dilemma

After Maduro’s January 3 extraction and arrest, and the emergence of an uneasy relationship between the United States and interim president Delcy Rodríguez, the conversation about Venezuela has increasingly focused on the future of the oil industry. The issue was central to Trump’s rhetoric in the weeks leading up to the extraction and has remained so as he pushes for a rapid reactivation of the sector as part of what he sees as a broader democratic transition.

It makes sense. For decades, the oil industry has been the heart of the country’s economy. Any viable route toward a solution to Venezuela’s prolonged socioeconomic crisis passes through the recovery of the national oil industry, a sector uniquely damaged under chavismo. This assumption also underpins María Corina Machado’s message, which holds that following a democratic transition, renewed investment and increased exports would fuel economic recovery and the establishment of Venezuela as the “Energy Hub of the Americas.”

Yet both narratives tend to treat the oil industry as a static entity that responds predictably to simple incentives. Last week’s meeting with oil executives at the White House showed that this reality is not so simple, as major corporations like Exxon Mobil appear far less eager to engage than anticipated without stronger guarantees, as shown in a statement they released over the weekend. So, while there is a lot of talk about recovery in the oil industry, it is not clear who will do it or how long it will take. Moreover, any revitalization effort requires a sizable amount of human capital to staff the thousands of jobs the industry demands. In the case of Venezuela, a significant portion of that talent moved abroad to continue their careers as the oil sector deteriorated.

The prospects of recovery become more challenging without their input or expertise. Therefore, while narratives of reactivation suggest these workers would return and work in Venezuela automatically, it is important to directly consider their perspectives. Before Maduro’s extraction and arrest, I spoke with four Venezuelan oil workers overseas to understand what “reactivating” means and whether they would be open to returning to work in Venezuela. All four oil workers spoke on condition of anonymity and are identified by pseudonyms due to professional and personal concerns.

“Political stability is important, and you do see flashes that things might improve and that changes are coming, but real stability never fully materializes.”

Their initial reactions echoed some of the themes of last week’s White House meeting. There are things that need to change in Venezuela’s oil industry to begin imagining a process of reactivation, particularly the importance of a clear legal framework for investors. For Javier, an oil services engineer currently based in South America, this is particularly relevant: “I think a lot will depend on how things are set up, on what the rules of the game look like. For companies to return, and with them the workforce, those rules will matter a great deal.”

Juan, who is based in Saudi Arabia, also emphasized the importance of political stability: “Political stability is important, and you do see flashes that things might improve and that changes are coming, but real stability never fully materializes. That’s one of the main differences in this part of the world. Even when the economy collapses or there are global problems, there is still a great deal of stability.”

They also expressed concerns about how PDVSA, the state-owned oil and gas company, operates, arguing that this would pose a hurdle for potential investment. Carlos, who is based in Houston and currently works in technical support and engineering roles for international operations, emphasized that PDVSA’s relationship with the government should be re-evaluated: “There has to be a total restructuring of what PDVSA is. It should be entirely focused on operations. It shouldn’t worry about the political part.” 

During the years of both Chávez and Maduro, the company became heavily politicized and deeply involved in electoral campaigns, as well as functioning as a logistical arm of the government’s social programs. Beyond enabling corruption and mismanagement, this expansion stretched the company too thin and left it with long-standing debts to oil services companies. Javier noted that those debts would make such companies wary of investing in Venezuela.

There is also a significant concern about the technical capabilities of the industry after years of decay. Juan, for instance, said that with the low levels of maintenance, “it is almost impossible to reactivate it to the level it was before. It will need too much foreign investment to return to the same level.” 

Miguel, a Venezuelan oil industry engineer working in regional engineering management, said there is still much that is unknown and that there is a profound need for technical assessments at every level. “We have to ask, what are all the barriers that prevent us from a higher barrel output?” He added that this would necessarily lead to a process of infrastructure modernization. “When I talk about modernizing infrastructure, I mean evaluating everything, equipment, pipelines, refineries, storage, to see what works, what doesn’t, what needs to be repaired, and what needs to be installed. It’s about asking whether the equipment is still adequate or whether more efficient options exist.” Miguel also emphasized that this process will require the reestablishment of supply chains, from chemicals to spare parts, so that all the different industries linked to the oil business are solidified again.

All of these processes take time and rely on highly uncertain timelines. When considering a potential return to work in Venezuela, nostalgia is quickly confronted by family responsibilities. For instance, Carlos stated: “With all the love and nostalgia in the world, yes, I would like to. But when you have a family, you also have to guarantee their safety.”

The Venezuelan diaspora is not a monolith, but rather a dynamic group. The lessons they learned back home are now being deployed at a global scale and they see recovery as a long process, with the needs of their families as a pressing concern. 

It goes beyond safety. There must also be conditions for families to flourish: “To consider returning, there would also need to be economic, personal, and family conditions in place, good schools, a functioning healthcare system,” Juan added. 

This was a particular concern as well when I talked with my father about it. He has been working in the industry for 30 years and throughout a wide variety of countries. He emphasized that while the idea of returning sounds nice on paper, the living conditions are essential: “We’ve had to move many times, and the underlying theme through all of them has been the fact that the conditions back home were not appropriate. It wouldn’t make sense to rush back”. He also added that while it is true that it is possible to live well in Venezuela, there’s systemic issues that need to be addressed: “You know it is very possible to live well in Venezuela, but there are broader things to think about like inflation or the fact that the healthcare system is not as solid”.  

I wish the story was different and that this highly-skilled workforce would return to quickly rebuild the industry. Yet, in times as complicated as these ones, it’s vital to remember that the Venezuelan diaspora is not a monolith, but rather a dynamic group. The lessons they learned in Venezuela are now being deployed at a global scale and they see recovery as a long process, with the needs of their families as a pressing concern. For instance, Carlos added: “How do I give my children what they need to become, I don’t know, citizens or have the opportunities they currently have within the United States or the different countries where I have lived?” In addition, returning to Venezuela represents, in some cases, starting without the social roots they had growing up. This is the case for Miguel: “My immediate family and my friends are no longer there. Going back to Venezuela would mean returning to a place where my parents are no longer living, my siblings are outside the country, and my wife and her family are also abroad. That Venezuela I might miss, the one I remember from when I was younger, no longer exists.”

Still, despite these calculations, the possibility of return is never fully closed. As Miguel stated: “Obviously, if I’m needed in Venezuela, I’m willing to help rebuild it, but several things would have to align. That’s why my answer today is that we’re still evaluating. Still evaluating. I don’t know.”