group stage

History tends to repeat itself at the World Cup. Such is the case with Mexico and South Africa, two teams that will face off in the World Cup opening match for the second time in history, just as they did in Johannesburg on June 11, 2010. The score that night was 1-1.

Many still remember Siphiwe Tshabalala and his powerful shot into the top corner that beat Mexican goalkeeper Óscar Pérez, and a celebration that remains etched in the collective memory of the soccer world. Unfortunately for the South African team that night, Rafa Márquez equalized for El Tri with 11 minutes remaining during what turned out to be a disappointing World Cup for the host nation.

Sixteen years later, the 2026 World Cup kicks off, curiously enough, with the same matchup, but with the roles reversed. Mexico is now the host at Azteca Stadium, known during this competition as Mexico City Stadium, at 7,216 feet above sea level. It will be the third World Cup the venue has hosted.

“It won’t be easy at all,” South Africa coach Hugo Broos said last December upon learning his team would debut against one of the hosts. “It’s a great thing to play in front of 80,000 people. We have nothing to lose.”

Mexico’s Giovani Dos Santos jumps on the back of Rafael Marquez after Mexico scored against South Africa during a World Cup group match on June 11, 2010, in Johannesburg, South Africa.

(Michael Steele / Getty Images)

On the Mexican side, the similarities to 2010 are striking — and not necessarily for the right reasons. Coach Javier Aguirre is back on El Tri’s bench — the same coach who led that campaign in South Africa — which, at first glance, might seem curious, though in practice it reflects the stagnation of a soccer team that has gone eight consecutive World Cups without advancing past the round of 16.

Former Barcelona player Márquez, who scored the equalizer, also remains connected to the national team, now as an assistant coach, with the mandate to take the reins of the team once the Aguirre era concludes after the World Cup. The squad has seen more than a dozen coaches come and go since 2010, including a qualification for Brazil 2014 that nearly ended in tragedy before a goal by the United States rescued the Mexican team and sealed its admission into the tournament.

“Javier [Aguirre] was a firefighter in 2002, he was a firefighter in 2010 and he stepped in as a firefighter again then — it’s the same old story,” said John Sutcliff, a journalist who has covered Mexico for more than 36 years. “[The federation officials] aren’t working in the best interest of the national team. There’s a lot of interest in bringing in foreigners [to the Mexican league] for business purposes and we don’t have players in Europe’s top leagues.”

Mexico’s recent record speaks for itself. It was eliminated in the World Cup round of 16 in 2010 by Argentina, by the Netherlands in 2014, by Brazil in 2018 and failed to even advance past the group stage in Qatar in 2022. Considered the “Giant of CONCACAF,” Mexico has remained dominant in its region since 2010, with five Gold Cups, although it has lost ground to the United States in the Nations League.

Outside the region, its participation in 2010 has been limited mainly to two editions of the Copa América held on U.S. soil, in which it has failed in both, reaching the quarterfinals in 2016 and being eliminated in the group stage in 2024.

“I think it’s been a roller coaster ride over these 16 years; for a moment it seemed like it was making progress, but then there were spectacular crashes,” said Gibrán Araige, a journalist who has followed El Tri through several World Cup cycles.

Mexico’s Raúl Jiménez celebrates with teammates after scoring against Serbia during a friendly at Nemesio Diez Stadium on June 4 in Toluca, Mexico.

(Agustin Cuevas / Getty Images)

For Araige, the level of the 2010 squad is similar to the current one, with players who are not yet established but have solid European experience.

Of the 26 players called up by Aguirre, 10 play in Europe, but few play for elite clubs or get significant playing time on their teams, mostly hampered by injuries, as is the case with Santi Giménez (AC Milan, Italy), César Huerta (Anderlecht, Belgium), Luis Chávez (Dinamo, Russia) and Edson Álvarez (Fenerbahçe, Turkey).

For its part, South Africa has not made significant progress since 2010.

After being eliminated in the group stage, finishing behind Uruguay and Mexico in a tournament held in its own country, it became the first host nation in a World Cup to fail to advance past that stage — a record that Qatar matched in 2022.

Bafana Bafana failed to qualify for the next three World Cups. In fact, this is the first time they have qualified since 2002, as they did not have to qualify in 2010, having hosted the tournament.

They were eliminated as group runners-up behind Ethiopia on the road to Brazil in 2014, they finished last in their group on the road to Russia in 2018 and finished second behind Ghana in the qualifiers for Qatar in 2022.

South African players run during a World Cup training session at Estadio Hidalgo on June 3 in Pachuca, Mexico.

(Manuel Velasquez / Getty Images)

They have also lacked consistency in the Africa Cup of Nations, missing the 2012 and 2017 editions.

Broos, who took over as South Africa’s head coach in 2021, sought to instill discipline and relied on local talent, which was vital in securing a spot in this year’s World Cup. During the qualifying round, South Africa won its group by finishing ahead of Nigeria and advanced despite starting the campaign with a loss due to an ineligible player used in a match against Lesotho.

Broos faced criticism for strategic errors early on, but ultimately built a competitive team that achieved historic qualification, aided by nine direct World Cup spots in the expanded tournament field.

“It’s a truly excellent group of players. We got through a very tough qualifying phase, which I think helped polish the team,” said Mark Gleeson, a journalist specializing in African soccer.

For Gleeson, South Africa missed a major opportunity to strengthen its league by failing to retain investors and wealthy clients after the 2010 World Cup and continued to operate in the same way — a trend reflected in the league’s stagnation and the scarcity of talent playing abroad.

Lwethu Makhanya (Philadelphia Union, USA), Ime Okon (Hannover 96, Germany), Mbekezeli Mbokazi (Chicago Fire, USA), Sphephelo Sithole (CD Tondela, Portugal) and Lyle Foster (Burnley, England) are among the few South African players competing abroad for a national team reliant on domestic soccer.

South Africa huddle during a training session at Estadio Hidalgo on June 3 in Pachuca, Mexico.

(Manuel Velasquez / Getty Images)

However, with the World Cup’s new 48-team format, the task of advancing proved less daunting for teams in the qualifying phase and at the World Cup, there will also be more opportunities to advance beyond the group stage because the best third-place finishers move on. That math could benefit South Africa even if it loses its opening match.

Should Bafana Bafana lose to Mexico, they would have to beat the Czech Republic in their second match on June 18 in Atlanta and would likely play for qualification on June 24 against South Korea in Monterrey.

“The Czechs are among the weakest in Europe, and there’s a good chance of beating them. Furthermore, South Korea is well below its own historical standards, as was evident in March with very poor results in high-pressure matches,” Gleeson said.

To prepare for the altitude in Mexico City, Broos, a former Belgian player who competed in the 1986 World Cup in Mexico, brought his team in early and, starting May 30, held training camp in Pachuca, a city at higher in elevation than the capital. Several of his players are already accustomed to some altitude from playing for clubs in Johannesburg, at 5,751 feet.

“South Africa has a chance; we can compete,” Tshabalala said in an interview after the draw. “I think the pressure will be on Mexico because they’re the hosts. That gives us a real opportunity to pull off an upset.”

A scoreless draw against Nicaragua in Johannesburg days before the World Cup isn’t exactly encouraging, but it also fits with the team’s expectations and the mindset of “having everything to gain and little to lose.”

“We have to enjoy it, and when you enjoy something, you can achieve great things,” said Broos.