China

China Secretly Testing Nuclear Weapons And Covering Its Tracks, U.S. Alleges (Updated)

The U.S. government has accused China of secretly conducting at least one “yield-producing nuclear test” in recent years despite the country having a stated moratorium on such activities. Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to engage in new nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with China and Russia, but it remains unclear what that might mean and what action has been taken. The new test allegation also comes as American officials continue to call for a new nuclear arms control treaty that includes China to succeed the New START agreement with Russia, which sunset yesterday.

“Today, I can reveal that the U.S. government is aware that China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons,” Thomas DiNanno, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, said during a speech at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Switzerland this morning. “The PLA [China’s People’s Liberation Army] sought to conceal testing by obfuscating the nuclear explosions because it recognized these tests violate test ban commitments.”

Then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno seen descending into a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch facility at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota during an inspection in 2019. US State Department

China is a signatory to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), but has never ratified it. The same is true of the United States. Both countries have stated self-imposed moratoriums on yield-producing nuclear testing. The CTBT does not prohibit sub-critical testing, which does not involve a full-fledged nuclear reaction. China’s last acknowledged critical-level nuclear test was in 1996. The last U.S. test of that kind was in 1992.

“China has used decoupling – a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring – to hide its activities from the world,” DiNanno added. “China conducted one such yield-producing nuclear test on June 22nd of 2020.”

China has conducted nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons… China has used decoupling – a method to decrease the effectiveness of seismic monitoring – to hide its activities from the world. China conducted one such…

— Under Secretary of State Thomas G. DiNanno (@UnderSecT) February 6, 2026

The CTBT’s primary verification method is a global network of hundreds of seismic monitoring stations.

As an aside, the last official nuclear test in Russia came in 1990, just before the fall of the Soviet Union. The United Kingdom, France, India, and Pakistan also conducted yield-producing nuclear tests at various points in the 1990s. North Korea is the only country known to have conducted such tests since 2000, with the detonation of five devices in separate instances between 2006 and 2017.

The video below offers an excellent graphical representation of the extent of known nuclear testing, covering detonations between 1945 and 1998.

A Time-Lapse Map of Every Nuclear Explosion Since 1945 – by Isao Hashimoto




At the time of writing, the U.S. government does not appear to have provided further details about the newly alleged Chinese nuclear testing. When American officials arrived at their current assessments about these activities is also unclear.

The U.S. State Department made no mention of any such testing in China in its most recent routine international arms control compliance report, published in April 2025. That report did reiterate previous U.S. accusations that Russia has engaged in supercritical nuclear testing in violation of its commitments to multiple test ban treaties, something DiNanno also highlighted in his speech today. Russia is a signatory to the CTBT and had previously ratified it. Russian President Vladimir Putin revoked that ratification in 2023 after the country’s parliament, or Duma, passed a law approving that action.

The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on Chinese military developments, published in December 2025, also makes no mention of Chinese nuclear testing.

President Trump may have alluded to this allegation in an interview with CBS News‘ “60 Minutes” last November.

“They [China and Russia] don’t go and tell you about it,” Trump said. “You know, as powerful as they are, this is a big world. You don’t necessarily know where they’re testing. They — they test way under — underground where people don’t know exactly what’s happening with the test.”

“You feel a little bit of a vibration. They test and we don’t test,” Trump continued. “But Russia tests, China — and China does test, and we’re gonna test also.”

In an earlier compliance report, the State Department had raised concerns about work China was observed doing at its Lop Nur nuclear test site in 2019. That report was notably published in June 2020, the same month Under Secretary DiNanno says the PLA conducted the yield-producing test.

“China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur, and lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities – which has included frequently blocking the flow of data from its International Monitoring System (IMS) stations to the International Data Center operated by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization – raise concerns regarding its adherence to the ‘zero yield’ standard adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria,” the report explained.

Following Trump’s interview in November 2025, Chinese authorities had pushed back and reiterated the country’s stated commitment to its moratorium on nuclear testing.

“China notes that the U.S. continues in its statement to hype up the so-called China nuclear threat. China firmly opposes such false narratives,” Chinese Ambassador Shen Jian, Deputy Permanent Representative of the People’s Republic of China to the United Nations Office at Geneva and other International Organizations in Switzerland, said today following Under Secretary DiNanno’s remarks, according to Reuters. “It (the United States) is the culprit for the aggravation of the arms race.”

For years now, China has been engaged in a massive expansion of its nuclear arsenal, both in terms of warheads and delivery systems, something that was showcased at a military parade in Beijing last September. This has included the construction of huge new fields of silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles and work on a system that involves launching a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle into orbit, among other new capabilities. The U.S. government has assessed that the Chinese have around 600 warheads in their stockpile at present, but that this number is on track to grow to 1,000 by 2030 and to 1,500 by 2035.

It should also be pointed out that the United States and Russia are both generally assessed to have roughly 4,000 warheads each. The U.S. figure has been declining in recent years, while the Russian one has been growing, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) think tank in Washington, D.C.

As noted, successive U.S. administrations have been pushing for a new nuclear arms control regime that includes China. Negotiations in the past have focused more heavily on bilateral agreements with Russia, and the Soviet Union before it. The most recent of these deals, New START, expired as scheduled yesterday, following the conclusion of a one-time five-year extension. There are still unconfirmed reports that the U.S. and Russia may be working on an interim and non-legally-binding arrangement to keep the New START limits at least for some amount of time, as you can read more about here.

“New START was signed in 2010 and its limits on warheads and launchers are no longer relevant in 2026, when one nuclear power is expanding its arsenal at a scale and pace not seen in over half a century and another continues to maintain and develop a vast range of nuclear systems unconstrained by New START’s terms,” Under Secretary DiNanno also said in remarks today. “[China’s] buildup is opaque and unconstrained by any arms control limitations.”

“Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future,” President Trump had written yesterday on his Truth Social platform.

Trump:

Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future. pic.twitter.com/MPlDNeTWLZ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 5, 2026

“The President’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio also said during a press conference on Wednesday in response to a question about New START.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The President has been clear that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China — because of their vast & rapidly growing stockpile. pic.twitter.com/FiYVUsBAVb

— Dylan Johnson (@ASDylanJohnson) February 5, 2026

Chinese officials have repeatedly rebuffed calls to join negotiations on a new nuclear arms control agreement.

The allegations Under Secretary DiNanno raised today prompt new questions about the future of U.S. nuclear testing, as well. As mentioned, there has been little elaboration on exactly what President Trump meant by his announcement last year about future testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. At that time, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright had downplayed the possibility of a resumption of American yield-producing nuclear tests.

“Since the President’s statement, we have received many questions about what he meant,” DiNanno said during his speech in Geneva today, before diving into the accusations about Chinese and Russian tests. However, the Under Secretary did not explicitly say whether or not this meant the United States intends to conduct its own testing at this level going forward. He did say later on in his remarks that the U.S. government is committed to efforts to “restore responsible behavior when it comes to nuclear testing.”

You can read more about what it would actually take for the U.S. government to resume full-scale nuclear testing in this previous TWZ feature.

The end of New START has already been fueling renewed concerns about a new nuclear arms race, and one that would not necessarily be limited to the United States, Russia, and China.

Following today’s revelations in Geneva, more details at least about the new U.S. allegations about Chinese nuclear testing activities may begin to emerge.

Update: 1:50 PM EST –

In light of today’s remarks from Under Secretary DiNanno, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization’s (CTBTO) Executive Secretary Robert Floyd has issued a statement.

”The CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS) is capable of detecting nuclear test explosions with a yield equivalent to or greater than approximately 500 tonnes of TNT, including detecting all six tests conducted and declared by the DPRK [North Korea]. Below 500 tonnes is roughly 3 percent of the yield of the explosion that devastated Hiroshima,” Floyd says. “Mechanisms which could address smaller explosions are provided by the Treaty but can only be used once the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty enters into force. That is why it is important that the nuclear arms control framework includes the entry into force of the CTBT.  The need is more urgent now than ever.”

“Regarding reports of possible nuclear tests with yields in the hundreds of tonnes, on 22 June 2020, the CTBTO’s IMS did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test explosion at that time. Subsequent, more detailed analyses have not altered that determination,” he adds. “Any nuclear test explosion, by any state, is of deepest concern.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




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South Korea seeks closer China cooperation on rare earth supply

South Korean Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan speaks at a meeting with companies in Daegu Thursday to discuss the government’s measures to stabilize the rare earth supply chain. Photo courtesy of South Korea Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources

SEOUL, Feb. 5 (UPI) — South Korea will seek closer cooperation with China to stabilize supplies of rare earth minerals critical to its high-tech industries, the government said Thursday, as Seoul unveiled a strategy to strengthen supply chain security.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources announced a comprehensive plan calling for expanded cooperation channels with Beijing, including the establishment of a government-to-government hotline and joint consultative body to help prevent supply disruptions.

The initiative comes as South Korea, one of the world’s top high-tech exporters, remains heavily reliant on imported raw materials essential to manufacturing.

“South Korea has developed advanced industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles and batteries, but as a resource-importing country, we face many challenges in managing supply chains,” Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said during a visit to a rare earth magnet manufacturer in Daegu.

“Our national competitiveness depends on industrial resource security, and the government will focus its policy capabilities on building a resilient industrial structure that is not shaken by external changes,” he said.

Rare earth elements — a group of 17 metals used in components such as permanent magnets, electric motors and advanced electronics — are widely considered vital to next-generation manufacturing. China’s dominance of rare earth processing and refining has left global manufacturers vulnerable to export controls and geopolitical tensions.

Under the plan, South Korea will designate all 17 rare earth elements as core strategic minerals and create new customs classification codes to improve monitoring and demand forecasting.

Seoul also aims to expand domestic production and recycling capacity through regulatory reforms and subsidies for new facilities, while creating a dedicated rare earth research and development fund under an existing industrial innovation investment program.

To support overseas supply diversification, the government will increase policy loans for overseas resource development to $46.2 million this year, up from $26.6 million in 2025, while expanding the state financing coverage ratio to 70% from 50%, the ministry said.

Beyond China, South Korea said it will pursue supply partnerships with countries including Vietnam and Laos as part of efforts to diversify procurement channels and reduce reliance on any single supplier.

The announcement comes a day after South Korea was tapped to chair Washington’s Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, or FORGE, a U.S.-led framework aimed at strengthening supply chain resilience among allied economies for critical minerals and emerging technologies.

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China criticizes decision to award a Grammy to the Dalai Lama

Beijing on Monday criticized the Dalai Lama ’s first Grammy win, describing the music industry award for an audiobook, narration and storytelling as “a tool for anti-China political manipulation.”

The Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader, who lives in exile in India, took the award on Sunday for his book, “Meditations: The Reflections of His Holiness the Dalai Lama.”

He said in a statement on his website that he saw the award “as a recognition of our shared universal responsibility.”

“I receive this recognition with gratitude and humility,” he added.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said: “It is well known that the 14th Dalai Lama is not merely a religious figure but a political exile engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the guise of religion.”

“We firmly oppose the relevant party using the award as a tool for anti-China political manipulation,” he added.

The Dalai Lama, who is seen by many as the face of Tibet’s struggle for autonomy, has lived in exile since 1959, when Chinese troops crushed an uprising in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa.

China, which governs Tibet as an autonomous region, has been accused of trying to stamp out the Tibetan language, culture and identity.

Beijing and the Dalai Lama also spar over the spiritual leader’s eventual successor. Tibetan Buddhists believe the Dalai Lamas are reincarnations of a spiritual leader first born in 1391.

Beijing maintains the next Dalai Lama will be born in Tibet and recognized by the ruling Communist Party, whereas the Dalai Lama has said his successor will be from a free country and that China has no role in the process.

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China carries out further executions of Myanmar scam centre suspects | Crime News

The executions are part of broader crackdown by Beijing on centres across Southeast Asia, which are built on an industrial scale and hunt scam victims across the globe, as well as running kidnapping, prostitution and drugs rackets.

China has executed four people found guilty of causing six Chinese citizens’ deaths and running scam and gambling operations out of Myanmar worth more than $4bn.

The Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court in southern China announced the executions on Monday morning in a statement. However, the timing of the executions was not clear.

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The executions of 11 other people convicted of running scam centres in Myanmar had been announced last week.

The Shenzhen court sentenced five people accused of running a network of scam centres and casinos to death in November. One of the defendants, group leader Bai Suocheng, died of illness before the sentence was carried out.

The group had established industrial parks in Myanmar’s Kokang region bordering China, from where they allegedly ran gambling and telecom scam operations involving abductions, extortion, forced prostitution, and drug manufacturing and trafficking.

They defrauded victims of more than 29 billion yuan ($4.2bn) and caused the deaths of six Chinese citizens and injuries to others, the court said.

Their crimes “were exceptionally heinous, with particularly serious circumstances and consequences, posing a tremendous threat to society”, the court’s statement said.

The defendants appealed the verdict, but the Guangdong Provincial High People’s Court dismissed their applications, it added.

The executions are part of a broader crackdown by Beijing on scam operations in Southeast Asia, where scam parks have become an industrial-scale business, especially in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

A mix of trafficked and willing labour has carried out digital scams on victims around the world, including thousands of Chinese citizens.

Authorities in the region face growing international pressure from China, the United States and other nations to address the proliferation of crime.

Experts say most of the centres are run by Chinese-led crime syndicates working with Myanmar armed groups, taking advantage of the country’s instability amid the ongoing war.

Myanmar’s military government has long been accused of turning a blind eye, but it has trumpeted a crackdown over the last year after being lobbied by key military backer China, experts say.

In October, more than 2,000 people were arrested in a raid on KK Park, an infamous scam centre on Myanmar’s border with Thailand.

However, some raids mounted by the government have been part of a propaganda effort, according to monitors, choreographed to vent pressure from Beijing without denting profits that enrich the military’s militia allies.

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China ends sanctions on 6 British MPs

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) on Friday announced China ended its sanctions on six ministers of Parliament a day after arriving for a state visit to China in Beijing. Photo by Lauren Hurley/EPA

Jan. 30 (UPI) — Six British ministers of Parliament, including two peers, no longer are sanctioned by China, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Friday.

Starmer confirmed the sanctions — imposed over criticisms of China’s treatment of its Muslim-minority Uyghur population — immediately were lifted amid warming relations between China and Britain. He made the announcement during a diplomatic trip to Beijing.

“I raised that issue whilst I was here,” Starmer said while interviewed in China. “The Chinese are absolutely clear in their response: The restrictions no longer apply.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping said all British members of Parliament were welcome in China, Starmer told the BBC.

The sanctions included a now-lifted travel ban. Starmer said their removal affirms the effectiveness of his diplomatic approach to the matter.

The prime minister also said he hopes Xi will attend the 2027 G20 summit scheduled to take place in Britain.

China imposed the sanctions on nine Britons, including five Conservative Party ministers and two members of the House of Lords, in 2021 after they raised concerns about human rights violations by China against Uyghurs, a Muslim population in northwest China.

China’s population is more than 90% Han, while Uyghurs account for less than 1% of its people.

The affected MPs and peers said they find “no comfort” in the lifting of sanctions.

Sanctions remain in place for others, and the ministers said they “will not be silenced” on the matter.

China has pressured foreign governments to forcibly return Uyghurs and others to China, “where they are subject to torture and enforced disappearances,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March.

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Shipping giant Maersk to take over Panama Canal ports after court ruling | International Trade News

Danish company will replace Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison, after Trump claimed strategic waterway was controlled by China.

Danish firm Maersk will temporarily operate two ports on the Panama Canal after a court ruled that contracts given to a Hong Kong firm were unconstitutional.

The Panama Maritime Authority (AMP) announced the changes on Friday, a day after the Central American country’s Supreme Court invalidated port contracts held by Hong Kong-based firm CK Hutchison.

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The court ruling followed repeated threats from United States President Donald Trump that his country would seek to take over the waterway he claimed was effectively being controlled by China.

According to the court ruling that annulled the deal, CK Hutchison’s contract to operate the ports had “disproportionate bias” towards the Hong Kong-based company.

On Friday, the AMP said port operator APM Terminals, part of the Maersk Group, would take over as the “temporary administrator” of the Balboa and Cristobal ports on either end of the canal.

Maersk takes over from the Panama Ports Company (PPC) – a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings – which has managed the ports since 1997 under a concession renewed in 2021 for 25 years.

The canal, an artificial waterway, handles about 40 percent of US container shipping traffic and 5 percent of world trade. It has been controlled by Panama since 1999, when the US, which funded the building of the canal between 1904 and 1914, ceded control.

Washington on Friday welcomed the decision, but China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Beijing “will take all measures necessary to firmly protect the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies”.

For its part, PPC said the ruling “lacks legal basis and endangers … the welfare and stability of thousands of Panamanian families” who depend on its operations.

Tens of thousands of workers dug the 82km- (51-mile-) passageway that became the Panama Canal, allowing ships to pass from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic without having to travel around the northernmost or southernmost ends of the Americas.

Panama has always denied Chinese control of the canal, which is used mainly by the US and China.

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F/A-XX Naval Fighter Needed For Adversaries Like Iran, Not Just China and Russia: Navy Boss

The U.S. Navy’s top officer says global proliferation of increasingly capable air defense systems underscores the vital need to move ahead with work on the F/A-XX next-generation carrier-based fighter. He further warned that the Navy’s “ability to fly with impunity” using non-stealthy types like the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, even against smaller nation-state adversaries like Iran and non-state actors, is now “fleeting.”

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Daryl Caudle talked about F/A-XX and the threat ecosystem during a live question-and-answer session at the Apex Defense conference in Washington, D.C., yesterday. Breaking Defense was first to report on Caudle’s remarks. F/A-XX has been in purgatory since the Pentagon announced its intention to shelve it last year, primarily to prevent any competition for resources with the U.S. Air Force’s F-47 sixth-generation fighter. Congress is now pushing ahead with legislation that could jumpstart the Navy’s next-generation fighter program. Boeing and Northrop Grumman are currently in the running for F/A-XX. Lockheed Martin was reportedly eliminated from the competition last March. Boeing is also the prime contractor for the F-47.

A rendering of Northrop Grumman’s proposed F/A-XX design. Northrop Grumman

The “next-generation airframe, F/A-XX, is so vital,” Caudle said yesterday. “This [carrier] air wing of the future design is so important for so many reasons … nothing delivers the mass of an air wing if you want to deliver mass fires.”

“I know these things are expensive, and I know the defense industrial base is compressed, but we have got to figure out how to walk and chew gum here with aircraft,” he added. It is worth noting here that both Boeing and Northrop Grumman have pushed back publicly, to different degrees, on concerns that the U.S. industrial base cannot support work on two sixth-generation fighter programs simultaneously.

You can listen to Adm. Caudle’s full opening remarks at the Apex Defense conference and the follow-on question-and-answer session in the video below.

CNO APEX REMARKS




Caudle has long been outspoken in his support for F/A-XX, which is the Navy’s planned successor to its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets. In addition to being very stealthy, the sixth-generation jets would come with increased range and other advancements, giving the Navy’s carrier air wings a major boost in kinetic capability. F/A-XX will also be able to perform electronic warfare and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, as well as contribute to battle space management.

The CNO highlighted many of these expected capabilities in his comments yesterday. He also called particular attention to how “vital” F/A-XX will be because of “the CCAs [Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones] that it will command and control.”

A rendering depicting members of General Atomics Gambit drone family operating from a U.S. Navy Ford class aircraft carrier. General Atomics is one of four companies now under contract to the Navy to develop conceptual carrier-based CCA designs. General Atomics

“But the bigger part is … just the ever-lowering cost of entry” when it comes to air defense threats, Caudle said. “The folks that used to be not in [the] headspace that I needed a stealth aircraft of this level to fly a mission into their country, will gain capability that the F-18 will not match against.”

“This is an ever-evolving theme, and when you’ve got partnerships … well coupled with each other across China and Russia and Iran and North Korea, and terrorist groups that are getting that kit from all of those through back-channel ways, our ability to fly with impunity with our existing airframes is fleeting,” he continued. “So, if I don’t start building that [F/A-XX] immediately, you’re not going to get it for some time.”

“I hate to say it, sounds cliche, but you know, when things heat up in Iran, guess who steamed over there? Right? It was the United States Navy and the Abraham [Lincoln Carrier] Strike Group,” the Navy’s top officer added. “So you can imagine what that looks like 10 years from now, with a different Iran, with different capability, that can go against F-18 capabilities of today.”

An F/A-18E Super Hornet seen landing aboard the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in January 2026. USN

U.S. military operations in and around the Middle East in the past two years have provided substantial evidence to underscore Caudle’s remarks. There were multiple reported instances in which Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen were able to threaten existing fourth and fifth-generation U.S. fighters, at least to a degree, with their relatively modest air defense capabilities. Sources differ on the total number, but the Houthis were also able to successfully down 20 or so MQ-9 Reaper drones.

🇾🇪🇺🇸 | The Houthis show footage from the shootdown of another U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper UCAV.

If I’m not mistaken, that would be the 20th MQ-9 downed by the Houthis from Yemen. pic.twitter.com/SCwRVLSs7s

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) April 18, 2025

TWZ has previously explored in detail the scale and scope of Houthi air defenses, as well as their ability to punch above their weight, and not just against U.S. forces. Infrared sensors and seekers, including the repurposing of heat-seeking air-to-air missiles as surface-to-air weapons, have been a major factor, given that they are not impacted by radar cross-section-reducing features on stealthy targets. They are also passive, meaning that they do not pump out signals that can give opponents advanced warning that they are being tracked and targeted.

Examples of heat-seeking air-to-air missiles that the Houthis have repurposed as surface-to-air weapons. Houthi-controlled media

Infrared capabilities can also help in cueing traditional radars, and pairing the two together offers benefits for spotting and tracking targets, whether they have features to reduce their radar and other signatures or not. This also just allows the radars to not have to start radiating (and expose themselves as a result) until very late in the engagement cycle. The Houthis have also focused heavily on mobile systems that are hard to find and fix in advance, and that present additional complications given their ability to pop up suddenly in unexpected locations.

Houthi Fater-1 radar-guided surface-to-air missiles on parade in 2023. The Fater-1 is a copy or clone of the Soviet 3M9 used in the 2K12 Kub/SA-6 mobile surface-to-air missile system. Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

The air defense assets the Houthis have arrayed over the past decade or so are directly reflective of developments in Iran, which has put a similar focus on infrared capabilities and mobile systems. Though B-2 stealth bombers were the centerpiece of the Operation Midnight Hammer strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last year, stealthy F-22 and F-35 fighters were still used to help clear the way by targeting air defense sites in the country.

The Tabas road-mobile surface-to-air missile system seen here is one of the more modern types in Iranian service. Iranian State Media

This all, in many ways, reflects broader air defense global trends that have been emerging in China, Russia, North Korea, and elsewhere. As Adm. Caudle noted yesterday, there has also been cooperation on various levels between America’s adversaries, well beyond Iran and the Houthis, on the development and proliferation of more capable air defense systems.

The threat picture also goes beyond individual anti-air weapons and sensors. Fully-networked integrated air defenses, which offer a multitude of benefits when it comes to operational flexibility and more efficiently utilizing available resources, are only set to become a bigger part of the equation. These networks will be able to detect, successfully track, and engage targets in ways that federated air defense systems cannot. The barrier to entry in acquiring these capabilities is likely to keep dropping as time goes on, as well.

The Navy does still, of course, see F/A-XX as critical to projecting carrier-based airpower into denser, higher-end air defense threat ecosystems, especially in any future conflicts against a major competitor like China or Russia. A year ago, the U.S. Air Force released a report projecting that American aircraft will be challenged by anti-air missiles with ranges up to 1,000 miles by 2050.

“This [F/A-XX] is, again, a global solution, not just for a pressing scenario,” Adm. Caudle said yesterday.

As an aside, it is interesting to point out that the air defense arsenal of another smaller country, Syria, has been credited with helping ensure the F-22 survived post-Cold War drawdowns in defense spending. The program was severely truncated later on as a cost-cutting measure, a decision that has been increasingly questioned in hindsight.

The F/A-XX saga still has yet to play out, but Iranian air defenses, in particular, look to have emerged as a major factor in whatever the future might hold for that program.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




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What do China and the UK want from each other? | Xi Jinping News

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s warm welcome on a visit to China this week marks a thaw in icy relations with Beijing.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in China this week with a large delegation of businesspeople and cultural figures.

He received a warm welcome from Chinese President Xi Jinping.

But the visit got a frosty reception from the White House, with United States President Donald Trump calling Starmer’s trip “dangerous”.

What prompted Trump’s remarks? And how important was the British prime minister’s visit?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Will Hutton – Political economist

Andy Mok – Senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization

Steve Tsang – Director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London

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Starmer, Xi hail ‘reset’ of relations between Britain and China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (3-L) meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (2-R) on Thursday in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. It was first visit to China by a British leader in eight years. Photo by Vincent Thian/EPA

Jan. 29 (UPI) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emerged from a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday to pronounce that ties between the two countries were back on track, with progress made on trade, tourism and business travel and disrupting illegal migration.

Speaking to reporters after his 80-minute meeting with Xi in the Great Hall of the People, the first by any British leader in eight years, Starmer said it was “very good, productive session with concrete outcomes” that represented a substantive advance.

“It was a real strengthening of the relationship and that’s in the national interest because, of course, there are huge opportunities here in China. A lot of the discussion was about how we open up access for those opportunities, focusing, as I always do, on how this is going to be delivered back in the United Kingdom, how does it benefit people back at home,” he said.

Starmer said headway had been made on Scottish whisky tariffs, visa-free travel to China for Britons and a border security deal on deporting illegal immigrants from Britain, tackling Chinese gangs producing synthetic opioids, and cutting off the flow of Chinese-made marine engines used by people smugglers moving migrants across the English Channel in small boats.

Starmer’s meeting with Xi ran for more than double the period of time scheduled for the talks.

Downing Street later confirmed British citizens would be permitted visits for tourism or business purposes of up to 30 days without a visa.

On issues where they did not see eye to eye, the two sides agreed to “maintain frank and open dialogue,” according to the readout from No. 10.

Starmer insisted he raised human rights at the meeting, including the treatment of the Uyghur minority in China and media mogul and democracy activist Jimmy Lai, a British citizen who has been in prison in Hong Kong since 2020 on sedition and other charges.

He said they had a “respectful discussion” and that his Chinese hosts had listened, with Starmer pointing out that the opportunity to raise “issues we disagree on” was part of the rationale for engagement.

Praising the contributions of past Labour governments to building Sino-British ties, Xi said that China stood ready to move beyond the “twist and turns” to develop a “long-term relationship” with Britain and “consistent, comprehensive, strategic partnership” that would benefit both peoples and the wider world.

However, no major deal or breakthrough came out of the meeting with the only agreement thus far a $20.7 billion investment in China through 2030 by U.K. pharma-giant AstraZeneca to expand its Chinese operation, particularly its work on anti-cancer cell therapy.

The Conservatives’ shadow national security minister, Alicia Kearns, who had urged Starmer to make the release of Lai and the lifting of sanctions on British MPs a condition of his visit, doubled down on her criticism.

“Keir Starmer’s visit tells the Chinese Communist Party they can carry on just as they are,” she wrote on X.

Picketers hold signs outside at the entrance to Mount Sinai Hospital on Monday in New York City. Nearly 15,000 nurses across New York City are now on strike after no agreement was reached ahead of the deadline for contract negotiations. It is the largest nurses’ strike in NYC’s history. The hospital locations impacted by the strike include Mount Sinai Hospital, Mount Sinai Morningside, Mount Sinai West, Montefiore Hospital and New York Presbyterian Hospital. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

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Why is the UK’s Keir Starmer in China and what does he want to achieve? | News

United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on a three-day state visit to China as he seeks to deepen economic and security ties with the world’s second-largest economy after years of acrimonious relations.

This is the first trip by a UK prime minister to China since Theresa May met Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2018.

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Here’s what you need to know about the trip aimed at mending ties at a time of global uncertainties:

What’s on Starmer’s agenda for China?

The UK PM met Xi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Thursday. He will next head to Shanghai to meet British and Chinese business leaders, according to his official itinerary.

After their meeting on Thursday, Starmer and Xi called for a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between the two nations.

“China-UK relations experienced setbacks in previous years, which were not in the interests of either country,” Xi said. “In the current complex and ever-changing international situation … China and the UK need to strengthen dialogue and cooperation to maintain world peace and stability.”

In his opening remarks, Starmer told Xi the two nations should “work together on issues like climate change, global stability during challenging times”.

The prime minister is accompanied by a delegation of nearly 60 representatives of businesses and cultural organisations, including banking conglomerate HSBC, pharmaceutical giant GSK, carmaker Jaguar Land Rover and the UK’s National Theatre.

Starmer told Bloomberg there will be “significant opportunities” for UK businesses in China in an interview this week in the run-up to his trip.

His trip is also expected to mark a reset in UK-China relations, which have been strained in recent years. Starmer underlined his intentions during his meeting with Xi on Thursday.

“China is a vital player on the global stage, and it’s vital that we build a more sophisticated relationship where we can identify opportunities to collaborate, but of course, also allow a meaningful dialogue on areas where we disagree,” Starmer told Xi, according to the Reuters news agency.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chinese President Xi Jinping
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, fourth right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, fifth left, with their delegations participate in a bilateral meeting in Beijing on Thursday, January 29, 2026. [Carl Court/Pool Photo via AP Photo]

Why does the UK want to reset its relationship with China?

Starmer has framed his trip to China as a pragmatic move despite ongoing concerns back home about Beijing’s human rights record and potential national security threat.

“Like it or not, China matters for the UK,” Starmer said in advance of his trip to Beijing.

“As one of the world’s biggest economic players, a strategic and consistent relationship with them is firmly in our national interest. That does not mean turning a blind eye to the challenges they pose – but engaging even where we disagree,” he said.

China has rejected the allegations of human rights violations in parts of the country.

While few details have been released yet, Jing Gu, a political economist research fellow at the UK’s Institute of Development Studies, said reviving economic ties would require expanded “market access, predictable regulation and fair treatment of UK firms” alongside clear “guardrails”.

“This is not a question of being ‘pro-China’ or ‘anti-China’,” she said in a statement.

China offers a potential economic lifeline to the UK, whose economy has struggled in the decade since it embarked on its departure from the European Union in 2016.

A report by the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States estimated last year that Brexit reduced UK gross domestic product (GDP) by 6 to 8 percent, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. Investment is also down 12 to 18 percent, according to NBER estimates, and employment is down 3 to 4 percent.

The UK’s GDP is estimated to grow 1.4 percent in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs, as it faces new economic challenges from US President Donald Trump’s decisions and announcements.

The UK was not exempt from Trump’s tariff war despite its decades-long “special relationship” with the US. As a NATO member, the UK has also watched with alarm as Trump recently threatened to annex Greenland and impose up to 25 percent tariffs on any country that opposed him.

Starmer is not the only US ally looking to diversify economic ties. His trip to China follows in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

What strained the UK’s relationship with China?

The UK has longstanding concerns with China’s human rights record, but its relationship with Beijing took a turn for the worse after mass antigovernment protests swept Hong Kong, a former British colony, in 2019.

The UK was alarmed by the political crackdown that followed the 2019 protests and Beijing’s decision to impose legislation in 2020 that criminalised “secession, subversion, terrorist activities, and collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.

In the aftermath, the UK opened a special immigration scheme for the citizens of Hong Kong born before the city’s 1997 return to Chinese sovereignty. British officials have continued to criticise Hong Kong’s national security trials, including the prosecution of pro-democracy businessman Jimmy Lai, who is a UK citizen.

Allegations of Chinese spying in the UK and China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war have also frayed the ties.

Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, told Al Jazeera that he did not expect any concessions in this area during Starmer’s visit. “Beijing will work to support Starmer to present the visit as a success, but it will not make any concession in areas that matter to China, such as human rights,” he said.

What about security concerns?

Concerns about Chinese spying have been a front-page issue in the UK over the past year, with the head of the domestic intelligence agency MI5 recently saying “Chinese state actors” pose a national security threat “every day”.

Despite these worries, Starmer’s government this month approved Beijing’s plan to open a “mega embassy” in London that critics say could become a hub for espionage in Europe.

The embassy’s approval also follows the collapse of a legal case against two British men charged with spying for China. The decision by prosecutors to withdraw charges at the eleventh hour remains highly controversial in the UK.

China has denied the spying claims, with its Ministry of Foreign Affairs calling them “unfounded” accusations.

Starmer’s trip, however, emphasised areas of potential security cooperation between China and the UK.

Following his meeting with Xi, the Prime Minister’s Office announced that law enforcement would cooperate with Chinese authorities to stem the flow of synthetic opioids into the UK and cut off the supply of small boat engines to criminal gangs.

Engine-powered boats are used to smuggle people across the English Channel, according to Starmer’s office.

The agreement will include “intelligence sharing to identify smugglers’ supply routes and direct engagement with Chinese manufacturers to prevent legitimate businesses being exploited by organised crime”, his office said.

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Is the global economic order unravelling? | Business and Economy

As the United States pushes its ‘America First’ agenda, its partners are edging towards China and new alliances are being formed.

It was built on democracy, open markets and cooperation – with America at the helm.

But the rules-based global order created after World War II is now under strain. Conflicts are rising. International rules are being tested. Trade tensions are escalating. And alliances are shifting.

At the centre of it all is US President Donald Trump.

In just a few short weeks, he’s captured Venezuela’s president, vowed to take control of Greenland, and threatened to slap tariffs on those who oppose him.

Meanwhile, China is presenting itself as a stable partner.

Many warn that the global order is starting to break apart.

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China’s Xi Jinping, UK’s Kier Starmer agree to deepen economic ties | Xi Jinping News

British PM Keir Starmer’s China visit is the first by a UK leader in eight years and marks a thaw in frosty relations.

The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer has met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in the first trip of its kind by a British leader in eight years.

Starmer said before his trip that doing business with China was the pragmatic choice and it was time for a “mature” relationship with the world’s second-largest economy.

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“I have long been clear that the UK and China need a long-term, consistent and comprehensive strategic partnership,” Starmer said on Thursday.

During their meeting, Starmer told Xi that he hopes the two leaders can “identify opportunities to collaborate, but also allow a meaningful dialogue on areas where we disagree”.

Xi stressed the need for more “dialogue and cooperation” amid a “complex and intertwined” international situation.

The meeting between the two leaders in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Thursday was due to last about 40 minutes, and will be followed by another meeting between Starmer and Chinese Premier Li Qiang later in the day.

Starmer is in China for three days and is accompanied by a delegation representing nearly 50 UK businesses and cultural organisations, including HSBC, British Airways, AstraZeneca and GSK.

The last trip by a UK prime minister was in 2018, when Theresa May visited Beijing.

Strengthening economic and security cooperation was at the top of the agenda during the Xi-Starmer meeting, according to Al Jazeera correspondent Katrina Yu.

“[Starmer] has the very big task of bringing this diplomatic relationship out of years of deep freeze, so the focus when he talks to Xi Jinping will be finding areas of common ground,” Yu said from Beijing.

China was the UK’s fourth-largest trading partner in 2025, with bilateral trade worth $137bn, according to UK government data.

Starmer is seeking to deepen those ties with Xi despite criticism at home around China’s human rights record and its status as a potential national security threat.

Besides business dealings, Starmer and Xi are also expected to announce further cooperation in the area of law enforcement to reduce the trafficking of undocumented immigrants into the UK by criminal gangs.

Relations between the UK and China have been frosty since Beijing launched a political crackdown in Hong Kong, a former British colony, following months of antigovernment protests in 2019.

London has also criticised the prosecution in Hong Kong of the pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who is also a British citizen, on national security charges.

Starmer’s trip to China comes as both Beijing and London’s relationship with the United States is under strain from President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

Trump’s recent threats to annex Greenland have also raised alarm among NATO members, including the UK.

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Rubio stands by Venezuela attack, says Trump retains authority to use force

Secretary of State Marco Rubio left the door open Wednesday to future U.S. military action in Venezuela, telling lawmakers that while the Trump administration does not anticipate further escalation, the president retains the authority to use force if Venezuela’s interim leadership or other American adversaries defy U.S. demands.

Rubio’s remarks came hours after President Trump deployed what he called a “massive armada” to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons program, amid broader questions about how recent U.S. tensions with Denmark over Greenland are affecting American relations with NATO allies.

“The president never rules out his options as commander in chief to protect the national interest of the United States,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “I can tell you right now with full certainty, we are not postured to, nor do we intend or expect to take any military action in Venezuela at any time.”

The appearance marked Rubio’s first public testimony before a congressional panel since U.S. forces seized former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and brought him to New York to face narco-trafficking charges nearly a month ago. Rubio was pressed by Democratic lawmakers over congressional war powers and whether the operation had meaningfully advanced democracy in Venezuela.

“We’ve traded one dictator for another. All the same people are running the country,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Acting President Delcy Rodríguez “has taken no steps to diminish Iran, China or Russia’s considerable influence in Venezuela.”

Rodríguez, who formerly served as Maduro’s vice president, has committed to opening Venezuela’s energy sector to American companies, providing preferential access to production and using revenues to purchase American goods, according to Rubio’s testimony.

But questions remain about Rodríguez’s own alleged ties to trafficking networks. The Associated Press reported that she has been on the DEA’s radar for years for suspected involvement in drug and gold smuggling, though no public criminal charges have been filed.

And despite Trump’s warning that Rodríguez would “pay a very big price” if she does not cooperate, she has pushed back in public against U.S. pressure over trade policy.

“We have the right to have diplomatic relations with China, with Russia, with Iran, with Cuba, with all the peoples of the world. Also with the United States. We are a sovereign nation,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.

Venezuela is among the largest recipients of Chinese loans globally, with more than $100 billion committed over recent decades. Much of that debt has been repaid through discounted oil shipments under an oil-for-loans framework, financing Chinese-backed infrastructure projects and helping stabilize successive Venezuelan governments.

U.S. military leaders have warned Congress about Iran’s growing strategic presence in the hemisphere, including concerns over ballistic missile capabilities and the supply of attack and surveillance drones to Venezuela.

“If an Iranian drone factory pops up and threatens our forces in the region,” Rubio said, “the president retains the option to eliminate that.”

Democrats also argued that the administration’s broader foreign policy is undercutting U.S. economic strength and alliances, particularly in competition with China.

Despite Trump’s tariff campaign, China posted a record global trade surplus in 2025, lawmakers noted, while estimates show U.S. manufacturing employment has declined by tens of thousands of jobs since the tariffs took effect.

Senators pushed back on the State Department’s assertion that U.S. policy has unified allies against China, arguing instead that tariffs and recent military escalations involving Greenland, Iran and Venezuela have strained relations with key partners. They pointed to Canada as an example, noting that Ottawa recently reached a trade deal with China amid concerns about the reliability of the United States as a partner.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a Republican dissenter on Venezuela, rejected the Trump administration’s framing of Maduro’s capture as a law enforcement operation rather than an act of war.

He pressed Rubio on congressional authorization.

“If we said that a foreign country invaded our capital, bombed all our air defense — which would be an extensive bombing campaign, and it was — removed our president, and then blockaded the country, we would think it was an act of war,” Paul said as he left the hearing.

Congressional Republicans voted to dismiss a war powers resolution earlier this month that would have limited Trump’s ability to conduct further attacks on Venezuela after two GOP senators reversed course on supporting the legislation.

They did so based on informal assurances from the administration that it would consult members of Congress before taking military action.

“I was a big fan of [congressional] consultation when I was sitting over there,” Rubio said, joking about his tenure as a senator on the committee. “Now, you know, it’s a different job, different time.”

The War Powers Act dictates how the executive must manage military operations, including that the administration must notify Congress within 48 hours of a military operation.

“And if it’s going to last longer than 60 days, we have to come to Congress with it. We don’t anticipate either of these things having to happen,” Rubio said.

He added that the administration’s end goal is “a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela,” and cautioned that free and fair elections would take time as the administration works with Rodríguez to stabilize the country.

“You can have elections all day, but if the opposition has no access to the media … those aren’t free and fair elections,” Rubio said. “There’s a percentage of the Venezuelan population … that may not have liked Maduro, but are still committed to Chavista ideology. They’ll be represented in that platform as well.”

Rubio fell short of providing concrete timelines, prompting skepticism from lawmakers who cited ongoing reports that political prisoners remain jailed and that opposition figures such as Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado would still be blocked from seeking office. He will meet with Machado this week to discuss her role in the ongoing regime change.

“I’ve known Maria Corina for probably 12 or 13 years,” Rubio said. “I’ve dealt with her probably more than anybody.”

But the reality on the ground remains difficult, he said, adding the administration has hedged its bets on the existing Venezuelan government to comply with U.S. efforts to stabilize the economy and weed out political violence before fair elections can be held.

“The people that control the guns and the institutions of government there are in the hands of this regime,” Rubio said.

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China pitches itself as a reliable partner as Trump alienates US allies | International Trade News

China is showcasing itself as a solid business and trading partner to traditional allies of the United States and others who have been alienated by President Donald Trump’s politics, and some of them appear ready for a reset.

Since the start of 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping has received South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Irish leader Micheal Martin.

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This week, United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on a three-day visit to Beijing, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to visit China for the first time in late February.

Among these visitors, five are treaty allies of the US, but all have been hit over the past year by the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” trade tariffs, as well as additional duties on key exports like steel, aluminium, autos and auto parts.

Canada, Finland, Germany and the UK found themselves in a NATO standoff with Trump this month over his desire to annex Greenland and threats that he would impose additional tariffs on eight European countries he said were standing in his way, including the UK and Finland. Trump has since backed down from this threat.

China’s renewed sales pitch

While China has long sought to present itself as a viable alternative to the post-war US-led international order, its sales pitch took on renewed energy at the World Economic Forum‘s (WEF) annual summit in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this month.

As Trump told world leaders that the US had become “the hottest country, anywhere in the world” thanks to surging investment and tariff revenues, and Europe would “do much better” to follow the US lead, Chinese Vice Premier Li Hefeng’s speech emphasised China’s ongoing support for multilateralism and free trade.

“While economic globalisation is not perfect and may cause some problems, we cannot completely reject it and retreat to self-imposed isolation,” Li said.

“The right approach should be, and can only be, to find solutions together through dialogue.”

Li also criticised the “unilateral acts and trade deals of certain countries” – a reference to Trump’s trade war – that “clearly violate the fundamental principles and principles of the [World Trade Organization] and severely impact the global economic and trade order”.

Li also told the WEF that “every country is entitled to defend its legitimate rights and interests”, a point that could be understood to apply as much to China’s claims over places like Taiwan as to Denmark’s dominion over Greenland.

“In many ways, China has chosen to cast itself in the role of a stable and responsible global actor in the midst of the disruption that we are seeing from the US. Reiterating its support for the United Nations system and global rules has often been quite enough to bolster China’s standing, especially among countries of the Global South,” Bjorn Cappelin, an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre, told Al Jazeera.

The West is listening

John Gong, a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told Al Jazeera that the recent series of trips by European leaders to China shows that the Global North is listening, too. Other notable signs include the UK’s approval of a Chinese “mega embassy” in London, Gong said, and progress in a years-long trade dispute over Chinese exports of electric vehicles (EVs) to Europe.

Starmer is also expected to pursue more trade and investment deals with Beijing this week, according to UK media.

“A series of events happening in Europe seems to suggest an adjustment of Europe’s China policy – for the better, of course – against the backdrop of what is emanating from Washington against Europe,” Gong told Al Jazeera.

The shifting diplomatic calculations are also clear in Canada, which has shown a renewed willingness to deepen economic ties with China after several spats with Trump over the past year.

Carney’s is the first visit to Beijing by a Canadian prime minister since Justin Trudeau went in 2017, and he came away with a deal that saw Beijing agree to ease tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports and Ottawa to ease tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Trump lashed out at news of the deal, threatening 100 percent trade tariffs on Canada if the deal goes ahead.

In a statement last weekend on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote that Carney was “sorely mistaken” if he thought Canada could become a “‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States”.

The meeting between Carney and Xi this month also thawed years of frosty relations after Canada arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in late 2018 at the behest of the US. Beijing subsequently arrested two Canadians in a move that was widely seen as retaliation. They were released in 2021 after Meng reached a deferred agreement with prosecutors in New York.

In Davos, Carney told world leaders that there had been a “rupture in the world order” in a clear reference to Trump, followed by remarks this week to the Canadian House of Commons that “almost nothing was normal now” in the US, according to the CBC.

Carney also said this week in a call with Trump that Ottawa should continue to diversify its trade deals with countries beyond the US, although it had no plans in place yet for a free-trade agreement with China.

Carney Beijing
Canadian PM Carney, left, meets President Xi in Beijing, China, on January 16, 2026 [Sean Kilpatrick/Pool via Reuters]

Filling the void

Hanscom Smith, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at Yale’s Jackson School of International Affairs, told Al Jazeera that Beijing’s appeal could be tempered by other factors, however.

“When the United States becomes more transactional, that creates a vacuum, and it’s not clear the extent to which China or Russia, or any other power, is going to be able to fill the void. It’s not necessarily a zero-sum game,” he told Al Jazeera. “Many countries want to have a good relationship with both the United States and China, and don’t want to choose.”

One glaring concern with China, despite its offer of more reliable business dealings, is its massive global trade surplus, which surged to $1.2 trillion last year.

Much of this was gained in the fallout from Trump’s trade war as China’s manufacturers – facing a slew of tariffs from the US and declining demand at home – expanded their supply chains into places like Southeast Asia and found new markets beyond the US.

China’s record trade surplus has alarmed some European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, who, in Davos, called for more foreign direct investment from China but not its “massive excess capacities and distortive practices” in the form of export dumping.

Li tried to address such concerns head-on in his Davos speech. “We never seek trade surplus; on top of being the world’s factory, we hope to be the world’s market too. However, in many cases, when China wants to buy, others don’t want to sell. Trade issues often become security hurdles,” he said.

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