costs

Recently, former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) director general Karl Kendrick Chua said that the Philippines is standing at a “critical juncture” that could determine whether the country finally attains sustained high growth or once again falls into a cycle of lost opportunities.

Speaking during a Makati Business Club briefing, Chua, who now serves as a managing director at Ayala Corp., noted that depending on the policy crafted, the results have been varied. “You have years where the critical juncture led to economic recession or depression. There are years where it led to economic growth,” he added.

The current economic position of the Philippines is the effect of several critical junctures where policy choices either accelerated or derailed long-term development. For example, Chua noted that if the country had avoided the 1983 debt crisis and the 1997–2003 fiscal crisis, per capita income today could have matched or even exceeded Thailand’s. “These crises wiped out decades of growth,” Chua said.

To understand the magnitudes involved, it is instructive to go beyond these remarks. So, let’s take a closer look at these past losses and the more recent ones.

Debt, fiscal and corruption crises            

Starting in 1983, the debt crisis penalized the Philippine GDP for a decade.

Let’s assume that the economic trends that had prevailed prior to the crisis would have prevailed without a crisis. In this view, it was only after the early 1990s, that the Philippines GDP first got to level where it had first been 10 years before. In economic terms, the debt crisis was a lost decade.

Adding the cumulative losses, it cost the economy over $152 billion.

What about the fiscal crisis?

Starting in the mid-1990s, this crisis penalized the GDP until 2011. Again, let’s assume that the economic trend that had prevailed before the fiscal crisis would have prevailed without a crisis. In this view, it was only in the early 2010s that the Philippines GDP got to the level where it had first been almost two decades before.

Adding the cumulative losses, it cost the economy over $630 billion – over four times more than the prior crisis.

Although flood-control corruption is an old challenge, the present crisis associated with it – assuming the critics are right – moved to a new level after 2022. In that case, assuming the present trends prevail, it could penalize the GDP by more than $191 billion by 2028.

Notice that in the case of the debt and fiscal crises, we have historical economic data that allows us to test counterfactuals. Whereas in the case of the flood-control corruption, we are comparing economic performances in the Duterte years (2016-2022) and in the projected Marcos Jr. years (2022-28), in order to assess the economic value of missed opportunities.

The Costs of Three Crises. GDP, current prices; in billions of U.S. dollars. Source: IMF/WEO, author

Losses of almost $1 trillion in four decades        

In a current project, I am examining the economic development of most world economies from the 19^th century up to 2050. The kind of losses that the Philippines has suffered are typical to conflict-prone nations, but somewhat unique in countries that should benefit from peacetime conditions.

The lost opportunities and economic value associated with these crises indicate that in the past 45 years or so, the Philippine GDP has under-performed far more often than it has engaged in more optimal growth.

That translates to missed opportunities of massive magnitude, in light of the size of the economy. All things considered, these losses could amount to more than $970 billion.

Overcoming misguided and self-interested economic policies that serve the few at the expense of the many is vital in a nation, where poverty and food security is the nightmare of every second household.

Pressing need for development and smart diplomacy

According to public surveys, the national priority issues are topped by the need to control the rise in prices of basic goods and services (48%) and fighting corruption (31%). Other major concerns are also domestic featuring affordable food (31%), improving wages (27%), and reducing poverty (23%).

These are all pressing domestic, bread-and-butter issues. And yet, although foreign policy issues represent a fraction in popular national priorities, much of the country’s policy attention and resources have been allocated to precisely such priorities.

Of course, the country should insist on its national interest, but that interest should be defined by the needs of the many, not by the priorities of the few. And that should mean focus on inflation control, corruption, food security, rising wages and poverty reduction.

Most Southeast Asian nations have elevated their economic fortunes by accelerated economic development and smart regional diplomacy. There is no reason why the Philippines couldn’t or shouldn’t do the same.

Most Filipinos would certainly agree.

*Author’s note: The original version was published by The Manila Times on November 24, 2025

The six routes to the islands, which have been growing in popularity as winter sun destinations, will be cancelled from March 2026 with the budget airline citing issues such as rising air traffic control costs

Ryanair has announced it’ll cut all of its routes to the Azores islands as of March 29, 2026, due to rising costs and travel taxes, the airline claims.

The budget airline once offered six routes to and from the island, including seasonal flights from London Stansted and Bristol Airport, which operated from April to October. It also offered connections from Portugal’s mainland, including Lisbon and Porto.

Ryanair’s CCO Jason McGuinness said: “We are disappointed that the French airport monopoly ANA continues to raise Portuguese airport fees to line its pockets, at the expense of Portuguese tourism and jobs – particularly on the Portuguese islands. As a direct result of these rising costs, we have been left with no alternative other than to cancel all Azores flights from 29 March 2026 onwards and relocate this capacity to lower cost airports elsewhere in the extensive Ryanair Group network across Europe.”

He added: “This loss of low fare connectivity to the Azores is direct result of the French monopoly airport operator – VINCI – imposing excessive airport charges across Portugal (which have risen by up to 35% since Covid) and the anti-competitive enviro taxes imposed by the EU, which exempt more polluting long haul flights to the US and Middle East, at the expense of EU remote regions such as the Azores.

“After 10 years of year-round Ryanair operations, one of Europe’s most remote regions will now lose direct low-fare flights to London, Brussels, Lisbon, and Porto due to ANA’s high airport fees and Portuguese Govt. inaction.”

The airline also urged the Portuguese government to take action, with statement saying: “The Portuguese Govt. must intervene and ensure that its airports which are a critical part of national infrastructure – especially in an island economy like the Azores – are used to benefit the Portuguese people, rather than benefitting a French airport monopoly.”

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Ryanair’s axing of these flights now leaves Brits with only one direct route to the Azores; British Airways offer seasonal flights from London Heathrow to Ponta Delgada Airport. However, direct flights only run during the peak summer season, although you can book flights with a connection in Portugal’s mainland for the rest of the year.

The Azores are not the first destination to see its Ryanair services axed due to costs. Ryanair abandoned a number of regional airports in 2025 including Strasbourg, Bergerac, and Vatry, and has threatened to leave several French airports due to rising taxes. Jason McGuinness told a French magazine that a 180% tax increase made regional airports ‘unviable’ for the airline.

The French government’s 2025 budget included a tax hike for air travel, meaning domestic and European flights leaving France were hit with an extra cost of €4.77 (approx. £4.21) per ticket.

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WASHINGTON — Republicans won a significant political victory this month when moderate Senate Democrats joined them to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, relenting from a showdown over the rising costs of healthcare.

But the fight is already back on, with mere weeks to spare before the Trump administration faces a potential uproar from the public over the expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits on New Year’s Day, when premium costs will skyrocket.

The fast-approaching deadline, coupled with stinging defeats in elections earlier this month driven by voter concerns over affordability, has prompted a series of crisis meetings in the West Wing over a path forward on Capitol Hill.

The White House response that emerged this week is a political Hail Mary for an increasingly divided party entering an election year: a second megabill, deploying the parliamentary tool of reconciliation, addressing not just healthcare costs but Trump’s tariff policies under intense scrutiny at the Supreme Court.

“We’re going to have the healthcare conversation. We’re going to put some legislation forward,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said Tuesday, addressing a breakfast event hosted by Bloomberg Government, as House Republican leaders pitched the plan to their members in a closed-door meeting.

“The president probably would like to go bigger than the Hill has the appetite for,” Blair added, “so we’ll have to see how that, you know, works out.”

New plan, last minute

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise presented the plan to skeptical Republican lawmakers on Tuesday, arguing an extension of tax credits for what he called the “Unaffordable Care Act” — even if they are renegotiated on Republican terms — would only mask the problem of rising premium costs, ultimately burdening the taxpayer.

Trump sent a message to the caucus ahead of their meeting on Tuesday morning with a post on Truth Social, emphatic in all caps.

“THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH,” Trump wrote. “THE PEOPLE WILL BE ALLOWED TO NEGOTIATE AND BUY THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, INSURANCE. POWER TO THE PEOPLE!”

“Congress, do not waste your time and energy on anything else,” Trump added. “This is the only way to have great Healthcare in America!!! GET IT DONE, NOW.”

Yet the plan is causing anxiety across a wide ideological range of Republican lawmakers, including moderates in vulnerable races entering next year’s midterm elections as well as those from deep red districts whose constituents rely on the Affordable Care Act, more widely known as Obamacare.

Nearly six in 10 Americans who use the ACA marketplace live in Republican districts, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Enrollment is highest across the South, where districts across Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida consistently see more than 10% of their residents relying on the program.

Going for broke with reconciliation

Trump’s proposal would do away with the tax credits, potentially overhauling health savings accounts that would encourage Americans to save on their own and choose their healthcare plan.

But it’s unclear whether such a dramatic, last-minute change in the healthcare system, still in draft form, would garner enough Republican support to pass the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can only afford to lose two Republicans on party-line votes.

The bill would come in a perilous political environment for Republican lawmakers, who one year ago faced a tie with Democrats on a generic ballot, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. In the group’s latest poll, Democrats are up by 14 points.

Even if Trump’s proposal were to secure House support, the Trump administration’s plan to pursue a bill through reconciliation in the Senate — which allows the upper chamber to pass legislation with a simple majority, instead of 60 votes — could face significant hurdles.

Senate parliamentary rules only allow reconciliation to be used for legislation that directly changes federal spending, revenues, or the debt limit. That could encompass an overhaul to health savings accounts, and potentially to codify Trump’s tariff policies, which have been approved through reconciliation in years past. But the fine print would be up to the discretion of the parliamentarian, whose cuts to tangential policy provisions could upend delicate negotiations.

Reconciliation was used in Trump’s last major push to repeal Obamacare, in 2017, when the late Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) surprised the nation with a thumbs-down vote on the measure.

That bill, McCain argued, would have repealed the healthcare of millions without a plan to replace it.

What else you should be reading

The must-read: Could Trump destroy the Epstein files?
The deep dive: A bombshell federal fraud case exploded inside Gov. Newsom’s powerful political orbit
The L.A. Times Special: This Arizona town is an unexpected magnet for Californians: ‘We do it our way’

More to come,
Michael Wilner
—
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WIZZ Air is pulling back at Britain’s second-busiest airport as it races to stem rising costs in a Europe-wide shake-up.

The Budapest-based budget carrier will slash flights from Gatwick after deciding it is losing money there, boss József Váradi said.

High operating fees and badly timed departure slots have made Gatwick a drag on performance.

Mr Váradi said: “Gatwick is expensive and we have been operating an inferior set of slots there.

“We think that we can enhance financial performance by operating that capacity from Luton.”

As part of the overhaul, Wizz will start by moving one aircraft from Gatwick to Luton, giving Luton 13 jets and cutting Gatwick’s fleet to seven.

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He added: “Circumstances change and you have to take action.

“Whichever bases give you the most profitability, you should be biased toward them.

“That includes moving aircraft over from Gatwick to Luton.”

Gatwick has been near capacity for years, keeping prices high and limiting space for rivals.

A £2.2billion plan to convert an emergency strip into a second runway is expected to double passenger numbers, but not until the 2030s.

Wizz insists it isn’t quitting Gatwick entirely.

Mr Váradi said the base will be “optimised”, adding: “You have to churn your network for profit. We are simply more efficient financially in Luton.”

He dismissed any link to Jet2’s plan to position seven aircraft at Gatwick from next year.

“Gatwick is stuck. It is so set with regard to slots that no newcomer can make any significant difference. Jet2 will be very sub-scale versus the established players,” he said.

The retreat comes as Wizz battles a series of financial shocks.

The airline has been hit hard by the Ukraine war, which has disrupted some of its biggest routes, and a global recall of faulty Pratt & Whitney engines that has grounded up to 45 planes at a time.

Mr Váradi has responded with aggressive cost-cutting.

The carrier shut its Abu Dhabi offshoot in July and is axing its Vienna base because of “airport costs and taxes”.

The shake-up in Austria has already triggered fresh disruption for UK passengers.

Earlier this month Wizz said it would cease operations to Vienna next year after a “strategic review”.

The decision will end two daily Gatwick–Vienna flights, which drop to one over winter, with all services stopping by March 2026.

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“We are ceasing operations in Vienna. After a strategic review, we are gradually closing our base in Vienna,” the airline said on X.

Routes to Bilbao and London Gatwick will be pulled on 26 October 2025, with all remaining Vienna flights stopping on 15 March 2026.