crude oil

Global markets were buoyed on Monday morning by expectations of another Fed rate cut and growing optimism that the US and China are moving closer to a trade deal, following comments from President Donald Trump.

The optimism wiped out gains in safe-haven assets such as gold futures and boosted stock exchanges across the globe.

Yet, leading European benchmark indexes opened mostly flat, except for Milan’s FTSE MIB, which was up by 0.61%. Madrid IBEX 35 also gained 0.37% by around 11:00 CEST.

At the same time, European benchmark STOXX 600, as well as the FTSE 100 in London, remained nearly flat. The DAX in Frankfurt gained 0.15% while Paris’ CAC 40 lost less than 0.1%. This came after credit rating agency Moody’s changed France’s outlook from stable to negative on Friday.

Investors in Europe are closely watching for signs of economic health, with one of the strongest indicators — the first reading of the eurozone’s third-quarter GDP — due on Thursday.

On the same day, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting. Given that inflation in the bloc has remained around the bank’s 2% target, the ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady this week for its third straight meeting. The key deposit rate has been at 2% since June.

US-China relations

Across the globe on Monday, US futures were mostly up in pre-market trading. This came as Asian shares rallied too, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 topping 50,000 for the first time.

Later this week, the US President has a scheduled meeting with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (known as APEC), to discuss the trade deal between the world’s two strongest economies.

US and Chinese officials confirmed on Sunday that they had reached an initial consensus for Trump and President Xi Jinping to finalise during a meeting later in the week.

“I have a lot of respect for President Xi,” Trump told reporters after visiting Malaysia for a summit of Southeast Asian nations, where he reached preliminary trade agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

“I think we’re going to come away with a deal,” Trump said.

And investors see it as a strong signal. According to Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management: “This isn’t just photo-op diplomacy. Behind the showmanship, Washington and Beijing’s top trade lieutenants have quietly mapped out a framework that might, just might, keep the world’s two largest economies from tearing up the field again.”

The enthusiasm brought about a shift in risk-taking among investors, demonstrated by a fall in gold futures. The safe-haven asset’s continuous contract fell by almost 2% on Monday morning, as an ounce was priced at $4,055.50.

The euro and Japanese yen remained flat against the US dollar. One euro was traded at $1.1638, while the greenback cost ¥152.8070. The British pound climbed 0.26% against the US dollar, and the rate was at $1.3345.

Crude oil prices fell after European markets opened, with both benchmarks trading nearly 1% lower. The US benchmark WTI crude’s price was $61.06 a barrel, and Brent was at $65.47.

In other dealings, leading cryptocurrencies were up. CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) gained 4.86% and climbed to $115,395.34. Ethereum cost $4,171.84, up by 4.82% on Monday morning in Europe.

Another Fed rate cut on the cards, coupled with Big Tech reports

Wall Street hit record highs on Friday, after lower-than-expected inflation numbers from the US fuelled further hope that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates further this Wednesday.

The data on inflation was encouraging because it could mean less pain for lower- and middle-income households struggling with still-high increases in prices. Even more importantly for Wall Street, it could also clear the way for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates in hopes of giving a boost to the slowing job market.

The Fed just cut its main interest rate last month for the first time this year, but it’s been hesitant to promise more relief because lower rates can make inflation worse, beyond boosting the economy and prices for investments.

Meanwhile, a flood of big tech companies’ earnings is on its way this week, with Microsoft, Meta and Google-parent Alphabet reporting on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon’s numbers are due to be released on Thursday.

Better-than-expected profits could fuel hopes for steady growth in the US. Information is scarce about the current state of the world’s biggest economy due to the prolonged government shutdown.

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European stocks rose on Wednesday morning after a string of strong corporate results a day earlier, while equities were also boosted by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In Philadelphia on Tuesday, Powell suggested that another interest rate cut could come later this month in the US.

In Europe, shares in Netherlands-headquartered ASML, which makes equipment used in the production of AI chips, jumped after the company posted promising results on Wednesday.

The shares rose more than 4%, after Europe’s largest company by market value reported third-quarter earnings fuelled by the AI boom. ASML’s stocks have rallied by almost 50% since August.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, French multinational luxury group LVMH said its organic growth re-entered positive territory in the third quarter. The luxury giant’s shares jumped by more than 14% by 13.00 CEST.

The mood in France also shifted on news that the government had significantly improved its chances of surviving a looming no-confidence vote on Thursday.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won the much-needed support of the Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly, in exchange for suspending a pension law that raises the retirement age. The CAC 40 in Paris jumped over 2% by 13.00 CEST.

The main European benchmark stock exchanges were also in the green, except for London’s FTSE 100, which lost 0.43%. Meanwhile, the DAX in Frankfurt gained less than 0.1%. Milan’s FTSE MIB was up by 0.36%, Madrid’s Ibex 35 gained 0.71% and the STOXX 600 saw a 0.6% gain.

Gold continued its rally, hitting a high of $4,217 per ounce. Gold has soared over 60% in 2025 as investors seek a safe haven during a period of uncertainty, notably driven by US tariffs and trade tensions.

Global markets are on the rise after the Fed Chair’s words

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled on Tuesday that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market, raising expectations that the central bank will come through with another rate cut.

“Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” he said at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics in Philadelphia.

Traders took his words to heart, particularly as the US government shutdown has prevented the release of fresh economic data.

“[Investors were] reading Powell like a haiku — every pause, every syllable weighed for hidden meaning,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

“The message, once decoded, was clear enough: two rate cuts aren’t just a possibility, they’re the main course,” Innes said.

The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September amid worries that unemployment could worsen.

“Markets have been lifted by the rekindling of rate cut expectations in the US after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, which highlighted sluggish hiring were taken as an indication that not one, but two further cuts were very much on the table for 2025,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis.

“Buoyed by continued deal-making in the frothy AI sector, investors seem prepared to overlook the growing number of warnings about the potential for a market correction at the moment, but this earnings season will be crucial if that optimism is to continue.”

S&P 500 futures rose 0.64% during the early afternoon in Europe, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.41%. Nasdaq futures were up by 0.79%.

On Tuesday, US markets closed a mixed trading day, with the S&P 500 giving up 0.16% and the Dow climbing 0.44%. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.76%.

Markets remain volatile as the US and China exchange threats of new trade sanctions and tariffs.

Technology stocks are hypersensitive to trade issues since big chipmakers and other companies rely on China for raw materials and manufacturing. China’s large consumer base is also important for its sales growth.

In other dealings early Wednesday, US benchmark crude oil was circling around $58.65 per barrel (€50.43) and Brent crude, the international standard, was traded around $62.24 (€53.52) per barrel.

The US dollar slipped 0.25% against the Japanese yen, while the euro rose 0.19% against the dollar. The British Pound gained 0.35% against the greenback.

SACRAMENTO — Amid concerns that refinery closures could send gas prices soaring, California legislative leaders Wednesday introduced a last-minute deal aimed at increasing oil production to shore up the struggling fossil-fuel industry while further restricting offshore drilling.

The compromise, brokered by Gov. Gavin Newsom, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire, would streamline environmental approvals for new wells in oil-rich Kern County and increase oil production. The bill also would make offshore drilling more difficult by tightening the safety and regulatory requirements for pipelines.

With support from Rivas and McGuire, Senate Bill 237 is expected to pass as part of a flurry of last-minute activity during the Legislature’s final week. Newsom’s office said the governor “looks forward to signing it when it reaches his desk.”

The late introduction of the measure may force the Legislature to extend its 2025 session, set to end Friday, by another day because bills must be in print for 72 hours before they can be voted on.

The bill was introduced Wednesday as part of a package of energy policies that aims to address growing concerns about affordability and the closure of California oil refineries.

Valero and Phillips 66 plan to close plants in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County’s South Bay, which would reduce California’s in-state oil refining capacity by an estimated 20%. Industry experts warn that losing refining capacity could lead to more volatile gas prices.

The closures have become a sore spot for Newsom and for state Democrats, pitting their longtime clean-energy goals against concerns about the rising cost of living — a major political liability.

The package tries to strike a balance between the oil industry and climate activists, but neither side seemed particularly pleased: Environmental groups panned the agreements, and industry groups said they were still reviewing the bill.

“I don’t think what’s in that legislation is going to keep refineries open,” said Michael Wara, the director of Stanford University’s Climate and Energy Policy Program.

Crude oil produced in California makes up a fraction of what refineries turn into gasoline, he said, so although increasing production may help stabilize the decline of local oil companies, it won’t benefit the refineries.

The bill would grant statutory approval for up to 2,000 new wells per year in the oil fields of Kern County, the heart of California oil country, which produce about three-fourths of the state’s crude oil. That legislative fix, effective through 2036, would in effect circumvent years of legal challenges by environmental groups seeking to stymie drilling.

The state, which has championed and pioneered progressive environmental policies to slash carbon emissions, also is home to a billion-dollar oil industry that helps power its economy and has significant political sway in Sacramento. Despite steady declines in production, California remains the eighth-largest crude oil producing state in the nation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Hollin Kretzmann, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, said the legislation “acknowledges the harms of oil drilling yet takes radical steps to boost it.”

“Removing environmental safeguards won’t reverse the terminal decline of California oil production but it will allow the industry to do more damage on its way out the door,” Kretzmann said, adding that it will have “no impact on refinery closures or gas prices.”

Ted Cordova, a vice president of E&B Natural Resources, an oil and natural gas company with operations in Kern County, told reporters earlier this week that California needs to reverse falling oil production to keep refineries operating. He said his firm gets emails from pipeline companies saying they are operating “at dangerously low levels, can you send us more?”

The bill also has the potential to create new hurdles for Sable Offshore Corp., the Texas oil firm that is moving toward restarting offshore drilling along Santa Barbara County’s coast, depending on when the company navigates through a litany of ongoing litigation and necessary state approvals.

The company has moved forward on repairs to the network of oil pipelines that burst in 2015 in one of the state’s worst oil spills, despite opposition from the California Coastal Commission.

The bill, which would take effect in January, reasserts the authority of the commission to oversee pipeline repair projects and requires the “best available technology” for any pipe transporting petroleum from offshore. That could add lengthy governmental reviews for Sable if the operation isn’t running by January.

The company, despite reports that it’s running low on capital and has suffered repeated setbacks, continues to say it hopes to begin sales as soon as possible.

Representatives from Sable did not respond to questions Wednesday.

Mary Nichols, an attorney at UCLA Law’s Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said the bill probably wouldn’t affect the ongoing project off Santa Barbara County’s coast — which remains tied up in litigation — but makes clear that there’s no easy path for any other company looking to take advantage of offshore oil in federal waters under the oil-friendly Trump administration.

“This was designed to send a message to anybody else who might be thinking about doing the same thing,” said Nichols, a former chair of the California Air Resources Board.

Lawmakers also introduced a tentative deal on cap-and-trade, an ambitious climate program that has raised roughly $31 billion since its inception 11 years ago. The revised language would extend the program from its current 2030 deadline until 2045.

The program, last renewed in 2017, requires major polluters such as power plants and oil refineries to purchase credits for each ton of carbon dioxide they emit, and allows those companies buy or sell their unused credits at quarterly auctions.

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisun City), one of the authors of SB 237, said she was glad to make progress on the push and pull between the state’s fuel needs and its commitment to green energy. She said she understands there are environmental concerns, but “at the end of the day, our purpose was an issue of petroleum supply.”

“We all don’t want an import model,” she said.

Times staff writers Melody Gutierrez and Hayley Smith contributed to this report.

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Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets caused the price of oil to surge more than 7% on Friday since Tehran is one of the world’s major producers of oil, despite sanctions by Western countries limiting its sales.

A wider war could slow the flow of Iranian oil to its customers and keep prices of crude and gasoline higher for everyone worldwide. But early Monday, those concerns appeared to abate slightly.

Oil prices were still volatile on the fourth day of the Israeli-Iran crisis, before giving back a bit of their gains. On Monday morning, the US benchmark crude oil was traded at $73.71 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, cost $74 per barrel, down from Friday but still 7% higher than the price before the missile fire started. 

Military strikes between Israel and Iran are fuelling concerns that oil exports from the Middle East could be significantly disrupted. However, there is currently no indication that the oil flow is impacted, and concerns are running high.

Meanwhile, major oil companies are being rewarded on the stock market: BP and Shell both gained more than 1% in the Monday morning trade in Europe. 

“Gains in oil majors and defence contractors have helped to push the FTSE 100 onto a positive footing in early trade,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown financial services company.

Shares in the FTSE 100’s top banks were also rising on inflation fears that could result in higher key interest rates. Standard Chartered rose nearly 3%, Barclays and Natwest were up by more than 1% by 11 am CEST. 

Also strengthening the banking sector’s gains in London, Metro Bank shares soared by more than 14% following speculation that investment firm Pollen Street Capital would take over the lender, Sky News first reported over the weekend.

Investors in London also gained confidence after data for May showed a 6.1% year-on-year jump in retail sales in China, the world’s second biggest economy. However, it was coupled with lower-than-expected growth in industrial output, which still rose 5.8% from the previous year.

After 11 am in Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.3% to 8,876.26. Germany’s DAX gained 0.2% to 23,572.39 and the CAC 40 in Paris edged 0.6% higher to 7,728.66. 

The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.5%.

During Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 1.3% to 38,311.33, while the Kospi in Seoul gained 1.8% to 2,946.66.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.7% to 24,060.99 and the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4% to 3,388.73.

The price of gold has climbed as it remains a safe haven asset. An ounce of gold added 1.4% on Friday, but gave back some of its gains on Monday morning, and was traded at around $3,437 an ounce.

Prices for US Treasury bonds are also on the rise when investors are feeling nervous, but Treasury prices fell Friday, which in turn pushed up their yields, in part because of worries that a spike in oil prices could drive inflation higher.

Inflation in the US has remained relatively tame recently, and it’s near the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. However, concerns remain high that it could accelerate due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

A better-than-expected report Friday on sentiment among US consumers also helped drive yields higher. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan stated that sentiment improved for the first time in six months after Trump put many of his tariffs on pause, while US consumers’ expectations for future inflation eased.

In currency trading early Monday, the US dollar gained to 144.18 Japanese yen from 144.03 yen. The euro rose to $1.1582 from $1.1533.

What is expected for the week?

The Middle East conflict is set to be the focus of the G7 meeting of leaders of wealthy nations in Canada this week.

There are also hopes that Trump will sign more trade deals, which keeps trade optimism a bit higher.

“It’s a big week in terms of decisions on interest rates and the direction of monetary policy,” Streeter said.

“The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold this week but comments from chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched for future direction of policy.”

Meanwhile, there is a monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England this week, where “policymakers are expected to press pause on rate cuts,” Streeter explained, citing the potential impact of higher energy costs. 

Meanwhile, the UK government’s infrastructure plans are going to be revealed in more detail this week. “The 10-year strategy, worth £725 billion (€850.8 bn), is the backbone of the Starmer administration’s plan to kickstart growth,” Streeter said.

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European equities tumbled when the market opened on Friday and oil prices surged, as investors reacted to Israel’s large-scale air strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, fuelling fears of a broader Middle East conflict.

The operation, named Rising Lion, marks the most extensive Israeli military action on Iranian soil to date, targeting over 100 facilities including the Natanz complex and missile sites near Tehran.

As of 9.15am CEST, the Euro STOXX 50 had dropped 1.5%, extending weekly losses to 2.7% — the worst performance since early April.

Financials led the downturn among Eurozone blue chips. Deutsche Bank fell 2.73%, UniCredit 2.56%, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria 2.48% and Banco Santander 2.46%.

Germany’s DAX lost 1.34% to 23,453, France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.35% to 7,660, Italy’s FTSE MIB retreated 1.68% to 39,271, and Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 1.70% to 13,849.

Oil prices surged following the Israeli strike, as markets began to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Brent crude jumped over 5% to trade at $73 (€68) per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $71.5 (€66.60). For the week, oil prices are up more than 10%, on track for the strongest weekly gain since October 2022.

As energy prices rallied, oil majors such as Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol gained 2%.

German defence powerhouse Rheinmetall also rose 2% as investors turned to military and security-exposed stocks.

Dutch TTF natural gas futures climbed 2% to €37.12 per megawatt hour, amid concerns over potential disruptions to energy flows.

The Israeli campaign involved over 200 fighter jets, according to the IDF, and reportedly resulted in the death of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri.

Gold eyes new record, dollar rebounds

Demand for safe-haven assets surged. Gold rose 1% to $3,430 (€3,200) per ounce, nearing its all-time high of $3,500. Silver also held ground, hitting $36.5 per ounce overnight.

The dollar gained strength following days of steady declines. The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1540 after touching a three-year high of 1.16 on Thursday. On the data front, Germany’s final inflation reading for May was confirmed at 2.1% year-over-year. Spain’s annual inflation was upwardly revised from 1.9% to 2%.

The pound also slipped 0.5% to $1.1350.

The Israeli shekel tumbled 1.8% against the dollar, heading for its steepest daily loss since the Hamas attack of October 2023.

Analysts see upside risks for oil prices

“The Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has sent oil prices spiking and has offered the oversold and undervalued dollar a catalyst for a rebound,” said Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING.

While there are currently no confirmed disruptions to oil production, analysts warn that the situation could escalate rapidly.

“The key difference from previous standoffs is that nuclear facilities have now been targeted,” Pesole added.

Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING, noted: “In a scenario where we see continued escalation, there’s the potential for disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves through that route.”

He warned that up to 14 million barrels per day could be at risk, with oil potentially surging to $120 per barrel in the event of a prolonged disruption — levels not seen since 2008.

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Thursday sharply limited the reach of environmental impact statements in a victory for developers.

The justices said these claims of the potential impact on the environment have been used too often to delay or block new projects.

“A 1970 legislative acorn has grown over the years into a judicial oak that has hindered infrastructure development under the guise of just a little more process. A course correction of sorts is appropriate,” said Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, speaking for the court.

He said procedural law has given judges and environmentalists too much authority to hinder or prevent development, he said.

“Fewer projects make it to the finish line. Indeed, fewer projects make it to the starting line. Those that survive often end up costing much more than is anticipated or necessary,” he said. “And that in turn means fewer and more expensive railroads, airports, wind turbines, transmission lines, dams, housing developments, highways, bridges, subways, stadiums, arenas, data centers, and the like. And that also means fewer jobs, as new projects become difficult to finance and build in a timely fashion.”

In a unanimous decision, the high court ruled for the developers of a proposed 88-mile railroad in northeastern Utah which could carry crude oil that would be refined along the Gulf Coast.

In blocking the proposal, judges had cited its potential to spur more drilling for oil in Utah and more pollution along the Gulf Coast.

By Tina Teng

Published on
23/05/2025 – 8:14 GMT+2

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Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks. Traders are growing concerned about the possible return of oil supply from Iran, which holds around one-third of the world’s oil reserves.

Adding to the pressure, a Bloomberg report stated that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering a third consecutive production hike in July, compounding fears of an oversupplied market.

Oil prices continued to decline during Friday’s Asian session. As of 4:40 am CEST, Brent futures were down 0.59% to $64.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.6% to $60.83 per barrel—both touching their lowest levels in over a week.

Potential oversupply overshadows geopolitical tensions

Crude prices have experienced notable volatility in recent weeks as market participants weigh rising geopolitical tensions against mounting supply from major oil-producing nations. Broader macroeconomic factors—such as easing US-China trade tensions and renewed selling in US Treasuries—have also been influencing oil market movements.

Earlier in the week, prices briefly spiked following a CNN report that Israel was preparing to launch strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, citing intelligence from US sources. However, the rally proved short-lived, with analysts suggesting the warning may have been a strategic move by the US to exert pressure on Iran ahead of the nuclear negotiations.

The geopolitical boost was quickly overshadowed on Wednesday by data showing a surge in US crude inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil stockpiles rose to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending 16 May—the highest level since July 2024. The report also indicated that net US crude imports had increased for a third consecutive week, while domestic demand remained weaker than expected.

OPEC+ may accelerate production hike

News about OPEC+’s potential acceleration in production hike sent the oil price down further on Thursday. The oil production cartel is reportedly considering hiking crude output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The decision is yet to be finalised on 1 June when the group holds the next meeting.

The group, which accounts for around 40% of global oil supply, has jointly reduced production by approximately 2.2 million bpd in 2023. The quicker-than-expected phased rollback began with a 135,000 bpd increase in April, tripling to 411,000 bpd in May and June. The acceleration is seen as a punitive measure against members which failed to comply with agreed production quotas, with Kazakhstan and Iraq identified as recent overproducers.

Crude prices have consistently fallen following OPEC+ announcements of larger-than-expected production increases in both April and May. However, the potential July decision may already be priced in by markets—unless the group surprises traders with an even more aggressive supply boost.

Demand outlook remains weak

The demand outlook remains fragile amid ongoing concerns over slowing global growth, particularly driven by the US tariffs. Crude prices had previously dropped to a four-year low on 9 April and again on 5 May. The oil market rebounded following the US and China’s trade talks earlier this month, when the world’s two largest economies reached an agreement to pause high tariffs on each other for 90 days.

While near-term pressure remains supply-driven, there is cautious optimism that a sustained recovery in market sentiment, driven by further progress in US tariff negotiations, could support a rebound in oil demand.

“While the immediate pressure comes from the supply side, I believe that in the longer term, further progress on US tariff negotiations with key partners could revive demand and offer more meaningful support for oil,” Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Australia, said.