Arab News | Have both sides in Ukraine war run out of cards?
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the Kremlin on Saturday, before they headed to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Velensky. Both sides agreed to pause all strikes on the other’s capital while the Americans were in town. Why now? Have we finally reached the point in the conflict where all parties are left without cards to play?
In August 2025, Donald Trump met Putin at a US military base in Anchorage. No Ukraine ceasefire occurred in the aftermath. After discussing the two states’ long history and their efforts in the Second World War, Putin mentioned there was an “agreement” but failed to offer more details. He stressed that the situation in Ukraine was associated with “fundamental threats to our national security.”
Declassified documents from the US National Security Archive noted discussions on NATO expansion during the administration of President Bill Clinton. They show that, in 1993, American officials led Russian President Boris Yeltsin to believe that the Partnership for Peace offered an alternative to NATO expansion, rather than being a precursor to it. By the fall of 1993, discussions between supporters of the expansion of the alliance and those who proposed a more cautious approach and cooperation with Russia and Ukraine led to the formation of a “double track” approach in Washington.
Kyiv has recently been striking more deeply inside Russian territory, bringing the conflict home to ordinary citizens
Dr. Diana Galeeva
On June 22, 1994, Russia joined the program. But on Dec. 1, NATO announced that it would begin considering the admission of new members. Yeltsin later accused the US and NATO of provoking a post-Cold War “cold peace.” Clinton met Putin in the summer of 2000 at the Kremlin. Putin said that Clinton called the idea of Russia joining NATO “interesting.” However, after a conversation with his team, the US leader apparently said that “it’s not possible now.”
Since 2022, the Russian president has repeatedly criticized the expansion of NATO, calling it a threat to his country’s security. In 2024, Putin announced Moscow’s conditions for a ceasefire, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and the recognition of these regions as being part of Russia, along with Crimea.
Zelensky appears open to returning to negotiations after CIA Director John Ratcliffe last month “secretly” visited Moscow and proposed a trilateral Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting. Zelensky said any ceasefire is set to involve the US proposal for a free economic zone in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region — to be administered by a third party. Earlier, Zelensky was pressured by Trump, who told him “you don’t have the cards.” But is it only Ukraine and Zelensky that ended up with no cards to play, or is it all sides involved?
Kyiv has recently been striking more deeply inside Russian territory, bringing the conflict home to ordinary citizens. It has been using Starlink-guided drones and hastily developed missiles, hitting bombers, oil refineries, air defenses and even retail warehouses.
The Ukraine war, just like the Second World War, has revealed that no party to conflict receives any benefits
Dr. Diana Galeeva
Europe was the first side to lose the Ukraine war. The war revealed a critical weakness at the heart of Europe’s energy system. Reuters reported that the energy shock Europe suffered in the early weeks of the war “revealed a hard truth,” with the crisis reaching the heart of all European capitals. The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed further to this dynamic, with prices climbing 13 percent at the start of July.
Putin suggested in November 2025 that Russia was ready to fight “until the last Ukrainian dies” if Zelensky does not surrender. But the Iran war has changed the game, with the Kiel Institute publishing a report in June titled “Endgame” that highlighted how Russia’s war economy had “hit its limits.” Russia last week downgraded its oil output forecast for this year to a 17-year low. In June, Putin announced that Russia was ready to discuss a settlement with Ukraine based on the agreements reached in Anchorage and in Istanbul in 2022.
Meanwhile, the US, which committed about $68.2 billion in defense support of Ukraine between February 2022 and June 2026, is unlikely to continue such spending as a result of the Iran war. Washington and Iran have been exchanging strikes since Feb. 28 and, as of June, Iranian attacks had damaged 20 US military sites in the region.
Domestic factors are also pressuring the White House to prioritize peace, as Trump’s approval rate was last month stuck at 33 percent, while some 71 percent of poll respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living.
Is all this surprising? No. The end of the conflict is inevitable, as all sides have ended up with no cards to play. The Ukraine war, just like the Second World War, has revealed that no party to conflict receives any benefits, only military and economic damage. Most importantly, nearly 2 million casualties have occurred since 2022. This war has again demonstrated that a wise government’s approach is always about prioritizing the success of its own nation. A peaceful future for Europe would be a win-win approach for all.
Dr. Diana Galeeva, a former visiting scholar to the Centre of Islamic Studies at the University of Cambridge, is the author of four books, most recently “Islam in Russia: Formations of Tolerance” (Routledge, 2024).