credit

Morgan Stanley warns Oracle credit protection nearing record high

A gauge of risk on Oracle Corp.’s debt reached a three-year high in November, and things are only going to get worse in 2026 unless the database giant is able to assuage investor anxiety about a massive artificial intelligence spending spree, according to Morgan Stanley.

A funding gap, swelling balance sheet and obsolescence risk are just some of the hazards Oracle is facing, according to Lindsay Tyler and David Hamburger, credit analysts at the brokerage. The cost of insuring Oracle Corp.’s debt against default over the next five years rose to 1.25 percentage point a year on Tuesday, according to ICE Data Services.

The price on the five-year credit default swaps is at risk of toppling a record set in 2008 as concerns over the company’s borrowing binge to finance its AI ambitions continue to spur heavy hedging by banks and investors, they warned in a note Wednesday.

The CDS could break through 1.5 percentage point in the near term and could approach 2 percentage points if communication around its financing strategy remains limited as the new year progresses, the analysts wrote. Oracle CDS hit a record 1.98 percentage point in 2008, ICE Data Services shows.

A representative for Oracle declined to comment.

Oracle is among firms taking part in an artificial intelligence spending race, which has quickly made the data center giant the credit market’s barometer for AI risk. The company borrowed $18 billion in the US high-grade market in September. Then in early November, a group of about 20 banks arranged a roughly $18 billion project finance loan to construct a data center campus in New Mexico, which Oracle will take over as tenant.

Banks are also providing a separate $38 billion loan package to help finance the construction of data centers in Texas and Wisconsin developed by Vantage Data Centers, Bloomberg reported last month. Lenders involved in these construction loans linked to Oracle are likely a key driver of the surge in trading volume on the Oracle’s CDS recently, a trend that may persist, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Over the past two months, it has become more apparent that reported construction loans in the works, for sites where Oracle is the future tenant, may be an even greater driver of hedging of late and going forward,” wrote the analysts.

There is a risk that some hedges by banks could unwind if and when banks distribute these loans to other parties, they wrote. Still, other parties may also hedge at some point even if down the road plus the construction debt funding needs don’t stop after the Vantage sites and the New Mexico site.

Last month, the analysts said they expect near-term credit deterioration and uncertainty to drive further hedging by bondholders, lenders and thematic players.

“The bondholder hedging dynamic and also the thematic hedging dynamic could both grow in importance down the road,” they added.

Oracle CDS have underperformed the broader investment-grade CDX index and Oracle corporate bonds have underperformed the Bloomberg high-grade index amid the jump in hedging demand and the weakening sentiment. Concerns have also started to weigh on Oracle’s stock, which the analysts said may incentivize management to outline a financing plan on the upcoming earnings call, including details on Stargate, data centers and capital spending.

The analysts had previously been recommending investors buy Oracle bonds and CDS in what is known as a basis trade, to profit from their expectation that credit derivatives would widen more than the bonds. Now they’re saying it’s a cleaner trade to just buy the CDS outright.

“Therefore, we are closing the ‘buy bond’ part of the basis trade, and keeping the ‘buy CDS protection’ leg of it,” they wrote. “We think a trade in CDS outright is cleaner right now and will result in a greater spread move.”

Larry Ellison, Oracle’s chairman of the board, is backing his son David Ellison’s bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery, which is also considering offers from Netflix and Comcast.

Mutua writes for Bloomberg.

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Final Budget Bills Stall as Senate Tries to Alter Measures : Finances: The holdup involves suspension of the renters tax credit. A new tax on tobacco that would strip local governments of ability to regulate smoking is also under consideration.

The final pieces of a multi-bill legislative package needed to implement a $52.1-billion state budget stalled in the state Senate on Monday as lawmakers made last-minute efforts to change or derail several measures.

The major issues still on the table include a proposed suspension of the renters tax credit and legislation to allow local governments to implement cheaper retirement plans for their workers.

The Senate shut down late Monday afternoon without taking major action. Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Van Nuys) said members would return at noon today, and “we will go until all business is completed, exhausted or until all hope is dead.”

In one late maneuver that was outside the framework of the bipartisan budget agreement, a proposal was emerging to give local governments the proceeds of a new statewide tax on tobacco while stripping them of much of their authority to regulate smoking.

Gov. Pete Wilson was awaiting passage of the package to which he had agreed last week with Democratic and Republican leaders of the Assembly and Senate. The new fiscal year begins Thursday.

“The governor will sign the budget as soon as he has the entire package on his desk,” said Dan Schnur, Wilson’s chief spokesman. “Every piece of the budget package is critical. You take out one piece and the package doesn’t fit together anymore.”

There was disagreement, however, over just what constituted the agreed-upon package.

Wilson Administration officials have said all five members of the leadership group agreed to suspend the renters tax credit for two years. The Assembly passed a bill to do that last week.

But the legislation has hit a snag in the Senate, where Roberti insists that the deal included an agreement to place a measure on the ballot next year that, if approved by the voters, would embed the renters credit in the state Constitution. Such a move would make it impossible for the Legislature to tamper with it again.

Roberti and Wilson appeared to be on the verge of a compromise late Monday, although it was not clear if there was sufficient support in the Legislature. The new deal would put the issue to the voters, as Roberti wants, but would reinstate the $60 credit only for tenants who have a state tax obligation. The credit now goes–in the form of a refund–even to renters who pay no taxes.

Senate Democrats also appeared to be dragging their feet on the local government retirement issue. That bill, passed by the Assembly, would allow local governments to implement pension options for new employees that would save the governments money over time.

In holding up the bill, which is opposed by organized labor, Democrats appeared to be gambling that Wilson would look the other way because the measure produces no immediate savings to any level of government. But Schnur said the governor would not give up any piece of the package, no matter how minor.

“Even if the specific legislation doesn’t have direct fiscal impact, it is still the part of an overall agreement,” Schnur said. “We want to get this signed before midnight Wednesday. But we need the whole package in place before he can sign it.”

Schnur said the retirement bill, and another measure pending to allow counties to reduce general assistance welfare payments by as much as 27%, helped provide the rationale for the governor’s proposed shift of $2.6 billion in property tax revenue from local government to schools.

The so-called mandate relief, he said, was intended to give counties more control of their shrinking budgets.

The tobacco tax proposal floated Monday, although not part of the package, would address the same issue.

Local government reportedly could realize about $300 million annually through the 15-cent per pack tax. But in return, they would have to agree to strict limits on their ability to control smoking, perhaps leading to a state-imposed repeal of anti-smoking ordinances in place.

Several sources said Monday that the proposal had the tacit support of the tobacco industry and of Los Angeles County, which would stand to gain several millions dollars.

Sen. Charles M. Calderon (D-Whittier) confirmed that he was pushing the tobacco tax legislation. He said it made sense to restrict local government’s regulatory powers at the same time–a goal long sought by the tobacco industry.

“If we’re going to dedicate a revenue source, we have to make sure that the locals cannot circumvent or cut down the revenue source by continuing to impact the sales of cigarettes,” Calderon said.

But anti-smoking activists were out to kill the plan before it could even become an official proposal.

“Everybody wants to do something for (Los Angeles) County, but not under these conditions,” said Sen. Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles). “This is the most dishonest, diabolical scheme. It’s the worst kind of politics.”

Times staff writer Dan Morain contributed to this report.

State Budget Watch

Less than three days before the end of the fiscal year, these were the key developments in Sacramento:

THE PROBLEM: The state will end the year with a $2.7-billion deficit and faces a $9-billion gap between anticipated tax revenues and the amount needed to pay off the deficit and provide all state services at the current levels for another 12 months.

THE LEGISLATURE: Final legislative approval of the last handful of bills to complete the 1993-94 state budget was making no progress by late afternoon. The Senate met in the morning but recessed without voting on four budget bills, the stickiest of which would suspend the renters tax credit for two years.

GOV. PETE WILSON: Wilson was holding fast to his vow not to sign a new budget until all companion measures are passed by the Legislature.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS: Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Van Nuys) was one of those holding up his approval of legislation reducing the renters tax credit. He was seeking as a condition assurances in the form of a proposed constitutional amendment, to be considered by voters, that the credit would be protected and fully funded in future years.

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Private Credit: 5 Key FAQs

Private credit has grown into a major force in corporate finance, serving as an alternative to traditional banks.

From senior, cash-flow-based direct lending to mezzanine, venture, distressed, and asset-based finance, proponents argue that these more tailored solutions give companies flexibility, speed, and confidentiality. This means that, while banks face strict oversight, private credit funds remain lightly regulated. As a result, critics continue to highlight systemic risks and the lack of investor protection.

Global Finance has created a five-part FAQ section that aims to answer some key questions about private credit: who uses private credit, how it has grown, what financing solutions it offers, where the capital originates, and how regulators are responding to its rapid growth and growing interconnectedness with traditional banks.

What is Private Credit and Who Uses It?

How has private credit grown in importance since the Great Financial Crisis? What is the current market size in the US and other regions?

How Private Credit Fills The Financing Gap For Corporates?

How does private credit meet various financing needs for companies that often can’t access the syndicated loan market?

Who Provides The Capital Behind The Private Credit Boom?

Which investors supply the majority of the capital for private credit?

Why Banks And Private Equity Firms Are Both Competing And Collaborating In Private Credit?

Why are banks both increasingly cooperating and competing with PE firms in providing private credit?

Regulators Private Credit

Why Regulators Are Watching Banks’ Growing Exposure To Private Credit?

Why are banks both increasingly cooperating and competing with PE firms in providing private credit?

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17 TV projects, including ‘Baywatch’ reboot, get a California film tax credit

More than a dozen TV shows were awarded production incentives for filming in California, including several that are relocating from other states, such as action series “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” and a reboot of “Baywatch.”

Together, the 17 series are expected to generate $1.2 billion in economic activity for the state. The shows are estimated to employ a collective 5,165 cast and crew members, as well as more than 35,000 background actors.

In total, the shows were awarded about $313 million in tax credits, with season 3 of the post-apocalyptic series “Fallout” receiving the largest credit ($166 million). “Baywatch,” which relocated from Hawaii, was awarded a credit of $21 million, while “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” returning from New York and Italy, was allocated nearly $80 million. The Netflix show “Forever” got nearly $63 million.

These shows are the second round of TV projects to receive incentive awards under the state’s revamped film and television tax credit program. Approved by state legislators and signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier this year, the new program now has a cap of $750 million, up from $330 million.

Eligibility criteria was also expanded to allow more types of shows to apply.

The changes to the program came after intense lobbying from Hollywood unions, studios and other insiders amid an exodus of filming to other states and countries with more generous production incentives.

“California’s creative economy isn’t just part of who we are — it helps power this state forward,” Newsom said in a statement. “And when we make smart investments like our film tax credit, we’re keeping talent here at home, supporting good-paying union jobs, and strengthening an industry that defines the California brand.”

“Baywatch” executive producer and showrunner Matt Nix noted that the wildfires in January encouraged him to want to film in the Golden State. He said in a statement that the fires nearly destroyed his home, but that the “heroism of the first responders who fought to save our community” inspired him.

“Baywatch was born in Los Angeles,” Nix said. “I’m so glad we can bring it home again.”

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Why Regulators Are Watching Banks’ Exposure To Private Credit?

Home Private Credit Why Regulators Are Watching Banks’ Growing Exposure To Private Credit?

What is the current state or regulation of the sector worldwide? Why are bank regulators worried about banks’ increasing involvement in private credit?

As connections between regulated banks and lightly regulated private credit funds grow, regulators become increasingly worried about the potential risks these links might pose to the global financial system. However, the International Monetary Fund warned regulators in April 2024 that private credit presents risks that they might not fully understand. While banks are carefully monitored by regulatory agencies worldwide, credit funds are subject to much less scrutiny, and their activities remain largely hidden from banks overseers.

As a result, the IMF urges authorities to adopt a more proactive supervisory and regulatory approach to this rapidly growing, interconnected asset class. Although its report notes that regulation and supervision of private funds were significantly strengthened after the global financial crisis, the IMF stated that the rapid growth and structural shift toward private credit require countries to conduct a further comprehensive review of regulatory requirements and supervisory practices, especially as the private credit market or exposures to private credit become substantial.

The IMF report noted that several jurisdictions have already taken steps to improve their regulatory frameworks to better address potential systemic risks and investor protection challenges. Specifically, the report highlighted that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is making significant efforts to strengthen regulatory requirements for private funds, including improving their reporting standards. 

The IMF also noted in its report that the European Union has recently amended the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD II) to include improved reporting, risk management, and liquidity risk management. It also states that AIFMD II has specific additional requirements for managers of loan origination funds concerning leverage limits (175% for open-end and 300% for closed-end funds) and design preferences, such as favoring closed-end structures and imposing extra requirements on open-end funds. 

The fund further noted that regulatory authorities in other countries, including China, India, and the United Kingdom, have also strengthened the regulation and oversight of private funds. With the overall growth of the private funds sector, the IMF noted, supervisors have intensified their scrutiny of various aspects of private funds, particularly conflicts of interest, conduct, valuation, and disclosures. The Bank of England (BoE) has, for its part, instructed banks to strengthen their risk management practices regarding private credit. In a letter to certain institutions, the BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority stated that its review of their practices had “identified a number of thematic gaps in banks’ overarching risk management frameworks that control their aggregate PE sector-related exposures.”

To address data gaps and enable accurate, comprehensive, and timely monitoring of emerging risks, the IMF recommended that relevant authorities improve their reporting requirements and supervisory cooperation on both cross-sectoral and cross-border levels. “Although the private nature of private credit remains crucial to market functioning,” the IMF report said, “regulators need access to appropriate data to understand potential vulnerabilities and spillovers to other asset classes or systemic institutions.” 

As the IMF put it, “there are cross-border and cross-sectoral risks. Relevant regulators and supervisors should coordinate to address data gaps and enhance their reporting requirements to monitor emerging risks.”

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