emerges

New No-Fault Insurance Effort Emerges in Capitol

Jan Hofmann is a regular contributor to Orange County Life.

Screech! Crunch!

You’ve just been involved in an automobile accident. And the next sound you hear–even before the wailing of the ambulance–will very likely be the raised voices of the drivers involved arguing over whose fault it is.

Sure, there are a few level-headed types out there who calmly and quietly follow the prescribed procedure, exchanging names and policy numbers without further comment. But even those civilized drivers have arguments over fault–they just don’t begin the fight until the insurance claims are filed.

Last week, I told you about my own experience as an auto accident victim, and the tortuous 3-year process I had to go through just to get a marginal out-of-court settlement for my injuries. Forty percent of the money went to my attorney. If I had insisted on seeing my case through to trial, the ordeal would probably have lasted 2 more years, at least.

That’s because the courts are so clogged with auto accident cases. They increased 81% from 1982 to 1986, according to the Judicial Council of California. And according to the RAND Corp., they now account for 43% of all civil cases in the state.

It seems to me there ought to be a better way.

And it seems that way to some other people as well–people such as state Assemblyman Patrick Johnston (D-Stockton), and Judith Bell, director of special projects for the San Francisco-based Consumers Union, which publishes Consumer Reports magazine.

I don’t have any specifics to offer on what I think that better way might be. But they do. The California Trial Lawyers Assn. also has some suggestions for improvements, although the attorneys’ group would prefer to keep the current system intact and so far has not proposed legislation.

Johnston, who chairs the assembly’s Committee on Finance and Insurance, and Consumers Union have drafted a bill that would set up a no-fault insurance system modeled after a successful system in New York State.

We all heard the term “no-fault” bandied about ad nauseam last fall during the insurance industry’s $70-million campaign for Proposition 104, the so-called No-Fault Initiative. And our response at the polls was a resounding “No way!”–Proposition 104 lost by a 3-1 ratio.

Instead, we approved the Ralph Nader-backed Proposition 103–now only partially in effect while undergoing review by the California Supreme Court.

Proposition 103, however, makes no changes in the current tort system, which is based on the concept of fault.

Jeff Shelton, an aide to Johnston, says the new no-fault bill, AB 354, is designed to complement, not contradict, Proposition 103. And it has nothing to do with Proposition 104.

“AB 354 is to Proposition 104 what the Constitution of the United States is to the constitution of Russia,” Shelton says.

“Proposition 104 had 80 pages that had nothing to do with no-fault,” says Bell.

To understand how no-fault compares to the at-fault system, Shelton says, you first have to know a little history.

“The legacy of tort actions is that people should be required to compensate others when they’ve caused others harm through negligence. It began to develop during the Industrial Revolution as a defense against those who are hurt,” he says.

Wait a minute. A defense against victims?

That’s right, Shelton says. “The old English common law wasn’t so interested in negligence. The tort system requires not just that you prove I was the cause of your injury, but that I caused it as a result of a negligent act.”

In AB 354’s no-fault system, neither fault nor negligence would be a factor. If you’re injured in an auto accident, you file a claim with your own insurance company, “just like you would do now with your health insurance if you were sick, or with your homeowner’s insurance if your house burned down,” Shelton says.

“We think it would speed up the process. In New York when this system went into effect, the amount of time people waited to be paid was reduced from 2 years to 2 months, on the average.”

The Johnston no-fault bill also would require insurance companies to settle claims promptly or pay a 2% per month penalty for delays, along with attorney fees if their clients sue them as a result.

Because the insurance companies involved will never argue about who’s at fault in an accident, Shelton says, “many of the frictional costs we have now will be reduced.”

As with any no-fault system, some injured people will not be allowed to sue. But the Johnston bill’s claim limit is double that of Proposition 104–$50,000 total versus $10,000 for medical expenses and $15,000 for work loss. And its definition of what constitutes a serious injury, in which a victim can sue for pain and suffering damages, is much broader than under Proposition 104.

Still, the bill would remove about 80% of current cases from the court system, Bell says.

But wouldn’t an insurance company be inclined to cancel your policy if you make large claims against it? Mine did in 1986, after I filed a $6,000 collision damage claim.

That’s where Proposition 103 comes in, say Shelton and Bell, with its strict rules about the circumstances under which a policy can be canceled or not renewed.

A no-fault system might also reduce insurance premiums, Bell says. In New York, rates have increased only 4% a year since no-fault was instituted. In California, however, rates have gone up 42% since 1985.

But Gary Chambers, president-elect of the Orange County Trial Lawyers Assn. and a member of the state association’s governing board, says insurance companies don’t need cost-saving measures to reduce rates.

“I would like to see Proposition 103 go into effect before we start legislative efforts to help the insurance companies,” Chambers says. Proposition 103 mandates a 20% rate rollback, although that provision has been stayed pending the court’s review.

“No-fault was rejected overwhelmingly by the voters last fall,” Chambers says. “They don’t want it.”

But Chambers agrees that the system needs help. He thinks the first step in speeding things along is “more courtrooms. Statistically there are no more lawsuits per capita in California than in 1915, but there are one-third as many courtrooms available (per capita). The legal system has not kept pace.”

Chambers is also an advocate of mandatory arbitration and other efforts to streamline the process, as have been made in some counties. “In Riverside and San Diego counties they have an accelerated trial program, in which a case is put on a computer system to make it move and avoid the delays,” he says.

It’s Got 12 Gold-Plated Cylinders

We see cars on the road in Orange County that cost more than houses do in many parts of the country–Ferraris, Maseratis, Rolls-Royces. They’re not exactly a dime a dozen here, but status cars are common enough that most of us barely take notice when they pull up next to us. But what’s the ultimate county status car? We would like your opinion, whether it’s in your garage or merely in your dreams. Be as specific as possible when it comes to model, year, color, options, etc.

The Road to Romance

Sure, you’ve heard of life in the fast lane, but how about love in the fast lane? How many of you indulge in a little freeway flirting now and then? And how many have actually dated that attractive stranger one lane over. We’d like to hear.

Send your comments to Life on Wheels, Orange County Life, The Times, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, Calif. 92626. Please include your phone number so that we can contact you. To protect your privacy, Life on Wheels does not publish correspondents’ last names when the subject is sensitive.

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New twist in Adam Peaty saga as it emerges Netflix FILMED his engagement party ‘where relations started to go downhill’

THE road to Adam Peaty and Holly Ramsay’s wedding has been anything but smooth, with a family feud overshadowing their upcoming nuptials.

But I hear fans will soon see the couple in happier times, as their engagement do last December was filmed by Netflix for her chef dad, Gordon’s, docuseries.

Holly Ramsay shared snaps from her engagement party alongside fiancé Adam Peaty and her famous parents Gordon and TanaCredit: Instagram
The couple were joined by their friends and family to celebrate their engagementCredit: Instagram
Adam Peaty and Holly Ramsay share a kiss at their engagement partyCredit: Instagram/@hollyramsayy

They celebrated with friends and family, including Adam’s mum Caroline, who is not invited to their wedding in Bath next month as they are now estranged.

But the scenes are still expected to be part of Being Gordon Ramsay, which sees the chef juggling his personal life with opening five new London restaurants.

A source said: “Adam’s family were at the engagement party, when relations were much better.

“Things went downhill from there.

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“His mum was unhappy some of the family weren’t there and confronted Gordon at the event.

“Guests were made to sign non-disclosure agreements and hand in phones as the party was filmed.”

So many people I know are desperate to find out what really caused the fallout.

The show is due to hit Netflix in February, and I’m sure viewers will be glued to their screens . . . 

Holly’s dad, TV chef Gordon RamsayCredit: Getty
Holly and Adam were set up by Holly’s sister Tillie Ramsay, who competed alongside Adam on Strcitly Come Dancing in 2021Credit: Instagram
The couple have been dating since 2021Credit: Instagram
Holly Ramsay announced their engagement in September after three years of datingCredit: hollyramsayy/Instagram

PUP IS PINKY SPICE

Mel B in a cropped blazer, mini skirt and towering knee-high boots as she clutches her tiny dog CookieCredit: Getty
Kerry Katona was also there and was snapped snogging her boyfriend Paolo MargaglioneCredit: Shutterstock Editorial
Ekin-Su Culculoglu looked fabulous in a white dressCredit: Shutterstock Editorial

MEL B was radiant on the red carpet at The Beauty Awards, but I have a feeling her pet pooch is even more pampered than she is.

The Spice Girls star looked trendy in a cropped blazer, mini skirt and towering knee-high boots as she clutched her tiny dog Cookie as she arrived at the bash in London.

And she had clearly pushed the boat out to prepare her pup for the glitz and glamour of the evening, by dying the fur on her head pink.

Kerry Katona was also there and was snapped snogging her boyfriend Paolo Margaglione, who she met on Celebs Go Dating, while Ekin-Su Culculoglu looked fabulous in a white dress.

WHAT A HORROR, SCARLETT

Scarlett Johansson is set to feature in the next Exorcist filmCredit: Getty

PREPARE for a scare, as one of Hollywood’s biggest stars, Scarlett Johansson, will feature in the next Exorcist film.

She has joined the horror franchise for the upcoming movie, once again coming from writer and director Mike Flanagan.

He said: “Scarlett is a brilliant actress whose captivating performances always feel grounded and real, from genre films to summer blockbusters, and I couldn’t be happier to have her join this Exorcist film.”

The last film, 2023’s The Exorcist: Believer, had an underwhelming reception, but the hope is that having Scarlett on board will breathe new life into the franchise relaunch.

She certainly has form with relaunches, having been part of Jurassic World Rebirth earlier this year, which made $869million.

WICKED WEEKEND AT BOX OFFICE

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande’s hard work has paid offCredit: Splash

ARIANA GRANDE and Cynthia Erivo’s hard work has paid off, because Wicked: For Good managed to conjure up magical box office takings at the weekend.

The movie raked in £17.8million in just three days, making it the biggest opening weekend in the UK since Margot Robbie‘s Barbie in 2023, which took £18.5m.

The figure is 30 per cent higher than the first Wicked film – which came out last November – and the highest ever opening for a stage musical adaptation.

Now it faces a fight to become the biggest film of the year, with hopes it will surpass Jack Black’s A Minecraft Movie, which has taken £56.4million in the UK since its release in March.

But there could well be more of Ariana’s Galinda on screens if fans get their way.

Wicked author Gregory Maguire has announced he is working on a prequel story about the character’s early life called Galinda: A Charmed Childhood, which will be published by HarperCollins next September.

That’s on top of his Elphaba prequel Elphie, which came out earlier this year.

Quizzed on the prospect of more films in the saga, director Jon M. Chu said: “Who knows? But that was never part of the equation. And I just finished this! I know Universal would want to do it, but that’s hard.”

OLLY ON PULL AT ALBUM BASH

Bizarre’s Jack behind the bar with Olly Murs at The Birdcage in Bethnal GreenCredit: Daisy Dickinson

OLLY MURS hosted the launch of album Knees Up at his favourite East London boozer.

And Bizarre’s Jack couldn’t resist getting behind the bar with him at The Birdcage in Bethnal Green to see who could pull the best pint.

While Olly declared his one a “thing of beauty”, Jack’s was a disaster – despite having worked at his local Spoons.

At The Birdcage, in Bethnal Green, Olly said: “We have spent a lot of time in this pub so it’s only fitting we have the launch of the album here with a quiz, games, karaoke, cake and darts.

“There’s always a moment to be a lad, right? And that’s what this album is about – I’m going back to my roots.”


COUNTRY music superstar Zach Bryan is ready to take the UK by storm with a series of massive shows here next summer.

The American singer will perform at Liverpool’s Anfield Stadium on June 12, Edinburgh’s Murrayfield on June 14 and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on June 16 and 17.

Tickets go on sale next Friday at 10am.


WITH three No1 albums to his name, Dave has conquered the world of music and now he’s hoping to make you giggle, too.

The rapper, who went very serious on his latest hit record The Boy Who Played The Harp, has revealed he now wants to become a comedian.

In a new interview with The Face, Dave said: “I’m trying to get into stand-up comedy and one of my sketches is that I don’t know how to whistle.

“I’m inherently shy and introverted.”

Sometimes, that can make for the funniest people.

But when Dave’s not making music in the studio or writing gags, he is trying to create positive change in London – via social media.

He said he regularly sends messages directly to London mayor Sadiq Khan, suggesting how he can improve the capital.

Dave said: “I’m telling him: ‘Yo, this is what I think is going on’.

“Not everyone’s going to have a direct line to Sadiq Khan, but you can put a message out to your MP.”


OASIS have said “there will now be a pause for a period of reflection” after completing their reunion tour – but it sounds like Liam Gallagher is ready to go again.

When asked what he wants for Christmas, Liam said on X: “A European tour”.

He added: “There’s loads more classics we need to play for you when we go out again.”

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But when one fan said they were convinced a new album was on the way, Liam replied: “It’s not, I honestly don’t see the point, it won’t be as good as the old stuff.

“I’m quite happy singing the old stuff I’m not 1 of those w*****s that need to keep pushing it forward or sideways or backwards in some cases. Nostalgia forever.”


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The G20 Without Washington: A New Global Order Emerges

When South Africa opens the 2025 G20 Summit on November 22nd in Cape Town, the meeting will not simply be another high-level diplomatic gathering. It will be a test of what global leadership looks like in an era defined by debt crises, climate shocks, and geopolitical fragmentation. It will also be a summit shaped as much by who is present as by who is absent.

For the first time since leaders began to regularly attend the G20, the United States is not expected to attend at the presidential level. That absence will hang heavily over a summit built around three themes that South Africa has placed at the core of its G20 hosting: solidarity, equality, and sustainability. This is not symbolic branding. These are principles that directly challenge the structure and priorities of the current international system and America’s decision not to participate will only magnify their political weight.

South Africa’s Vision for a More Equal Order

South Africa has been clear about what it wants this G20 to represent. The country’s diplomats have framed the summit as an opportunity to “rebalance global governance” and restore trust between advanced economies and the Global South. That begins with solidarity, not as a moral appeal but as a practical necessity in a world where the gaps in competition are tightening across virtually every sector.

South African officials have emphasized that the world is too interconnected, through supply chains, energy markets, debt exposures, and climate shocks, for any nation to pursue growth alone. Solidarity, in their framing, means shared responsibility for global risks and shared input into global rules.

Expect to see debt restructuring as a key component of the weekend. Dozens of low and middle-income countries are approaching insolvency. Many see the G20 as the only venue capable of compelling creditors, including China, Western banks, and the IMF to negotiate jointly. South Africa intends to push for more predictable mechanisms, faster timelines, and deeper reductions of overall debt.

The theme of equality is expected to be even more pointed. Pretoria has argued that the international financial system remains structurally biased. Voting power at the IMF does not reflect modern economic reality. Climate finance packages distribute risk upward and accountability downward. Supply chain standards reflect the priorities of wealthy states far more than those of producing states.

South Africa wants this summit to pressure advanced economies to move beyond incrementalism and to recognize developing nations as cooperators, not beneficiaries, of global economic design.

Sustainability as an Economic Imperative

As noted in the central theme of the summit, sustainability is the key talking point of the weekend. South Africa is expected to focus on climate adaptation financing, food security resilience, renewable infrastructure gaps, green industrialization, and the economic displacement climate change is already causing.

Pretoria’s message is blunt: sustainability is not the environmental chapter of the global economy, it is the global economy. The safeguards nations build today will determine whether their populations can withstand the shocks of the coming decade.

The Symbolism of America’s Absence

While the summit’s themes are forward-looking, the headlines thus far are dominated by one glaring issue; The United States is boycotting the event, and not sending a single delegate.

This absence is certainly meant to be received as a bold statement. In a moment when most of the global agenda is being rewritten around solidarity, shared burdens, debt relief, and climate vulnerability, the United States is choosing not to stand at the table.

Many delegations will read this as confirmation of what they already suspected: that the U.S. is prioritizing bilateral leverage and transactional deals over multilateral governance. In other words, America is choosing power over partnership.

That decision will have ripple effects. If Washington is not present to influence the language of solidarity or the scope of sustainability targets, other powers will be. The U.S. forfeits not only visibility, but the ability to shape norms that will define the next phase of global cooperation. The strongman tactic will prove less effective as the world continues to accelerate towards a multipolar world, as opposed to a unipolar order where D.C. stands above the rest.

China and India Eager to Fill the Vacuum

China is expected to enter the summit with a confident posture, despite Xi Jinping not attending. Beijing has spent the past several years positioning itself as the Global South’s premier development partner. A G20 centered around equality and solidarity aligns perfectly with China’s messaging: that it represents a more inclusive, less conditional model of global cooperation. This message will be even more prominent with an absentee America. To capitalize on the overall theme of moving away from Western dominated structures, it would be reasonable to assume that many lending systems denominated in the Yuan will be discussed on the sidelines.

India, meanwhile, will frame itself as the democratic partner of choice for developing economies. Expect New Delhi to emphasize supply chain diversification, digital equality, and climate-resilient infrastructure. India will also push for greater representation of Global South nations in multilateral institutions, a message that will resonate strongly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Europe Attempts to Lead

European leaders will arrive prepared to engage deeply on sustainability and climate finance, but without Washington their influence will be limited. Europe cannot match America’s financial firepower nor China’s development machinery.

While Europeans tend to embrace the rhetoric of solidarity, they remain cautious about large-scale debt forgiveness, new climate financing mandates, and reforms that would dilute their institutional voting power. That tension prevents Europe from presenting itself as the natural successor to U.S. leadership, but rather an extension of it in the eyes of many developing nations.

A Summit That Signals a Changing Global Order

If South Africa succeeds in shaping the weekend around solidarity, equality, and sustainability, the summit could represent the most significant shift in G20 philosophy since its creation.

Tomorrow’s G20 will not be remembered for dramatic breakthroughs. It will be remembered for something subtler but more consequential; a turning point in global governance where the United States stepped back and the rest of the world showed it could step forward.

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Strong Evidence That China’s Next Carrier Will Be Nuclear Emerges In Shipyard Photo

Recent imagery indicates that China is progressing with work on a new aircraft carrier, its fourth, which is expected by many sources to introduce nuclear propulsion. A new detail that is now visible of the makings of the ship’s hull structure would appear to directly support this. The development comes just a week after the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) commissioned its first domestically produced carrier, the Fujian. Meanwhile, there are increasing reports that Beijing may also still be working on at least one more conventionally powered carrier, too.

A close-up of the presumed Type 004 aircraft carrier under construction at Dalian. Chinese internet

Imagery of the new carrier, commonly referred to as the Type 004, shows the vessel taking shape at Dalian shipyard in China’s Liaoning province. Visible now is what looks to be a reactor containment structure, which would be a key indicator of its propulsion system. Certainly, the structure is broadly similar to that which is found in U.S. nuclear-powered supercarriers, and there is a general consensus that what we can see here is related to the future installation of a nuclear reactor. However, there remains the possibility that this could be some other test ship or potentially a test module. It could also be a case of this feature looking like it exists for one purpose, but it ends up being for another, although that seems less unlikely.

Renderings related to the Type 004 design that have emerged in the past have shown similarities to the U.S. Navy’s Ford class, as well as France’s future New Generation Aircraft Carrier, both of which are nuclear-powered.

An artist’s concept of a future Chinese aircraft carrier. Chinese internet via @HenriKenhmann

In its latest assessment of Chinese military power, the Pentagon doesn’t explicitly mention a nuclear-powered carrier, but does note that China’s “next generation of carriers” will be characterized by “greater endurance,” which “will increase the striking power of a potential PLAN carrier battle group when deployed to areas beyond the PRC’s immediate periphery.”

In March of this year, Yuan Huazhi, political commissar for the PLAN, confirmed that construction of a fourth carrier had begun, but declined to answer whether it would be nuclear-powered.

Model of a future Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. The label marked China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) suggests this could be an official model. Chinese internet

Almost exactly a year ago, evidence emerged that China had constructed a land-based prototype nuclear reactor suitable for a large surface warship. The so-called Dragon Might project is located at a mountain site outside the city of Leshan, in Sichuan province.

The shift to nuclear power for China’s fourth carrier is hugely significant.

Nuclear propulsion will give the Type 004 effectively unlimited range. It will also help meet the power-generation requirements of ever-improving sensors and other mission systems. A nuclear-powered supercarrier would go a long way toward closing the technical gap with the U.S. Navy, and would see China join France as the only other nation operating a nuclear-powered flattop.

Previous satellite imagery confirmed that construction work on the carrier was underway in Dalian before May 2024, when a module, a section of the flight deck, first appeared in satellite imagery.

A view of the carrier module at Dalian, in a satellite image dated May 17, 2024. Google Earth

Apparently evident in the module were trenches for catapult tracks, suggesting that the Type 004 will have two waist catapults, in addition to the two bow catapults. This would match the arrangement of the Nimitz and Ford classes and would add an extra catapult compared with China’s third carrier, the Type 003 Fujian, which has a single catapult in the waist position.

In other respects, too, the Type 004 is expected to be an overall more advanced design than Liaoning and Shandong, which are by now well established with the PLAN fleet, as well as the Fujian.

The Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian, seen during its commissioning ceremony last week. Chinese Ministry of National Defense

Like Fujian — and in contrast to the two previous carriers — the Type 004 will be equipped to launch aircraft via catapults. The earlier Shandong and the Liaoning are both short takeoff but arrested recovery, or STOBAR, types with prominent ‘ski jump’ takeoff ramps. Catapults offer numerous advantages, especially when it comes to launching aircraft at higher gross weights, which translates to larger fuel and ordnance loads. They can also generally accommodate a wider array of aircraft types, too. This includes larger and slower designs, like the KJ-600 carrier-based airborne early warning and control aircraft, as well as smaller ones, such as drones.

Like the Fujian, the Type 004 will presumably be equipped with an advanced electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), a type of equipment otherwise only in use with the U.S. Navy.

As well as the aforementioned KJ-600, the Type 004’s air wing will likely include the J-35 stealth fighter, supported by advanced developments of the J-15 multirole fighter, including an electronic warfare variant. The carrier is also likely to embark various drones, such as navalized versions of the GJ-11 uncrewed combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), plus helicopters.

A pair of prototype J-35s in close formation. via X

Intriguingly, however, China is reportedly also working in parallel on another new carrier, this one being conventionally powered.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that, in addition to the Type 004 at Dalian, China is poised to start working on a conventionally powered carrier at Jiangnan in Shanghai. This location would make sense inasmuch as this was the yard that built the Fujian. If these reports are correct, the finished product would likely be an improved Type 003 design.

Via Chaos314159/SDF:

“The latest Sentinel satellite imagery suggests that Jiangnan is cleaning a platform outside the dock, raising questions about whether this indicates the start of construction on the so-called Type 003A aircraft carrier.”

Does anyone know more? 🤨🤔 pic.twitter.com/sCSduadhM0

— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) November 11, 2025

Considering China’s huge shipbuilding capacity, it might well make sense to pursue two distinct new-generation carrier designs. An improved Type 003 — which some observers have begun to dub Type 003A — would offer the advantages of a proven design and lower costs, while the more ambitious Type 004 would be more expensive and higher risk.

The model below depicts a follow-on conventionally powered carrier, with the pennant number CV-19, but the source is unknown, and it may or may not be official. Notably, however, the island superstructure has major similarities with that seen on the large-scale, land-based aircraft carrier test facility in Wuhan.

Model of a future Chinese conventionally powered aircraft carrier, CV-19. Chinese internet
The remodeled carrier mockup in Wuhan with its curious island that matches (loosely) the model above. (Chinese internet)

There’s also an argument that China doesn’t necessarily need nuclear-powered carriers for many of its missions. While a nuclear-powered carrier would be a huge advantage for sustained blue-water operations across the globe, for contingencies closer to home, such as in the Taiwan Strait, and even in the disputed South China Sea, a force of conventionally powered flattops is still highly relevant. Conventionally powered carriers have the added advantage that they can be built more quickly and fielded in greater numbers given a set budget, although they are more dependent on a steady supply train, which can be vulnerable in a time of conflict. For its part, even a nuclear-powered carrier still requires a steady supply of other supplies, including fuel for its air wing and for its escorts.

At the same time, it should be noted that China is also working to introduce a number of very large big-deck amphibious assault ships, referred to as the Type 076. Each will feature at least one electromagnetic catapult that is expected to be primarily used to launch drones, as you can read more about here. Again, these would appear to be tailor-made for missions directed against Taiwan, as well as for power projection in the South China Sea.

Continued construction work on what is increasingly likely to be a nuclear-powered carrier, and the possibility of another type of conventional flattop in the works, highlight China’s high ambitions as a naval power and the resources they are willing to invest to achieve their maritime vision. While these developments are significant, it should also be recalled that, for the time being, the PLAN’s fleet of three conventionally powered carriers is still vastly outmatched by the U.S. Navy’s 11 active nuclear-powered supercarriers. Nevertheless, the gap is growing smaller at what seems like an increasing pace.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Thomas is a defense writer and editor with over 20 years of experience covering military aerospace topics and conflicts. He’s written a number of books, edited many more, and has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before joining The War Zone in 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.




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Armenia Emerges as South Caucasus Growth & Investment Leader

Thawing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey are creating opportunities for Armenia to expand its economy and emerge as a regional investment hub.

The South Caucasus has hardly seemed an ideal place for investment in recent years. Azerbaijan’s successful military campaign to gain control over the ethnic Armenian-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh within its borders in September 2023, forced about 110,000 residents to flee to Armenia. Georgia, once a poster child for reform with the area’s most diversified economy, has turned away from the west; its application to join the EU is suspended and tensions have run high since last fall’s disputed elections.

Unexpectedly, it is Armenia—landlocked, with 3 million people and able to export only through Georgia since its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently closed—that has emerged as the region’s bright spot.

Between 2022 and 2024, GDP grew by an annual 9%, and while the pace has slowed, growth remains well above most similar economies, with 5% expected this year and 4% next, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Inflation is running at around 3.6%, kept in check by a cautious monetary policy, and FDI is on a rising trend, with expatriate Armenians leading the way.

“Armenia has benefitted from a sizeable inflow of high-skilled immigrants, mainly from Russia,” notes Dmitri Dolgin, chief economist covering Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries at ING Bank, “which has led to higher remittances, stronger activity in financial and IT sectors, and overall stronger domestic demand for consumer goods, services, and real estate.” Finance, IT, construction, and consumer demand-driven sectors have been the main growth drivers, he says.

The capital of Yerevan has been transformed into a regional magnet for startups and digital professionals, fuelling demand across sectors and lifting productivity, says George Akhalkatsi, head of the EBRD’s resident office there.

“The economic surge has been shaped by a unique convergence of external shocks, internal resilience, strategic adaptation, and a remarkable upswing in growth triggered by a wave of migration,” he says, echoing Dolgin’s observation. “This influx brought not only people but also capital, skills, and entrepreneurial energy, especially in tech and services.” 

An unexpected thaw in relations with Muslim-majority Azerbaijan could have major economic implications for Christian-majority Armenia, now that their three-decade conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has been resolved.

Tensions ease

Thawing relations between Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, beginning with the latter’s recognition of the reality of Azerbaijan’s decisive military victory, led to a peace agreement being concluded earlier this year. On August 8 the two signed the resulting treaty, overseen by President Donald Trump at the White House.

The accord lays the basis for development of the Zangezur transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, sandwiched between Armenia and Iran, to be managed and developed by US companies working in conjunction with Yerevan. Dubbed TRIPP (Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity), the transit route aims to encourage a wider rapprochement between the two countries and throw open opportunities across the region. One analyst suggested that Armenia could “leverage the corridor to integrate into wider trade networks linking the Persian Gulf, Black Sea and Eurasian corridors, [helping)] diversify its economy, attract FDI, and normalize relations with its neighbors.”

The potential for an upset remains considerable, not least due to Armenia’s concerns about its sovereignty, although the involvement of US companies could partially assuage Yerevan’s fears. Sensitivities run high: when Aliyev used the term Zangezur—which has territorial implications for Armenia—in a press conference, Pashinian’s spokesperson said the “narrative presented cannot in any way pertain to the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Only the TRIPP and Crossroads of Peace projects are being implemented, as clearly stipulated in international documents.”

Such sensitivities matter, with parliamentary elections due next year in Armenia. Also of concern is Russian disquiet about its ally getting too close to Washington; Moscow has a military base in Armenia and supplies most of its energy while the country remains an active member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Observers nevertheless are excited about the possibilities.

“Baku has welcomed US involvement, particularly amid increased tensions with Moscow,” says Tinatin Japaridze, analyst at Eurasia Group. “Meanwhile Yerevan, which had previously expressed reservations about foreign oversight at its checkpoints, has reportedly received assurances that its sovereignty and territorial integrity will be fully respected. Discussions are now underway to select a private operator for the corridor.”

Arvind Ramakrishnan, director and primary rating analyst at Fitch Ratings, which rates Armenia BB- with a stable outlook, points to warming relations between Yerevan and Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, as evidence of a wider change within the region.

“The peace framework sets the stage not just for lasting settlement but also improved relations with Turkey,” he argues. “Pashinian and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan held a summit in Ankara in June, and the Turkish market is a huge opportunity for Armenia. Turks are also keen to invest there.”

Sectors that could benefit from Turkish investment include IT, construction, and finance, and small manufacturing and retail are other likely growth areas. Tourism may also benefit, with Turkish Airlines due to start direct flights between the two countries.

ING’s Dolgin lays out a wider menu of possibilities.

“If the peace process holds,” he suggests, “then logistics, warehousing, trucking/rail services, border services, and trade finance could gain, with positive spillovers to SMEs along east-west supply chains. Reduced uncertainty could also help FDI in light manufacturing and services that leverage Armenia’s skilled labor and diaspora links.” A reduced risk of hostilities could lead some Armenians living abroad to repatriate, along with their capital.

The EBRD notes that shipping via Georgia—Armenia’s main transit route at present—is expensive and slow, and that access to Azeri and Turkish ports through open borders with both countries would be beneficial.

“Armenia’s normalization of relationships with its neighbours is key, and the unblocking of regional trade and energy routes should support this process,” says Akhalkatsi. “Armenia has a great potential when it comes to renewable energy, and we could see significant FDI in solar power generation once there is capacity in the electricity grid to export this excess electricity.”

He points to the development of an AI supercomputing hub in Armenia, a mega project announced in July and valued at over $500 million, which could presage a significant increase in FDI while preparing the ground for further tech-sector development in the country and the wider region.  

The EBRD is one of the largest investors in Armenia, with nearly €2.5 billion (about $2.7 billion) committed across 231 projects, 84% of which support the private sector. Earlier this year, it launched a new strategy for the country focused on sustainable infrastructure and the green transition and boosting private-sector competitiveness. The bank is also deploying its flagship Capital Markets Support Programme, supported by the EU, in Armenia.

“The aim is to strengthen Armenia’s local capital markets by supporting corporate issuers of bonds and equity,” says Akhalkatsi. “The program addresses key challenges such as limited expertise in capital market financing and high issuance costs.” 

Challenges Ahead

Aside from maximizing opportunities arising from rapprochement with its neighbors, the government faces other, longer term challenges. Among them is unemployment of around 14%, a situation compounded by a skills mismatch due to years of underinvestment in training and the influx of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Integration of these refugees remains a major financial and political challenge.  

Energy dependence on Russia is another concern, although plans to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear facility with a new nuclear plant, along with ongoing renewable projects, aim to bolster long-term energy security. 

Fitch sees public finances as the main consideration in assessing such plans. “Public debt could hit 60% of GDP by 2030, so any development that slows or reverses this is positive,” says Ramakrishnan. If current hopes are realized, concerns like unemployment, underinvestment, and energy security will recede, he predicts. Lower defense spending would free up monies from the budget while improved relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey bolster trade and investment. Improved public-sector finances would also enable a greater focus on improving the business environment and governance, bolstering FDI across the economy over the long term.

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