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‘Main reason for optimism’ is a belief that war in Ukraine will end in 2026 with Moscow’s ‘objectives’ achieved,’ pollster says.

A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, a state-owned research centre said, as Russian forces make advances on the battlefield and efforts intensify to reach a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

VTsIOM, Russia’s leading public opinion research centre, said on Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment around the outgoing year and expectations for the coming year found Russians are viewing 2026 with “growing optimism”.

“Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic … In other words, while the negative perception of the current situation persists, Russians have become more likely to accept (or believe, hope?) future improvements this year, but they still do so with caution,” the organisation said in a review of its survey findings released online.

In a year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 percent of 1,600 people surveyed ​viewed 2026 as being a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, with 55 percent of respondents linking hope for a better year ‍to a possible end to what Russia officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mamonov ‍said at the ⁠presentation.

Mamonov pointed to the Russian military’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the Ukraine war and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the ‌United States’ role in Ukraine – financially and militarily – as key factors behind the prospects for an eventual deal to end the fighting.

At the conclusion of the conflict, reintegration of Russian military veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border areas, will be the main priorities, Mamonov added.

While the actual level of Russian public fatigue with the war is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on the media, expressions of public dissent as well as the prosecution of those who criticise Moscow’s war on its neighbour, approximately two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, according to independent pollster Levada, the highest number since the start of the war in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments released on Wednesday that he would be willing to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland as part of a plan to end the war, if Moscow reciprocated by also pulling back its forces and allowed the area to become a demilitarised zone monitored by international forces.

In comments to reporters about an overarching 20-point plan that negotiators from Ukraine and the US had hammered out in Florida in recent days, Zelenskyy also said that a similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control.

Russia has given no indication that it will agree to any kind of withdrawal from land it has seized in Ukraine and has long insisted that Kyiv must give up the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbas industrial area before any discussions on the cessation of fighting.

Russia has captured most of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk – the two regions that make up the Donbas.

Zelenskyy also said that figuring out the future control of the Donbas as part of the plan was “the most difficult point”, and creating a demilitarised economic zone in the region would require difficult discussions on how far troops would be required to move back and where international forces would be stationed.

Such discussions should be held at the leaders’ level, he said.