commitment

Based on the words of President Trump, America is well on the way to becoming a “global superpower in manufacturing” — indeed, as he declared in a Father’s Day social media post, we are already experiencing the “BEST ECONOMY EVER.” (Capitalization’s his.)

Here’s what the government’s own statistics tell us: Manufacturing investment has crashed during his watch, with construction spending in the manufacturing sector down 26.4% from Trump’s inauguration through May, to $174.8 billion. That’s the lowest figure since February 2023, when the economy was in the midst of a post-pandemic recovery.

White House spokesman Kush Desai told me by email that “the last two jobs reports” showed manufacturing job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally-adjusted decline of 2,000 manufacturing workers in May and a gain of 3,000 in June. But the June 2026 figure was 38,000 jobs, or about 0.3% below the level in June 2025, and 75,000 or about 0.6% below the level in January 2025, when Trump took office.

Desai said that “thanks to President Trump’s proven agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts, American manufacturing will continue to rebound.”

There’s little mystery about what has come between Trump’s ambition and the real world. To a large extent it’s Trump’s economic program, particularly his tariff policies and, more recently, his war with Iran. Those have injected a level of uncertainty for corporate managements pondering whether to spend money on expansion that they haven’t had to confront in years.

The tariffs and the war have driven up manufacturers’ costs for raw materials and overseas shipping. The general economic atmosphere doesn’t help. U.S. gross domestic product growth came in at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, but the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects it to have fallen to 1.3% in the second quarter ended June 30.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index reached 44.8 in May, its lowest level ever (though it improved to 49.5 in June). Wages have been rising modestly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but those gains have been eaten up by higher prices, especially for gasoline and food.

To put things another way, the actual figures show the U.S. economy to be sputtering, and the “vibe economy” as measured by consumer confidence is doing even worse.

Now that Trump’s second term is about to reach its 18-month mark, let’s unpack the factors causing the discrepancy between his ambitions and claims, and the reality.

Trump declared economic victory just as his term was starting. On March 20, 2025, he proclaimed a “manufacturing renaissance” in the U.S. That was based on what he said were “trillions of dollars in new investments” he had “already secured in tech-based manufacturing.”

A White House statement said “the list of manufacturing wins is endless.” The provided list was a roster of announcements, not groundbreakings, much less completed ventures.

Business executives quite properly have taken these pledges with mounds of salt. “Announcements are what people say they’re going to do, but dollars spent is what’s actually happening,” Didi Caldwell, chief executive of a firm that helps companies find factory sites, told the Financial Times. “From where we’re standing, we are not seeing signs of a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S.”

Indeed, at least some of these announcements have had the flavor of performative efforts to satisfy Trump’s amour propre and extract government concessions.

For example, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook appeared with Trump at the White House in August to announce a $600-billion U.S. spending plan to take place over four years. That was a $100-billion increase over its previously-announced program.

More to the point, however, it incorporated spending with suppliers that Apple had been working with for years. Mentioned in the news announcement was a commitment to buy cover glass for iPhones from Corning. But Corning has been supplying that glass since the first iPhone appeared in 2007. In any case, the announcement appeared to secure a commitment from Trump to exempt Apple from tariffs imposed on imported chips.

Apple’s announcement Wednesday that it will spend $30 billion to buy chips from Broadcom was similarly ambiguous. The announcement didn’t provide details about the terms of the commitment or the timing of its expenditures. I asked Apple for details and whether the deal was related to a desire to remain in Trump’s favor, but didn’t hear back.

A similar phenomenon occurred during Trump’s first term; Trump had built much of his 2016 presidential campaign on a promise to increase manufacturing jobs in the United States. He blamed shrinkage in the manufacturing sector on trade agreements such as NAFTA and the policies of the Chinese, and took credit when an American manufacturer agreed to create or save jobs in the United States.

As I reported in 2019, many of those arrangements turned out to be exaggerated or bogus, or predated Trump’s claim. Some disappeared as soon as public attention turned elsewhere, or were outweighed by job cuts made elsewhere by the same companies.

Trump’s tariffs appear to have had a direct effect on manufacturing employment in the U.S. Since Trump’s inauguration, the manufacturing sector has shed about 75,000 jobs, or 0.6%. After April 2, 2025, when he announced global “liberation day” tariffs supposedly as a response to years of unfair treatment of American exports, the decline picked up pace, with a shrinkage of 68,000 manufacturing jobs.

The Supreme Court invalidated those tariffs in February, but others are still in place, including tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and on goods from China. Nor has he ceased threatening partners with trade wars. As recently as Tuesday, he said he would cut off all trade with Spain because of that country’s disagreement with him over its defense spending and its criticism of his Iran war.

As it happens, Spain is one of the few countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus. That means that any cutoff, which trade experts think will be unlikely, would come at a cost to the U.S.

One might have hoped that Trump had learned a lesson from his first-term trade war with China. That conflict provoked a sharp contraction in the manufacturing economy, with the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index falling to 49.1 by mid-2019. (A reading below 50 signifies contraction.)

The ISM index began to recover toward the end of Trump’s term but fell again during the pandemic. Lately it has been falling again, to 53.3 in June from 54 in May.

The Iran war is another deadweight on domestic manufacturing. That’s partially the consequence of blockages of the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial thoroughfare not only for middle eastern oil, but also for such industrial inputs as fertilizer and aluminum. Cement, concrete, olive oil and spices are also among commodities produced in the region that use the strait as an outlet to reach the outside world.

Uncertainties in the region, tensions between the U.S. and China, and heightened concerns over the safety of shipping overall have driven up shipping costs between the far east and the U.S. The price of shipping a benchmark 40-foot container from China to the West Coast has nearly quadrupled to $6,687 now from about $1,700 just before the Iran war began, according to an index maintained by the cargo firm Freightos — even though shipping prices typically decline during this time of year.

There can be little doubt that the U.S. would benefit from an industrial policy — if it’s coherent. China supplanted America as the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods in 2010, and the gap has only widened since then. China’s dominance may be hard to reverse, as it’s built on lower labor costs and transport infrastructure that enjoys focused government investment.

Tariffs could be a component of a new industrial policy, but Trump’s tariffs aren’t rationally geared to protecting domestic industries that need protection. They’re expressions of his whims, and as such they’re totally ineffective. If there are government investment policies targeting industries that need assistance, they’re not apparent to economists or industrialists.

Trump can talk as much as he likes about a golden age for U.S. manufacturing, but from his first term through this one, it’s nothing but talk. And talk, of course, is cheap.

July 7 (UPI) — Leaders of the Western world’s premier military alliance will gather in Ankara on Tuesday for the start of this year’s NATO summit, with support for Ukraine and questions over U.S. President Donald Trump‘s commitment to the pact expected to dominate the two-day meeting.

The summit in Turkey’s capital is formally focused on reviewing progress made since last year, when the leaders of NATO’s 32 members agreed to raise their annual defense-related spending from the previous 2% target to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035 amid growing global security concerns.

Major new policy pronouncements are not expected, though several large arms deals are. The focus of the two-day summit will be on progress toward that defense-investment plan and how allies intend to spend the money to increase weapons production, cooperation and joint procurement.

Attention will also be on Trump and the U.S. commitment to NATO after his administration announced earlier this year that it would withdraw some American troops from Germany.

Long a demand of Trump’s, the increase in defense spending has done little to curb the American president’s long-held criticism of the alliance, which has intensified since NATO allies offered limited support for the U.S. war against Iran.

Trump departed Maryland’s Joint Base Andrews aboard Air Force One for Turkey a little after 9:40 EDT Monday, with State Secretary Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a number of aides with him.

Trump is expected to meet with Zelensky during the summit.

The two spoke Saturday, according to the Ukrainian leader, who said he called the U.S. president to congratulate him on the United States’ Independence Day.

“We are grateful to the United States for all the assistance we have received — from Javelins and Patriots to political support — and we deeply value that America stands by us in defending our independence,” he said online, adding that they had discussed the situation in the Ukraine-Russia war.

“We have agreed to continue these discussions during the NATO Summit in Ankara,” he said.

On the eve of the Fourth of July, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for nearly 90 minutes, according to the Kremlin, which said in a statement that they discussed “the Ukrainian settlement, including in light of Donald Trump’s upcoming participation in the NATO Summit.”

The Kremlin said Putin framed the current situation of the war as Russia “steadily advancing” despite Ukraine making recent gains and expanding its long-range attacks.

However, Russia has been targeting Kyiv with massive attacks leading up to the summit. Zelensky has been calling on allies for additional long-range weaponry, or the ability to produce the arms themselves, arguing that if Ukraine can batter Moscow how the Kremlin has been hitting Kyiv, an end to the war could be rapidly secured.

“We have proven to all our partners both the need, and more importantly, the possibility of providing greater protection of lives,” Zelensky said in a Monday statement.

“It is simply nonsensical that, in today’s world, production has still not been scaled up to the level that is actually needed to protect people from ballistic terror. We have long made the case that we are capable of producing such defensive weapons ourselves. If Ukraine were granted U.S. licenses to produce Patriots, our own production would be sufficient both to protect Ukraine and to help partners in need.”

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Monday night that Russian forces were likely timing these large-scale strikes to send a political message ahead of the summit.

There have been dozens of football transfers in Southern California during the offseason, but the one transfer who could make the greatest impact is running back AJ McBean, who announced he was leaving Mira Costa High for Gardena Serra.

McBean, who ran 10.55 seconds in the 100 meters this spring thanks to Mira Costa’s track program and his commitment to getting faster, joins a Serra offense that returns all five starters on the offensive line. He’s got the speed and strength to help the Cavaliers make up for not reaching the Southern Section playoffs last season out of the extremely competitive Mission League.

He’s been a longtime resident of Hermosa Beach, so what would motivate him to leave Mira Costa after recently making a commitment to Stanford? He apparently wants to prepare for college by being used in a more versatile role catching passes out of the backfield to show off his many skills. At least that’s what his family told coach Scott Altenberg. Mira Costa was changing its offense to better feature him, so it’s a tough loss for the Mustangs.

McBean will have to move to become eligible immediately.

Hope at Whittier

Former Garfield coach Lorenzo Hernandez, in his first season at Whittier, has already discovered a talent he can’t wait to develop. Offensive and defensive lineman Joseph Medina from the class of 2028 has made quite a first impression on Hernandez.

Medina didn’t play last season, “and in three months that we have been here, he is off the charts,” Hernandez said.

Hernandez calls him “a great technician and amazing leader.”

Agoura QB depth

Never has coach Dustin Croick of Agoura had more quality depth at quarterback than what he will have this season thanks to two newcomers.

Junior Kris Carranza has transferred from Sierra Canyon to Agoura and is a top candidate to start. The Chargers are also adding incoming freshman quarterback Emerson Andrews, whose father, David, played tight end at Ohio State and was a member of the 2002 national championship team. He is director of athletic performance for UCLA’s men’s basketball program. If anyone has a strength and conditioning question, submit it to Emerson, who knows someone.

Commitments rolling in

With college recruiters headed on vacation, lots of players decided to make commitments to make sure they have a “certain” destination. There’s also a new trend of players announcing on social media posts that they are “shutting down” their recruitment, which is supposed to mean their decision is final. Then how come others keep recruiting them? Because it’s never final in this era of NIL.

Quarterback Chris Fields, the City Section player of the year from Carson, committed to Georgetown. Offensive lineman Micah Butler from Hamilton committed to Sacramento State. Kicker Gabriel Goroyan of Westlake committed to Stanford. Defensive back Wesley Ace from Gardena Serra committed to San Jose State. Safety Jaden Walk-Green from Corona Centennial has committed to Washington and teammate Brett Smith has committed to UNLV. Running back Kamden Tillis of Los Alamitos has committed to San Diego State.

Man among boys

USC recruiters deserve praise for identifying the best in Southern California and pursuing them with great intensity. There’s no doubt that Damien safety Gavin Williams, a USC commit, will be the standard for excellence this coming season. He’s fast and strong and players who don’t adjust to his physical skills are in for a surprise.

Damien won the Chaminade seven-on-seven passing tournament on Saturday, beating Crespi in the final. On the first play, Williams caught a long touchdown pass, sprinting well past the defender who had no idea how fast he runs.

First-year coaches galore

It’s going to be fun tracking the progress of first-year football coaches this season because there are so many at well-known programs. The question of who will have the best record should be debated all summer.

Iggy Porchia became the latest new hire, replacing his mentor, the late Angelo Gasca, at Venice.

There should be a competition on which new private coach will have the best record and which new public school coach will have the best record. There are so many candidates with new coaches at JSerra, Orange Lutheran, Servite, Los Alamitos, St. Francis, St. Bernard, Bishop Montgomery, Oaks Christian, Whittier Christian, Bishop Alemany, Muir, Pasadena, Long Beach Poly, Arroyo, North Hollywood, Sun Valley Poly and on it goes.

Transfer issues coming

It appears the Southern Section will be busy again this fall after last year’s eligibility scandal when it declared 19 transfer students ineligible at Bishop Montgomery, resulting in the varsity season ending after one game and forcing the Archdiocese of Los Angeles to clean up what looked like a preventable mess.

This time, it could be public schools facing scrutiny. The same rumors that started last summer about schools loading up on transfers are circulating again this summer. Principals who don’t act after multiple transfers seemingly out of nowhere start showing up to play football only have themselves to blame.

And schools that delay submitting transfer paperwork until the last minute thinking investigators will be too busy to spot an error don’t understand the process.

City Section commissioner Vicky Lagos has a policy that she immediately schedules a meeting with the administration, athletic director, coach and parents when one school receives multiple transfers to review paperwork. The Southern Section deployed AI last fall to help it catch parents submitting false information.

So prepare for more exciting times. It’s like a cat-and-mouse game. And don’t forget about the anonymous emails identifying parents not living at the official address they put on their transfer paperwork.

WASHINGTON — President Trump said Sunday that the United States and Iran have reached a framework agreement to end the war in the Middle East, a breakthrough in months of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.

The deal, described by diplomats as a memorandum of understanding, commits Tehran to forgo the development or acquisition of nuclear weapons in exchange for helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the paced release of its assets frozen overseas, upon the signing of the deal Friday in Switzerland.

Trump said he has also authorized “the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade” on Iranian imports.

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote in a social media post Sunday evening. It was the president’s 80th birthday.

The full details of the agreement have not been released. Many details — including how Tehran would give up, destroy or dilute its fissile material, or whether Iran would continue treating the international strait as its sovereign waters — will continue to be negotiated in the coming days.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Sunday that mediators are planning to hold a series of meetings this week to “lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.”

“We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict,” Sharif wrote in a post on X.

The Associated Press reported that negotiations on outstanding issues like Iran’s nuclear program would continue over the next 60 days, according to two senior Pakistani officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the White House is “still figuring out the logistics” on whether he or Trump will attend the signing ceremony.

“What we know is that we have a lot of work to do, but a very big win for the American people tonight,” Vance said.”We are just going to keep on working at it, keep on driving energy prices down, keep on ensuring that region of the world is less than a basket case and finally, and most importantly, celebrate, that we can say with confidence Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the agreement on state television but said Iran would not start implementing it until it was signed on Friday. He said the deal followed over 14 hours of talks in Tehran with a representative from Qatar, another mediator.

Iranian state TV showed a banner asserting: “US was forced to sign an agreement to end the war.”

Iran’s commitment to refrain from pursuing nuclear weapons would simply repeat a vow Iran has made several times before, including in its signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its nuclear deal brokered with international powers under the Obama administration over 10 years ago.

Iran has 972 pounds of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Under the 2015 international agreement with Iran abandoned by the first Trump administration, Iran’s uranium enrichment was capped at less than 4%, monitored by IAEA inspectors.

The vagueness of the new agreement, the demand for further negotiations to flesh out its details, and the pacing of sanctions relief for Iran are all likely to draw criticism of the president, who launched his political career in 2015 by attacking President Obama’s newly signed nuclear deal as a historically bad agreement.

That deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, followed two years of painstaking negotiations that were predicated on a similar, yet more detailed framework, called the JCPOA.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a Sunday morning interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that the the difference between the JCPOA and how the Trump administration is handling negotiations is the “threat of military force.”

“The huge difference is we did this from a position of strength,” Hegseth said. “That military might will stay as long as necessary.”

And, as in 2015, Israeli leadership across the political aisle remains deeply skeptical of the agreement, pronouncing they will not be bound by a deal to which they are not a party.

In a phone interview with the New York Times on Sunday afternoon, Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, a “very difficult guy.”

“To be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this. Because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours,” Trump said.

Since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that started the war Feb. 28, there have been 3,468 confirmed deaths in Iran, according to independent monitors. In addition, 13 U.S. service members have been killed, and the Israeli war with Hezbollah has killed 2,679 in Lebanon as well as 23 Israelis, including eight civilians.

The Directors Guild of America’s national board on Friday unanimously recommended its membership vote in favor of a four-year contract with the major studios that would increase wages, boost contributions to its health plan and establish guardrails surrounding AI technology.

“We entered this negotiation with three main priorities: secure our Health Plan, protect jobs, and ensure that our members remain secure as AI continues to impact our industry,” DGA President Christopher Nolan said in a statement. “We succeeded in these areas and gained in many others.”

Under the proposed contract, major studios would increase their contributions to the DGA’s health plan by 24.4% over four years, the largest since the plan was founded. In return, the DGA would recommend changes to its plan’s trustees including “modest” increases to the eligibility threshold and annual premiums, the DGA said on Friday.

The contract also increases minimum salaries for most jobs by 2.5% in the first year and up 3% for each of the following years in the agreement. Directors of network non-prime time strip dramatic programs will see their minimum salaries increase 2.5% for each year under the agreement.

The union, which represents more than 19,500 directors and members of directorial teams in areas such as film, commercials and news, said the agreement helps the union’s push for a federal production incentive. Hollywood creatives believe such a benefit could prevent U.S. entertainment jobs from moving overseas where production costs can be significantly lower. The proposed agreement secures a commitment that most senior management at the major studios represented by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers “would engage in meaningful advocacy for a federal production incentive above and beyond the ongoing lobbying efforts of the Motion Picture Association,” according to the DGA.

The contract also adds more guardrails to AI technology, including treating footage created by artificial intelligence as the same as footage shot by a camera, meaning it will still be under the director’s control, according to the DGA. Major studios will also be required to notify the DGA if an employer decides to license a director’s work to train a generative AI system to create new work, the union said. The agreement also establishes an employer-funded program to enhance directors’ AI skills.

“With these gains, a four-year Agreement was both appropriate and necessary to provide stability and potential for growth at a moment when the industry has been experiencing contraction,” Nolan said in a note to members on Friday.

DGA and AMPTP reached the tentative contract earlier this week. At that time, AMPTP said “we appreciate the hard work and commitment of our guild partners in achieving a fair deal that helps advance a stable and successful entertainment industry.”

DGA members will have until June 25 at 5 p.m. to vote on the plan. If approved, the contract would go into effect July 1 and run through June 30, 2030.

There’s been speculation for years when club sports, travel ball and showcases might make education-based high school sports obsolete or irrelevant.

The showdown is finally happening.

Ganesha High’s baseball team qualified to play in the Southern Section Division 2 championship game on Saturday against Loyola in Rancho Cucamonga, but the San Gabriel Valley Tribune reported that several players and possibly their head coach, Jared Sandler, might not show up if they participate in a baseball camp in Mississippi.

Bring it on. No more playing around. Let everyone know the expectations of being part of the California Interscholastic Federation. When you agree to play in the playoffs, you can’t just decide to leave without notice. Teams and players have dreamed of playing in a championship game. Then one team wants to make a mockery of the final, Ganesha, by using backups.

The YULA and Shalhavet baseball teams were banned from participating in this year’s Southern Section playoffs and placed on probation for pulling out in the middle of the 2025 playoffs to participate in a Jewish baseball tournament in Ohio.

The Southern Section has many options on how to proceed if Ganesha goes through with its decision to violate its commitment to the playoffs, from a postseason ban to removing the school from CIF membership.

In Northern California when a tennis team decided to send its JV team for the regional playoffs, sanctions were imposed. The same penalties might be applied by the Southern Section if it happens in the section championship game.

Ron Nocetti, the executive director of the CIF, said Friday, “We were made aware of this and any decision the Southern Section makes in this matter we support.”

Let’s have this showdown. Let’s see if the Pomona Unified School District, which pays thousands of dollars to support its schools’ athletic program, is going to act and stop this nonsense. Ganesha previously was in the news because many of its players live outside the district and participate through online classes, making the baseball team as close to a travel-ball team as you can get.

As of late Friday afternoon, a Ganesha representative said that most of the players and coach were expected to participate in the championship game.

Ronald Gonzales-Lawrence, director, governmental relations for the Pomona Unified School District, released the following statement:

“At this time, circumstances surrounding Saturday’s CIF Southern Section championship game have been resolved, and Ganesha High School will participate in the championship game as scheduled.

“Questions regarding CIF bylaws, eligibility requirements, championship scheduling decisions are best directed to the CIF Southern Section.

“We are aware of questions regarding travel-related expenses associated with this matter. The district is providing transportation and support for student participation in the CIF Southern Section championship game consistent with its normal practices for student activities and athletic competition. The district is not funding flights, hotel accommodations, or any other expenses associated with the separate out-of-state event.

“The district remains committed to supporting our student-athletes and ensuring compliance with all applicable CIF, district, and school requirements.”