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Contributor: The window to declare success in Iran is closing

If you’re looking for the most elegant way to wrap up our “little excursion” in Iran, it’s this: President Trump should follow what might politely be called the “declare victory and head for the airport” strategy.

You know the drill: Announce that we’ve set back Iran’s nuclear programs a decade, pounded their navy into submission, and turned the ayatollah into a fine mist. Mission accomplished! Thank you for flying the friendly skies, and please return your seat backs to their full upright and locked position.

Don’t get me wrong. This “cut and run” routine is less than ideal. Trump will have signaled to the world he (we) can’t endure any insurgent resistance, empowered the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to run the country and likely angered Israel in the process.

But his domestic political base will believe he won, and fan service has always been his top political priority.

Besides, once you’ve entered a war without a coherent justification, clearly defined goals or a credible exit strategy, you’re lucky to get out at all. A salutary outcome no longer exists; that ship has already sailed.

Speaking of which, as I write this, we are drifting toward what feels like a point of no return. Mining the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is now attempting to do, is the ultimate trump card.

Using mines to shut down this narrow shipping lane — which contributes about 20% of the world’s oil supply, not to mention natural gas and fertilizer — could result in a crippled global economy, mass casualties and a situation in which the president can no longer save face while cutting and running.

As retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis writes, “Iran has been planning a Strait of Hormuz closure operation for decades and probably has more than 5,000 mines; just one hit can severely damage a thin-skinned tanker.”

Yes, once laid, minefields can be cleared. But Stavridis predicts it would take “weeks, if not a month or two” to clear thousands of mines. He warns: “The global economy needs to be prepared for a month or two shutdown.” (Complicating matters is the fact that our dedicated minesweepers were recently decommissioned.)

The Iranians are not idiots. They watch American politics. They understand that Trump’s pressure point isn’t Tehran — it’s the S&P 500. A bad week on Wall Street makes him jumpier than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Trump, whatever else you say about him, is a transactional materialist who approaches geopolitics the way a real estate developer approaches zoning disputes: What’s the angle, where’s the leverage, and can everybody just settle already?

Unfortunately, the fellows running Iran are religious zealots who believe — deeply, sincerely and somewhat alarmingly — in something larger than quarterly economic indicators. Their strategic plan appears to consist of two options: survive (which they see as tantamount to victory), or die gloriously while insisting they meant to do that all along.

Which makes their current behavior grimly logical.

The Iranian regime, such as it is, doesn’t have much to lose. But they know exactly what Trump has to lose: His popularity and political legacy are now tied to the price of oil.

Releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves will help to some extent, but this is not a long-term solution. And Iran is betting that when the price at the pump for U.S. consumers starts looking like a luxury car payment, Trump will do what critics like to summarize as TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

Lots of American political observers agree. And it’s not just moderates or RINOs who are teasing this.

Referring to the U.S. military, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business: “They have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. I don’t care what it costs.”

“If they can’t keep it open,” Gingrich continued, “this war will, in fact, be an American defeat before very long, because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil if the strait stays closed very long.”

Perhaps the U.S. military can pull off a delicate trick: keep our “armada” in the region, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, clear any mines that are laid and prevent some unlucky tanker from being hit by a mine — or, for that matter, by a drone or missile fired from the Iranian coast. That final risk is why some military analysts believe reopening the strait would require a ground operation.

Imagine that the U.S. manages to thread these needles. Then what?

Total and complete surrender? Regime change? Boots on the ground?

Absent a swift exit (like, tomorrow), we’re left with the two classic options of power politics: a delayed and more ignominious retreat or increased escalation.

And, historically speaking, American presidents are more likely to double down — with tragic results.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

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USC men’s basketball wonders what could have been after loss at UCLA

As his USC team slid further off the NCAA tournament bubble, falling flat against its fiercest rival, frustrated coach Eric Musselman couldn’t help but lament what might have been.

If the Trojans had Rodney Rice, maybe things would have gone differently in his second season.

“I haven’t really talked about it in a long time,” Musselman said. “But we’ve got three games left, so I’m gonna bring it up now. To run our offense and stuff without a guy like him is problematic for sure.”

Of course, after losing 81-62 to crosstown rival UCLA,, there wasn’t much else for USC to find solace in Tuesday night. Maybe Rice, who has been out since late November, would have elevated the Trojans’ ailing offense. Maybe freshman Alijah Arenas, who didn’t debut until late January, could have found his stride faster with a full offseason.

No amount of what-ifs, however, will fix what ails USC during its final three games. The loss to UCLA was its fourth straight. As of Tuesday night, the Trojans were firmly out of the tournament field, a fact that Musselman was well aware of.

That’s not set in stone yet. But the question now is whether the Trojans even have the capacity to climb back into the March mix.

That path back for USC would certainly be smoother with a more potent offense. Sixth-year senior Chad Baker-Mazara led the team with 25 points against UCLA in spite of playing through a sore knee.

But the rest of the Trojans offense shot under 30% — another issue that Musselman traced back to Rice’s absence.

“The lack of shooting is really hurting us,” Musselman said. “I haven’t really talked about it in a long time. But not having Rodney Rice’s shooting is killing us. It kills our spacing. It kills our help to the ball.”

The arrival of Arenas, the Trojans highly touted freshman, was supposed to solve that. Instead, 10 games into his college career, Arenas is struggling mightily with his offensive efficiency.

USC coach Eric Musselman reacts to the Trojans' loss to UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Tuesday.

USC coach Eric Musselman reacts to the Trojans’ loss to UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Tuesday.

(Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times)

Arenas had four first-half turnovers in nine minutes and didn’t hit a shot from the field until midway through the second half. The freshman has shot just 8 of 29 over his last three games. He finished Tuesday with 10 points, four rebounds and five turnovers.

“It’s a learning curve for him,” Musselman said. “He’s an incredible talent who has an awesome ceiling, and he’s got an incredible future. But in a game like tonight — he’s learning. You can see it out there. He’s learning on the fly.”

There’s not much time left to learn. The Trojans will face No. 12 Nebraska on Saturday, before traveling to Washington, which beat them earlier in the season, a few days later. A rematch with UCLA awaits at Galen Center the following Saturday.

USC won’t stand much of a chance against that slate if it can’t find some consistency on either end, but the Trojans had their moments Tuesday. They fired out to an early lead thanks to Baker-Mazara, who followed up a 13-point outburst Saturday by knocking down three consecutive 3’s in a three-minute stretch.

Later, near the midway mark of the second half, Baker-Mazara hit another 3 to cut the UCLA lead to just five points. And for a brief moment, it seemed USC might find a way.

But then, in the waning seconds of the shot clock, UCLA star guard Donovan Dent let a deep three pointer fly with 10 minutes remaining. It swished. A sold-out crowd at Pauley Pavilion roared.

Dent finished with 30 points, while the Trojans never recovered. Musselman, meanwhile, was left thinking of something his wife, Danyelle, had said to him.

“Take a 20-pointer scorer off of any team and see what they do,” Musselman recalled his wife saying. “Take Dent off of them and let’s see what they do. That’s a fact.”

But the facts, for USC, are pretty grim at this point. And with just three games remaining, time is running out for the Trojans to change that.

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