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The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

The Turkish Air Force looks set to receive a major boost to its fighter fleet, with the delivery of dozens of F110 engines required to power the homegrown TF Kaan combat jet. This would be one of the most significant positive developments in U.S.-Turkish defense relations since Turkey was ejected from the F-35 program in 2019, and may even pave the way for Ankara to rejoin that effort.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reports that President Donald Trump’s administration plans to go ahead with the engine sale, said to be worth more than $700 million, despite some resistance from Congress.

Reporter: Türkiye wants the F-110 jet engines, and they want their F-35 fighter jets. Are you going to Türkiye with a big gift bag?

Trump: I think so. He’s a member of NATO. Some people don’t consider himself, but he really is.

He is a strong member of NATO. Yeah, I’m going to… pic.twitter.com/O2Yda1Vs3n

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 24, 2026

Ahead of his July trip to a NATO summit in Turkey, Trump was asked by a reporter whether Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan would be provided with a “big gift” in the form of F110 engines and potentially F-35 fighter jets.

“He’s a member of NATO,” Trump replied. “He really is a strong member of NATO. Yeah, I’m going to probably do something that’s going to make him very happy.”

Speaking alongside Trump, Vice President JD Vance said a review was underway to see if Turkey could receive the F-35.

JD Vance on Türkiye’s F-35 jets:

Pete and the entire team are reviewing this right now, because there are certain things that we have to certify have happened — that have happened in order to comply with American law. The president has asked us to do that.

We’re running the… pic.twitter.com/FRgGk7ZPYG

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 24, 2026

“Pete and the entire team are reviewing this right now, because there are certain things that we have to certify have happened … in order to comply with American law,” Vance ⁠said, referring ​to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

The question of whether Turkey might receive F-35s has long been a fraught one, with Ankara kicked out of the program back in 2019, a development we will return to later.

For now, however, Turkey’s priority seems to be securing F110 engines.

Turkey’s TF Kaan next-generation fighter is a flagship program of the country’s burgeoning aerospace industry. The program was launched in 2010, and the first prototype took to the air in early 2024.

Reportedly, Turkey plans to complete three pre-production prototypes, to be followed by 250 series-production aircraft, incorporating various refinements.

Last month, a contract was reportedly signed for 20 examples of the initial Block 10 versions of the Kaan.

The twin-engine Kaan was developed with a reduced radar signature in mind, as well as a high level of performance and modern avionics and other systems. As a result, it doesn’t offer the same level of low observability as the F-35, while its sensor fusion, electronic warfare capabilities, and other ‘fifth-generation’ features lag behind the U.S.-designed jet.

Critically, the Kaan is powered by U.S.-supplied General Electric F110 turbofans.

F110s are assembled under license in Turkey by TUSAS Engine Industries (TEI) but are still governed by U.S. export restrictions. These engines are already used in significant numbers by the Turkish Air Force F-16 fleet, the third-largest in the world. Outside of the F-16, the F110 is also used in the F-15E Strike Eagle and F-15EX Eagle II, among other F-15 variants. An F110 comes with a typical flyaway unit cost of $10 to $15 million.

The Kaan program has long been overshadowed by the question of whether Washington will make available in larger numbers the F110 turbofans used in the prototype. Reportedly, an initial batch of 80 engines is required.

While Turkish officials have expressed hope of ultimately switching to a domestically produced engine type for the Kaan, TEI’s TF35000, it’s unclear how realistic this is, at least in the near term. Turkey has also looked at acquiring alternative engines, too, including those from Russia or Rolls-Royce in the United Kingdom.

In the meantime, the importance of the Kaan to the Turkish Air Force increased significantly in 2019, when it became clear that Ankara would be kicked out of the F-35 program, in which it had a considerable industrial stake, and a plan to buy around 100 of the fighters. Washington took that decision after Turkey refused to abandon its purchase of Russian-made S-400 long-range air defense systems.

As well as the S-400, U.S. lawmakers were unhappy with Turkey’s worsening relations with Greece, its other connections with Russia and Azerbaijan (which included the deployment of F-16s to the latter country), its conduct in the Syrian civil war, and human rights abuses. Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO also proved to be a significant hurdle.

In the wake of all this, the chances of Turkey receiving F110 engines were dramatically reduced. At the same time, Turkey’s request to buy additional F-16 fighters was also turned down. Turkey reportedly also began stockpiling spare parts for its F-16 back in 2019, fearing the effects of U.S. sanctions.

Toward the end of the Biden administration, U.S.-Turkish relations began to improve, and Washington moved to push through sales of new F-16s and upgrade kits for older jets to Turkey. There also began to be suggestions that the F-35 was potentially back on the table for Turkey.

Under the Trump administration, Washington’s relationship with Ankara has become closer, with Erdogan frequently praised by the U.S. leader.

In early 2024, the U.S. State Department finally approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of 40 new F-16C/D Block 70 fighters, plus the upgrade of 79 existing aircraft to F-16V configuration.

At the same time, the issue surrounding the S-400 and the sanctions that followed that acquisition remains.

As it stands, U.S. law does not permit Turkey to operate or possess the S-400 system if it wishes to rejoin the F-35 program, as a result of security concerns around the Russian-made system.

During a visit to Turkey in early 2024, the U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland reportedly suggested that the United States might be willing to offer Patriot air defense systems if it were to give up its S-400s, which could also clear the way to re-entering the F-35 program.

“Frankly, if we can resolve this S-400 issue, which we want to do, the United States would be pleased to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 family,” Nuland said. “But we must solve this other issue first, and while we solve it, we must also ensure that Turkey has a strong air defense.”

The apparent decision to clear the F110 sale certainly represents a further softening of Washington’s stance, and it could be a stepping-stone to Ankara eventually being readmitted to the F-35 program.

Turkey’s desire for F-35s has only been intensified by the fact that Greece, its major strategic rival, has been approved for a purchase of the jets. You can read all about how tensions between Greece and Turkey are reflected in the countries’ respective air forces in this previous feature.

Even regarding the F110 transfer, some opposition to defense sales to Turkey remains in Washington.

In particular, Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, the leading Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, has reportedly stood in the way of the engine sale during an informal review process.

However, according to the four sources who spoke to Reuters, the F110 deal should be “finalized in the coming days, followed by a formal notification from the State Department to Congress.”

While lawmakers can use the congressional review process to raise their concerns over big-ticket defense exports, the administration can override these.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is expected to override Meeks’ effort to block the engine deal.

For the Kaan program, the F110 is vital.

Denied the F-35 and with F-16 deals moving forward only slowly, Turkey has been forced to look elsewhere to meet its short-term fighter needs. Most significantly, it signed a deal for 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets last October.

Turkey has also been investing heavily in drones, including the ANKA-3, a low-observable flying wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), and the fighter-like Bayraktar Kizilelma. Still, these are viewed as adjuncts to advanced crewed fighters, like the Kaan.

Whether securing the F110 engines means the Kaan meets its target of service entry around the 2030 timeframe remains questionable.

However, it is a major step in that direction.

As well as being fielded by the Turkish Air Force, the Kaan could have significant potential for export, although sales would be governed by U.S. restrictions on its engines. It is one of a number of medium-weight fighters that feature low-observable characteristics and advanced avionics. These include China’s FC-31 and South Korea’s KF-21.

Reportedly, Indonesia already signed a contract for 48 Kaan fighters last June.

Perhaps most importantly, the F110 deal would get back on track what is very much the flagship of Turkey’s military aerospace industry. At the same time, a U.S. decision to provide Ankara with these engines will also be welcomed by those in Turkey who still wish for a way back into the F-35 program.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

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Iranian fans in Tehran watched their team secure a 0-0 draw against Belgium at the World Cup in Los Angeles, keeping hope alive for an unprecedented chance at the second round. Iran competes under strict US travel restrictions, which forced them to fly back to Mexico within hours of the draw, rather than remaining overnight for recovery.

June 20 (UPI) — A train driver is dead and nine people are still in critical condition after two passenger trains collided in England.

About 80 people were injured in the crash Friday evening. As of Saturday morning, 28 were still hospitalized after a moving train crashed into a stopped train on the tracks in Bedford, England, north of London.

The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers said it was “devastated to learn that a train driver and former RMT rep has tragically died,” The Times of London reported.

Eddie Dempsey, RMT general secretary, wrote on X: “The thoughts of RMT are with their family, friends, colleagues and the ASLEF trade union at this awful time.”

The trains collided in Bedford, one from Corby and the other from Nottingham en route to London St. Pancras.

One passenger told The Times that the scene was “carnage.”

“We had to walk through farmers’ fields to get to an A-road,” he said. “There is a huge emergency service presence and loads of air ambulances.”

Another unidentified passenger told the times that it looked like an explosion.

“The front carriage collided into the front of another one, and when I got up I saw all of the chairs everywhere and it felt like I’d been in a bomb explosion. When I got up I saw people with bloodied faces and people’s legs looked broken, and there was smoke everywhere,” the passenger said.

Passenger Pete Knapp added that he saw smoke in the cabin.

“There was a moment of being flung into the chair in front, and then I saw smoke. People were crying, screaming, people were so scared and confused,” Knapp said.

A helicopter arrived within about 5 or 10 minutes, he added. Emergency services had to cut through a hedge with shears to reach the area, and he said passengers were triaged into different groups based on their injuries.

“I was triaged by some paramedics and they said that I had a muscular damage to my back and the gouges on my shins, they hadn’t broken my legs so hopefully they will heal over time. I’m extremely grateful for that because so many people in that carriage I was in had their legs broken, and there was blood everywhere and people crying and screaming.”

More than 80 people received treatment after the crash and 28 remain in hospital.

At least nine people remain in critical condition after two passenger trains crashed into each other and killed one driver near Bedford, about 56 miles (90km) north of London.

British Transport Police said on Saturday that more than 80 people had received hospital treatment on Friday night after the trains collided.

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“As of this morning, 28 remain in hospital, and nine are in a critical condition,” Chief Constable Lucy D’Orsi said.

She added that “specialist investigators from British Transport Police are working with colleagues at the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) to gather the facts and determine what has happened”.

Moreover, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said that it was “too early to speculate” on the cause of the crash, and promised that “a thorough investigation … to ensure that lessons are learnt” would be launched.

Friday’s crash involved two London-bound trains on the same track, according to East Midlands Railway (EMR), which operates both services.

On Friday, police confirmed that the driver of one of the trains had died at the scene.

In a statement from Buckingham Palace, King Charles said he was “greatly saddened” by the incident and sent “his thoughts and sympathies” to the dead driver’s family and to those injured.

The East of England Ambulance Service said on Saturday that 11 people sustained “very serious” injuries, while a further 32 suffered serious wounds and 56 others had minor injuries.

EMR’s managing director, Will Rogers, also called the crash “a profoundly sad day for the railway community”.

“We are deeply saddened that our driver has tragically died, and a number of other people have suffered injuries,” he said, speaking at the scene alongside other officials.

He added that EMR was “fully supporting” the RAIB probe.

More than 20 ambulances, specialist hazardous area rescue teams and six air ambulances were dispatched to the scene of Friday’s crash.

While the investigation continues, officials have not said whether signalling issues played a role in the incident.

Leaders of the Group of Seven agreed to deepen cooperation on critical minerals and establish a new coordination platform aimed at reducing reliance on China for materials essential to defense, technology, electric vehicles, and renewable energy industries.

The move comes as Western economies seek to strengthen supply chain security following disruptions caused by Chinese export restrictions on rare earth related products and permanent magnets, which exposed the vulnerability of global industries dependent on a single dominant supplier.

New Targets for Supply Chain Diversification

The G7 outlined ambitious goals to reduce dependence on any single supplier outside the group and its partners. Leaders said they aim to lower reliance on one source for rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60 percent by 2030, with a longer term objective of reducing that figure to 50 percent as soon as possible.

Initial cooperation will focus on lithium and nickel, two minerals that play a crucial role in battery manufacturing and clean energy technologies. The framework is expected to expand gradually, adding several new minerals each year with particular attention on rare earth elements.

New Monitoring Platform and Investment Push

A central part of the initiative is the creation of a new platform that will coordinate policy responses, improve information sharing, and monitor potential supply disruptions.

The platform will work closely with the International Energy Agency, which will provide market analysis and early warnings about supply risks, shortages, and distortions.

G7 leaders also stressed the need for greater investment across the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to manufacturing and recycling. Development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and private investors are expected to play a larger role in funding strategic projects.

According to the summit statement, nearly 200 critical mineral projects have already been announced since the start of 2026, representing tens of billions of dollars in planned investment.

Economic Security Becomes a Strategic Priority

The initiative reflects a broader shift in Western economic policy, where critical minerals are increasingly viewed as a national security issue rather than simply a trade matter.

Rare earths, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other strategic minerals are essential for advanced military systems, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy infrastructure, and artificial intelligence technologies.

Spend

Western governments have become increasingly concerned that geopolitical tensions could disrupt access to these resources, creating economic and security vulnerabilities.

Analysis

The G7 initiative represents one of the most coordinated attempts yet by advanced economies to reduce strategic dependence on China. While the statement avoids directly confronting Beijing, the objectives clearly target vulnerabilities that became apparent after China’s export restrictions disrupted global industries.

The challenge, however, extends beyond mining. China has spent decades building dominance across processing, refining, manufacturing, and logistics networks. Replicating those capabilities will require sustained investment, government support, and international coordination over many years.

The inclusion of measures such as joint procurement, subsidies, quotas, and price support mechanisms suggests governments are increasingly willing to intervene in markets to secure strategic resources. This marks a significant departure from the free market approach that previously dominated global trade policy.

Success will depend on whether G7 members can maintain political unity and attract sufficient private investment. If implemented effectively, the alliance could gradually reshape global critical mineral supply chains and reduce China’s leverage over key industries. If not, Western economies may continue to face supply risks despite ambitious targets and large investment commitments.

What Comes Next

The G7 is expected to begin implementing pilot programs focused on lithium and nickel while expanding cooperation with allies such as Japan and the European Union. The United States is also expected to pursue new trade and supply agreements related to critical minerals in the coming months.

Attention will now shift to whether governments can translate commitments into operational projects, increase domestic processing capacity, and build alternative supply chains quickly enough to reduce dependence on China before future disruptions occur.

With information from Reuters.

Critical infrastructure, such as water utilities, energy grids, healthcare systems, manufacturing plants, education platforms, and transport networks, have become primary targets of ransomware groups. In late April and early May 2026, for instance, Shinyhunters, a hacking group, breached Instructure, an education platform used by K-12 schools and universities across the US, and claimed for ransom. In the report published on CNN, the hacker group said it had breached 275 million personal data and had access to billions of private messages, an action that has affected thousands of schools, causing learning disruptions. Cybercriminals target critical infrastructure because downtime means communities don’t get access to essential services. So, operators or service providers have no option but to pay ransom to restore services quickly. Security gaps also influence the growth of these attacks. Too often, organizations focus on recovery efforts and ransomware encryption instead of prevention. This post highlights ways to prevent ransomware at its early stages, including the use of zero trust architecture and AI.

Promote Cybersecurity Awareness

Ransomware incidents start with malicious malware being injected into tech infrastructure. It then encrypts data and systems, restricting organizations any access to their operations until a ransom is paid. For these attacks to be successful, however, threat actors rely on social engineering attacks like spoofing and phishing, which target employees. An attacker will send a phishing email, impersonating an executive or trusted source like a bank to trick the victim into sharing credentials. Today’s spam emails, especially those generated by AI, are flawless, meaning staff can easily open and click on malware links without suspecting any threat. So, it’s crucial that employees receive adequate training on how to spot and respond to phishing texts or emails and malicious links.

Workers should also know how to generate hard-to-hack passwords. Weak passwords or using the same password for multiple accounts creates an entry point for ransomware. Encourage the use of password phrases, which are a string of unrelated, random words, symbols and numbers. For example, a password like purplegiraffesingstomorrow@17 prevents brute-force logins because a hacker will have a hard time guessing. Alongside passphrases, emphasize the importance of multi-factor authentication, where staff use two or multiple authentication methods to gain permission to accounts. 

Enhance Threat Detection and Monitoring Systems

Detecting ransomware at its early stages helps prevent full encryption of sensitive data and infrastructure. And it entails identifying subtle behaviors of the threat, such as lateral movement across networks and devices, data exfiltration, and privilege escalation. Look out for unusual login or data access, increases in CPU usage, and abnormal network traffic to command-control servers. Modern attacks powered by AI and machine learning bypass legacy security systems by using legit utilities like PowerShell scripts and MimiKatz. So, check if there are attempts by script-based systems like PowerShell to inject suspicious code into running processes. Also, inspect if endpoints and firewalls are still running. Attackers often switch them off or configure settings without authorization to create a weak point for malware injection. 

Note: lateral movement and zero-day variants aren’t always easy to spot. You need to integrate multiple security tools to detect and mitigate attacks. Use endpoint detection and response tools to catch harmful scripts and abnormal file access before all your data is encrypted. Take advantage of AI-assisted behavioral analytics to learn data access patterns, set a baseline for normal user behavior, and send alerts when there’s unusual or irregular file access patterns to protect against infostealers. Since infostealers act as the initial access for attack vectors, stopping them eliminates the entire kill chain. You can also reinforce your security measures by working with a 24/7 AI-centric SOC. These security experts don’t just distinguish legitimate logins from malware injections. They isolate the host to stop further compromise.

Network Segmentation and Zero Trust Framework

The goal of these two security measures is to limit a hacker’s ability to infect an entire network. Segmenting your networks entails dividing your networks into smaller, isolated sub-networks that make it difficult for cybercriminals to navigate critical network infrastructure. In a situation where a device is compromised, segmentation locks the attack within the specific zone, ensuring it doesn’t access databases or other sub-networks. What does zero trust entail and how does it mitigate ransomware? This tactic works on one strict principle: ‘never trust, always verify’. It doesn’t matter if you’re an authorized user or the devices you’re using are inside the organization. With zero trust in place, every access request is authenticated continuously. Also, users are granted permission to data and tools based on their roles to minimize privilege. Even if an attacker stole credentials, they would be limited to access systems. When combined, zero trust architecture and network segmentation strengthen an organization’s cyber safety strategies.

Hackers know that when they infect essential infrastructure with ransomware, victims will act fast to settle the ransom required to get encryption keys. But service providers shouldn’t wait until an attack has occurred to secure infrastructures. Prevention is the most effective strategy, and it revolves around simple hacks like educating workers about common threats and using strong pass phrases alongside MFA. By detecting threats, implementing zero trust, and network segmentation, organizations can minimize ransomware-related risks.

Department reports raise concerns about increased espionage activity amid US-Israeli war with Iran, ceasefire talks.

The Pentagon’s intelligence arm has raised the assessed threat level on Israeli spying from “high” to “critical” in recent weeks, according to US media.

NBC News first broke news of the change on Friday, with The New York Times issuing its own report the following day.

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The news outlets cited anonymous sources as saying the switch came in light of concerns over increasingly aggressive tactics related to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

They said the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) had raised the alert level amid fears that Israel is increasingly attempting to surveil top US officials. The aim is allegedly to understand internal White House deliberations about ending the war.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have publicly diverged in their approach to the war, which the US and Israel started on February 28.

Trump, on one hand, has repeatedly said he wants to bring the war to a close, amid mounting political pressure at home.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has called for war to resume, despite an April 8 ceasefire. The fighting has been mostly paused since the temporary truce was announced, but efforts to reach a lasting agreement have repeatedly stalled.

The New York Times reported that, while Israel has been known to spy on the US, the DIA cited an uptick in activities beginning in late 2024, as the administration of US President Joe Biden increased pressure on Israel over its genocidal war in Gaza.

That increase continued into 2025, as Trump returned to the presidency and began deliberating about how to approach Iran.

The newspaper added that other recent intelligence assessments have also documented evidence that there are Israeli efforts to monitor Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff as well as Elbridge Colby, a top policy official at the Pentagon, and his deputy Michael DiMino IV.

Witkoff had been the lead negotiator in nuclear talks that preceded the initial US-Israeli attack on Iran in February.

Both NBC News and The New York Times cited unnamed US officials in their reports. The US Department of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Al Jazeera.

However, an unnamed spokesperson told both news organisations that the reports were “false”.

Still, the reported concerns are likely to raise questions over the close intelligence and military coordination between Israel and the US.

Washington has, for years, provided billions in military aid and weapons sales to Israel, including throughout the genocide in Gaza.

The US Congress is also currently debating a section of a new defence bill, which would integrate the two countries’ research and development for weaponry to an unprecedented degree.

While the US and its allies are known to regularly conduct intelligence operations on each other, officials told both NBC and The New York Times that Israel’s recent vigour was unique.

The New York Times reported that the increased DIA designation surpasses all current allies, as well as a handful of countries with more fraught relations.

Recent incidents included Israel’s military intelligence trying to plant listening devices at the DIA headquarters in 2021, according to the newspaper.

In 2025, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, Shin Bet, was found to have tried to plant a similar device in a Secret Service vehicle, the report said.

Western governments are pouring tens of billions of dollars into critical minerals projects as they attempt to reduce dependence on China for materials essential to clean energy, defence technology and advanced manufacturing.

But industry executives, analysts and investors are increasingly warning that poorly coordinated state-backed investment could create severe oversupply problems similar to past commodity booms that ended in market crashes.

The concerns come as countries including the United States, Australia, European Union and Japan accelerate efforts to build strategic reserves and expand production of rare earths and other critical minerals.

Governments Ramp Up Critical Minerals Spending

The United States has committed more than $20 billion toward critical minerals development through multiple financing programmes, including Project Vault, a strategic stockpiling initiative worth around $10 billion.

Australia has also allocated at least A$13 billion to support critical minerals projects and reserves through several government-backed programmes.

These investments are designed to secure supplies of metals used in electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy systems, aerospace equipment and military technologies.

Particular attention has focused on rare earth elements, a group of 17 metals essential for producing powerful magnets used in advanced defence systems and high-tech manufacturing.

Although the global rare earths market was valued at only about $6.4 billion in 2024, combined Western financial commitments to rare earth projects have already exceeded that figure.

Fears Grow Over Potential Oversupply

Mining executives and analysts warn that aggressive subsidies and overlapping national strategies could eventually flood global markets with excess supply.

Brett Beatty of Resource Capital Funds said the biggest danger lies in governments pursuing independent strategies without coordination.

According to Beatty, simultaneous efforts to rapidly increase production could create volumes far beyond global demand, ultimately crushing prices and undermining the very industries governments are trying to build.

Analysts drew comparisons to historical commodity gluts, including Europe’s “butter mountains” of the 1980s, Russian aluminium oversupply and Australia’s wool crisis, where subsidies and state support distorted markets and triggered sharp price collapses.

Rare Earth Market Could Face Surplus Pressures

Consultancy Project Blue warned that several rare earth markets are already on track to move into surplus over the coming years due to expanding state-backed production.

However, analyst David Merriman said governments may still be able to avoid major imbalances if they carefully adjust subsidies, stockpiling programmes and guaranteed purchasing arrangements.

Industry leaders say current stockpiles remain relatively small, limiting immediate risks of market disruption.

Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze recently said rare earth stockpiles around the world remain modest and are not yet large enough to destabilise markets.

Australian Resources Minister Madeleine King also argued that today’s critical minerals policies differ significantly from past commodity intervention failures because they are more targeted and linked to long-term industrial supply chains.

Global Coordination Emerging Among Western Allies

Concerns about duplication and oversupply are pushing Western governments toward greater policy coordination.

The Group of Seven is reportedly discussing the creation of a permanent secretariat focused on coordinating critical mineral strategies and ensuring continuity between rotating national presidencies.

Industry experts say such coordination could help prevent destructive competition between allied nations while supporting more stable investment planning.

Lessons From Congo and Indonesia

Governments outside the West have already experimented with aggressive intervention in mineral markets.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo boosted cobalt prices by introducing export quotas and stockpiling measures designed to increase mining revenues.

While the policy initially lifted prices, analysts warn prolonged restrictions could encourage manufacturers to seek alternative materials or suppliers.

Similarly, Indonesia dramatically expanded its dominance in nickel production after banning exports of raw nickel ore in 2020 to force domestic processing investment.

Indonesia’s production surged within just a few years, but authorities have since struggled with falling prices and oversupply, forcing Jakarta to tighten mining quotas and centralise export controls.

These examples highlight the difficulty governments face in balancing national industrial ambitions with long-term market stability.

Analysis

The global race for critical minerals is increasingly becoming a strategic contest shaped as much by geopolitics as by economics.

Western governments view supply chain independence as essential after years of relying heavily on China for processing capacity and rare earth production. The push is not simply about commercial competition — it is tied directly to national security, technological leadership and energy transition goals.

However, the very scale of state intervention now unfolding raises the risk of creating distorted markets. If multiple governments simultaneously subsidise production, guarantee prices and build stockpiles without coordination, supply could rapidly outpace actual industrial demand.

That scenario would likely trigger sharp price declines, weaken private investment and potentially create another boom-and-bust cycle in the mining sector.

At the same time, the market dynamics of critical minerals differ from traditional commodities. Many of these materials are essential for emerging technologies, and demand is expected to rise significantly over the next two decades as countries expand renewable energy infrastructure, battery production and semiconductor manufacturing.

This means governments are not only competing to secure supply today but also positioning themselves for future industrial dominance.

Another key challenge is that refining and processing capabilities remain heavily concentrated in China. Even if Western countries succeed in expanding mining output, they may still depend on Chinese infrastructure unless domestic processing networks are developed alongside extraction projects.

The growing emphasis on “friend-shoring” and allied supply chains reflects an attempt to address this vulnerability.

Industry experts also point to a more sustainable model emerging through byproduct extraction. Instead of building entirely new mines based purely on high prices, companies are increasingly looking to recover critical minerals from existing industrial operations, reducing the risk of uncontrolled supply growth.

Projects involving Alcoa, Sojitz and Trafigura illustrate how governments and corporations are experimenting with lower-risk approaches to expanding supply.

Ultimately, the success of Western critical minerals strategies may depend less on how much money governments spend and more on whether they can coordinate policies, manage supply carefully and build integrated processing ecosystems capable of competing with China over the long term.

With information from Reuters.

May 14, 2026, 2:13 PM ETMobix Labs, Inc. (MOBX) Stock, MOBXW StockORCL, CSCO, NVDA, TSM, UUUU, ANET, LYSCF, AVGO, UUUU.WS, SP500, MP, USAR, NVDA:CA, CSCO:CA, ORCL:CA, ANET:CABy: Sara Sethiya, SA News Editor

HARARE, Zimbabwe — Zambia is accusing the United States of tying a $2-billion deal for critical health assistance to access to the southern African nation’s rich mineral assets, and calling the outgoing U.S. ambassador’s allegations of corruption “mischievous” and “undiplomatic.”

The comments by Zambia’s foreign affairs minister, Mulambo Haimbe, on Monday brought into the open simmering tensions over President Trump’s “America First” strategy, which is reshaping aid to Africa into transactional agreements.

Some African leaders and health experts have criticized the new U.S. stance and its demands for sensitive health data in exchange for badly needed support for health systems strained by the Trump administration’s dismantling of foreign aid. Some say they would not receive access to health innovations like vaccines in return.

The U.S. is also seeking to challenge China, a dominant player in Zambia and much of Africa, whose minerals are critical to the green energy transition, including inputs for solar panels, electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems.

Zambia says talks stalled over data-sharing demands

In a statement, Haimbe described the accusations of Zambian graft and negotiation inertia by outgoing U.S. ambassador Michael Gonzales as “mischievous” and “deeply regrettable, undiplomatic and inconsistent with the spirit of mutual respect.”

Haimbe also accused the U.S. of tying access to critical minerals to the conclusion of the health deal, which Gonzales earlier dismissed as “alarmist allegations” that he called “disgusting” and “absolutely and patently false.”

Negotiations have continued for months to conclude the deal, one of dozens the Trump administration is pursuing in some of the world’s most aid-dependent countries.

Gonzales in late April said Zambian leaders had “abdicated their responsibilities, letting the United States pay for healthcare while officials diverted government funds to their own pockets.” He said Zambian authorities had “ignored” U.S. overtures to conclude a new deal.

But Haimbe said negotiations had stalled over “unacceptable” data-sharing demands “in violation of our citizens’ right to privacy” and “the insistence on preferential treatment of U.S companies over Zambia’s critical minerals.”

Zambia “takes the view, first and foremost, that Zambians must have a say on how her critical minerals are used, and second that no one strategic partner is to be treated preferentially to others,” he said.

The U.S. Embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

U.S. says its approach aims to reduce donor dependency

The U.S. approach replaces decades of engagement anchored in the now-dismantled United States Agency for International Development and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR.

In their place, U.S. officials are negotiating country-by-country agreements that recast aid as a transaction, tying funding to conditions including commercial provisions, domestic financing commitments, disease surveillance, pathogen sharing and even religion.

Since late last year, the U.S. has signed agreements with about 30 countries, many in Africa. Washington says the approach is meant to reduce donor dependency, promote local ownership and safeguard American interests, including against an aggressive China that dominates trade in Africa but contributes less aid.

There has been pushback.

Ghana last week said it had rejected a proposed deal over provisions granting broad access to sensitive health data without safeguards. Zimbabwe walked away from a $367-million package over similar concerns. In Kenya, a $2.5- billion agreement signed in December has been put on hold after a court challenge arguing it violates data protection laws.

In Lesotho, draft U.S. proposals sought 25 years of access to health data and biological samples before local officials secured a shorter five-year deal.

Health experts say data would largely flow one way

Critics say the data-sharing demands tilt toward U.S. interests and warn the information-sharing would largely go in just one direction: toward Washington.

The new agreements aim to ensure the flow of disease surveillance data and biological samples, but through bilateral channels, after the U.S withdrew from the World Health Organization in January, said Asia Russell, executive director of advocacy group Health GAP.

Countries currently report disease outbreaks primarily through the WHO, which coordinates responses and is negotiating new frameworks on pathogen-sharing and equitable access to vaccines.

The U.S., now outside those talks, is pursuing direct access instead.

“[The U.S. wants] to understand what’s actually happening,” said Jen Kates, a senior vice president at the Washington-based nonprofit KFF. “But they are trying to do it in a very different way.”

Health advocates say this risks creating a parallel global health system. In Zimbabwe, a government spokesperson in February said the government terminated negotiations because the U.S. was not offering a “corresponding guarantee of access to any medical innovations — such as vaccines, diagnostics or treatments — that might result from that shared data.”

“That raises serious concerns about who benefits,” said Atilla Kisla of the Southern Africa Litigation Center.

Advocates point to the harsh experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, when African countries contributed data and samples but were largely last in line for vaccines.

Experts warn against health as a ‘bargaining chip’

The agreements with the U.S. are drawing criticism for closed-door negotiations and limited public scrutiny.

“Secrecy is at the center of this. That puts accountability for results at risk,” said Health GAP’s Russell. “It’s impossible to evaluate these deals properly without seeing the full terms. Part of what made PEPFAR successful was transparency. Now that’s been taken away.”

The deals also come with tighter financial conditions. Many include reduced funding compared to previous levels of U.S. assistance, while requiring countries to increase domestic health spending, with aid at risk if targets are not met.

“These are going to be very heavy lifts,” said KFF’s Kates. “Countries are already under strain.”

Critics say some agreements also advance U.S. commercial and political interests, blurring the line between aid and transactional diplomacy.

“When health becomes a bargaining chip, everyone becomes less safe,” Russell warned.

Mutsaka and Imray write for the Associated Press. Keketso Phakela in Maseru, Lesotho, contributed to this report.

1 of 3 | Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is interviewed on the floor of the 2024 Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wis., on July 16, 2024. Giuliani has been hospitalized in critical condition, his spokesman said Sunday. File Photo by Tannen Maury/UPI | License Photo

May 3 (UPI) — Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been hospitalized and is in critical condition, his spokesman said Sunday.

Giuliani “is currently in the hospital, where he remains in critical but stable condition,” Ted Goodman said in a statement.

“Mayor Giuliani is a fighter who has faced every challenge in his life with unwavering strength, and he’s fighting with that same strength now. We do ask that you join us in prayer for America’s Mayor Rudy Giuliani.”

Goodman did not say why Giuliani, 81, was hospitalized.

The former mayor’s condition was also noted by President Donald Trump, who wrote on his Truth Social platform, “True Warrior, and the Best Mayor in the History of New York City, BY FAR.”

Trump also took the occasion to praise his political ally and former lawyer, who served as one of the key figures in the president’s baseless campaign attacking the results of his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden as “rigged.”

“They cheated on the Elections, fabricated hundreds of stories, did anything possible to destroy our Nation, and now, look at Rudy. So sad!” Trump wrote.

Trump in November pardoned Giuliani and 76 others tied to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, including participation in what has become known as the fake electors scheme. The strategy involved the creation of false slates of pro-Trump electors in every battleground state that he lost to Biden, including Georgia.

The former mayor’s championing of Trump’s claims also resulted in his own financial troubles.

In September, he reached a confidential settlement with Dominion Voting Systems, which had filed a $1.3 billion defamation lawsuit against him for his allegations the company rigged the 2020 presidential election.

Giuliani was previously disbarred as a lawyer in New York and Washington, D.C.

April 25 (UPI) — Two police officers were wounded in a shooting Saturday at a Chicago hospital, leaving one of them in critical condition, officials said.

The two officers were shot at Endeavor Health Swedish Hospital on the north side of Chicago at around 11 a.m., the hospital’s parent company said on Facebook. Endeavor said the shooter was brought to the Emergency Department for treatment around 9 a.m. CDT Saturday in the custody of the officers. He was wanded and escorted by the officers at all times, Endeavor said. At around 11 a.m. he shot the officers and left the building. He was caught and is in police custody.

Law enforcement sources told the Chicago Sun Times that the shooter disarmed one of the officers before opening fire.

No patients or hospital staff were injured.

“The safety of our patients and team members remains our top priority,” Endeavor said. “We are cooperating with law enforcement during their investigation and our deepest compassion remains with the officers and their families.”

The condition of the other officer isn’t clear.

The hospital was locked down Saturday afternoon, but there is no ongoing threat.