Elections

Venezuela’s aviation authority said flights will resume a day after Sunday’s parliamentary elections.

Venezuela has suspended flights from neighbouring Colombia after authorities detained more than 30 people allegedly plotting activities to destabilise the country before Sunday’s parliamentary election.

Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced on state television on Monday that the flight ban was “immediate” and would last for a week.

The arrests were announced just as an independent panel of experts released a report documenting serious human rights abuses committed in Venezuela in the aftermath of the July 28, 2024 presidential election.

Cabello said the antigovernment plans involved placing explosives at embassies, hospitals and police stations in Venezuela. He said authorities had detained 21 Venezuelans and 17 foreigners, some of whom hold Colombian, Mexican and Ukrainian citizenship. Cabello said those detained arrived from Colombia, some by plane, others over land, but had set out originally from other – unnamed – countries.

Cabello, without offering any evidence, said the group included experts in explosive devices, human smugglers and mercenaries, and was working with members of Venezuela’s political opposition.

“The scenario they want to present is that there are no conditions in Venezuela for holding an election,” Cabello said, referring to the opposition.

Colombia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement it had not received any information from Venezuela’s government regarding the detention of Colombian citizens.

Colombia’s civil aviation authority confirmed that commercial flights between the countries had been suspended, while Venezuela’s aviation authority said the measure will last until Monday, May 26 at 6pm local time.

‘Political repression’

The government of President Nicolas Maduro, whose re-election in July 2024 to a third term was rejected by much of the international community as fraudulent, frequently claims to be the target of US and Colombian-backed coup plots.

In an interview over Zoom with the AFP news agency last week, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who went into hiding after last year’s presidential election, pledged a voter boycott on Sunday that would leave “all the [voting] centres empty”.

The opposition says its tally of results from the July vote showed a clear victory for its candidate, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who went into exile in Spain after a crackdown on dissent.

The independent panel of experts backed by the Organization of American States on Monday wrote in their report that Venezuela’s post-election period has seen “the most severe and sophisticated phase of political repression in Venezuela’s modern history”. This included the execution of unarmed protesters, enforced disappearances and an increase in arbitrary detentions. They also noted that the state had expanded its repression targets beyond political opponents and human rights defenders to include poll workers, election witnesses, relatives of opposition members, minors and others.

The diplomatic outcry that followed last year’s election saw Venezuela break off ties and flight routes with several countries. Some airlines have also cancelled operations to and from the country due to unpaid debts.

Venezuela and Colombia reopened flight routes in November 2022, after the election of Colombia’s first-ever leftist President Gustavo Petro, who reinstated bilateral ties broken off in 2019 when then-leader Ivan Duque refused to acknowledge Maduro’s re-election to a second term.

It was called Super Sunday – three elections in European Union nations on the same day.

All eyes were on Romania’s presidential run-off – a crucial vote for the NATO member, in which a centrist victory has been welcomed by the EU and Ukraine.

In Poland, the governing party’s pro-EU candidate and his right-wing nationalist rival are set for a decisive second-round vote in June. But the centrist Warsaw mayor’s slim lead means the country could still lean towards populism.

Perhaps the biggest change was in Portugal, where the centre-right alliance won snap parliamentary elections as the far right won a record number of votes.

Europe’s political centre appears to be holding but for how much longer?

And will these results reassure an EU seeking respite from the turbulence of populist politics?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Pieter Cleppe, editor-in-chief, BrusselsReport.eu

Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations

Antonio Costa Pinto, professor of political science, University of Lisbon

Portugal’s ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is poised to win the most votes in an early parliamentary election, but is short of a full majority, exit polls have shown, paving the way for more political instability in the country.

Sunday’s election, the third in as many years, was called just one year into the minority government’s term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence in March when the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family’s consultancy firm.

Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing, and most opinion polls showed that voters have dismissed the opposition’s criticism.

The election, also dominated by issues such as housing and immigration, follows a decade of fragile governments. And the only one of those governments to have a parliamentary majority collapsed halfway through its term last year.

Exit polls published by the three main television channels – SIC, RTP and TVI – put Montenegro’s AD as receiving between 29 percent and 35.1 percent of the vote, garnering the biggest share but again no parliamentary majority, similar to what happened in the previous election in March 2024.

Outside the polling station where Montenegro voted in the northern city of Espinho, Irene Medeiros, 77, told Reuters the “best candidate must win”, but that she feared more uncertainty ahead.

According to the exit polls, Montenegro’s main rival, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), garnered between 19.4 percent and 26 percent of the vote, nearly tied with the far-right Chega party’s 19.5 percent to 25.5 percent share, which is higher than the 18 percent it won in 2024. Montenegro has refused to make any deals with Chega.

With that tally, the DA could get between 85 and 96 seats, short of the 116 needed for a majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament. It could form a minority government or forge partnerships with smaller parties to obtain a majority.

Most official results are expected by midnight (23:00 GMT).

For the last half century, two parties have dominated politics in Portugal, with the Social Democrats, who head the DA, and the PS alternating in power.

Public frustration with their record in government has fuelled the search and for growth of new alternatives in recent years.

“This campaign was very, very weak, had ridiculous moments, like clownish. Very little was spoken about Portugal within the European Union – it’s like we are not part of it,” teacher Isabel Monteiro, 63, told the Associated Press news agency in Lisbon, adding that she felt “disenchantment” with all parties.

Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto said the new parliament would likely be similar to the last, and it was impossible to predict how long the government would last, as it depended on factors ranging from the international situation to the AD’s ability to reach deals with other parties.

“The only doubt is whether the AD will form a new minority government … or whether it will form a post-electoral coalition with IL, even if this coalition does not guarantee an absolute majority,”, referring to the pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL) party, according to Reuters.

Shortly after casting his own ballot, Montenegro told reporters he was confident stability could be achieved.

“There is a search for a stable solution, but that will now depend on [people’s] choices,” he said.

A second consecutive minority government in Portugal would dash hopes for an end to the worst spell of political instability in decades for the European Union country of 10.6 million people.

For the past 50 years, two parties have dominated politics, with the Social Democrats, who head the DA, and the Socialist Party alternating in power.

The ruling party’s pro-European Union candidate and a right-wing nationalist are set for a decisive second-round showdown on June 1.

Rafal Trzaskowski from Poland’s ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is narrowly ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, in the first round of the country’s presidential election.

It sets up a close battle to determine if the nation stays on a pro-European path or leans closer to admirers of United States President Donald Trump.

On Sunday, Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw Mayor, placed first with 30.8 percent of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki, a conservative historian, who had 29.1 percent, the Ipsos exit poll showed. If confirmed, the result would mean the two will go head-to-head in a run-off vote on June 1.

“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close, and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination.”

Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round.

The campaign has largely revolved around foreign policy at a time of heightened security concerns in Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union bordering war-torn Ukraine, and fears that the US’s commitment to European security could be wavering in the Trump era.

Commenting on X, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has forged a pro-European track, said the next two weeks will decide the future of Poland.

In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.

However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk’s efforts.

If the exit poll is confirmed, other candidates in the first round – including Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left – will be eliminated.

Two updated polls that take into account partial official results will be published later Sunday evening and early on Monday morning

Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of Europe in contrast with PiS, which was frequently at odds with Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.

Social issues have also been a major theme on the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values and Trzaskowski drawing support from liberal voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Immigration and cost of living crisis on voters’ minds as they head to polling booths to elect the next government.

Voting is under way in a general election in Portugal – its third vote in as many years – with immigration and the cost of living crisis the biggest talking points during the campaign.

Sunday’s snap elections were called after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, who leads the centre-right Democratic Alliance, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March, just a year into his minority government’s term.

Montenegro called the vote in response to accusations of conflicts of interest over the activities of his family’s consulting firm. He denied any wrongdoing.

Despite the controversy, opinion polls suggested the Democratic Alliance is set to win the most votes ahead of its main rival, the centre-left Socialist Party, and potentially pick up extra seats.

But Montenegro’s party is predicted to fall short again of the 116 seats needed for a majority in parliament.

Polls indicated the far-right Chega party – which opposes immigration, abortion and LGBTQ rights – is to finish in third place, giving it a possible kingmaker role. But Montenegro has ruled out working with Chega, which won 50 seats in last year’s elections.

The economy, immigration and Portugal’s housing crisis were major issues on the campaign trail while Montenegro appealed directly to voters to give him a strong mandate to end the political instability.

“We have to do our part at home, and we have to be part of the solutions abroad, in Europe and in the world. And for that, we need a strong government,” he told a rally in Lisbon on Friday.

Shortly after voting on Sunday, he told reporters that he was confident the country could achieve stable governance.

“There is a search for a stable solution, but that will now depend on [people’s] choices,” he said.

Candidates Lee, the frontrunner, and his opponent Kim clash in the first of three televised debates.

South Korea’s two leading presidential candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo, have held the first of three televised debates as the race intensifies to replace former President Yoon Suk-yeol, who was removed in April over his contentious move to declare martial law late last year.

Yoon’s ouster has stoked political turmoil in the nation, and a snap election is set for June 3.

During Sunday’s heated debate, Lee, who is the main opposition Democratic Party’s candidate and the frontrunner in the race, faced criticism about being too friendly towards China from his opponents, who cited his comments that South Korea does not need to get involved in China-Taiwan disputes.

But Lee, who considers pragmatism as key to his foreign policy, said the country “should not go all-in” on its alliance with traditional ally the United States and called for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

He added that managing China and Russia relations was important, while noting that security cooperation with the US and Japan is necessary.

Lee also advocated putting South Korea’s interests first in response to US tariffs, more investment in artificial intelligence (AI), protection for unionised workers, and a four-and-a-half-day working week.

There was no need for Seoul to rush to reach a trade agreement with Washington, Lee said during the two-hour debate.

South Korea has begun trade talks with the US and is seeking a waiver from the 25 percent tariffs that US President Donald Trump slapped on the country in April – after which Seoul was one of the first countries to hold face-to-face talks with Washington, following in the footsteps of Japan.

“I think we should prepare well for this situation delicately and competently,” Lee added, also arguing that South Korea needs to nurture high-tech and renewable energy industries to overcome low economic growth.

“We will focus on developing so-called sovereign AI so our people can at least use something like ChatGPT for free like an electronic calculator,” he said.

Kim, candidate for the conservative People Power Party, vowed to create jobs and deregulate to foster businesses.

Kim has also pledged to create a government agency dedicated to innovating regulations and to invest more than five percent of the budget in research and development.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy contracted in the first quarter as exports and consumption stalled, amid fears over the impact of Washington’s aggressive tariffs and political turmoil at home.

Lee holds a lead with 51 percent support in the latest Gallup Korea poll released on Friday, with Kim trailing far behind at 29 percent.

Lee called earlier in the day for constitutional reform to allow a four-year, two-term presidency and a two-round system for presidential elections through a referendum. South Korean presidents currently serve a single five-year term.

He also vowed to curb the presidential right to declare martial law and hold to account those responsible for the December 3 declaration.

Former President Yoon had claimed at the time he declared martial law that antistate and North Korean forces had infiltrated the government. But senior military and police officials who were sent to shut down the country’s National Assembly have testified that he ordered them to detain rival politicians and prevent the assembly from voting to lift his military rule order.

The election result could reshape the direction of the pro-EU and NATO member nation bordering war-torn Ukraine.

Romanians have begun casting ballots in a tense presidential election run-off that pits a pro-Trump nationalist who opposes military aid to Ukraine against a pro-European Union centrist.

Polls opened on Sunday at 7am local time (04:00 GMT) and will close at 9pm (18:00 GMT) in the high-stakes second round of the elections that will impact Romania’s geopolitical direction.

Hard-right nationalist George Simion, 38, who opposes military aid to neighbouring Ukraine and is critical of EU leadership, decisively swept the first round of the presidential election, triggering the collapse of a pro-Western coalition government. That led to significant capital outflows.

Romania’s top court annulled the first round results in December over accusations of Russian interference. The court also disqualified leading nationalist candidate Calin Georgescu, making way for Simion, who is a self-proclaimed fan of United States President Donald Trump.

Centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, 55, who has pledged to clamp down on corruption and is staunchly pro-EU and NATO, is competing against Simion. He has said Romania’s support for Ukraine is vital for its own security against a growing Russian threat.

An opinion poll on Friday suggested Dan is slightly ahead of Simion for the first time since the first round in a tight race that will depend on turnout and the sizeable Romanian diaspora.

‘Battle between nationalist populism and a centralist’

Reporting from the capital, Bucharest, Al Jazeera’s Sonia Gallego said this election is being pitched as a battle between nationalist populism and a centralist.

“The reality is that Romania, an EU and NATO member, shares a border with war-torn Ukraine, the longest among EU members. And that also makes it one of the most vulnerable within the bloc,” she said.

Some analysts have also warned that online disinformation has been rife again ahead of Sunday’s vote.

Elena Calistru, a political analyst, told Al Jazeera: “We have to look at what is happening online. And there we have seen a lot of misinformation.”

“We have seen a lot of … coordinated inauthentic behaviour. We have seen a lot of foreign interference in our elections,” she said.

‘Pro-European president’?

The president of the country has considerable powers, not least being in charge of the defence council that decides on military aid. He will also have oversight of foreign policy, with the power to veto EU votes that require unanimity.

Daniela Plesa, 62, a public employee, told the AFP news agency in Bucharest on Friday she wanted a president “to promote the interests of the country”, complaining that “the European Union demands and demands”.

Andreea Nicolescu, 30, working in advertising, said she wished for “things to calm down a bit” and “a pro-European president”.

Rallies of tens of thousands ahead of the elections have demanded that the country maintain its pro-EU stance.

Other protests, also drawing tens of thousands, have condemned the decision to annul last year’s vote and the subsequent barring of far-right candidate Georgescu.

The cancellation was criticised by the Trump administration, and Simion has said his prime minister pick would be Georgescu, who favours nationalisation and an openness towards Russia.

The vote in Romania comes on a day when Poland also votes in the first round of the presidential election, expected to be led by pro-EU Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki.

Victory for Simion and/or Trzaskowski would expand a cohort of eurosceptic leaders that already includes prime ministers in Hungary and Slovakia amid a political shift in Central Europe that could widen rifts in the EU.

Krakow, Poland – As Adrian Zandberg, leader of Poland’s left-wing Razem (Together) party, prepared to speak to the large crowd at his rally in one of Krakow’s central squares on Wednesday this week, he wasn’t just getting ready to contest Sunday’s presidential election.

Speaking with a revolutionary zeal to the cheering crowd, Zandberg put forward his ideals: Quality public services, affordable housing for all, investment in education and science and the end to a toxic right-wing duopoly in Polish politics.

Zandberg is one of two presidential hopefuls of Poland’s left – the other is Magdalena Biejat of the Lewica (The Left) party. Between the two of them, they represent a political force that has long remained on the margins of politics. Sunday’s contest is also a fight for the leadership of this movement which is popular with urban, generally younger people.

Opinion polls suggest that the final presidential battle – first-round voting takes place on Sunday – will be between the two favourites, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, representatives of right-wing parties Civic Platform and Law and Justice (PiS) which have dominated the country’s political scene for the past 20 years.

Nevertheless, Zandberg was confident and full of passion as he addressed his supporters.

“I believe that we can build a different, better Poland. I believe that we can afford for Poland to become a country with decent public services,” he declared. “That we can afford for people in the 20th economy in the world to stop dying in line to see a doctor. That we can afford for young, hard-working people to be able to rent a roof over their heads for a normal price, so that they can afford to start a family.”

Calling the current system “unconstitutional” and one which “explodes with inequalities”, he called for a change. The system, he said, “is a threat to the future of Poland”.

Like other left-wing politicians, he has been a staunch critic of the neoliberal views of the two main candidates, their lack of commitment to securing affordable housing for people (which is a constitutional right), attempts to privatise the healthcare system, and their seeming embrace of rising anti-migrant sentiment within the country.

Having a ‘real’ effect on Polish politics

The day before, in another square in central Krakow, Biejat, Zandberg’s main competitor for the hearts and minds of Poland’s left and deputy marshal of the Senate, stood before her own crowd of supporters. Unlike Zandberg’s Razem, her party, Lewica, is part of the ruling Civic Coalition along with the centre-right Civic Platform.

Lewica’s decision to enter the coalition government in late 2023 prompted criticism among some on the left, and has become the main bone of contention between the two leftist presidential candidates.

Speaking at her rally on Tuesday, Biejat defended the decision to join the coalition as the right one. According to her, it has allowed her party to have a real effect on politics in Poland.

She listed their achievements: “It is thanks to Lewica being in the government that we managed to introduce a pension supplement for widows. We managed to introduce a pilot programme which shortened working hours. We managed to increase the funeral allowance,” Biejat said.

“We have changed the definition of rape, so that women no longer have to explain to the judges that it was not their fault that someone had hurt them. Thanks to us, parents of premature babies have received additional leave days for each week spent in hospital with a small child.”

The Krakow crowd, albeit smaller than Zandberg’s, cheered Biejat’s declarations of support for the rights of women, LGBTQ people and those with disabilities and for affordable housing.

A fragile resurgence?

The two-term presidency of the left-wing Aleksander Kwasniewsk, an independent but also one of the founders of the Democratic Left Alliance, was highly successful. Under his presidency, which ended in 2005, Poland joined NATO and the European Union and introduced a new constitution. Since his departure, however, the left has been in crisis.

While the ideals of the left-wing candidates barely differ from those of left-wing candidates in other European countries, their appeal in Poland is limited these days as people have become disillusioned with immigration, and resentment towards the one million Ukrainian refugees taking shelter from the war with Russia has grown. According to Politico’s latest aggregate poll, the two leftist candidates are each expected to win 5 percent of the vote.

In the most recent European election in 2024, Lewica secured just 6.3 percent of the vote, the lowest score in its history. In the most recent parliamentary elections of 2023, the party secured just 5.3 percent of the vote. The question now is whether leftist parties can start to make a comeback.

Some observers see signs of a possible resurgence – but it is fragile.

“Any result above 5 percent for each of the candidates [in the upcoming presidential contest] would be a good score. And below 4 percent – a bad one,” said Bartosz Rydlinski, a political scientist at Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw.

He credits Zandberg with “restarting the Razem party project” by appealing to younger voters. “Recent studies show that he is competing with Slawomir Mentzen [the highly popular ultraconservative and free-market-enthusiast leader of the Confederation Party] to be number one among the youngest voters.

“Magdalena Biejat, on her part, represents women from the middle class, living in large cities. She is their mirror image. The election will show which one of them is more popular,” Rydlinski said.

Limited appeal

At the last presidential election five years ago, Robert Biedron of Lewica, who now serves as a Polish member of the European parliament (MEP), won just 2.2 percent of the vote. This time around, the left is expected to do better, but its appeal remains limited.

According to experts, the left has lost much of its traditional support base to the nationalist conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, which attracted voters with generous welfare packages. In this presidential election, Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS, is expected to take 25 percent of the vote in the first round, according to Politico’s aggregate poll.

This is despite the fact that Nawrocki has abandoned Law and Justice’s commitment to social welfare and has embraced free-market thinking with a focus on strengthening an alliance with the US while distancing Poland from the EU.

His main competitor,Rafał Trzaskowski of the centre-right Civic Platform, is polling at 31 percent.

“The left is continuously trying to win back pro-social Law and Justice voters, but so far it has failed,” Jakub Majmurek, a commentator at the left-wing Krytyka Polityczna media outlet, told Al Jazeera. “First of all, because these voters are often calculating and feel that the Law and Justice is a much more credible welfare provider than the weak left.

“Second, these voters are largely pro-church and much more conservative when it comes to social issues than the left.”

A good result for the left in the Sunday election could have the effect of bringing left-wing politics back to the agenda, analysts say, and make some inroads into reversing the long-term trend of far-right and centre-right politicians dominating government.

“If the combined result of Biejat and Zandberg is around 10 percent, in the second election round, Trzaskowski or even Nawrocki will have to try to claim this left-wing electorate somehow,” Majmurek explained.

“That would be the best scenario for the left. Especially if both candidates receive a similar percentage of the vote. That would show that none of them is a hegemon and cannot build the left without the other.”

Poland will hold the first round of voting in its presidential election on Sunday.

This is a hotly contested race between two main candidates – one from Civic Platform, the lead party in the ruling Civic Coalition, and the other an independent backed by the main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS).

While much of the power rests with the prime minister and parliament in Poland, the president is able to veto legislation and has influence over military and foreign policy decisions. The current president, Andrzej Duda, who is from PiS, has used his veto to block reforms to the justice system that the government has been trying to enact for some time.

Furthermore, reports of foreign election interference have recently spooked voters who are primarily concerned with issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, immigration, abortion rights and the economy.

Here is all we know about the upcoming vote:

How does voting work?

Polish citizens aged 18 or older can vote. There are about 29 million eligible voters. On Sunday, they will select a single candidate from a list of registered presidential candidates. If a candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote, they win the election. If all candidates fall short of the 50 percent threshold, the country will vote in a second round for the two top contenders from the first round on June 1. The winner of that contest will become president. The election is expected to go to a second round.

Presidents may serve a maximum of two five-year terms in Poland. The current president reaches the end of his second term on August 6.

What time do polls open and close in Poland?

On May 18, polls will open at 7am (05:00 GMT) and close at 9pm (19:00 GMT).

What’s at stake?

In 2023, current Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition ascended to power, ending eight years of rule by the PiS party’s government.

While Tusk promised to reverse unpopular judicial reforms enacted by PiS, President Andrzej Duda, a former nationalist ally of the party, has hampered Tusk’s efforts by using his presidential power to veto legislation.

What are the key issues?

Key issues dominating this election include the Russia-Ukraine war.

When the war first broke out in February 2022, Poland threw its full support behind Ukraine, welcoming more than one million Ukrainian refugees who crossed the border without documents.

On May 10, Tusk, alongside other European leaders, visited Kyiv and gave Russian President Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to enact an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.

However, relations between Poland and Ukraine have grown tense. Earlier this year, Polish farmers led protests, arguing the market had been flooded with cheap agricultural products from Ukraine.

There are also emerging reports of Ukrainian refugees facing discrimination in Poland, as well as resentment about welfare provided to them.

There have been growing fears of a spillover of Russian aggression to Poland due to its proximity to Ukraine. On May 12, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Warsaw said an investigation had revealed that Moscow’s intelligence agencies had orchestrated a massive fire at a shopping centre in Warsaw in May 2024.

Several candidates for the presidential election have proposed raising the defence budget to 5 percent of GDP.

Poles also have economic concerns about taxes, housing costs and the state of public transport.

Abortion is a key issue in Poland. Poland has some of the strictest abortion laws in Europe. Women are only allowed to have abortions in cases of rape or incest or if their life or health are at risk.

In August 2024, Tusk acknowledged that he did not have enough backing from parliament to deliver on one of his key campaign promises and change the abortion law.

Opinion is also split on whether LGBTQ rights should be restricted or expanded in the country.

The country is also divided over how involved it should be with the European Union (EU), with the PiS taking the stance that the country would be better off forming an alliance with the United States than the EU.

Who is running?

A total of 13 candidates are vying for the presidency. The top four candidates are:

Rafal Trzaskowski

Trzaskowski, 53, has been the liberal mayor of Warsaw since 2018 and is an ally of Tusk, affiliated with the PM’s political alliance, Civic Coalition. He is also a senior member of the Civic Platform party (PO), which heads the Civic Coalition. Trzaskowski was narrowly defeated by Duda in the 2020 presidential election.

During his time as mayor, he was lauded for investing in Warsaw’s infrastructure and culture. He proposes to increase defence spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and to develop Poland’s arms and technology industry.

Trzaskowski has liberal views. He is pro-Europe and one of his campaign promises includes strengthening Poland’s position in the EU. Another one of his pledges is to relax abortion laws, however, he has been quiet on this issue during the run-up to the presidential election. He has also been supportive of the LGBTQ community and has attended pride parades. This could alienate some more conservative voters who live outside urban centres.

For this reason, right-wing voters may vote against him in the second round of voting. Trzaskowski could also lose support from centrist and progressive voters, who are frustrated by Tusk’s inability to bring reform to abortion laws.

Karol Nawrocki

Nawrocki, 42, is a conservative historian standing as an independent candidate backed by the PiS party.

His academic work has been centred around anti-communist resistance. He currently administers the Institute of National Remembrance, where his removal of Soviet memorials has angered Russia. He administered the Museum of the Second World War in northern Poland from 2017 to 2021.

His campaign promises include lowering taxes and pulling Poland out of the EU’s Migration Pact and Green Deal. He also wishes to allocate 5 percent of GDP to defence. Nawrocki is critical of giving more rights to LGBTQ couples.

Nawrocki has had a fair share of controversies in the past. In 2018, he published a book about a notorious gangster under the pseudonym “Tadeusz Batyr”. In public comments, Nawrocki and Batyr praised each other, without revealing they were the same person.

Slawomir Mentzen

Mentzen, 38, is a far-right entrepreneur who leads the New Hope party, a member of the Confederation coalition. He has degrees in economics and physics; owns a brewery in Torun; runs a tax advisory firm; and is critical of government regulation, wishing for significant tax cuts.

Mentzen has used social media platforms to connect with younger voters.

He believes that Poland should not take sides in the Russia-Ukraine war. He wants to ensure the Polish constitution overrides EU laws and wishes to withdraw from the EU Green Deal. He opposes LGBTQ rights and opposes abortion, even in cases of rape.

Ahead of the 2019 election for the European Parliament, he said: “We don’t want Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxes or the European Union.” Since then, he has tried to distance himself from this statement.

While Poland offers free higher education, Mentzen dropped in opinion polls after he advocated for tuition fees in state schools in late March.

Szymon Holownia

Holownia, 48, is a former journalist and television personality-turned-politician. He is the speaker, or marshal, of the lower house of parliament, the Sejm.

In 2020, he founded a centrist movement called Polska 2050, which burgeoned into a party and ended up joining Tusk’s coalition.

Holownia wishes to promote regional development alongside better access to affordable housing and improving the public transport system. He says he wants to reduce bureaucracy, support Polish businesses and develop Poland’s domestic arms production capabilities.

Other candidates

Three leftist candidates are also running the election including Deputy Senate Speaker Magdalena Biejat, 43, an advocate for women’s rights, minority rights, affordable housing and abortion access; Adrian Zandberg, 45, who has made similar promises to Biejat; and academic and lawmaker Joanna Senyszyn, a former member of the Polish United Workers’ Party.

Other candidates include far-right Grzegorz Braun, who was pilloried globally for using a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in parliament in 2023, and journalist and YouTuber Krzysztof Stanowski, 42, who does not have a political programme and wants to show Poles behind the scenes of the campaign while raising money for charity.

What do the opinion polls say?

As of May 12, Trzaskowski was in the lead with the support of 31 percent of voters, according to Politico’s polling aggregate. Nawrocki was in second place with 25 percent, while Mentzen had 13 percent and Holownia had 7 percent.

When will we know the results?

As soon as polls close, Ipsos will release an exit poll based on surveys undertaken at 500 randomly selected polling stations. While this is not the official result, it is expected to be highly indicative of which way the vote is going. Partial results may start to emerge on Sunday night or Monday.

In Poland, voting always takes place on a Sunday. In 2020, the official results for the first round of voting were confirmed on Tuesday morning.

What is the election interference controversy about?

On Wednesday, Poland said it had uncovered a possible election interference attempt via advertisements on Facebook.

“The NASK Disinformation Analysis Center has identified political ads on the Facebook platform that may be financed from abroad. The materials were displayed in Poland,” according to a statement by NASK, which is Poland’s national research institute dealing with cybersecurity. “The advertising accounts involved in the campaign spent more on political materials in the last seven days than any election committee.”

The NASK statement did not specify which countries’ financial backers of the campaign were believed to be based in. Fears of Russian election interference are high in Europe after Romania declared a do-over of its November presidential election after reports emerged of alleged Russian election interference. The first round of the repeat election took place on May 4, with the second round due to happen on May 18. This was after far-right politician Calin Georgescu, who was polling in single digits during the campaign, surprisingly emerged victorious.

Lisbon, Portugal — Portugal is summoning its citizens to vote in their third general elections in three years on May 18, amid rapid shifts to the country’s political landscape that have left the country facing the prospect of yet another fractured mandate after decades of relative stability.

This year’s snap election comes at a moment when rising living costs, a housing crisis, the future of the national health service and perceptions of immigration are all significant issues on the public agenda – as is a corruption scandal that precipitated the upcoming vote.

The government of Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), fell in March, when parliament voted against a motion of confidence, triggering elections. It’s the second Portuguese government in a row that had left office under a cloud of corruption allegations.

Now, the country’s 10 million voters will need to choose the makeup of their next parliament, where 230 seats are up for grabs – and a divided mandate appears likely.

‘A very serious case’

Montenegro led a right-wing minority government for less than a year before accusations of corruption emerged over a consultancy firm that he set up, called “Spinumviva”.

A string of media investigations into potential conflicts of interest revealed the firm had received thousands of euros a month in consultancy fees from previously undisclosed clients, including companies with government contracts.

When a defiant Montenegro appeared on national television back in March to issue his response, he insisted that he had not broken the law because he had transferred his shares in the company to his wife and sons before he became prime minister in 2024.

But his defence is controversial, say experts.

“Under Portuguese civil law, even if it was possible to sell shares to someone you’re married to, you’d still be a joint owner of them, and, therefore, still able to profit from them,” said Portuguese lawyer and political commentator Carmo Afonso. “Spinumviva is a very serious case – and revelations are still emerging.”

Just hours before a live debate a few weeks later with his main rival, the Socialist Party’s Pedro Nuno Santos, Montenegro submitted an updated declaration of his business interests to the national online transparency portal.

According to an investigation by the Portuguese newspaper Expresso, some of Spinumviva’s clients earned at least 100 million euros ($112m) a year in government contracts during Montenegro’s mandate alone. Montenegro, meanwhile, says that he has not been involved with Spinumviva since becoming prime minister in March 2024.

How the race is shaping up

Still, the attention on Spinumviva may not have damaged Montenegro’s chances of re-election. According to Portuguese political scientist Vicente Valentim, “perceptions of corruption in Portugal are traditionally high, but it may not to be a significant factor in how people vote”.

Despite the ongoing scandal, the conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition, in which Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) is the majority party, leads the race, and is polling at 34 percent.

And according to a poll by Lisbon’s Catholic University, a third of voters think the Spinumviva case and its potential legal ramifications are irrelevant to the elections.

Montenegro’s brief period in government has seen him enjoy the support of the professional class, riding on a budget surplus attained by the previous government of the centrist Socialist Party (PS) of Antonio Costa, who was prime minister from 2015-2024.

Meanwhile, “the loss of the charismatic Antonio Costa has affected the PS’s popularity,” says Afonso. “Costa is a hard act to follow.”

“Ironically, the more Spinumviva gets talked about, the better it is for Montenegro, is what some commentators are saying,” says Afonso, who believes Montenegro was well aware of this when the government collapsed. “Montenegro chose to bring a vote of confidence in parliament knowing full well that he would lose it, because there really couldn’t be a better time to hold elections – better for him, that is.”

The PS, by contrast, is polling several points below the AD at about 26 percent.

Currently, it looks highly improbable that any of the parties or alliances running will win an outright majority of 116 seats or more. That leaves two likely possibilities: either a post-electoral coalition of parties that forms a majority in alliance; or a minority government, which needs the tacit support of other parties in parliament to push through essential legislation, including budgets.

About half a dozen parties are serious contenders for the rest of the 230 seats in parliament. These include the traditional players such as the Communist Party-Greens alliance (CDU), the Left Bloc, and the People-Animals-Nature party, as well as new parties including the Europeanist-Socialist party Livre (“Free”), the radical right-wing Iniciativa Liberal (“Liberal Initiative”), and the extreme right Chega (“Enough”).

The rise of the far right

Chega, which opposes immigration, abortion, and LGBTQ rights, and has targeted minorities like Portugal’s substantial Romani population, won a surprising 50 parliamentary seats in the 2024 elections, with Andre Ventura as leader. It won 18 percent of the national vote.

The party is currently in third position in the polls and is predicted to win close to what it did in the last elections.

Valentim, the political scientist, warns against interpreting Chega’s support base as representing a protest vote.

“A lot of people who vote for them already held the ideas they espoused, long before the party actually appeared; generally, the rapid growth of radical right-wing parties is not down to them changing people’s ideas,” he said. “So, Chega going from 1 percent of votes, to 7 percent, to 18 percent over the course of the last three elections doesn’t mean that the number of people with right-wing ideas has grown in those proportions.”

What it means, he said, is that “more and more people who already had those ideas, but used to feel that they were not socially acceptable, and that they would be judged, or made social pariahs or disadvantaged professionally because of them, no longer feel that”.

With the campaign period now well under way, Chega has been appealing to potential voters who might normally abstain. While polls suggest the party might not make major gains compared with the 2024 election, Valentim said he believes it’s here to stay.

“Portugal was previously the exception in the European landscape, because no far-right party had had any notable success there; that’s no longer the case,” he said. “We can be fairly certain in saying that Chega is not going to just disappear, as suddenly as it appeared. The political landscape has changed, definitively.”

And that has a range of consequences, he said.

“Citizens and politicians feeling at greater ease to express extreme right-wing ideas in public,” he said. There’s “greater polarisation around specific issues such as immigration and minority rights, and, of course, the dilemma of how the more traditional centre right deals with the far right”.

Under Montenegro, the PSD has maintained it will not cut a deal with Chega. However, its options for forming a government are limited. According to Valentim, centre-right parties often try to overcome the popularity of new radical right parties by shifting further right themselves – including, at times, by forming partnerships with them.

That rarely actually works for the centre right, he said. “Power-sharing agreements with the extreme right legitimise those parties, without actually bring any long-term gains for the centre right,” he said. “Studies have shown that the rapprochement of the centre right to the far right neither takes votes away from the far right, nor does it bring more votes back to the centre right. But it does result in a normalising of extreme right discourse, turning extreme right-wing ideas like xenophobia more acceptable.”

This effect was visible even before election campaigning began on the issue of immigration, which Portugal has actively encouraged in recent years. Almost a quarter of Portuguese companies now employ foreign workers, according to the Bank of Portugal. According to a study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation in December, the number of immigrants in Portugal tripled between 2015 and 2023.

However, right-wing parties have also stirred a backlash against immigration, and in particular the presence of agricultural and shop workers from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The FMS Foundation report showed that negative perceptions of migrants outweighed positive ones considerably – with 67 percent of the people they polled responding that they thought the presence of foreigners was associated with an increase in crime. Last year, Chega brought a motion to parliament for a national referendum on immigration but was voted down.

Earlier this month, Montenegro’s government notified 4,500 migrants that they would have to leave the country within 20 days. Following the permanent closure of the border agency SEF in 2024, the government cancelled a scheme that allowed migrants originating from outside the European Union to apply for residency once already working in the country. Some of those facing deportation have been waiting several years for a reply on their applications, and thousands more such notices are expected in the coming months.

These policies sit in contrast with Portugal’s demographic situation, with a falling birthrate, an ageing population and a declining fertility rate. In addition, it suffers from an ongoing trend of youth emigration – about 30 percent of the population between 15 and 39 is living abroad, one of the highest rates in the world.  A study from Porto University in December 2024 said that Portugal would need to ensure 138,000 immigrants arriving per year to guarantee economic growth over the next decade.

Housing and costs

Meanwhile, a housing crisis is the biggest ongoing issue in Portugal in the run-up to the elections. House prices rose by 106 percent between 2015 and 2023, according to the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, compared with 48 percent in Spain and 8 percent in Italy. The increase in property value has been caused by deregulation, large influxes of foreign investment in properties, speculation on real estate and a tourism boom.

As a result, young people and professionals are increasingly unable to afford housing in cities like Lisbon and Porto, where soaring rents have also prompted the closures of small businesses, and left low-income tenants stretched to pay rents or facing eviction.

Rising housing prices have also contributed to a general increase in the cost of living, with energy and food prices rising. Factors such as the war in Ukraine – because of its effect on the global supply chain – have amplified this crisis.

What’s next?

As of Thursday night, almost 20 percent of voters were undecided, meaning a range of outcomes is possible after the Sunday vote: An AD-led minority government, a less likely PS-led minority government, or a coalition between a variety of political players.

If that happens, it would be the second time a row that Portugal will not have a majority government: The AD won 80 seats in 2024 out of 230, just ahead of the PS, which won 78.

To Valentin, this is no longer an anomaly – he expects this scenario to be repeated in future elections, too.

“Portuguese democracy went through a very long period of relative stability,” he said, reflecting on the fact that Portugal this year celebrated 50 years since its first fully free elections, following the overthrow of the Estado Novo dictatorship. “For decades it had a multiparty system that barely changed, with governments alternating between the centre left PS and centre right PSD, and some interventions by a small number of other parties.”

“But now there’s been a lot of changes in a short period of time, with more and more new parties having made it into parliament,” he added.

That has meant fewer votes for the mainstream centrist parties, the PS and the PSD, as newer parties like Chega eat into their traditional base.

“We’re now entering a new paradigm,” said Valentin. “And it remains to be seen how these different political forces will balance out.”

As Bolivia hurtles towards a hotly contested August 17 presidential election, two major shake-ups may shape the outcome of the race.

On Wednesday, incumbent President Luis Arce announced he would abandon his bid for re-election after a five-year term defined by turmoil.

“Today I firmly inform the Bolivian people of my decision to decline my candidacy for presidential re-election in the elections next August,” he wrote on social media.

“I do so with the clearest conviction that I will not be a factor in dividing the popular vote, much less facilitate the making of a fascist right-wing project that seeks to destroy the plurinational state.”

That same day, Bolivia’s constitutional court also ruled that Arce’s former political mentor, now rival, Evo Morales, could not run for another term as president, upholding a two-term limit.

But the left-wing Morales, the embattled former president who previously served three terms in office and attempted to claim a fourth, remained defiant on social media afterwards.

“Only the people can ask me to decline my candidacy,” Morales wrote. “We will obey the mandate of the people to save Bolivia, once again.”

The two announcements on Wednesday have added further uncertainty to an already tumultuous presidential race, where no clear frontrunner has emerged so far.

Arce’s decline

Since his election in 2020, Arce has led Bolivia, following a political crisis that saw Morales flee the country and a right-wing president briefly take his place.

But Arce’s tenure has been similarly mired in upheaval, as his relationship with Morales fractured and his government saw its popularity slip.

Both men are associated with a left-wing political party known as the Movement for Socialism (MAS), which Morales helped to found. Since its establishment three decades ago, the group has become one of the most prominent forces in Bolivian politics.

Still, in the lead-up to August’s election, Arce saw his poll numbers decline. Bolivia’s inflation over the past year has ballooned to its highest level in a decade, and the value of its currency has plummeted.

The country’s central bank has run low on its reserves of hard currency, and a black market has emerged where the value of the Bolivian currency is half its official exchange rate. And where once the country was an exporter of natural gas, it now relies on imports to address energy shortages.

While experts say some of these issues predate Arce’s term in office, public sentiment has nevertheless turned against his administration. That, in turn, has led some to speculate that Bolivia could be in store for a political shift this election year.

Arce himself has had to deal with the power of a rising right-wing movement in Bolivia. In 2022, for instance, his government’s decision to delay a countrywide census sparked deadly protests in areas like Santa Cruz, where some Christian conservative activists expected surveys to show growth.

That population increase was expected to lead to more government funds, and potentially boost the number of legislative seats assigned to the department.

Arce also faced opposition from within his own coalition, most notably from Morales, his former boss. He had previously served as an economy and finance minister under Morales.

The division between the two leaders translated into a schism in the MAS membership, with some identifying as Morales loyalists and others backing Arce.

That split came to a head in June 2024, when Arce’s hand-picked army general, Juan Jose Zuniga, led an unsuccessful coup d’etat against him. Zuniga publicly blamed Arce for Bolivia’s impoverishment, as well as mismanagement in the government.

Morales has seized upon the popular discontent to advance his own ambitions of seeking a fourth term as president. After the coup, he launched a protest march against his former political ally and tried to set an ultimatum to force changes.

After dropping out of the 2025 presidential race on Wednesday, Arce called for “the broadest unity” in Bolivia’s left-wing political movement. He said a show of strength behind a single candidate was necessary for “defeating the plunderers of Bolivia”.

“Only the united struggle of the people ensures the best future for Bolivia. Our vote will be united against the threat of the right and fascism,” he wrote on social media.

Morales continues to fight term limits

But a wild card remains on the left of Bolivia’s political spectrum: Morales himself.

Considered Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, Morales remains a relatively popular figure, though recent scandals have dented his broad appeal.

First elected as president in 2005, Morales was re-elected twice. But his attempts to remain in office culminated with the 2019 election and subsequent political crisis, which saw Morales resign and flee abroad amid accusations that his victory was the result of electoral fraud.

Morales has long sought a fourth term as president. In 2016, a referendum was put to Bolivia’s voters that would have scrapped presidential term limits, but it was rejected. Still, Morales appealed to Bolivia’s Constitutional Court, and in 2019, it allowed him to seek a fourth term.

That led to accusations that Morales had overturned the will of the voters in an anti-democratic power grab.

But the court has since walked back that precedent, reversing its decision four years later in 2023. It has since upheld that decision on term limits multiple times, most recently on Wednesday, effectively barring Morales from the upcoming August race.

Separately, last October, Morales faced charges of statutory rape for allegedly fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl while president. Morales has denied any wrongdoing and has sought to evade warrants issued for his arrest.

Media reports indicate he is holed up with supporters in the rural department of Cochabamba in the north of Bolivia.

Still, in February, Morales announced his bid for re-election. And on Wednesday, he denounced the Constitutional Court’s latest ruling upholding Bolivia’s two-term limit as a violation of his human rights. He also framed it as part of a broader pattern of foreign interference.

“It is a political and partisan ruling that obeys the orders of the eternal enemy of the people: the US empire,” he wrote on social media.

A near-complete ballot count shows the Socialist Party won 52 percent of the votes or 82 of 140 parliamentary seats.

Albania’s ruling Socialist Party has won the country’s parliamentary elections, according to a near-complete vote count, securing Prime Minister Edi Rama an unprecedented fourth term in office.

With about 96 percent of ballots counted, the official results on Tuesday showed the Socialist Party got 82 seats in the 140-seat parliament with 52 percent of the votes.

The opposition centre-right Democratic Party secured 51 seats with 34 percent of votes. Three other small parties will take the rest of the seats.

The threshold for entry into the assembly in Albania is one percent for parties and five percent for party alliances.

The full results are expected later on Tuesday. If confirmed, the results would be an increase from the last election, where Rama’s party won 49 percent of the vote, and would give him a majority to form a government.

Delay possible

The Central Election Commission, the electoral executive, has said that by law, the final results come out 48 hours after the vote ends.

The results may be delayed following a request of the opposition not to consider about 53,000 ballots mailed from the diaspora in neighbouring Greece, claiming they are manipulated.

For the first time, those in the diaspora could cast postal votes. About 195,000 mailed in their votes.

Eligible voters in Albania and abroad voted to elect 140 lawmakers for a four-year mandate in the Balkan nation. Because of mass emigration, the country of 2.4 million people has a total of nearly 3.7 million eligible voters.

Diaspora votes from Greece may move a number of seats in three or four areas in favour of the ruling party. The opposition claims they were manipulated by Socialist supporters. The postal company said it has confirmation signatures of all the voters in Greece.

Rama, who has been in power since 2013, focused his campaign on working to gain membership in the European Union by 2030. Sali Berisha, the candidate of the conservative Democratic Party, argued that Albania still is not ready for the bloc’s membership.

Some analysts were surprised by the strength of Rama’s success, expecting that a series of corruption scandals and the recent unrest in the country due to a crackdown on the opposition would affect his results.

A joint international observation mission noted that despite being competitive and professionally managed, the election process so far was marked by the ruling party’s misuse of public resources, a confrontational and polarising tone, the two main political parties using divisive language, non-transparent financing, and unbalanced media coverage of smaller parties.