Denying

The U.K. is blocking U.S. use of two key bases for an attack on Iran, according to a report by The Times. Both Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean, and RAF Fairford, a base in the U.K., would be important to any American plans to use long-range bombers in a sustained campaign against Iran.

The move reportedly stems from British legal concerns about an Iran attack as well as a dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the ultimate disposition of Diego Garcia. We will discuss that more later in this story.

We have yet to see any bombers moving to Diego Garcia and, to a lesser degree, Fairford, which would be likely to happen in advance of a sustained aerial bombardment campaign. The decision by the U.K., if the report is accurate, could be a primary reason why these movements haven’t occurred.

As we have frequently reported, Diego Garcia has long been a highly strategic operating location for the U.S. military. Beyond its large airfield that sits in the center of the Indian Ocean, it plays many roles for the Department of Defense, including hosting Space Force operations, serving as a key port for U.S. Navy vessels, including nuclear submarines, and its lagoon provides shelter for a Sealift Command Prepositioning Ship Squadron. 

The island outpost drew particular attention last year after an unusually large force of six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers began arriving in March in a clear show of force aimed primarily at Iran. This is precisely the type of deployment we would have expected to have occurred during the present crisis, but it has not. The B-2s subsequently conducted strikes on Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen and were ultimately replaced by B-52 bombers.

RAF Fairford is the home of the only U.S. bomber forward operating location in the U.K., where American strategic aircraft are frequently forward deployed for Bomber Task Force missions. Major bomber operations have been staged out of the base in the past, including major strikes against Iraq.

Last June, when the U.S. launched the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the B-2 bombers flew roundtrip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. However, that was a one-night operation. Trump is now considering what is likely to be a week’s long campaign against Iranian leadership, nuclear infrastructure, missile launch sites and associated industry, and other military installations and command and control nodes. 

It would be extremely helpful for the U.S. to use Diego Garcia, and possibly RAF Fairford, to stage, rearm and maintain the B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers that could be used to strike Iran.

It is about 2,300 miles from Diego Garcia to the eastern border of Iran and about 2,500 miles from RAF Fairford to the western border. By contrast, Whiteman AFB, one of many bases in the U.S. housing strategic aircraft, is located about 6,500 miles from Iran’s western border. Having access to the two U.K. bases would allow the U.S. Air Force to increase the generation of bomber sorties, especially important in the opening of a campaign. It would also help reduce wear and tear on the aircraft and crews.

Though the U.S. has not deployed any bombers to Diego Garcia, we have been reporting that America is transiting scores of fighters, electronic warfare jets, radar planes, aerial refueling tankers and other aviation assets from RAF Mildenhall and RAF Lakenheath to that region. It is unclear if that will change if the fighting starts. Traditionally, these types of limitations are focused on actual combat sorties, not aircraft transiting through in order to get to another destination.

That being said, the U.S. does have other basing options, even for its sensitive B-2 Spirit bomber force. The Air Force has put a high priority on training to operate even these notoriously finicky jets out of unfamiliar and somewhat austere locations. Deployments to the Azores, Iceland and Wake Island, among others, are evidence of this. The B-52s and B-1s are even more flexible and have operated out of multiple allies’ airfields in recent years. But operating from a forward locale in a limited fashion is different than flying from an installation that is pre-equipped with all the amenities needed to keep sortie rates up during a conflict. Regardless, any other country would have to approve the use of bombers based on its soil to attack Iran.

A similar situation involving permission for the use of Diego Garcia took place shortly before Midnight Hammer. The U.K. government said it would have to sign off on the U.S. use of its Diego Garcia base in any bombing raid on Iran, The Guardian reported at the time. Britain was informed of the U.S. military strikes on Iran ahead of time, but did not receive any U.S. request for use of Diego Garcia for that mission, according to Reuters.

The impetus behind this latest move, according to The Times, is a dispute over control of Diego Garcia, which is part of the Chagos Islands. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pushing for a deal to seek a 99-year lease of the island from Mauritius, which claims rights to this chain. Trump, who has previously backed the plan, on Wednesday blasted it, widening a growing rift between the two allies over the issue.

“I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that is ‘claiming’ Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located in the Indian Ocean,” Trump proclaimed Wednesday on his Truth Social site. “Our relationship with the United Kingdom is a strong and powerful one, and it has been for many years, but Prime Minister Starmer is losing control of this important Island by claims of entities never known of before. In our opinion, they are fictitious in nature.”

In his Truth Social post, Trump pointed to the strategic importance of both Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in any campaign against Iran.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries,” the U.S. president posited. “Prime Minister Starmer should not lose control, for any reason, of Diego Garcia, by entering a tenuous, at best, 100 Year Lease. This land should not be taken away from the U.K. and, if it is allowed to be, it will be a blight on our Great Ally. We will always be ready, willing, and able to fight for the U.K., but they have to remain strong in the face of Wokeism, and other problems put before them. DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”

In its story on Thursday, The Times claimed that Trump pulled his support for Starmer’s lease deal after the U.K. refused to allow its bases to be used to strike Iran.

“The White House is drawing up detailed military plans for a strike against Iran involving the use of both Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, which is home to America’s fleet of heavy bombers in Europe,” The Times stated. “Under the terms of long-standing agreements with Washington, these bases can only be used for military operations that have been agreed in advance with the government.”

The Times “understands that the UK is yet to give permission for the US to use the bases in the event that Trump orders a strike on Iran, owing to concerns that it would be a breach of international law which makes no distinction between a state carrying out the attack and those in support if the latter have ‘knowledge of the circumstances of the internationally wrongful act,’” the publication proffered. “The president spoke to the prime minister on Tuesday night, and the two men discussed Trump’s ultimatum to Iran over its nuclear program. The following day, Trump made his statement attacking the Chagos deal.”

The U.K. MoD Defense Ministry (MoD) declined to talk about operational details, but did declare its support for Trump’s push to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of Iran.

“There is a political process ongoing between the US and Iran, which the UK supports,” the U.K. MoD told us in a statement. “Iran must never be able to develop a nuclear weapon, and our priority is security in the region.”

A White House official told us that “President Trump’s first instinct is always diplomacy, and he has been clear that the Iranian regime should make a deal. Of course, the President ultimately has all options at his disposal, and he demonstrated with Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve that he means what he says.”

We have reached out to the White House, the Pentagon, U.S. Central Command, U.S. IndoPacific Command and the U.K. Ministry of Defense for more details.

Despite the controversy over Diego Garcia, the U.S. buildup of forces continues unabated. For instance, just this morning, another flight of F-22 Raptor stealth fighters left Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, most likely bound for Mildenhall or Lakenheath. You can read more about the massive influx of forces to the Middle East in our story here.

Whether the U.K. will end up fully enforcing restrictions against the U.S. use of its bases in a kinetic operation against Iran, only time will tell. In the meantime, how this is impacting U.S. war planning isn’t clear, but if it sticks, it will certainly alter those plans and reduce the magnitude of U.S. bombers’ role in a conflict.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com