administration official

WASHINGTON — White House economists estimate that President Trump’s deals with pharmaceutical companies to drop some of their U.S. prescription drug prices to what they charge in other countries could save $529 billion over the next 10 years.

The analysis obtained by the Associated Press includes the first economy-wide projections behind a policy at the core of Trump’s pitch to voters going into November’s midterm elections for control of the House and Senate. Democratic lawmakers have been doubtful about the savings claimed by Trump and these new numbers are likely to trigger additional questions about the data.

Cost-of-living issues are at the forefront of voters’ concerns and higher energy prices tied to the Iran war have deepened the public’s anxiety. Trump has tried in part to address affordability concerns by focusing on his efforts to cut deals with companies so that the cost of prescription drugs in the U.S. would no longer be dramatically higher than in other affluent nations.

“Now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world,” Trump said at a Friday rally before a crowd of seniors in Florida. “And that alone should win us the midterms.”

The analysis was done by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers. They also estimated that federal and state governments could save a combined $64.3 billion on Medicaid during the next decade because of what Trump calls his “most favored nation” policy on drug prices.

Few of the details of the deals struck by the Trump administration and 17 leading pharmaceutical companies have been made public, making it hard to independently verify the projected savings. The White House analysis sought to estimate the prospective savings as more medications come onto the market and fall under Trump’s framework — with one model in the report tallying the possible savings at $733 billion over a decade.

Trump and his Department of Health and Human Services have touted his drug-pricing deals as transformative and urged Congress to codify their principles into law. Democratic lawmakers have challenged the administration’s claims of savings. Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and 17 Senate Democrats in April proposed a measure requiring the administration to disclose the terms of the agreements signed by pharmaceutical companies.

“If these deals are so great, why is the Trump administration afraid of showing them to the public?” Wyden said when announcing the measure. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said his team would share details that didn’t include proprietary information or trade secrets.

The White House said it has not shared the text of the agreements because they include highly sensitive data that could move financial markets.

The potential savings estimated by the Trump administration would be substantial as Americans spent $467 billion on prescription drugs in 2024, according to the most recent government data available. The analysis is premised on the idea that foreign countries would also pay more for their prescription drugs, which would diversify drugmakers’ sources of revenue and preserve their ability to innovate with new treatments.

Outside economists have caveated that any savings might not flow directly to patients, many of whom already pay discounted prices for their drugs through their insurance coverage.

The Congressional Budget Office in October 2024 estimated that a plan similar to what Trump ended up adopting could reduce prescription drug prices by more than 5%, though the decrease “would probably diminish over time as manufacturers adjusted to the new policy by altering prices or distribution of drugs in other countries.”

The scope of the savings claimed by the Trump administration are likely to intensify the scrutiny by Democrats, who counter that any price reductions would be offset by higher costs for prescription drugs not covered by the “most favored nation” framework. One of their main critiques is that pharmaceutical companies have increased their profit margins while working with the administration.

In April, staff working for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., released an analysis that looked at 15 of the companies that have agreed to this drug-pricing plan and found that their combined profits jumped 66% over the past year to $177 billion. The report noted that the tax cuts Trump signed into law last year “exempted or delayed many of the most expensive drugs” from price negotiations with Medicare.

The Trump administration has countered that they consider Sanders’ critique to be flawed, saying that it’s based on the list prices for pharmaceutical drugs instead of the actual price that patients pay.

Boak writes for the Associated Press.

WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance departed Friday for Islamabad, Pakistan, to open the first direct negotiations aimed at ending the war between the United States and Iran.

Together with a delegation of deeply mistrusting negotiators from Tehran, Vance is tasked with striking a lasting peace between rival nations which have failed to keep promises made days ago in a delicate last-minute ceasefire. Ongoing military activity in the Middle East and disagreements over Iran’s control of key shipping routes have left the diplomatic effort vulnerable to collapse before the talks even begin.

“If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand,” Vance told reporters before boarding Air Force Two. “If they’re gonna try and play us, then they’re gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

On Tuesday, President Trump called off his plans to unleash “hell” on Iran based on assurances that it lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic through the vital waterway was still at a trickle Friday, as more than 600 ships remained stranded in the Persian Gulf, according to marine tracking data. Trump accused Iran on Thursday of doing a “very poor job, dishonorable some would say,” of allowing oil through the strait.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” he wrote on Truth Social Friday.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has emerged as the central dispute threatening to derail the talks before they begin.

Hours after the ceasefire took effect, Israel launched what Lebanese officials described as its heaviest wave of strikes since the war began, killing at least 303 people, according to local health officials.

Jerusalem argues the Lebanese front is still on the table, but Iran and Pakistan disagree.

“The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier this week. “The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”

Vance has acknowledged a “legitimate misunderstanding” over whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire terms, telling reporters Washington never made that promise.

Separate negotiations regarding Lebanon are expected next week in Washington, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed Friday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also OK’d the talks, but said a ceasefire is not possible.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and the Iranian delegation arrived early Saturday in Islamabad, Iranian state media reported. Hours earlier he said a ceasefire in Lebanon “must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.”

Bagher Qalibaf added a second condition — the release of frozen Iranian assets — which he suggested must be returned before Tehran takes its seat at the bargaining table. Little is known about the halted Iranian funds overseas, but such assets are typically held back as a result of U.S.-imposed sanctions.

The vice president’s role in peace talks has grown in recent weeks. Administration officials have cast Vance as one of the few leaders Tehran would be willing to engage with directly. With a global economy upended by Trump’s far-reaching military ambitions, a victory in Islamabad could spike Vance’s standing as a prospect to lead the GOP post-Trump.

That’s if he’s able to take pressure off American wallets with an agreement that liberates Iran’s grip over the strait, which has choked much of the world’s oil supply,

Americans have continued to feel the fallout at the gas pump and grocery stores, as U.S. inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, the highest annual rate in nearly two years, according to the data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly prices rose 0.9%, a sharp increase from February’s 0.3% monthly rise, when annual inflation sat at 2.4%, the new data showed.

The White House characterized the rising inflation as a short-term disruption caused by the Iran war, while noting that the administration is “diligently working to mitigate” rising costs.

“As the Administration ensures the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, the American economy remains on a solid trajectory thanks to the Administration’s robust supply-side agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai wrote on X.

Britain announced a meeting next week with dozens of countries to coordinate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The summit will focus countering Iran’s proposal to charge transit tolls to allow ships through the waterway.

In a televised address to the nation, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke of a “devastating storm of inflation,” if peace talks don’t succeed in liberating the Middle East’s oil supply. He characterized the current stage as a “make-or-break moment.”

“We will make every possible effort to ensure the success of the peace process,” he said.