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Investment in computing infrastructure to support artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the cloud computing market, and Oracle (ORCL -0.32%) might be the best cloud stock to bet on. Its focus on offering the greatest customer flexibility and processing speeds for AI applications is driving accelerating growth that could send the stock higher.

Image source: Getty Images.

World-class AI companies are choosing Oracle

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure (OCI) segment posted a revenue increase of 55% year over year last quarter, up from 52% in the previous quarter. Oracle signed deals with multiple tech giants, including ChatGPT’s OpenAI, sending its remaining performance obligations up 359% year over year to $455 billion.

These results show demand for AI training, inference, and data analytics is accelerating, and Oracle is in pole position. It has become the go-to cloud provider for AI workloads. Oracle’s customers can run its cloud services on other platforms from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, providing the utmost flexibility.

The spike in remaining performance obligations shows Oracle’s ability to scale rapidly. Leading AI companies are choosing Oracle to train their AI models due to its ability to build large data centers that are faster and more cost-efficient than any of its competitors.

Analysts expect Oracle’s earnings to grow 15% annually in the coming years, but these estimates have been trending up. Management expects its cloud infrastructure business to reach $144 billion in revenue in four years, up from $18 billion this year. This should support more gains for Oracle investors.

For the 79th year, mariachi musicians, waving Mexican flags and shouts of “Viva Mexico,” flooded Cesar Chavez Avenue in East Los Angeles on Sunday for the annual Mexican Independence Day parade and celebration.

But this year, in the face of the Trump administration’s relentless immigration crackdown — recently bolstered by the Supreme Court decision that allows federal agents to restart their controversial “roving patrols” across Southern California — there was a renewed sense of defiance, and of pride.

For many, it was even more important to show up. To stand tall.

“We’re here and we’re going to continue fighting for our rights and for others who cannot fight for themselves,” Samantha Robles, 21, said as she watched the parade roll by. “I’m happy that many people are here so they can raise their flags — just not the Mexican flag, but also the American flag, because we’re both Mexican American.”

Members of the Mexican Consulate in Los Angeles hold a Mexican flag at the East L.A. Mexican Independence Day Parade & Festival on Cesar Chavez Avenue on Sunday in Los Angeles.

(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times)

But the parade was also a bittersweet moment for Robles. This year, her grandmother opted to stay home, given ongoing sweeping immigration raids across the region. A new Supreme Court ruling authorized U.S. immigration agents to stop and detain anyone they might suspect is in the U.S. illegally, even if based on little more than their job at a car wash, speaking Spanish or having brown skin. Immigration rights attorneys and local leaders have denounced that as discriminatory and dangerous, and it has stoked fears in Robles, who describes herself as an East L.A. native.

“I have my brown skin, I have my Indigenous features,” Robles said. “I’m afraid not just for myself, [but] for my friends who are also from Mexico and they came here for more opportunities, for a higher education. … I’m afraid for those who are getting taken away from their families.”

The Comité Mexicano Civico Patriotico Inc., which organized Sunday’s parade and celebration, addressed those fears in a press conference on Friday, but decided to move ahead with its celebration of Mexican independence from Spain, as it has done so in September for decades.

That decision seemed to drive a sense of proud resistance on Sunday.

“Aqui estamos y no nos vamos!” (“We are here and we are not leaving!”) yelled Rosario Marín, the former mayor of Huntington Park and the parade’s madrina, or godmother.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass holds TJ’s parrot Pepe Hermon at the East L.A. Mexican Independence Day Parade & Festival on Sunday in Los Angeles.

(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times)

When Mayor Karen Bass rode by the crowd, she read aloud a sign from the sidewalk that said: “Trump Must Go!”

The crowd cheered.

“I was just reading the sign,” she said, with a smile on her face. But Bass reiterated her support for her Latino constituents, and her opposition to the ongoing immigration raids, calling them horrible.

“Our city stands united,” Bass told the crowd. “We are a city of immigrants. We understand that 50% of our city is Latino, and the idea that Latinos would be targeted is abhorrent.”

The Trump administration has insisted its immigration actions are merely an attempt to enforce the law, and has blasted Bass and other city leaders for stoking resistance. But many Latino leaders say the administration’s use of force is an abuse of power, stoking fears that have hurt people and the region’s economy.

Alfonso Fox Orozco wears traditional Mexican dress at the East L.A. Parade & Festival on Sunday in Los Angeles.

(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times)

Such concerns may have affected Sunday’s parade, which seemed less attended than prior years. Anti-Trump and Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE signs, lined the street. Organizations such as the United Teachers Los Angeles yelled out “La migra no, la escuela si.” (“No immigration enforcement, yes schools!”)

Jenny Hernandez, a fifth-generation East L.A. resident, held up a homemade sign that read “Crush ICE.” The 51-year-old has been disturbed by the recent raids, many of which have targeted individuals in the workplace.

“What they’re doing is wrong,” she said. “We are not criminals. We’re Mexican, Hispanic, Latino, Chicano, whatever you want to call it…. We do not deserve this treatment.… There needs to be a change.”

La Catrina Andante sits atop a car in traditional face paint at the parade Sunday in Los Angeles.

(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times)

But mostly, the day emanated Latino joy, unseen in recent months. Burnt sage filled the air at one intersection, courtesy of a Danza Azteca group, while attendees — some in traditional embroidered dresses and shirts — relished the cumbia song blasting from a nearby radio.

A young girl, no more than 5 years old, belted out a call for “fresas” alongside her mother, a street vendor. A grandmother sat with her lap covered in a blanket, knitted with the colors of the Mexican flag. Politicians, teenagers, dancers and charros, or men riding dancing horses, shouted, “Viva Mexico!”

Girls dressed as vendors from Patzcuaro, Michoacan, balance on pots at the East L.A. Parade & Festival Sunday in Los Angeles.

(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Times)

Other ethnic groups joined the popular celebration, including waves of Puerto Ricans, Bolivians and Salvadorans. Notable faces included Snow Tha Product and Real 92.3 FM radio host Big Boy, who at one point took the reins as an elotero vendor. Space shuttle astronaut José M. Hernández led the parade as grand marshal. , His journey from migrant farmworker to NASA astronaut was detailed in the Amazon Prime film “A Million Miles Away.”

Giselle Salgado, also an East L.A. native, said it was important to see a good turnout from her community, as well as from public officials, though she noticed a smaller crowd this year.

“We’re not afraid,” she said. “This is our tradition, we’ve always come out here. … I’m sure a lot of people are scared, but they’re still here. We’re not going to let fear and intimidation work against us.”

Growing up, Al Roker loved animation. His Saturday mornings were devoted to Bugs Bunny and Road Runner, and he would spend hours studying Preston Blair’s book on how to draw cartoons. He dreamed of becoming an animator for Walt Disney. But when he grew up and became the “Today” weatherman instead, he had the idea to combine his love of weather with his love of animation into a children’s TV series.

“Weather Hunters,” premiering Monday on PBS Kids, follows 8-year-old Lily Hunter (Tandi Fomukong) as she, her younger brother, Benny (Lorenzo Ross) and her older sister, Corky (Kapri Ladd), investigate the weather with the help of their parents, Dot (Holly Robinson Peete) and Al (Roker). The children in the series are based on Roker’s own three children: Courtney, Leila and Nick. And in a case of art fondly imitating life, Roker’s Al Hunter is a local weatherman with a penchant for dad jokes.

“This really is one of those instances where everything that you love in your life comes together,” Roker says. “The show reflects what my childhood was. My parents were very supportive of their children and what their dreams were.”

Roker has been developing the show since his now-adult children were the ages the Hunter kids are in the series. “Good things come to those who wait,” he says with a laugh.

“This is a real passion project for him,” says Sara DeWitt, senior vice president and general manager of PBS Kids. 
“We love to have a creator who is so excited about getting kids interested in the world.”

For PBS Kids, a series rooted in weather exploration was a natural extension to its current slate of programming. “Weather plays such a big part of kids’ lives,” DeWitt says. “What should I wear today? What if it rains and I can’t do the thing I was planning to do? Where does that thunder come from? It just immediately opened up so many ideas and possibilities for us about ways we could really connect with families and get them more excited about the scientific topic.”

“Weather Hunters” centers on Lily Hunter and her family, which includes her father, Al, who, like Roker, is a weatherman.

(Weather Hunters Inc.)

Over the course of the first 10 episodes, all of which will premiere digitally on PBS Kids at launch, Lily and her family will investigate things like fog, clouds, leaves changing colors, thunderstorms, snow and the moving rocks of the desert. Sara Sweetman, an associate professor at University of Rhode Island, is an educational advisor for the series. “Weather is such fantastic content because it is very relevant to the kids’ lives,” she says. “They understand why it’s important and how it impacts them.”

But weather science, like all science, can get complex pretty quickly. “I was really adamant that there’d be one takeaway message [in each episode],” Sweetman says. “What we really want is [for] kids to watch the show and then run into the kitchen to find their dad or their mom and say, ‘Guess what?’ and be able to state that one idea really clearly.”

Sweetman was involved in each 22-minute episode from the very first pitch. “The ideal situation for educational media is that we hit the learning moment at the same moment as the emotional arc of the story,” she says. “We know from research when we can do that, that kids take that meaning away and hold on to it.”

Peete, the voice of Dot, has been friends with Roker for years. She starred in Hallmark’s “Morning Show Mysteries,” which Roker produced and was based on Roker’s novels. For Peete, whose father, Matthew Robinson Jr., was the original Gordon on “Sesame Street,” starring in the series is a “full-circle moment.” “PBS just meant so much to me,” she says. “It’s one thing for your dad to be on TV. It’s nothing for your dad to be on like the best TV children’s TV show ever. I wish my dad could see that I was actually on PBS doing this type of show with Al. He would be very, very proud that I would continue this legacy of children’s entertainment and education.”

Executive producer and showrunner Dete Meserve says animation allows the series, which is aimed at children ages 5 to 8, to have flights of fancy like the flying mobile weather station known as the Vansformer that the family explores in combined with “reality-based scientific explanations for what’s happening.” The episode on clouds explains how even though Benny can no longer see the sun behind the clouds, the sun is still there.

All kids are scientists, says Meserve, and it’s particularly nice that the character at the center of this series is a young girl interested in science. “There’s research that shows that if she can see it, she can be it,” Meserve says. “And Lily is surrounded by her siblings who have an equal interest, but the way they interact with it is different. Corky wants to film and document it. And then you have Benny, who’s more the artistic part of it. He wants to draw.”

The show also seeks to make some weather phenomena like hurricanes or thunderstorms less scary by helping the young audience understand the science behind what is happening. “We’re explaining what it is and how it works,” Roker says. “Kids can feel some sense of empowerment. In the show we talk about, how do we, as a family, prepare? How do we protect ourselves? How do we keep ourselves safe?”

Throughout the series Lily will form hypotheses and test them to see if the facts fit what she originally thought. “Those are all things that I think the show excels at — helping create those skills for critical thinking that kids can take forward as they get older,” Roker says.

He also hopes children walk away with a sense of the true beauty of weather. “There’s really this magic that happens around us,” he says. “And it’s based in science.”

Israel’s elite cyber-intelligence unit stored vast volumes of intercepted Palestinian phone calls on Microsoft’s cloud servers, according to a joint investigation by The Guardian, +972 Magazine and Local Call.

The surveillance system, operational since 2022, was built by Unit 8200, the Israeli military’s secretive intelligence branch. It enables the unit to collect and retain recordings of millions of daily phone calls from Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

The revelations initially reported on Wednesday stem from leaked Microsoft documents and testimonies from 11 sources, including from Israeli military intelligence and the company.

According to the leaks, a large amount of the data appeared to be stored on Microsoft’s Azure servers located in the Netherlands and Ireland, the Guardian reported.

Three sources from Unit 8200 said that the cloud-based system helped guide deadly air strikes and shaped operations across the occupied Palestinian territories.

Microsoft said that CEO Satya Nadella, who met with Unit 8200’s commander Yossi Sariel in 2021, was unaware of the nature of the data to be stored. The company has said an internal review found “no evidence to date” that Azure or its artificial intelligence (AI) tools were “used to target or harm people”.

The revelations come after the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory, Francesca Albanese, issued a report mapping the corporations aiding Israel in its occupation and war on Gaza.

The report noted that Microsoft, which has operated in Israel since 1991, has built its largest hub outside the US in Israel and began integrating its technologies across the country’s military, police, prisons, schools, and settlements.

Since 2003, the company has deepened ties with Israeli defence, acquiring surveillance and cybersecurity start-ups and embedding its systems in military operations. In 2024, an Israeli colonel called cloud technologies such as those offered by Microsoft “a weapon in every sense”.

The Guardian reported that internal records at Microsoft showed that Nadella offered support for Sariel’s aim to move large volumes of military intelligence into the cloud.

A Microsoft statement cited by the Guardian said it “is not accurate” to say he provided his personal support for the project.

Microsoft engineers later worked closely with Israeli intelligence to embed security features within Azure, enabling the transfer of up to 70 percent of Unit 8200’s sensitive data to the platform.

While Israeli officials claim the technology helps thwart attacks, Unit 8200 sources said the system collects communications indiscriminately, which are often used to detain or blackmail Palestinians. “When they need to arrest someone and there isn’t a good enough reason … that’s where they find the excuse,” one source was cited as saying.

Some sources alleged the stored data had been used to justify detentions and even killings.

The system’s expansion coincided with a broader shift in Israeli surveillance, moving from targeted tracking to bulk monitoring of the Palestinian population. One AI-driven tool reportedly assigns risk scores to text messages based on certain trigger words, including discussions of weapons or martyrdom.

Sariel, who resigned in 2024 after Israel’s intelligence failure on October 7, 2023, had long championed cloud-based surveillance.

As Israel’s war on Gaza continues, with more than 61,250 Palestinians killed, including 18,000 children, the surveillance programme remains active. Sources said the existing data, combined with AI tools, continues to be used in military operations.

Microsoft claimed it had “no information” about the specific data stored by Unit 8200.

Indonesia’s Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki has begun erupting again – at one point shooting an ash cloud 18km (11mi) into the sky – as residents flee their homes once more.

There have been no reports of casualties since Monday morning, when the volcano on the island of Flores began spewing ash and lava again. Authorities have placed it on the highest alert level since an earlier round of eruptions three weeks ago.

At least 24 flights to and from the neighbouring resort island of Bali were cancelled on Monday, though some flights had resumed by Tuesday morning.

The initial column of hot clouds that rose at 11:05 (03:05 GMT) Monday was the volcano’s highest since November, said geology agency chief Muhammad Wafid.

“An eruption of that size certainly carries a higher potential for danger, including its impact on aviation,” Wafid told The Associated Press.

Monday’s eruption, which was accompanied by a thunderous roar, led authorities to enlarge the exclusion zone to a 7km radius from the central vent. They also warned of potential lahar floods – a type of mud or debris flow of volcanic materials – if heavy rain occurs.

The twin-peaked volcano erupted again at 19:30 on Monday, sending ash clouds and lava up to 13km into the air. It erupted a third time at 05:53 on Tuesday at a reduced intensity.

Videos shared overnight show glowing red lava spurting from the volcano’s peaks as residents get into cars and buses to flee.

More than 4,000 people have been evacuated from the area so far, according to the local disaster management agency.

Residents who have stayed put are facing a shortage of water, food and masks, local authorities say.

“As the eruption continues, with several secondary explosions and ash clouds drifting westward and northward, the affected communities who have not been relocated… require focused emergency response efforts,” say Paulus Sony Sang Tukan, who leads the Pululera village, about 8km from Lewotobi Laki-laki.

“Water is still available, but there’s concern about its cleanliness and whether it has been contaminated, since our entire area was blanketed in thick volcanic ash during yesterday’s [eruptions],” he said.

Indonesia sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” where tectonic plates collide, causing frequent volcanic activity as well as earthquakes.

Lewotobi Laki-laki has erupted multiple times this year – no casualties have been reported so far.

However, an eruption last November killed at least ten people and forced thousands to flee.

Laki-Laki, which means “man” in Indonesian, is twinned with the calmer but taller 1,703m named Perempuan, the Indonesian word for “woman”.

Additional reporting by Eliazar Ballo in Kupang.

Lisbon, Portugal — Portugal is summoning its citizens to vote in their third general elections in three years on May 18, amid rapid shifts to the country’s political landscape that have left the country facing the prospect of yet another fractured mandate after decades of relative stability.

This year’s snap election comes at a moment when rising living costs, a housing crisis, the future of the national health service and perceptions of immigration are all significant issues on the public agenda – as is a corruption scandal that precipitated the upcoming vote.

The government of Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), fell in March, when parliament voted against a motion of confidence, triggering elections. It’s the second Portuguese government in a row that had left office under a cloud of corruption allegations.

Now, the country’s 10 million voters will need to choose the makeup of their next parliament, where 230 seats are up for grabs – and a divided mandate appears likely.

‘A very serious case’

Montenegro led a right-wing minority government for less than a year before accusations of corruption emerged over a consultancy firm that he set up, called “Spinumviva”.

A string of media investigations into potential conflicts of interest revealed the firm had received thousands of euros a month in consultancy fees from previously undisclosed clients, including companies with government contracts.

When a defiant Montenegro appeared on national television back in March to issue his response, he insisted that he had not broken the law because he had transferred his shares in the company to his wife and sons before he became prime minister in 2024.

But his defence is controversial, say experts.

“Under Portuguese civil law, even if it was possible to sell shares to someone you’re married to, you’d still be a joint owner of them, and, therefore, still able to profit from them,” said Portuguese lawyer and political commentator Carmo Afonso. “Spinumviva is a very serious case – and revelations are still emerging.”

Just hours before a live debate a few weeks later with his main rival, the Socialist Party’s Pedro Nuno Santos, Montenegro submitted an updated declaration of his business interests to the national online transparency portal.

According to an investigation by the Portuguese newspaper Expresso, some of Spinumviva’s clients earned at least 100 million euros ($112m) a year in government contracts during Montenegro’s mandate alone. Montenegro, meanwhile, says that he has not been involved with Spinumviva since becoming prime minister in March 2024.

How the race is shaping up

Still, the attention on Spinumviva may not have damaged Montenegro’s chances of re-election. According to Portuguese political scientist Vicente Valentim, “perceptions of corruption in Portugal are traditionally high, but it may not to be a significant factor in how people vote”.

Despite the ongoing scandal, the conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition, in which Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) is the majority party, leads the race, and is polling at 34 percent.

And according to a poll by Lisbon’s Catholic University, a third of voters think the Spinumviva case and its potential legal ramifications are irrelevant to the elections.

Montenegro’s brief period in government has seen him enjoy the support of the professional class, riding on a budget surplus attained by the previous government of the centrist Socialist Party (PS) of Antonio Costa, who was prime minister from 2015-2024.

Meanwhile, “the loss of the charismatic Antonio Costa has affected the PS’s popularity,” says Afonso. “Costa is a hard act to follow.”

“Ironically, the more Spinumviva gets talked about, the better it is for Montenegro, is what some commentators are saying,” says Afonso, who believes Montenegro was well aware of this when the government collapsed. “Montenegro chose to bring a vote of confidence in parliament knowing full well that he would lose it, because there really couldn’t be a better time to hold elections – better for him, that is.”

The PS, by contrast, is polling several points below the AD at about 26 percent.

Currently, it looks highly improbable that any of the parties or alliances running will win an outright majority of 116 seats or more. That leaves two likely possibilities: either a post-electoral coalition of parties that forms a majority in alliance; or a minority government, which needs the tacit support of other parties in parliament to push through essential legislation, including budgets.

About half a dozen parties are serious contenders for the rest of the 230 seats in parliament. These include the traditional players such as the Communist Party-Greens alliance (CDU), the Left Bloc, and the People-Animals-Nature party, as well as new parties including the Europeanist-Socialist party Livre (“Free”), the radical right-wing Iniciativa Liberal (“Liberal Initiative”), and the extreme right Chega (“Enough”).

The rise of the far right

Chega, which opposes immigration, abortion, and LGBTQ rights, and has targeted minorities like Portugal’s substantial Romani population, won a surprising 50 parliamentary seats in the 2024 elections, with Andre Ventura as leader. It won 18 percent of the national vote.

The party is currently in third position in the polls and is predicted to win close to what it did in the last elections.

Valentim, the political scientist, warns against interpreting Chega’s support base as representing a protest vote.

“A lot of people who vote for them already held the ideas they espoused, long before the party actually appeared; generally, the rapid growth of radical right-wing parties is not down to them changing people’s ideas,” he said. “So, Chega going from 1 percent of votes, to 7 percent, to 18 percent over the course of the last three elections doesn’t mean that the number of people with right-wing ideas has grown in those proportions.”

What it means, he said, is that “more and more people who already had those ideas, but used to feel that they were not socially acceptable, and that they would be judged, or made social pariahs or disadvantaged professionally because of them, no longer feel that”.

With the campaign period now well under way, Chega has been appealing to potential voters who might normally abstain. While polls suggest the party might not make major gains compared with the 2024 election, Valentim said he believes it’s here to stay.

“Portugal was previously the exception in the European landscape, because no far-right party had had any notable success there; that’s no longer the case,” he said. “We can be fairly certain in saying that Chega is not going to just disappear, as suddenly as it appeared. The political landscape has changed, definitively.”

And that has a range of consequences, he said.

“Citizens and politicians feeling at greater ease to express extreme right-wing ideas in public,” he said. There’s “greater polarisation around specific issues such as immigration and minority rights, and, of course, the dilemma of how the more traditional centre right deals with the far right”.

Under Montenegro, the PSD has maintained it will not cut a deal with Chega. However, its options for forming a government are limited. According to Valentim, centre-right parties often try to overcome the popularity of new radical right parties by shifting further right themselves – including, at times, by forming partnerships with them.

That rarely actually works for the centre right, he said. “Power-sharing agreements with the extreme right legitimise those parties, without actually bring any long-term gains for the centre right,” he said. “Studies have shown that the rapprochement of the centre right to the far right neither takes votes away from the far right, nor does it bring more votes back to the centre right. But it does result in a normalising of extreme right discourse, turning extreme right-wing ideas like xenophobia more acceptable.”

This effect was visible even before election campaigning began on the issue of immigration, which Portugal has actively encouraged in recent years. Almost a quarter of Portuguese companies now employ foreign workers, according to the Bank of Portugal. According to a study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation in December, the number of immigrants in Portugal tripled between 2015 and 2023.

However, right-wing parties have also stirred a backlash against immigration, and in particular the presence of agricultural and shop workers from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The FMS Foundation report showed that negative perceptions of migrants outweighed positive ones considerably – with 67 percent of the people they polled responding that they thought the presence of foreigners was associated with an increase in crime. Last year, Chega brought a motion to parliament for a national referendum on immigration but was voted down.

Earlier this month, Montenegro’s government notified 4,500 migrants that they would have to leave the country within 20 days. Following the permanent closure of the border agency SEF in 2024, the government cancelled a scheme that allowed migrants originating from outside the European Union to apply for residency once already working in the country. Some of those facing deportation have been waiting several years for a reply on their applications, and thousands more such notices are expected in the coming months.

These policies sit in contrast with Portugal’s demographic situation, with a falling birthrate, an ageing population and a declining fertility rate. In addition, it suffers from an ongoing trend of youth emigration – about 30 percent of the population between 15 and 39 is living abroad, one of the highest rates in the world.  A study from Porto University in December 2024 said that Portugal would need to ensure 138,000 immigrants arriving per year to guarantee economic growth over the next decade.

Housing and costs

Meanwhile, a housing crisis is the biggest ongoing issue in Portugal in the run-up to the elections. House prices rose by 106 percent between 2015 and 2023, according to the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, compared with 48 percent in Spain and 8 percent in Italy. The increase in property value has been caused by deregulation, large influxes of foreign investment in properties, speculation on real estate and a tourism boom.

As a result, young people and professionals are increasingly unable to afford housing in cities like Lisbon and Porto, where soaring rents have also prompted the closures of small businesses, and left low-income tenants stretched to pay rents or facing eviction.

Rising housing prices have also contributed to a general increase in the cost of living, with energy and food prices rising. Factors such as the war in Ukraine – because of its effect on the global supply chain – have amplified this crisis.

What’s next?

As of Thursday night, almost 20 percent of voters were undecided, meaning a range of outcomes is possible after the Sunday vote: An AD-led minority government, a less likely PS-led minority government, or a coalition between a variety of political players.

If that happens, it would be the second time a row that Portugal will not have a majority government: The AD won 80 seats in 2024 out of 230, just ahead of the PS, which won 78.

To Valentin, this is no longer an anomaly – he expects this scenario to be repeated in future elections, too.

“Portuguese democracy went through a very long period of relative stability,” he said, reflecting on the fact that Portugal this year celebrated 50 years since its first fully free elections, following the overthrow of the Estado Novo dictatorship. “For decades it had a multiparty system that barely changed, with governments alternating between the centre left PS and centre right PSD, and some interventions by a small number of other parties.”

“But now there’s been a lot of changes in a short period of time, with more and more new parties having made it into parliament,” he added.

That has meant fewer votes for the mainstream centrist parties, the PS and the PSD, as newer parties like Chega eat into their traditional base.

“We’re now entering a new paradigm,” said Valentin. “And it remains to be seen how these different political forces will balance out.”