European markets

As the rally in AI stocks fades, investors were cautious at the open on Friday, with European markets opening to mixed sentiment following steep falls in Asian markets.

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Indices in London and Frankfurt quickly moved into negative territory, with the FTSE 100 dropping nearly 0.4% and the DAX losing 0.3% right after the opening. The Paris CAC 40 and the IBEX 35 in Madrid were both up 0.3%, while Milan’s main index was flat. So was the EURO STOXX 50, a benchmark index of 50 blue-chip companies from the eurozone.

Investors are awaiting the latest US non-farm payrolls report and keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East.

The US job data is important for forecasting what the Fed’s next move could be. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said in a market note, “There is now a near 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end. We expect financial markets to be extremely sensitive to today’s data,” adding that this will be the first such report with Kevin Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

In the UK, the latest data from Halifax showed that house prices unexpectedly declined in May. House prices fell 0.1% month on month, but were still up 0.5% year on year, missing expectations for a 1% jump.

Oil markets are awaiting further direction

Oil prices stabilised after falling on Thursday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was slightly down and traded at $94.73 per barrel at 10:00 CET. It had been trading at about $70 per barrel before the start of the war in late February.

Benchmark US crude was little changed at $92.51 a barrel.

Oil prices remain under pressure as the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway crucial for global oil and natural gas transport, remains effectively closed, and the war-induced energy shock is threatening to slow economic growth and fuel inflation in many countries.

American and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative deal last week to extend their ceasefire, but the agreement has not been finalised. Meanwhile, developments in Lebanon have cast doubt on the prospects for a permanent end to the conflict.

On Thursday, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah rejected the latest ceasefire agreement between the Lebanese and Israeli governments.

“While there are few signs of progress in US-Iran talks, the oil market continues to trade on expectations of an imminent deal that would resume flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a report.

Asian markets lose steam as AI craze cools

Wall Street rallied on Thursday after falling oil prices and bond yields eased pressure on US stocks. Banks, small-cap companies and other stocks that had previously been left behind by the euphoria around artificial intelligence led the gains.

Banks also helped lead the market, including gains of 5% for Goldman Sachs, 4.7% for Fifth Third Bancorp and 4.4% for U.S. Bancorp.

They helped to more than make up for losses among some AI stocks, which took a sudden back seat after dominating the market. Analysts have been saying AI stocks may have run too high, becoming too expensive, and that the broader US stock market may be set for a slowdown following an unrelenting streak of nine straight winning weeks for the S&P 500, its longest since 2023.

On Wall Street on Thursday, computer chipmaker Broadcom’s shares sank 12.6% after it issued guidance that fell short of investors’ expectations, raising concerns about the wider AI and technology sector.

US memory chip maker Micron Technology dropped 7.7%, and cybersecurity company CrowdStrike Holdings fell 3.8%.

Still, the benchmark S&P 500 climbed 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7% to a record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged 0.1% lower.

But in Asia, investors dumped key AI-related shares, with South Korea’s SK Hynix plunging 8.6% and Samsung Electronics shedding 5.4%.

The Kospi dropped 5.1% to 8,199.44. The index has roughly doubled over the past year, lifted by gains in major technology companies.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1.3% to 66,573.85, with technology shares leading the decline, even as official data showed that Japan’s real wages rose for the fourth consecutive month. Chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron’s shares fell 7%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.2% to 24,948.96, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3% to 4,045.45.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7% to 8,623.50.

Taiwan’s Taiex gave up 1.3%, while India’s Sensex was up 0.1%.

In other trading early on Friday, the US dollar fell to 159.96 Japanese yen from 160.03 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1635, up 0.2%. Gold prices were down 0.3%, trading at around $4,490.70.

Published on 01/06/2026 – 7:06 GMT+2•Updated
7:10

Crude prices climbed in early Asian trading on Monday after Israeli troops pushed further into Lebanon over the weekend, fuelling investor fears that the broader Middle East conflict could escalate rather than move towards a peace deal.

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At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 2.88% at $89.88 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.43% to $93.33 per barrel.

The Israeli advance has taken place despite a nominal ceasefire in place since 17 April and just days before the next round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, scheduled at the State Department on 2 and 3 June.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed

In other early trade dealings on Monday morning, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed with South Korea’s Kospi climbing 1.31%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.17%. The broader Topix index, however, slipped 0.3%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.21%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.73%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.32%.

Tokyo-listed shares in SoftBank Group, meanwhile, surged 5% after the Japanese conglomerate unveiled plans to invest €45 billion over the next five years to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure in France.

Wall Street pushes into record books

In the US, stock futures were flat after Wall Street pushed further into the record books on Friday. The major indexes extended the market’s recent winning streak and closed out a solid month of gains.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, notching its seventh consecutive gain and ninth straight winning week — the longest such streak since 2023. The benchmark index set an all-time high for the fourth day in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.2%. The Dow and Nasdaq also reached new heights after posting record highs earlier last week.

Big technology stocks have been behind much of the market’s record-breaking streak. Their pricey stock values give them more influence in directing the market higher or lower. In May alone, technology stocks within the S&P 500 rose more than 15%, while most of the sectors in the benchmark index actually lost ground.

“The rally has been largely tech-led and supported by resilient earnings, but the key question is whether it can be sustained,” wrote Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones, in a research note.

Tech stocks also powered the market higher Friday. Microsoft rose 5.4% and Broadcom gained 4.7%.

Additional sources • AP

Almost a decade after British voters chose to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016, the FTSE 100 has been hitting record highs.

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Yet beneath the headline, the financial scars of that vote remain unmistakable.

A new Morningstar analysis titled “The Brexit Decade” laid out the damage in numbers that are hard to dismiss.

Since the referendum, UK equity funds have bled roughly $160 billion in cumulative net outflows, six consecutive years of redemptions that have hardened into a structural loss of confidence rather than a passing cyclical drawdown.

How wide a performance gap has opened between UK stocks and comparable equity markets since the vote? And how has the pound fared?

UK FTSE 100 has trailed Wall Street and continental Europe

The numbers speak for themselves.

The FTSE 100, the benchmark tracking the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, has gained 62% since Brexit.

Over a 10-year window, that works out to a compounded annual growth rate of just under 5%.

Wall Street has run a different race. The S&P 500 has rallied 253% over the same stretch, a 13.4% annualised return — almost three times the pace of UK large-caps.

The gap is not just a transatlantic story.

Within Europe, the German DAX has returned 151% and the Euro STOXX 50 has gained 109%, suggesting Brexit has weighed more heavily on London than on the continental rivals it left behind.

Why UK markets lagged: A pre-existing weakness Brexit made worse

According to Morningstar, Brexit was a catalyst rather than the root cause of the UK market’s underperformance.

The UK equity market entered the 2016 referendum with pre-existing structural headwinds — declining domestic pension demand, capital rotating toward US growth markets, and an unfavourable sector mix tilted toward energy, banks and miners rather than the technology platforms that dominated the 2010s.

Brexit amplified and accelerated these trends, increasing the UK’s perceived risk premium and damaging confidence at a critical moment.

Investor behaviour has been unambiguous. UK allocations were systematically redeployed to the US, while passive strategies gained share as active UK equity economics deteriorated.

The UK’s footprint in global benchmarks has roughly halved over the past two decades, falling from nearly 10% of the MSCI ACWI to around 4% today.

In the most aggressive sterling-allocation fund category tracked by Morningstar, average UK equity weights have collapsed from 40% to 18%, with the freed-up capital systematically redeployed to US equities.

The asset management industry has felt the chill directly.

Around 380 UK equity strategies have closed since 2016 against just over 200 launches, and the share of total assets sitting in passive UK equity vehicles has climbed from 22% to 46% over the same period.

Active large-cap managers, including Columbia Threadneedle, Jupiter, Liontrust, Aviva and Schroders, have absorbed the heaviest outflows. Vanguard, iShares and Phoenix Group have absorbed the inflows.

The damage was then compounded by Covid-19, the global inflation shock, geopolitical conflict, falling foreign direct investment, weaker goods exports and domestic policy missteps — most notably the gilt market crisis of autumn 2022.

Isolating Brexit’s impact is difficult, Morningstar acknowledges, but there is no serious argument that it did not materially worsen outcomes.

Sterling: Weaker where it matters most

The currency market tells a parallel story. The pound is down about 10% versus the US dollar and 12% versus the euro since the Brexit vote.

Against the world’s two reserve currencies, sterling has lost ground.

On the eve of the Brexit referendum, one pound bought €1.31. Almost a decade later, it buys just €1.15 — a roughly 12% loss of purchasing power against the single currency that the United Kingdom voted to step away from.

The picture sharpens against central and eastern European peers.

Sterling has tumbled over 20% against the Czech koruna and 13% against the Polish zloty, both economies that have absorbed manufacturing capacity and foreign direct investment that might otherwise have flowed to the UK.

Notably, the pound has barely held its ground against the Hungarian forint, eking out a 1.8% gain against one of Europe’s most volatile currencies.

Is there a turning point for UK markets?

The narrative is no longer one-way.

Since 2022, UK equities have outperformed US and global markets, driven by a strong value rotation and resilient dividends — without meaningful multiple expansion, according to Morningstar.

Valuations still reflect pessimism, however.

The UK trades at a 30% to 35% price-to-earnings discount to the US, with small and mid-caps the most depressed relative to history and developed peers.

Elevated mergers and acquisitions activity and record share buybacks suggest corporate insiders and overseas acquirers see value where public investors remain sceptical.

Some fund managers see this as the entry point.

Natalie Bell, fund manager on the Liontrust Economic Advantage team, said in a recent note that “valuations remain significantly depressed versus long run averages and other comparable markets,” adding that her team sees a broad-based valuation reversion opportunity for UK equities, particularly in small and micro-caps, even if the timing and magnitude is difficult to predict.

Others remain more cautious. Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JP Morgan, has argued that British equities often do well when investors turn bearish on everything else, given the FTSE 100’s defensive, liquid profile.

He sees the UK index rising 5% to 10% in 2026 but does not hold an overweight, on the view that the UK lacks a clear growth catalyst comparable to those emerging in Germany or China.

Ten years on from the vote, the question for international investors is no longer whether Brexit hurt UK markets — it is whether the resulting discount has now become the opportunity.

Published on
05/05/2026 – 7:12 GMT+2

Oil prices fell back in early trade but remained elevated as investors kept an eye on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and progress on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

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At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.38% lower at $112.86 while US crude, or WTI, was down 2.27% at $104 per barrel. US futures edged 0.1% higher.

Elsewhere, regional trading was thin overnight with markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland China closed for holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,805.98. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5% to 8,649.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.2% lower at 40,626.22.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested on Monday after the US military said it had sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships, while two US-flagged ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key waterway for oil and gas transport remains largely closed despite repeated demands from the US for Iran to reopen the strait and as the United States imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports. US President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan under which the United States would help guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday.

Brent crude, the international standard, surged above $114 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly 6%. Before the war began in late February, it was trading near $70.

Published on
27/04/2026 – 8:27 GMT+2

Germany’s Dax, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB and the UK’s FTSE 100 are expected to open in the green, according to IG data, despite peace talks between the US and Iran coming to a halt.

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The White House called off plans to send envoys to Pakistan for more negotiations and US President Donald Trump cited a lack of progress over the weekend.

“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”

In addition to monitoring progress in the Middle East, investors will also be keeping across central bank decisions this week, including from the ECB and Federal Reserve.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed

Meanwhile, markets were mixed overnight in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh record, surging 1.4% to 60,564.18. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.1% to 6,617.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower to 25,951.86 and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2% at 4,089.04. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,759.40.

Taiwan’s Taiex rallied 2.6%, helped by a revival of buying of tech shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.

Oil prices rise again

In other dealings early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude to be delivered in July, rose $1.44 to $100.57, while US benchmark crude oil added $1.28 to $95.65.

The dollar fell to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59. The euro climbed to $1.1723 from $1.1701.

Published on 21/04/2026 – 12:14 GMT+2•Updated
12:16

Oil prices edged slightly higher, European indices traded flat, while Asian markets surged on Tuesday morning as investors monitored potential US-Iran negotiations and the final 48 hours of the current ceasefire.

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At the time of writing, US benchmark crude was up 8.5% from last Friday’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was around 9.5% higher at roughly $94.5 a barrel.

As for European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 were trading within a 0.2% range.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were all similarly trading within a 0.3% range.

On Wall Street, US futures were also all trading within a 0.3% range with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower by 0.2% on Monday at 7109 points.

Despite US representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, travelling to Islamabad as part of renewed efforts to secure an agreement, no concrete progress on US-Iran negotiations has been announced.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the current ceasefire ends on Wednesday keeping markets in a state of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that the deal currently being negotiated will be better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed by US President Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

Latest on US-Iran negotiations

Following the arrival of US representatives to Islamabad there has been no developments on the negotiations with Iran.

Even though US President Donald Trump confidently declared that there is a historic deal in the works, public statements from major Iranian figures seem to indicate otherwise.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and the person previously heading the talks with the US, made sweeping declarations via X on Monday stating that the country will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and “has prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Previously, other Iranian representatives have also described US demands as “excessive”.

For the time being, markets eagerly await developments and are highly sensitive to any headlines about the situation.

Associated British Foods and Primark demerger

Although European markets are trading flat, major news in the retail consumer sector has come out of the UK.

Associated British Foods (ABF) is poised to announce the outcome this week of a strategic review into demerging its fast-fashion retail arm Primark, from its diversified food business.

The conglomerate, controlled by the billionaire Weston family, has been working with advisers from Rothschild & Co to assess whether the split would maximise long-term shareholder value.

Analysts argue the move makes sense because of the limited operational synergies between the two divisions: the food arm generates steady cash flows from brands such as Twinings, Patak’s, Jordans cereals and Allied Bakeries, while Primark has pursued aggressive international expansion in a fiercely competitive retail sector.

The decision comes as ABF faces tough trading conditions, with the group warning in January of flat annual sales and declining profits, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, including potential increases in petrochemical prices.