fernando guerra

The Dodgers are too good, and too rich. If the owners of other major league teams ultimately deem that combination so objectionable that they shut down the sport this winter because of it, they will risk a rupture in one of the greatest fan bases in American sports history.

The four million tickets the Dodgers sold last season tells one part of the story. Here is an arguably better one: For decades, the Dodgers and Lakers have dominated Los Angeles sports and left every other team far behind in popularity.

For now, after back-to-back World Series championships, the Dodgers have left even the Lakers far behind in popularity, and every other team in town even further behind.

In a Loyola Marymount survey asking Los Angeles County residents to identify their favorite among the 12 pro sports teams within the local media market, nearly half picked the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ lead over the Lakers — 43% to 28% — represented the largest gap between the teams in the nine editions of the survey, first conducted in 2014 by the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles.

The Rams ranked third, at 7%, followed by the Kings at 5% and the Angels at 4%.

The two women’s teams — Angel City FC and the Sparks — tied for last, each with less than 1% of the vote. Even when the study separated votes by gender, the two women’s teams got less than 1% of the vote from women.

As recently as 2018, five teams beyond the Dodgers and Lakers — the Angels, Clippers, Galaxy, Kings and Rams — attracted at least 4% of the vote. In this year’s survey, only the Rams did.

“I’m a big Rams fan,” said Fernando Guerra, the center’s director, “and I still put the Dodgers first.

“I love all these teams. But, when you have to choose one, it’s the Dodgers.”

Dodgers president Stan Kasten pointed to the popularity and excellence of the players, the cherished ballpark and the generational fan support as factors contributing to the top ranking.

“If you have a lot of good elements but you don’t win, you’re not going to be as high,” Kasten said. “And, if you win but you don’t have the other elements, you’re not going to be as high.

“I think, right now, we’re as close as you can be to clicking on all cylinders.”

Beyond the winning, Guerra cited Shohei Ohtani as a driving force behind the Dodgers’ popularity, and not just as a tourist attraction, merchandise driver, and the foremost product endorser in sports.

In 2018, Ohtani’s debut season with the Angels, 8% of fans that identified themselves as Asian picked the Angels as their favorite team and 34% picked the Dodgers — a terrific showing for the Angels, since the study polls residents in L.A. County, not Orange County.

That demographic this year: 4% picked the Angels, 47% picked the Dodgers.

In their 10 years since returning to Los Angeles, the Rams have made seven playoff appearances and two Super Bowl appearances, winning one. All that, and a half-century in their previous run in L.A., and their membership in the most popular sports league in America, and the best they could do was 7%.

“It’s just tough to break the Lakers’ and Dodgers’ hold,” Guerra said. “It’s not like we don’t love the Rams or the others. It’s just not your top priority.”

The Lakers and Dodgers have combined to win 20 championships in Los Angeles. The other 10 teams that call this market home have combined to win 16.

In the 13 seasons since Mark Walter and Co. bought the Dodgers, the team has won 12 division titles, made five World Series appearances, and won three championships. In the same time, the Lakers have won three division titles, advanced past the first round of the playoffs twice, and won one championship.

Walter bought a controlling interest in the Lakers last year. He has installed Lon Rosen, formerly the Dodgers’ executive vice president and chief marketing officer, as the Lakers’ president of business operations.

“When the Lakers are winning a lot of championships, they’re No. 1,” Rosen said. “When the Dodgers are, they’re No. 1.

“It’s a good position to be in, since we control both teams, and both teams are highly successful.”

In this moment, the Dodgers are highly successful.

“The Lakers and Dodgers are going to be neck and neck very soon,” Rosen said. “The Lakers will 100% be champions again soon.”

The Dodgers do not concede the days of neck and neck will return. Kasten, remember, said the Dodgers were as close as they could be to clicking on all cylinders.

“We don’t take that for granted,” he said. “We know we can do even better.”

City Councilmember Nithya Raman came out ahead of incumbent Karen Bass in a new poll on the Los Angeles mayor’s race, though the poll’s director cautioned that it did not give the whole picture.

Raman had a commanding lead in a field of five major candidates, with 33% of voters supporting her, while Bass trailed at 17%, according to the poll by the Loyola Marymount University Center for the Study of Los Angeles.

Leftist Rae Huang came in just behind Bass at nearly 17%, while tech executive Adam Miller had 13% and conservative reality TV star Spencer Pratt had 12%.

Other polls have shown Bass in first place.

She was at 20% in an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll, with Raman at just over 9%. In a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times, Bass was at 25% and Raman at 17%.

In the Loyola Marymount poll, unlike the other polls, respondents were given brief descriptions of the candidates, including their occupations and political priorities.

Raman was labeled a “progressive LA City Councilmember focused on housing affordability, homelessness and systemic reform,” while Bass was “incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, veteran legislator, focused on homelessness.”

One of Raman’s challenges, as a councilmember representing Los Feliz and Silver Lake as well as parts of the San Fernando Valley, is to spread her name recognition citywide, with the June 2 primary election about two months away. She entered the race to challenge Bass, her one-time ally, at the last minute, hours before the early February filing deadline.

The Loyola Marymount poll of 370 registered Los Angeles voters was conducted from Feb. 11 to March 16. It did not include a choice for “undecided,” while the other two polls showed that significant percentages of voters hadn’t made up their minds.

“This poll shows if only positive descriptors are used and context is provided, Raman is ahead,” said Fernando Guerra, director of Loyola Marymount’s Center for the Study of Los Angeles, who directed the poll.

Guerra said he believes Bass is the front-runner, taking the previous polls into account.

Bass’ campaign took issue with the Loyola Marymount poll.

“In 2022, this same LMU poll had Karen Bass at 16% — she ended up winning the primary with 43%. The only thing more ridiculous than this poll is Spencer Pratt’s performance on The Hills,” said Alex Stack, a spokesperson for the Bass campaign, referencing Pratt’s reality show.

Raman’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In a post on X citing the poll, Raman wrote, “OUR CAMPAIGN IS SURGING … Angelenos are ready for a city that actually works.”

Paul Mitchell, vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc., said the poll’s sample size was too small to draw conclusions and that the poll was less reliable because it was conducted over the course of more than a month.

He also noted that with many of the candidates relatively unknown, including the descriptors could have a major effect.

“I’m sure Nithya Raman doesn’t have citywide name recognition, but that description is really great,” Mitchell said.

Guerra said he didn’t include an “undecided” option because he wanted to “force” respondents to give an answer, similar to when they actually vote.

In the Emerson poll, more than 50% of voters were undecided on who to support for mayor. The Berkeley IGS poll showed about a quarter of voters were undecided.

In LMU’s mayoral poll from 2022, released in early March of that year, 42% of respondents chose “undecided/someone else” for mayor.

After Bass, who had 16% support, then-City Councilmember Kevin de Léon was second at 12% in the 2022 poll. Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer, who ended up making the runoff election against Bass, received 6% support.

In that year’s June primary, Bass got 43% of the vote, Caruso nearly 36% and De Léon about 8%.

This year’s LMU poll also asked L.A. voters what kind of candidate they would prefer for mayor.

Nearly 50% said they prefer a Democratic Socialist, while 25% said they want a moderate Democrat, 19% said a conservative and just 8% said an establishment Democrat.

“Los Angeles is much more progressive than its elected leadership. This poll captures that,” Guerra said.

Some disagreed.

Mike Trujillo, a consultant for moderate Democrats who is not representing anyone in the mayoral race, said polling he has done across the city shows that the Democratic Socialists of America’s popularity is much lower.

Raman is a dues-paying member of the Los Angeles chapter of DSA, which endorsed her in her two successful City Council campaigns.

“If you believe this poll, I have bridges to sell you on 1st Street, 6th Street, and Alameda Street — and there’s no bridge on Alameda,” he said. “The poll was basically A to Z in Nithya Raman’s contact list.”

This year’s LMU poll also asked L.A. County voters about the governor’s race. Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter led at about 16%, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 13% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 12%.

The Berkeley IGS poll showed two Republicans — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Hilton — leading the crowded field of gubernatorial candidates by slim margins among voters statewide, with Democratic support split among multiple candidates in a left-leaning state.