crush

Several Big Tech companies have reported earnings in recent weeks and provided estimates for their spending in 2026, along with leading analysts’ projections.

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The data point that seems to have caught Wall Street’s attention the most is the estimated capital expenditure (CapEx) for this year, which collectively represents an investment of over $700bn (€590bn) in AI infrastructure.

That is more than the entire nominal GDP of Sweden for 2025, one of Europe’s largest economies, as per IMF estimates.

Global chip sales are also projected to reach $1tn (€842bn) for the first time this year, according to the US Semiconductor Industry Association.

In addition, major banks and consulting firms, such as JPMorgan Chase and McKinsey, project that total AI CapEx will surpass $5tn (€4.2tn) by 2030, driven by “astronomical demand” for compute.

CapEx refers to funds a company spends to build, improve or maintain long-term assets like property, equipment and technology. These investments are meant to boost the firm’s capacity and efficiency over several years.

The expenditure is also not fully deducted in the same year. CapEx costs are capitalised on the balance sheet and gradually expensed through depreciation, representing a key indicator of how a company is investing in its future growth and operational strength.

The leap this year confirms a definitive pivot that began in 2025, when Big Tech is estimated to have spent around $400bn (€337bn) on AI CapEx.

As Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly stated, including at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, we are witnessing “the largest infrastructure build-out in human history”.

Hyperscalers bet the house

At the top of the spending hierarchy for 2026 sits Amazon, which alone is guiding to invest a mammoth $200bn (€170bn).

To put the number into perspective, the company’s individual AI CapEx guidance for this year surpasses the combined nominal GDP of the three Baltic countries in 2025, according to IMF projections.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, follows with $185bn (€155bn), while Microsoft and Meta are set to deploy $145bn (€122bn) and $135bn (€113bn) respectively.

Oracle also raised its 2026 CapEx to $50bn (€42.1bn), nearly $15bn (€12.6bn) above earlier estimates.

Additionally, Tesla projects double the spending with almost $20bn (€16.8bn), primarily to scale its robotaxi fleet and advance the development of the Optimus humanoid robot.

Another of Elon Musk’s companies, xAI, will also spend at least $30bn (€25.2bn) in 2026.

A new $20bn (€16.8bn) data centre named MACROHARDRR will be built in Mississippi, which Governor Tate Reeves stated is “the largest private sector investment in the state’s history”.

xAI will also expand the so-called Colossus, a cluster of data centres in Tennessee that has been described by Musk as the world’s largest AI supercomputer.

Furthermore, the company was acquired by SpaceX in an all-stock transaction at the start of this month.

The merger valued SpaceX at $1tn (€842bn) and xAI at $250bn (€210bn), creating an entity worth $1.25tn (€1.05tn), reputedly the largest private company by valuation in history.

There are also reports that SpaceX intends to IPO sometime this year, with Morgan Stanley allegedly in talks to manage the offering that now includes exposure to xAI.

Elon Musk stated that the goal is to build an “integrated innovation engine” combining AI, rockets and satellite internet, with long-term plans that include space-based data centres powered by solar energy.

Conversely, Apple continues to lag in spending with “only” a projected $13bn (€10.9bn).

However, the company announced a multi-year partnership with Google last month to integrate Gemini AI models into the next generation of Apple Intelligence.

Specifically, the collaboration will focus on overhauling Siri and enhancing on-device AI features. Therefore, one could say that Apple is outsourcing a lot of the investment it needs to be competitive on AI development.

As for Nvidia, it will report earnings and release projections on 25 February.

The company is primarily in the business of selling AI chips, and is expected to get the lion’s share of the Big Tech’s spending. Particularly, for the build-out of data centres.

In last August’s earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang estimated a cost per gigawatt of data centre capacity between $50bn (€42.1bn) and $60bn (€50.5bn), with about $35bn (€29.5bn) of each investment going towards Nvidia hardware.

The great capital rotation

Wall Street has had mixed feelings about the enormous spending Big Tech companies have planned for 2026.

On the one hand, investors understand the necessity and urgency of developing a competitive edge in the artificial intelligence age.

On the other, the sheer scale of the spending has also spooked some shareholders. The market’s tolerance hinges on demonstrable ROI from this year onwards, as the investments are also increasingly financed with massive debt raises.

Morgan Stanley estimates that hyperscalers will borrow around $400bn (€337bn) in 2026, more than double the $165bn (€139bn) that was loaned out in 2025.

This surge could push the total issuance of high-grade US corporate bonds to a record $2.25tn (€1.9tn) this year.

Currently, projected AI revenue for 2026 is nowhere near matching the spending, and there are valid concerns. For instance, the possibility of hardware rapidly depreciating due to innovation, and other high operational costs such as energy usage.

It can be confidently stated that the numbers have a heavy reliance on future success.

As Google CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged this month, there are “elements of irrationality in the current spending pace”.

Back in November, Alex Haissl, an analyst at Rothschild & Co, became a dissenting voice as he downgraded ratings for Amazon and Microsoft.

In a note to clients, the analyst wrote “investors are valuing Amazon and Microsoft’s CapEx plans as if cloud-1.0 economics still applied”, referring to the low-cost structure of cloud-based services that allowed Big Tech firms to scale in the last two decades.

However, the analyst added “there are a few problems that suggest the AI boom likely won’t play out in the same way, and it is probably far more costly than investors realise”.

This view is also shared by Michael Burry, who is best known for being among the first investors to predict and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Burry has argued that the current AI boom is a potential bubble pointing to unsustainable CapEx.

Big Tech’s AI race is funded by a tremendous amount of leverage. Whether this strategy will pay off, and which companies will be the winners and the losers, only time will tell.

At the moment, Nvidia certainly seems to be a great beneficiary. Moreover, Apple has a distinct approach by increasing third party reliance, through a partnership with Google, instead of massively scaling their spending. It is a different trade-off.

Europe’s industrial deficit

Amid all this spending, urgent questions have also been raised about Europe’s ability to compete in a race that has become a battle of balance sheets.

For the European Union, the transatlantic contrast is sobering. While American firms are mobilising nearly €600bn in a single year, the EU’s coordinated efforts do not even match the financial firepower of the lowest spender among the US tech titans.

Brussels has attempted to rally with the AI Factories initiative, and the AI Continent Action Plan launched last April, which aim to mobilise public-private investments.

However, the numbers tell a stark story. Total European spending on sovereign cloud data infrastructure is forecast to reach just €10.6bn in 2026.

While this is a respectable 83% increase year-on-year, it remains a rounding error compared to the US AI build-out.

Last year, at the time when the initiatives mentioned were being discussed, the CEO of the French unicorn Mistral AI, Arthur Mensch, stated that “US companies are building the equivalent of a new Apollo program every year”.

Mensch also added that “Europe is building excellent regulation with the AI Act, but you cannot regulate your way to computing supremacy”.

Mistral represents one of the only flickers of European resistance in the AI race. The French company is employing the same strategy as most of Big Tech and aggressively expanding its physical footprint.

In September 2025, Mistral AI raised a €1.7bn Series C at a valuation of almost €12bn, with the Dutch semiconductor giant ASML leading the round by singly investing €1.3bn.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, Mistral’s CEO confirmed a €1bn CapEx plan for 2026.

Just last week, the company also announced a major €1.2bn investment to build a data centre in Borlänge, Sweden.

In a partnership with the Swedish operator, EcoDataCenter, the facility will be designed to offer “sovereign compute” compliant with the EU’s strict data standards, and leveraging Sweden’s abundant green energy.

Set to open in 2027, this data centre will provide the high-performance computing required to train and deploy Mistral’s next-generation AI models.

This is an important move for the company, as it is the first infrastructure project outside France, and it is also a core venture for European data sovereignty.

Meanwhile, US tech titans are attempting to placate European regulators by offering “sovereign-light” solutions. Several Big Tech projects have been rolled out for “localised cloud zones”, for example in Germany and Portugal, promising data residency.

However, critics argue these remain technically dependent on US parent companies, leaving the European industry vulnerable to the whims of the American economy and foreign policy.

As 2026 unfolds, the stakes are clear. The US is betting the house, and its credit rating, on AI dominance.

Europe, cautious and capital-constrained, is hoping that targeted investments and regulation will be enough to carve out a sovereign niche in a world increasingly run on American technology.

SANTA CLARA — Sam Darnold did not really know what to say.

So as the Seattle Seahawks quarterback stood on stage at Levi’s Stadium after becoming a Super Bowl champion, he made a few comments thanking teammates and fans before ultimately boiling it down to this:

“Just a job well done,” he said.

The words were simple. Concise. And captured the essence of a player who traveled a road filled with disappointments and setbacks but always believed in himself.

On Sunday, Darnold was far from spectacular. But the former San Clemente High and USC star played error-free, tossed a touchdown pass and let running back Kenneth Walker III, kicker Jason Myers and a dominating defense do the rest in a 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

It was the Seahawks second Super Bowl title, their first since 2014.

That Seahawks team featured the legendary “Legion of Boom” defense.

This year’s defense dubbed itself the “Dark Side.” All-Pros do not abound. Individual personalities lean more toward quietly confident rather than brash.

And on Sunday, it lit up the stadium by harassing Patriots quarterback Drake Maye into three turnovers and sacking him six times.

Linebacker Derick Hall forced a third-quarter fumble that turned the momentum. Safety Julian Love ended any real chance of a comeback with a fourth-quarter interception. And, after cornerback Devon Witherspoon hit Maye’s arm on a blitz, linebacker Uchenna Nwosu returned an interception for a touchdown.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws an interception as he is hit by Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon in the fourth quarter of Seattle’s 29-13 win in Super Bowl LX on Sunday.

(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

“They lived up to the ‘Dark Side’ today,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said as he held the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the winner’s stage. “It’s going to go down in the history books.”

Myers made history by kicking a Super Bowl-record five field goals. Walker rushed for 135 yards and was voted the game’s most valuable player, the first running back to win the award since Terrell Davis in 1998.

But the story of the Seahawks’ season revolved around Darnold.

The third pick in the 2018 draft endured tough times with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers before he spent a season as the backup for the San Francisco 49ers. In 2024, he led the Minnesota Vikings to 14 victories but the team did not re-sign him.

The Seahawks welcomed him with open arms, and he became the first former USC quarterback to start a Super Bowl.

Is this what the Seahawks envisioned when they signed Darnold to a three-year deal with $55 million in guarantees?

Seahawks coach Mike MacDonald holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy on stage in front of Sam Darnold and Kenneth Walker III following a 29-13 win over the New England Patriots on Sunday.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

“Yeah, absolutely,” general manager John Schneider said in a celebratory locker room filled with cigar smoke and champagne. “The person, the leader — he’s the ultimate competitor.”

On Sunday, Darnold was not nearly as sharp as he was in a pivotal Week 16 overtime victory over the Rams, and the NFC championship game against the Rams.

But early in the fourth quarter, he connected with tight end AJ Barner for a touchdown that gave the Seahawks a 19-0 lead. He completed 19 of 38 passes for 202 yards. He did not have a pass intercepted. He did not fumble.

“I feel like I could have been a lot better,” he said. “Feel like we could have scored more points, to be quite frank. But again, we got the job done.”

A job well done by Darnold all season, teammates said.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold throws a pass during the second half against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Sunday.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

“That’s the heartbeat,” linebacker Ernest Jones IV said. “Truly the heartbeat of our team.”

Receiver Cooper Kupp marveled at Darnold’s “redemption story.”

“I don’t know if there’s a quarterback in NFL history that’s done what he’s done,” Kupp said after catching six passes for 61 yards.

Kupp and Jones can speak with authority about redemption.

Last March, the Rams released Kupp, the 2021 NFL offensive player of the year and most valuable player of Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium. He signed with his home state Seahawks and instantly became a veteran leader.

Now he’s a two-time Super Bowl champion.

“Sounds pretty good,” Kupp said, grinning. “That’s unbelievable, man.

“The story that’s been written, my story, I don’t know if I could have written a better ending to this year. Some really tough times this year, and to be in this place, be able to go through this year with these guys, it’s one of the most fun years I’ve had.”

Jones started for the Rams in Super Bowl LVI as a rookie but rather than extending him after his third year, the team traded him to Tennessee before last season. The Titans later traded him to the Seahawks, who gave him a three-year extension last spring.

“It’s amazing, man,” Jones said of being a two-time champion. “Those California Super Bowls — I like those.”

After Darnold’s touchdown pass, it appeared the Seahawks were on their way to the first shutout in Super Bowl history. But Maye came back and fired a touchdown pass to Mack Hollins, pulling the Patriots to within 12 points.

Patriots fans perhaps envisioned a repeat of Super Bowl LI in 2017, when Tom Brady led the Patriots back from a 28-3 deficit to beat the Atlanta Falcons.

But the Seahawks made sure that was not going to happen.

Love picked off a Maye pass, and Myers kicked his final field goal to increase the lead to 22-7. Late in the fourth quarter, Witherspoon hit Maye, and Nwosu grabbed the ball in the air and returned it 45 yards for a 29-7 lead.

The Seahawks were on their way to finishing the season with their 10th consecutive victory.

Maye, runner-up to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for the NFL most valuable player award, completed 27 of 43 passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions.

“They had applied some pressure where they got us a few times,” Maye said, “and we’ve got to be better with the football and make better decisions and I’ve got to make better throws when the game goes like that.”

When it was over, Darnold was holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy on stage.

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, left, and running back Kenneth Walker III celebrate on stage after a 29-13 win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Sunday.

(Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

“I was like, ‘This thing’s a lot lighter than I thought it was,’” he said. “But it was great just to be able to hold that trophy and finally enjoy it.”

Darnold will enjoy something else: He will now forever be known as Super Bowl-champion Sam Darnold.

“It’s special, man,” he said. “I’m not going to lie — it’s a dream come true. It really is.

“Just going to continue to lean in to that, and soak it all in.”