A view of South Korea’s first commercial nuclear reactor, Kori-1, in the southeastern port city of Busan. YONHAP / EPA
March 17 (Asia Today) —This commentary is the Asia Today Editor’s Op-Ed.
South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party and the government have decided to raise the operating rates of nuclear and coal-fired power plants to respond to rising oil prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, a move critics say marks a late reversal of the party’s long-standing opposition to nuclear energy.
Ahn Do-geol, secretary of the party’s economic task force on the Middle East crisis, said Monday the government will expand electricity generation from nuclear and coal plants to manage supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which has relatively limited reserves.
Under the plan, the government will lift a cap limiting coal-fired power generation to 80% of installed capacity and accelerate repairs on six nuclear reactors currently under maintenance. Two reactors are expected to return to service by the end of this month and four more by May, raising nuclear utilization rates from the current high-60% range to about 80%.
The decision signals a clear shift for the Democratic Party, which long supported a phase-out of nuclear energy.
Former President Moon Jae-in formally declared a nuclear phase-out policy in 2017, pledging to abandon nuclear-centered electricity generation after attending a ceremony marking the permanent shutdown of the Kori Unit 1 reactor.
At the time, Moon argued South Korea should move toward a nuclear-free era and halted or scrapped most plans to build new nuclear plants.
The party’s stance began to soften after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which triggered global energy supply disruptions. Near the end of his presidency, Moon said nuclear power would need to remain a major baseload energy source for decades and called for delayed reactors including Shin Hanul Units 1 and 2 and Shin Kori Units 5 and 6 to begin operations as soon as possible.
The latest shift reflects renewed energy concerns linked to instability in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices higher.
Supporters of nuclear power argue it remains a critical energy source despite safety risks highlighted by past disasters such as the Fukushima accident in Japan.
Opponents warn that nuclear accidents can cause catastrophic damage, pointing to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, which has faced repeated safety concerns amid the ongoing war.
However, critics of the phase-out policy argue that abandoning nuclear energy without reliable alternatives risks creating energy shortages.
South Korea currently has only about nine days’ worth of LNG reserves, raising concerns about energy security during geopolitical crises.
Supporters of the policy shift say governments must adjust energy strategies as global conditions change but argue that long-term policies on energy and food security should be developed with careful planning rather than reactive decisions.
Gen Z views music and fashion trends as economic recession indicators.
Traditional economic indicators show no current signs of a recession.
Gen Z uses social media to discuss economic theories.
The U.S. has not been declared in a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Get personalized, AI-powered answers built on 27+ years of trusted expertise.
Generation Z is using social media to voice concerns about a potential U.S. recession, drawing attention to signs they believe are indicators of economic stress: from Lady Gaga’s newest album to 2000s-style low-rise jeans. Is this an exaggerated response to uncertainty, or is Gen Z tapped into early economic warning signs that might typically go unnoticed?
While it can be tempting to get sucked into these theories, ultimately, experts and data suggest that these are unreliable indicators and that a recession is not looming. Here’s what to know.
Insights from Gen Z on Economic Trends
Generation Z is interpreting the return of 2000s trends as indicators of an impending recession. The resurgence of fashion styles such as low-rise jeans, cheetah print, and rhinestone apparel parallels the cultural trends leading up to the 2008 Great Recession. In turn, Gen Z is concluding that these are warning signs of a similar time period, rather than turning to actual economic data and expert analysis.
Music is another way Gen Z is interpreting recession indicators. For instance, Lady Gaga’s latest album has led TikTok users to comment on how the country is heading toward economic turmoil due to the album’s similarity to her pre-recession era music. Newer artists, such as Chappell Roan, are also sparking commentary on the resemblance of 2000s-styled music, reinforcing this theory.
Important
Social media plays a primary role in spreading Gen Z’s economic theories. For example, Gen Z has started incorporating these discussions in trending TikTok formats, such as “Get Ready with Me”-styled videos.
Economic Data Analysis: Understanding the Trends
So, is there any merit to what Gen Z sees as cultural cues to a souring economy? Established economic indicators suggest no. Traditionally, economists look at gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, and the stock market to gauge recession risk. Let’s break down where each of these stands.
GDP
Government data reports that GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Increases in consumer spending and investment contributed to the GDP increase. For a recession to start, there needs to be an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in GDP for two consecutive quarters.
J.P. Morgan anticipated a 0.25% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second half of 2025. Based on their data, they estimated that the probability of a recession has decreased from 60% to 40% due to a reduction in tariffs on China by the United States.
Unemployment Rates
Economists and policymakers use the Sahm rule to identify if there is a recession, as described by the U.S. Congress. The rule signals a recession if “the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low in the previous 12 months.”
Unemployment rates are currently at 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For comparison, the unemployment rate before the 2008 recession was 5%. Thus, the rule has not been triggered, indicating that there is no recession, though it remains a useful early indicator of a potential recession.
Important
The National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared the U.S. to be in a recession.
Gen Z’s recession indicators, such as music and fashion, may be persuasive, but their concerns do not reflect actual trends. While the pressures of federal layoffs and tariff tensions persist, most traditional indicators signal a moderately stable environment and do not suggest the country is in a recession.
Ultimately, while Gen Z’s recession interpretations may not be reliable, they do highlight a cultural shift in how younger generations understand the economy, relying on cultural cues rather than traditional data.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones at U.S., Israeli, and other allied targets in the Middle East has been severely degraded, two top American military leaders said Wednesday morning. Partly as a result, War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also downplayed concerns about the magazine depth of U.S. offensive and defensive munitions.
You can catch up with our latest coverage of ongoing operations against Iran here. All of the other latest updates can be found lower on the page.
“Iran’s theater ballistic missile shots fired are down 86% from the first day of fighting, with a 23% decrease just in the last 24 hours, and their one-way attack drone shots are down 73% from the opening days,” Caine told reporters, including from The War Zone, at a Wednesday morning press conference. “This progress has allowed CENTCOM to establish localized air superiority across the southern flank of the Iranian coast and penetrate their defenses with overwhelming precision and firepower. We will now begin to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory and creating additional freedom of maneuver for U.S forces.”
Caine did not break down the numbers of Iranian missiles and drones fired. However, on Tuesday, the head of CENTCOM provided some statistics.
“The Iranian regime has launched over 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video message.
As we have previously mentioned, one of the big concerns about Epic Fury is whether Iranian missile and drone barrages would outlast the ability of the U.S. and allies to defend against them. Despite four days of intensive attacks, Tehran still possesses thousands of missiles and drones, though a significant number of these weapons and their launchers — specifically the longer range ballistic missile types —have been destroyed or prevented from being accessed by crews.
In a closed-door Congressional hearing on Tuesday, Hegseth and Caine “told lawmakers…that Iran’s Shahed attack drones represent a major challenge and US air defenses will not be able to intercept them all, according to a source in the briefing,” CNN reported.
Trump admin officials acknowledged during a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill Tuesday that Iran’s Shahed attack drones represent a major challenge and US air defenses will not be able to intercept them all. The drones, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint…
However, both military leaders also “made an attempt to downplay concerns about the drones and noted that Gulf state partners had been stockpiling interceptors,” CNN reported.
During Wednesday’s press conference, both Caine and Hegseth stated that the U.S. has the weapons it needs.
A night vision picture of a B-2 bomber supporting Operation Epic Fury. CENTCOM
“We used more exquisite standoff munitions at the start, but no longer need to,” the secretary proclaimed. “Our stockpiles of those, as well as Patriots [air defense interceptors], remain extremely strong. The enemy can no longer shoot the volume of missiles they once did. Not even close.”
Another big factor in the reduction in Iranian missile launches could be how CENTCOM has concentrated striking command and control (C2) nodes, degrading Tehran’s ability to communicate and direct fires.
Iranian (C2) “structures in a bad way,” Caine posited. “Admiral Cooper has been continuing to pressure the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] IRGC C2 and other military elements, and will continue to do so.”
A graphic the Pentagon released today offering details about the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury against Iran. US Military
As a result of how the operation has unfolded, “CENTCOM is now shifting in day four already from large deliberate strike packages- using standoff munitions at range outside an enemy’s ability to shoot at us – now into stand-in precision strikes overhead Iran.”
Caine said the U.S. is now using “joint direct attack munitions [JDAMs], which are GPS-aided free-fall weapons and other things like [AGM-114] Hellfires, etc. This will allow the joint force to deliver significantly increased precision effects on the target.”
A USAF MQ-9 Reaper fires a AGM-114 Hellfire at a Iranian ballistic missile TEL, which had just revealed its position by firing. pic.twitter.com/gWP4sdxrzh
TWZ has frequently described how important it is for the U.S. to move as quickly as possible from standoff to direct attacks on Iranian targets, which will significantly increase the number of strikes that can occur and widen the range of effects that can be realized via the employment of more varied weaponry. This is especially true for going after fortified targets with bunker buster munitions.
The U.S. Air Force continues to execute a high volume of airstrikes into Iran. The two most powerful air forces in the world (🇺🇸+🇮🇱) are dominating the skies over the world’s largest state sponsor of terror. pic.twitter.com/0nfwY3zdCL
Hegseth further explained that “we moved the vast majority of American troops – over 90% of Americans that were on our bases – off the X out of the range of Iranian fire. Our defensive shield is equally formidable. The most sophisticated air and missile defense network ever fielded. Thousands of Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted and vaporized, tens of thousands of American allied lives protected. We have pushed every counter-UAS [uncrewed aerial systems] system possible forward, sparing no expense or capability.”
“I know there have been a lot of questions about munitions,” Caine acknowledged. “We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense, but I want to tell you teammates, as a matter of practice, I don’t want to be talking about quantities, and I know there’s been a great debate about that, and I appreciate the interest, but just know that we consider that an operational security matter.”
Regardless of the public stance taken by Hegseth and Caine, the Trump administration “plans to meet with executives from the biggest U.S. defense contractors at the White House on Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production, as the Pentagon works to replenish supplies after strikes on Iran and several other recent military efforts,” Reuters reported, citing “five people familiar with the plan.”
(Reuters) – The Trump administration plans to meet with executives from the biggest U.S. defense contractors at the White House on Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production, as the Pentagon works to replenish supplies after strikes on Iran and several other recent…
Still, Trump has gone out of his way to present a problem he has mentioned as being concerning many times before, as a non issue:
“The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better,” Trump said Tuesday on his Truth Social platform. “As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought “forever,” and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!). At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be. Much additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries…”
Following reports from various media outlets that stockpiles of U.S. munitions, including air defense interceptors for Patriot and THAAD systems, were running low, President Trump posted to TruthSocial that the U.S. has a “virtually unlimited supply” and that “wars can be fought… pic.twitter.com/7m6xEjVnfM
So, as it sits today, there is still a race against who will run out of munitions first when it comes to Iran’s long-range strike capabilities, but it seems as if the tide is turning in favor of the U.S., Israel, and the Arab Gulf states based on the information we are seeing. With direct attacks now ramping up on Iranian targets deeper and farther east in Iran, the momentum will more likely than not continue in that direction. This does not address the stockpile’s concerning state in regard to a potential conflict with China or even Russia. It is in a far worse state than it was at the start of this war, and these weapons take years and huge sums of money to build.
The two military leaders also discussed several other topics, including:
“Yesterday, the leader of the unit who attempted to assassinate President Trump has been hunted down and killed,” said Hegseth. “Iran tried to kill President Trump, and President Trump got the last laugh.”
“Over the next 24 to 48 hours, CENTCOM will continue to strike infrastructure and naval capability and will continue to assess our progress against the military objectives,” said Caine.
“Our partners are answering the call to defend themselves right alongside us,” Caine noted. “Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, are all defending their people with their own combat capability, with precision and restraint.”
“We’ve got a lot of autonomous systems, or systems that are that – drones and others incorporated with smart AI aspects to them, but a lot of which I can’t talk about here,” Hegseth stated.
Hegseth addressed Iranian claims that the U.S. struck a girl’s school in southern Iran, killing more than 175 people. “All I can say is that we’re investigating that,” he avowed. “We. of course, never target civilian targets, but we’re taking a look at investigating.”
“I am not going to comment on U.S. boots on the ground,” Caine said. “I think that’s a question for policymakers, and I don’t make policy. I execute policy.”
The rest of our ongoing coverage of the conflict continues below, with the latest updates at the top.
UPDATE: 4:12 PM EST –
U.S. Central Command has issued another set of denials regarding claimed U.S. losses in the ongoing conflict, including that U.S. naval vessels and aircraft have been destroyed by enemy fire.
More fake news from the Iranian regime: 🚫The regime claims U.S. forces are withdrawing. 🚫They say they sank a U.S. destroyer. 🚫IRGC claims to have taken down U.S. fighter aircraft. 🚫The regime says they killed 100 U.S. Marines. ALL LIES.
In another new data point about the apparent slowing pace of Iranian missile launches, the IDF’s Home Front Command says it is easing restrictions on public gatherings and movements imposed at the start of the conflict. Another reassessment is now set to occur on Saturday, which could lead to further easements.
As the rate of Iran’s ballistic missile fire on Israel slows, the IDF Home Front Command says it is easing restrictions that were imposed on the Israeli public at the start of the conflict.
Following a fresh assessment, the Home Front Command says that from tomorrow at noon, the… pic.twitter.com/xYGj9EbZhx
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
Iranian-backed militants in Iraq have threatened to attack the interests of France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other NATO nations if they “interfere in Iraq or the region,” according to Reuters. Pro-Iranian militants also reportedly carried out a drone attack on a majority Christian neighborhood in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s northern Kurdish autonomous region.
IRAQ’S ISLAMIC RESISTANCE SAYS ANY ENTITY THAT AIMS TO INTERFERE IN IRAQ OR THE REGION, INCLUDING NATO, FRANCE, GERMANY AND BRITIAN, WOULD HAVE ITS INTERESTS AS ‘LEGITIMATE TARGETS’ FOR THE GROUP
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed Operation Epic Fury on Tuesday.
“Well, they’re not part of the plan for this operation at this time, but I certainly will never take away military options on behalf of the president of the United States or the commander in chief, and he wisely does not do the same for himself,” she said in response to a question about whether the U.S. military could commit ground troops to the operation. “I know there’s many leaders in the past who liked to take options off of the table without having a full understanding of how things could develop. So again, it’s not part of the current plan, but I’m not going to remove an option for the president to act that is on the table.”
“I don’t want to commit to a timeline, but certainly it’s something that is being calculated actively by both the Department of War and the Department of Energy. They’re working very closely. Both secretaries are in all of the briefings on this subject with the president, and this is again something they’re monitoring,” she also said when asked when U.S. Navy ships might begin escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. “And if and when necessary, the United States Navy will provide assistance to escort oil tankers through the Strait.”
“Obviously, as the president has said numerous times, do we want to see Iran being led by a rogue terrorist regime? No, of course, not,” she said on the topic of regime change. “So any day the United States of America is taking out a terrorist is a good day for our country and a good day for our people.”
When it comes to what role the United States could have after the conflict ends, “I think it’s something the president is actively considering and discussing with his advisors and his national security team,” she added. “But again, right now, the focus minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour, day-by-day, is on ensuring the quick and effective success of Operation Epic Fury.”
Q: Has the president considered how he views a US role in Iran post-conflict?
“I don’t have any updates for you on congressional asks from the president. As you know, under this president, we have significantly increased our defense budget, which is a good thing for the United States, for our national security and for protecting our homeland,” when asked about concerns about stocks of anti-air interceptors. “With respect to munitions, ammunition, weapons stockpiles, the United States of America has more than enough capability to not only successfully execute operation Epic Fury, but to go much further. And we have weapons stockpiles in places that many people in this world don’t even know about.”
Leavitt: “With respect to munitions, the United States has more than enough capability to not only successfully execute Operation Epic Fury but to go much further. We have weapons stockpiles in places that many people in this world don’t even know about. Unfortunately we had a… pic.twitter.com/qNHmQLp1Gc
“I will also add, President Trump has rightfully been calling on defense contractors in this country to rapidly and aggressively produce American-made weapons because they are the best in the world,” she added.
The Israeli Air Force has released pictures showing F-16I jets heading out for strikes on Iran carrying stand-in munitions.
The IDF continues to target Iranian ballistic missile capabilities in the central and western parts of the country.
An “extensive” wave of Israeli airstrikes in central and western Iran earlier today destroyed dozens of Iranian ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, the military says.
According to the IDF, some of the missile launchers were armed and they were struck while… pic.twitter.com/GeBw8bNYda
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
The IDF has pushed back on the suggestion that attacks from Iran and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon today were directly coordinated.
“It is true, there was fire at the same time, more or less, you can say simultaneously, from Iran and Lebanon,” IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said at a press conference, according to The Times of Israel. “I don’t possess any intelligence information that says this was coordinated.”
IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says the military has no intelligence indicating that today’s concurrent fire from Iran and by Hezbollah in Lebanon was a coordinated effort.
“It is true, there was fire at the same time, more or less, you can say simultaneously, from Iran…
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
New satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows damage resulting from strikes on an Iranian missile base in Kermanshah.
Planet imagery shows airstrike related damage at the Kermanshah missile base (North), Iran, most of the buildings associated with the site have been destroyed, strikes also extend to the underground tunnel entrances pic.twitter.com/9XfPW1rkbu
Axios has reported that the White House denied reports of back-channel communications with the regime in Iran in response to queries from Israeli authorities.
🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷Netanyahu sought clarifications from the White House earlier this week after intelligence suggested Trump administration officials might be communicating with Iran. The White House told him no such talks had taken place. My story on @axioshttps://t.co/RRvVnXrPEF
“We need to act with clarity, with purpose, and with a cool head. The protection of U.K. nationals is our number one priority,” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said today. “American planes operating out of British bases, that is the special relationship in action… hanging on to President Trump’s latest words is not.”
Has the PM’s “dithering” response to the week’s events made the UK-US “relationship stronger or weaker?” Tory MP Gareth Bacon asks
Spanish authorities have denied White House claims that they agreed to support current U.S. operations in the Middle East following economic threats from President Donald Trump. Yesterday, Trump had threatened to cut off all trade with Spain after authorities in Madrid blocked the use of bases in the country to support strikes on Iran.
“I categorically deny it. I heard about these statements on my way here, and I’ve had time to look into them and listen to them a little,” Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares said. https://t.co/TS7xwBCyOr
French President Emmanuel Macron has issued a statement after speaking with the leaders of Israel and Lebanon. Macron called on Hezbollah to cease attacks on Israel and for Israel to preserve Lebanon’s territorial integrity.
Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar has written that his service’s “special units are currently carrying out extraordinary missions that could ignite the imagination” in a letter, according to Ynet News. No further details about the letter’s origins or how it was obtained are provided. This comes amid other unconfirmed reports of unusual military activity in the Najaf Desert in Iraq. Israeli special operations forces have conducted spectacular raids in the past, including one targeting an Iranian-linked underground missile production facility in Syria in 2024. TWZ noted at the time that this sent a signal to Iran that its critical underground facilities were not untouchable.
MORE: Israeli Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said today that IAF special forces are currently carrying out “extraordinary missions that could ignite the imagination.”
Israeli Air Force operates elite special units such as Shaldag (Unit 5101) and Unit 669, which conduct… https://t.co/S0Yvx4kZYe
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say they have now dropped 5,000 munitions on targets in Iran since the start of the current conflict, and that operations “continue to deepen air superiority throughout Iran, with an emphasis on the Tehran area.” The IDF also continues to release footage from those strikes.
The Israeli Air Force has dropped over 5,000 bombs during strikes in Iran since the start of the conflict, the military says.
The military says that IAF fighter jets “continue to deepen air superiority throughout Iran, with an emphasis on the Tehran area.”
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
An armed Iranian ballistic missile launcher in the Kermanshah area was destroyed by an Israeli Air Force F-35 fighter jet today, the military says. pic.twitter.com/W9BihQbtPI
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
The IDF has also released the video clip below showing a strike on what looks to be one of Iran’s Russian-made Mi-17 Hip helicopters. However, there are questions about whether it may have been a decoy.
Looks like the Israeli Air Force struck a decoy of an Iranian Mil Mi-17 helicopter painted on the ground. pic.twitter.com/mtEznE308A
— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 4, 2026
The IDF has also provided details about targets struck during another round of strikes on Iran’s capital, Tehran.
🎯STRUCK: A large Iranian terror regime military compound in eastern Tehran.
Struck command centers in the compound include:
* The IRGC headquarters * The Intelligence Directorate headquarters * The ‘Basij’ headquarters * The ‘Quds Force’ headquarters * The Internal Security… pic.twitter.com/XBvXqks29R
The Israeli Air Force says it carried out “large-scale” airstrikes in Tehran targeting a massive Iranian military compound, which housed headquarters and personnel from across Iran’s security apparatus.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
Israeli forces are also continuing to conduct ground operations in southern Lebanon, ostensibly targeting Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants.
The IDF publishes footage of its new deployment in southern Lebanon, after Hezbollah began attacking Israel.
Troops have pushed deeper into southern Lebanon in recent days, with the IDF saying it assumed “forward defensive positions to establish an additional defensive layer to… pic.twitter.com/cnsKfLXgfB
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
The IDF says Lebanese civilians in all of southern Lebanon should evacuate to north of the Litani River, amid the ongoing fighting against Hezbollah. pic.twitter.com/d9eTOzSo92
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
U.S. Central Command also continues to release footage from strikes on targets in Iran.
While the Iranian regime indiscriminately targets civilians with missiles and drones, U.S. forces continue to aggressively hunt and destroy Iranian missile launchers with precision. pic.twitter.com/1RIhMcg0Jm
CENTCOM has also now explicitly confirmed the use of Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missiles in strikes on Iran. This detail had already emerged, as TWZ previously reported.
In a historic first, long-range Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) were used in combat during Operation Epic Fury, providing an unrivaled deep strike capability.
“I just could not be prouder of our men and women in uniform leveraging innovation to create dilemmas for the enemy.”… pic.twitter.com/bydvIv5Tn5
Israeli authorities are still planning around one to two more weeks of operations against Iran, at least, according to the Times of Israel.
The Israeli military is planning for at least one or two more weeks of operations in Iran, during which it aims to hit thousands more Iranian regime targets, The Times of Israel has learned.
Israel’s goal is a systematic degradation of the Iranian regime and its military sites.…
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 4, 2026
Imagery continues to emerge, said to show strikes on targets in Iran’s capital, Tehran.
Massive clouds of smoke rising over several neighborhoods of the capital of Iran, Tehran, following continued American/Israeli strikes on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/ksuZvvFiZh
— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 4, 2026
US/Israeli airstrike this morning in Tehran, targeting an Iranian site in the government and military-heavy District 4. pic.twitter.com/uWKAM0aj9n
The video below is said to show the crew of a commercial vessel somewhere in the Middle East watching as U.S. Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles pass overhead toward targets in Iran.
The Telegraph newspaper in the United Kingdom has reported that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers could soon be flying strikes on Iran from RAF Fairford in that country, as well as Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. There were reports in the lead-up to the current conflict, that British authorities had denied use of those same bases to support any future operations against Iran.
BREAKING: American B-2 stealth bombers are expected to land at British military bases “in a matter of days” to join attacks on Iran. Bases at Diego Garcia and at RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, are being prepared for their arrival, Western officials said today.
“Based on analysis of [the] latest available satellite imagery, IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] sees no damage to facilities containing nuclear material in Iran and therefore no radiological release risk at this time,” according to a new statement from the Agency today. “Near [the] Isfahan nuclear site, damage is visible at two buildings. No additional impact detected at Natanz after previously reported damage at entrances, and no impact at other nuclear sites, including [the] Bushehr NPP [nuclear power plant].”
Based on analysis of latest available satellite imagery, IAEA sees no damage to facilities containing nuclear material in Iran and therefore no radiological release risk at this time. Near Isfahan nuclear site, damage is visible at two buildings. No additional impact detected at… pic.twitter.com/boUtjRTpAk
— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) March 4, 2026
CNN has reported again on the possibility of armed Iranian Kurdish groups launching a ground incursion in support of the current U.S.-Israeli operation, citing an unnamed source. That outlet has also reported that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has been working to arm those groups.
Asked about this today, Hegseth told reporters that “none of our objectives are premised on the support of the arming of any particular force. So what other entities may be doing, we’re aware of, but our objectives aren’t centered on that.” https://t.co/76MI2irOKE
Saudi Arabian authorities say they intercepted two Iranian cruise missiles in the vicinity of Al Kharj, a city situated near Prince Sultan Air Base. That base has been a major hub for U.S. air operations in the current conflict.
BREAKING: Saudi Ministry of Defense says two cruise missiles were intercepted and destroyed in Al-Kharj, a town near Prince Sultan Airbase
The New York Times says satellite imagery that it has reviewed shows damage to several radars, as well as communications systems and other facilities, at multiple military bases in the region as a result of Iranian retaliatory attacks.
A tent surrounded by satellite dishes was destroyed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Some of the dishes were most likely damaged as well. Al Udeid is the regional headquarters for the US Central Command, and was similarly struck by Iran last June. pic.twitter.com/TyuqZWHUL3
Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait sustained damage to at least eight buildings or structures adjacent to satellite communications infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/oToNYRLTQg
An AN/TPY-2 radar system appears to have been stationed next to a building at a military installation outside of Al Ruwais, UAE since June of last year. Sat imagery from Sunday shows a building adjacent to it had been damaged (unclear if radar was hit) pic.twitter.com/Bp80VxDdU1
While this analysis is not comprehensive (as evidenced by what appears to be yet another radar system damaged during the strikes visible in newly released sat imagery!), it does suggest Iran has been aiming to disrupt US communication and coordination https://t.co/cb2ToNwP9p
Qatar has reportedly fully halted gas liquefaction in the country, according to Reuters. It could take up to a month for production to return to normal levels once the decision is made to do so, as well.
NEW: Qatar will fully shut gas liquefaction, two sources say. Initial estimates suggest it would take about two weeks to restart operations and at least another two weeks to return to full capacity – Reuters
The United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization, which is managed by the Royal Navy, says it has received reports of another ship coming under attack in the Strait of Hormuz.
Dutch authorities are reportedly considering a request from France to deploy military assets to help safeguard commercial shipping, according to The New York Times. There are also reports that a Dutch warship could take up station in the Eastern Mediterranean to bolster defenses against Iranian threats.
The Netherlands is weighing a request from French President Emmanuel Macron to use its military to help secure international shipping routes, according to the New York Times.
The Netherlands is preparing to send HNLMS Evertsen (F805) with France’s CSG to the Eastern Mediterranean as part of a defensive deployment against Iranian attacks.
Notably, Evertsen will be able to provide ballistic missile tracking and engagement data. pic.twitter.com/0wWxZuOcSN
“EUNAFOR [European Naval Forces] ASPIDES assets in the area of operation monitors the situation, remain on high alert and stand ready to contribute within means and capabilities to protect lives at sea, contributing to freedom of navigation and enhancing Maritime Security through one of the most vital and vulnerable sea trade corridors,” a spokesperson for the European Union-led Operation Aspides has told TWZ. “ASPIDES conducts daily assessments of potential risks, making necessary operational adjustments where required.”
In the event of a resumption of Houthi attacks – which remains a possibility – we are present and ready to implement our mandate,” they added, referring to Iranian-backed militants in Yemen. “There [is] no such tasking (escort ships through or near the Strait of Hormuz) for ASPIDES.”
“We expect significantly higher costs i.e. for bunker, insurance, container storage at different ports due to closed or unreachable ports” and “delays have to be expected especially in the Middle East, but also in other trades,” German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has also told TWZ. “All ports within [the] Persian Gulf can not be served. This is why we need to find alternates [sic] in the region. Many other ports [are] not being served as well. We have a booking stop for all import/export cargo in the region.”
Danish shipping company Maersk is also “suspending most cargo bookings in and out of the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia until further notice,” according to Reuters.
COPENHAGEN, March 4 (Reuters) – Maersk said on Wednesday it is temporarily suspending most cargo bookings in and out of the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia until further notice.
All of this follows comments yesterday from U.S. President Donald Trump about the possibility of U.S. Navy ships escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which you can read more about here.
The American Jewish Committee has compiled data from open sources regarding total Iranian ballistic missile launches at countries in the region. Though the full tallies may be incomplete, the indication is that the United Arab Emirates has been most heavily targeted so far.
Nearly 50% of the missiles and UAVs fired by the Iranian regime have been aimed at the UAE.
Tehran’s actions threaten U.S. partners across the region and put broader Middle East stability at risk. pic.twitter.com/s581ZmMAjl
— American Jewish Committee (@AJCGlobal) March 3, 2026
Turkish Authorities say that “NATO air and missile defense elements” intercepted a “ballistic munition” that had been tracked passing over Iraq and Syria in the direction of the Eastern Mediterranean. Debris subsequently fell inside Turkish territory.
There are reports that the weapon was aimed at Cyprus, but went off course. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan subsequently spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and warned against “any steps that could lead to the spread of the conflict.”
A Turkish official, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said the missile had been “aimed at a base in Greek Cyprus but veered off course”. https://t.co/Q7rj2j3OSB
A ballistic missile from Iran crossing Iraq and Syria was intercepted by NATO in the Eastern Mediterranean before entering Turkish airspace. No casualties reported. Türkiye summoned Iran’s ambassador and called for restraint.https://t.co/JTBeeYVDKx
Local media in Cyprus has reported that Greek F-16 fighters now operating in the country intercepted two incoming drones earlier today.
The New York Times has reported that there have been back-channel, indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian officials, including members of the respective intelligence services, about possible off-ramps to the current conflict. That report also says that American authorities are so far skeptical. Iran’s quasi-official Tasnim News Agency says the country’s Intelligence Ministry has denied that any such talks are taking place.
NEW: The Secret Channel Between Iran and the US
In public, Iran’s surviving leaders have defiantly refused to negotiate with President Trump to end the American and Israeli assault on their country. But a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of…
Iran denies that its Intelligence Ministry reached out to the CIA for talks, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports, citing a ministry source.
“Iran’s future must not be decided outside its borders” and the international community’s support should “go to the people, not to geopolitical calculations,” Farah Pahlavi, widow of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, has said in an interview with AFP in France.
She has also said that the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is “a moment of historic significance,” but “does not automatically mean the end of a system.”
➡️ Elle estime aussi que la mort du guide suprême Ali Khamenei constitue “un moment d’une portée historique” mais “ne signifie pas automatiquement la fin d’un système”.
“The government of the Republic of Korea, with grave concern, is closely monitoring the developments in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and is actively undertaking multifaceted efforts to ensure the safety and protection of Korean nationals currently in the region, as well as to safeguard our economic security, including the stable supply of energy resources,” that country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said in a statement.
The government of the Republic of Korea, with grave concern, is closely monitoring the developments in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and is actively undertaking multifaceted efforts to ensure the safety and protection of Korean nationals currently… pic.twitter.com/iyhfpjvOhc
Oil prices climbed on Monday morning as investors assessed the economic impact of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which triggered swift retaliation from Tehran targeting assets in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
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In early trade, the price of a barrel of US benchmark crude initially surged by about 8%. It later traded 5.9% higher at $71.00 per barrel. Brent crude rose 6.2% to $77.38 per barrel.
Traders were betting that oil supplies from Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East could slow or grind to a halt. Attacks across the region, including on two vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf — have restricted countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world.
“Roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) flows squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz. This is not an obscure canal. It is the aorta of the global energy system,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary note.
A prolonged war would likely result in higher prices for other fuels and petrol, and could ripple through the global economy, adding to overall production costs.
Likewise, prolonged interruptions to oil flows through the Middle East would have “huge implications for oil and LNG and every market everywhere if it occurs. Energy is an input to all production,” RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets said in a report.
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China. Beijing may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted — another factor that could push energy prices higher.
However, China has ample oil reserves of up to 1.5 billion barrels and could offset a decline in Iranian oil by increasing imports from Russia, said Michael Langham of Aberdeen Investments.
The attacks had been anticipated, following a significant build-up of US forces in the Middle East, so traders had already adjusted their positions to account for that risk.
In other early trading on Monday, the price of gold — usually viewed as a safe haven in times of uncertainty — rose 2.4% to about $5,371 per ounce.
Elsewhere, futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down about 0.8% by mid-morning in Bangkok.
Asian shares also opened lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 initially fell more than 2%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 1.6% to 26,215.91, while the Shanghai Composite was flat at 4,163.01.
Taiwan’s benchmark index fell 0.6% and Singapore’s dropped 1.9%. In Bangkok, the SET declined 2.1%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3% to 9,173.50.
Feb. 27 (UPI) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Israel Monday and Tuesday to discuss Iran and other issues, the State Department announced Friday.
The visit comes amid concern that the United States will attack Iran, despite continued negotiation between the two. On Thursday, the U.S. embassy in Israel told its staff that they could leave because of “safety risks,” though there is no emergency.
“Persons may wish to consider leaving Israel while commercial flights are available,” the State Department said in its new guidance. “In response to security incidents and without advance notice, the U.S. Embassy may further restrict or prohibit U.S. government employees and their family members from traveling to certain areas of Israel, the Old City of Jerusalem, and the West Bank.”
CNBC reported Friday that Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi will meet Friday with Vice President JD Vance and other officials in Washington for “previously unreported talks in an effort to stave off war with Iran.”
Al-Busaidi has mediated talks between American and Iranian officials to ease tensions over President Donald Trump‘s demands that Iran abandon its nuclear program.
Rubio’s visit to Israel is to “discuss a range of regional priorities including Iran, Lebanon and ongoing efforts to implement President Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan for Gaza,” State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement.
Democrats are speaking out against a potential strike.
“The American people are still waiting for the strategic justification for a war with Iran that puts thousands of American personnel across the region in harm’s way,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said on X. “What is the evidence of an imminent threat?”
Trump said in his State of the Union speech Tuesday that he is still planning to work the differences out diplomatically.
“My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terror — which they are by far — to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., speaks during a press conference after the weekly Republican Senate caucus luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo
From Eduard Cauich: Gerardo Tavárez has been counting down the days for months.
The 25-year-old Los Angeles resident planned the perfect summer for his family.
He will get married on June 6, five days before the start of the World Cup. His honeymoon will be in Mexico, where he will watch the Mexican national team’s debut at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City and a second match between Mexico and South Korea in Guadalajara, alongside his father, brother, future wife and young son.
The plan seemed set in stone. Until this week.
After the Mexican army killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel known as “El Mencho,” violence erupted in the state of Jalisco on Sunday, including roadblocks and vehicle fires. Images of smoke rising over Guadalajara quickly circulated on social media, sowing doubts among some planning to travel to Mexico for the World Cup.
According to Mexican authorities, more than 60 people, including 25 soldiers, died during the operation to capture the criminal leader.
“I’m more than worried. I’m nervous. I’m scared,” said Tavárez, born in Los Angeles to parents from Jalisco and a diehard fan of the Mexican national team.
From Jack Vita: Roki Sasaki took the mound Wednesday, looking to build off the success he enjoyed late last season, as he enters his second year with the Dodgers.
It did not go smoothly, with Sasaki struggling to find the strike zone and getting hit hard by the Arizona Diamondbacks when he did. The 24-year-old right-hander gave up three runs on three hits and two walks. He did record three strikeouts, with his fastball topping out at 98.6 miles per hour, but only 17 of his 36 pitches landed for strikes.
“There were some positive things, but also things I need to work on,” Sasaki said via an interpreter after he was lifted from the Dodgers’ 10-7 win.
Sasaki gave up a hard-hit single to leadoff hitter Geraldo Perdomo, and Tim Tawa walked. With one out, Nolan Arenado hit a line-drive double to left that scored Perdomo. Ildemaro Vargas followed with another double, scoring Tawa and Arenado for a 3-0 lead.
Kara Dunn had 24 points and Jazzy Davidson had 22, but Penn State rallied to defeat the USC women, 85-82 on Wednesday night.
The Trojans led 62-58, early in the fourth quarter and 70-68 with 5:35 to play before Kiyomi McMiller and Moriah Murray made key shots to give Penn State the lead.
Dunn made a season-high six three-pointers and had six rebounds and three assists. Davidson had her 25th consecutive double-figure scoring performance and sixth straight 20-point game. Kennedy Smith had 19 points along with six rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block.
With the loss, USC drops to 17-11 overall and 9-8 in Big Ten play. Wednesday was Penn State’s second win all-time and first win against USC since Jan. 6, 1980.
Vegas scores five goals in third period to defeat Kings
Pavel Dorofeyev had two goals and the Vegas Golden Knights spoiled Artemi Panarin’s Kings debut by scoring five third-period goals to rally for a 6-4 win Wednesday night.
Colton Sissons, Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith scored three goals in a span of 4:14 midway through the third and the short-handed Golden Knights overcame the absence of five players who participated in the gold medal game at the Milan Cortina Olympics on Sunday. Ivan Barbashev added a late empty-netter, and Adin Hill made 15 saves.
Quinton Byfield had two goals, Adrian Kempe and Brandt Clarke scored, while Panarin had two assists in his team debut, but the Kings dropped their fourth straight game.
Joel Quenneville became the second coach in NHL history to win 1,000 games with the Ducks’ 6-5 comeback victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday night.
Quenneville joined Scotty Bowman in an exclusive hockey club with a milestone win in the Ducks’ first game back from the Olympic break.
Cutter Gauthier scored the tiebreaking goal with 1:14 to play for the Ducks, who erased a pair of two-goal deficits. Leo Carlsson had a goal and two assists in his first appearance since Jan. 10 for the Ducks, who have won six straight home games and 10 of 12 overall to leapfrog the Oilers into second place in the Pacific Division.
1935 — Babe Ruth is released by the New York Yankees and signed by the Boston Braves.
1938 — Glenn Cunningham sets a world indoor records in 1,500-meter race at the AAU nationals at New York’s Madison Square Garden. Cunningham finishes in 3:48.4.
1947 — Brothers Doug and Max Bentley lead the Chicago Blackhawks to a 9-7 win over the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Doug Bentley scores four goals and sets up two more goals. Max Bentley scores three goals and assists on another goal.
1960 — Dave Jenkins of the United States wins the figure skating gold medal at the Winter Olympics in Squaw Valley, Calif.
1967 — Mario Andretti, better known for his accomplishments in open-wheel and USAC competition, wins the Daytona 500 pulling away from 1965 champion Fred Lorenzen in the closing laps. It’s Andretti’s his first and only NASCAR Grand National event. He is the only person born outside the United States to win the Daytona 500.
1968 — Thirty-two African nations agree to boycott the Olympics because of the presence of South Africa.
1981 — The Boston Bruins beat the Minnesota North Stars 5-1 in a game marred by fights. The teams set an NHL record with 84 penalties worth 392 minutes, and 12 players are ejected.
1987 — Michael Jordan scores 58 points, the most by a Chicago player in a regular-season game, to lead the Bulls over the New Jersey Nets 128-113. Jordan scores almost half his points from the free-throw line, hitting 26 of 27.
1989 — The Dallas Cowboys fire coach Tom Landry after a 29-year career.
1989 — Pittsburgh’s Mario Lemieux becomes the third NHL player to have 100 assists in a season, joining Bobby Orr and Wayne Gretzky. Lemieux gets three assists and a goal in the Penguins’ 8-6 loss to the Hartford Whalers.
1994 — In Lillehammer, Norway, Vreni Schneider of Switzerland wins the slalom for the fifth medal of her career, the most of any woman in Alpine Olympic history.
2006 — Sweden beats Finland 3-2 to win the Olympic men’s hockey gold. Germany leaves Turin with the most overall medals with 29, 11 of them gold, while the Americans win 25 medals overall, including nine gold.
2007 — Roger Federer reaches a new milestone breaking Jimmy Connors’ 30-year-old mark with his 161st week at the top of the ATP rankings. Connors set his record from July 1974 to August 1977. The ATP rankings began on Aug. 23, 1973. Federer took the No. 1 spot on Feb. 2, 2004.
2012 — Pete Weber wins a record fifth U.S. Open bowling championship, throwing a strike on his final ball to beat Mike Fagan 215-214. Weber surpasses his father, Dick Weber, who won the tournament’s predecessor four times, as did Don Carter.
2012 — In Bansko, Bulgaria, Lindsey Vonn captures her fourth World Cup super-G race of the year and becomes the career leader in the discipline. By winning her 18th super G the American overtakes Austria’s Renate Goetschl for the record.
2017 — 59th Daytona 500: Kurt Busch wins after Kyle Larson runs out of gas on last lap; Jeffrey Earnhardt makes NASCAR history, 1st ever 4th generation driver to compete in Daytona 500.
2018 — The U.S. Open changes to a two-hole aggregate playoff, the last of the four majors to do away with an 18-hole playoff.
2018 — The top-ranked UConn women’s team completes an undefeated regular season for the 10th time in program history with an 82-53 win over No. 20 South Florida. The Huskies (29-0, 16-0 American) are 98-0 in games against American Athletic Conference opponents. They are 86-0 in the regular season and have won all four conference tournaments.
Compiled by the Associated Press
Until next time…
That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.
Parents who lost their son at 14 days old opened up on BBC Breakfast on Thursday (February 26)
Parents who lost their baby opened up on BBC Breakfast(Image: BBC screengrab)
A grieving mum has claimed her concerns were “shut down” as she opened up about the loss of her baby on BBC Breakfast.
Robyn Davis – whose son Orlando died at 14 days old – appeared on the BBC show on Thursday (February 26), where she said that she was made to feel “like I was going insane and that my concerns weren’t valid or real”.
She spoke out during a report about maternity service failings, with host Charlie Stayt explaining: “Maternity services in England are failing too many families with problems at every stage of maternity journey. It’s the interim conclusion of the national review being led by Baroness Amos.”
His fellow presenter Naga Munchetty continued: “It has identified six factors that impact care, including racism, staffing and culture. The health secretary Wes Streeting, who commissioned the review, has promised to act on Baroness Amos’ final recommendations which are due in April.”
The programme then cut to a report from reporter Michael Buchanan, who said: “When an inquiry in 2015 found that 11 babies and one mother had died avoidably at Furness General Hospital due to poor maternity care, the NHS promised the mistakes would never happen again. Over a decade later, more than 10,000 babies are estimated to have died in England due to maternity errors.”
He went on: “Orlando Davis died in 2021 at 14 days old. Maternity staff failed to recognise his mother had become ill in labour and Orlando was born in a poor condition.
“An inquest found his death had been contributed to by neglect.”
Orlando’s mum Robyn said: “They actually made me feel like I was going insane and that my concerns weren’t valid or real because every time I raised them, they were met with a quick shut down. And because of this, I genuinely believe that that’s why our son is not here.”
The baby’s father Jonathan Davis said: “The number of individuals that were involved in this situation, this wasn’t one or two, this was multiple midwives, multiple consultants and registrars across a prolonged area of time from in the community to in hospital. This was not a one event caused an outcome.”
The report said the family’s experience is supported by Baroness Amos, “who says problems occur at every stage of the maternity journey”.
It went on: “The issues, she says, are caused by cultural leadership of maternity units with midwives and obstetricians sometimes not cooperating, workforce with units not being fully or properly staffed, racism and discrimination, including against poor women, a lack of accountability when things go wrong and outdated and dilapidated buildings.”
The report said that the health secretary “has promised to ensure the review’s final recommendations due in April are enacted”.
“But a maternity safety task force that Wes Streeting also promised to establish by now hasn’t yet been created,” it said. “He says it will be shortly.”
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Washington, DC – President Donald Trump has long been fixated on how voting in the United States is administered, claiming without evidence that his 2020 presidential election loss was the result of malfeasance.
Fast forward more than five years, and Trump is set to be in office for one of the most consequential midterm races in recent times.
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It is unclear how the US president might involve himself in the midterms, which will determine whether his Republican Party maintains control over both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The results will decide whether Trump can continue to enact his agenda with relative ease or if he will face congressional pushback at every turn.
The Republican leader’s approach so far appears to be twofold, according to Michael Traugott, a political scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Michigan.
On one hand, Trump has embarked on a messaging campaign to cast doubt on any results that seem unfavourable.
“Part of what the Trump administration is doing is trying to create the impression of fraud and mismanagement in local elections so that they can argue eventually that some outcomes are not legitimate or real or should be discounted,” Traugott told Al Jazeera.
On the other hand, Trump also appears to be conducting a stress test of pre-existing election law, to see how much the federal government can intervene.
“There are actions that he could take or try to take, which would likely be stopped in the courts,” Traugott said.
“The behaviour in the Trump administration is to appeal, appeal, appeal, until it gets to the Supreme Court,” he added. “I imagine that would be their strategy.”
Calls to ‘nationalise’ election administration
Trump has been explicit about his desire to assert more federal control over the election, saying in early February that “Republicans ought to nationalise the voting”.
He pointed to what he described as “horrible corruption on elections” in some parts of the US.
The US Constitution assigns states the power to determine the “times, places and manner” of elections for federal office.
Congress, meanwhile, has the ability to “make or alter” rules related to voting through legislation or, in extreme cases, constitutional amendments.
“It’s important to remember that, in the United States, we don’t really have national elections. We have a series of state and local elections that are held more or less on the same day,” Traugott explained.
The president, meanwhile, has no constitutional role in how elections are administered, beyond signing any legislation Congress passes.
Still, it is possible for a president to leverage executive branch agencies that interact with state election administration. Trump too has explicitly blurred the lines between federal and state power.
In the Oval Office on February 3, he told reporters, “A state is an agent for the federal government in elections. I don’t know why the federal government doesn’t do them anyway.”
His statements were swiftly condemned by voting rights groups.
The League of Women Voters, a voting rights group founded in 1920, called Trump’s remarks a “calculated effort to dismantle the integrity of the electoral system as we know it”.
“Time and again, the President’s claims of widespread fraud have been disproven by nonpartisan election officials, the courts, and the Department of Justice,” it added.
Despite Trump’s claims, voter fraud is exceedingly rare in the US, and any isolated instances typically have little effect on election outcomes.
Even the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank behind the Trump-aligned Project 2025, has documented an inconsequential rate of voter fraud in its catalogue of cases running back to 1982.
An analysis from the centre-left Brookings Institution found that fraudulent votes failed to amount to one ten-thousandth of a percentage point of the ballots cast in states where elections tend to be the closest.
For example, Arizona is a perennial battleground in presidential elections, but it has seen just 36 reported cases of voter fraud since 1982, out of more than 42 million ballots cast. That put the percentage of fraud at 0.0000845, according to the analysis.
Department of Justice pushes boundaries
Nevertheless, the Trump administration has heaped pressure on the Department of Justice to increase its probes into alleged voter fraud.
The attorney general has demanded that 47 states and Washington, DC, a federal district, hand over their complete voter registration lists, according to a tally from the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan policy group.
Eleven states have complied or agreed to comply. The Trump administration has launched lawsuits against the 20 others that refused.
The Department of Justice has also stepped up its cooperation with the Department of Homeland Security to identify non-citizen voters.
Some critics have even accused the Justice Department of deploying coercive tactics to fulfil its demands for state voter information.
On January 24, for instance, US Attorney General Pam Bondi wrote a letter to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz suggesting three “common sense solutions” to “restore the rule of law” in the state.
One of those proposals was to allow the Justice Department to “access voter rolls”.
Bondi’s remarks came after a federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota had turned deadly, resulting in two on-camera shootings of US citizens.
While her letter did not directly offer a quid pro quo – access to the rolls in exchange for ending the crackdown – critics said the message it sent was clear. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, for instance, called the letter tantamount to “blackmail”.
But four days later, on January 28, the Justice Department went even further, seizing voting records and ballots in a raid on an election facility in Fulton County, Georgia.
The state has been a sore point for Trump: Georgia voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in more than two decades during the 2020 race.
At the time, Trump infamously pressured Georgia’s secretary of state to “find more votes” following his loss. He has spread rumours about fraud in Georgia’s election system ever since.
Local officials condemned the January raid as a “flagrant constitutional violation”, saying in a lawsuit that an affidavit submitted by the FBI to obtain a search warrant relied on hypotheticals.
In other words, it failed to establish probable cause that any crime had occurred, Fulton County officials argued.
That affidavit also revealed the investigation was the direct result of a referral from Kurt Olsen, who was appointed to a White House role as Trump’s head of election security in October.
Before entering the White House, Olsen led unsuccessful legal challenges to the 2020 election results, in what Trump dubbed the “Stop the Steal” campaign.
Fulton County officials noted “multiple courts have sanctioned Olsen for his unsubstantiated, speculative claims about elections”.
What is Tulsi Gabbard’s role?
The apparent role of Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, in the election investigations has also raised questions.
Gabbard was present at the Fulton County raid, with Trump later telling reporters that she was “working very hard on trying to keep the election safe”.
Who authorised her presence, however, was the subject of contradictory statements from the Trump administration.
Gabbard said she had been sent on behalf of Trump, even though the president attempted to distance himself from the raid. The Justice Department later said Bondi had requested Gabbard’s presence. Gabbard finally said both Trump and Bondi had asked her to attend.
Whatever the case, Traugott, the political scientist, said that her presence at the scene was highly unusual.
“The director of national intelligence has been associated with observation and information gathering from foreign countries, not from domestic entities,” Traugott explained. “So historically, this is without precedent”.
In a statement, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said he was concerned that Gabbard had exceeded the powers of her office. He said the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, where he is vice chairman, had not been briefed on any “foreign intelligence nexus” related to the Fulton County raid.
Either Gabbard was flouting her responsibility to keep the committee informed, Warner said, or she is “injecting the nonpartisan intelligence community she is supposed to be leading into a domestic political stunt designed to legitimize conspiracy theories that undermine our democracy”.
Gabbard, who is expected to testify before the Senate committee in March, responded in early February that she had been acting under her “broad statutory authority to coordinate, integrate, and analyse intelligence related to election security”.
She maintained her office would “not irresponsibly share incomplete intelligence assessments concerning foreign or other malign interference in US elections”.
Voter ID law
But it’s not just executive agencies like the Department of Justice and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence pushing Trump’s agenda for the midterm races.
Experts say Trump has been angling to use the Republican majorities in Congress to pass restrictive voter laws ahead of November’s election.
Trump has supported a bill, dubbed the SAVE Act, which would require citizens to provide more documentation – such as a passport or a birth certificate – when registering to vote, as well as photo identification when casting a ballot.
Rights groups have long argued that such requirements would disenfranchise some voters who lack access to such materials. As of 2023, the US State Department reported that only 48 percent of US citizens had a valid passport.
The bill would also require states to provide voter lists to the Department of Homeland Security to identify and remove non-citizens, raising concerns about voter privacy.
The legislation, which has been passed by the House, is likely to face an uphill battle in the Senate. It is already illegal for non-citizens to vote.
Even without the legislation, though, Trump has threatened to sign an executive order requiring local election organisers to require voter identification before distributing ballots.
Trump already signed a similar order last March seeking to impose new rules on elections, including voter ID requirements, reviews of electronic voting machines and restrictions on how long votes can be counted.
Nearly all of the provisions have since been blocked by federal judges. The most recent ruling by US District Judge John Chun related to restrictions like tying federal election funding to “proof of citizenship” requirements.
“In granting this relief,” Chun wrote in his decision, “the Court seeks to restore the proper balance of power among the Executive Branch, the states, and Congress envisioned by the Framers.”
