fighter

Islamabad, Pakistan – Less than a week into the new year, after a meeting between Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu and his Bangladeshi counterpart Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan, the Pakistani military announced that a deal to sell its domestically produced JF-17 Thunder fighter jet could be imminent.

A statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing, said Khan praised the Pakistan Air Force’s combat record and sought assistance to support the Bangladesh Air Force’s “ageing fleet and integration of air defence radar systems to enhance air surveillance”.

Alongside a promise of fast-tracked delivery of Super Mushshak trainer aircraft, the statement, issued on January 6, added that “detailed discussions were also held on potential procurement of JF-17 Thunder aircraft.”

The Super Mushshak is a light-weight, two-to-three seater, single-engine plane with fixed, non-retractable, tricycle landing gear. The plane is primarily used for training purposes. Besides Pakistan, more than 10 countries currently have deployed the plane in their fleet for pilot training, including Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Iran, Iraq and others.

Just a day later, it was reported by the Reuters news agency that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were in talks to convert about $2bn of Saudi loans into a JF-17 fighter jet deal, further strengthening military cooperation between the two longtime allies. The discussions come only months after they signed a mutual defence pact in September last year.

Both developments followed reports in late December that Pakistan had reached a $4bn deal with a rebel faction in Libya, the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), including the sale of more than a dozen JF-17 Thunder jets.

While the Pakistani military has yet to formally confirm any agreement with Libya or Saudi Arabia, and Bangladesh has so far only expressed “interest” rather than signing a contract, analysts say events in 2025 have boosted the JF-17’s appeal.

However, the relatively cheap price of the plane, estimated at $25m-$30m, has meant that several countries in the last 10 years have shown interest in it, with Nigeria, Myanmar and Azerbaijan already having the jet in their fleets. And recent events have bolstered the reputation of Pakistan’s air fighting capabilities, say analysts.

In May, India and Pakistan fought an intense four-day air war, firing missiles and drones at each other’s territories, parts of Kashmir that they administer, and at military bases, after gunmen shot down 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan, which denied any link to the attack.

Pakistan said it shot down several Indian fighter jets during the aerial combat, a claim Indian officials later acknowledged after initially denying any losses, but without specifying the number of jets downed.

“The PAF demonstrated superior performance against much more expensive Western and Russian systems, which has made these aircraft an attractive option for several air forces,” Adil Sultan, a former Pakistan Air Force air commodore, said.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has traditionally relied on Russian Mirage-2000 and Su-30 jets, but in the 2025 fighting also used French Rafale jets.

Pakistan, for its part, relied on its recently imported Chinese J-10C Vigorous Dragon and the JF-17 Thunder as well as the United States’ F-16 Fighting Falcon jets, with 42 planes in the formation that took on 72 IAF planes, according to the PAF.

So what is the JF-17 Thunder, what can it do, and why are so many countries showing interest?

What is the JF-17 Thunder?

The JF-17 Thunder is a lightweight, all-weather, multi-role fighter aircraft jointly manufactured by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC).

Pakistan and China signed an agreement in the late 1990s to develop the aircraft, with work beginning in the early 2000s at the PAC in Kamra, situated in Pakistan’s Punjab province, just more than 80km (50 miles) away from the capital, Islamabad.

A retired Pakistan Air Force air commodore who worked closely on the programme said production is split between the two countries, with 58 percent carried out in Pakistan and 42 percent in China.

“We are manufacturing the front fuselage and vertical tail, whereas China makes the middle and rear fuselage of the plane, with a Russian engine being used, as well as British manufacturer Martin Baker’s seats are installed. However, the complete assembly of the plane is carried out in Pakistan,” he told Al Jazeera, speaking on condition of anonymity due to his involvement in the project.

He said the aircraft was first unveiled to the public in March 2007, with the induction of the first variant, Block 1, in 2009. The most advanced Block 3 variant entered service in 2020.

“The idea was to replace Pakistan’s ageing fleet, and subsequently, in the next decade or so, they made the bulk of our air force, with more than 150 combat jets part of the force,” he said.

Before the JF-17, Pakistan was primarily relying on French manufacturer Dassault’s Mirage III and Mirage 5, as well as Chinese J-7 fighter planes.

The Block 3 variant places JF-17 in the so-called 4.5 generation of fighter jets. It has air-to-air and air-to-surface combat capabilities, advanced avionics, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, electronic warfare systems and the ability to fire beyond-visual-range missiles.

Their avionics and electronic capabilities are an upgrade from the fourth generation of fighter planes, such as the F-16 and Su-27, which were primarily built for speed and dogfighting.

The AESA radar gives these planes the capability to track multiple targets at once and provides more visibility at longer distances. However, unlike fifth-generation planes, they lack stealth capabilities.

The Pakistan Air Force says the jet offers high manoeuvrability at medium and low altitudes and combines firepower, agility and survivability, making it “a potent platform for any air force”.

Who has bought the JF-17?

Myanmar was the first country to buy the JF-17, ordering at least 16 Block 2 aircraft in 2015. Seven have been delivered so far.

Nigeria became the second buyer, inducting three JF-17s into its air force in 2021.

Azerbaijan followed with an initial order of 16 jets in February 2024, worth more than $1.5bn. In November 2025, Azerbaijan unveiled five JF-17s during its Victory Day parade, formally making it the third foreign operator of the aircraft.

That same month, the Pakistani military announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding with a “friendly country” for procurement of the JF-17, describing it as a “noteworthy development” without naming the buyer.

Other countries, including Iraq, Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia, have also explored the option of buying the JF-17 over the past decade, though those plans did not materialise.

While JF-17 makes the bulk of the PAF’s fighting squadron, the plane is not used by the Chinese air force, which is more reliant on its J-10, J-20 and J-35 fighter planes.

With the plane’s entire assembly carried out in Kamra, Pakistan is the primary seller of the JF-17 fighter plane, including its after-sales services.

How does the JF-17 compare to other fighter jets?

The most advanced fighters currently in service globally are fifth-generation jets such as the US F-22 and F-35, China’s J-20 and J-35, and Russia’s Su-57. These aircraft feature stealth technology – unlike all previous generations of jets.

The JF-17’s Block 3 variant, by contrast, belongs to the 4.5 generation, alongside jets such as Sweden’s Gripen, France’s Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, India’s Tejas and China’s J-10, among others.

Still, while they don’t have stealth capabilities, 4.5 generation planes have specialised coating on them to reduce their radar signature, making them harder – though not impossible – to detect.

So, for instance, when a 4.5-generation jet enters the enemy’s radar zone, it can get detected, but it can also try to jam signals by using its electronic jamming capabilities, or use long-range missiles to attack the target, before turning back.

On the other hand, a fifth-generation plane remains entirely undetected by radars due to its physical design and weapons, which are stored internally.

While official pricing has not been disclosed, estimates put the JF-17’s unit cost at between $25m and $30m. By comparison, the Rafale costs more than $90m per aircraft, while the Gripen is priced at more than $100m.

An Islamabad-based regional security analyst who has closely monitored the development of the JF-17 planes said the jet’s appeal lies in its cost-effectiveness, lower maintenance requirements and combat record.

“The JF-17’s appeal is less about headline performance than the overall package, which includes lower price, flexible weapons integration, training, spares and generally fewer Western political strings,” he told Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity because of his involvement with the JF-17 project.

“In that sense, the JF-17 is a ‘good enough’ multirole jet optimised for accessibility. It can suit air forces modernising on tight budgets, but it is not a direct substitute for higher-end fighters like the J-10C or F-16V in range, payload, electronic warfare maturity and long-term upgrade headroom.”

Sultan, who is also dean of the Faculty of Aerospace and Strategic Studies at Islamabad’s Air University, said the JF-17’s performance against Indian aircraft in 2025 underscored its capabilities.

However, he cautioned that outcomes in air combat depend not only on the aircraft but on who is operating it.

“The jets’ integration with other systems such as ground and airborne radars, communication systems and the human skills mastered during training play the most vital role,” he said.

Why is the interest in JF-17s growing?

Pakistan’s air force again drew attention during the four-day conflict with India in May 2025, particularly on the night of May 7, when Indian aircraft struck targets inside Pakistani territory.

According to the PAF, Pakistani squadrons flying Chinese-made J-10C jets shot down at least six Indian aircraft. Indian officials initially denied losses but later acknowledged that “some” planes had been lost.

US President Donald Trump, who has claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire between the two countries, has repeatedly highlighted the performance of Pakistani jets, a claim India has strongly rejected.

Although the JF-17 was not involved in the reported shoot-downs, the PAF says it was part of the formations that engaged Indian aircraft.

Three days later, on May 10, the ISPR claimed a JF-17 was used to strike India’s Russian-made S-400 air defence system with a hypersonic missile. India has denied any damage to its defence system.

The Islamabad-based security analyst said Pakistan is using the May conflict to market the JF-17 as a combat-proven, affordable option for countries with limited defence budgets.

He added, however, that the possibility of a “potential procurement” should be treated cautiously.

“‘Expressions of interest’ should be treated cautiously as fighter jet procurements typically take years to translate from exploratory talks to signed contracts and deliveries,” he said, adding that “while PAF is continuing to market the JF-17 aggressively, the JF-17 for debt swap isn’t what PAF envisions.”

Other observers agree that Islamabad sees an opportunity to leverage its air force’s performance to secure defence exports and project itself as a rising middle power.

The retired air commodore involved in the JF-17 programme said combat performance remains the ultimate benchmark.

“Very few countries are making fighter jets, with most of the market dominated by Western developers who often attach many conditions to sales,” he said. “But everybody wants to diversify and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket, and that is where Pakistan comes in.”

On Bangladesh, he said Dhaka’s posture towards Pakistan has shifted sharply since a change of government in 2024.

“Such deals are not just about sale of a platform or a plane. It is a collaboration, an agreement at national level, showing strategic alignment between two countries,” he said.

Fighter jets, he added, are a long-term commitment, with service lives of three to four decades.

“If Bangladesh is getting a JF-17 or Super Mushshak trainers, you can be certain that they are in it for the long haul with training and after-sales services. They are also showing interest in Chinese J-10s, which means that strategically, they have decided who they want to align with in the future,” he said.

The Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder has emerged as a surprise candidate for Saudi Arabia’s next fighter jet, according to a recent report. While a mutual defense pact signed with Pakistan would help open the door to the transfer of JF-17s to Saudi Arabia, the fighter faces very strong competition. Furthermore, it isn’t clear if the Saudis even would want a light fighter like this at all, especially considering it could cause a rift with the U.S. at a critical time. In the past months, the kingdom has been offered the U.S.-made F-35, as you can read about here, and has been linked with several other multirole fighters.

According to a report today from Reuters, talks are now underway between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with a view to the kingdom obtaining an undisclosed number of JF-17s. These would be paid for by converting some of the billions of dollars of Saudi loans taken out by Islamabad, a sign of the deepening relationship between the two countries, including at a military level. The report cites two different Pakistani sources, one of whom says the talks are limited to the JF-17, while the other claims that the jets are the “primary option,” but that different military equipment could also be made available.

Reportedly, the deal would be worth $4 billion in terms of offsetting the loan, while Saudi Arabia would also spend $2 billion on top of that.

This week, Pakistan’s Air Chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu was in Saudi Arabia to discuss what the Pakistani military described as “bilateral defense cooperation, the regional security environment, and future avenues of collaboration” with his Saudi counterpart, Lieutenant General Turki bin Bander bin Abdulaziz.

The JF-17 was developed jointly by China’s Chengdu and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), and the first prototype took to the air in 2003. The aircraft is powered by a single Russian-designed RD-93 turbofan engine, an improved version of the RD-33 that is found in the twin-engined MiG-29 Fulcrum.

The Thunder has been steadily improved since the first series-built JF-17s began to come off the PAC line at its Kamra facility in 2008. After the first 50 JF-17s were delivered to Pakistan, production switched to the enhanced JF-17 Block 2 version, with improved avionics, strengthened wing roots for additional stores carriage, and an in-flight refueling probe, among other changes.

The latest Block 3 version of the jet has an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, as well as an improved fly-by-wire flight-control system, infrared search and track system, helmet-mounted display, and a larger holographic wide-angle head-up display for the pilot.

Pakistan Air Force JF-17 participates in Virtual Air Tattoo 2021

In terms of performance and specifications, the Block 2 version has a maximum takeoff weight of a little over 27,000 pounds, a maximum speed of Mach 1.6, and an unrefueled range of 840 miles. It can carry 3,300 pounds of stores carried on seven external hardpoints. This puts it broadly in the same class as the Saab Gripen C/D.

The unclassified version of an annual Pentagon report to Congress on China’s military stated that, as of May 2024, the JF-17 had been sold to Azerbaijan, Burma, and Nigeria — as well as Pakistan. The report also says that, as of 2024, negotiations were underway regarding a possible JF-17 transfer to Iraq.

That same story stressed heavily the growing presence of the JF-17, as well as other Chinese-made fighters, on the export market, as you can read more about here.

Last month, Pakistan reportedly struck a weapons deal worth more than $4 billion with the Libyan National Army, which is also said to include JF-17. Additionally, Pakistan has held talks with Bangladesh on the possible sale of the same jets.

As for Saudi Arabia, the claimed interest in the JF-17 comes after it signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan last September. This is the latest development in a long-running security partnership between the two nations, which has seen extensive provision of defense equipment to the kingdom, as well as training.

“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” the office of the Pakistani prime minister said in a statement about the pact. This raised questions of whether the Pakistani nuclear umbrella might even be extended to protect Saudi Arabia, too.

For its part, Saudi Arabia has regularly provided Pakistan with economic support. In 2018, Riyadh agreed on a support package for its ally that included a loan worth $6 billion. Since then, it has allowed Islamabad to defer payments.

Were it to happen, a deal involving JF-17s and potentially other arms could help balance the books between the countries.

While the JF-17 is less advanced than other fighters that Saudi Arabia has been looking at buying, most notably the F-35, the Thunder’s status has been enhanced by claims of its performance during Pakistan’s clashes with India last year. Pakistan has long pitched the JF-17 as a cheaper and more sustainable fighter option, but now it is combat-proven too, although the results of its performance against the Indian Air Force are hard to verify.

Last month, it became clear that the Trump administration intended to sell up to 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia, which marked a significant policy shift. Previously, Washington had been unwilling to export these jets to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel — also an F-35 operator.

As we noted at the time:

Even without the F-35, the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) operates an extremely modern and advanced fleet of fighters. It received 84 of the new-build F-15SA, which was the most advanced variant of the Strike Eagle family available until the appearance of the Qatari F-15QA and the U.S. Air Force’s F-15EX Eagle II. Meanwhile, the 68-strong fleet of earlier F-15S aircraft has been upgraded locally to a similar standard, known as F-15SR (for Saudi Retrofit).

The RSAF also received 72 Eurofighter Typhoons. Older, but still capable, are around 80 British-supplied Panavia Tornado IDS swing-wing strike aircraft, which continue in service in the strike role.

Other fighters have been linked with a sale to Saudi Arabia, as it seeks to further boost its fighter fleet.

For a long time, more Typhoons were seen as the most likely option, but a potential deal has been frustrated by Germany — which has a stake in Eurofighter via the German arm of Airbus — which has consistently blocked further sales of the jets to Saudi Arabia, citing human rights concerns.

Saudi Arabia also entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters, as we reported back in 2023.

More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia.

The JF-17 is far less capable than these options, but it is not irrelevant, especially in its Block 3 version with AESA radar and Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles.

At the same time, the Thunder would be a far less expensive option and could be acquired in greater numbers, creating a high-low force mix.

Still, the idea that Saudi Arabia would actually be interested in Pakistan’s proposal seems remote due to multiple factors.

Whether the JF-17 could be operated alongside the F-35 is highly questionable, on the grounds that its sensitive technologies might be exposed to Chinese intelligence. On the other hand, even without the JF-17, Saudi Arabia has long been a customer of Chinese-made defense equipment, including drones and ballistic missiles. But these are not fighter platforms with sensors that can give away critical capabilities, as well as weapon systems that need highly integrated tactics across a force in order to be effective. The very idea that a deal like this could even threaten the long-awaited acquisition of the F-35 seems to disqualify it on its face.

There is also the question of why Saudi Arabia would even want this aircraft when they have access to far more capable fighters that accommodate the weapons and networks their force already uses? A high-low mix may hold some relevance, but we have seen no indication that Saudi Arabia believes this to be the case.

It also comes at a time of extremely close ties between the kingdom and the U.S., with the Trump administration seeing Saudi Arabia as a top ally and economic partner. Risking that for a cheap fighter aircraft seems remote.

At the same time, Islamabad sees arms sales, including to non-traditional clients, as critical to helping address its economic troubles.

“Our aircraft have been tested, and we are receiving so many orders that Pakistan may not need the International Monetary Fund in six months,” Pakistani Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif recently told local media.

However, as has been the case in earlier Saudi procurements, the most important dimension in selecting a new fighter may well be the political one.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The U.S. Air Force has formally designated Northrop Grumman’s Project Talon drone as the YFQ-48A and described it as a “strong contender” to be part of its future Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) fleets. This follows news that the service has handed contracts to nine companies to refine a wide array of designs under Increment 2 of its CCA program. Northrop Grumman, together with its subsidiary Scaled Composites, only lifted the lid on Project Talon earlier this month, as you can read more about in our initial report here.

YFQ-48A is the third ‘fighter drone’ designation the U.S. military has now applied to a CCA-type design. The service announced in March that the drones General Atomics and Anduril have been developing under Increment 1 of the CCA program had received the designations YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A, respectively. However, the Project Talon design is not part of Increment 1, as we will come back to later on.

“The MDS designation highlights the ongoing partnership between the Air Force and Northrop Grumman and acknowledges the continued progress of the YFQ-48A as a strong contender in the CCA program,” according to an official Air Force release.

“We are encouraged by Northrop Grumman’s continued investment in developing advanced semi-autonomous capabilities,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Jason Voorheis, the service’s Program Executive Officer for Fighters and Advanced Aircraft, said in a statement. “Their approach aligns with our strategy to foster competition, drive industry innovation, and deliver cutting-edge technology at speed and scale.”

“Northrop Grumman’s commitment to innovation, low-cost manufacturing, and calculated risk-taking aligns perfectly with the CCA acquisition strategy and the Secretary of War’s Acquisition Transformation Strategy,” Air Force Col. Timothy Helfrich, Director of the Agile Development Office, also said. “Project Talon is a testament to their ability to push boundaries and experiment with new technologies, ultimately advancing solutions that could enhance the future of airpower.”

While details about the Project Talon drone itself remain limited, Northrop Grumman has made clear that it is based on lessons learned from its losing entry in the Increment 1 competition. The company has said that its Increment 1 design was at the higher end of the performance and capability spectrum, and had a price to match. Talon, by extension, has been described as “cheaper and better” and “significantly different” from the Increment 1 offering, and a first flight is now targeted for late next year. You can learn more about what TWZ has been able to glean so far here.

Project Talon is here. This next-gen autonomous aircraft is made to adapt fast.

➡️ Modular by design
➡️ Mission-ready
➡️ Built for the challenges ahead pic.twitter.com/6UOhLSBHKn

— Northrop Grumman (@northropgrumman) December 4, 2025

“Northrop Grumman remains in a vendor pool that can compete for future efforts, including the Increment 1 production contract and subsequent increments,” an Air Force spokesperson told TWZ when asked about the current relationship of Northrop Grumman and Project Talon to the CCA program.

“As the Air Force continues to advance the CCA program, the ongoing collaboration with Northrop Grumman and the defense and aerospace industry will ensure that the Air Force remains at the forefront of airpower innovation,” the Air Force’s release today also noted. “These types of partnerships will help the Air Force meet the challenges of an increasingly complex and competitive global security environment while maintaining the technological superiority necessary to prevail in future conflicts. “

TWZ has also reached out to Northrop Grumman. Northrop Grumman and Scaled Composites have also previously said that Project Talon, which has been described so far as a demonstrator effort, is not explicitly aimed at a particular contract opportunity, such as the Air Force CCA program’s Increment 2.

As mentioned, the Air Force has separately confirmed that nine companies have now received initial concept refinement contracts under the CCA program’s Increment 2, which were all awarded earlier this month. The service is presently declining to name any of those companies, one of which could be Northrop Grumman. An Air Force spokesperson told TWZ that the vendor details are currently “protected by enhanced security measures.”

“These designs [being refined under Increment 2 now] represent a broad spectrum, ranging from more affordable, attritable concepts to higher-end, more exquisite designs,” that same spokesperson also told TWZ. “This variety ensures that the program explores different approaches, optimizing for cost-effectiveness while maintaining the flexibility and capabilities necessary to enhance operational effectiveness.”

That the Air Force is again considering a mix of lower and higher-end designs for Increment 2 is a notable development. The service had indicated previously that it would focus heavily on less exquisite and cheaper designs for the second tranche of CCA drones based on its experience with Increment 1. It’s also worth remembering here that Increment 2 has also long been expected to include foreign participation, which would have impacts on the requirements. In October, the Netherlands announced it had formally joined the Air Force’s CCA program.

The U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Navy also have their own CCA programs, which are formally intertwined with the Air Force’s effort, including in the development of common command and control and autonomy architectures. However, the Marines and Navy have been pursuing specific airframe designs to meet their respective needs independently. The Marine Corps is moving to field an operational version of Kratos’ XQ-58A Valkyrie drone following extensive testing with that design. The Navy has four companies under contract now for conceptual aircraft carrier-based CCA designs.

“The next competitive contract award will occur after the Concept Refinement Phase, as the Air Force evaluates the technical and operational merits of the submitted designs for prototyping,” the Air Force spokesperson added. “Increment 2 will be structured similarly to Increment 1, where more than one awardee may be selected for prototyping. This approach allows for competitive development and ensures that the Air Force can evaluate various solutions before selecting the final designs to move into production.”

“For CCA Increment 2, following concept refinement, the Air Force will proceed with prototyping, with plans for a future competitive award leading to production awards,” they continued. “The specific timeline for these milestones will depend on the results from Concept Refinement and the vendor’s performance during testing.”

Many questions remain about the Air Force’s CCA plans, including exactly how many drones the service is set to acquire under Increment 1, and whether that initial fleet will be all YFQ-42As or YFQ-44As, or a mix of both. The Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy are all still very much refining their core concepts of operations for future CCA fleets, including deployed, launched, recovered, supported, and otherwise operated on a day-to-day peacetime basis, let alone employing them tactically.

In the meantime, the Air Force is clearly pushing with the development of additional CCA types, including Northrop Grumman’s and Scaled Composites’ Project Talon design. With Increment 2 now underway, more insights into the new field of CCA competitors may begin to emerge.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

China’s military aerospace sector is clearly in a period of rapid growth and innovation right now. As it continues to roll out new combat aircraft designs, crewed and uncrewed, for domestic use, it’s also lining up new exports of at least three of its in-production fighters. That’s one finding from the unclassified version of an annual Pentagon report to Congress on China’s military, released yesterday.

The latest Pentagon assessment of the military and security developments involving China doesn’t include much in the way of new information on the individual aircraft programs for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The report does mention the debut in the last 12 months of “two stealth aircraft with novel tailless design features,” the aircraft that are now known informally as the J-36 and the J-XDS. Other debuts highlighted include the land-based J-35A fifth-generation combat aircraft and the J-15D carrier-borne electronic warfare aircraft. Also of note is the statement that the new airborne early warning and control aircraft based on the Y-20B transport is “meant to identify and track advanced stealth aircraft.”

Perhaps the most significant military aerospace development is the assertion in the report that China aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035, which would provide a total of nine (China’s third, the Fujian, began its inaugural sea trials in May). Recent imagery indicates that China is progressing with work on a new aircraft carrier, its fourth, which is expected to introduce nuclear propulsion. There are increasing reports that Beijing may also still be working on at least one more conventionally powered carrier, too. If these plans are accurate, then the gap between China’s fleet of carriers and the U.S. Navy’s 11 active nuclear-powered supercarriers is growing smaller at an even faster pace.

When it comes to China’s fighters for export, the report identifies the fifth-generation Shenyang FC-31 (export variant of the J-35), the fourth-generation Chengdu J-10C, and the JF-17, which it defines, somewhat puzzlingly, as a light combat aircraft. The last of these, also named Thunder, is a China-Pakistan coproduction, not used by the PLA.

In terms of orders already achieved, the Pentagon states that, as of May 2025, the FC-31 has no sales. However, it does say that there are “interested clients,” which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The first prototype FC-31 took to the air in 2012 and was followed, in 2016, by a significantly reworked and greatly refined version, which we discussed in detail at the time. More recently, developmental focus has been on the J-35 version for carrier-based service with the PLA Navy. Alongside this, Shenyang has also developed the J-35A, a land-based stealth fighter that has been under development for some time and which publicly emerged late last year.

The long-term PLA Air Force plans for the J-35A remain unclear, but the carrier-capable J-35 may well now be in operational PLA Navy service. Since the base design was developed primarily for export, foreign sales are almost certainly still being sought.

Somewhat surprising is the fact that the Pentagon doesn’t link Pakistan with a potential FC-31 order. After all, there had been a previous announcement of official Pakistani plans to acquire a land-based version of the jet.

Pakistan is interested in buying FC-31.

The details are subject to further negotiations, but it’s unlikely we’ll sell the AF version of the J-35 (more developed form of FC-31).

It’s more likely a bespoke version of FC-31 for Pakistan
1/2 pic.twitter.com/X4PdRNSpAy

— Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 (@zhao_dashuai) January 3, 2024

As for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, all these nations are known to be looking for new fighters.

Egypt was once destined to receive 24 Su-35s from Russia, before the threat of U.S. sanctions and a teased offer of F-15s put an end to that sale. In particular, Washington had said it would put sanctions on Cairo under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In the event, it appears those same Su-35s, or at least some of them, ended up in Algeria.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the FC-31 would join a relatively packed list of competitors for that country’s next batch of fighters.

Saudi Arabia was long expected to buy more Eurofighter Typhoons, in a deal that would be brokered by BAE Systems of the United Kingdom. With that potential deal held up by concerns over Saudi human rights abuses, Saudi Arabia entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale fighters, as we reported back in 2023. More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia, while last month it was reported that the Trump administration was weighing up the sale of up to 48 Lockheed Martin F-35As to the kingdom.

Selling the stealth jet to Saudi Arabia would be a significant policy shift, with Washington previously being unwilling to export F-35s to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel. The same applies to the United Arab Emirates, where, like in Saudi Arabia, Beijing seems to be offering its stealthy FC-31 as a direct alternative to the F-35.

An arms package for the United Arab Emirates, approved at the end of the previous Trump administration and valued at up to $23.37 billion, included 50 F-35As, among other weapons. In 2021, the Emirati government reportedly said it wanted to scrap the plan, due to concerns over stringent safeguards to protect these systems — somewhat ironically — against Chinese espionage.

For the J-10C, the report notes that the only exports of this type are the 20 units delivered to Pakistan. These are part of two previous orders from Islamabad totaling 36 aircraft since 2020. It’s unclear when the remaining jets are set to be delivered to the Pakistan Air Force. Since entering Pakistani service, the J-10C saw its combat debut in this year’s clashes between India and Pakistan. Many observers pointed to the potentially significant impact made by the jets, especially in conjunction with their much-vaunted PL-15 air-to-air missiles — the latter of which you can read about in depth here. Regardless, China went into overdrive to publicize the claimed success of the J-10C and its Chinese-made missiles in Pakistan Air Force hands.

Meanwhile, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all said to have expressed interest in the J-10C.

Aside from the aforementioned Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all known to be looking for new fighter equipment.

Indonesia signed a contract for the 42 Rafales, which it followed up by announcing plans to buy up to 24 F-15EX fighters, specifically a derivative known as the F-15IND, as you can read more about here.

Dassault Rafale (T0302) Multirole Fighter destined for Indonesia spotted at Bordeaux–Mérignac Airport.

📸: Willy Josse – Bordeaux Mérignac Spotters pic.twitter.com/8cmgU6PmQB

— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) November 8, 2025

The prospects of a J-10C sale in Iran may be somewhat better.

Iran’s geriatric air force has been particularly hobbled by historic arms embargoes and the country’s increasing pariah status in the global community. In the past, Iran has been linked with a potential transfer of Su-35s, which so far hasn’t materialized, while the country’s fighter force almost certainly suffered heavy attrition in the conflict with Israel earlier this year.

As for Bangladesh, this country may also now be out of the market for a new fighter. Earlier this month, it was reported that it had signed a letter of intent with Italy’s Leonardo to buy an undisclosed number of Typhoons.

Turning to the JF-17, which is the lowest-end and cheapest offering of the three fighters, has also done the best in terms of exports.

As of May 2024, the Pentagon records JF-17 sales to Azerbaijan, Burma, and Nigeria, as well as Pakistan. The report also says that, as of 2024, negotiations were underway regarding a possible JF-17 transfer to Iraq.

Iraq is an intriguing candidate customer. Although it has been a keen customer of Chinese arms for many years, the country’s fighter needs would appear to be well met by its Lockheed Martin F-16s — provided they are still operational.

Back in 2023, the Pentagon reported that the F-16IQ had become Iraq’s most reliable platform for carrying out airstrikes against ISIS terrorists, at least in part due to a shortage of spare parts for Iraq’s Russian-made attack helicopters as a result of the war in Ukraine. U.S. and Iraqi authorities were said to be looking into the possibility of modernizing the F-16IQ’s notoriously limited air-to-air capabilities.

It’s unclear why Iraq might have started to look at buying JF-17s. One possibility is simply to increase the size of its fighter fleet and do it more cheaply, but it’s also possible that Iraq’s F-16s may be suffering from some of the same kinds of problems they did in the past. Indeed, as of 2020, it was announced that the withdrawal of maintenance teams from Iraq meant that its F-16 fleet was at risk of effectively ceasing to exist.

Overall, we don’t know how accurate the Pentagon’s assessments of potential export sales for China’s fighters are, but they remain interesting.

Not least for the fact that China, the world’s fourth-largest arms supplier, is increasingly active at the higher end of military aerospace exports. Indeed, with three different fighter designs on offer, it is well able to meet different requirements in terms of costs and capabilities. With its stealthy FC-31, China can offer a competitor not only to the F-35 but also to the Turkish TF Kaan and the South Korean KF-21 Boramae at the lower end of that segment.

Furthermore, China is increasingly well-positioned to offer complementary drones to operate alongside these crewed fighters. China is currently making great leaps in drone technology and is in hot pursuit of equivalents to the U.S. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Such designs could be offered paired with these fighters, putting even smaller countries within reach of the latest concept of operations and airpower capabilities.

In addition, as the Pentagon report notes, “arms transfers are a component of China’s foreign policy and complement assistance and initiatives that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Many developing countries, especially in Africa, purchase China’s weapons systems because they are less expensive than Western systems.” This latter point certainly holds true for the JF-17, in particular, although that jet has added significant new capabilities in its later versions, including an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Beijing is also more willing than most Western nations to offer financial incentives such as trade for minerals and flexible payment options.

Overall, all three fighters, like all Chinese weapons designs, also have the major advantage of being immune to the tight export restrictions that typically apply to Western products. The story of Beijing’s fighter exports indicates that it is far more likely to grant export licenses to countries that might be prohibited from buying a Western design.

Provided China can secure an export sale for the FC-31, this would be a hugely significant development, greatly helping China break farther out into the higher-end fighter marketplace — especially if it is offered at an attractive price. At the same time, foreign orders for the jet would help offset further development costs and lower production costs, making it even more attractive on the export market.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com