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The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is heating up with less than 24 hours to go before the winner is announced at a glitzy ceremony in London.

A three-way contest between Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane leads the debate in the run-up to football’s most prestigious individual honour.

Yamal, Spain’s 19-year-old prodigy, and France’s 2018 World Cup winner Mbappe have both publicly endorsed themselves for the honour, while the unstoppable Kane of England has been relatively shy in campaigning for himself.

Predictions are pouring in thick and fast as we inch closer to the award ceremony at the London Palladium.

Ballon d’Or predictions: Who has AI picked as the winner?

According to data released by Avisia, a French data analysis and artificial intelligence firm, Yamal is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The Barcelona winger is tipped to have a 23 percent probability of lifting the trophy, awarded to the best footballer of the 2025-26 season.

The data and AI consulting firm chose Kane as a close second, with a 21 per cent probability, while Mbappe ranked third at 19 percent, tied with Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner.

The top five list is rounded out by Lionel Messi given an 18 percent chance to win for a record-extending ninth time.

Avisia claims it correctly identified the top five for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, won by Ousmane Dembele.

Even though Yamal is Avisia’s top pick, it is Kane who the bookmakers see as the outright favourite, with about 70 percent probability.

What are the predictions of players and experts?

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone thinks his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves to lift the golden ball.

“After the World Cup, he played at his age… No doubt about it,” Simeone said.

Former Italy international Marco Materazzi echoed those thoughts.

“With all due respect to Yamal, I think Messi showed, at 38 years old, he’s in a different league,” he added.

Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or, backed England captain Kane and his attacking partner at the 2026 World Cup.

“He works so hard for it, and he’s a very honest and hard-working person,” Bellingham said. When asked if Kane could win, he added, “It’s definitely possible”.

Fellow England international Anthony Gordon sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal.

“What Lamine has achieved at such a young age… the kind of player he is, is ridiculous. He’s on a whole other level,” said Gordon.

Mbappe, on the other hand, has the backing of his Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni, who said the Frenchman had “an incredible season”.

Yamal, Kane or Mbappe: Who will win the Ballon d’Or?

Looking purely at individual statistics, Mbappe leads the race as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League’s leading marksman with 15.

Mbappe, furthermore, also won the World Cup’s Golden Boot and set the record for most World Cup goals (12).

Those staggering statistics make him a strong contender alongside Kane, who scored an incredible 73 goals last season – the most by any player since Messi netted 82 in 2011-12.

But Mbappe failed to win a trophy with either club or country, while Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern but guided England only to a third-place finish. The lack of major titles weakens their case.

This is where Yamal stands out.

The youngster won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barca, even though on the personal front, his statistics weren’t the greatest, with injury marring his campaign.

Recent history suggests that winning a title in one of the major tournaments has become almost a prerequisite.

Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d’Or winners failed to lift any of the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America during the year they were honoured.

That bodes well for Yamal, who is bidding to become the youngest winner, hoping to surpass Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.

Kane, who scored 73 goals for club and country last season, is among the favourites for award with Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe.

Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane is hoping for a “special night” at Monday’s Ballon d’Or ceremony in his hometown of London, where the England captain is the bookies’ favourite.

The 33-year-old scored 73 goals for club and country last season, the second-best mark in history after Lionel Messi’s 82 in 2010-2011.

But in continuing his habit of tormenting old foes Arsenal on Wednesday, the former Tottenham striker again demonstrated how complete a player he has become since moving to Germany in 2023.

At one point, dropping back to take goal kicks to ignite Bayern’s attack, Kane also set up Alphonso Davies’s first-half equaliser with a pinpoint long-range pass.

In the second half, Kane won and then converted a penalty, giving Bayern the lead before England teammate Declan Rice scored late to grab a share of the spoils for Arsenal with a 2-2 finish.

Open field

Kane is odds-on to claim what would be his first Ballon d’Or, but the outcome is anything but certain in one of the most open fields in recent memory.

The Bayern striker faces stiff competition from Spain’s World Cup-winning duo Lamine Yamal and Rodri along with France captain Kylian Mbappe and teammate Michael Olise.

While Yamal and Mbappe in particular have taken to the airways to extol their suitability for the award, Kane has been typically circumspect despite constant media questioning.

Repeatedly asked about his chances after Wednesday’s star showing, Kane said: “I try not to think about it. Obviously, it’s hard.

“There’s rumours flying around, so you try and stay away from it. I’m going to try and enjoy Monday night as much as possible. It’s a big occasion and a big event.”

Officially, there are three broad criteria upon which the Ballon d’Or is awarded: individual performances and impressive character, team performances and class/fairplay.

In recent years, recipients have either won the Champions League and/or World Cup or have made their case through sheer weight of numbers. Kane clearly satisfies the latter criteria.

Long criticised for a failure to win team trophies at Tottenham, Kane brought his total to five with Bayern after last year’s league and cup double, but the Bavarian giants’ dominance of Germany may count against him.

Bayern made the semifinals of the Champions League, going out narrowly to eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain.

England finished third at the World Cup with captain Kane scoring six times and laying on an assist.

‘Ridiculous’ Kane

After scoring against Arsenal, Kane has at least one goal in each of his past 10 Champions League matches, one short of Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 11.

“Whenever you’re in any conversation with Ronaldo it means you’re doing something special, especially in this competition,” Kane said.

Bayern coach Vincent Kompany praised Kane’s team-focused efforts, saying: “What made Harry happy the most in recent years is that he finally won his first team trophies here.

“Now if he can crown his career or his season with the Ballon d’Or, that would be deserved for the way he plays for the team.”

After Wednesday’s match, Rice had special praise for his international captain.

“Harry is the clear winner [of the Ballon d’Or]. His numbers speak for themselves. The year he had is remarkable.

“For a striker to play that pass for their first goal, then take the penalty how he did, … he’s ridiculous. He’s such a good player.”

Former Three Lions midfielder Steven Gerrard on Wednesday joined Jude Bellingham in calling Kane “arguably the best England player there’s been” after Kane’s masterclass against Arsenal.

Michael Owen was England’s last Ballon d’Or recipient, winning it in 2001, while in 1981 another striker, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, was the last Bayern player to claim the honour.

“Monday could be a special night. We’ll have to wait and see,” Kane said on Wednesday.

“I’m trying not to think about it too much because we have important games and another one on Sunday.

“I know it’s a massive event. I am looking forward to it for sure. Hopefully, it’ll be a special night.”

When the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony gets under way at the London Palladium this Monday, much of England will hope it serves as a good omen.

After all, the English haven’t seen one of their own lift the golden ball – football’s most prestigious individual award – in 25 years.

Michael Owen was the embodiment of English pride when he won the accolade in 2001. Now, it is Harry Kane who could bring his nation an honour every footballer dreams of.

So, what are Kane’s odds of winning the Ballon d’Or? Al Jazeera takes a look:

The best season of Kane’s career bodes well for Ballon d’Or

Remember the time when Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scored 50-plus goals for fun? When a football forward’s goal tally looked more like a batsman’s cricket score?

Kane’s 2025-26 goal-scoring exploit is the closest we have experienced to that in recent years.

The England captain’s 73-goal performance last season was the finest display the world has seen since Argentinian legend Messi’s 82-goal tally in 2011-12.

“I’ve never liked to talk about myself too much,” Kane said in an interview last month.

“The only thing I would say is that last season was incredible, on a personal level and as a team.

“It was, by far, the best season of my life.”

Age is no problem for England and Bayern Munich’s Kane

He scored an incredible 36 goals last season, making Kane the Bundesliga’s top scorer for the third year running and earning him a second European Golden Shoe, while finishing nine goals clear of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland in the continental race.

The Bayern Munich forward’s statistics look even more impressive given he is seemingly peaking at 33, an age when most forwards are far beyond their prime.

Kane is bidding to join the ranks of Messi, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, some of the recipients of the last 10 editions who won the Ballon d’Or in their 30s.

Standing in his way, however, are two very talented juniors – Spain’s superstar-in-the-making, Lamine Yamal, who won the 2026 FIFA World Cup shortly after his 19th birthday, and France’s 2018 world champion, Kylian Mbappe, who is 27.

When Kane made his Premier League debut for Tottenham Hotspur in 2014, Yamal was still in primary school, and Mbappe was in high school.

Could Champions League and World Cup woes hurt Kane’s bid?

Since Kane moved from London to Munich, the forward has taken German club football by storm, and 2025-26 was no different. He finished the campaign with three trophies: the Bundesliga title, DFB-Pokal (the German Cup) and Franz Beckenbauer Supercup (the German Supercup).

But his failure to make an impact in the Champions League semifinal cost Bayern Europe’s most coveted club trophy, and the same was the case at the recent World Cup, where he finished third with England.

While World Cup success is not a strict requirement to win the Ballon d’Or, having a world title on your CV definitely helps. Furthermore, being pitted against 2026 World Cup winners Yamal and Rodri – also the 2024 Ballon d’Or recipient – could hurt Kane’s odds.

Recent history suggests that winning a title in one of the major tournaments has become almost a prerequisite.

Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d’Or winners failed to lift either the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America during the year they won the honour.

Those exceptions include record eight-time Ballon d’Or recipient Messi and five-time winner Ronaldo.

Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Ballon d’Or

Only time will tell whether falling short in major competitions’ crucial knockout rounds will decide Kane’s fate, but for now, he is the bookmakers’ leading candidate for the trophy.

As of Tuesday, Kane holds about 65-70 percent market share to become the successor to Ousmane Dembele, the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner.

Unlike other Ballon d’Or contenders, especially the outspoken Yamal and Mbappe, who are campaigning hard for the award, Kane has been relatively quiet.

Bayern are speaking up for their leader, having put together a video in which teammates said Kane should win.

“He deserves to win it, 100 percent, without a doubt,” said Colombian Luis Diaz, who is also on the shortlist.

If Kane wins the award, he would become only the fifth English player to do so after Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen.

For Kane, it was another mesmerising performance that underlined his credentials as the frontrunner for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The former Tottenham Hotspur captain, 33, could become the first Englishman since Michael Owen in 2001 to win the prestigious individual award, with Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal and Paris St-Germain forward and current holder Ousmane Dembele among the favourites.

Kane was named on the 30-man shortlist in September, with the winner due to be announced on Monday following a vote by an international jury of 100 journalists.

“He is the clear winner. His numbers speak for themselves. The year he has had has been remarkable,” Arsenal and England midfielder Declan Rice told TNT Sports.

“When you play with him, you realise how good he is, and when you play against him, you see how much of a pain it is.

“He is ridiculous, such a good player, and I am lucky I can play with him, not so lucky I have to play against him.”

By scoring against Arsenal on Wednesday night, Kane became only the second player in Champions League history to find the net in 10 consecutive matches.

The only other player to achieve the feat was five-time Ballon d’Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored in 11 successive matches for Real Madrid between June 2017 and April 2018.

“Kane certainly looks at home at Bayern. He understands the team and its system, and they all understand him. They know that when he gets the ball at his feet, wherever that may be, something good can happen,” Onuoha added.

“I think all the Bayern players are really playing into that, but then Harry steps up and scores a penalty as well.

“Having freedom is probably the best way to describe what he has got playing for Bayern, because he will work hard defensively, which allows him the freedom to be creative when he is in attack. For now, he certainly is thriving.”

Kane’s goal against Arsenal took his tally to 156 in 158 appearances since joining Bayern Munich from Tottenham in 2023.

It was another night to remember for the England captain, but the best could yet be to come, with the Ballon d’Or ceremony in London looming.

“It would be amazing to win,” said Kane afterwards. “The voting closed a long time ago so there’s nothing I can do, just wait and see what happens.”