Chinas

The global green transition has long been seen as a critical path to addressing climate change and reshaping economies. Yet, since 2020, this vision has faced a growing backlash. Rising energy prices, inflation, and the mounting financial strain on the middle class have made green policies increasingly unpopular in many developed nations. In the U.S., for instance, under the Trump administration, the green transition has been delayed under the pretext of inflation and job security. In Europe, despite some countries’ continued commitment to green initiatives, conservative political forces have begun to push back, casting doubt on the future of the green agenda. Even frameworks like Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies, once seen as a driving force for the green transition, are now under attack for “greenwashing”, further undermining their credibility.

What was once an ambitious, unified global vision for a greener future is now splintering into a series of competing political agendas. Against this backdrop of uncertainty, China’s green transition has shown a distinctive sense of continuity.

Unlike many Western nations, China’s green transition is not just about international agreements or ideological alignment. It is driven by deep, internal imperatives to address chronic pollution, improve public health, and upgrade its industrial base. The need for cleaner air and a more sustainable economy is not just a policy choice for China but an urgent requirement for the country’s reality.

This internal drive gives China a unique position to lead the charge in creating a “non-politicized global green coalition”, focused not on ideological divides, but on pragmatic, shared solutions.

With the U.S. scaling back its green subsidies and Europe facing political fragmentation, a leadership vacuum is emerging in global climate governance. In countries like France, Italy, and the Netherlands, right-wing forces are calling for delays to energy taxes and carbon-reduction targets, seeing the green agenda as an economic burden. Meanwhile, in the Nordic countries, while policies remain green, their influence is limited by their small size and capacity to drive global change.

This creates an opportunity for China to step in.

If China can embrace a pragmatic and non-politicized approach, it can work to rebuild cross-regional cooperation on green policies and lay the foundation for a new global green alliance. Such a coalition, focusing on technology, green finance, and shared standards, could bring together countries from East Asia, the Middle East, and emerging economies in Africa and Southeast Asia.

China’s green transition is driven by urgent domestic needs. In 2024, official statistics indicate that the proportion of days with good air quality in China reached 87.2 percent last year, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year, though pollution remains a problem to be tackled. As China strives to reduce healthcare burdens and improve the quality of life for its citizens, its green transition becomes a necessity, not just a global strategy.

Unlike countries that frame their green policies in ideological terms, China’s approach is rooted in a concrete need for environmental and public health improvement. This focus on sustainabilitypositions China as a potential leader in advocating for non-ideological global cooperation on climate issues.

Indeed, China has already made significant strides in “green diplomacy”. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has increasingly focused on green development, with projects in clean energy, sustainable transportation, and ecological conservation now spread across over 100 countries. China’s leadership in renewable energy production, from photovoltaic modules to electric vehicles, gives it a competitive advantage in driving the green agenda forward. China is already the world’s largest producer of clean energy technology, with production capacities for solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries outpacing any other country.

But China’s green transition is not just about technology. The country is also emerging as a leader in green finance. China accounts for 60% of Asia’s green finance, which is roughly $200 billion. Its ability to offer affordable, high-quality green technologies to developing nations, combined with its leadership in green finance, makes it well-positioned to spearhead a new global green coalition.

While China has significant advantages, there are still challenges ahead. Some countries may perceive China-led green initiatives as another form of geopolitical influence. Western nations still control many critical certification systems and intellectual property related to green technologies, which could limit its ability to fully shape the global green agenda. Additionally, the long investment cycles and uncertain returns of green projects could stretch China’s financial resources.

To mitigate these risks, China could focus on building trust through joint projects with other nations and involving Western capital as investors or observers. Focusing on less politically sensitive areas, such as energy storage, carbon trading, and climate education, would also help to avoid ideological conflicts and build a more inclusive global green network.

The global green transition is not just an economic challenge. It is an opportunity to redefine international governance based on shared survival pressures. If China can lead the way with a focus on non-ideological cooperation and pragmatic action, it can help the world move beyond the current political fragmentation and build a greener, more sustainable future for all.

China has successfully achieved economic development in recent years by shifting towards a model that relies on stimulating domestic demand. This not only ensures economic stability but also addresses crucial considerations related to China’s national security and international competitiveness. China has indeed succeeded in this by focusing on four key factors that are the main determinants of its remarkable economic growth: economic reform policies, the government’s commitment to Chinese-style reform, the government’s dedication to integrating into the global economy, and industrial upgrading and technological innovation. The Chinese government has also unveiled measures to boost service consumption and pledged to open up more sectors, such as the internet, culture, and the promotion of hosting international sporting events, in an effort to bolster the Chinese economy and connect it globally.

 China’s Fifteenth Five-Year Plan further spurred this shift from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, placing science and technology at the forefront of national priorities.  Over the past five years, China has strengthened its comprehensive opening-up policy, implementing practical measures to improve the business environment and fostering continued cooperation with all countries, especially developing nations of the Global South, through its Belt and Road Initiative. The Belt and Road Initiative has become a model for a new type of international cooperation and has been recognized as such by international organizations, including the United Nations. During this same period, China has also made concerted efforts to improve the ecological environment and fulfill its international commitments through its “green economy” policy. This policy emphasizes the Chinese government’s commitment to environmentally friendly economic projects worldwide, particularly in African, developing, and Globally Southern countries. China is rapidly advancing a cleaner and greener economy, with strong commitments to environmental protection, clean energy, ecological protection, and the development of green industries.

 China’s economic development has achieved remarkable success in recent years through a long-term plan focused on economic reforms. This plan involved transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one, adopting a policy of openness to foreign investment, establishing special economic zones to attract foreign investment, and investing heavily in infrastructure development, particularly in transportation, energy, communications, information technology, and artificial intelligence. China has also become the world’s largest exporter of advanced technology, with the Chinese government allocating approximately 2.6% of its GDP to research and development across various economic sectors. Furthermore, China boasts the world’s fastest-growing consumer market and is the second-largest importer of goods.  China’s industrial output is double that of the United States. The Chinese government has addressed poverty through development, guided by market principles, economic restructuring, the utilization of domestic resources, peaceful production development, and the strengthening of self-reliance and development capabilities. It has employed various methods and approaches to reduce poverty through self-reliance and hard work, building infrastructure in agriculture, industry, roads, and irrigation, providing the necessary funds for development and training, and allocating all necessary resources for technological advancements in each sector. Simultaneously, efforts have been made to protect the environment by conserving soil and water, promoting ecological construction, and implementing the sustainable development strategy set by the central government. China has not only eradicated poverty but has also raised the standard of living in all areas, enabling it to compete with developed nations in many fields.

 One of the most prominent strengths of the Chinese economy in recent years is its success in achieving high levels in education and scientific research. China spends 2.5% of its GDP on research and development.  The number of people employed in research and development sectors is approximately 1,687 per million inhabitants, enabling China to remain a leading exporter of high-tech goods globally. This has been achieved while the Chinese government has encouraged the formation of rural and private enterprises, liberalized foreign trade and investment, eased state control over certain prices, and invested in industrial production and workforce education.

China’s heavyweight jet-powered Jiutian drone, said to have a maximum takeoff weight of around 17.6 tons (16 metric tons), has flown. A key mission for the design is expected to be acting as a mothership for swarms of smaller uncrewed aerial systems, as TWZ has explored in the past. It has also been shown previously armed with various air-to-surface and air-to-air munitions, and could perform a variety of other missions, including airborne signal relay and logistics.

The Jiutian’s manufacturer, the state-run Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), announced the drone’s first flight, which took place earlier today in Pucheng County in China’s central Shaanxi Province. The drone was first shown publicly at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, and it has also been referred to as the SS-UAV. What the “SS” stands for in that acronym remains unclear. The name Jiutian (also sometimes written Jiu Tian), or “The Ninth Heaven,” refers to the highest level of the heavens in traditional Chinese mythology, but is also commonly translated simply as “High Sky.”

Jiutian is some 53.6 feet (16.35 meters) long and has a wingspan of around 82 feet (25 meters), per AVIC. In addition to its maximum takeoff weight, the company says it has a maximum payload capacity of nearly 13,228 pounds (6,000 kilograms), a ferry range of approximately 4,349.5 miles (7,000 kilometers), and can stay aloft for up to 12 hours. The drone’s stated maximum operational ceiling is 49,212.5 feet (15,000 meters), and it can fly at speeds up to 378 knots and as low as 108 knots.

In terms of its general configuration, Jiutian has a high-mounted wing with a very minimal sweep and small winglets at the tips, as well as an H-shaped tail. It has a single jet engine mounted in a nacelle on top of the rear fuselage. Its tricycle landing gear includes main units that retract into sponsons under the wings. As TWZ has noted in the past, these features together give the drone the outward appearance of something of a mashup of the A-10 Warthog and OV-10 Bronco attack aircraft. There is also a resemblance to rugged De Havilland aircraft, with its landing gear looking especially tough, which could point to being able to operate out of rougher fields.

Jiutian is notably large compared to many other armed uncrewed aircraft designs currently on the market globally. For instance, the jet-powered Wing Loong-10 drone (also known as the WZ-10) in Chinese service now, produced by AVIC’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG) subsidiary, has a maximum takeoff weight of around 3.5 tons (3,200 kilograms). CAIG’s Wing Loong 3 pusher-propeller-driven armed drone, the largest member of that design family to date, has a maximum takeoff weight of around six tons. As another point of comparison, the stated maximum takeoff weight of newer extended-range versions of the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper, which are also notably smaller overall, is just under six tons.

AVIC has described the Jiutian as a “general purpose” design capable of performing a wide range of missions, and its modular payload section has drawn particular attention since it was first unveiled. At the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, that section had a Chinese phrase printed on the side reading “ascension of the beehive mission module,” according to a machine translation. It also said “Isomerism Hive Module” in English, which appeared to be a mistranslation. A term typically used in chemistry, isomerism refers to the potential existence of isomers, which are molecules or ions with identical molecular formula, but that differ in the physical and chemical arrangements of their atoms. AVIC subsequently confirmed that the intent was to communicate a drone swarm launch capability, according to Chinese state media.

As TWZ wrote last year:

“China’s interest in swarming capabilities and the ability to launch them from various platforms, including high-altitude balloons, is not new. For military purposes, swarms have a number of inherent benefits, including the ability to rapidly fan out across a broad area to carry out various missions depending on how they are configured, including intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), electronic warfare, and kinetic strike. Individual drones in a swarm can also be equipped with different payloads to give the entire grouping a multi-mission capability. Large numbers of uncrewed aerial systems operating closely together also present significant challenges for defenders who could easily find themselves overwhelmed or otherwise confused about how to best respond to the incoming threats.”

“The War Zone previously laid out a case for giving exactly this kind of drone swarm launch capability to reconfigured P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol planes, which you can read more about here. Drones launching other drones offers a way to push these capabilities further forward while reducing the risk to crewed platforms.”

Having a platform capable of delivering a swarm of drones within hundreds of miles of a particular area would offer huge advantages, especially for attacking ships at sea, island outposts, and other distributed or dispersed target sets. Even the most modern warships in service in the United States and elsewhere today notably lack any real ability to defend against a high-volume attack of this kind. This is something TWZ previously highlighted in a detailed case for arming U.S. Navy warships with their own swarms of drones to bolster their defensive and offensive capabilities, which you can find here.

As mentioned, Jiutian has been displayed in the past with four pylons under each wing loaded with various munitions, as well. This has included PL-12 radar-guided air-to-air missiles, TL-17 land-attack cruise missiles (an export variant of the KD-88), and precision-guided bombs.

Jiutian has a sensor turret under its nose of the kind typically fitted with a mix of electro-optical and infrared cameras. It could also contain a laser designator for employing munitions using that type of guidance.

The drone also has a dome on top of the nose in line with a beyond-line-of-sight communications array and a nose radome. The latter has pointed to at least provisions for the installation of a radar. That could be used to help spot and target aerial threats using weapons like the PL-12, as well as for other targeting purposes, and just to assist with navigation and provide additional situational awareness. Jiutian could use air-to-air weapons for self-defense or to actively hunt flying targets.

The modular payload section is large enough to serve a host of other potential purposes, as well. It could accommodate additional sensors, such as a side-looking airborne radar (SLAR), as well as electronic warfare suites and communication arrays. Jiutian’s ability to fly high and for extended periods at relatively low speeds could make it a particularly ideal platform for more general surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as acting as an airborne communications node. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had already been expanding its fleet of high-altitude, long-endurance drones and increasingly employing them on routine surveillance and reconnaissance missions, over land or water, around its borders. Many of those existing designs can also carry air-to-surface munitions, but with nowhere near the same capacity as the Jiutian.

AVIC itself has highlighted how Jiutian’s internal space could be utilized for carrying cargo, and it could be a relevant addition for providing logistics support to far-flung locales. The PLA has pronounced needs in this regard with an ever-growing array of remote and austere operating locations, such as its highly strategic island outposts in the South China Sea and its bases spread across the Himalayan Plateau along its disputed border with India. As mentioned earlier, the Jiutian’s landing gear could point to its ability to perform any of its missions while forward-deployed at sites with more limited infrastructure to perform.

Uncrewed platforms could also offer cost benefits compared to traditional crewed cargo aircraft for conducting routine resupply operations to those areas, where the latter may not even be able to operate at all. At the same time, this all seems likely to be at most a secondary mission set for the Jiutian. AVIC and other Chinese aviation firms have already been developing a growing array of larger drones expressly designed primarily for logistics roles.

AVIC and the PLA have also been heavily touting Jiutian’s potential to perform various non-military missions. “Its modular payload system enables roles ranging from precise deliveries of heavy cargo to remote regions, to emergency communication and disaster relief, to geographic surveying and resource mapping,” according to a post today from the China Military Bugle account on X, an official mouthpiece for China’s armed forces.

A large unmanned aerial vehicle (#UAV), named “Jiutian,” completed its maiden flight on December 11, 2025, according to the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (#AVIC).

The domestically developed general-purpose drone, measuring 16.35 meters in length and 25 meters in… pic.twitter.com/LwUHyNaEp6

— China Military Bugle (@ChinaMilBugle) December 11, 2025

More broadly, Jiutian is reflective of China’s increasingly dominant position in the uncrewed aviation space globally. AVIC and other firms in China have been steadily unveiling new designs, large and small, in recent years, and getting many of them at least to first flight. Just this year, TWZ has been the first to report on the emergence of multiple new Chinese uncrewed aircraft with flying wing-type designs, an area of development that has become particularly pronounced in the country. Just last month, the PLA announced that it had put its first flying wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), the GJ-11, into operational service, as you can read more about here. There has been a notable surge in Chinese military aviation developments, in general, since last year, which also includes the emergence of significant new crewed types, such as the J-36 and J-XDS stealth fighters.

It’s worth pointing out that AVIC’s heavy focus on non-military missions for Jiutian underscores the significant overlap between the military and commercial ends of China’s aerospace industry, as well as the role that ostensibly civilian research institutions often play. This is something TWZ routinely highlights. These kinds of dual-purpose relationships are also prevalent in the country outside of the aviation realm.

When it comes to the Jiutian design, specifically, more insights into its capabilities and expected roles may now begin to emerge as the drone is now in flight testing.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

China’s trade surplus – the difference between the value of goods it imports and exports – has hit $1 trillion for the first time, a significant yardstick in the country’s role as “factory of the world”, making everything from socks and curtains to electric cars.

For the first 11 months of this year, China’s exports rose to $3.4 trillion while its imports declined slightly to $2.3 trillion. That brought the country’s trade surplus to about $1 trillion, China’s General Administration of Customs said on Monday.

Shipments overseas from China have boomed despite US President Donald Trump’s global trade war, largely consisting of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on most countries, which were launched earlier this year in a bid to reduce US trade deficits.

But China, which was initially hit with US tariffs of 145 percent before they were lowered to allow for trade talks, has emerged largely unscathed from the standoff by stepping up shipments to markets outside the US.

Following Trump’s 2024 election win, China began diversifying its export market away from the US in exchange for closer ties with Southeast Asia and the European Union. It also established new production hubs, outside of China, for low-tariff access.

Why does China have such a large trade surplus?

China’s exports returned to growth last month following an unexpected dip in October, rising to 5.9 percent more than one year earlier and far outpacing a 1.9 percent rise in imports, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

China’s goods surplus for the first 11 months of 2025 was up 21.7 percent from the same period last year. Most of the surge was driven by strong growth in high-tech goods, which outpaced the increase in overall exports by 5.4 percent.

Auto exports, especially for electric vehicles, rallied as Chinese firms muscled in on Japanese and German market share. Total car shipments jumped by more than one million to approximately 6.5 million units this year, according to data from China-based consultancy Automobility.

And although China still trails US leaders like Nvidia in advanced chips, it is becoming dominant in the production of semiconductors (used in everything from electric cars to medical devices). Semiconductor exports rose by 24.7 percent over the period.

China’s technological advances have also boosted shipbuilding, where exports rose 26.8 percent compared with the same period in 2024.

So, given the hostile global trade backdrop, how has China achieved this?

Rerouting and diversifying

Though Washington has lowered tariffs on Chinese imports in recent months, they remain high. Average import duties on Chinese goods currently stand at 37 percent. For this reason, Chinese shipments to the US have dropped by 29 percent year-on-year to November.

Some Chinese companies have shifted their production facilities to Southeast Asia, Mexico and Africa, enabling them to bypass Trump’s tariffs on goods arriving directly from China. Despite this, overall trade between the two countries remains down.

In the first eight months of this year, for instance, the US imported roughly $23bn in goods from Indonesia, an increase of nearly one-third on the same period in 2024. It is widely understood that the rise is down to Chinese goods being redirected via Indonesia.

“The role of trade rerouting in offsetting the drag from US tariffs still appears to be increasing,” Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Huang added that “exports to Vietnam, the top [Chinese] rerouting hub, continued to grow rapidly.”

As trade with the US has slackened, China has doubled down on developing ties with other major trading partners. That includes a 15 percent surge in Chinese shipments to the EU, compared with the year before, and an 8.2 percent rise in exports to countries in Southeast Asia.

Weaker currency

Another reason for China’s trading success is that its currency has been cheap, compared with others, in recent years. A lower renminbi makes exports relatively inexpensive to produce, and imports relatively expensive to consume.

China maintains a “managed float” of the renminbi – meaning the central bank intervenes in foreign exchange markets to maintain its value against other currencies – with the aim of keeping the price stable.

For years, many economists have argued that China’s currency is undervalued. In their view, that gives exporters a competitive edge by boosting the appeal of cheap Chinese products at the expense of other countries, leading to large imbalances in trade.

Indeed, taking into account global inflationary dynamics, the real effective exchange rate – a measure of the competitiveness of Chinese goods – is actually at its weakest level since 2012.

How has China got here?

China’s eye-watering $1 trillion trade surplus – never before recorded in economic history – is the culmination of decades of industrial policies that have enabled China to emerge from a low-income agrarian society in the 1970s to become the world’s second-largest economy today.

China established itself as a dependable producer of low-cost manufactured goods, like T-shirts and shoes, in the 1980s. Since then, it has climbed the industrial ladder to higher-value goods, such as electric vehicles and solar panels.

By far its largest sector in terms of exports is electronics. China exported a total of more than $1 trillion-worth of electronic goods around the world in 2024. This follows the pattern of other industrialised countries by starting with simple, labour-intensive goods and then moving into more complex sectors. However, China has done so with unusual scale and speed to cement its dominance across numerous global supply chains.

It also dominates trade in rare-earth metals, which are crucial for the manufacture of a wide range of goods from smartphones to fighter jets.

Twelve of the 17 rare earth metals on the periodic table can be found in China, and it mines between 60 percent and 70 percent of the world’s rare-earth resources. It also carries out 90 percent of the processing of these metals for commercial use.

For historical context, China’s trade surplus in factory goods is larger as a share of its economy than the US ran in the years after World War II, when most other manufacturing nations were emerging from the ruins of war.

How are other countries responding to China’s expanding dominance?

Many are looking for ways to redress the balance.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited China last week, warned the EU may take “strong measures”, including imposing higher tariffs, should Beijing fail to address the imbalance.

The EU already imposes additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), which range from 17 percent to 35.3 percent, for example, on top of its existing 10 percent import duty.
Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, arrived in China for a two-day trip on Monday this week, becoming the latest senior European official to visit for talks amid the country’s rapidly expanding goods trade with Europe.

Before his trip, Wadephul said he planned to raise the issue of tariffs with his Chinese counterparts, particularly those involving rare earths, in addition to concerns about industrial “overcapacities”, which he said are distorting global prices for industrial goods.

Will China’s exports continue to grow?

Despite efforts by the US and other wealthy countries to diversify away from China, few economists expect the country’s broad-based trade momentum to slow anytime soon.

Economists at Morgan Stanley predict China’s share of global goods exports will reach 16.5 percent by the end of the decade, up from 15 percent now, reflecting China’s ability to adapt quickly to shifting global demand.

More immediately, China’s strong trade performance means the annual growth target – set by Beijing to guide economic policy and to align regional governments – of about 5 percent is likely to be met.