delivers

Fed Delivers an October Surprise on Strategy, Not Politics

The FOMC will reduce interest rate-setting meetings starting in 2027 to allow more time for policy discussions.

The Federal Reserve steered clear of a political October surprise but delivered an unexpected shift in monetary policy strategy.

After announcing that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, decided, as expected, to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%, Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the body would introduce a monetary policy strategy meeting that would not vote on the federal funds rate or issue a policy statement, replacing one of its eight policy-setting meetings beginning in the autumn of 2027. It expects to replace a second policy-setting meeting with another strategy meeting in 2028.

The move aims to get monetary policy right, said Warsh. “It involves assessing near-term development at timely, regular, and information-rich intervals. But it is equally important that we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking over longer-term horizons, and focusing on the left side of the decimal point.”

The move would reduce the cadence of the FOMC’s policy meetings, “but does not rule out possible inter-meeting policy moves because of potential exigent circumstances,” said Kenneth Kim, a senior economist at KPMG. “Chair Warsh mentioned that this had occurred during the Global Financial Crisis.”

Warsh also announced that the five task forces he commissioned during the first month of his tenure on Fed communications, the Fed’s balance sheet, the use of existing data sources, inflation frameworks, and productivity will deliver their findings by year-end.

On November 16, the Productivity and Jobs task force plans to hold a field hearing to examine productivity’s implications for jobs in the near, medium, and long term.

“I, for one, am keenly interested in refining my own views on that question, but the task force decided that they wanted to hear from more people as part of their undertaking,” said Warsh.

Keeping Politics at Bay

Warsh also knocked down any suggestion that politics affected the FOMC’s decision to maintain the federal funds rate six days before the U.S. congressional mid-term elections.

“I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs, and didn’t hear an utterance about politics,” he said. “I didn’t hear a reference to politics, elections, or what’s happening in the next week or so.”

When asked whether he or the Federal Reserve Board would be involved in the White House’s Nov. 5 closed-door hearing on allegations of mortgage fraud involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, Warsh replied, “Not to my knowledge.”

Future Hikes

Although the FOMC unanimously supported September’s 0.25% hike in the federal funds rate, October’s decision to maintain the rate showed slight division. Fed Gov. Lisa Cook and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President and CEO Beth Hammock each voted for a 0.25% increase.

That division moves the FOMC closer to raising rates at its December meetings, said Kim. “If you look at market probabilities for December, they’re currently at an 84% chance of a rate hike. I think those dissents are in line with what the market is factoring in will happen at the next FOMC meeting.”

Rob Daly covers the economy and fintech. He can be reached at rdaly@gfmag.com

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Bake Off legend Mary Berry delivers her verdict on new judge Nigella Lawson

Mary Berry has had her say on Nigella Lawson, who has taken over Prue Leith’s role as judge on The Great British Bake Off. Mary originally held the role alongside Paul Hollywood

TV cook and former Great British Bake Off judge Mary Berry has backed Nigella Lawson – saying she is a “glamorous” addition to the show who has brought “new life” to the format.

Mary, 91, had clearly been watching the current run of Bake Off and was full of praise for Nigella on the new series, whilst also urging her to take fellow judge Paul Hollywood to task.

Dame Mary said: “Bake Off is a wonderful format. We started it off not knowing what we were doing and then Prue has been doing it and it is a format and you fit into it.

‘I am delighted Nigella is there. She has got to keep control of a certain person. Paul needs handling and he has this handshake which keeps appearing.

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“Nigella has brought some glamour to it, and she really likes tasting doesn’t she? And I know how she feels, I always took a proper mouthful because if you just take a little bit, the person whose food you are tasting, their auntie will say ‘well she didn’t even taste it’. So I was aware of that.

“Nigella is a joy and I think she has brought new life and I think it will do really well. A touch of glamour.”

Speaking on stage at Cheltenham with comedian and former host of Bake Off Mel Giedroyc, the pair recalled how Mary would sometimes arrive for day two of filming in the tent with the same hair and make up, having slept without taking it off to minimise the amount of time she needed to be styled.

Laughing, Dame Mary said: “Why not? I used to put a towel over the pillow, I didn’t want them to think I was grotty. It does take such a long time for someone to do your make up.”

She also said she found the tent cold and would hide hot water bottles under her jackets.

Dame Mary was appearing at Cheltenham to promote her first gardening book, My Gardening Life and a new cook book All In One.

Arguably she was a gardener before she could cook, as she recalled how her father grew practical crops such as potatoes, sweet peas and celery during wartime to feed the family.

“My dad had to take to gardening because he had to dig for Britain and he gave me a little patch and I grew radishes,” she recalled.

Nowadays she has six raised beds in her garden raised to above knee height so she can easily reach them and even perch on the edge if she wants to take a rest.

She said one of her greatest pleasures now in life was ‘deadheading’ in the garden, the process by which you removed faded or spent flowers to tidy up plants.

She explained: “Deadheading is one of my favourite things, you don’t have to dress up for it. I can do it when I get in tonight if its not dark. I can deadhead the roses which are still flowering and it so encourages more things to come on.”

She added: “Gardening is similar to cooking, you follow a formula. But cooking you can follow a recipe and produce it by tonight. Gardening you have got to be much more patient.

“Which do I prefer, gardening or cooking? I think the two go together. We grow vegetables that we eat, things that I like, so there is no kale, lots of herbs and I think they go together.

“I am a fair weather gardener, I would walk a dog in any weather but I don’t garden in any weather. I wait until the sun comes out.”

Dame Mary is of course better known for her baking and cooking. Having studied in France and the UK, she worked for a number of food industry bodies and wrote recipe pages of Housewife magazine.

Her first cookbook, The Hamlyn All Colour Cookbook, was published in 1970 and since then she has gone on to write more than 50 others, which have sold millions of copies around the world.

Already a big name in food, Dame Mary became a household name to a new generation of cake lovers when she landed the role as a judge on The Great British Bake Off, alongside Paul Hollywood, Mel Giedroyc and Sue Perkins in 2010.

She quit the show in 2016, along with the hosts Mel and Sue, when it moved to Channel 4, staying loyal to the BBC and continuing to make shows there.

* My Gardening Life by Mary Berry is out now, published by DK.

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