air traffic

Make sure to pack some patience in your carry-on.

This Thanksgiving holiday travel period is expected to be the busiest in 15 years, federal officials said, as Americans brush off the recent government shutdown that snarled air travel across the country.

All told, more than 360,000 flights will take to the skies this week through Dec. 1, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.

Traffic was expected to have peaked Tuesday, with more than 52,000 flights set to ferry flyers to their feasts.

The number of flights was expected to drop to only 25,611 on Thanksgiving Day before ticking back up for post-holiday travel. In a chart posted on X, the U.S. Department of Transportation estimated that 16.9 million people would fly throughout this holiday week.

Los Angeles International Airport officials estimated that 2.5 million travelers would come through the airport from Nov. 20 through Monday. Sunday is expected to be the single busiest travel day, with more than 230,000 people making their way through the terminals.

“Thanksgiving is one of LAX’s most important travel periods with so many of our guests connecting with loved ones or setting out on holiday trips,” said Courtney Moore, deputy executive director of strategy, innovation and experience at Los Angeles World Airports. “We’ve spent the year preparing to welcome our guests with smoother experiences throughout the airport.”

The uptick in travel comes just weeks after the federal government shutdown, which forced the FAA to cut air traffic across the country to relieve air traffic controllers.

While travelers might still feel on edge over possible delays, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said in a news conference on Monday that they should “travel with confidence.”

“Thanks to the dedication of our air traffic controllers and every FAA employee, we are ready for the holiday rush and take pride in helping travelers reach their friends and families during this important time of year,” Bedford said in a statement. “I am deeply grateful to our entire FAA team. Even through a period of record-high traffic, their unwavering commitment keeps the system running safely.”

Travelers are encouraged to pack light to get through security and arrive early to the airport to avoid travel stress.

While California will largely be warm and sunny through the holiday, weather delays could still impact airports in certain parts of the country, including the New York area, JFK/LGA/EWR; Philadelphia, PHL; Houston, IAH/HOU; Memphis, Tenn., MEM; and Dallas, DFW/DAL.

Airports in Los Angeles, New York and Chicago along with hubs across the U.S. are among the 40 that will see flights cut starting Friday due to the government shutdown, according to a list distributed to the airlines and obtained by The Associated Press.

The Federal Aviation Administration announced Wednesday that it would reduce air traffic by 10% across 40 “high-volume” markets to maintain travel safety as air traffic controllers exhibit signs of strain during the ongoing government shutdown.

The airports impacted cover the busiest across the U.S. — including Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, Miami, and San Francisco. In some of the biggest cities — such as New York, Houston and Chicago — multiple airports will be affected.

The FAA is imposing the flight reductions to relieve pressure on air traffic controllers who are working without pay during the government shutdown and have been increasingly calling off work.

Controllers already have missed one paycheck and are scheduled to again receive nothing next week as as the shutdown drags on and the financial pressure on them mounts.

The FAA has already been delaying flights at times when airports or its other facilities are short on controllers.

Airlines said they would try to minimize the impact on travelers. United Airlines said it would focus the cuts on smaller regional routes that use smaller planes like 737s.

Passengers should start to be notified about cancellations Thursday. The AAA recommended that travelers download their airline’s app and turn on notifications. United Airlines and Delta Air Lines both said they will offer refunds to passengers who opt not to fly — even if they purchased tickets that aren’t normally refundable.

Experts predict hundreds if not thousands of flights could be canceled. The cuts could represent as many as 1,800 flights and upwards of 268,000 seats combined, according to an estimate by aviation analytics firm Cirium.

“I’m not aware in my 35-year history in the aviation market where we’ve had a situation where we’re taking these kinds of measures,” Bedford said Wednesday. “We’re in new territory in terms of government shutdowns.”

Air traffic controllers have been working unpaid since the shutdown began Oct. 1. Most work mandatory overtime six days a week, leaving little time for side jobs to help cover bills and other expenses unless they call out.

Mounting staffing pressures are forcing the agency to act, Bedford said.

“We can’t ignore it,” he said, adding that even if the shutdown ends before Friday, the FAA wouldn’t automatically resume normal operations until staffing improves and stabilizes.

Bedford and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Wednesday that they would meet with airline executives to figure out how to safely implement the reductions.

Major airlines, aviation unions and the broader travel industry have been urging Congress to end the shutdown, which on Wednesday became the longest on record.

The shutdown is putting unnecessary strain on the system and “forcing difficult operational decisions that disrupt travel and damage confidence in the U.S. air travel experience,” said U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman in a statement.

Duffy warned on Tuesday that there could be chaos in the skies if the shutdown drags on long enough for air traffic controllers to miss their second full paycheck next week.

Duffy said some controllers can get by missing one paycheck, but not two or more. And he has said some controllers are even struggling to pay for transportation to work.

Staffing can run short both in regional control centers that manage multiple airports and in individual airport towers, but they don’t always lead to flight disruptions. Throughout October, flight delays caused by staffing problems had been largely isolated and temporary.

But the past weekend brought some of the worst staffing issues since the start of the shutdown.

From Friday to Sunday evening, at least 39 air traffic control facilities reported potential staffing limits, according to an Associated Press analysis of operations plans shared through the Air Traffic Control System Command Center system. The figure, which is likely an undercount, is well above the average for weekends before the shutdown.

During weekends from Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, the average number of airport towers, regional control centers and facilities monitoring traffic at higher altitudes that announced potential staffing issues was 8.3, according to the AP analysis. But during the five weekend periods since the shutdown began, the average more than tripled to 26.2 facilities.

Funk and Yamat write for the Associated Press. AP journalist Christopher L. Keller in Albuquerque, N.M., contributed to this report.