The Rise of China
Since the period of reform under Deng Xiaoping, China has steadily strengthened its global influence. When Xi Jinping came to power, he introduced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as part of the “Chinese Dream” doctrine. After 13 years, the BRI has expanded to more than 140 countries and territories, featuring large-scale infrastructure projects and strategically significant digital transformation initiatives.
Meanwhile, China’s per-capita income has reached approximately USD 13,800, while purchasing power parity (PPP) stands at around USD 29,000. These figures indicate that China now possesses sufficient resources to position itself as a potential leader of a new global order—one that could replace the U.S.-led system established after the Cold War.
On the international stage, China has demonstrated an increasingly prominent role across numerous major issues. It is a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and one of the most influential members of BRICS, a bloc formed as a counterweight to U.S.-led organizations and alliances. In addition, China has strengthened its influence through the Boao Forum for Asia and the Xiangshan Forum — institutions widely viewed as counterparts to APEC and the World Economic Forum in the economic domain, and to the Shangri-La Dialogue in the security sphere, which are backed by the U.S. and its allies.
Beijing has also actively engaged in various regional and global forums and initiatives, using multilateral platforms to expand its diplomatic, economic, and normative footprint around the world.
After Donald Trump’s first election victory, U.S.–China tensions escalated sharply, culminating in a trade war that has continued since 2018. Contrary to the predictions of many experts and scholars regarding China’s vulnerability to U.S. sanctions and retaliatory measures, Beijing has maintained remarkable resilience. In several key sectors, China has even demonstrated growing technological autonomy, including: (1) Energy and strategic raw materials; (2) Manufacturing industries — robotics, shipbuilding, and high-tech sectors; (3) Space and aerospace technologies; and (4) Strategic agriculture.
China has also achieved significant self-sufficiency in multiple stages of the semiconductor production chain and in advanced materials — areas widely considered the decisive “battleground” for China’s rise in competition with the United States.
Europe is undergoing a series of unprecedented crises. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, European countries have become deeply divided over disagreements related to the 2015 refugee crisis. In 2016, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU through Brexit marked a turning point that exposed profound instability within one of the world’s most prominent regional organizations.
As global strategic attention shifts toward the Indo-Pacific, European states have developed their own approaches and policy frameworks for engaging with the region. Meanwhile, Transatlantic relations have deteriorated significantly due to Washington’s retreat from long-standing commitments—most notably under President Donald Trump.
After Donald Trump returned to the presidency for a second term, he sought to deepen cooperation with Russia. The Trump 2.0 administration openly supported several initiatives proposed by President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine. In November 2025, the leak of a joint U.S.–Russia 28-point peace plan to the media alarmed many European governments, who saw in it clear signs that Europe could be relegated to the periphery of the emerging international order—and, more importantly, reduced to a “secondary player” in decisions affecting its own security landscape.
Therefore, turning to China—a country equipped with a full spectrum of foreign-policy instruments capable of reducing or even replacing American influence—has become an option increasingly considered by European leaders. On May 23, 2025, just one day after taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proactively initiated a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders affirmed their willingness to cooperate and put past frictions aside. President Xi even declared China’s readiness to work with Germany to strengthen China–EU relations and maintain global economic stability.
At the same time, Xi Jinping emphasized that the world is witnessing an unprecedented level of disorder—a statement suggesting that both sides have quietly aligned their strategic interests, forming a unified front to withstand the tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration in April 2025. Earlier, China had openly opposed the idea that a U.S.–Russia meeting should proceed without the participation of Ukraine, European states, and Beijing, underscoring Beijing’s ambition to deepen its role in European and global affairs.
In July 2025, European and Chinese leaders held reciprocal engagements in Beijing during the 25th EU–China Summit, reaffirming their commitment to continued cooperation on shared concerns based on principles of fairness and reciprocity.
On December 4, 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron paid an official visit to China. On his personal social media account, Macron stated that he would discuss with Chinese leaders the issues of “peace” (related to the Russia–Ukraine conflict) and “economic rebalancing” (reducing the impact of unilateral tariffs imposed by the Trump administration), which he stressed were matters “the world urgently needs.” President Macron affirmed: “Now more than ever, dialogue between China and France is essential.” He also emphasized that both countries must work to stabilize the geopolitical environment, with China’s role in the Russia–Ukraine situation being a top priority.
In any negotiation—whether at the national or corporate level—each side must offer something the other truly values. At present, China holds what is arguably the most decisive asset shaping the regional and global balance of power: its relationship with Russia. Since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022, Russia has remained under heavy sanctions by the United States and its allies. Yet Moscow has managed to withstand this pressure largely because of China’s economic support.
Beijing has gradually expanded its influence over Moscow through deepening economic ties. Chinese exports to Russia grew by 70% between 2021 and 2024, with several product categories doubling within just two years. In energy, China has become Russia’s largest buyer of fossil fuels, accounting for 38% (5.4 billion euros) of Moscow’s monthly export revenues. China purchases 44% of Russia’s coal exports, 47% of its crude oil, 13% of its oil products, and 21% of its natural gas. These figures demonstrate that China plays a critical role in sustaining the Russian economy and therefore holds significant leverage over Moscow’s current trajectory.
Meanwhile, Europe remains a traditional sphere of influence for the United States since World War II. China’s growing involvement in European affairs—and its increasingly close ties with European capitals—poses a challenge to American strategic dominance across the continent and opens the door for Beijing to shape a broader Eurasian order. Such engagement also stretches U.S. strategic resources, potentially reducing Washington’s ability to maintain influence in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the Taiwan Strait. This could leave the United States without sufficient capacity to sustain its position in Asia.
European nations, eager to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict as soon as possible, are therefore inclined to draw China deeper into regional diplomacy through cooperation on major infrastructure and development projects. At the same time, they may reduce their own commitments in the Indo-Pacific to pull U.S. attention back toward Europe—using this as leverage in negotiations with Beijing.
As a result, China is expected to continue expanding its involvement in European affairs, take a leading role in mediating the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and gradually replace American influence while advancing the strategic objectives Beijing has long pursued.
The visit of President Emmanuel Macron to China in December 2025 marks a politically transformative moment for Europe. European countries are now seeking ways to reduce American influence by deepening cooperation with China in order to address the Russia–Ukraine conflict. At the same time, the Asian geopolitical landscape is expected to face new uncertainties, driven by China’s growing ambition to pursue reunification across the Taiwan Strait.
Taken together, these developments signal a fundamental shift in the international order that has existed since the end of the Cold War.