challenge

For the first 18 years of post-monarchy Nepal, the country had 14 prime ministers — leaders changing almost every year, with some taking office, being forced out, and then returning again a few years later.

On March 5, Nepal appeared to draw a line in the sand. Months after a Gen Z-led uprising ousted the then prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, millions of voters chose rapper-turned politician Balendra Shah — or Balen as he is widely known — and his Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) to lead the nation. On Friday, March 27, Shah was sworn in as Nepal’s prime minister.

The RSP is barely four years old, and Shah’s only prior political experience is as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu.

Now, with a landslide win, analysts and voters say that Shah and the RSP have an historic opportunity to build on the popular 2025 revolt and deliver on the aspirations of young Nepalis. But with that opportunity comes risks, they add.

“There is so much excitement with the heavy mandate. This is a historical and unprecedented opportunity for him to execute his agenda because his party is likely to have close to a two-thirds majority,” political analyst Bishnu Sapkota told Al Jazeera. But, he added, “ expectations are enormous. I do not think it is realistic for him to fully meet them.”

Too big a mandate?

In the election, Shah defeated Oli in a constituency that had been the former prime minister’s stronghold for decades. The RSP won 125 of the 165 first-past-the-post seats in parliament. Seats determined through proportional representation — 110 seats are up for grabs — are yet to be divided among parties, but everything points to a two-thirds majority for the RSP.

That’s a larger mandate than even the RSP itself expected.

“We were expecting just over a 50 percent majority, but a two-thirds mandate was beyond our expectations,” RSP leader Shishir Khanal told Al Jazeera. Khanal, who was a lawmaker in the outgoing parliament, won re-election on March 5.

“The challenge is that such a mandate creates very high expectations among people, who want fast results. Given Nepal’s institutional capacity and almost stagnant economic growth, delivering those results will be extremely difficult.”

One immediate test for Shah will be implementing the findings of the Karki Commission, formed by the interim Sushila Karki government that took charge after Oli’s ouster last year. The commission was tasked with investigating the killings and property damage during the Gen Z movement last year. The panel submitted its report to the government last Sunday. This interim government is expected to hand over the investigation to the incoming Shah government to implement.

“There is a popular demand that the report be made public and implemented quickly,” Sapkota, the analyst, said. “If the interim government hands over the report as promised, implementation will have to happen in stages. As soon as he begins doing that, political reactions will follow, and he will have to manage them carefully.” The protests last year were driven by public anger over corruption, poor governance and lack of accountability, issues that voters expect the new government to address urgently. High-profile corruption investigations involving politicians are likely to be among the upcoming government’s first major tasks.

That won’t be an easy challenge to address.

Shah joined the RSP only weeks before the election, and was nominated as its prime ministerial candidate, while Rabi Lamichhane, the television presenter-turned-politician who founded the party, remains its president.

Lamichhane himself remains a controversial figure, facing allegations of fraud, organised crime and money laundering. He has previously served jail sentences and is currently out on bail. Lamichhane is accused of illegally holding two passports, US and Nepali, which is forbidden under Nepali law.

Two power centres?

The relationship between Shah and Lamichhane — and the balance of power between them — will also come under scrutiny, say experts.

Gehendra Lal Malla, professor of political science at Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu, described their alliance as a “marriage of convenience”.

“Balen needed a party to contest the election, and Rabi needed Balen’s popularity,” he said. “But differences could emerge later.”

Malla said Shah will also face a difficult test in dealing with the ongoing charges against Lamichhane. “We have a culture in Nepal where politicians protect each other,” he said. “Shah must uphold the rule of law and not protect anyone from his own party.”

At the same time, Malla noted that Shah’s popularity was the main factor behind the RSP’s success. “Balen’s appeal was the reason the party gained such a huge mandate,” he said. “He could end up having a stronger grip on the party than its president.”

Analyst Sapkota said that the RSP leadership, including Lamichhane, would need to acknowledge that the overwhelming mandate they received was largely because of Shah’s appeal. “They have to recognise that and give Shah absolute freedom to form the cabinet of his choice. Of course, the party can give their inputs and suggestions,” said Sapkota.

Khanal said, based on the conversation and an agreement they had signed, Shah will lead the government and Lamichhane the party. “From that perspective, they have their individual role sorted out, and both will have to face challenges and manage expectations on their own respective front,” Khanal told Al Jazeera.  “I have observed them work very closely together within the last election cycle and campaigning. Their decision-making has also been in collaboration. So, with what I have experienced so far, there wouldn’t be any friction between them.”

The first 100 days

For Sapkota, Shah’s political novelty might work in his favour. “He doesn’t have the baggage of party cadres and internal factions,” Sapkota said. “That gives him more freedom compared to previous prime ministers.”

RSP leaders say the government plans to move quickly. “In the first 100 days, the honeymoon period, people will begin to see changes,” Khanal said.

The party has planned to prioritise anticorruption measures, including investigations into the wealth of senior officials and politicians since 1990. “We want to form a commission to investigate the assets of high-level officials and reopen high-profile corruption cases that were paused,” Khanal said.

These steps respond directly to the demands of last year’s Gen Z protests.

For many young activists who drove the protests, the election result represents hope, but also a new government that must be held accountable.

Gen Z activist Yujan Rajbhandari, 23, said the new government must prioritise good governance and protect civic freedoms, or face pushback from the same movement that enabled its rise. “With the RSP’s large majority, parliamentary opposition will be weak,” he said. “So the streets will play a major role as opposition.”

Beyond immediate reforms, Nepal is in the middle of a debate about whether to introduce broader constitutional reforms — with questions about how decentralised power needs to be.

Khanal said the party plans to establish a committee to review whether amendments may be necessary.

Shah’s critics have also questioned his diplomatic skills, citing past social media posts attacking Nepal’s neighbours, including India and China, and important partners such as the US. As Kathmandu mayor, he briefly banned Indian films and displayed a “Greater Nepal” map that showed Indian territory as part of an aspirational larger Nepal.

Sapkota said those concerns were being overblown.

“When he made those remarks, he was a mayor, not a national leader responsible for foreign policy,” he said. Sapkota argued that Shah’s lack of political baggage could allow Nepal to pursue a more independent diplomacy. “This is a clean slate,” he said. “Previous leaders had historical ties and obligations with different countries. Shah does not have that baggage, which could give Nepal greater independence.”

Neighbouring India has already signalled a willingness to work with Nepal’s new leadership.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated both Shah and Lamichhane after the election and expressed hopes for stronger bilateral relations. Shah responded by emphasising the importance of maintaining the “historical, close and multifaceted relations” between Nepal and India and congratulating India for their recent T20 Cricket World Cup win.

For Malla, another important element to watch would be Shah’s relationship with the media. “Balen should engage more with the press once he becomes prime minister,” he said. “In the past, he has often said he prefers to work more and talk less. But as a national leader, communication and accountability are essential.”

Two decades after owner Arte Moreno decided the Angels should play under the Los Angeles name, elected officials representing Anaheim are pursuing two paths toward getting their hometown back into the team name.

Assemblyman Avelino Valencia, whose district includes Angel Stadium, has introduced state legislation that could require any sale or new lease of the stadium property be conditioned upon the team reverting to the Anaheim Angels name.

Meanwhile, Anaheim Mayor Ashleigh Aitken has asked the city attorney to explore whether the Angels have violated their current lease by dropping the Anaheim name from legal documents.

Valencia’s bill — dubbed the “Home Run for Anaheim Act” — aims to mandate what the city of Anaheim could not negotiate in its ill-fated deal with Moreno in 2019: If a team owner wants to develop the parking lots around the city stadium, the team should carry the city’s name.

“The Angels have been supported by the city and its residents for 60 years,” Valencia said. “I think it’s rightfully owed to the residents that, if the team wants to play in Anaheim and be in partnership with Anaheim when it comes to future developments of that stadium and surrounding property, then the name should also resemble that.”

Angels spokeswoman Marie Garvey said the team had no comment.

The Angels’ current stadium lease extends through 2032, with the team holding options to extend the lease through 2038.

The city and team had agreed on a deal in which the Angels would remain in Anaheim through 2050, with the team buying the 150-acre stadium property for $150 million, renovating or replacing the stadium, and building a ballpark village atop the parking lots.

The state objected, however. The Surplus Land Act requires public property up for sale must first be made available for affordable housing, and the city negotiated only with the Angels. The city agreed to a $96-million settlement.

The Anaheim City Council ultimately killed the deal three years later, after an FBI investigation uncovered — and former mayor Harry Sidhu acknowledged in a plea agreement — that Sidhu provided confidential information to the team “so that the Angels could buy Angel Stadium on terms beneficial to the Angels” and that he “expected a $1,000,000 campaign contribution from the Angels.” The government has not alleged any wrongdoing by the Angels.

Valencia’s bill was developed in consultation with city leaders and publicly endorsed by Aitken and former mayors Tom Daly and Tom Tait.

Under the bill, if the city can obtain an exemption from the Surplus Land Act, the team could not buy or lease Angel Stadium unless “materials refer to that team as the Anaheim Angels.”

The bill would only apply to Anaheim, and its provisions would not take effect “if the city of Anaheim is able to come to an agreement with the Major League Baseball team known as the Los Angeles Angels about their affiliation.”

Valencia said the city could make a case for an exemption because he believed the Surplus Land Act was designed for smaller properties like school sites and municipal office buildings. He said the community should have the primary say in how such land should be used, even if that might mean less housing on the Angel Stadium site.

“We definitely need more housing because it’s so dang expensive to live, but the amount of housing (in Anaheim) that has gone up in the last 10, 15 years, I think, mitigates some of that,” Valencia said.

“I think folks in Anaheim think that Anaheim is doing their fair share of developing housing. I don’t want to muddy the concept by saying Anaheim is saying, ‘We don’t need any more housing. We have been so proactive in that space. But I think people are going to be thrilled that we want to make the Angels have Anaheim back in the name.”

In 2005, after city officials declined Moreno’s request to change the team name from Anaheim Angels to Los Angeles Angels, the owner adopted the “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim” name. The city sued and lost, with a jury finding that the Angels had not violated a stadium lease requirement that the team name “include the name Anaheim therein.”

When the city sued the Angels and asked for an injunction to stop the name change pending trial, Orange County Superior Court Judge Peter Polos denied the request. He did, however, warn the Angels he would grant the injunction if the team dropped the “of Anaheim” and simply called themselves the Los Angeles Angels.

In 2006, after the city had lost its lawsuit, Polos ruled the team could market itself by whatever name it wished. By 2016, the team called itself the Los Angeles Angels. In state records, the legal entity is Angels Baseball LP.

“When it comes to official designations, and to how they’re registered, I want us to look into how Anaheim is being used by the team in any official filings,” Aitken said, “and what their requirements are to do so.”

When Aitken asked City Attorney Robert Fabela to investigate, Fabela said the matter would be discussed in closed session as a “potential litigation item.”

Epic Games, the developer of the popular video game “Fortnite,” is laying off more than 1,000 employees and cutting $500 million in costs.

Chief Executive Tim Sweeney announced the cuts Tuesday morning in a message to employees. He said it has nothing to do with AI and instead pointed to what he said was a lack of “Fortnite” engagement last year.

“Despite Fortnite remaining one of the most successful games in the world, we’ve had challenges delivering consistent Fortnite magic with every season,” said Sweeney in a statement.

The company’s flagship game was first released in 2017. Since then, it’s been a key part of internet culture — where character-specific dances became widespread trends and major musicians, like Travis Scott and Ariana Grande, have hosted concerts in the virtual realm.

But Epic has been slow to optimize the computer game for mobile play. A “Fortnite” app was first introduced in 2018, but soon removed due to a legal battle against Apple and Google over app store practices. Sweeney said the company is still in the “early stages of returning to mobile and optimizing Fortnite for the world’s billions of smartphones.”

Many of Epic’s woes also come from industry-wide challenges, like “slower growth, weaker spending, and tougher cost economics,” Sweeney wrote. And Epic isn’t the only one suffering. In recent years, gaming companies like Electronic Arts and Microsoft’s Xbox division have all cut down their workforces.

Earlier this year, the State of the Game Industry Report from the Game Developers Conference found roughly one-third of U.S. video game industry workers were laid off in the past two years.

Epic Games was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Cary, North Carolina. It has dozens of offices around the world, including in Los Angeles. Beyond “Fortnite,” the company is known as a leader in 3D engine technology and interactive entertainment.

Over the years, Epic Games has steadily built itself into a major Hollywood player. Its 3D creation tool, the Unreal Engine, has been used to produce visual effects and virtual worlds for shows like Walt Disney Co. and Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian” and HBO’s “Westworld.”

In 2024, Disney inked a deal with Epic Games to create a games and entertainment universe with the company’s brands, including Star Wars, Marvel and Pixar. Disney invested $1.5 billion in Epic Games for a minority stake in the company. Newly minted Disney Chief Executive Josh D’Amaro managed the collaboration with Epic Games in his previous role as parks chief to create a Disney world within the popular “Fortnite” game.

Looking ahead, Sweeney plans to focus the company on building “awesome Fortnite experiences” with fresh content and continue to accelerate its developer tools like the Unreal Engine.

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Prep Rally. I’m Eric Sondheimer. One month into the high school baseball season, the top teams in the City Section are becoming clear.

Top City teams emerge

With league play having begun, top teams are stepping forward in City Section baseball one month into the season.

To no one’s surprise, West Valley League rivals Birmingham (10-1, 3-0) and El Camino Real (9-3, 3-0) deserve to be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the City Section going into their first matchup of the season Tuesday at Birmingham. They are slated to play three league games. Both teams’ pitching has been outstanding.

Birmingham junior Nathan Soto is 3-0 with an 0.34 ERA. Sophomore Carlos Acuna is 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA. El Camino Real’s Jackson Sellz is 3-0 with an 0.54 ERA. Hudson December and Andrew Katz have also contributed on the mound. Look for a low-scoring game with some bunts Tuesday.

Bell (12-1, 2-0) is back to playing the way the Eagles performed in 2024 when they won the City title. Jayden Rojas, the City player of the year as a sophomore, is batting .421 and 4-0 on the mound with an 0.32 ERA. The Eagles are the heavy favorite to win the Eastern League.

Carson (9-1-1, 3-0) has taken early charge of the Marine League race, getting some clutch hits from Skylar Vinson.

Sun Valley Poly (6-3, 3-0) already has wins over Sylmar, North Hollywood and Kennedy in the Valley Mission League. Fabian Bravo is the pitcher/hitter to watch.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Monroe at 11-0 and now the favorite to win the East Valley League. Four-year varsity pitcher Miguel Gonzalez is 4-0 with an 0.85 ERA and 32 strikeouts and only three walks in 24 2/3 innings. The leading hitter with 21 hits is junior Luis Martinez. The Vikings have yet to face a top opponent, so it remains to be seen which playoff division they will end up in.

Garfield, Sylmar, San Fernando, Cleveland and Narbonne are all capable of working their way into an Open Division playoff berths after slow starts.

Basketball awards time

Maxi Adams of Sierra Canyon was The Times’ boys’ basketball player of the year.

(Craig Weston)

During a season in which the individual talent for boys and girls basketball was extraordinary, earning all-star recognition became quite an achievement.

The Times’ boys’ basketball player is Maxi Adams of Sierra Canyon. Here’s the report.

Here’s the 10-player All-Star team for boys.

Coach Mike LeDuc of Damien holds up his granddaughter after guiding his team to the state Division I championship.

(Greg Stein)

The boys’ coach of the year is Mike LeDuc of Damien. Here’s the report.

Here’s the final top 25 rankings.

The Times’ girls’ basketball player of the year is Kaleena Smith of Ontario Christian.

Here’s the 10-player girls All-Star team.

The girls’ coach of the year is Alicia Komaki of Sierra Canyon.

Here’s the links to the complete all-star package.

Baseball

Corona’s Anthony Murphy is fired up.

(Nick Koza)

The versatile Anthony Murphy of Corona showed off his speed and power in 8-3 win over King, getting a home run, triple, double and single. That’s called hitting for a cycle. And he almost did it again in the next game with a home run, a double and two singles. He also struck out all three batters he faced in a relief role.

Corona (7-0) is set to face Corona Santiago (9-2) in a three-game series this week. To say scouts will be out en masse when Santiago’s Striker Pence pitches Wednesday might be an understatement. He’s only a sophomore with a fastball that can reach 100 mph. The games are Monday at Santiago, Wednesday at Corona and Friday at Santiago.

Santa Margarita has lost standout shortstop Brody Schumaker for the rest of the season because of a shoulder injury. Freshman Cooper Holland provided a lift in Las Vegas with 11 RBIs. The new shortstop is sophomore Warren Wulfemeyer, whose grandfather, Mark, is one of the most recognizable names in Orange County basketball history.

Former Sherman Oaks Notre Dame pitcher Justin Lee, the 2023 player of the year by The Times, was clocked throwing his fastball between 97 and 99 mph pitching for UCLA.

Two unbeaten teams, St. John Bosco and Sherman Oaks Notre Dame, are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in this week’s this week’s top 25 rankings by The Times. St. John Bosco has shut out five of its seven opponents. Jack Champlin is creating options for the St. John Bosco coaching staff. He continues to be a great closer but is also effective as a starter.

The National High School Invitational begins Wednesday in Cary, N.C. Southern California is well represented with Orange Lutheran, St. John Bosco, Aquinas and Harvard-Westlakek participating.

Friday marks the end of the sit-out transfer period in the Southern Section. Players who did not move become eligible. Bishop Alemany could be the team to watch. Mikey Martinez, who helped Crespi win the Mission League title last season as a pitcher and outfielder, will join the Warriors.

Softball

Murrieta Mesa continues to dominate with 14 consecutive wins to start the season. Sophomore Tatum Wolff is hitting .533 with 24 hits, including eight doubles.

Chaminade is 9-0 and came through with a break-through win over defending Mission League champion Sherman Oaks Notre Dame 7-6, scoring five runs in the seventh. The Eagles have an outstanding sophomore pitcher in Finley Suppan, the daughter of former major leaguer Jeff Suppan. Here’s the report.

JSerra (13-2), Fullerton (11-1), Norco (9-2), Oaks Christian (10-1) and Etiwanda (14-1) continue to be teams on the rise.

City Section softball is wide open as teams test themselves against Southern Section opponents. Defending champion Granada Hills is 5-5.

Banning is 7-6. Carson is 7-5. They will join San Pedro in another tough Marine League battle.

Track and field

The impressive early marks in the 100 meters for boys signals some real fast times will be coming later in the spring.

Benjamin Harris of Servite leads the way at 10.23 seconds. Next are Quran Clayton Jr. of Oak Hills and Jorden Wells of Servite at 10.28. Others include Nicolas Obimgba of Torrance (10.34), Zion Phelps of Loyola (10.39), Jaden Griffin of Newbury Park (10.43), Wesley Ace of Gardena Serra (10.51), Quincy Hearn of Sherman Oaks Notre Dame (10.52) and AJ McBean of Mira Costa (10.55).

Many are football players using track to get faster, and college recruiters are noticing.

Ejam Yohannes of Loyola has stamped himself the favorite in the 400 with a time of 46.11. Imagine if he improves a little what he might be running coming June.

Dean Guzman of Moorpark cleared 6-9 in the high jump at the Maurice Greene Invitational.

For girls, Olivia Kirk of Calabasas ran a state-leading 11.51 in the 100 meters at Oaks Christian. Teammate Malia Rainey ran 11.76. Kirk also has the leading 200 time at 23.46.

Sophomore Grace Smith from Claremont ran the 800 in 2:08.80 at the Hi-Racer Meet of Champions.

Volleyball

Loyola’s JP Wardy, left, tries to tip the ball past Mira Costa’s Colby Graham, center, and Miles Crotty during a match at Mira Costa in Manhattan Beach on March 20, 2026.

(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)

Always expect drama and excitement when volleyball rivals Loyola and Mira Costa meet. It happened again Friday, with Mira Costa rallying from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Cubs in five sets. It was a remarkable performance turned in by junior Mateo Fuerbringer, who recorded 37 kills. He’s committed to UCLA.

Here’s the report.

Saugus defeated the host Chancellors to win the Chatsworth tournament championship.

So long Angelo Gasca

Venice coach Angelo Gasca showing off City Division I title trophy in 2021.

(Cliff Kensinger)

The high school sports community was in mourning after the death of Venice football coach Angelo Gasca. He was 65.

Few have made a bigger impact for their community on and off the field than Gasca, who was involved as a coach at Venice for 36 years and also played for the Gondoliers.

Here’s a look at the impact he made.

Notes . . .

Todd Quinsey is the new football coach at Ayala. . . .

Christian Collins of St. John Bosco, a McDonald’s All-American, has committed to USC. . . .

Inglewood guard Jason Crowe Jr. was selected the Gatorade state player of the year. . . .

Jon Palarz has resigned after 17 years as basketball coach at Calabasas. . . .

Former Granada Hills Kennedy football coach Dion Lambert is the new defensive coordinator at Simi Valley. . . .

Brandon Clifford has been named the basketball coach at Campbell Hall. He last coached in Greensboro, N.C. . ..

Derek Allen is the new boys water polo coach at Agoura. . . .

United Teachers Los Angeles has announced members would strike on April 14 if no deal is reached with the Los Angeles Unified School District. That would disrupt spring sports in the City Section, likely forcing games to be postponed or canceled based on previous strikes. Charter schools such as Birmingham and Granada Hills would not be affected since their teachers have separate contracts. . . .

Dylan O’Leary is the new football coach at San Dimas after being an assistant at South Hills. . . .

Quarterbacks continue to transfer in preparation for the 2026 high school football season. Here’s the latest from the transfer portal.

From the archives: Gage Jump

In 2021, JSerra pitcher Gage Jump delivers a pitch against Harvard-Westlake.

(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

Former JSerra pitcher Gage Jump has become one of the top pitching prospects in the Oakland Athletics organization. The left-hander originally signed with UCLA before transferring to LSU. He was drafted No. 74 overall in 2024. He’s listed at 6-feet tall but throws with power.

Here’s a story from 2020 on opening day.

Recommendations

From On3, a story on the controversy in Nevada, where public schools in Clark County are moving to independent status as protest against Bishop Gorman’s powerful football program.

Tweets you might have missed

Until next time….

Have a question, comment or something you’d like to see in a future Prep Rally newsletter? Email me at eric.sondheimer@latimes.com, and follow me on Twitter at @latsondheimer.

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WASHINGTON — A federal judge agreed Friday to block the Trump administration from enforcing a policy limiting news reporters’ access to the Pentagon, agreeing with The New York Times that key portions of the new rules are unlawful.

U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman in Washington sided with the newspaper and ruled that the Pentagon policy illegally restricts the press credentials of reporters who walked out of the building rather than agree to the new rules.

The Times sued the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in December, claiming the credentialing policy violates the journalists’ constitutional rights to free speech and due process.

The current Pentagon press corps is comprised mostly of conservative outlets that agreed to the policy. Reporters from outlets that refused to consent to the new rules, including from the Associated Press, have continued reporting on the military.

Friedman, who was nominated to the bench by Democratic President Bill Clinton, said the policy “fails to provide fair notice of what routine, lawful journalistic practices will result in the denial, suspension, or revocation” of Pentagon press credentials. He ruled that it violates the First and Fifth amendment rights to free speech and due process.

“In sum, the Policy on its face makes any newsgathering and reporting not blessed by the Department a potential basis for the denial, suspension, or revocation of a journalist’s (credential),” he wrote. “It provides no way for journalists to know how they may do their jobs without losing their credentials.”

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling.

It has argued that the policy imposes “common sense” rules that protect the military from the disclosure of national security information.

“The goal of that process is to prevent those who pose a security risk from having broad access to American military headquarters,” government attorneys wrote.

Times attorneys claim the policy is designed to silence unfavorable press coverage of President Trump’s administration.

“The First Amendment flatly prohibits the government from granting itself the unbridled power to restrict speech because the mere existence of such arbitrary authority can lead to self-censorship,” they wrote.

Kunzelman writes for the Associated Press. AP writer Konstantin Toropin contributed to this report.

When the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes each day—effectively ceased to function as a shipping corridor. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by warning off tanker traffic, and within days maritime transit had fallen to nearly zero. The consequences were immediate and severe: Brent crude has not dropped below the $100 threshold since March 13 and touched $119 on March 19 following Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gasfield and retaliatory Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and the UAE. For Venezuela, a country sitting atop the world’s largest proven reserves but producing around 900,000 to one million barrels per day (a fraction of its historical capacity of over 3 million in the late 1990s) the disruption arrived at a peculiar moment. It was not a crisis of Venezuela’s making. But how Caracas responds to it may define the country’s energy trajectory for years to come.

On paper, the arithmetic is striking. Alejandro Grisanti, director of Ecoanalítica, estimates that Venezuela receives approximately $400 million in additional revenue for every extra dollar in the average crude price. This figure, at current price levels, represents a fiscal windfall without precedent in the post-Maduro transition. Venezuelan crude exports had already rebounded sharply in February to around 788,000 barrels per day (up from a depressed 383,000 bpd in January, when the post-Maduro-arrest disruption had frozen trade flows), with US refineries absorbing the majority of shipments directly through Chevron or energy intermediaries. Of course, production and exports are different things: Venezuela produces roughly one million bpd but consumes some 230,000 bpd domestically, meaning effective export capacity sits considerably below gross output.

The Hormuz disruption accelerated the export recovery dynamic: with Gulf supply stranded and Asian buyers scrambling for alternatives, Venezuelan crude became a more attractive proposition. Washington has responded in kind. On March 18, the US Treasury issued a broad license authorizing established American entities to conduct transactions with PDVSA directly, a landmark shift after years of near-total sanctions isolation, explicitly framed as a supply-side response to the Iran war. There are structural constraints baked into the relief: payments cannot flow directly to sanctioned Venezuelan entities but must pass through US-controlled accounts, and transactions involving Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, or designated Chinese entities remain prohibited. The US will allow the oil trade, but it will control the cash flow.

The production ceiling, however, remains a formidable obstacle, and not merely a financial one. Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt produces extra-heavy crude with an API gravity typically in the 8–16° range and high sulfur content, which cannot simply be blended into a market substitute for the medium-sour grades displacing from the Persian Gulf. To reach export markets, Orinoco crude must either pass through an upgrader—facilities like Petropiar, which converts it to a synthetic crude of around 26° API—or be diluted with imported naphtha or lighter crude to create exportable blends like Merey. This means Venezuelan barrels serve a specific refinery profile: predominantly the cooking-capable refineries along the US Gulf Coast, which are well-suited to process heavy, sulfurous feedstocks. They are not a drop-in replacement for Middle Eastern crude, but a complementary supply for a defined segment of global refining capacity.

The US military backstop, the reformed hydrocarbon law, and now the broad PDVSA sanctions relief have together reduced the perception of expropriation risk and policy reversal that kept capital at bay for two decades.

ExxonMobil, whose assets were expropriated twice under chavismo, announced it would send an evaluation team to Venezuela within weeks, with Senior Vice President Jack Williams acknowledging the company’s heavy oil expertise from Canadian operations in Kearl and Cold Lake. The caveat was pointed: “Today it’s uninvestable,” CEO Darren Woods had said in January, and Williams’ more cautious optimism reflects the institutional memory of a company burned twice.

Chevron and PDVSA have meanwhile agreed on preliminary terms to expand Petropiar into the adjacent Ayacucho 8 block of the Orinoco Belt, while Shell is in advanced talks to develop the Carito and Pirital fields in eastern Monagas. These are among the few areas that produce the light and medium crude needed as diluent and blendstock for Venezuela’s heavy exports. Delcy Rodríguez has projected fresh oil investments of $1.4 billion for the year under the amended hydrocarbons law. These are meaningful steps. But a preliminary deal and a production ramp are different things. Rystad Energy estimates that simply holding production flat at around 1.1 million bpd requires $53 billion in upstream investment over 15 years, and getting to 2 million bpd by 2032 would demand $8–9 billion per year in sustained capital.

What has shifted—materially and quickly—is market sentiment about Venezuela as an investable destination, and the trajectory is meaningfully positive. Dozens of US hedge funds, asset managers, and energy investors are organizing trips to Caracas in the coming weeks: Signum Global Advisors is running a two-day conference in Venezuela from March 22–24 with 55 participants, roughly half of whom are bondholders who own or have recently purchased Venezuelan government and PDVSA debt (both in default since 2017).

Separate delegations invited by Trans-National Research and other groups are arriving, with agendas featuring meetings with Rodríguez and PDVSA CEO Héctor Obregón. The interest marks a sharp break from the isolation of the Maduro years. Country risk, while still elevated in absolute terms, has been repriced substantially since January: the US military backstop, the reformed hydrocarbon law, and now the broad PDVSA sanctions relief have together reduced the perception of expropriation risk and policy reversal that kept capital at bay for two decades.

Venezuela’s challenge is to use this window of geopolitical necessity to lock in investment commitments, debt restructuring negotiations, and production agreements that survive the normalization of oil markets.

What investors are now stress-testing is no longer whether Venezuela is open for business, but whether the legal and institutional architecture is durable enough to support long-horizon commitments. As analysts at Debatesiesa have noted in examining Venezuelan financial markets, sentiment can shift on headlines, but binding investment decisions require structural reforms and credible enforcement mechanisms. The framework is improving; the question is whether it improves fast enough, and on a stable enough trajectory, to convert this geopolitical moment into a genuine investment cycle.

The deeper question the Hormuz crisis forces is one of timing and durability. Oil prices are now trading above $110 per barrel and analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Rystad are no longer dismissing scenarios above $150 while the conflict shows no sign of imminent resolution, with Pete Hegseth signaling the “largest strike package yet” against Iran on March 19. The EIA, in its latest forecast issued prior to these newest escalations, projected Brent to remain above $95 through the next two months before falling below $80 in the third quarter of 2026 if supply flows gradually normalize. Whether that normalization materializes is the variable on which everything else depends. Venezuela’s challenge is not simply to capture today’s price premium, but to use this window of geopolitical necessity to lock in investment commitments, debt restructuring negotiations, and production agreements that survive the normalization of oil markets.

The country has rarely faced a more favorable confluence of factors: surging global demand for its barrels, a reformed legal framework for private investment, an unprecedented degree of US political and financial backing, and prices that make otherwise marginal projects viable. Whether Caracas—and the Rodríguez administration in particular—has the institutional bandwidth to convert a crisis into structural recovery, rather than another cycle of windfall and waste, is the defining question of Venezuela’s energy sector in 2026.

Wakefield Trinity produce a dominant second-half display as they recover from 14-12 down at half-time to beat Leeds Rhinos 24-14 and reach the Challenge Cup quarter-finals for the second season in a row.

READ MORE: Wakefield beat Leeds & Wigan cruise past Bradford

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Wakefield Trinity fought back to edge a fiercely-contested West Yorkshire derby with Leeds Rhinos, while Super League leaders Wigan Warriors made short work of Bradford Bulls in round four of the Challenge Cup.

Following a lengthy delay caused by a power failure at the DIY Kitchens Stadium, Wakefield took the lead through Harvey Smith.

Leeds hit back through two tries from in-form Maika Sivo and one from Ash Handley but Oliver Pratt’s score on the stroke of half-time reduced Wakefield’s deficit to two points at the break.

Matty Storton sent the hosts in front and Ky Rodwell went over to make sure of a 24-14 win and confirm Wakefield’s place in the quarter-finals for the second successive season.

Leeds have now failed to reach the last eight since winning the competition in 2020.

Wigan overpowered Bradford at the Brick Community Stadium, scoring first-half tries through Luke Thompson, Zach Eckersley and Liam Marshall.

Adam Keighran added a fourth for Warriors before Ethan Ryan scored Bradford’s only try and debutant Dajon Sambou completed the scoring to round off a 30-6 win for the home side.

Wakefield Trinity’s fourth-round match against Leeds Rhinos in the Challenge Cup is brought to an abrupt halt after a power cut causes the stadium to be plunged into darkness just six minutes into the match.

WATCH LIVE: Challenge Cup: Wakefield v Leeds

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