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South Asia and the Possibilities of a Regional War

The military confrontation India and Pakistan has ended. At least for now, there is no noticeable escalation, exchanges of fire, or use of artillery on the line of contact. The day before, President Donald Trump announced that India and Pakistan, with the mediation of the United States, had agreed to an immediate and complete ceasefire. “After a long night of negotiations, mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a complete and immediate ceasefire,” Donald Trump said. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had recently called both Pakistani and Indian officials, offering to mediate the talks. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the British Foreign Secretary played a key role in reaching the ceasefire agreement. Secretary Rubio thanked the two prime ministers, Narendra Modi and Shahbaz Sharif, for their “statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.” According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, Pakistan’s chief of military operations called his Indian counterpart, and both sides agreed to cease air, land, and sea strikes.

However, it appears that the parties did not plan for a large-scale armed conflict. Donald Trump’s statements look more like an attempt to portray himself as a peacemaker. And Pakistan’s statements about the role of the British show London’s obvious support for Islamabad. Both India and Pakistan are huge countries. However, the balance of power in the region has been established and will be entrenched for many years to come. And within this balance, India is the largest, richest, and most powerful regional hegemon in South Asia. India is six times larger, its population is approaching 1.5 billion people (first place in the world), while Pakistan’s population is about 250 million (fifth place). India is significantly richer: by GDP – about ten times (over 17 trillion dollars, or 8.5% of world GDP versus 1.67 trillion, or 0.8% of world GDP for Pakistan); by GDP per capita – almost twice (12 thousand dollars versus 7 thousand for Pakistan).

India is among the top five world leaders in military spending, with more than 86 billion dollars in 2024, while for Pakistan, this figure is about 10 billion dollars. Moreover, India is only increasing its military spending, while for Pakistan, it fell by 5% in 2024. India and Pakistan have fought three times: in 1947-1948, 1965, and 1971. All these conflicts ended in victories for Delhi. India tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, an operation called “Smiling Buddha”. Pakistan received nuclear weapons in 1998. India, under Narendra Modi rule, given its increased potential, strives to play a global role and claims the role of a great power. Pakistan is a power on a completely different scale.

However, nuclear weapons have not stopped the conflict between the two neighboring countries. But it is precisely they that have so far prevented a major war from breaking out in the region. Thus, it is possible to predict with a high degree of probability the results of any large-scale conflict between the two countries. At the same time, if the presence of nuclear weapons and different levels of economic development and military potential reduce the possibility of a large-scale conflict, tension on the border is quite possible and even inevitable.

One of the signs of the likelihood of a protracted confrontation is the extremely militant mood in the societies of both countries. “Justice strikes,” declared an editorial in one of India’s leading English-language newspapers, praising the “sharp” and “resolute” response to the killing of 26 Hindus. On May 10, the conflict between the two nuclear powers reached a new level when the Pakistani government announced a major military operation against India. Explosions were heard in northern India on the evening of May 9. India then launched missile strikes on three Pakistani air bases near Rawalpindi – Nur Khan, Murid and Shorkot. As the conflict escalated along the Line of Contact in Jammu and Kashmir and on the Indo-Pakistan international border, Pakistan’s armed forces made heavy use of some 300-400 drones, manufactured and supplied by Turkey. Of the nearly 400 drones sent by Pakistan, “Indian armed forces shot down a few of these drones through kinetic and non-kinetic means,” the government said. Initial evidence from the drone debris indicates that they were from Turkey’s Asisguard Songar. Turkey did not@ condemn the terror attack on civilians in Jammu and Kashmir or offer condolences to the families of Hindu tourists killed by the terrorists, and has fully supported Pakistan.

The growing alliance between Turkey and Pakistan could become a major factor in the regional balance. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed gratitude to Turkey for its “unwavering support” for Kashmir. Immediately after the Pahalgam attack, Turkey reportedly sent a huge amount of military equipment to Pakistan to help Islamabad stockpile against any Indian action. Six Turkish warplanes were reported to have arrived in Pakistan, allegedly carrying Turkish-made weapons and military equipment – ​​reports that were denied by Ankara. Turkey could not deny the presence of its C-130 warplane, as it was detected by global air surveillance systems, but denied that any weapons had been sent.

On May 7, India launched a military operation called Operation Sindoor against, as Delhi said, “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan in response to the attack. Pakistan responded by striking targets in India and claims to have shot down several Indian fighter jets. On April 22, Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists killed 26 Hindu tourists in the town of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir. India called its military operation Operation Sindoor, a word referring to the red powder that married Hindu women traditionally apply to their faces. The name refers to the women who were left widowed after the Pahalgam attack.

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Kim Jong Un oversees combat training drills, stresses ‘full preparations for war’

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw tactical drill demonstrations and called for “full preparations for war,” state-run media reported Wednesday. Photo by KCNA/EPA-EFE

SEOUL, May 14 (UPI) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised combined tactical drills of special operations forces and stressed “full preparations for war,” state media reported Wednesday.

Kim watched tactical drill demonstrations and a joint fire strike demonstration by tank units at an undisclosed location on Tuesday, Korean Central News Agency reported.

“Making full preparations for war is the most crucial task,” Kim said, according to KCNA.

The North’s combat training has evolved “in keeping with the developing patterns and changing trend of modern warfare, strengthening the integral system of organizing, judging and reviewing training, and putting main stress on the actual war drills,” he said.

North Korean troops have gained real-world combat experience on the battlefield in Russia, where they have been sent to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine.

Pyongyang has deployed around 15,000 troops to Russia, Seoul’s spy agency said recently. Some 600 of the soldiers have been killed and another 4,100 injured, the National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in a briefing on April 30.

North Korea acknowledged sending the troops for the first time last month, claiming they helped recapture lost territory in Kursk Province from Ukrainian forces.

“Our involvement in the war was justifiable,” Kim said during a visit to the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang on Friday in honor of Moscow’s Victory Day holiday.

“If [Ukraine] had not committed a heinous crime of encroaching upon the Russian territory, the invaders could have avoided the fate of becoming dead souls, hit by our swords and spears,” he said, according to a KCNA report.

In addition to troops, Seoul and Washington accuse North Korea of supplying artillery and missiles to Russia. A launch of short-range ballistic missiles and long-range artillery last week may have been a test of weapons systems meant for export to Russia, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

In exchange, North Korea is believed to be receiving much-needed financial support and advanced military technology for its own weapons programs.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon warned that North Korea may have up to 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads by 2035.

“North Korea has successfully tested ballistic missiles with sufficient range to reach the entire Homeland,” the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report on current and future missile threats to the United States.

The agency defined an ICBM as “a ground-based missile with a range exceeding 5,500 km (3,417 miles) that flies on a ballistic trajectory and is typically armed with a nuclear warhead or warheads.”

Pyongyang is projected to increase its arsenal to 50 ICBMs from its current inventory of 10 or fewer, the DIA report said. China, Russia and Iran were also included in the threat assessment.

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U.S. imposes another round of Iran-related sanctions amid nuclear deal negotiations

The United States on Tuesday announced another round of sanctions targeting Iran as it tries to negotiate a new nuclear weapons deal with the Middle Eastern country. File Photo by Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA-EFE

May 14 (UPI) — The United States has imposed additional Iran-related sanctions, as the Trump administration negotiates with Tehran on a new nuclear weapons deal.

The sanctions announced Tuesday by the U.S. Treasury target an Iranian oil smuggling network the Trump administration accuses of generating billions of dollars for the Tehran regime’s military and proxy forces.

Fifteen front companies, buyers and facilitators in Hong Kong, mainland China, the Seychelles and Singapore were hit by the punitive measures, along with 52-year-old Iranian national Mohammad Khorasani Niasari and two shipping vessels.

The secondary sanctions were levied due to their links to Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, which the previous Biden administration blacklisted in November 2023 for overseeing the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff’s network of front companies that it uses to sell commodities, including oil, internationally — funds that are used to further Iran’s weapons and nuclear programs and other destabilizing activities.

According to Treasury officials Sepehr Energy obfuscates the origin of these oil shipments through a series of deals involving between multiple front companies it owns. Some of the entities that were blacklisted Tuesday were established in China and Hong Kong.

Among the tactics deployed to conceal the oil’s Iranian origin is the use of ship-to-ship transfers at sea before the cargo reaches China. Once in the country, Sepehr Energy relies on complicit local agencies willing to aid their sanctioned sales.

Khorasani is a financial inspector for Sepehr Energy and its affiliates and was sanctioned Tuesday for helping to manage the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff’s transactions.

“As long as Iran devotes its illicit revenues to funding attacks on the United States and our allies, supporting terrorism around the world and pursuing other destabilizing actions, we will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement.

The sanctions are the latest the Trump administration has imposed since early February when President Donald Trump resumed his so-called maximum pressure policy from his first term — an effort that failed to coerce Iran into returning to the negotiating table for a new nuclear weapons deal.

During his first term in office, Trump imposed sanctions against Iran and unilaterally withdrew the United States from a landmark Obama-era multinational nuclear accord aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Trump applied his maximum pressure campaign of sanctions and political pressure to force Tehran to negotiate a new deal he believed would be better. Instead, the Middle Eastern country ignored its obligations under the accord and escalated its nuclear weapons program to the point where the U.S. government estimates Iran could need as little as a week to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear bomb.

However, talks about a new nuclear deal between the two countries have resumed during the Trump’s second term, with State Department deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott telling reporters in at a Washington press conference on Tuesday that the negotiations “continue to show progress.”

There have been four rounds of informal talks with the fifth round yet to be scheduled.

Trump, speaking in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, called on Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and accept “a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future” or expect consequences. The United States under administration of both Democrats and Republicans have said they will not permit Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

“I want to make a deal with Iran,” Trump said. “This is an offer that will not last forever. The time is right now to choose. We don’t have a lot of time to wait.”

The Trump administration is demanding that Iran discontinue its uranium enrichment program and dismantle its facilities. Iran has said it will not compromise on its enrichment capabilities.

On Monday, after the United States blacklisted three Iranians and a related technology firm involved in nuclear weapons research, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht-Ravanchi suggested there was a possibility of negotiating on its enrichment allotments.

For a limited period of time, we can accept a series of restrictions on the level and volume of enrichment,” he said, state-run Press TV reported.

“We have not yet gone into details about the level and volume of enrichment.”

According to the Treasury, since Trump announced the resumption of his maximum pressure campaign, the United States has sanctioned 253 individuals, entities and vessels related to Iran and its proxies.

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South Asia at a Crossroads: Preventing War Between Nuclear-Armed Neighbors

At midnight on 6th April 2025, Indian forces launched attacks on multiple locations in Pakistan, including Shakargarh, Sialkot, Muridke, Bahawalpur, Kotli, and the Muzaffarabad area of Punjab and the Pakistani part of Kashmir, using standoff precision-guided munitions. The attacks occurred in the Muslims’ religious places, hydropower infrastructure, and commercial air routes, violating international law and human norms alike, and so far 26 civilian deaths have been reported. India has also challenged Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and violated the international border in the darkness of night. India and Pakistan are the archrival two nuclear weapons states of the South Asia region. However, India’s attack indicates the aggressive posture of Indian Prime Minister Modi’s regime to target the unarmed civilian and innocent children. This is not merely a border skirmish; it is a calculated escalation with far-reaching strategic consequences for the entire South Asian region. Various media reports highlighted that in retaliation and for the defense of the state, Pakistani armed forces also hit all of the Indian fighter jets and drones from their own territory with PL-15.

The tension between India and Pakistan escalated when, on April 22, 2025, terror shattered the peace of Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, a scenic hill station in Indian-administered Kashmir (IOJK) known as “Mini Switzerland.” Armed gunmen opened fire on civilians, resulting in 26 casualties. Instead of allowing a transparent investigation to determine the perpetrators, India hastily blamed Pakistan, offering no concrete evidence to back its claim. It was India’s security failure; before putting the finger on Pakistan, India needs to have a neutral investigation of the incident and should provide evidence of linkages of the Pakistani state to these attacks. However, India’s recent attack on Pakistan’s territory and targeting civilian population indicates that the Pahalgam attack was an orchestrated provocation. India, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, launched this attack not in defense but for political theater—under the cover of night, on civilian infrastructure, without evidence or provocation. This isn’t an act of strength—it’s a display of desperation. And if this escalates, it won’t just make headlines; it will be etched in history as the moment ego led us to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.

Pakistan has concluded the meeting of the National Security Committee under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and it has been decided that in consonance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Pakistan reserves the right to respond, in self-defense, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty. The Armed Forces of Pakistan have duly been authorized to undertake corresponding actions in this regard. India’s missile strikes inside Pakistan were reckless, unprovoked, and a clear violation of international law. India’s recent attacks have put the peace and stability of the entire South Asian region in serious jeopardy. At the moment the strikes occurred, 57 international commercial flights, including those operated by major Gulf and European airlines, were either within or approaching Pakistani airspace. This reckless action posed a direct danger to civilian air traffic, placing thousands of innocent lives at risk. It goes beyond a hostile move against Pakistan; it represents a clear threat to global peace and security. By heightening tensions in a nuclear-armed region, India has shown a disturbing disregard for international laws, aviation safety, and the value of human life.

By targeting civilian airspace and deliberately provoking conflict, India has revealed itself as a reckless and irresponsible actor on the global stage. Its actions undermine regional stability and pose a serious threat to international peace. The international community must look beyond India’s carefully crafted narratives and recognize the true source of aggression. This is a defining moment for global powers to uphold justice, demand accountability, and prevent further escalation. Without decisive diplomatic intervention, India’s adventurism could plunge South Asia and potentially the wider world into a dangerous and prolonged conflict. Several nations have already voiced serious concerns; Azerbaijan condemned the military strikes on Pakistan and urged restraint and dialogue; Turkey, through Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, expressed strong solidarity with Pakistan against India’s unprovoked aggression; and China described India’s military action as “regrettable,” calling for de-escalation and expressing concern over the unfolding situation.

To prevent the escalation between the two nuclear states, India and Pakistan, the international community must play a role to bring them to the negotiation table. Both states need an immediate ceasefire to avoid civilian deaths and triggering nuclear risks; they must also halt the cross-border military activities and refrain from provocative statements. There is also an immediate need to establish a neutral and impartial investigation mechanism under the supervision of the United Nations to determine the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack. There must be restoration of military-to-military and diplomatic communication channels for conflict management. Moreover, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the UN Secretary-General must actively intervene by appointing a special envoy to mediate between the two sides. Key international actors such as China, Turkey, the United States, the EU, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) should support de-escalation through diplomatic engagement and pressure for dialogue. Track two diplomacy is vital in the time of crisis and addresses the root cause of the internationally recognized disputed territory of Kashmir in accordance with the UNSC resolutions and wishes of Kashmiri people by granting them the right of self-determination.

Last but not least, both states need to realize that war is not the only solution, but it is a diplomatic failure to de-escalate the tension in the South Asian region. In a nuclearized region of South Asia, its consequences would be catastrophic not only for India and Pakistan but also for regional and global security. The world cannot afford another conflict zone. The international community must rise to the occasion, play an impartial mediating role, and help both nations choose peace over provocation and dialogue over destruction.

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Iran, United States complete ‘difficult but useful’ nuclear talks

Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff at a gaggle with National Security Advisor Michael Waltz at the Stakeout Location in front of the White House in Washington, DC, in February. File photo by Annabelle Gordon/UPI | License Photo

May 11 (UPI) — A fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Oman have produced encouraging results for the Trump administration, a senior official told reporters Sunday.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Iranian foreign ministries Accas Araghchi for three hours Sunday in Muscat. The talks were mediated by Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi.

“The discussions were again both direct and indirect,” Axios reported the official said.

The news comes just days before President Donald Trump‘s scheduled trip to the Middle East this week.

The two sides are reportedly working through the technical elements of a potential nuclear pact.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the talks as “difficult but useful.” Both sides were guarded in their comments.

“We are encouraged by today’s outcome and look forward to our next meeting, which will happen in the near future,” the United States official said.

El-Busaidi said on X that the two sides discussed “useful and original ideas reflecting a shared wish to reach an honorable agreement.”

There is some question over how enforceable the current deal being discussed would be as Araghachi said before the meeting that civilian enrichment of uranium would not be subject to the new rules.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on Iran to import enriched uranium instead, but Iranian officials pushed back and said the country’s investment in creating it runs deep.

“Enrichment is one of the achievements and honors of the Iranian nation,” Araghchi has said. “We have paid a heavy price for enrichment. The blood of out nuclear scientists has been spilled for this achievement.”

He was referring to Iranian scientists who have been killed during the course of the country’s enrichment program.

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Reports: Qatar to gift luxury plane to Trump for use as Air Force One

May 11 (UPI) — The Qatari Royal Family has planned to gift a super luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet to President Donald Trump to be used for Air Force One and for his own private use when his presidency ends, reports said Sunday.

News of the major gift was first reported by ABC News, citing anonymous sources, and later confirmed by The New York Times and NBC News. United Press International has reached out to Qatar’s Government Communications Office for confirmation.

The gift is expected to be formally announced when Trump visits Qatar next week, according to the reports. Trump toured the plane when it was parked at the West Palm Beach International Airport in February.

A Qatari representative, however, told Axios that while reports of Trump being gifted a jet were “inaccurate,” Qatar’s Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense are discussing the possible temporary use of an aircraft as Air Force One.

If it is gifted, the jet could become the most valuable gift ever from a foreign government to the United States, ABC News reported. Its $400 million estimated price tag surpasses the estimated $250,000 cost of constructing the Statue of Liberty — which was gifted to the United States from France.

But the expected acceptance of the gift by Trump raises questions of its legality, raising the possibility that the president could face scrutiny for bribery or violating the emoluments clause of the U.S. Constitution.

The Emoluments Clause prohibits federal officials from accepting gifts, payments or other benefits from foreign governments without the consent of Congress but there is debate as to whether it applies to elected officials. According to Cornell’s Legal Information Institute, the interpretation of the clause has never been litigated before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Lawyers for the White House reportedly expect accepting the gift to draw scrutiny and have drafted an analysis for U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which concludes that it is legal for the U.S. Defense Department to accept the gift and then to later hand it over to Trump’s presidential library for his private use when he leaves office.

The Trump administration is looking to the precedent set by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in handling the ethical considerations of accepting a retired presidential aircraft.

The Reagan Library boasts a 90,000-square-foot exhibit hangar that permanently displays a Boeing VC-137C aircraft with the tail letters SAM 27000, which entered service as Air Force One under President Richard Nixon.

Though the plane was used by each president until George W. Bush, it is best known in relation to Reagan and was gifted to his library when it was decommissioned in 2001. Reagan died in 2004.

The difference between the use of the two gifts that could pose a challenge for Trump is that the Reagan Library immediately installed it for permanent display while Trump is reported to be planning to continue using it for personal travel.

Trump currently owns a Boeing 757 that dates to the early 1990s. The jet was originally operated by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen before Trump purchased it in 2011.

Two new Air Force One planes have been in the works since at least 2018 when the Air Force awarded a $3.9 billion contract for two modified Boeing 747-8 planes that were expected for delivery by 2024.

Trump told ABC News in 2019 that he wanted to change up the traditional baby blue and white pattern chosen by former first lady Jacqueline Kennedy in the 1960s to a new color scheme that resembled that of his private jet.

Boeing started modifying the first of the two aircraft in February 2020 and the second in June 2020. According to a 2022 report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the company had completed major structural modifications on the first aircraft and is now preparing it for wiring installations.

However, at the time, Boeing struggled to find workers to complete the modifications because of a “competitive labor market” and “lower-than-planned security clearance approval rates.” The Air Force later lowered security clearance standards to make it easier to find workers.

Last week, Defense One reported that Boeing has told the Air Force it can deliver the new jets by 2027 if the government loosens some requirements.

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