Gruesome

Faced by an increasingly authoritarian regime, Venezuela’s opposition requested support from international organizations over the years, denouncing human rights violations and showing evidence of the 2024 electoral fraud orchestrated by Nicolás Maduro and the chavista overlords. The international community’s answer only gave the government breathing space. The lack of decisive responses from global institutions, such as the Organization of American States, the United Nations, and the European Union contributed to a state of irresolution and prolonged political violence in Venezuela, while political imprisonment and disappearances became commonplace. 

Political change in Venezuela has ultimately come to depend on Trump’s geopolitical ambitions. Rather than returning to the now-exhausted democratic avenues offered by multilateral institutions, opposition leader María Corina Machado has made efforts to align her political agenda with Trump’s commercial interests and military might. Her dedication of the Nobel Peace Prize to him only highlights this strategic alignment, along with Machado’s willingness to publicly support US military deployment if this helps her cause against the dictatorship. 

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has also aligned her political agenda with Trump’s. She has not only agreed to satisfy all of Trump’s oil-related demands—even before Maduro’s capture—but everything indicates that she might have been the one who facilitated her boss’ extraction in exchange for power. 

However, both Machado and Rodríguez have paid a high price for dancing at the tune of Trump’s desires. Machado has been criticized around the world for giving her Nobel Prize medal to Trump and mocked as a weak political actor. On the other hand, Rodríguez seems to be walking on an increasingly tight rope, as seemingly demonstrated by the powerful interior minister Diosdado Cabello’s threatening appearance next to her on national television wearing a hat that read ‘dudar es traición’ (to doubt is betrayal). 

‘We’ve tried everything,’ many of our interviewees conclude in frustration.

The pivotal role that Venezuelan politicians like Rodríguez, Machado and even chavista hardliners like Cabello played in US plans for Venezuela demonstrates the inadequacy of considering US actions as a unilateral imposition of Trump’s agenda. As sociologist Rafael Uzcátegui argues, Venezuela’s current politics cannot be understood in the Cold War dualistic light of imperialism vs. self-determination that likens politics to a game of chess. Instead, it is more like a game of poker, where the best hand may not always be the one to win. Machado and Rodríguez are playing their best hand, which involves aligning themselves with US commercial interests and military might to survive politically in a context of weakening international law.

What Venezuelans think

In the process of writing this article, we spoke to Venezuelans in the US and back home. Most expressed their frustration in the face of the international community’s inability to support democracy in their country. ‘We’ve tried everything,’ many of our interviewees conclude in frustration.

The Venezuelans we spoke with perceive Trump’s military pressure as the first tangible movement against the dictatorship, leaving many feeling that they have little choice but to endorse US actions to end Maduro’s rule. Fully aware of US interests in the nation’s oil, Venezuelans’ calculation is shaped by a longer history in which the country’s most valuable asset has rarely served the interests of its people. As Venezuelans see it, Trump’s thirst for oil at least helps their democratic cause. So, rather than imperialism, Trump’s commercial ambitions are seen by Venezuelans as an avenue for change. 

Pedro, a Venezuelan business owner in Doral, Florida, told us: ‘If the price for my country to be safe and have food is to give away our oil, so be it. Please, Mr Trump, come and take our oil.’ For Venezuelans like Pedro, who are aware of the regime’s political brutality, the image of a cuffed and blindfolded Maduro has a taste of justice. 

Even Amanda, a Venezuelan student in New York who once supported Chávez and disagrees with how Maduro was arrested, admits to feeling satisfaction at finally seeing justice served. Following the capture, many Venezuelans across the world took to the streets to show their cautious hope for political change.

While the future in Venezuela is still uncertain, the fact that change could only be attained by violence, further erodes a global culture of democracy and trust in international law.

In Venezuela, however, the reality is more complex. The regime continues to operate with its mechanisms for social repression. Fear of expressing any form of celebration inside the country is strong, as it might lead to charges of treason. ‘We are happy, of course,’ one of our interviewees in Caracas told us. ‘But I don’t even dare to hang a flag outside my window.’ 

Alignment for political survival

Tragically, US (not-so-chirurgical) military action has achieved more in a few weeks than what democratic international institutions achieved in Venezuela over the last decade. Catering to Trump’s pressure, Maduro slowly started releasing political prisoners in December. Since January 8, Delcy Rodríguez has ramped up the number of releases, currently amounting to over 260, something unthinkable before the US military build-up in the Caribbean. Whether or not these releases are a regime’s farce, as some relatives of prisoners warn, they still reveal the fact that Rodríguez is willing to dance to Trump’s tune.

While the future in Venezuela is still uncertain, the fact that change could only be attained by violence, further erodes a global culture of democracy and trust in international law. The lesson that Maduro’s capture might teach the international community is that, in Trump’s new world order, international law is insufficient to secure political survival, and that military force and commercial expansion always prevail.

Machado and Rodríguez seem to have learned this gruesome lesson, although they have yet to disclose their full hand in this ruthless game of poker.