forecast

Projected season opening date: By Thanksgiving, if Mother Nature cooperates, or by Yule on Dec. 21 at the latest.

What makes it special: Only 45 miles from Los Angeles in the San Gabriel Mountains, Mt. Baldy has 26 runs spread over 800 acres and three mountains. It also has a respectable vertical descent of 2,100 feet with wide-open glades, tree runs, bowls, moguls, groomed runs, cornices and quarter pipes. For those who don’t ski or snowboard, Mt. Baldy also offers snow tubing.

What’s new this season: With upgrades, Lift No. 3 now features more comfortable carriers to the top of Thunder Mountain at 8,600 feet. Chair No. 4 on the west side has a new drive and control system, allowing year-round use with both uphill and downhill loading when conditions permit. Continuous improvements to snowmaking are also helping Mt. Baldy open earlier each season. The resort’s former Last Name Brewing has rebranded as Mt. Baldy Brewery.

Lift ticket prices: Mt. Baldy season passes are currently on sale through Christmas Day: adults are $549 (regularly $799), teens and seniors are $449 (regularly $639) and children under 12 are $279 (regularly $399). You can pre-purchase lift tickets online for a discount. Walk-up tickets are $129 on busy days when the mountain is in full operation.

Pro-tip: Mt. Baldy has the most steep runs in Southern California. Advanced and expert skiers and snowboarders might want to head to Chair 1 to try “Nightmare,” a 36-degree slope that maintains its drop for 1,000 vertical feet.

The U.S. economy will be hampered by the Trump administration’s tariffs in the coming months, which along with interest rate cuts could lead to a “stagflation-lite” scenario of modestly elevated inflation and unemployment, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday.

The fourth-quarter estimate also predicts that rising layoffs could lead to a recession, and if President Trump is successful in exerting more control over the Federal Reserve, a “full blown stagflation scenario becomes a more significant risk.”

“This forecast is being produced at a time when more extreme scenarios have become increasingly plausible, even though they do not yet represent our baseline outlook,” states the report by Clement Bohr, senior economist at the forecast.

UCLA’s report notes that the labor market “deteriorated notably” in June while inflation pivoted away from a path of “gradual normalization” onto a rising trajectory.

The quarterly forecast does not take into account the government shutdown that began Wednesday that could results in thousands of layoffs, but predicts third-quarter GDP growth will come in at just 1% on a seasonably adjusted basis, and it will weaken further as the full cost of the tariffs takes hold.

It expects growth to recover in the middle of next year and reach 2% by the fourth quarter, remaining there throughout 2027.

Driving the stagflation prediction is an effective tariff rate of about 11%, with the risk of future levies on pharmaceuticals and the potential lack of a resolution of the China trade dispute. The report notes the political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the decision by the bank to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point in September. UCLA predicts a similar rate cut this month.

Trump’s “big beautiful” budget reconciliation bill passed in July, which included $703 billion in temporary tax cuts over the next four years starting in 2026, also will provide substantial stimulus. The Consumer Price Index is expected to peak at 3.6% in the first quarter of next year before easing.

However, the economy will be held back by a tightening labor supply caused by retiring baby boomers and restrictive immigration policies. The unemployment rate has crept up to 4.3% and is expected to peak at 4.6% early next year.

Also Wednesday, closely watched ADP Research released figures showed private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September with job growth slowing across many industries.

The billions of dollars being invested in artificial intelligence by large technology firms has helped prop up the economy, the forecast noted, which should result in productivity gains — but the capital expenditures should tail off as a “trough of disillusionment” sets in when revenue gains don’t meet expectations.

The report also expects consumer consumption to weaken following a surge in electric-vehicle purchases in the third quarter due to the expiration of federal tax credits last month.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said if the government shutdown lasts a week or two it won’t have a “meaningful economic impact.” However, if it lasts for a month or more and is accompanied by mass federal layoffs, it would have a profound effect on the economy, Zandi said.

“It would wreak havoc on the financial markets as global markets and investors begin to wonder if we can govern ourselves,” he said. “That would mean higher interest rates and lower stock prices.”

Aug. 13 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Erin is slightly intensifying and forecast to become a hurricane on Friday morning over the central tropical Atlantic with a chance of ultimately affecting the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda next week, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

For the first time since Erin became a tropical storm Monday morning, intensity increased, though just 5 mph, to maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with gradual strengthening during the next two days forecast, the NHC said in its 5 p.m. EDT update.

In the 11 p.m. update, Erin remained at 50 mph.

Erin is forecast to reach hurricane status by 8 a.m. Friday with winds at least 74 mph, and a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, by 8 p.m. Sunday.

It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Beryl was the first hurricane last year on June 24.

The storm is about 1,095 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Erin was moving westward at 16 mph and will shift to a north-westward track beginning Thursday night and into the weekend, the NHC said. On the forecast track, the storm’s center will move over or near just north of the northern Leeward Islands.

The NHC’s “cone” doesn’t track Erin past Monday night, and NHC forecasters remind that they have an average error of 150 to 214 miles at days four and five.

In the latest discussion, NHC forecaster Jack Beven said there is a “greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda.”

But he said: “The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.”

By this weekend, swells are forecast to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.

Alex Sosnowsky, an AccuWeather senior forecaster, said there is concern that residents, visitors, cruise lines, and shipping and fishing ventures “could pass paths with a powerful hurricane.”

With a track farther to the east, Bermuda could be directly in the path as a major hurricane.

He said a farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding in the U.S., including eastern North Carolina, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England.

“Families heading to U.S. Atlantic beaches for a late-summer vacation next week need to be extremely cautious when venturing into the surf,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year, without any major hurricane nearby.”

There are no warnings or coastal watches in effect as tropical-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. But those in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin’s progress.

The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina.

Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.

Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.

The International Monetary Fund has raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases in advance of an August 1 jump in tariffs imposed by the United States and a drop in the effective US tariff rate to 17.3 percent from 24.4 percent.

In its forecast on Tuesday, it warned, however, that the global economy faced major risks including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.

“The world economy is still hurting, and it’s going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it’s not as bad as it could have been,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook from April, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3 percent for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent for 2026. However, that is still below the 3.3 percent growth it had projected for both years in January and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7 percent.

It said global headline inflation was expected to fall to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, but noted that inflation would likely remain above target in the US as tariffs passed through to consumers in the second half of the year.

The US effective tariff rate – measured by import duty revenue as a proportion of goods imports – has dropped since April, but remains far higher than its estimated level of 2.5 percent in early January. The corresponding tariff rate for the rest of the world is 3.5 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in April, the IMF said.

US President Donald Trump has upended global trade by imposing a universal tariff of 10 percent on nearly all countries since April and threatening even higher duties to kick in on Friday. Far higher tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the US and China were put on hold until August 12, with talks in Stockholm this week potentially leading to a further extension.

The US has also announced steep duties ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent on automobiles, steel and other metals, with higher duties soon to be announced on pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductor chips.

Such future tariff increases are not reflected in the IMF numbers, and could raise effective tariff rates further, creating bottlenecks and amplifying the effect of higher tariffs, the IMF said.

Shifting tariffs

Gourinchas said the IMF was evaluating new 15-percent tariff deals reached by the US with the European Union and Japan over the past week, which came too late to factor into the July forecast, but said the tariff rates were similar to the 17.3 percent rate underlying the IMF’s forecast.

“Right now, we are not seeing a major change compared to the effective tariff rate that the US is imposing on other countries,” he said, adding it was not yet clear if these agreements would last.

“We’ll have to see whether these deals are sticking, whether they’re unravelled, whether they’re followed by other changes in trade policy,” he said.

Staff simulations showed that global growth in 2025 would be roughly 0.2 percentage point lower if the maximum tariff rates announced in April and July were implemented, the IMF said.

The IMF said the global economy was proving resilient for now, but uncertainty remained high and current economic activity suggested “distortions from trade, rather than underlying robustness”.

Gourinchas said the 2025 outlook had been helped by what he called “a tremendous amount” of front-loading as businesses tried to get ahead of the tariffs, but he warned that the stockpiling boost would not last.

“That is going to fade away,” he said, adding, “That’s going to be a drag on economic activity in the second half of the year and into 2026. There is going to be pay back for that front loading, and that’s one of the risks we face.”

Tariffs were expected to remain high, he said, pointing to signs that US consumer prices were starting to edge higher.

“The underlying tariff is much higher than it was back in January, February. If that stays … that will weigh on growth going forward, contributing to a really lackluster global performance.”

One unusual factor has been a depreciation of the dollar, not seen during previous trade tensions, Gourinchas said, noting that the lower dollar was adding to the tariff shock for other countries, while also helping ease financial conditions.

US growth was expected to reach 1.9 percent in 2025, up 0.1 percentage point from April’s outlook, edging up to 2 percent in 2026. A new US tax cut and spending law was expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by 1.5 percentage points, with tariff revenues offsetting that by about half, the IMF said.

It lifted its forecast for the euro area by 0.2 percentage point to 1 percent in 2025, and left the 2026 forecast unchanged at 1.2 percent. The IMF said the upward revision reflected a historically large surge in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US; without it, the revision would have been half as big.

China’s outlook got a bigger upgrade of 0.8 percentage point, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year, and the significant reduction in US-China tariffs after Washington and Beijing declared a temporary truce.

The IMF increased its forecast for Chinese growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent.

Overall, growth is expected to reach 4.1 percent in emerging markets and developing economies in 2025, edging lower to 4 percent in 2026, it said.

The IMF revised its forecast for world trade up by 0.9 percentage point to 2.6 percent, but cut its forecast for 2026 by 0.6 percentage point to 1.9 percent.

Areas affected include popular tourist destinations, such as Fairy Meadows, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Pakistan has issued a warning about glacial flooding in the northwest with more rain forecast in the coming week, as the country experiences above-average rainfall this monsoon season and continues to struggle to recover from devastating floods in 2022.

Downpours are heavier in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province than the same period last year, prompting weather advisories and alerts for flooding from glacial lake outbursts, said Anwar Shahzad, a spokesperson for the local disaster management authority, on Saturday.

The weather advisory alert comes after the authority sent out a letter earlier this month saying “persistent high temperatures may accelerate snow and glacier melt and subsequent weather events” in vulnerable parts of the region, underscoring the ongoing heavy impact of climate change on the country.

Spokesperson Faizullah Firaq said on Saturday there was “severe destruction” in some areas and damage to houses, infrastructure, crops, and businesses.

Search operations were under way to find missing people on the Babusar Highway, where flooding struck nine villages. Helicopters rescued tourists stuck in the popular spot, Fairy Meadows, he added.

Abdul Samad, from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Tourism Department, said rescue teams evacuated more than 500 holidaymakers from Naran after a cloudburst overnight Friday caused a road closure. Authorities deployed heavy machinery to remove debris and restore access.

In the neighbouring Gilgit-Baltistan region, the government said it had distributed hundreds of tents, thousands of food packets, and medicine to flood-affected communities. Three people died there on Tuesday when a cloudburst caused floods and landslides, stranding more than 200 tourists who were later rescued.

Zakir Hussein, director general of Gilgit-Baltistan’s Disaster Management Authority, said on Tuesday that while warnings help reduce the presence of tourists in these vulnerable areas, they are not always enough.

“Generally, tourists pay attention to our warning notices. Those who still choose to come are either those who did not see the warning or those who have some urgency to visit,” Hussein told Al Jazeera. “At the end of the day, it is weather prediction, but considering the severity of the consequences, people should take it seriously.”

The rains are a routine part of South Asia’s climate and are essential for crop irrigation and replenishing water supplies.

However, their adverse effect has worsened in recent years due to rapid urban expansion, poor drainage systems, and more frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change.

Pakistan’s above-average rainfall this monsoon season has raised concerns of a repeat of the devastating 2022 floods that submerged a third of the country, killed 1,737 people and displaced more than 30 million. Some 260 have died across Pakistan so far this season, which runs through to mid-September.

Pakistan, which has a population of about 250 million, is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, but one of the lowest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. It is also home to more than 7,000 glaciers – the largest outside the Earth’s polar regions.

Booking tumbled in the summer months as consumers pulled back on travel expenses

American Airlines has restored its full-year outlook as broader economic uncertainty continues to weigh on domestic consumer demand across the travel industry.

The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier on Thursday offered a wide range for its full-year forecast on the heels of its earnings report, saying the broader economic uncertainty is hobbling consumer spending. The airline had suspended financial guidance in April.

The airline says it expects an adjusted loss per share of 20 cents a share to a profit of 80 cents a share in 2025. The midpoint of the forecast is 30 cents per share, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 61 cents a share, according to LSEG data.

American, which generates more than two-thirds of its passenger revenue from the US domestic market, said that if domestic travel demand continues to strengthen, it expects to hit the top end of its outlook. But if the economy weakens, it only expects to be at the bottom end of the forecast.

“The domestic network has been under stress because of the uncertainty in the economy and the reluctance of domestic passengers to get in the game,” CEO Robert Isom told analysts on an earnings call.

American said tepid domestic travel demand affected its bookings in July. Isom, however, said the performance is expected to improve sequentially in August and September.

“We expect that July will be the low point,” he said.

The company expects its domestic unit revenue, or revenue generated from each seat, to remain lower year-over-year in the third quarter. Its non-fuel operating costs are estimated to be up as much as 4.5 percent in the September quarter.

American expects an adjusted loss per share in the range of 10 cents to 60 cents in the third quarter, compared with analysts’ estimates of a loss of 7 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The company’s outlook contrasts with upbeat forecasts of rival Delta and United Airlines. Alaska Air Group has also reported improvements in passenger traffic and pricing power.

Most US airlines withdrew their financial forecasts in April as President Donald Trump’s trade war created the biggest uncertainty for the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. While some have reinstated their expectations, there is lingering uncertainty as to how the economy will fare in an ever-evolving tariff landscape.

Demand in the domestic travel market has remained subdued, with budget travellers approaching their plans with caution, hurting carriers that primarily service the US domestic market and price-sensitive customers.

Even summer, typically the peak money-making season for airlines, is falling short this year, with unsold standard economy seats forcing carriers to cut fares.

It dented the second-quarter earnings of Southwest Airlines, the largest US domestic airline.

At American, the domestic market was the weakest in the second quarter, with its unit revenue declining 6.4 percent from a year ago. The company’s unit revenue in international markets was up, led by a 5 percent annual jump in the transatlantic market.

On Wall Street, the stock is taking a hit and was down 7.2 percent from the market open as of 11:30am in New York (15:30 GMT).

July 5 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the Atlantic on Saturday morning and is projected to reach South Carolina and North Carolina on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said.

Chantal, the third named storm of the season, will be the first system to impact the United States this Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1.

“As tropical cyclones go, this storm will be relatively minor and short-lived,” Frank Strait, severe weather liaison with the South Carolina State Climate Office, told the Island Packet.

In the 2 p.m. EDT update, Chantal had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was traveling northward at 3 mph. In the 11 a.m. update, the winds were 40 mph.

The storm became a tropical depression Friday night off the coasts of Northeast Florida and Georgia.

Chantal was about 105 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C., and about 185 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, N.C.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the South Santee River, S.C., to Surf City, N.C. A tropical storm watch goes from Edisto Beach to South Santee River.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles east of the center.

“Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon,” NHC forecasters said. “The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region.”

Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast, NHC said.

A turn to the northeast is forecast by Sunday night, NHC said. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across South Carolina’s coast Sunday morning.

Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall in the Carolinas through Monday with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts of 6 inches. NHC said these rains could cause flash flooding

“The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline,” NHC said.

Storm surge is forecast at 1-3 feet from South Santee River to Surf City and 1-2 feet from Edisto Beach to South Santee River.

Also, isolated tornadoes are possible Saturday night into Sunday along South Carolina’s eastern coast and much of North Carolina, NHC said.

“This was a classic example of homegrown development, by which a tropical storm formed close to the southeast Atlantic coast and in an area where it is typical for July,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Andrea and Barry, the first two named systems of the Atlantic hurricane season, have dissipated.

Target has slashed its annual forecasts amid a pullback in discretionary spending due to tariff-driven uncertainty and a backlash against shifts in its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policy.

The United States big box retailer, which reported its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, relies on China for 30 percent of its store label goods. While it is on track to reduce its dependency by another 5 percent by the end of the year, tariff-driven uncertainty has caused a slump.

In its forecast, the Minneapolis, Minnesota-based retailer expects a low single-digit decline in annual sales. Wall Street analysts expected a marginal increase of 0.27 percent in annual sales, according to the LSEG. Target previously forecasted net sales growth of about 1 percent.

This comes as Bank of America recently forecasted that consumers have eased up on spending as the most recent report from The Conference Board showed a slowdown in consumer confidence, which hit a 13-year low in April. The US economy also showed the first contraction in three years in the first quarter.

Target’s first-quarter comparable sales fell 3.8 percent compared with analysts’ estimates of a 1.08 percent decline. It expects annual adjusted earnings of $7 to $9 per share, compared with its prior forecast of $8.80 to $9.80. Analysts were expecting $8.40.

“Expectations were very low for Target’s first quarter. Even against that, Target’s results came in light,” Michael Baker, a DA Davidson analyst, told the news agency Reuters. Target’s stock has performed poorly, down nearly 28 percent this year, in contrast to Walmart’s 9 percent gain and Home Depot’s 2.3 percent decline.

Target’s stock is tumbling on the news of its disappointing earnings report. As of 11am in New York (15:00 GMT), it was down 2.91 percent from the market open although it is up more than 1 percent over the past five days.

DEI boycotts weigh on sales 

Target also said its first-quarter performance was impacted by changes made to its DEI policies in January.

Target ended many of its DEI policies, drawing condemnation as some of its critics noted that its commitment to inclusiveness had helped attract younger, more diverse consumers. The decision generated more attention as it coincided with US President Donald Trump’s executive order to eliminate DEI policies in federal agencies and schools.

The backlash led to economic boycotts, notably from Reverend Jamal-Harrison Bryant, a Georgia pastor who organised a 40-day “fast” of Target stores. He has since called for those efforts to continue in recognition of the fifth anniversary of George Floyd’s murder by police in Minneapolis, Target’s headquarters.

CEO Brian Cornell said the reversal of some DEI policies played a role in first-quarter performance but he couldn’t quantify the impact.

Worse than competitors 

“Target’s [results] do nothing to restore confidence in the company. On the contrary, they are emblematic of a business that has made too many mistakes and has lost its way on several fronts,” GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders told Reuters, pointing to issues including poor inventory management and a lack of exciting merchandise.

Target’s forecast contrasts with its bigger rival Walmart, which maintained its annual forecasts last week but said it would need to pass on higher prices due to tariffs. That has drawn the ire of Trump, who said Walmart should “eat the tariffs” on imported goods instead of passing on the costs.

Unlike Walmart, which generates the bulk of its revenues by selling groceries like bananas, milk, toilet paper and shampoo, a majority of what Target sells falls in the nonessential category – largely apparel, home furnishings and beauty products, which it sources from China.

TJX, the parent company of retailer TJ Maxx, also reported its earnings on Wednesday, and while tariffs loom, the company is set to maintain its forecasts. The Massachusetts-based big box retailer expects comparable sales to grow 2 percent to 3 percent during the current quarter.

Unlike Target and Walmart, TJ Maxx, relies on expansive sourcing from middlemen in the US, which limits the impact of any new tariffs on China.

Looming price hike 

On a media call, Target executives declined to provide details on potential price increases due to tariffs. Most tariff-related increases could be offset, they said, but acknowledged that raising prices could be a “last resort”.

Cornell said pricing decisions will largely depend on ongoing efforts to source more products from the US and reduce reliance on China.

“That is going to play a very important role,” he said.

Rick Gomez, the company’s chief commercial officer, said Target is working on negotiating with suppliers, expanding sourcing to other Asian countries beyond China, re-evaluating its product assortment, and adjusting the timing and quantity of orders.

“These efforts are expected to offset the vast majority of the incremental tariff exposure,” Gomez said.

RAIN is set to fall in just hours in parts of the UK, marking the end of the remarkably dry start to spring, the Met Office has forecast.

Some areas could even see thunder as the skies open up amid the driest start to the season in nearly six decades.

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The Environment Agency has also warned there could be a risk of a drought this summer without sustained rainfall, with millions of households told they may face water restrictions in the coming months.

As of Friday, just 80.6mm of rain has been recorded for the UK this spring – that’s almost 20mm less than the record low of 100.7mm, set in 1852 for the full season.

However, this could change imminently, as the Met Office has warned of showers landing in the north of the UK throughout Monday.

Met Office meteorologist Kathryn Chalk explained showers hit across southern Scotland and northern England overnight on Sunday, with some reaching as far south as Wales.

Heading into Monday morning, there are expected to be “much-welcome” showers across the central belt of Scotland, northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Cities such as Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland could be washed out by the rainfall, as could Manchester in the north of England.

Met Office meteorologist Dan Stroud added that Monday would see sunny spells in the west develop widely with a “few scattered showers developing across the north during the course of Monday afternoon”.

He added: “One or two of those could be heavy, potentially thundery, but most places are going to be warm and dry.”

However, from Tuesday onwards there could be “an increasing chance of showers across southern areas of the country,” Dan said.

“Then beyond that, Thursday and Friday are likely to become dry, fine and sunny again, with good deals of sunshine for much of the country.”

Conditions in the UK this spring had been “remarkably dry up until now”, Dan explained.

However, as we approach the final week of May, which is also when schools break for half-term, the weather is “looking increasingly changeable, with areas of cloud and rain arriving from the west”.

The Met Office explained the prolonged warm and very dry spell, which has seen Brits enjoy temperatures as high as 29C, was primarily caused by high pressure.

However, by Tuesday, changing conditions could see “occasional heavy and potentially thundery showers developing across parts of Wales and the Midlands, with one or two of those breaching into London“.

Discussing Wednesday’s forecast, Dan said: “It will be a bit of a chilly start across England and Wales with plenty of sunshine to kick the day off.

“But showers will develop across England and Wales, with some of those showers potentially heavy and thundery and breaching into the London area.”