SACRAMENTO — Deals to add up to 17,000 slot machines at four Southern California tribal casinos passed the Legislature on Thursday, setting the stage for giant casinos with twice as many slots as the biggest in Las Vegas.
Within minutes, union leaders raised the possibility of mounting a repeal campaign.
The Assembly passed compacts that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger struck last year with four wealthy tribes, along with a side agreement addressing child support, gambling addiction, workers’ compensation, accounting and arbitration issues.
Under the deals, which Schwarzenegger has signed, the state will get between 15% and 25% of the revenue from the additional machines, possibly bringing in half a billion dollars a year.
Organized labor had unsuccessfully sought to include requirements that tribes not punish or harass workers for trying to organize. Unions had also sought language allowing a union to bargain for workers if more than 50% of employees signed authorization cards.
Jack Gribbon, California political director for Unite Here, a union that organizes casino and hotel workers, said he and other union leaders are considering asking voters to undo the agreements. To qualify a repeal measure for next February’s presidential primary ballot would probably require gathering 400,000 signatures in 90 days, he said.
“The discussions are very serious,” Gribbon said.
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles), a former labor organizer, said unions placed an “undue burden” on him with the provisions they sought.
“I did not negotiate the compacts,” he said. “The governor negotiated the compacts.”
Tribes given the right to expand are the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians, which owns casinos in Palm Springs and Rancho Mirage; the Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians in Temecula; the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation in San Diego County; and the Morongo Band of Mission Indians in Cabazon.
A compact between the governor and the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians of San Bernardino County did not pass the Legislature. Nunez’s office said that was because the tribe refused to sign the side agreement insisted upon by the speaker.
The Assembly also gave final approval Thursday to a compact allowing the Yurok tribe of Northern California to install 99 slot machines. The tribe is among the state’s largest, and one of the poorest.
Pakistan’s infrastructure narrative over the past few years has been painfully instructive. Investments meant to connect markets and power industry have sometimes deepened vulnerability because climate risk and ecological limits were treated as afterthoughts. The scale of recent shocks is no longer anecdote. The catastrophic 2022 floods affected roughly 33 million people and left millions homeless, and the country is again reeling from extraordinary monsoon events in 2025 that, by mid-September, had displaced millions, damaged vast tracts of farmland (2.5 million acres in Punjab alone) and killed hundreds, with some reports putting the affected population in the millions and death tolls approaching the high hundreds. These are not distant statistics but the reality behind submerged villages, broken irrigation, and shattered livelihoods across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh.
These floods are compounded by mountain hazards: glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) this summer in Gilgit-Baltistan destroyed scores of homes in several villages and briefly formed large, newly emergent lakes that severed roads and tourism circuits in fragile mountain economies. The visible loss of homes, guesthouses and the thin economic base of high-altitude communities illustrates how poorly planned transport and tourism infrastructure can multiply the harm of climate-driven glacier changes.
The thermal extremes of 2025 added a second front. Heatwaves pushed many urban centres and rural plains into temperature ranges far above seasonal norms, April 2025 was the second-hottest April in 65 years, with national mean temperature about 3.37°C above historical standard, daytime highs exceeding norms by 4.66°C, and Shaheed Benazirabad reaching 49°C. Heat stress has direct impacts on labour productivity, public health and the viability of energy systems, spiking demand at exactly the moment supply is least secure. The return of La Niña this winter poses another test of Pakistan’s resilience, as shifting temperature and rainfall patterns will once again reveal how exposed communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure remain to a changing climate. In short, Pakistan is experiencing compound hazards, heat stress, glacial instability, and unusually intense rainfall that together convert ordinary infrastructure failures into humanitarian catastrophes.
Why do these predictable collisions between people, nature and climate still happen? Why are the same infrastructure fail-points recurring? What good is growth if it washes away each year? Why villages again suffer loss, why roads wash away, why power systems falter and why communities bear the worst harm? The patterns are familiar: inadequate spatial planning that ignores biodiversity and hydrology, weak enforcement of EIAs and social safeguards, faulty compensation and resettlement processes that leave families poorer and more exposed, and infrastructure designed to historical standards rather than future climates.
Since most of the infrastructure is still built with the old climate baseline in mind, monsoon design storms, flood embankments, drainage systems calibrated for decades-old rainfall intensities. As rainfall intensifies, drainage and bridges collapse; hydraulic structures (culverts, flood bypasses) are undersized. Embankments along rivers like the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are overtopped or breached because they were not upgraded to accommodate altered flow regimes, upstream glacial melt, or enhanced rainfall due to La Niña cycles. Recent floods showed how urban drainage systems and river embankments, often built or altered without integrated watershed assessments, were overwhelmed. Releases from upstream reservoirs and poorly coordinated transboundary water management also amplified downstream impacts. Building dams and roads without resilience is no longer progress; it is policy myopia. Where accountability is thin and safeguards are procedural rather than substantive, projects proceed on convenience rather than resilience, and the poorest pay the price.
There is, however, a pragmatic path forward if we align tools, policy and practice. Practical screening tools, the Climate Risk Screening Tool (CRST) to assess exposure and vulnerability across sectors and regions, the Pakistan Climate Information Portal (PCIP) for localized climate projections and hazard mapping, and the Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR) to track and align financial flows with climate priorities, must be institutionalized into corridor-level planning and project appraisal so that environmental risk is not an advisory footnote but a gating criterion. Infrastructure corridors must be routed to avoid ecological risk zones, embankments upgraded, drainage scaled for extreme rainfall. Finance and contracts must include enforceable safeguards and compensation for those displaced or harmed. Integrating these tools within Pakistan’s emerging climate governance framework, guided by URAAN’s Environment & Climate Change pillar, will ensure assessments translate into actionable, accountable, and climate-aligned planning.
China’s role in Pakistan’s infrastructure landscape is already shifting the technical terms of that conversation. Recent investments and technology transfers have supplied cheap solar modules, wind equipment and battery storage that are rapidly changing Pakistan’s energy mix. Solar already supplied a substantial share, 25% of Pakistan’s utility-supplied electricity, of grid electricity in early 2025. Some road and hydropower projects are now being planned with higher flood levels in mind, more robust drainage, and designs that anticipate glacial-lake outburst risks. Chinese firms are also financing and building large transmission and storage projects that, if governed with green conditionality, can reduce reliance on fossil fuels and improve energy resilience. The leverage here is policy: using preferential finance and partnership to insist on climate-proof designs, environmental management plans, local content for green jobs, and decommissioning/redesign clauses that prevent stranded assets under accelerating climate change. Evidence of large Chinese-backed renewables, storage pilots and green energy deals suggests opportunity, but success will depend on domestic governance and procurement rules that prioritize sustainability over short-term cost savings.
Social and regulatory failures compound the damage. If Pakistan is to move from reactive disaster response to proactive resilience, we must redesign how infrastructure is conceived: SEAs and EIAs must be strategic and enforceable, not pro forma; decision-making criteria should explicitly value ecosystem services, social equity and future climate scenarios; and corridor planning should integrate nature-based solutions, wetland restoration for flood attenuation, reforestation for slope stability, and mangrove expansions to protect coasts, alongside hard infrastructure. Equally important is finance architecture that links green bonds, concessional Chinese and multilateral finance, and private investment to verifiable environmental and social performance. These are practical reforms, not theoretical ideals: they change engineering specifications, procurement clauses and contract supervision in ways that reduce risk and cost over the asset’s life.
Nature is not a blocker to housing growth and the government risks missing both its housing and nature targets if it views it as one, a cross-party group of MPs has warned in a new report.
The Planning and Infrastructure Bill overrides existing habitat protections, which the government has suggested is a barrier to its target to build 1.5 million houses by the end of this parliament.
But in a report published on Sunday, the Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) found the measures outlined in the bill are not enough to allow the government to meet its goals.
“Using nature as a scapegoat means that the government will be less effective at tackling some of the genuine challenges facing the planning system,” the report said.
A Ministry of Housing spokesperson said it was fixing a failing system with landmark reforms, which would deliver a win-win for the economy and the environment.
The Labour government has promised to build 1.5 million new homes in England by 2029 as part of efforts to solve the housing crisis and boost economic growth.
If passed, the draft legislation, which is currently making its way through the final stages in parliament, would instead allow developers to make general environmental improvements and pay into a nature restoration fund that improves habitats on other sites.
But the EAC has argued that nature is not a “blocker” to delivering housing – it is a necessity for building resilient neighbourhoods.
The EAC urged the government to instead focus on addressing a skills shortage in ecology, planning and construction.
“The government must not veer down the path of viewing nature as an inconvenience or blocker to housebuilding,” the report said.
“In most cases, housing delivery is delayed or challenged due to unclear and conflicting policies, land banking and skills shortages.”
The EAC suggested offering people better incentives to build and live in “carbon-friendly homes”, or to retrofit existing ones.
It outlined a series of recommendations aimed at boosting manufacturing viability of green construction products and alter the tax burden to support eco-friendly homes.
Environmental group Friends of the Earth said the government needed to set the right priorities.
Paul De Zylva, nature campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: “This report shows that the Planning & Infrastructure Bill is bad legislation that neither provides the quality homes people need nor truly protects our already depleted nature.
“Instead of attacking newts, bats and our nature laws to justify its growth-at-any-cost agenda, the government would be better focusing on delivering against its legal targets for nature which are at risk of being missed.”
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government said: “The Government inherited a failing system that delayed new homes and infrastructure while doing nothing for nature’s recovery.
“We are fixing this with landmark reforms, including the Nature Restoration Fund, that will create a win-win for the economy and the environment.
“This will get Britain building the 1.5 million homes we desperately need to restore the dream of homeownership, and not at the expense of nature.”
When e-commerce company Jumia wanted to go public in 2019, Africa’s most celebrated start-up didn’t list in Lagos, Nairobi, Kigali or Johannesburg. It went to New York instead. That tells you everything about Africa’s start-up problem: It’s not a money problem; it’s an exit problem.
African entrepreneurs can build world-class businesses, but investors hesitate because they cannot see how or when they will get their money back. Initial public offerings (IPOs) remain extremely rare, and most exits take the form of trade sales – often unpredictable and slow to clear. Our stock exchanges offer little comfort either with liquidity outside the largest firms still limited.
Start-ups here can remain “start-ups” for decades with no clear path to maturity.
By contrast, Silicon Valley hums along because everyone knows the playbook: build fast, scale up and within five to seven years either list on an exchange or get acquired. Investors know they will not be stuck forever. That certainty, not just the capital, drives the flow of billions.
If Africa wants its tech ecosystems to thrive, we need a parallel play alongside any new funds. Yes, let’s mobilise sovereign wealth, pensions, banks and guarantees. But equally, let’s change the rules of the game. Let’s build an exit clarity framework that gives investors confidence.
That means fast-track “growth IPO lanes” on our exchanges with lighter costs and simpler disclosures. It means standardised merger templates that guarantee regulatory reviews within clear time limits.
It means regulated secondary markets where early investors and employees can sell shares before an IPO.
It means modernising employee stock ownership rules so talent can build wealth too.
And it means creating anchor-exit facilities where big domestic players like South Africa’s Public Investments Corporation or IDC commit to buy into IPOs with risk-sharing from development partners.
The evidence shows why these matter. More than 80 percent of startup funding in Africa comes from abroad. African unicorns are overwhelmingly funded by foreign venture capital, with several having foreign co-founders or being incorporated outside the continent. This means exits and wealth creation largely flow offshore. When global shocks hit, whether interest rate hikes in Washington or political turmoil in Europe, our ventures shake.
On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, small-cap boards make up only a sliver of daily trading activity, underscoring how limited liquidity is outside the blue chips.
In Kenya, the Growth Enterprise Market Segment, set up to serve fast-growing firms, has struggled to gain traction with only five companies currently listed as of 2024 – more than a decade after its 2013 launch.
To be sure, there are those who will argue that exits already exist: Trade sales are happening, holding periods in Africa are shorter than in many markets and capital is trickling in regardless.
That is true, but partial. Trade sales can be an option, but they are often unpredictable. Regulatory approvals take time, and deal terms are not always transparent enough for investors to build them confidently into their models.
This is not a system that inspires confidence from our own pension funds or sovereign wealth managers.
The response, then, is not to simply wait for more money to arrive but to fix the structures that govern its movement. If we could walk into investor meetings and say, “Here’s the pipeline of companies. Here’s the capital vehicle, and here is a clear five-year exit pathway,” we could shift the conversation entirely.
We could make African innovation not only attractive to foreign investors but also bankable for African ones. South Africa is uniquely positioned to lead this change. It has deep capital markets, capable regulators and institutional pools of capital looking for new growth opportunities.
The ask is not just to invest in start-ups but to invest in a new rulebook that makes exits real. If we succeed, we will have built more than another fund. We will have built a system that recycles African savings into African innovation, creating African wealth.
For too long, the debate has been framed around scarcity of money. But the truth is less about scarcity and more about certainty. Investors do not only chase returns. They chase predictable exits. Without exits, funds hesitate. With exits, funds multiply.
So, yes, let us mobilise capital and launch new funds. But let us also do the harder, braver thing: change the rules, not just the money. That is how we ensure our unicorns aren’t built on foreign capital alone. That is how we give our own savers and pensioners a stake in Africa’s growth.
And that is how we finally write a new playbook under which African innovation, African capital and African ownership all run on the same page because, in the end, the real lesson of Jumia is not that Africa cannot produce billion-dollar start-ups. It is that until we change the rules of exit, we risk exporting the wealth that should be owned and grown at home.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.
HomeExecutive InterviewsBeltone’s Khalil El Bawab On Challenges And Growth In MENA Financial Services
Beltone is a financial services group with 24 diversified funds and more than 100,000 clients. Khalil El Bawab, CEO of the Local & Regional Markets Division, shares the firm’s growth plans and challenges with Global Finance.
Beltone began in Cairo in 2002 as an asset management firm. In 2022, it was acquired by Emirati Chimera Investment, part of Abu Dhabi-based IHC. Since then, Beltone has completed two record capital increases—EGP 10 billion (about $210 million) in 2023, which at the time was the largest in Egyptian Exchange (EGX) history, and EGP 10.5 billion in 2025, which is now the record for the largest all-cash capital increase on the EGX. Today, Beltone is part of IHC’s new entity, 2PointZero, alongside eight other companies.
Global Finance: How is Beltone Holding currently structured?
Khalil El Bawab: Beltone is a fully fledged institution offering a wide range of services, including investment banking, brokerage, asset management, and custody services. Additionally, Beltone provides various non-banking financial services such as leasing, factoring, consumer and mortgage finance, SME finance, and microfinance. The organization also has a venture capital company that invests in startups through equity and venture debt. Beyond finance, Beltone has expanded into non-financial sectors, with businesses like Robin, which offers Data Science and AI solutions; Beltone Academy, focused on training and development; and Magnet, a human resources consultancy.
GF: What is your approach to the client’s needs?
Bawab: Traditionally, financial services were about selling products. However, amid the market’s emerging financial literacy levels, we shifted our focus on redefining the need. At Beltone, we pinpoint other needs for the clients and then we engineer tailored products around them. Here again, the approach is fully data-driven. For example, clients might not be aware of how to maximize their returns by moving their investments around between equities, fixed income products, precious metal funds, and other channels. Once the investor becomes aware of these diverse offerings and is aware of the ease of investing with Beltone, their need is redefined and met with a tailored portfolio of investing options. Credibility comes not from pushing the highest-commission product, but from ensuring that 5, 10, or 15 years later, clients can say they fulfilled their needs.
GF: How is the regulatory landscape supporting Beltone’s growth?
Bawab: The asset management industry in Egypt changed significantly in 2018. Before then, only banks and insurance companies could issue or sponsor funds. The new regulations allowed asset managers and investment banks to launch their own funds and brokerage firms to act as placement agents. This is a true milestone for the industry, allowing financial service providers to bridge the gap in terms of physical barriers, paperwork, and user experience for clients looking to invest.
Then, issuing a fund could take up to a year; now it takes just a very few days. Since then, more than 50 new funds have started, and that has completely changed the market. Also, the financial regulatory authority issued the FinTech License, which allows digital onboarding, including e-signatures and e-contracts, to help attract more investors to the market, effectively taking the market to new levels.
GF: You manage a large number of funds–why so many?
Bawab: We currently manage 24 funds, including 15 for banks, and plan to launch 5–6 more. All our funds have zero subscription or redemption fees — no entry or exit barriers. The market sees us as simply launching fund after fund, but it’s a conscious strategy and preparation for our upcoming wealth management application.
Today, we already offer the Beltone Trade App — the only investment bank-owned app not tied to a bank, giving qualified investors direct access to equities, fixed income products, and mutual funds. In early 2026, we’ll launch a second app that goes beyond robo-advisory. Clients will be digitally onboarded, complete a risk profiling exercise, and receive personalized advice on the optimal allocation for their investments. It could be single investments or incremental, with standard settlement instructions every month… I’m not concerned which channel the clients go to, but I want to equip them with the right tools to choose the products that best fit their needs.
GF: Who are the clients that you’re targeting?
Bawab: Generation Alpha. The ones who live on smartphones — they research everything and don’t want to interact with any human being. In fact, studies show people would rather visit the dentist than go to a bank! Egyptian law now allows 15-year-olds to open bank accounts and invest in the stock market. Our goal is to incentivize this generation early, with incremental investment plans matched by their guardians up to a limit. By starting at 15, we’re preparing the next driving force of our client base for the coming 10–15 years.
GF: Sounds like you are facing a huge financial literacy challenge.
Bawab: Sure, but you have it at all ages, and overall financial literacy in Egypt is improving rapidly. We are seeing tremendous growth in the number of new entrants opening brokerage accounts or participating in the stock market & mutual funds. We are still behind international standards, but our market growth is outpacing global benchmarks in terms of market participation. This is a collective effort that everybody is working on. The focus now is on making investing simpler and more accessible — and our upcoming wealth management app is designed to be exactly that: super simple and straightforward.
Netflix on Wednesday touted a surge in popularity for its low-cost streaming plan with ads, as it looks to tap into the lucrative the world of brands.
The streaming giant said it now has more than 190 million monthly active viewers watching ads through a plan that costs $7.99 a month. The lowest cost ad-free plan costs $17.99 a month.
However, the Los Gatos, Calif.-based company is now using a different methodology to measure its audience watching ads, making exact comparison’s difficult.
Netflix now defines monthly active viewers as customers who watched at least 1 minute of ads on Netflix per month. It then multiplies that by the estimated average number of people in a household. Previously, Netflix had measured monthly active users based on the number of Netflix profiles watching content with ads.
The streamer said its previous measurement didn’t illustrate all the people who were in the room watching.
“Our move to viewers means we can give a more comprehensive count of how many people are actually on the couch, enjoying our can’t-miss series, films, games and live events with friends and family,”wrote Amy Reinhard, Netflix’s president of advertising in a post on the streamer’s website on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, Netflix executives said the growth in ad viewers was in line with their expectations.
“We are very satisfied with where we are at,” Reinhard, said in a press briefing. “We think there is a lot of opportunity to grow on this plan around the world, and we’re going to continue to make sure that we are offering our customers a great experience and a great buying experience on the advertising side.”
Netflix began its foray into ad-supported streaming in 2022, after it received pressure from investors to diversify how it makes revenue. Previously, Netflix mainly made money through subscriptions and for many years had been ad-adverse.
The company said last month it was on track to more than double its ad revenue in 2025, but did not cite specific figures. Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters said in an earnings presentation in October that the ad revenue is still small relative to the size of the company’s subscription revenues, but advertisers are excited about Netflix’s growing scale.
“We see plenty of room for growth ahead,” Peters said.
On Wednesday, Netflix said it is expanding its options for advertisers, including demographic targeting in areas such as education, marital status and household income.
Netflix also said it has partnered with brands including brewing company Peroni Nastro Azzurro in ads for its romantic comedy series “Emily in Paris,” and tested dynamic ad insertion with programs including WWE Raw this quarter and will offer that feature in the U.S. and other countries for NFL Christmas Gameday.
Thawing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey are creating opportunities for Armenia to expand its economy and emerge as a regional investment hub.
The South Caucasus has hardly seemed an ideal place for investment in recent years. Azerbaijan’s successful military campaign to gain control over the ethnic Armenian-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh within its borders in September 2023, forced about 110,000 residents to flee to Armenia. Georgia, once a poster child for reform with the area’s most diversified economy, has turned away from the west; its application to join the EU is suspended and tensions have run high since last fall’s disputed elections.
Unexpectedly, it is Armenia—landlocked, with 3 million people and able to export only through Georgia since its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently closed—that has emerged as the region’s bright spot.
Between 2022 and 2024, GDP grew by an annual 9%, and while the pace has slowed, growth remains well above most similar economies, with 5% expected this year and 4% next, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Inflation is running at around 3.6%, kept in check by a cautious monetary policy, and FDI is on a rising trend, with expatriate Armenians leading the way.
“Armenia has benefitted from a sizeable inflow of high-skilled immigrants, mainly from Russia,” notes Dmitri Dolgin, chief economist covering Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries at ING Bank, “which has led to higher remittances, stronger activity in financial and IT sectors, and overall stronger domestic demand for consumer goods, services, and real estate.” Finance, IT, construction, and consumer demand-driven sectors have been the main growth drivers, he says.
The capital of Yerevan has been transformed into a regional magnet for startups and digital professionals, fuelling demand across sectors and lifting productivity, says George Akhalkatsi, head of the EBRD’s resident office there.
“The economic surge has been shaped by a unique convergence of external shocks, internal resilience, strategic adaptation, and a remarkable upswing in growth triggered by a wave of migration,” he says, echoing Dolgin’s observation. “This influx brought not only people but also capital, skills, and entrepreneurial energy, especially in tech and services.”
An unexpected thaw in relations with Muslim-majority Azerbaijan could have major economic implications for Christian-majority Armenia, now that their three-decade conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has been resolved.
Tensions ease
Thawing relations between Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, beginning with the latter’s recognition of the reality of Azerbaijan’s decisive military victory, led to a peace agreement being concluded earlier this year. On August 8 the two signed the resulting treaty, overseen by President Donald Trump at the White House.
The accord lays the basis for development of the Zangezur transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, sandwiched between Armenia and Iran, to be managed and developed by US companies working in conjunction with Yerevan. Dubbed TRIPP (Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity), the transit route aims to encourage a wider rapprochement between the two countries and throw open opportunities across the region. One analyst suggested that Armenia could “leverage the corridor to integrate into wider trade networks linking the Persian Gulf, Black Sea and Eurasian corridors, [helping)] diversify its economy, attract FDI, and normalize relations with its neighbors.”
The potential for an upset remains considerable, not least due to Armenia’s concerns about its sovereignty, although the involvement of US companies could partially assuage Yerevan’s fears. Sensitivities run high: when Aliyev used the term Zangezur—which has territorial implications for Armenia—in a press conference, Pashinian’s spokesperson said the “narrative presented cannot in any way pertain to the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Only the TRIPP and Crossroads of Peace projects are being implemented, as clearly stipulated in international documents.”
Such sensitivities matter, with parliamentary elections due next year in Armenia. Also of concern is Russian disquiet about its ally getting too close to Washington; Moscow has a military base in Armenia and supplies most of its energy while the country remains an active member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Observers nevertheless are excited about the possibilities.
“Baku has welcomed US involvement, particularly amid increased tensions with Moscow,” says Tinatin Japaridze, analyst at Eurasia Group. “Meanwhile Yerevan, which had previously expressed reservations about foreign oversight at its checkpoints, has reportedly received assurances that its sovereignty and territorial integrity will be fully respected. Discussions are now underway to select a private operator for the corridor.”
Arvind Ramakrishnan, director and primary rating analyst at Fitch Ratings, which rates Armenia BB- with a stable outlook, points to warming relations between Yerevan and Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, as evidence of a wider change within the region.
“The peace framework sets the stage not just for lasting settlement but also improved relations with Turkey,” he argues. “Pashinian and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan held a summit in Ankara in June, and the Turkish market is a huge opportunity for Armenia. Turks are also keen to invest there.”
Sectors that could benefit from Turkish investment include IT, construction, and finance, and small manufacturing and retail are other likely growth areas. Tourism may also benefit, with Turkish Airlines due to start direct flights between the two countries.
ING’s Dolgin lays out a wider menu of possibilities.
“If the peace process holds,” he suggests, “then logistics, warehousing, trucking/rail services, border services, and trade finance could gain, with positive spillovers to SMEs along east-west supply chains. Reduced uncertainty could also help FDI in light manufacturing and services that leverage Armenia’s skilled labor and diaspora links.” A reduced risk of hostilities could lead some Armenians living abroad to repatriate, along with their capital.
The EBRD notes that shipping via Georgia—Armenia’s main transit route at present—is expensive and slow, and that access to Azeri and Turkish ports through open borders with both countries would be beneficial.
“Armenia’s normalization of relationships with its neighbours is key, and the unblocking of regional trade and energy routes should support this process,” says Akhalkatsi. “Armenia has a great potential when it comes to renewable energy, and we could see significant FDI in solar power generation once there is capacity in the electricity grid to export this excess electricity.”
He points to the development of an AI supercomputing hub in Armenia, a mega project announced in July and valued at over $500 million, which could presage a significant increase in FDI while preparing the ground for further tech-sector development in the country and the wider region.
The EBRD is one of the largest investors in Armenia, with nearly €2.5 billion (about $2.7 billion) committed across 231 projects, 84% of which support the private sector. Earlier this year, it launched a new strategy for the country focused on sustainable infrastructure and the green transition and boosting private-sector competitiveness. The bank is also deploying its flagship Capital Markets Support Programme, supported by the EU, in Armenia.
“The aim is to strengthen Armenia’s local capital markets by supporting corporate issuers of bonds and equity,” says Akhalkatsi. “The program addresses key challenges such as limited expertise in capital market financing and high issuance costs.”
Challenges Ahead
Aside from maximizing opportunities arising from rapprochement with its neighbors, the government faces other, longer term challenges. Among them is unemployment of around 14%, a situation compounded by a skills mismatch due to years of underinvestment in training and the influx of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Integration of these refugees remains a major financial and political challenge.
Energy dependence on Russia is another concern, although plans to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear facility with a new nuclear plant, along with ongoing renewable projects, aim to bolster long-term energy security.
Fitch sees public finances as the main consideration in assessing such plans. “Public debt could hit 60% of GDP by 2030, so any development that slows or reverses this is positive,” says Ramakrishnan. If current hopes are realized, concerns like unemployment, underinvestment, and energy security will recede, he predicts. Lower defense spending would free up monies from the budget while improved relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey bolster trade and investment. Improved public-sector finances would also enable a greater focus on improving the business environment and governance, bolstering FDI across the economy over the long term.
North Africa is emerging as a growth engine, led by Egypt and Morocco. But structural challenges persist.
This year again, North Africa is the fastest growing region in Africa and the Arab world. Combined GDP growth in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya is expected to reach 4% in 2025, compared to 3.9% for the rest of the continent and 2% in the Middle East, according to the International Monetary Fund.
They aim to keep the trend going. Despite differing economic trajectories, the six countries have signed multiple agreements over the years to boost trade. Chronic political tensions have limited the impact of these deals, and North Africa is far from being a unified market. But there is still growth potential.
In 2023, Egypt’s exports to North Africa reached a record $3.5 billion, or 9% of total exports. Trade with Morocco has nearly doubled over the past decade and Libya is Egypt’s largest regional export market, with many Egyptian companies playing a role in the war-torn country’s reconstruction.
In support of corporate activity, many of the region’s local banks have established a cross-border footprint. Attijariwafa Bank, Morocco’s leading institution, operates in Tunisia, Mauritania, and Egypt. Algerian banks have recently expanded into Mauritania and Tunisia’s Banque International Arabe de Tunisie (BIAT) which has offices in Libya.
“Many Tunisian SMEs export to Libya and vice versa, and this sector holds strong growth potential,” says Elyes Jebir, general director of BIAT, Tunisia’s largest bank by assets.
For now, Europe is still the main trading partner for North African countries, but Morocco and Egypt are also increasingly looking south of the Sahara for new ventures.
“Our added value is supplying safe and effective products at an affordable price,” says Seif Yashar Helmy, director of international affairs at Pharco Pharmaceuticals, which ships 20% of its exports—worth $9 million a year—to other parts of Africa and expects strong growth in the coming years thanks to a new line of World Health Organization-approved mRNA vaccine.
Egypt And Morocco Lead The Way
Egypt is by far North Africa’s largest market with a population of over 110 million, half of whom are under 30. The country is emerging from a severe fiscal crisis that almost led to bankruptcy in 2024, but is expected to post a solid 3.8% GDP growth this year, according to the IMF. While the economy relies heavily on foreign support and imports, Cairo, Africa’s largest city, has a strong industrial base across sectors including textiles, food processing, and automotive.
Pharco, Egypt’s leading pharmaceutical maker, produces 1.7 million boxes of drugs a day. During last year’s crisis, it had to scale back some production, but optimism is returning.
“We see the economy picking up, and prospects are good,” says Helmy. Pharco recently invested $350,000 in Medoc, a clinic management startup. “Egypt is underserved in healthcare, be it clinics, polyclinics, laboratories, imagery, and that opens opportunities.”
Recent reforms, including the floating of the Egyptian pound, have helped stabilize the economy and rekindled foreign investors’ interest. Many local companies are seeking new global partners, and a robust pipeline of IPOs is expected on the Egyptian Stock Exchange.
“The laws are becoming more flexible for foreigners to invest, and we see a lot of appetite for foreign direct investment [FDI] coming from Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council,” Helmy notes.
Egypt also boasts some of Africa’s largest banks and most successful financial innovators. Fawry and MNT Halan were among the region’s first fintechs to reach $1 billion valuations. Today, Cairo is one of Africa’s top three fintech hubs, home to hundreds of startups from giants like Paymob to emerging players such as Sahl and Kilivvr.
For fintech entrepreneurs, structural challenges, from low financial literacy to currency devaluation, are creating space for innovation.
Islam Zekry, group CFO and COO, CIB
“There’s a universal problem in our region, which is a lack of foreign currency, combined with rising inflation, shooting consumer price indices, and no investment products,” says Ahmed Amer, CEO of Web3 tech provider EMURGO Labs. “People basically only have two ways of investing their money, either in gold or in real estate.” EMURGO has supported the launch of USDA, a stablecoin regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission that is pegged to the US dollar for trade finance and remittances.
“It’s really important that emerging economies start thinking outside of the box to develop new ways of attracting and preserving capital,” Amer adds.
Traditional banks are moving in the same direction. “We’re investing heavily in building a group-wide data infrastructure, not only in Egypt but across our African footprint,” says Islam Zekry, group CFO and COO at Commercial International Bank (Egypt), the country’s largest private bank. “One clear opportunity lies in streamlining KYC and compliance processes. By creating an integrated data warehouse and sharing verified customer intelligence across our markets, we expect to reduce the cost to serve by 20% to 30%. We aspire to be a platform that attracts capital, connects businesses, and delivers a new standard of banking experiences, all while being proudly rooted in Egypt.”
Morocco is the second pillar of North Africa’s economy. Decades of economic reforms encouraging private sector growth and infrastructure investment have turned the country into an FDI magnet. Today, Morocco is considered one of the best places in Africa to do business, with global giants including Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Siemens, and AstraZeneca setting up factories and regional headquarters in the kingdom. Despite global headwinds, the IMF expects Morocco’s GDP to grow 3.9% this year.
Tunisia Faces Headwings
Other North African countries present a different story.
Mauritania, Algeria, and Libya remain largely shut off, rent-driven economies. In Tunisia, despite years of deep economic and financial turmoil, the government still has not enacted reforms that could unlock IMF support.
Last year, the Central Bank of Tunisia had to step in to bail out the economy, and the IMF projects growth for 2025 at just 1.4%. That said, the banking sector has held up relatively well. In March, Moody’s upgraded Tunisia’s sovereign debt rating to Caa1 from Caa2, citing the central bank’s ability to maintain stable foreign exchange reserves.
“Results for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 demonstrate the resilience of Tunisian banks,” argues BIAT’s Jebir. “I believe we can expect progress in Tunisia’s next reviews, which would have a positive knock-on effect for banks’ ratings. This would enable us to expand further internationally without being constrained.”
Tunisia’s banking model is still largely brick-and-mortar, but modernization efforts are underway. This year, the government passed laws restricting the use of paper checks and encouraging digital payments. Jebir sees an opportunity in the shift.
“We are developing a wide range of digital solutions for both retail and corporate clients,” he says. “At the same time, we are reshaping our branch network into advisory and expertise centers, providing added value beyond the traditional services of a bank.”
A fintech ecosystem is emerging, with startups such as mobile wallet Floucy, but international investors remain cautious.
“It’s tough to operate there,” says Amer, who has supported Tunisian startups in the past. “I mean, it’s very hard to attract FDI when your fiscal and monetary policy doesn’t provide any confidence to the investors, right?”
Looking South
As their own economies improve, North African companies are looking south for expansion, supported by their banks. Moroccan lenders now operate across the continent; Bank of Africa, Attijariwafa, and BCP Group cover more than 25 African countries, from Senegal to Ethiopia. Egyptian banks, including CIB and Banque Misr, are following trade corridors in East Africa using Kenya as a regional base.
“We’re enhancing SME lending through digital partnerships, leveraging the country’s well-developed ecosystem,” says CIB’s Zekry. “We’re also advancing digital channels to scale access and deepen client engagement, reflecting our broader model of localized innovation with regional consistency.”
Zekry also sees growth potential in climate finance. “As we expand across Africa, a significant share of our growth will come from transitional finance, particularly in agricultural and underserved communities. We’re introducing specialized services in these areas, not just as a development goal but because they make strong business sense.”
Cross-border trade, industrial strength, and financial innovation are opening new opportunities throughout North Africa, but structural issues remain. “The potential is massive, but reforms need to continue and the capacity to introduce new technologies will be critical,” Amer observes. If these elements align, North Africa could realize its aspiration to become a strategic hub connecting Europe, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa.
