155mm K9 Mobile Howitzer. Hanwha
OTAs are a contracting mechanism that U.S. government agencies regularly use to help accelerate advanced research and development and prototype efforts.
The Army’s release does not explicitly mention the K9 Mobile Howitzer (K9MH), also known as the K9A2. However, Hanwha Defense USA has confirmed that this is the design it will be supplying in its own press release. The company had also announced this would be its entry for the MTC competition back in March. American Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems, and Elbit Systems USA had also been in the running.
“The agreement provides for the accelerated delivery of six prototype MTC systems, with an option for an additional 12. Soldiers will use these platforms in a series of operational experiments to assess performance, reliability, and supportability in realistic combat conditions,” the release adds. “This Soldier-centric, experiment-driven approach reflects the Army’s continuous transformation initiative to rapidly deliver lethal capabilities, incorporate immediate Soldier feedback, and adapt the force to pace emerging threats in multi-domain operations.”
The K9MH was developed from Hanwha’s earlier tracked K9 design, variants and derivatives of which are already in service in South Korea, as well as Australia, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, India, Norway, Poland, and Turkey. Both the tracked and wheeled designs share the same 52-caliber 155mm cannon. Caliber here is a measurement of length in relation to the diameter of the barrel. A 52-caliber 155mm barrel is just under 26 and a half feet long. The M777’s barrel is 39 calibers long, or just around 16.7 feet.
K9 and K10 prove compatibility with US munitions during a live-fire demonstration at YPG
In general, longer barrels on howitzers translate to greater range. Hanwha says the maximum range of the K9MH is just over 37 miles (60 kilometers), though it is unclear if this is only when using rocket-assisted or other specialized ammunition. The stated maximum range of the M777, even when using specialized rounds, is just under 20 miles.
As a self-propelled howitzer, the 8×8 K9MH also offers the benefit of integrated mobility over the towed M777, which requires a separate vehicle to move it from point A to point B. “Its emplacement/displacement times of under 30 seconds enables ‘shoot and scoot’ tactics,” according to Hanwha’s website.
The K9MH can also carry 40 rounds of ammunition onboard, as well as be rapidly reloaded in the field via a companion K10 resupply vehicle.
“We’re focused on creating a U.S.-anchored K9 Mobile Howitzer manufacturing network – with Opelika, Alabama, as the current phase I launch point – that can deliver advanced Mobile Tactical Cannons at the speed and scale the U.S. Army needs,” Jason Pak, Hanwha Defense USA Head of Land Systems-Artillery, also said in a statement.
“Hanwha’s global supply chain and local production experience in Australia, Egypt, Poland and Romania demonstrate a proven commitment to local execution we’re excited to bring to the U.S.,” Michael Coulter, Hanwha Defense USA CEO, said in his own statement. “Localization is central to Hanwha’s global business model, leveraging our global leading industrial technology and process in Korea to create sovereign industrial strength in the U.S., whether it be in shipbuilding, munitions or combat vehicles.”
The Army has been actively exploring the idea of replacing the M777 with a new wheeled self-propelled howitzer since at least 2019, and has even conducted shoot-offs of various designs in the past. The service has also made clear that its selection of Hanwha Defense USA to advance in the MTC effort does not guarantee that it will field the K9MH.
US Army soldiers train with an M777 towed howitzer. US Army
“Data and insights gained from these experiments will directly inform senior leaders’ decisions on future fielding. If approved for fielding, MTC will replace M777 towed artillery systems in select formations, significantly increasing their lethality, mobility, reliability, and survivability on the modern, highly transparent battlefield,” per the Army’s release today. “By rapidly prototyping these systems, the Army is advancing a more mobile and adaptable fires formation aligned with the rigorous demands of large-scale combat operations.”
The release does not elaborate on what “select formations” might be in line to eventually receive K9MHs. However, a past MTC contracting notice says the initial focus is on replacing M777s within Brigade Combat Teams equipped with Stryker wheeled light armored vehicles. Airborne, airmobile, and ‘leg’ infantry brigades also have M777s that could be supplanted by new wheeled self-propelled howitzers.
The possibility of the Army replacing at least a portion of its existing M109-series tracked self-propelled 155mm howitzers has also been raised in the past. However, the service’s press release today makes clear that the focus of the MTC program right now is still on replacing towed M777s. There is a long-standing debate about the relative pros and cons of wheeled versus tracked self-propelled howitzers, with the U.S. Army long having favored the latter. Tracked designs typically offer greater off-road mobility and are often more heavily armored. They are also generally heavier overall, which can negatively impact mobility and transportability more broadly, and can be more costly to acquire and operate.
A current-generation version of the M109 in US Army service. US Army
“If you look at the [fight] in Ukraine on either side, it’s really hard to move out and get fires ready to go. … The Paladin [the name applied to the latest A6 and A7 variants of the M109] is just incapable of it at speed,” Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll told members of the House Appropriations Committee at a hearing earlier this year. “And so while we think the Paladin will be in our lives for a while, because we want to be good custodians of the assets the American taxpayer has given us, we think that new purchases to balance that platform out should be something different.”
At that time, Driscoll was defending his service’s omission of funding for any more M109A7s in its Fiscal Year 2027 budget proposal.
It is worth noting here that both sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have and continue to employ tracked and wheeled self-propelled howitzers, as well as towed types. The war has underscored the continued importance of artillery, in general. At the same time, mobility, and greater speed while on the move, are ever more important considerations in an era of drone warfare and expanded kill chains that put anything that stays in one place too long at higher risk
MTC is part of a larger Self-Propelled Howitzer-Modernization (SPH-M) effort that could also include the separate acquisition of a new tracked self-propelled howitzer. There have been several abortive Army attempts to replace the venerable M109 family since the 1990s. This includes the advanced XM2001 Crusader, which was canceled in 2002 ostensibly due to growing costs. The service axed the more recent XM1299, developed under its Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ECRA) program in 2024. The XM1299 featured a 58-caliber cannon and had a demonstrated range of 40 miles (just over 60 kilometers). The Army has previously said that the length of the barrel presented technical challenges that contributed to the program’s cancellation.
XM2001 Crusader Howitzer Prototype
A prototype the US Army had used in the development of the XM1299. US Army
Today’s announcement is also another important win for South Korea’s defense industry, which has made major export gains globally in recent years. Poland, in particular, has become a huge customer for South Korean arms exports, including versions of the K9. Further progress in the U.S. Army’s MTC program could offer a major inroad into the American market for Hanwha.
With today’s announcement, the Army has taken an important new step toward adding a new wheeled 155mm self-propelled howitzer to its arsenal.
Kentucky, Michigan and Gonzaga had courted Kusturica, a 6-foot-9 Serbian who is among the top 17-year-old players in Europe. Recruiting websites listed Kusturica as a five-star prospect, and college basketball analysts at Field of 64 and other outlets project Kusturica could be a top-five 2028 NBA draft pick.
UCLA announced it received a signed grant-in-aid agreement from Kusturica, who will join the Bruins for the upcoming season.
He adds to a freshman class that already included three-star center Javonte Floyd from Cedar Grove High in Atlanta and four-star forward Joe Philon III from Montverde Academy in Tampa, Fla. — both of whom signed in April and enrolled in summer classes — and Gunars Grinvalds of Latvia, a former Real Madrid forward who committed to the Bruins on June 5.
𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐨𝐝!
The Bruins have signed incoming freshmen Gunārs Grīnvalds and Nikola Kusturica – from Latvia and Serbia, respectively. The duo will join UCLA as freshmen in 2026-27.
“We are very excited to add Nikola to our program,” Cronin said. “Nikola is an elite prospect with great size, skill and a competitive fire which is hard to find. As a 6-foot-9 guard, he can play all over the floor. He impacts the game as a scorer, playmaker and shot blocker. For a very young player, Nik has had a decorated career with the Serbian national team and his club team in Barcelona. UCLA appreciates the support of his international team and his club for their cooperation and development of Nikola.”
Kusturica is expected to arrive in Westwood early next month and join team workouts that began on Thursday and continue for eight weeks.
Kusturica signed with FC Barcelona’s youth team in 2023 and became the youngest athlete to play in the Spanish club’s program. He helped FC Barcelona win the U18 Adidas Next Generation Tournament championship in May, averaging 16.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists in six games and collecting 20 points and 10 rebounds in the finals against Real Madrid.
This month, Kusturica averaged a team-leading 24.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists in seven games for Serbia at the FIBA U17 World Cup in Istanbul, Turkey, shooting 46.8% from the field and 72.9% from the free-throw line, including a team-high 37 points in Serbia’s loss to the U.S. in Sunday’s gold-medal game.
He was named the tournament’s best defensive player and earned all-star honors after leading his team with 16 steals and 12 blocks.
Competing in Spain’s U22 league during the 2025-26 season, Kusturica averaged 13.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 19 games and scored in double digits 16 times.
Last year, Kusturica was named the most valuable player of the FIBA U16 EuroBasket tournament in Tbilisi, Georgia, after averaging 20 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.
He led Serbia to its first U16 EuroBasket title since 2007, contributing 18 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists and five steals in a 99-86 victory over Lithuania in the finals.
One person clearly influential in UCLA’s recruitment was Yogi Jovanovic, UCLA’s director of international recruiting and an assistant coach. Like Kusturica, Jovanovic is Serbian and has been coach of the country’s U20 national team and is on track to be an assistant coach for Serbia’s Olympic team during the 2028 Games in Los Angeles.
Grinvalds also signed a grant-in-aid agreement. The 6-7 forward competed for Real Madrid in Spain’s Liga ACB.
Two months ago at the U18 Adidas Next Generation Tournament in Greece, the 18-year-old averaged 12 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists in six games with Real Madrid.
“Gunars can really shoot the ball at an elite level,” Cronin said. “We like that he has good size at his position. Gunars is interested in his development and continued improvement as a player. We believe he is a great fit here at UCLA as he’s an excellent student and a very hard worker.”
“We assess it is likely that Russian-linked vessels and the ‘shadow fleet’ were used as launch/recovery platforms for UAVs as part of the Kremlin’s wider unconventional war on Europe,” the report added.
This report assesses that it is highly likely the Kremlin conducted a coordinated Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) campaign over Europe between August 2024 and February 2026, spanning a dozen NATO states and Ireland.
Investigators rely heavily on circumstantial evidence and open-source information. TWZ cannot independently confirm these findings, which offer new insights, if not concrete answers, about who could have been behind the flights.
The drone incursions over the bases we were the first to write about were among the earliest in the wave over Europe investigated by IISS. Around this same time, there were also flights over Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the report notes. We covered those incidents as well.
As we reported at the time, drones of an unknown origin were first spotted over RAF Lakenheath and then over RAF Fairford, RAF Feltwell, and RAF Mildenhall.
RAF Lakenheath. (Google Earth)
The report makes particular note of the importance of RAF Lakenheath, which is being readied to host nuclear weapons, a topic we previously covered.
“A public appeal for information drew roughly 170 reported sightings, about half of which were deemed credible, either corroborated by multiple witnesses or backed by imagery that couldn’t be explained away as ordinary air traffic.”
“Operational security appeared sophisticated,” IISS posited. “The UAVs entered the airspace around the RAF bases at low altitude with their lights visible and departed at higher altitudes. Arrival and departure directions varied across the incident period.”
Witness reports “indicate more than one platform type may have been involved,” the report proffers. “Some observations were consistent with multirotor UAVs; others with fixed-wing platforms. The propulsion noise of the UAVs was inconsistent across accounts, with some observers describing sounds more typical of petrol engines than electric motors.”
“Notably, the Hav Dolphin, a vessel later linked to a 2025 drone incident in Germany, happened to be docked in the UK at the time,” the investigators found.
That vessel was one of many either operated by Russia as part of its so-called “dark fleet” of sanctioned ships, or those connected to Russia, that the report goes into great detail to link to drone incursions throughout Europe after the incidents at U.S. bases there. The report describes these vessels as “Russian-linked commercial vessels, including shadow-fleet tankers, coastal freighters, and smaller craft.”
IISS
IISS suggested that the Russian Orlan-10 drone could have been one of the platforms used during the incursions.
“Orlan-10, a compact, multi-purpose UAV in service with Russian Armed Forces since 2010, has a range and payload profile consistent with stand-off collection against coastal and inland targets and fits the deck space of a mid-sized commercial vessel,” IISS stated.
“Commercial specifications for the platform, including those published by Russian geospatial firms using the Orlan-10 for civilian aerial survey operations, document an operational range of 500 kilometers, endurance of up to 12 hours, and speeds of 90–130 km/h, performance parameters consistent with maritime launch from a vessel operating well beyond visual detection range of the European coastlines in question.”
Moreover, “the Orlan-10’s power is an internal combustion engine, a detail that may be relevant in light of witness accounts from November 2024 incidents at RAF Lakenheath, where propulsion noise was described by some observers as more characteristic of petrol engines than the electric motors typical of consumer and first-person view (FPV) drones.”
In addition, the Orlan-10’s available payloads “include a satellite navigation spoofing module and a Global System for Mobile Communications network monitoring module alongside optical and thermal sensors, indicating the Orlan-10 family has active electronic warfare capability as well as passive ISR.”
The Orlan-10 has been widely used as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drone by Russia in its ongoing war on Ukraine. Given that, however, using it for a clandestine operation like this seems very strange. The report critically recognizes this, stating “the use of identifiable Russian UAV platforms carries inherent attribution risk.”
“An alternative, and operationally credible, hypothesis is that commercially available or modified platforms were used precisely to preserve deniability, including long-range [first-person view] FPV systems, home-built fixed-wing aircraft or commercial UAVs modified to use cellular rather than radio frequency (RF) communications,” IISS added.
Russia uses ‘Orlan-10’ drones to help detect and attack Ukrainian military positions
The think tank acknowledges that its maritime-launch hypothesis “rests on a convergence of opportunity, demonstrated capability and a consistent geographic pattern — but no European government has yet publicly tied a specific shadow-fleet vessel to a specific incident, despite officials suggesting privately that they could. The rest of this report treats the maritime-UAV link as the most plausible explanation for where and when the incidents occurred, while acknowledging that confirming it will require evidence that isn’t yet public.”
IISS
This is not the first time Russia was accused of being behind the drone incursions.
That investigation spurred some politicians to call for further investigation.
“Julian Lewis, the former Tory Chair of the Defense Select Committee said: ‘When the US and British authorities detected the drone intrusions at both airbases last November, they stated that investigations were underway,’” the outlet reported. “‘Meanwhile, there is credible evidence here of the possible presence of GRU-linked operatives near Lakenheath and Mildenhall. I shall be asking Ministers to consolidate the findings of all these investigations and to make a Statement in the Commons as soon as possible.’”
Tom Tugendhat, the former Security Minister, told Thei Paper that the findings “demand urgent investigation by the MOD and UK intelligence services.”
Less clear are results from investigations into the other three bases involved.
“The UK takes the security of military bases seriously and works closely with allies, law enforcement partners and other authorities to protect Defense people, sites and capabilities,” the U.K. MoD told us Thursday morning when we asked about the allegations made by IISS that the Russians were likely behind the drone incursions and for their assessment of who was operating them.
“Through the Armed Forces Bill, we’re giving our defense personnel greater powers to defeat drones threatening our bases and we have invested significantly in counter-drone capabilities. We continue to strengthen our ability to detect, deter and respond to potential threats,” MoD added.
MoD declined to provide further details, saying it “does not comment on intelligence matters or on the specific security arrangements at Defense sites.”
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon from the 555th Fighter Squadron, Aviano Air Base, Italy, taxis out to the runway in preparation for takeoff for a training flight prior to the start of Cobra Warrior 24-2 at Royal Air Force Mildenhall, England, Sept. 11, 2024. (U.S. Air Force photo by Karen Abeyasekere Karen Abeyasekere
We also asked U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa (USAFE) whether the IISS allegations about Russian involvement in these events were accurate.
“We can confirm small Unmanned Aerial Systems activity took place over several of our UK installations in 2024,” a spokesperson told us. “These events were monitored, and it was determined there was no impact on personnel or operations.”
“Due to operational security, we cannot speak to intelligence matters,” the spokesperson added. “We continue to work closely with our UK partners to ensure the safety and security of our installations.”
The command said it is working on a response to our question about who was behind these incursions, but that it would not be ready before the July 4 holiday.
The IISS report does not go into any of the cases outside of Europe. It does, however, clearly point the finger at Russia as the culprit behind the drone overflights that have bedeviled Europe, including U.S. bases in England and Germany.
EastEnders have welcomed back a familiar face, but fans fear this will lead to dangerous scenes for Chelsea and Jordan Fox after they survived serial killer Gray Atkins
EastEnders welcomes back familiar face
A familiar face has come back to EastEnders – and it spells trouble for Chelsea and Jordan Fox. Chelsea’s sister Libby, played by Belinda Owusu, has returned Walford after hearing about her mother Denise’s cancer diagnosis, but while many were happy to see her, it wasn’t long before she and Chelsea started bickering.
They argued about many things, starting with whether Chelsea should have noticed Denise was ill and called Libby earlier. Soon, the conversation turned to Chelsea’s son Jordan, who was recently in a car accident and may not be able to walk again. As Chelsea broke down, Libby comforted her sister. But, again, their peace with each other didn’t last long.
Libby pushed Chelsea to open up more and fill her in on what was going on. As such, Chelsea revealed that she had received a birthday card for Jordan from his great-grandmother, Sheila, along with a cheque for £1000.
When asked why she hadn’t cashed it, Chelsea said she didn’t want anyone connected to her ex husband Gray, Jordan’s father who was abusive and killed multiple people, involved in her son’s life, in case they were still in contact with Gray. The murderer, who was also physically abusive towards Chelsea, is currently in prison for his crimes. Since Sheila is Gray’s grandmother, Chelsea didn’t want to risk her being involved.
But, Libby later took the card, with the cheque inside. Fans were unsure what Libby planned to do with it, but some felt that if she cashed the cheque, this would put Chelsea and Jordan in danger.
One floated the idea that Libby planned to cash the cheque: “First episode back and Libby has already just slotted in like shes been back for ages, although if she does end up cashing the check I hope its actually to help Jordan and not another ‘I’m in debt and need to pay someone off’ storyline again.”
Another added: “Well I hope not since she did say she was willing to give Chelsea money for Jordan’s wheelchair and other stuff so I doubt they writers will make her do that considering what she said today.
“I also hope before she cashes it in she discusses it with Chelsea first because at the end of the day it’s gonna affect Jordan and Chelsea since it’s gonna be from her ex partner’s family and who knows they might still be in touch with him so it could potentially put both Jordan and Chelsea at risk but that’s just my opinion.
“So I hope she discusses it with Chelsea before doing anything bc if I was Chelsea I’m not sure how comfortable I would feel either taking money from my abusive ex’s family.”
A third added that they thought this could lead to a custody battle that puts Gray back in Jordan’s life: “I really hope she talks to Chelsea too, because if she cashes the cheque, Gray’s family could use to suggest that they take over Jordan’s care entirely – they’re already paying and they’ll say Chelsea let him get hurt.
“And if they have custody, they might take him to see Gray, which isn’t safe for anyone, especially Chelsea when she tries to get Jordan back.”
Belinda Owusu, who plays Libby, has already teased that her return to the Square leads to tough scenes for Chelsea, and what will happen with the cheque. She said: “With Chelsea overwhelmed by Jordan’s care and the financial strain, Libby sees it as potential support. She’s torn – she respects Chelsea’s boundaries but also believes it could offer some relief.”