decades

Recently, former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) director general Karl Kendrick Chua said that the Philippines is standing at a “critical juncture” that could determine whether the country finally attains sustained high growth or once again falls into a cycle of lost opportunities.

Speaking during a Makati Business Club briefing, Chua, who now serves as a managing director at Ayala Corp., noted that depending on the policy crafted, the results have been varied. “You have years where the critical juncture led to economic recession or depression. There are years where it led to economic growth,” he added.

The current economic position of the Philippines is the effect of several critical junctures where policy choices either accelerated or derailed long-term development. For example, Chua noted that if the country had avoided the 1983 debt crisis and the 1997–2003 fiscal crisis, per capita income today could have matched or even exceeded Thailand’s. “These crises wiped out decades of growth,” Chua said.

To understand the magnitudes involved, it is instructive to go beyond these remarks. So, let’s take a closer look at these past losses and the more recent ones.

Debt, fiscal and corruption crises            

Starting in 1983, the debt crisis penalized the Philippine GDP for a decade.

Let’s assume that the economic trends that had prevailed prior to the crisis would have prevailed without a crisis. In this view, it was only after the early 1990s, that the Philippines GDP first got to level where it had first been 10 years before. In economic terms, the debt crisis was a lost decade.

Adding the cumulative losses, it cost the economy over $152 billion.

What about the fiscal crisis?

Starting in the mid-1990s, this crisis penalized the GDP until 2011. Again, let’s assume that the economic trend that had prevailed before the fiscal crisis would have prevailed without a crisis. In this view, it was only in the early 2010s that the Philippines GDP got to the level where it had first been almost two decades before.

Adding the cumulative losses, it cost the economy over $630 billion – over four times more than the prior crisis.

Although flood-control corruption is an old challenge, the present crisis associated with it – assuming the critics are right – moved to a new level after 2022. In that case, assuming the present trends prevail, it could penalize the GDP by more than $191 billion by 2028.

Notice that in the case of the debt and fiscal crises, we have historical economic data that allows us to test counterfactuals. Whereas in the case of the flood-control corruption, we are comparing economic performances in the Duterte years (2016-2022) and in the projected Marcos Jr. years (2022-28), in order to assess the economic value of missed opportunities.

The Costs of Three Crises. GDP, current prices; in billions of U.S. dollars. Source: IMF/WEO, author

Losses of almost $1 trillion in four decades        

In a current project, I am examining the economic development of most world economies from the 19^th century up to 2050. The kind of losses that the Philippines has suffered are typical to conflict-prone nations, but somewhat unique in countries that should benefit from peacetime conditions.

The lost opportunities and economic value associated with these crises indicate that in the past 45 years or so, the Philippine GDP has under-performed far more often than it has engaged in more optimal growth.

That translates to missed opportunities of massive magnitude, in light of the size of the economy. All things considered, these losses could amount to more than $970 billion.

Overcoming misguided and self-interested economic policies that serve the few at the expense of the many is vital in a nation, where poverty and food security is the nightmare of every second household.

Pressing need for development and smart diplomacy

According to public surveys, the national priority issues are topped by the need to control the rise in prices of basic goods and services (48%) and fighting corruption (31%). Other major concerns are also domestic featuring affordable food (31%), improving wages (27%), and reducing poverty (23%).

These are all pressing domestic, bread-and-butter issues. And yet, although foreign policy issues represent a fraction in popular national priorities, much of the country’s policy attention and resources have been allocated to precisely such priorities.

Of course, the country should insist on its national interest, but that interest should be defined by the needs of the many, not by the priorities of the few. And that should mean focus on inflation control, corruption, food security, rising wages and poverty reduction.

Most Southeast Asian nations have elevated their economic fortunes by accelerated economic development and smart regional diplomacy. There is no reason why the Philippines couldn’t or shouldn’t do the same.

Most Filipinos would certainly agree.

*Author’s note: The original version was published by The Manila Times on November 24, 2025

Today we discuss Texas, overreaction and the voluminous field of candidates for California governor.

Is there anyone who is not running for governor?

I’m not. And neither are my two cats. At least they weren’t as of this morning, when we discussed the race before breakfast.

That leaves us somewhat short of the 135 candidates who ran in California’s 2003 recall gubernatorial election. But not by much.

I count nearly a dozen serious candidates, with possibly more to come. Why so many?

Opportunity.

This is the most wide-open race for California governor in decades. By comparison, you’d have to go back to at least 1998, when Lt. Gov. Gray Davis surged past a pair of moneybag candidates, Al Checchi and Rep. Jane Harman, in the Democratic primary, then stomped Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in November to win the general election.

Now, as then, there is no one who even remotely resembles a prohibitive front-runner.

Polling in the governor’s race has shown former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, Riverside County’s Republican sheriff, narrowly leading the field. But with support for both in the middling 13%-to-21% range, we’re not talking about a pair of world-beaters.

Like nature, political ambition abhors a vacuum.

Speaking of moneybags…

Tom Steyer!

Yes.

After making a bundle as a hedge fund manager, the San Francisco billionaire and environmental activist has been panting after public office for years. Running for president didn’t work out in 2020, even after Steyer spent more than $345 million on his effort. (That’s close to what the Dodgers spent on their 2025 payroll.)

So now Steyer is running for governor, a move he appeared to telegraph by airing nearly $13 million in self-promotional ads that, oh yes, supported passage of Proposition 50, the Democratic gerrymander initiative.

What are his chances?

Longtime readers of this column — both of you! — will know I make no predictions.

But California voters have never looked favorably upon rich candidates trying to make the leap from political civilian to the governorship or U.S. Senate. In fact, over the last 50-plus years, a gilded gallery of the well-to-do have tried and spectacularly failed.

Perhaps Steyer will display the policy chops or the razzle and dazzle they all lacked. But his launch video certainly didn’t shatter any molds. Rather, it presented a stereotypical grab bag of redwood trees, potshots at Sacramento, multicultural images of hard-working-everyday-folk, a promise to fight, a pledge to build more housing and, of course, a dash of profanity because, gosh darn it, nothing says “unbridled authenticity” like a political candidate swearing!

Maybe his fellow billionaire, Rick Caruso, will show more creativity and imagination if he gets into the governor’s race.

At least Democrats have been showing signs of life.

Indeed. Dare I say, the party’s mood swing from near-suicidal to euphoric has been quite something.

Winning gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia — not by a little, but a lot — and prevailing in down-ballot contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia had a remarkably transformative effect. (Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in sky-blue New York City was no big surprise once the democratic socialist prevailed in the primary.)

Literally overnight, Democrats seized the momentum heading into the 2026 midterm election, while Republicans have begun scrambling to reposition their party and recraft its messaging.

All that being said, even before their buoyant off-year performance those widespread reports of Democrats’ demise were greatly … well, we’ll leave that Mark Twain chestnut alone. As analyst Charlie Cook points out, 2024 was a deeply disappointing year for the party. But it wasn’t a disaster.

Democrats gained two House seats. There was no net change in any of the 11 gubernatorial races and legislative contests across 44 states ended in something close to a wash. The party lost four Senate seats — and control of the chamber — but three of those losses came in the red states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.

“This is not to argue that Democrats had a great night in November 2024, but it certainly wasn’t a massacre or a party-wide repudiation,” Cook wrote in a recent posting. “If voters had intended to take it out on the party as a whole, the results would have looked quite different.”

Rather than a wholesale takedown of Democrats, the result seemed very much a rejection of President Biden and, by extension, his hasty replacement on the ballot, Vice President Kamala Harris.

What does that mean going forth?

If you’re asking whether Democrats will win control of the House or Senate…

Yes?!?

…I haven’t a clue.

Democrats need to gain three seats to take control of the House and both history and Trump’s sagging approval ratings — especially as pertains to the economy — augur well for their chances. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections and, according to Inside Elections, the fewest number of seats that flipped was four.

That’s why I thought Proposition 50, which sets out to all but decapitate California Republicans in Congress, was a bad and unnecessary move, effectively disenfranchising millions of non-Democratic voters.

An appeals court last week tossed out a Republican gerrymander in Texas, putting Democrats in an even stronger position, though the legal wrangling is far from over. The Supreme Court temporarily blocked the decision, pending review. And still to come is a high court ruling that could gut the Voting Rights Act and yield Republicans a dozen or more House seats nationwide.

So the fight for control is far from decided.

As for the Senate, Republicans stand a much better chance of keeping control, given how the seats contested in 2026 are located on largely favorable GOP terrain.

But until the votes are counted, nobody knows what will happen. That’s the thing about elections: they help keep wiseacres like me honest.

Nov. 9 (UPI) — On this date in history:

In 1872, a fire which began in the basement of a warehouse in downtown Boston raged for 12 hours, consuming 65 acres and leaving 776 buildings in ruins. The Great Boston Fire killed at least 30 people.

In 1906, Theodore Roosevelt traveled to Panama to observe the progress being made on the construction of the canal. He was the first sitting president of the United States to embark on an official trip outside the country. The canal opened in 1914 under operation by the U.S. War Department.

In 1918, Germany’s Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicated as World War I drew to a close.

In 1938, mobs of Germans attacked Jewish businesses and homes throughout Germany in what became known as Kristallnacht, or Crystal Night.

In 1953, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Major League Baseball isn’t within the scope of federal antitrust laws.

File Photo by Brian Kersey/UPI

In 1965, a massive power failure left more than 30 million people in the dark in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.

In 1985, Gary Kasparov, 22, became the youngest world chess champion, ending the 10-year reign of Anatoly Karpov in Moscow.

In 1989, East Germany announced free passage for its citizens through border checkpoints. The announcement rendered the Berlin Wall, the most reviled symbol of the Cold War, virtually irrelevant 28 years after its construction.

In 1995, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat visited Israel for the first time to offer personal condolences to the wife of slain Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

In 2008, three men were executed by firing squad for 2002 bombings in Bali that killed 202 people, mostly tourists.

File Photo by Brian Richards/UPI

In 2011, a burgeoning child sexual-abuse scandal at Penn State University involving former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky claimed its legendary football coach when the school’s board of trustees fired Joe Paterno.

In 2012, CIA Director David Petraeus resigned, citing an extramarital affair.

In 2015, the World Anti-Doping Agency recommended that Russia be banned from international sporting events due to systematic doping by athletes. Of the 389 athletes submitted for competition in the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, 111 were prohibited in stringent doping tests required of all Russian athletes.

In 2021, Arlington National Cemetery opened the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Plaza to the public for the first time in nearly 100 years.

In 2023, the Screen Actors Guilt and American Federation of Television and Radio Artists reached a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture Television Producers, ending a 118-day strike that brought Hollywood to a halt.

In 2024, Beyoncé earned 11 nominations for the 67th annual Grammy Awards, making her the most nominated artist in Grammy history, with a lifetime total of 99 nods. As of 2025, she has won 35 of the awards.

File Photo by Christine Chew/UPI

Over the past two decades, Russia’s economic influence in Africa—and specifically in Nigeria—has been limited, largely due to a lack of structured financial support from Russian policy banks and state-backed investment mechanisms. While Russian companies have demonstrated readiness to invest and compete with global players, they consistently cite insufficient government financial guarantees as a key constraint.

Unlike China, India, Japan, and the United States—which have provided billions in concessionary loans and credit lines to support African infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and SMEs—Russia has struggled to translate diplomatic goodwill into substantial economic projects. For example, Nigeria’s trade with Russia accounts for barely 1% of total trade volume, while China and the U.S. dominate at over 15% and 10%, respectively, in the last decade. This disparity highlights the challenges Russia faces in converting agreements into actionable investment.

Lessons from Nigeria’s Past

The limited impact of Russian economic diplomacy echoes Nigeria’s own history of unfulfilled agreements during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration. Over the past 20 years, ambitious energy, transport, and industrial initiatives signed with foreign partners—including Russia—often stalled or produced minimal results. In many cases, projects were approved in principle, but funding shortfalls, bureaucratic hurdles, and weak follow-through left them unimplemented. Nothing monumental emerged from these agreements, underscoring the importance of financial backing and sustained commitment.

China as a Model

Policy experts point to China’s systematic approach to African investments as a blueprint for Russia. Chinese state policy banks underwrite projects, de-risk investments, and provide financing often secured by African sovereign guarantees. This approach has enabled Chinese companies to execute large-scale infrastructure efficiently, expanding their presence across sectors while simultaneously investing in human capital.

Egyptian Professor Mohamed Chtatou at the International University of Rabat and Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco, argues, “Russia could replicate such mechanisms to ensure companies operate with financial backing and risk mitigation, rather than relying solely on bilateral agreements or political connections.”

Russia’s Current Footprint in Africa

Russia’s economic engagement in Africa is heavily tied to natural resources and military equipment. In Zimbabwe, platinum rights and diamond projects were exchanged for fuel or fighter jets. Nearly half of Russian arms exports to Africa are concentrated in countries like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Large-scale initiatives, such as the planned $10 billion nuclear plant in Zambia, have stalled due to a lack of Russian financial commitment, despite completed feasibility studies. Similar delays have affected nuclear projects in South Africa, Rwanda, and Egypt.

Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matviyenko and Senator Igor Morozov have emphasized parliamentary diplomacy and the creation of new financial instruments, such as investment funds under the Russian Export Center, to provide structured support for businesses and enhance trade cooperation. These measures are designed to address historical gaps in financing and ensure that agreements lead to tangible outcomes.

Opportunities and Challenges

Analysts highlight a fundamental challenge: Russia’s limited incentives in Africa. While China invests to secure resources and export markets, Russia lacks comparable commercial drivers. Russian companies possess technological and industrial capabilities, but without sufficient financial support, large-scale projects remain aspirational rather than executable.

The historic Russia-Africa Summits in Sochi and in St. Petersburg explicitly indicate a renewed push to deepen engagement, particularly in the economic sectors. President Vladimir Putin has set a goal to raise Russia-Africa trade from $20 billion to $40 billion over the next few years. However, compared to Asian, European, and American investors, Russia still lags significantly. UNCTAD data shows that the top investors in Africa are the Netherlands, France, the UK, the United States, and China—countries that combine capital support with strategic deployment.

In Nigeria, agreements with Russian firms over energy and industrial projects have yielded little measurable progress. Over 20 years, major deals signed during Obasanjo’s administration and renewed under subsequent governments often stalled at the financing stage. The lesson is clear: political agreements alone are insufficient without structured investment and follow-through.

Strategic Recommendations

For Russia to expand its economic influence in Africa, analysts recommend:

1. Structured financial support: Establishing state-backed credit lines, policy bank guarantees, and investment funds to reduce project risks.

2. Incentive realignment: Identifying sectors where Russian expertise aligns with African needs, including energy, industrial technology, and infrastructure.

3. Sustained implementation: Turning signed agreements into tangible projects with clear timelines and milestones, avoiding the pitfalls of unfulfilled past agreements.

With proper financial backing, Russia can leverage its technological capabilities to diversify beyond arms sales and resource-linked deals, enhancing trade, industrial, and technological cooperation across Africa.

Conclusion

Russia’s Africa strategy remains a work in progress. Nigeria’s experience with decades of agreements that failed to materialize underscores the importance of structured financial commitments and persistent follow-through. Without these, Russia risks remaining a peripheral player (virtual investor) while Arab States such as the UAE, China, the United States, and other global powers consolidate their presence.

The potential is evident: Africa is a fast-growing market with vast natural resources, infrastructure needs, and a young, ambitious population. Russia’s challenge—and opportunity—is to match diplomatic efforts with financial strategy, turning political ties into lasting economic influence.

A LONG-LOST rail link could soon return as part of a major rail investment that promises new jobs and better connections across the country.

The service, which runs between Swindon and Birmingham, is expected to be reinstated through the £1.75 billion Midlands Rail Hub project.

The project aims to transform journeys across the Midlands, the South West, and South Wales.

The forgotten train line last operated in the early 2000s, more than 20 years ago.

The town and city, which are located around 80 miles from each other, have been without a direct connection ever since.

Swindon, with a population of over 180,000, is the biggest town in Wiltshire, and is located on the edge of the Cotswolds.

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While Birmingham is an important industrial and cultural centre, and the UK’s second-largest city with a population of around 1.2 million.

The proposed plans are on track to deliver up to 130 extra train services each week, which would provide around two million additional passenger seats a year.

Andy Clark, rail programme lead at Midlands Connect, said: “This would be a real boost for passengers.”

The first phase of the scheme is also expected to create nearly 13,000 jobs nationwide.

Swindon North MP Will Stone welcomed the development, saying it would boost the local economy and reconnect communities that have long relied on slower, indirect services.

Currently, there are no direct services between Swindon and Birmingham, meaning passengers must change at Cheltenham, Gloucester, or Reading stations.

The revived route would re-establish a direct connection between the two cities.

Mr Stone said: “It’s fantastic that Swindon could be benefiting from the Midlands Rail hub expansion.

“We’re a town built on connection via the railways, and so it’s great to see Swindon getting an hourly service between a fellow industrial town like Birmingham.”

Once home to the Great Western Railway works, Swindon has a proud railway heritage that shaped the town’s identity.

The project has secured government backing following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending review and forms part of the government’s 10-year infrastructure strategy.

Mr Stone added: “Innovative projects like the Midlands Rail hub prove that investments in our railways, fully funded by the Chancellor, are transformative for communities, bringing new jobs and skills to areas across the country.”

Nov. 1 (UPI) — The Grand Egyptian Museum in Giza, Egypt, is one of the world’s largest and opened on Saturday after decades of delays and a cost of more than $1 billion.

The 5 million-square-foot museum features exhibits and artifacts ranging across 7,000 years, from prehistory to about 400 A.D., according to CBS News.

It also is the world’s only museum that is dedicated to one culture, which is ancient Egypt.

“It’s a great day for Egypt and for humanity,” Nevine El-Aref told CBS News. “This is Egypt’s gift to the world.”

El-Aref is the media advisor to Egypt’s Tourism and Antiquities Minister Sherif Fathy.

“It’s a dream come true,” El-Aref added. “After all these years, the GEM is finally and officially open,” he said.

The triangular structure is located about a mile from the pyramids of Giza, which makes it a can’t miss for those who want to experience Egyptian antiquities up close with tours of the pyramids and a visit to the museum.

The GEM’s construction initially was budgeted for $500 million, but that price more than doubled over the past three decades amid delays and cost overruns.

Egyptian sources and international contributions covered the building cost.

The museum first was proposed in 1992, but significant events occurred between then and now, including the 2011 “Arab Spring” revolution in Egypt, a military coup d’etat in 2013 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, delaying its completion, CNN reported.

The GEM’s main entrance features a 53-foot-tall obelisk suspended overhead and is viewable from below via a glass floor.

A grand staircase containing 108 steps enables visitors to access the museum’s main galleries and view large statues from top to bottom.

The GEM has 12 main halls for exhibits and encompasses a combined 194,000 square feet that can hold up to 100,000 items, according to the museum.

The museum also two galleries that are dedicated to the pharaoh Tutankhamun and contain 5,300 pieces from his tomb, NBC News reported.

Those galleries and others will exhibit items that never have been made available for public viewing.

It’s also the first time that all of the young pharaoh’s items have been exhibited under the same roof since British archaeologist Howard Carter discovered King Tut‘s tomb in the Valley of the Kings in 1922.

The museum’s walls and slanted ceilings mimic the lines of the nearby pyramids, but the structure does not exceed them in height.

The museum’s opening prompted the Egyptian government to declare a national holiday on Saturday.

How it ranks with the world’s other iconic museums remains to be seen, but it likely will rank favorably with its unique collection of ancient Egyptian artifacts and other attractions.