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Today we discuss political forecasting, death and taxes.

Goodness! We’re just 65 days from election day.

Time flies when you’re watching American democracy teeter.

Still think Republicans will lose the House?

Your friendly political columnist makes no predictions. It’s hard to know the future, seeing as how it hasn’t happened yet. But our best guide — historical trends — suggest Democrats are exceedingly likely to seize control on Nov. 3.

They need only flip three seats and, going back well over half a century, the average midterm gain for a party out of the White House is more than two dozen. Even with the advantage the GOP engineered through aggressive gerrymandering, the deadweight of a deeply unpopular president threatens to drag down a number of Republicans in competitive and some otherwise-not-so-competitive races.

Right now, the biggest question seems to be whether November brings a blue wave, a big blue wave or merely a ripple.

What about the fight for control of the Senate?

That’s where things have gotten interesting.

Oh?

At the start of this election cycle, it looked like winning control was all but out of Democratic reach.

There are 35 contests on the ballot in November. Of those, nearly two dozen are effectively over before they’ve even started, given the advantage one party holds over the other. Of the remainder, most are being held in states Trump won in 2024, which makes them, broadly speaking, much friendlier terrain for Republicans.

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and until fairly recently that inhospitable political map made it seem like an all-but insurmountable challenge.

And now?

Now smart handicappers, like the folks at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, say control of the Senate is a toss-up.

“Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way,” Jessica Taylor, who tracks Senate races for the Cook Report, wrote in a recent analysis. But, she went on, “in a wave election akin to 2006” — when Democrats gained six Senate seats — “even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.”

That’s exactly what’s happened as inflation festers, the war with Iran drags on and Trump’s political standing steadily deteriorates.

Democratic jubilee!

Not so fast. A toss-up means it’s just as likely Republicans will retain their Senate majority.

Understood. So break it down.

Let’s start with those things Democrats have going for them, with the usual caveats …

… There are no certainties but death and taxes. Got it. Go on.

At one time, Georgia looked to be a toss-up as Democrat Jon Ossoff sought reelection in one of those battleground states Trump carried. But Ossoff has raised a boatload of money and drawn a less-than-world-beating opponent in Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Lately, the buzz around Ossoff has been focused more on a potential 2028 run for president than his November reelection.

Meantime, in North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against former national GOP Chairman Michael Whatley, a Cooper victory seems much more likely than not. A win there would give Democrats one of the four seats they need to flip.

Then there’s a handful of red-state seats that Republicans are fighting to hang on to, in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

Do tell.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Portola managed to win nearly 50% of the vote in the Aug. 18 primary, which is noteworthy given she ran on the same ballot as the GOP incumbent, Dan Sullivan, who finished second. (Another Dan Sullivan also appeared on the ballot; under Alaska’s top-four system both Sullivans will advance to a November runoff, along with Portola. The fourth slot is pending.

In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was elected three times before losing his 2024 reelection bid amid a Trump landslide, faces Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated when JD Vance became vice president. Husted has proved a less-than sure-footed candidate while Brown is waging a strong comeback campaign.

Supporters applaud as Democratic Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown speaks at a campaign event in Akron

(Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)

In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (a USC grad and former KABC-TV intern!) is running against state Rep. Josh Turek in a state that’s been hammered by Trump’s tariffs and the surging price of gas — especially the diesel fuel that sustains Iowa’s all-important agricultural economy. Turek could also benefit from the strong campaign being waged by gubernatorial front-runner Rob Sand, who tops the Democratic ticket.

Then there’s Texas.

The land of dashed Democratic dreams!

Obviously, you know your political history.

Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest in Texas since 1994, despite no end of hype and hope. This time, they’re pinning their dreams on state Rep. James Talarico, a seminarian and viral sensation. But what’s made the race highly competitive is the singularly defective GOP nominee, Ken Paxton, whose splotchy resume includes indictment, impeachment and alleged adultery. On top of all that, he’s been a pretty lousy fundraiser and has yet to bind the wounds left by a savage GOP primary.

So everything is coming up Democratic roses?

Not necessarily.

Two states they’re counting on to flip the Senate, Maine and Michigan, have grown problematic.

Maine once looked to be Democrats’ best pickup opportunity. Incumbent Susan Collins is the lone Republican running in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Then came Graham Platner, along with his inflammatory social media postings, Nazi tattoo and allegations of sexual assault. He stepped aside in July and was replaced by Troy Jackson, a former logger and state Senate president, who has considerable ground to make up after his late start.

Collins, who’s been reelected four times, has a history of winning tough races. The Platner debacle certainly hasn’t helped Jackson or Democrats.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, the progressive Abdul El-Sayed inched past a more centrist alternative to win the Democratic nomination. The question is whether he’s too far left (and, frankly, whether there’s too much anti-Muslim sentiment) for El-Sayed to prevail in that purple state. The Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers, ran two years ago and lost by less than half a percentage point.

Good to know. A lot can happen in the next 65 days.

Exactly.

Which is why we stick to columnizing. If you want predictions, ask a mystic or consult your Magic 8 Ball.

Jarren Duran and Willson Contreras homered, and five Boston pitchers combined to give up two runs over 6⅓ innings in relief of injured starter Ranger Suarez to lead the Red Sox to a 7-5 win over the Angels on Sunday night.

Boston’s eighth victory in 10 games completed a three-game sweep of the Angels, who have lost six straight and 12 of 19 since June 14.

Suarez, named to the American League All-Star team Saturday, exited with two outs in the third because of left adductor tightness, an injury he sustained when he jumped for Jo Adell’s chopper over the mound.

The left-hander was followed by Greg Weissert (1-2), Tyron Guerrero and Garrett Whitlock, who combined for 4⅓ hitless innings. Justin Slaten gave up a run in the eighth, and Aroldis Chapman gave up a solo homer to Zach Neto in the ninth before earning his 18th save.

The Angels scored twice in the first on Jorge Soler’s grounder and Adell’s RBI single. Boston tied it 2-2 in the second on Duran’s 13th homer, a two-run shot to right-center off starter Ryan Johnson (1-4).

Neto’s RBI double gave the Angels a 3-2 lead in the bottom half, but the Red Sox took advantage of Neto’s major league-leading 14th error to score three unearned runs in the third.

Tsung-Che Cheng led off with a bunt single. Anthony Seigler and Ceddanne Rafaela flied out, and Wilyer Abreu hit a routine grounder to shortstop that should have ended the inning.

Neto bobbled the ball for an error, though, and Contreras crushed Johnson’s next pitch for his 20th homer, a 446-foot shot to left-center that left his bat at 112 mph and gave Boston a 5-3 lead.

The Red Sox tacked on two insurance runs in the seventh on Abreu’s sacrifice fly and Masataka Yoshida’s RBI single for a 7-3 advantage.

The Angels scored in the eighth on Donovan Walton’s double and Adell’s RBI single.

Up next for the Angels: RHP Jose Soriano opposes Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom (7-5, 3.48 ERA) on Tuesday night in Texas.

Losing their final group game to Switzerland on Wednesday means co-hosts Canada will play no further matches in their home country at this year’s World Cup.

Had Canada avoided defeat to finish top of Group B, they would have stayed in Vancouver for their last-32 tie and potentially a last-16 fixture.

However, a 2-1 loss at BC Place meant Canada finished second behind Switzerland and so Jesse Marsch’s side will travel to Los Angeles to play South Africa on Sunday (20:00 BST).

The former Leeds boss, who has guided Canada out of the group stage at a World Cup for the first time, said: “We wanted to be here in Vancouver, but we still have a massive opportunity ahead of us to find a way to push for the next match and find a way to still electrify the nation, even though it’ll be from Los Angeles.

“We came up a little short and that’s unfortunate. But we’re in the knockout round and we’re going to make sure that we’re up for it better.”

After drawing their opening game against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Toronto, Canada thrashed Qatar 6-0 in Vancouver, where they ended the group stage with a first loss of the tournament.

Striker Jonathan David told Sports Illustrated:, external “It was nice to have a pro-Canada crowd that pushed us on every game.

“We’re a bit disappointed and it’s mixed emotions. Obviously, we wanted to stay in Vancouver, so not getting that is a blow for everyone, but we’ll talk about it and get ready for the next one.”

Not much good comes to mind when you think about the effects of climate change.

Wildfires, floods, melting ice caps, heat waves, the bleaching of ocean reefs.

But then there’s baseball, and one possible silver lining.

Has global warming turned Dodger Stadium into a home run launching pad?

I was watching Monday night’s ESPN telecast of the L.A. game against Tampa Bay when the play-by-play announcer said that once upon a time, it was an article of faith that fly balls didn’t carry far in the heavy night air of Chavez Ravine.

However, the announcer continued, a Dodger executive had told him that over the last several years, “in general, the marine layer is gone, and the ball has started to carry at night, and you can see it now in the numbers. It is a great home run hitters park.”

This is statistically true. Between 2020 and 2025, Dodger Stadium had more home runs than any other major league park, although this year’s total is lagging behind last year’s pace. In all of Major League Baseball, home run totals have fluctuated but gradually increased over the years, with this year’s pace running slightly ahead of last year’s.

That can’t all be attributed to climate change, as retired Dodger great Steve Garvey is going to explain in a minute. When considered city by city and decade by decade, there are lots of factors in home run totals, from ballpark dimensions to playing strategies to the number of long ball hitters in each lineup.

But with Dodger Stadium, the marine layer angle jumped out at me because I’m always on the lookout for relatable ways to tell the climate change story. In the past, I’d written about the gradual demise of Joshua trees, the effect of receding fog and higher heat on the California wine industry, the growing nuisance of backyard bug bites and the gradual migration of juvenile great white sharks up the coast.

And now we have to ask ourselves: Is global warming producing more home runs than steroids did?

The warm-up is real, but it isn’t new. In Game 2 of the 2017 World Series, the temperature at Dodger Stadium topped 100 when the first pitch was thrown, and the ballpark was like a popcorn machine. The Dodgers and Astros combined for a record eight home runs, and The Times’ story quoted a NASA climate scientist who noted that the marine layer was a no-show.

While watching Monday night’s game, I emailed Dodger fan Edgar McGregor, the meteorologist who warned neighbors about the catastrophic weather conditions that resulted in the Eaton fire. I asked what he thought about this theory of a link between a diminished marine layer and the number of home runs.

“There is absolute truth to that,” said McGregor, explaining that “when oceanic temperatures are warmer, the marine layer is weaker.”

McGregor broke down the aerodynamics: “Cold air is dense, so a baseball has to push more atoms out of the way as it travels deep. Warm air has lower density, so balls travel farther.”

UC climate scientist Daniel Swain said this pattern will accelerate “for the rest of our lives as air continues to warm and baseballs continue to meet less and less resistance.”

This doesn’t mean that an infield pop-up will become a home run, but Swain said balls travel four inches farther per 1 degree Fahrenheit increase, “meaning that the average hit goes about 1-2 feet further than it would have in the early 20th century.”

That doesn’t sound like a staggering difference, but with thousands of batted balls over the years, that’s a lot of outs turning into doubles, triples and home runs. Swain sent me a 2023 study from the American Meteorological Society journal titled “Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime.”

Researchers reviewed data between 2010 and 2019, finding that “higher temperatures substantially increase home runs,” with about 50 per year “attributable to historical warming.” That adds up to about 500 more home runs.

The scientists concluded: “Each degree of global warming is associated with an additional 95 home runs per baseball season.”

Home runs bring fans to their feet, as in Monday night’s game, when Kyle Tucker pumped one that made it just over the right field wall and Miguel Rojas popped the game-winner with a shot that barely cleared the left field fence. So I don’t want to sound like a party pooper, but there is no bigger story in the world than the accelerating destruction of the only sandlot we’ve got.

If the right team hits a homer, feel free to go ahead and cheer. But if the wrong team hits one, you can remind friends and loved ones that each homer is like a fossil fuel bugle call signaling the end of the world as we know it.

Thankfully, the marine layer has not yet disappeared entirely. We still got some May gray this year and some June gloom as well. I wondered, though, if there were any retired Dodgers out there who might be thinking they’d have walloped more home runs if they’d had the advantage of warmer air.

“I do remember some balls just not traveling far, especially compared to day games,” said James Loney, who played first base for the Dodgers from 2006 to 2012 and had 106 career homers with three teams.

Today’s Dodgers hit a lot of home runs primarily because the lineup is stacked, Loney said. But he said he recalled players from visiting teams hammering a long ball and passing him at first base, thinking “they had a home run, and then making a right turn back to the dugout.”

Garvey, also a first baseman, slugged 272 home runs in his 18-year career and told me that if he were playing in this era, “I probably would have hit another 40 or 50 home runs.”

But Garvey, who started with the Dodgers in 1969, said weather is just one of many factors that have led to more home runs in today’s game, which has abandoned finesse in favor of brute force.

Garvey said the bats are harder, the balls are livelier, the pitchers throw harder (more velocity means more pop for batters) and launch angles are talked about more in baseball than at Cape Canaveral.

“We never heard the term ‘launch angle,’” said Garvey, who told me he went up to the plate trying to hit a line drive, not a moon shot.

“My goal used to be a .300 average, 200 hits, 100 RBIs and 20-plus home runs,” said Garvey, who hit 20 or more homers six times, with a high of 33 in 1977.

Today’s Dodgers have plenty of swat in their lineup, ranking behind only the Yankees in home runs so far as they chase a third straight World Series ring. They’re in first place even though one of their biggest bombers, Shohei Ohtani, is about a dozen homers shy of last year’s pace.

But Swain has good news for Ohtani, for Dodger fans and for manufacturers of short-sleeved shirts.

“This year, there is going to be exceptionally high humidity for most of baseball season in SoCal due to the developing very strong El Niño event and record warm coastal ocean temperatures,” he said.

“So, it’s indeed plausible,” Swain continued, “that the combination of long-term warming from climate change, plus shorter-term warming and humidity increase from El Niño and near-shore ocean warming, might increase the number of home runs this season.”

One can only hope the home team does the most celebrating.

Go Dodgers.

steve.lopez@latimes.com