choke

Recent battlefield gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) may turn the tide in Kordofan, analysts have told Al Jazeera.

Sudan’s devastating war between the SAF and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raged for two and a half years, resulting in massive displacement and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, according to the United Nations.

Yet SAF’s capture in September of the strategic city of Bara, which the RSF was using for logistics, supplies, and as a muster point for reinforcements, is seen as a sign that SAF may have swung the pendulum in its favour.

Why is Bara important?

Bara lies about 350km (217 miles) southwest of the capital Khartoum along the “Export Road” used to truck goods from Khartoum to el-Obeid, capital of North Kordofan State.

It also exports its own agricultural products and livestock to the rest of Sudan.

The Khartoum-el-Obeid connection is vital because from el-Obeid, roads lead outwards to South Sudan and Sudan’s east and Darfur in the west.

From Khartoum, roads lead northeast to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, where the wartime government was until recently. Roads also lead north to Egypt and east to Eritrea and Ethiopia.

SAF took el-Obeid in February, after a two-year RSF siege, and took Khartoum in March, so taking Bara gave it solid control over the Export Road to use as a supply route, independent Sudanese military and political analyst Akram Ali told Al Jazeera.

Bara and el-Obeid lie near the westernmost reaches of SAF control, well to the east of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur and the last city SAF holds in the vast western region. Between the two is a stretch of RSF control – and siege on el-Fasher – that SAF has to breach.

For the RSF, keeping Bara and a foothold in Kordofan was important because it allowed it to put pressure on SAF, which holds territory to the north, and to link the areas it controls in Kordofan and Darfur to South Sudan, links it uses to move weapons and fighters.

How did SAF take Bara?

The army launched an offensive on Bara from the south on September 11, while RSF defences were concentrated on the eastern side, analyst Abdul Majeed Abdul Hamid said.

SAF sent continuous drone strikes against RSF targets, then launched the Darfur Track Armed Struggle Movement, an assault force known for mobility and speed, from el-Obeid.

The force successfully engaged and defeated the RSF unit defending Bara, then entered the city with heavy firepower, according to a military officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The officer said the operation relied on speed and keeping the RSF occupied on several fronts to prevent it from sending reinforcements.

Most of Bara’s civilians supported SAF, according to Abdul Hamid, and the RSF quickly retreated.

The operation cut off RSF supply and military support lines, he added, isolating their remaining positions in areas such as al-Khuwei to the west and al-Nahud to the east.

For the RSF, keeping Bara and a foothold in Kordofan was important because it allowed it to put pressure on SAF, which holds territory to the north, and to link the areas it controls in Kordofan and Darfur to South Sudan, links it uses to move weapons and fighters.

Losing Bara also meant that the RSF could no longer keep the city of el-Obeid under siege.

Will the RSF lose the Kordofans?

The RSF announced in February this year that it had entered an alliance with the Southern People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). South Kordofan includes the Abyei region, disputed between Sudan and South Sudan. The SPLM-N controls the vast, isolated Nuba Mountains region in South Kordofan, right up against the border with South Sudan.

However, despite that new stronghold, analysts told Al Jazeera that losing control over the Export Road spells a serious deterioration in the RSF’s power in the Kordofans.

“The army’s entry into el-Obeid marked the beginning of their actual collapse,” said Ali.

An army unit called “Al-Sayyad” – named after a commander killed in the early days of the war – had moved from Rabak, capital of White Nile State, in a campaign that eventually reached el-Obeid.

Political analyst Ahmed Shamukh said liberating Bara opens the door to reactivating the SAF air base in el-Obeid, the largest in Kordofan, after two years of inactivity, “significantly [enhancing] the logistical and combat capabilities of the Sudanese army” and helping SAF’s campaign to expel RSF from the Kordofans.

Taking back all of Kordofan would allow SAF to work towards liberating Darfur, Abdul Hamid said.

“The army has combat experience and personnel capable of liberating Kordofan with the same capabilities it used to retake the cities of central Sudan and the capital,” Abdul Hamid continued.

The war has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 10 million in what has become the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

According to the UN, a total of 24.6 million people face acute food insecurity, while 19 million people lack access to safe water and sanitation.

Ukraine has worsened fuel shortages across Russia in the past week as it has continued to hit Russia’s refineries and energy infrastructure with long-range drones while Poland has called for more oil sanctions in the wake of Russia’s first drone attack on NATO soil.

In the meantime, Russia’s creeping advance resulted in the capture of three villages over the past week, and perhaps for the first time, Ukraine’s command reacted by dismissing the retreating officers.

Russian forces took the villages of Sosnovka and Novonikolayevka in Dnipropetrovsk and Olhivske/Olgovskoye in Zaporizhia.

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on Monday fired the two officers in charge of the 17th and 20th army corps, which are based in the two respective regions.

Since 2024, Ukraine has fought through slow, tactical retreats designed to cede limited ground for disproportionately high Russian casualties.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, has estimated that in May, June, July and August, Russia took 1,910sq km (737.5sq miles) of Ukrainian territory at a cost of 130,000 casualties, averaging 68 casualties per square kilometre.

Syrskyi’s dismissals could indicate a tougher approach towards land losses going forward.

Russian forces were suffering “significant losses” in Kupiansk and Dobropillia, two of the hottest points along the front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.

Ukrainian defenders were advancing towards the Russian border in Sumy in northern Ukraine, he said.

Ukraine’s strategy – not purely defensive

Ukraine has launched a two-pronged strategy this year to choke off fuel supplies to the Russian economy and military and to kill Russian revenues from energy exports.

“The most effective sanctions – the ones that work the fastest – are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots,” Zelenskyy said in an evening address to the Ukrainian people on Sunday.

“Russia’s war is essentially a function of oil, of gas, of all its other energy resources,” he said.

That day, Ukraine crippled Russia’s second largest refinery when its drones struck a processing unit accounting for 40 percent of the plant’s capacity.

Russian authorities said they shot down 361 drones, suggesting there were many other targets as well.

Industry sources told the Reuters news agency that the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, located in the northwestern town of Kirishi, would boost production at other units. Even so, the refinery could operate only at three-quarters of its capacity.

Last year, it produced 7.1 million tonnes of diesel and 6.1 million tonnes of fuel oil for ships.

Two days after the Kirishi strike, Ukraine’s military reported it also struck the Saratov refinery, which supplies the Russian military.

There is mounting evidence that the first prong of Ukraine’s strategy is working.

Russian state newspaper Izvestiya reported last week that fuel shortages had spread to 10 Russian republics and regions, including the central regions of Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov and Rostov as well as occupied Crimea.

Izvestiya’s report was based on interviews with the Russian Independent Fuel Union, an association of petrol station owners, which said many petrol stations had not received deliveries for several weeks and had been forced to shut down.

Regional governors have also recently confirmed fuel shortages.

Ukraine has struck at least 10 major Russian refineries this year, and the commander of its Unmanned Systems Forces estimated Russia has lost one-fifth of its refining capacity.

“The Russian war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel,” Zelenskyy told the annual Yalta European Strategy Meeting in Kyiv on Friday. “And Putin will begin to stop it himself when he himself truly feels that the resources for war are running out.”

Fewer exports

The second prong of Ukraine’s strategy, choking off Russia’s cashflow from oil and fuel exports, has also been highly successful.

On Friday, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s largest oil offloading terminal at Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, according to sources at Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).

The strike caused a fire at the pumping station and a ship moored next to it, forcing the terminal to suspend shipments, Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported.

Ukraine also struck pumping stations along the Transneft Baltic Pipeline System-2, which supplies crude oil to offloading terminals in the port of Ust-Luga, also in the Leningrad region.

“Oil and gas revenues have accounted for between a third and half of Russia’s total federal budget proceeds over the past decade, making the sector the single most important source of financing for the government,” Reuters said.

Russia has banned all exports of refined petroleum products since February and sought to increase exports of crude oil instead.

But even that goal may not be possible.

Russia’s biggest pipeline operator, Transneft, has reportedly told upstream oil producers they may have to cut their output because Ukrainian strikes have degraded its ability to store and carry oil to refineries and export terminals, according to three industry sources who spoke to Reuters.

Transneft dismissed the report as “fake news”.

EU seeks to end all imports

Poland called for a complete ban of Russian oil imports to the European Union after 19 Russian drones entered its airspace on September 10.

Most of the EU has banned Russian oil imports, but Hungary and Slovakia have an exemption until the end of 2027 because they said it’s cheaper for them to import oil via pipeline from Russia than to receive it through other EU countries.

That may change, the European Commission chief said on Tuesday. “The Commission will soon present its 19th package of sanctions, targeting crypto, banks, and energy,” President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on social media. “The Commission will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil imports.”

Ongoing sales of Russian energy to Europe have been a topic of concern.

Official EU imports of Russian oil have dropped by an estimated 90 percent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to estimates from the EU’s statistical service.

However, the EU never actually banned Russian gas, and the London-based think tank Ember has estimated it paid Russia $23.6bn for gas last year – almost $5bn more than it paid in military aid to Ukraine.

“I urge all partners to stop looking for excuses not to impose particular sanctions,” Zelenskyy said on Saturday. “If [Russian President Vladimir] Putin does not want peace, he must be forced into it.”