The TWZ Newsletter
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Iran has asked for a ceasefire, U.S. President Donald Trump says. In a statement on Truth Social today, Trump claimed the request came from “Iran’s New Regime President.” Trump added: “We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”
Trump did not mention the top official by name, but described the individual as “much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors.”
Iran still has Masoud Pezeshkian as its president, but he was elected back in 2024. In media appearances — most recently yesterday, according to Iranian sources — Pezeshkian said that Tehran had the “necessary will” to bring the war to an end, while stressing that certain conditions and guarantees would be required for that to happen.
The Iranian foreign ministry says President Trump’s claim that the country has asked for a ceasefire is “false and baseless.”
Trump added, “I didn’t need regime change, but we got it because of the casualties of war. We got it. So we have regime change, and the big thing we have is they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. Nor do they want one.” Iran, for its part, has always claimed that it has no plans to develop nuclear weapons.
Barak Ravid, global affairs reporter with Axios, writes that three U.S. officials confirmed that discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire, dependent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, Trump claimed he had already accomplished regime change by killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite the fact that he had been succeeded by his son, Motjaba. While several other senior Iranian officials have been killed since the war began, critics argue that a leadership shift alone does not amount to true regime change.
“What we are seeing in Iran is not a regime change — but a transformation within the regime itself, one that has made it more extreme,” Danny Citrinowicz, the Israeli military’s former top Iran researcher, posted on X.
Overall, there are ongoing questions about whether the United States has met its evolving objectives since launching a joint attack with Israel on Iran more than four weeks ago.
As for the enriched uranium still possessed by Iran, Trump told Reuters today, “That’s so far underground, I don’t care about that… We’ll always be watching it by satellite.”
Speaking last night, Trump said that Operation Epic Fury could be concluded within two to three weeks. Trump added that reaching a deal with Tehran is not required to bring the conflict to an end.
“We will be leaving very soon,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last night.
Whatever Trump’s intentions are, we should know more tonight. The White House announced that the U.S. president will deliver “an important update” in a national address this evening at 9:00 p.m. Washington time.
While it remains unclear what new details Trump will share about the claimed ceasefire request, it seems likely that he will voice his opinions about the future of U.S. membership in NATO.
President Trump has said he is seriously weighing the possibility of withdrawing the United States from NATO, once again describing the alliance as a “paper tiger.”
“[NATO] is beyond recognition,” he said in an interview with The Telegraph.
“I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.”
In recent weeks, the U.S. president has criticized allied nations for their lack of involvement in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
“Beyond not being there, it was actually hard to believe. And I didn’t do a big sale. I just said, ‘Hey’, you know, I didn’t insist too much. I just think it should be automatic,” Trump said.
He also stated that the United States has supported countries in need, including Ukraine, even though it “wasn’t our problem.”
Trump also directed further criticism at the U.K. government, with which his relationship is increasingly strained. He added, “You don’t even have a navy. You’re too old and had aircraft carriers that didn’t work.”
Soon after, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer provided a press conference on the situation in the Middle East, referring to the growing rift with Washington.
“It is increasingly clear that as the world continues down this volatile path, our long-term national interest requires closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union,” Starmer said.
The Telegraph interview with Trump followed comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting Washington may need to reassess its ties with NATO once the conflict with Iran concludes.
“We’re going to have to reexamine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox News last night.
“If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in.”
UPDATES:
Over coverage has now concluded.
UPDATE: 9:54 PM EST –
During his roughly 19-minute speech from the White House about the war in Iran, Trump offered no real concrete details about its future. He made no mention of sending in ground troops and provided no real sense of when it might end. Meanwhile, contrary to earlier reporting that he might announce a U.S. withdrawal from the NATO alliance, he didn’t even mention the word NATO once.
Here are some highlights.
On the goals of Epic Fury being met:
Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran’s Navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their Air Force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it.
Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together, these actions will cripple Iran’s military, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Our armed forces have been extraordinary. There’s never been anything like it militarily. Everyone is talking about it, and tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.
On Iran no longer being a threat:
We are in this military operation so powerful, so brilliant, against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days, and the country has been eviscerated and essentially is really no longer a threat. They were the bully of the Middle East, but they’re the bully no longer.
On The Strait of Hormuz, the flow of oil and allied involvement:
Remember, because of our Drill, Baby, Drill program, America has plenty of gas. We have so much gas. Under my leadership, we are the number one producer of oil and gas on the planet, without even discussing the millions of barrels that we are getting from Venezuela. Because of the Trump administration’s policies, we produce more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. Think of that, Saudi Arabia and Russia combined, and that number will soon be substantially higher than that.
There’s no country like us anywhere in the world, and we’re in great shape for the future. The United States imports almost no oil through the Hormuz Strait, and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it, and we don’t need it. We’ve beaten and completely decimated Iran. They are decimated both militarily and economically and every other way. And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on. So to those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves. I have a suggestion. Number One, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And Number Two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us as we ask, ‘go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.’ Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. So it should be easy, and in any event, when this conflict is over, the Strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil, because that’s all they have to try and rebuild.
On what happens next:
I’ve made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we’ve made. I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly. We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.
In the meantime, discussions are ongoing. Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death. They’re all dead. The new group is less radical and much more reasonable. Yet, if during this period of time, no deal is made, we have our eyes on key targets. If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants, very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding, but we could hit it and it would be gone, and there’s not a thing they could do about it.
UPDATE: 6:30 PM EST –
The New York Times is reporting that “multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war.” The newspaper cited anonymous U.S. officials.
“The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands,” the Times proffered. “And while Iran is willing to keep channels open, they said, it does not trust the United States and does not think President Trump is serious about negotiations.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drones were designed not by private industry, but by the Pentagon. The drones were used in combat for the first time during Epic Fury. You can read more about these weapons, which CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper told us are “indespensible” here.
An image emerged online purporting to show damage to the Tabriz Shahid Madani International Airport control tower. The facility, which also serves as a military airbase, was struck in an attack earlier this week.
The explosive aftermath of an Israeli airstrike on an IRGC missile site can be seen in the following video.
Citing an intelligence firm, The Telegraph is reporting that Iran is using a covert network of front companies in China and Hong Kong to secretly bypass international sanctions and import parts to build its fleet of kamikaze drones.
The Israeli military said a strike in central Iran killed a figure it identified as a senior engineering officer in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Mahdi Vafaei, head of engineering in the IRGC Quds Force’s Lebanon Corps, was killed in a strike yesterday in Mahallat.
According to the IDF, Vafaei “advanced underground projects across Lebanon and Syria” over the past two decades, including “dozens of underground projects in Lebanon that were used to store advanced weaponry.”
Iran continues to send drones and missiles against different countries in the Gulf region.
According to the Israeli military, Iran launched its biggest ballistic missile salvo against Israel in recent weeks, when it fired 10 of the weapons at targets in the centre of the country today.
A drone strike ignited a major fire at Kuwait International Airport, the state news agency reported, adding that no casualties had been recorded. This morning, Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed two drones. Bahrain also stated early Wednesday that it was tackling a fire at a commercial facility caused by an Iranian attack. The United Arab Emirates reported five ballistic missiles launched by Iran toward its territory today, as well as 35 drone attacks.
Remarkable footage posted by the IDF shows what it identifies as an Iranian ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun positioned on the roof of a high-rise building in Tehran. The gun is struck by an Israeli man-in-the-loop-controlled missile, after which two individuals can be seen hanging from the edge of the burning roof, before one falls. While old, the ZU-23-2 twin-barreled 23mm anti-aircraft gun remains most relevant for engaging helicopters, low-flying drones, and cruise missiles.
QatarEnergy, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, said one of its tankers, the Aqua 1, was struck in a missile attack earlier today.
“None of the crew members on board were injured, and there is no impact on the environment as a result of this incident,” the state-owned company said in a statement.
Previously, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had said that a tanker off Qatar’s coast was hit by two projectiles — one sparked a fire that has since been put out, while another remained unexploded in the ship’s engine room.
The vessel was hit roughly 17 nautical miles north of Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub.
In a statement carried by Iranian state media, the IRGC said an oil tanker belonging to the “Zionist regime with the trade name Aqua 1” in the Persian Gulf “was precisely targeted.”
According to Michael Haigh, Global Head of FIC and Commodities Research, the final vessels carrying jet fuel to the United Kingdom will arrive in the next 48 hours, with no more fuel scheduled to arrive after that.
There are more signs that the Iran-backed Houthis are ramping up their strikes on Israel.
Houthi forces in Yemen say they were behind a missile strike on southern Israel earlier today, describing it as a coordinated effort with Iran and Hezbollah.
In a statement, the Houthi movement said it carried out its third missile attack in the conflict “in conjunction with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon”.
The Tehran-backed group added that it “carried out the third military operation… targeting sensitive Israeli enemy targets… with a barrage of ballistic missiles”.
It also warned of “further escalation” if Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, the occupied West Bank, and Gaza.
The statement was issued roughly three hours after the Israeli military reported intercepting a ballistic missile launched from Yemen toward southern Israel, noting that no injuries occurred.
A video has emerged that may show the first documented instance of an interceptor drone being used to bring down an Iranian Shahed-series long-range one-way attack drone in Iraq.
Baxtiyar Goran shared the video on the social media platform X.
According to him, the footage was taken near the city of Erbil in northern Iraq, where pro-Iranian forces have launched various drone strikes against U.S. and allied objectives.
Recent satellite imagery reveals the aftermath of Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Al-Udairi Air Base in northern Kuwait.
Imagery shows destroyed hangars, damaged military vehicles, and affected personnel shelters.
Also known as Camp Buehring, Udairi Air Base is a key strategic hub for the U.S. Army in the Middle East. Situated in the desert near the Iraq border, it functions as a major logistics center for U.S. forces.
Further details have emerged of the movement of U.S. Air Force A-10C Warthog attack jets to England, ahead of a likely move to the Middle East.
RAF Lakenheath in England has now received 12 A-10s from the 107th Fighter Squadron at Selfridge Air National Guard Base, Michigan, which arrived on March 30.
They were followed by another six A-10s from the 190th Fighter Squadron out of Gowen Field Air National Guard Base, Idaho, which touched down at Lakenheath on March 31.
All these aircraft departed for their transatlantic flight from Pease Air National Guard Base, New Hampshire.
CBS News reports that the U.S. military has lost 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones since the war with Iran began, including two more this week near Isfahan.
In its latest Middle East update, the U.K. Ministry of Defense stated that it destroyed 10 Iranian drones overnight.
RFA Lyme Bay, a Bay class auxiliary dock landing ship of the British Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA), is seen here headed to port in Gibraltar, where it will reportedly be equipped with autonomous minehunting capabilities. It is unclear if and when the vessel will return to the Gulf region after spending a period on station in the eastern Mediterranean.
Greece is conducting training maneuvers to respond to possible Iranian attacks, according to Al Jazeera. The news agency reported on recent drills by the Greek merchant navy. These are primarily in response to the risk of drone strikes against Cyprus, where the British airbase of RAF Akrotiri has already been hit.
U.S. military commanders voiced concerns about the vulnerability of the bases they were using in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states to Iranian missile and drone attacks years ahead of Operation Epic Fury. They proposed stationing key aircraft during a conflict in the western part of the kingdom, a safer distance away from Tehran, The Wall Street Journal reports. As we reported yesterday, the Pentagon is now prioritizing more hardened shelters to better protect U.S. forces at bases in the Middle East, according to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
The proposal was never adopted, with the Pentagon instead focusing on potential contingencies in the Asia-Pacific region. Last week, Iranian strikes heavily damaged or destroyed U.S. military aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, including at least one of the Air Force’s prized E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft and refueling tankers.
In his address to the nation, Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese said the months ahead “may not be easy” and urged Australians to “think of others in your community, in the bush and in critical industries.”
The pope expressed his hope that President Donald Trump is seeking a way to decrease violence in the Middle East.
“I’m told that President Trump recently stated that he would like to end the war,” Pope Leo XIV said. “Hopefully he’s looking for an ‘off ramp.’ Hopefully, he’s looking for a way to decrease the amount of violence, of bombing, which would be a significant contribution to removing the hatred that’s being created and that’s increasing constantly in the Middle East and elsewhere.”
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
