Diplomacy

Iran has stepped up diplomatic efforts amid suggestions by United States President Donald Trump that the US could resume full-scale strikes on the Islamic republic.

The US news website Axios quoted a US official saying that US Central Command (CENTCOM) was preparing for the resumption of major military operations in Iran, and that it was just waiting on orders from Washington. On Thursday, Trump told reporters the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran, adding that people will “know soon enough” if he acts.

Tehran’s intensified diplomatic push comes after Iran downed two US reconnaissance drones near Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz, which the US struck earlier this week. Iran says it will retaliate if the US resumes larger strikes.

What diplomatic efforts is Iran engaging in?

On Thursday, Iran offered the US a new nuclear and peace proposal via Qatari mediators, to be discussed only after Washington meets Tehran’s seven demands, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. The US is examining the proposal, Reuters reported.

Iran has made meeting its seven demands a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting peace talks, including on its nuclear programme. The demands include the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and the end to the US naval blockade of its ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz, among other things.

It has also stepped up ties with Russia, with its top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, travelling to Moscow for talks on Thursday. During that visit, Rezaei said: “On the issue of diplomacy, we have announced seven conditions ⁠to the Americans. As long as they do ⁠not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations.”

Meanwhile, the US has insisted a deal on Iran’s nuclear capacity must be part of any ceasefire agreement before wider peace talks can restart.

How is Iran deepening ties with Russia?

On Thursday, Rezaei met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin to deliver a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Iranian state media did not elaborate on ⁠the contents of the message.

Rezaei called it “an extremely important exchange” according to remarks reported by the Iranian embassy, but also did not give further details.

However, The Financial Times reported that Russia previously agreed to supply Iran with 90 helicopter-mounted launchers for precision-guided missiles, despite needing its own weapons for the Ukraine war. The newspaper cited a Russian defence manufacturer’s production schedule for 2024 and 2025, which it has examined, showing an order for helicopter-mounted launchers being assigned a code used to refer to Iran in Russian defence documents.

Relations between Russia and Iran have deepened since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and during the US-Israeli war on Iran that saw the two countries become the most heavily sanctioned in the world. Iran has provided Shahed drones, which Russia has modified and used heavily against Ukraine.

In return, Russia has also reportedly helped Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles, sold it Verba shoulder-launched anti-air missiles and shared information with Tehran potentially relevant to nuclear weapons.

“It is indicative of Russia’s willingness to continue supplying Iran despite its own wartime demands and with far less concern about Western objections than in the past,” Nicole Grajewski, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the FT.

In early October, Putin said Russia was prepared to take part in mediation to bring an end to the war.

Images released by the Kremlin showed its foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov and chief of the Russian military intelligence, Igor Kostyukov, attending a meeting with Iran’s security chief alongside Putin.

The meeting also strengthened Iran’s economic ties with Russia.

“During the meeting with Mr Vladimir Putin, discussions were held regarding the construction of gas pipelines from Russia to Iran,” said Rezaei, Iranian state TV reported.

He said the gas pipelines would address Iran’s gas shortages and facilitate the sale of Russian energy to neighbouring countries.

Tehran said Iran’s natural gas refineries had been hit during the most intense phase of US-Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year, which lasted 40 days.

Separately, Russia’s Foreign Ministry advised citizens against travel to Iran “In light of the remaining risks of a new escalation around Iran”.

How is Iran negotiating with regional leaders?

During the most intense fighting of the war, Iran struck bases in Gulf countries hosting US military assets, as well as civil and energy facilities and infrastructure.

Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any state helping the US to target the Islamic republic will be a “legitimate target” should US attacks resume.

On Thursday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held phone calls with several Gulf leaders, including the foreign minister of the UAE, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

They discussed regional developments as well as diplomatic efforts for stability in the region, according to Araghchi’s Telegram channel.

Araghchi spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud about efforts to improve security and stability in the region, according to the Saudi foreign ministry.

Araghchi also discussed de-escalation efforts with the foreign ministers of Kuwait and Turkiye.

In a separate call, Araghchi talked with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani about coordinating to reduce tensions, the Qatari foreign ministry said.

Sheikh Mohammed stressed support for efforts to secure freedom of maritime navigation.

In a statement, Oman’s foreign ministry said the safety of passage through the Strait of Hormuz was a main topic of discussions, in a call between Araghchi and Oman’s foreign minister.

Iran continues to tightly control shipping lanes through the strait, where several ships have been damaged in recent days. It has granted exemptions to shipping restrictions to Iraq and Qatar, in the Gulf region, as well as to India and China.

What is Trump saying?

Despite his Republican Party suffering a drubbing in this week’s US midterm elections – largely because of public anger over the war on Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices – US President Donald Trump has refused to rule out further strikes on Iran.

On Thursday, Trump told reporters at the Oval Office that he may have to “destroy the rest” of Iran.

Former Iranian diplomat Hadi Afghahi told Al Jazeera that Tehran can ease the path to a settlement if the US also shows flexibility. He argued that Trump “really does not want to go to war, because war again will cost him more”. However, the US president’s next move is unpredictable, observers say.

Afghahi cautioned that Trump “is still surrounded by a group of hawks”, including the energy and treasury secretaries.

Trump has shown willingness to engage in diplomacy, however. Qatar’s ⁠Emir ⁠Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad ⁠Al Thani discussed diplomatic ⁠efforts to ease regional tensions in a ‌phone call with Trump on Friday, according to the Qatari Emiri Diwan.

The leaders reviewed international diplomatic efforts, including the Doha-led mediation efforts to support negotiations in recent weeks, in a bid to reach “a comprehensive agreement that puts an end to the crisis”, the Diwan said in a statement.

How has Iran responded to Trump’s rhetoric?

Tehran warned it will retaliate on a wider scale than it has done so far if the US resumes the war. It has also said talks will become unfeasible.

Iranian officials said Iran has the capacity to strike further than the Gulf using weapons manufactured in Iran.

On Thursday, a spokesman for the Supreme Advisor to the Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: “In the event of a new aggression, any country or force that helps America attack Iran can be a legitimate target of the Islamic Republic.”

Iran’s state media outlet Tasnim News reported: “Our missile bases have a suitable range to target the Zionist regime and American bases,” adding “Iran’s response to the possible new aggression of the enemies will not be geographically limited.”

Iran has also previously warned that cables, data centres and artificial intelligence (AI) facilities across the Gulf region could be attacked if war with the US erupts again.

What strikes have there been in recent days?

In the run-up to the midterm elections, the US said it had conducted “defensive strikes” on Iran’s Qeshm island and Bandar Lengeh in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps navy says at least seven tankers have caught fire after sailing into mines while attempting to transit through the Strait of Hormuz using “unauthorised routes” near Oman this week.

Two oil ‌tankers caught fire and were brought to a stop after hitting ⁠mines on Friday, the IRGC said. They had been trying to cross the waterway “with the support of the aggressor and terrorist American military”, the IRGC added.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz has been a main stumbling block in negotiations to end the Iran war since it began in February.

Tehran has sought to limit traffic through the strategic waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies.

The US has also imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and escorted tankers through the strait.

Maritime organisations have not confirmed the latest incidents.

Amid growing concerns about renewed attacks on Iran following Tuesday’s midterm elections in the United States, US forces have struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in what officials have reportedly described as a defensive measure.

In the first attack since June on Qeshm Island, which serves as the primary platform for Iran’s “asymmetric” naval power, according to analysts, the US strikes come as both sides continue to adopt military and diplomatic postures.

Mediation efforts led by Qatar are continuing in a bid to avert a return to all-out war, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched strikes across Iran, triggering the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, surging oil and gas prices and massive damage to military, civil and energy facilities around the Gulf.

Here’s what we know:

What happened in the attack on Qeshm Island?

Several explosions were heard on Qeshm Island late on Monday, as US media reported that the US military had carried out what officials called “defensive strikes” in the Strait of Hormuz.

The blasts came in rapid succession, according to Iran’s state-owned IRNA news agency. Witnesses told the agency they saw two planes flying over the island, located off Iran’s southern coast along the waterway.

According to The Wall Street Journal, which quoted an unnamed official, the strikes on Monday night appeared limited and were not a resumption of a major operation.

The Associated Press news agency also quoted an unnamed US official as saying Washington had conducted the defensive strikes against “Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets”.

The attack came after IRNA reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had destroyed a US MQ-9 drone east of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US first struck a critical desalination plant on Qeshm Island on March 7 – one week into the war. The strike, which Tehran branded a “flagrant crime” against civilians, cut off freshwater supplies to 30 surrounding villages.

But isn’t diplomacy ongoing?

It is, but it is fragile, and mixed messages are coming from both sides.

Qatari mediators have been engaged in indirect talks with Iranian officials in recent days. They have passed messages between the two sides, but the talks appeared to come to an end on Monday with no news of a breakthrough.

An official briefed on the talks told the Reuters news agency that Iran’s delegation had departed from Doha on Sunday, but that a draft proposal was still being circulated, without elaborating on the content.

Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Monday night for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding a version of a draft US-Iran deal which has been under negotiation for the past eight days, an official told Reuters.

Araghchi told IRNA on Monday: “Consultations through mediators are very intensive. We have presented our conditions and proposals, and everything depends on the political rationality of Washington.”

Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also told a news conference on Monday that the “ball” was in the US’s court as Iran’s demands were “clear and logical”.

He said the plan Iran submitted in September to end the war remained the focus of talks, but that the proposal could be shortened and implemented in “two days”, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to talks about Iran’s nuclear programme.

On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had given the government “certain authorities” over talks with the US, local media reported.

The president added that Tehran would look to resolve the conflict through dialogue.

Khamenei’s apparent approval of diplomacy marks a change since the breakdown of the June memorandum of understanding, which allowed a brief ceasefire and peace negotiations, when the supreme leader said the US could not be trusted.

For the US side, Vice President JD Vance also told reporters on Monday that he was hopeful for a diplomatic solution – just hours before the strikes on Qeshm Island.

“The president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement,” Vance said. “We’ve certainly made some progress. We’ll see if we can make some more.”

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated on Tuesday that Iran’s response to any US “miscalculation”, such as launching strikes, would be unpredictable.

“The enemy seeks to force the Iranian nation into submission through threats and military action, but they are sorely mistaken; Iran will not submit,” he said.

What has Trump said about diplomacy?

Oil prices dropped by more than 7 percent on Monday. In response, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account that people believe the war with Iran will not resume as mediation efforts continue.

“Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!” Trump wrote.

He told media at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, DC, that it looked like efforts were “coming together very nicely”.

“That’s why I guess the oil prices dropped. People found out about it.”

However, Trump also told the US media outlet Axios before his post on Truth Social that he was “in no rush” to decide whether to resume strikes on Iran.

“One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline, and their people are getting very tired of it,” Trump told Axios in an interview.

What happens next?

The US midterm elections are being viewed as the inflexion point for Trump’s decision on what path he takes next.

The president has suggested several times that he could attack Iran following the vote and told the Right Side Broadcasting Network (RSBN) on Sunday that the conflict would end “very soon one way or the other”, adding that Tehran would either “make a deal, or we’ll just end it”.

Observers say the US will likely renew strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if they do resume.

In particular, this could include Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a highly fortified site that contains two tunnel complexes buried deep underground, and which Trump told US outlet Newsmax last month could be a target. He said the US “may have to go there. We’ll take a shot at that one. We’ll knock it out fast.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that diplomatic contacts with Iran have continued despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, stressing that Washington remains open to a peaceful solution provided its core security concerns are addressed, Anadolu reports.

Speaking to reporters in Atlanta, Rubio said there was no set timetable for the ongoing diplomatic efforts, but emphasized that communication channels remained open.

“There are multiple talks. Talks have actually never stopped,” he said, adding that conversations were taking place both directly and, more often, through intermediaries.

“The president’s preference in any challenge around the world is to try to solve it diplomatically and peacefully, if possible,” Rubio said, referring to President Donald Trump’s approach.

He added that Washington would welcome a diplomatic outcome, provided it did not endanger US national security or leave its principal concerns unresolved.

READ: Iran war damage to US bases may cost billions in reconstruction: Report

At the center of those concerns, Rubio said, are Iran’s nuclear program and what Washington sees as Tehran’s destabilizing role across the region.

He accused Iran of targeting commercial shipping in international waters, warning that attacks on vessels carrying oil, natural gas and other cargo threaten not only maritime security but also global energy and food supplies.

Rubio also pointed to Iran’s support for regional groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguing that their activities have contributed to instability and security concerns for neighboring countries.

Addressing Gulf security, he reaffirmed Washington’s defense commitments to Saudi Arabia, saying the US remained in regular contact with Riyadh and intended to honor its agreements.

Tehran, Iran – Ongoing contacts through mediators have provided a potential diplomatic opening between Iran and the United States, even as both sides express readiness for renewed military escalation.

After two days of Qatari-mediated talks, Iranian authorities have signalled that a deal remains possible provided that their demands are tangibly implemented. At the same time, they have doubled down on a willingness to expand attacks or even launch preemptive strikes if they deem war is inevitable.

“We are prepared for all scenarios,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday. “We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms. Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.”

His comments came as US President Donald Trump said on Saturday the talks were going “fine” but added that Iranian authorities were not “reliable”.

The Republican leader, who ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, has repeatedly raised prospects of once more hitting the country’s civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, he has suggested that an attack could potentially take place after the November 3 midterm elections in the US.

“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump told reporters at a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida about further bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Sequencing and timeline

The mediated talks in Tehran on Friday, and then in Qatar on Saturday, appear to have produced a new tangible result by shortening the period after which Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can be enforced.

Tehran had previously offered seven days, but that has now come down to two, Araghchi said in his interview with Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, said there are “indications” of US interest in a negotiated settlement, citing the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and US Vice President JD Vance’s recent outreach.

“However, Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme before concessions are made,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.”

Araghchi’s two-day offer indicates some flexibility over sequencing that could also allow both sides to claim an initial diplomatic achievement without immediately resolving their fundamental disagreements, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“However, the military statements show the limits of this opening. Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” he wrote on social media. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”

As the talks were ongoing on Saturday, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he had a meeting earlier with top military commanders to demand “maximum deterrence” through preparedness for an immediate response “without geographical restriction” to any threat.

Targets would include “tangible and intangible” US and Israeli assets, Khamenei said. Iranian authorities have previously said if Iran’s civilian infrastructure is attacked again, seabed cables and infrastructure across the region could also become targets.

After Khamenei’s statement, commanders of the general staff of the armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the traditional army separately expressed readiness to launch missile, drone and other attacks in case of an escalation of conflict.

State media on Sunday also aired footage of missiles and drones being taken out of massive underground storage sites and deployed during the eight months of war so far.

The authorities also signalled that they expect more potential attacks from the US and Israel, including against Iran’s power grid.

Gholamreza Jalali, commander of the National Organization for Passive Defense, said during a speech on Sunday that they have identified 14 sectors most dependent on electricity that would need support if the war restarts, without naming any.

“Adopting preventive measures in the area of passive defence for the electricity grid is a fundamental principle that all authorities must follow up in their capacities,” he said, adding that officials were considering “network islanding” practices to create different segments that would not all be simultaneously affected by potential bombing.

‘Positive change in tone’

In and around the Strait of Hormuz, vessels continue to be attacked if they refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the entity set up by Iranian authorities to enforce control and sovereignty in the critical waterway.

At least four tankers were identified as being hit on Friday and Saturday, although not all attacks are reported by vessels and monitors. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was struck by three Iranian projectiles on Saturday about 40 nautical miles (74km) south of Iran’s Lavan Island, deep into the Gulf.

Transit in the strait and surrounding waterways will not return to normal unless the US takes steps towards Iran’s conditions, security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television during an interview on Saturday night.

For the sequencing to work, he said Tehran wants the US to lift its naval blockade that has halted oil exports and the majority of Iran’s trade, which used to be facilitated through its southern ports. The US must also issue waivers for oil sanctions, unfreeze Iran’s assets abroad, stop fighting on all regional fronts, including Lebanon, and recognise a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for Hormuz.

Rezaei said he has yet to respond to a letter addressed to him by Vance, although he said the missive indicated a “change in tone” that he described as “positive”.

Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based political analyst said to be linked with Rezaei, said if the conditions are not met, the letter is likely to go unanswered and negotiations – including on Iran’s nuclear programme – will not enter a higher level.

“It is unclear how willing Washington is to accept these demands. It is clear that not recognising rights emphasised by Iran will lead to the failure of the negotiations,” he wrote on X.

The US has also doubled down on the effectiveness of its Operation Economic Outcast involving the blockade, sanctions and pressure on overland trade and aviation.

A report by the US Treasury to inform Trump’s decision-making, which was publicised by news outlet Axios, said no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iran’s terminals since August 25. It also showed overseas crude deliveries were down, while Iran’s year-on-year inflation neared 90 percent in September and the national currency continued to dwindle.

The report said Iran’s economy was “crippled” by the combined measures, but did not argue that it was close to collapsing.

East African neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea are once again perilously close to all-out war.

Territorial disputes have dogged their relations since Eritrea gained independence in 1993.

They fought a bitter war between 1998 and 2000. And despite a truce, they remained in a state of war for nearly 20 years.

The Jeddah accord in 2018 brought peace. But tensions have lingered.

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting rebels in its Tigray region, while Eritrea accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to capture one of its key Red Sea ports.

Can diplomacy end this deep-rooted conflict?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Faisal Roble – Political analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa

Jervin Naidoo – Senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa

Matt Bryden – Strategic adviser at Sahan, a think tank focused on governance, politics and security in the Horn of Africa