COVID19

Published on
10/07/2026 – 13:58 GMT+2

Global oil demand will fall by one million barrels a day in 2026, the IEA said on Friday, making it the first annual contraction since 2020, when Covid lockdowns grounded aviation and shuttered industry.

The comparison flatters this year’s decline in one respect, since demand collapsed by around eight million barrels a day at the height of the pandemic, but it underlines how severely the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has damaged the global economy.

The contraction is “highly skewed in both product and regional terms”, the agency noted in its monthly report.

Earlier IEA analysis traced the sharpest losses to Asia’s import-dependent economies and to petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas, whose supply chains run through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of writing, the front month contract on Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading at around $76 a barrel, roughly 6% higher than before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, and far below the peaks near $120 reached in March at the height of the conflict.

The US benchmark, WTI, was trading lower at around $72 a barrel.

June’s fragile rebound

Supply improved sharply last month, if from a desperately low base.

Global production jumped by 4.1 million barrels a day in June to 98.8 million as the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz allowed Gulf producers to restart shut-in wells, though output was still running 9.4 million barrels a day beneath its pre-war level.

Gulf exports, counting cargoes rerouted around the strait, climbed by 6.5 million barrels a day to 16.1 million. Before the fighting began in late February, the region shipped an average of 24 million barrels.

Global oil inventories grew for the first time since US and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited the conflict, halting months of record drawdowns, although stockpiles in the wealthiest economies shrank further as buyers held back from importing.

The truce unravels

The IEA’s forecasts rest on an assumption now under visible strain which is that a ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.

On that basis, global supply would contract by 3.7 million barrels a day this year, leaving production 860,000 barrels a day short of demand, before expanding by 7.5 million next year and tipping the market into surplus.

Stronger output elsewhere and weaker demand than expected before the war could still restore a surplus by the end of the year, allowing countries to rebuild depleted reserves, the IEA noted.

This week brought the second and far larger breach of last month’s truce.

After Iranian forces struck three commercial vessels on Monday and Tuesday, US Central Command hit more than 80 targets across Iran, including air defences, coastal radar and over 60 Revolutionary Guard small boats, while Washington revoked the licence permitting Iranian oil exports.

Iran fired drones and missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, causing no major damage, and US President Donald Trump has since declared the ceasefire over.

Tehran insists the only safe passage is the route it sets in the Strait of Hormuz as traffic fell to 13 tankers on Wednesday, against an average of 33 a day the previous week, according to shipping data from Kpler.

Additional sources • AFP

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., questions Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee hearing at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on September 14, 2022. On Monday, Paul issued a subpoena to Fauci to testify on allegations he covered up the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. File Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

June 23 (UPI) — Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said he has subpoenaed Dr. Anthony Fauci after the former infectious diseases official backed out on an agreement to testify on the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Hill reported that this is the first subpoena issued by Paul as chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

“Last week, Anthony Fauci notified us that he will not voluntarily testify before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, even though he had previously agreed to do so,” Paul wrote in a post on X on Tuesday. “Therefore, today we have issued a subpoena for him to publicly testify.”

The post on X included a photo of Rand appearing to sign the subpoena.

Paul has repeatedly clashed with Fauci over policies and recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The senator accused Fauci of covering up U.S. research at a lab in Wuhan, China, which he said caused the coronavirus outbreak.

“We’ve been negotiating with him for material and for testimony,” Paul said in an appearance on CNBC on Tuesday.

“This has gone on for some time. He slow-walked us and slow-walked us. Finally agreed to come in voluntarily … then last week he says he’s not coming in.

“With this subpoena power, we will bring him in, unless he fights this in court.”

Fauci was the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases during the COVID-19 outbreak until 2022. He was also a top medical adviser to Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the crisis.

A U.S. intelligence analysis initially found there was insufficient evidence to prove COVID-19 was leaked from a research lab in Wuhan. In 2025, the CIA adjusted its stance.

“CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin-based on the available body of reporting,” an unnamed CIA representative said in a statement in January 2025.

During testimony in 2024, Fauci said he was open to both perspectives.

“I have repeatedly stated that I have a completely open mind to either possibility and that if definitive evidence becomes available to validate or refute either theory, I will readily accept it,” he said during his opening statement before a House committee hearing.

WASHINGTON — A former senior adviser to Dr. Anthony Fauci was indicted on federal charges alleging he conspired to hide his communications related to COVID-19 research as the pandemic raged across the country, the Justice Department said Tuesday.

Dr. David Morens, 78, is accused of using his private email account to intentionally circumvent public records laws while employed at the National Institutes of Health. The Justice Department alleges that he concealed or destroyed records of discussions related to COVID-19 research grants, including an effort to revive a controversial coronavirus grant.

“These allegations represent a profound abuse of trust at a time when the American people needed it most — during the height of a global pandemic,” acting Atty. Gen. Todd Blanche said in a statement Tuesday. “Government officials have a solemn duty to provide honest, well-grounded facts and advice in service of the public interest — not to advance their own personal or ideological agendas.”

Morens faces charges of conspiracy against the United States; destruction, alteration or falsification of records in federal investigations; concealment, removal or mutilation of records; and aiding and abetting, according to a Justice Department news release. If convicted, he could face decades in prison. An attorney for Morens declined to comment.

The indictment reflects Republicans’ long-held belief that the federal government covered up key information about COVID-19 as the pandemic unfolded. Despite numerous probes, the origins of COVID have never been proven. Scientists are unsure whether the virus jumped from an animal, as many other viruses have, or came from a laboratory accident. A U.S. intelligence analysis released in 2023 said there is insufficient evidence to prove either theory.

Blanche said Morens’ alleged conduct was part of an effort to “suppress alternative theories” about COVID-19’s origins. The Justice Department also accused Morens of having an improper relationship with a collaborator, including allegedly accepting a gift of wine and discussing COVID-19 research and potential publications in a prominent medical journal.

The indictment follows a probe by House Republicans into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic that scrutinized Morens’ email communications and accused him of intentionally concealing records. In congressional testimony, Morens denied attempting to evade federal transparency laws by using his personal email.