TODAY

Mountaineer Nirmal Purja among those feared missing after avalanche hit Broad Peak, Pakistan alpine club says.

Ten climbers, led by renowned Nepali mountaineer Nirmal Purja, are feared missing after an avalanche in northern Pakistan where they were on a climbing expedition, the country’s alpine club said.

“The Alpine Club of Pakistan (ACP) has received deeply concerning reports of an avalanche that struck a team of climbers on Broad Peak (8,047m) in the Karakoram mountain range,” the club said late on Thursday, adding that the team was led by Purja and could not be reached since the incident.

Broad Peak is the 12th-highest mountain in the world.

The ACP said the expedition comprises 10 people, including five from Nepal, one from Pakistan, one from Oman, one from China, one from the United States, and another foreign climber whose nationality it did not disclose.

“The entire team has reportedly been out of communication since the avalanche,” the club said.

“Every possible effort is being made to ensure that helicopter support and all available rescue resources are mobilised at the earliest opportunity, subject to weather and operational conditions,” it added.

Purja, 43, also known as Nims Dai, has broken multiple climbing records since becoming a full-time mountaineer and tour guide in 2018, after leaving the British military.

He climbed all 14 “eight-thousanders” (peaks above 8,000 metres, or 26,000 feet) in six months and six days between April and October 2019, a record at the time.

In 2021, Purja completed the first winter ascent of K2 as part of a team of nine other Nepalese climbers.

Israeli forces struck near Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon. The military said it used 700 tonnes of explosives to destroy parts of a Hezbollah tunnel network. Israel agreed in June to a phased withdrawal from Lebanon, and have the Lebanese military handle disarming Hezbollah.

Al Jazeera visited the occupied West Bank village of Sinjil, where Israeli earth mounds, metal barriers and road closures have blocked all main entrances. Residents say the restrictions have left the village effectively cut off, making even routine journeys difficult and potentially deadly.

While the United States enjoys sufficient energy resources, thanks to shale oil, the European Union does not. To assure itself of the energy supplies in the Gulf that the European Union needs, the EU should consider assisting the Gulf States in the construction and operations of the pipeline. 

Building a large-scale, completely underground oil pipeline system from the Persian/Arabian Gulf oil fields to the Mediterranean Sea is estimated to cost between $40 billion and $60 billion and would take 5 to 7 years to complete. The exact metrics depend heavily on the chosen route, political alignment across transit countries, and the required total throughput capacity. 

Breakdown of Total Costs 

Modern mega-pipeline engineering over long desert and mountain distances faces massive cost drivers: 

· Construction & Trenching ($18B – $25B): Burying multiple large-diameter (e.g., 42 to 48-inch) pipelines entirely underground requires extensive trenching, rock blasting, and specialized anti-corrosion coatings. Global benchmarks show that large-scale overland pipelines average $8 million to $12 million per mile, but full underground burial heavily drives up labor and machinery costs.

· Pumping Stations & Terminals ($8B – $12B): Moving millions of barrels of crude daily across hundreds of miles requires heavily fortified pumping stations every 60–100 miles, alongside massive new storage and loading terminals on the Mediterranean coast. 

· Geopolitical & Geotechnical Risk Premium ($7B – $10B): Multi-billion dollar  contingencies are standard to absorb project snags, material inflation, and  complex international legal/right-of-way frameworks. 

· Security Infrastructure ($5B – $10B): Given the vulnerability of cross-border energy corridors, modern estimates for Gulf bypass networks integrate specialized defensive technologies (like automated drone surveillance or surface-to-air missile defenses) to protect critical facilities. 

Construction Timeline and Stages 

· Megaprojects of this length are restricted by a sequential project lifecycle that cannot easily be accelerated simultaneously: 

· Diplomacy & Right-of-Way (Years 1–2): Securing cross-border transit legal treaties (e.g., routing through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, or Syria/Turkey) and finalizing environmental impact assessments. 

· Material Procurement & Logistics (Years 2–3): Manufacturing and transporting millions of tons of high-grade steel line pipe and heavy industrial pumps. 

· Civil Trenching & Laying (Years 3–6): Heavy execution phase. Crews can typically lay roughly 1 to 2 miles of pipe per day per construction spread.

Multiple spreads working simultaneously across different geographic zones are required to finish within a 3-to-4-year active construction window.  · Testing & Commissioning (Year 7): Hydrostatic pressure testing of the lines to ensure underground integrity, followed by line fill and gradual commercial scale-up 

Proposed Alternative Routes 

Producers in the region actively advance or evaluate different variants of this corridor to bypass maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz: 

· The Mesopotamian Corridor (Iraq/Syria route): A ~1,500 km route linking the southern oil fields of Basra to Mediterranean ports like Baniyas, Syria.  While geographically direct, it remains vulnerable to high regional instability. 

· The Trans-Arabian Upgrades: Adapting or running parallel lines to existing corridors (like the Saudi East-West Petroline, which travels 1,200 km to the Red Sea) and extending them northward to Mediterranean Sea terminals. 

How Standard Micro-Tunneling Works for Utilities: When pipeline engineers hit a mountain or an environmental zone where they cannot dig an open trench, they use Micro-Tunnel Boring Machines (MTBMs) or Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD). These systems are highly specialized to avoid the exact problems of passenger-sized tunnels: 

· Sized to the Pipe: Unlike a 12-foot-wide transit tunnel, an MTBM is built to the exact outer diameter of the oil pipe (typically 4 to 5 feet for a 48-inch line).  This means crews excavate 90% less rock and dirt.

· Pipe-Jacking Method: Instead of laying concrete tunnel walls and then trying to slide a heavy steel pipe inside later, MTBMs use a process called “pipe jacking.” Powerful hydraulic rams at the surface push the actual steel oil pipe directly behind the drilling head as it advances into the rock. 

· No Open Voids: Because the pipeline fits perfectly into the drilled hole, there is no empty space left around it. The pipe is completely surrounded by solid rock or stabilizing grout, eliminating the risk of dangerous, explosive gas pockets building up in an open tunnel. 

The Mountain Ranges the Route Must Clear 

· To get from the Gulf fields (like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia or Basra in Iraq) to the Mediterranean, a pipeline must breach the Syrian Desert and cross a series of rugged, geologically active mountain walls running parallel to the Mediterranean coast: 

· The Jordan Rift Valley & Dead Sea Fault: Before hitting the mountains, the pipeline must drop down into one of the lowest, most seismically active valleys on Earth (falling hundreds of feet below sea level) and then immediately climb back out. 

· The Judean Hills & Golan Heights: Depending on the exact coastal terminal, the line must climb over rugged limestone ridges ranging from 3,000 to 4,000 feet high.

· The Anti-Lebanon & Mount Lebanon Ranges: If the route takes a more northern path toward Syria or Lebanon, it faces severe alpine conditions with peaks soaring between 9,000 and 10,000 feet. 

The Geopolitical Treaties Required 

Building a multi-billion dollar piece of energy infrastructure across national borders requires an intricate web of international legal frameworks. Historically, cross-border pipelines are governed by Host Government Agreements (HGAs) and Intergovernmental Agreements (IGAs). 

To make a Gulf-to-Mediterranean pipeline a reality, several unprecedented breakthroughs would be needed: 

· Transit Fees and Tariffs: The countries hosting the pipeline but not producing the oil (like Jordan or Syria) must negotiate “transit fees.” These are typically paid in cents per barrel of oil that passes through their territory, providing them with billions in long-term revenue. 

To make a Gulf-to-Mediterranean pipeline a reality, several unprecedented breakthroughs would be needed: 

· Transit Fees and Tariffs: The countries hosting the pipeline but not producing the oil (like Jordan or Syria) must negotiate “transit fees.” These are typically paid in cents per barrel of oil that passes through their territory, providing them with billions in long-term revenue. 

· The “Right of Way” Guarantee: Sovereign nations must sign legally binding treaties promising that they will not shut off or seize the pipeline during diplomatic disputes. A famous historical warning is the original Trans-Arabian Pipeline (Tapline), which was repeatedly disrupted, sabotaged, and eventually shut down permanently due to border conflicts and transit fee arguments between Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. 

· The Abraham Accords Framework: If the pipeline takes the most geologically direct southern route to terminals in Israel (like Ashkelon or Haifa), it relies heavily on the long-term stability and expansion of the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia and Israel would need formalized economic treaties to protect a joint energy corridor from regional political shifts. 

· Joint Security Commands: Because a pipeline stretching thousands of miles across the Middle East is a prime target for non-state actors and drone strikes, treaties must establish a unified security framework. This allows military and intelligence sharing across borders to patrol the pipeline corridor with automated drone networks and satellite monitoring. 

Environmental Safeguards for Freshwater Aquifers The Jordan Valley and the surrounding mountain ridges contain critical freshwater sources, such as the Mountain Aquifer, which supply drinking water to millions of people in Israel, Palestine, and Jordan. A single major crude oil leak could seep into the porous limestone and permanently poison these non-renewable water reserves.  To mitigate this, engineers deploy an array of specialized defenses: 

· Pipe-in-Pipe Technology (Double Containment): In high-consequence water zones, crews do not use a standard single-wall pipe. They build a “pipe-in-pipe” system where the main 48-inch crude oil line sits inside a larger, secondary outer steel casing. The vacuum gap between the two pipes is monitored 24/7 for pressure changes; if the inner pipe leaks, the outer pipe captures the oil before it touches the soil. 

· Fiber-Optic Acoustic Leak Detection: Continuous fiber-optic cables are buried directly alongside the pipeline. These cables can “hear” the micro-acoustic vibrations and sudden temperature drops caused by a pinhole leak. This allows operators to pinpoint the exact location of a breach within meters in less than a minute. 

· Emergency Remote Isolation Valves: The pipeline is segmented by heavy-duty, automated shut-off valves. In flat areas, these are placed every 20 miles. In critical aquifer zones or steep mountain drops, they are placed every 1 to 2 miles. If the control center detects a pressure drop, these valves slam shut automatically via satellite command to trap the oil inside a small, isolated section, preventing millions of gallons from draining into the environment. 

Daily Revenue for Transit Countries 

· Transit countries like Jordan or Syria do not own the oil, but they make massive profits simply by letting it cross their land. These fees are negotiated as a tariff—a fixed dollar amount charged per barrel of oil moved. 

· Assuming a modern mega-pipeline with a capacity of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) and a standard international transit tariff of $0.60 to $1.20 per barrel, we can calculate the massive financial impact on a host country’s budget:

DAILY TRANSIT REVENUE ESTIMATE │ 

Pipeline Throughput Capacity │ 2,000,000 Barrels / Day 

Average transit tariff rate: $0.90 USD per barrel 

Daily Revenue Generated │ $1,800,000 USD / Day 

Annual Revenue Generated │ $657,000,000 USD / Year 

The Broader Economic Impact 

· Direct Budget Injection: For a developing economy like Jordan, an extra $650M+ per year in pure cash represents a massive boost to their national budget, easily funding large-scale public infrastructure or health programs. 

· In-Kind Energy Off-Takes: Rather than taking 100% of the payment in cash, transit treaties often allow host countries to take a portion of the payment in free crude oil. This allows them to supply their local refineries and secure cheap domestic gasoline without relying on volatile global energy imports. 

· Long-Term Economic Leverage: Hosting the pipeline transforms these non-producing nations into critical gatekeepers for global energy markets, giving them significant diplomatic leverage when negotiating trade and security deals with major global superpowers. 

Maritime Shipping Insurance & The Strait of Hormuz Bypass  The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most sensitive maritime energy chokepoint. During periods of regional conflict, Lloyd’s of London and global marine underwriters designate

the Persian Gulf as a listed area (high-risk zone), triggering drastic shifts in shipping economics. 

· War Risk Premiums: When regional tensions spike, war risk insurance premiums for oil tankers navigating the Strait can surge from a baseline of 0.025% of the ship’s value to over 0.25% to 0.5% per voyage. For a modern $100 million Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), this adds an extra $250,000 to $500,000 in insurance costs for a single transit. 

· Bypassing the Chokepoint: Moving oil via the underground pipeline directly to the Mediterranean entirely eliminates the need for tankers to enter the Persian Gulf. Tankers load at secure Mediterranean ports (like Ashkelon, Haifa, or Baniyas) within standard, lower-risk European maritime zones. 

· Shipping Time Savings: Loading in the Mediterranean slashes the sailing distance to European and North American refineries by roughly 3,500 to 4,500 miles compared to sailing all the way around Africa or paying steep transit fees to use the Suez Canal. This reduces freight operating costs and completely erases the risk of a regional conflict stranding a fleet inside the Gulf. 

Naval Defense Infrastructure at the Mediterranean Terminal 

Because the new Mediterranean pipeline terminal would handle up to 2 million barrels of oil per day, it becomes a high-value strategic asset. Protecting it requires a multi-layered naval defense perimeter extending miles out to sea:

· Anti-Drone & Anti-Torpedo Netting: Heavy, underwater physical barriers and sensor nets are deployed around the loading buoys and piers to catch or detonate incoming unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) or loitering aquatic explosive drones. 

· Phalanx CIWS & Missile Batteries: The onshore terminal facility integrates close-in weapon systems (CIWS) and surface-to-air missile batteries (like Iron Dome or Barak MX systems) to intercept incoming rocket, drone, or anti-ship missile strikes launched from sea or land. 

· Active Naval Patrols: Host nations deploy continuous maritime security cordons using fast attack craft, sonar-equipped corvettes, and aerial reconnaissance drones to enforce a strict 5-to-10 mile exclusion zone around the offshore loading terminals, vetting every incoming commercial vessel. 

Conclusions 

With political tensions between the United States and the European Union increasing and confidence in the United States’ foreign policy falling, Europe needs to find and secure an energy source that is not dependent on either the United States or Russia.  An agreement, both economic and political, would in the long run make Europe independent from energy sources from either country. The idea of an overland pipeline to the Mediterranean is both economically and engineeringly possible. What is needed is the political will to make it happen.

Spain has deployed its military to Ceuta after thousands of migrants overwhelmed police barricades. At least nine people are reported dead, and Italy says it supports temporarily tightening immigration controls for all travellers from Spain.

More than 1,150 cases have been referred to the National Crime Agency (NCA)’s Cyber Choices scheme in the last eight years – nearly 600 of those were in the last three years.

Authorities warn teenage hacking groups are playing an increasingly prominent role in serious cyber-attacks.

Young, English-speaking hackers have been linked to attacks on major organisations including Transport for London (TfL) and MGM Grand in 2024, and Marks and Spencer and the Co-op in 2025.

Individuals are also being increasingly targeted in hacks for their cryptocurrency holdings.

“It certainly has become more of a problem,” said Paul Foster, who leads cyber prevention work at the NCA.

“Certainly English-speaking, western world individuals that we know are now more active in cyber-crime.”

He said young people were engaged with online activity and devices at increasingly young ages exposing them to criminal communities and influences.

Police say many young offenders do not initially set out to become criminals.

Instead, they often begin by experimenting with technology, testing systems or trying to bypass restrictions before becoming drawn into online communities where hacking is encouraged.

The U.S. Air Force Reserve’s 442nd Fighter Wing is now set to transition to the F-15E Strike Eagle after retiring the last of its A-10 Warthog ground attack jets. This is an unexpected announcement and follows years of uncertainty about whether the 442nd would still have a tactical flying mission at all after its A-10s headed to the boneyard. The decision to give the wing F-15Es, rather than a newer type like the F-15EX Eagle II, is also notable, and there were hints this was coming. The jets will have to come from another unit, pointing to larger force structure changes on the horizon.

Representative Mark Alford, a Missouri Republican, announced the transition plan for the 442nd late yesterday. The Wing’s home station is Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, which is situated in Alford’s district. Whiteman is better known for being the home of the Air Force’s B-2 bomber fleet. The Missouri Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 135th Aviation Regiment, with its UH-60 Black Hawks, is also a tenant unit at the base.

The Department of the Air Force has approved “the enterprise definition, site survey criteria, and candidate location for the Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) F-15E Strike Eagle basing action,” according to a press release from Alford’s office. “Based on the approved enterprise definition, Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, has been identified as the sole candidate location for the F-15E Strike Eagle mission – a decision that marks a critical step toward securing the future of the 442d Fighter Wing and continuing its decades-long tradition of excellence.”

“The Department of the Air Force’s decision supports its broader goal of increasing fighter capacity, modernizing the fighter force, and replacing aging aircraft with a capable and sustainable platform,” the release adds. “The planned transition will bring 24 F-15E Strike Eagles to Whiteman Air Force Base, preserving a critical Air Force Reserve combat-coded fighter unit and the experience of the 442d Fighter Wing.”

The current plan is for the first F-15Es to begin arriving at Whiteman in Fiscal Year 2031, the release also notes. This is in line with the new retirement schedule for the A-10 fleet that the U.S. Air Force announced earlier this year. The service had previously been aiming to divest the last of its Warthogs in 2029, but is now set to continue flying the type through 2030. The 442nd at Whiteman, as well as an active component squadron at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia, are now in line to be the last operational A-10 units. A second active duty unit at Moody will also keep flying the A-10 for an extra year, into 2029, under the new plan.

TWZ has also reached out to the U.S. Air Force for more information in light of Alford’s announcement.

Most immediately, the decision to transition the 442nd to the F-15E is a major win for the unit and for Whiteman, preserving a tactical flying mission at the base for the future. The impending retirement of the A-10 has caused significant uncertainty for units flying Warthogs, especially in the Air Force Reserve and the Air National Guard. Members of Congress, as well as state politicians, on both sides of the political aisle have been pushing for years for new flying missions for existing A-10 units. A similar surprise announcement came in April 2025, when President Donald Trump announced that the Michigan Air National Guard’s 127th Wing would be trading its Warthogs for F-15EXs.

“I want to sincerely thank the leaders throughout the Department of the Air Force, Air Force Reserve Command, Governor [Mike] Kehoe for bringing this matter to President Trump’s attention, Missouri’s State Senators for their efforts, and the many Whiteman Air Force Base Airmen who took the time to give their concerns and help make this mission possible,” Rep. Alford said in a statement yesterday. “This outcome reflects what can happen when a community comes together, when our military leaders listen, and when we work toward a shared goal.”

“This is incredible news for Whiteman Air Force Base, the 442d Fighter Wing, and our entire state. The F-15E Strike Eagle mission secures the future for the 442d, saving jobs and bringing continued opportunity to Missouri,” Gov. Kehoe wrote in a post on X yesterday. “This historic announcement would not have been possible without @RepMarkAlford’s [Rep. Alford’s] dedication to securing this mission alongside Whiteman leadership, @SenEricSchmitt [Senator Eric Schmitt], and @SenHawleyPress [Senator Josh Hawley].”

“This is the first in several steps,” Alford also acknowledged during a press conference yesterday, as seen in the video below. “There’s a lot of planning that has to go into this, a lot of regulatory steps. But this is a first step that I’ve been waiting on for three and a half years: for the Air Force to give us a call and to email us with a detailed plan of how this is going to work out.”

LIVE: ALFORD ANNOUNCES MAJOR VICTORY FOR WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE

As mentioned, the more specific plan now to convert the 442nd into an F-15E squadron is interesting. The original Strike Eagle is long out of production, and the Air Force currently has some 212 of these jets in inventory.

So, to make the plan work, the F-15Es heading to Whiteman in Fiscal Year 2031 will have to come from somewhere else within the Air Force. Right now, there are six active-duty Strike Eagle squadrons spread across Seymour-Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina, Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho, and RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. There are a smaller number of Strike Eagles assigned to test and evaluation units, as well.

It’s also important to note here that there are roughly two halves to the F-15E fleet: older jets with Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-220 turbofan engines and ones with more powerful F100-PW-229 variants. The Strike Eagles with -229 engines are newer, with the final batch of 10 aircraft being delivered in the early 2000s.

The F-15Es are still some of the most heavily in-demand aircraft in the Air Force’s inventory today, offering a very flexible multi-mission tactical platform with impressive range and payload capacity. At the same time, the Strike Eagle fleet has been heavily strained by persistent operational demands for decades now. This has been recently compounded by the loss of four jets in the course of operations against Iran this year.

The Air Force has moved in recent years to retire its older F-100-PW-220-powered Strike Eagles, ostensibly to free up resources for new and improved capabilities as part of larger modernization efforts. Congress has pushed back against those plans, something we will come back to later on. More recently, the service also announced plans to roughly double the size of its fleet of F-15EX fleet, from 129 to 267 jets, explicitly to help “begin to recapitalize the aging F-15E fleet.”

TWZ has been highlighting the logic of replacing the F-15Es, or at least a substantial portion of that fleet, with new EXs, for years now. As we have previously noted, the current acquisition plan is large enough that it could also help fill gaps left by the retirement of the A-10 fleet and older F-16 Viper fighters.

We have also talked in the past about the potential value then of sending the resulting ‘surplus’ F-15Es to other Air Force units, especially in the reserve component and the Air National Guard. It would arguably make more sense in many cases to give active-duty squadrons newer F-15EXs while pushing older Strike Eagles to the Reserve and Guard. The more heavily air-to-ground-focused, two-seat F-15Es would be especially well positioned to carry on close air support, forward air control, and other missions currently performed by units transitioning from the A-10. The loss of this knowledge and specialization is among the biggest concerns with retiring the A-10.

“For every one of these A-10 units that are going away, I’m looking at if there’s a means by which we can get an F-15 unit behind it, whether it’s a Strike Eagle or an EX,” Air Force Lt. Gen. John P. Healy, Chief of Air Force Reserve, said just this past February at the Air & Space Forces Association’s annual Warfare Symposium in February.

“I am optimistic that we’ve at least got people listening to the value that we provide, the combat capability we provide, the experience that we provide,” Healy also said at that time when asked directly by TWZ about the likelihood of F-15Es heading to Air Force Reserve units. “We’ve proven it over and over again. We’re efficient, we’re experienced, we’re 100 percent accessible as a reserve force, and we’re lethal in all these mission sets. I think our message is sounding in a positive way with senior leadership within the Air Force. I’m not going to cash the check yet, but I’m optimistic about our future in terms of recapitalizing some of our units.”

To reiterate, sending F-15Es to any Air Force Reserve and/or Air National Guard squadron will require a redistribution of the existing Strike Eagle fleet. The comment in the press release from Rep. Alford’s office that Whiteman has been “identified as the sole candidate location for the F-15E Strike Eagle mission” raises further questions about exactly what the entire Strike Eagle force, and its disposition, will look like by the end of the decade. Seymour-Johnson is where the F-15E schoolhouse currently resides, and the base is also now the hub for F-15EX training.

The new plans for a larger fleet of F-15EXs will factor in the equation, as well. The Oregon Air National Guard’s 142nd Wing is currently the only operational unit flying Eagle IIs. The Air Force has announced that Air National Guard squadrons in California and Louisiana, as well as the aforementioned one in Michigan, will be receiving F-15EXs, too. Two active duty Eagle II squadrons are also set to be established at Kadena Air Base in Japan. There are currently expected to be nearly 120 aircraft assigned to these squadrons, as well as test and evaluation units, collectively. With the EX fleet now set to comprise 267 aircraft, there is then the question of where nearly 150 additional jets will be assigned. Recapitalizing frontline F-15E units with EXs would go a long way toward providing an answer, while also freeing up Strike Eagles for reassignment elsewhere.

The 442nd’s transition to the F-15E is still not expected to come for several more years. There is the possibility then that the plan, as well as other expected force structure changes, could evolve further due to a variety of factors. For one, Congress has already stepped in to block the Air Force from retiring any Strike Eagles through at least September 2027, and could do the same again next year. At the same time, this would not preclude the Air Force from reassigning those jets to new units as other aircraft enter service.

There is also the potential for A-10s to continue serving beyond 2030. Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of Congressmen introduced a bill that, if passed and signed into law, would require the Air Force to continue flying Warthogs through Fiscal Year 2033. This proposed legislation is named the BRRRRT Act (standing for Bolstering Recognition, Resurgence, Retention, and Remembrance of the Thunderbolt), a reference to the sound the A-10’s iconic 30mm GAU-8/A Avenger cannon makes when fired. This is on top of additional lifelines for the Warthog community contained in drafts of the annual defense policy bill, or National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for Fiscal Year 2027 that are now making their way through Congress.

The employment of A-10s in strikes against targets in and around Iran this year directly contributed to the Air Force’s aforementioned decision to extend the service life of the fleet. This has also bolstered general support for the aircraft, which has long had a vocal following among the general public.

Though clearly an important development for the 442nd Fighter Wing, the transition plan that has been outlined now looks to be just the start of major changes for the Air Force’s F-15E fleet, especially as the new F-15EX continues to take center stage.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

A French teenager has been fined about $465 after pleading guilty to a public nuisance charge in Singapore for licking a straw. Didier Gaspard Owen Maximilien went viral when he posted a video of himself licking the straw and placing it back in a juice vending machine.

The war in Iran has taken a significant turn even as the memorandum of understanding to stop the fighting is supposed to be in progress.

Saudi Arabia, in coordination with the US, has carried out strikes inside Iraq against armed groups with ties to Iran.

Riyadh accused the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) of attacking its oil facilities.

The strikes have ignited fears of an escalation.

Now, the PMF is promising to retaliate.

And one of its factions has given the Iraqi government a week to respond to the Saudi attacks.

What could happen if it does not?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Ahmed Rushdi – President of the House of Iraqi Expertise Foundation, a policy think tank and research organisation

Ahmed al-Maimouni – Head of research at the Rasanah International Institute of Iranian Studies

Muhanad Seloom – Assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies

Palestine Action’s co-founder Huda Ammori has been granted permission to challenge the UK government’s decision to designate the group a terrorist organisation at the Supreme Court.

There’s still no vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain of the virus as the country struggles for control in infected areas.

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has killed more than 1,500 people, as the spread of the virus continues to outpace response efforts, new statistics have revealed.

DRC has now recorded 3,442 cases of the virus and 1,521 deaths, a government update said on Thursday. The data marks a 50 percent increase in the death toll over the past week, with authorities continuing to struggle to rein in the outbreak in the east of the country, where decades of conflict with rebel groups have left government control and infrastructure lax or absent.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said that the sharp rise since last week partly reflects a backlog of cases and deaths that had not yet been confirmed or recorded.

The lack of a proven vaccine for Bundibugyo, which is the rarest of the four variants of Ebola known to affect humans, and the fact the epidemic is unfolding in an area of active hostilities between armed groups, producing a shortage of public health resources, has helped to allow the virus to spread “like wildfire”, a public health consultant who helped establish Africa CDC told Al Jazeera earlier this month.

Africa CDC added that delays in contact tracing, difficulties accessing affected areas, and mistrust from communities have hindered an effective response.

The outbreak is mostly concentrated in eastern Congo’s remote Ituri province, which accounts for nearly 90 percent of cases, but five other provinces have confirmed cases, including one of the country’s largest cities, Kisangani.

Neighbouring Uganda declared itself free of Ebola on Tuesday following the discharge of the country’s last patient in mid-June.

Africa CDC Director-General Dr Jean Kaseya said 63 percent of confirmed deaths in the last two weeks occurred outside treatment centres.

This is largely due to the “unsafe handling of infected bodies” by residents, including touching the remains of the deceased, whose bodies remain highly infectious.

Earlier this month, some healthcare workers in Ituri went on strike over unpaid wages and unsafe working conditions, which has also impeded efforts to hold back the disease’s rapid spread.

In Ituri’s Nyakunde health zone, international partners supporting the Ebola response had to temporarily relocate after a July 15 attack on a hospital and a treatment centre, prompted by a patient’s death. Officials said this disrupted surveillance, contact tracing and supplies.

Despite the accelerated death toll in DRC, the World Health Organization has said the risk of a global spread remains low because Ebola does not travel through the air, making it much harder to spread than respiratory viruses.

Cases detected outside the DRC have so far been quickly identified and contained without leading to sustained transmission, the agency said.

Climate change has helped southern Europe’s likelihood of wildfires double since 1981, say researchers.

Southern Europe is “becoming more flammable,” with the number of summer days featuring conditions likely to produce fires having more than doubled since 1981, according to a new report.

The study, published on Thursday in the Scientific Reports journal, said that this “major intensification” of fire-prone weather is driven by climate change. It noted that these effects are especially pronounced in France and Spain, which have been battling some of their largest blazes since records began in recent weeks.

The steep increase in the frequency of fire weather – characterised by searing temperatures, low humidity, dryness, and strong winds – “can only be attributed to global warming,” said study co-author Raul Cordero.

European countries are enduring an above-average season for wildfires, and have already overtaken 2025, which was a record-breaking year for destructive blazes.

Cooling weather and rain helped to calm the worst of the fires in France and Spain on Thursday.

France told 84,000 evacuees in the southwest of the country that it was now safe to go home, as France’s largest wildfire since 1949 pulled back.

Spain ended its state of national emergency as wildfires threatening areas near Madrid – the largest Spain has experienced since records began in 1961 – began to come under control.

However, as high temperatures moved eastwards, fires were being fought in Greece, Turkiye, and the United Kingdom.

In Greece, two firefighters died on the island of Crete on Wednesday, the fire department said, as several fires started around the country, fanned by gale-force winds. Another died in a separate fire in the Peloponnese region as the blazes continued into Thursday.

“We have difficult days ahead of us,” Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said.

Firefighters in Turkiye have been battling at least 115 fires across the country, although at least 110 were under control, according to the country’s agriculture minister.

An enormous wildfire has forced evacuations and prompted road closures in eastern England. The fire at Dunwich Heath, a significant biodiversity site, is one of the largest the region has seen.

A spike in mortality

The tightening restrictions have forced the Cuban government to effectively ration care.

In February, Havana announced a package of emergency energy-saving measures. Among them was the suspension of all non-essential medical services across the island.

But non-essential does not mean unimportant. Fernandez, the paediatric anaesthesiologist, explained that preventive healthcare plays a major role in saving lives.

Under normal conditions, he said, preventive healthcare helps doctors catch potentially fatal conditions like appendicitis sooner.

But in recent months, Fernandez has observed patients arriving at his hospital in a “worsened” condition than they might otherwise have had.

“All the appendicitis cases we treat now present complications,” he said. “They demand more resources and antibiotics – supplies we don’t have.”

Deaths in Cuba have also escalated as years of increasing restrictions take effect.

Just last month, the Cuban Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP) reported that survival rates for childhood cancer dropped from 85 percent to 65 percent amid the oil blockade.

Infant mortality has also steadily climbed. In 2017, at the start of Trump’s first term, Cuba had an infant mortality rate of four for every 1,000 live births. That figure climbed to 7.7 in 2024, just before Trump’s second term, and reached 9.9 in 2025.

The maternal mortality rate similarly rose to 44.1 deaths for every 100,000 live births by the end of 2025, up from 40.6 the previous year.

Lilian Delgado, an obstetrician and gynaecologist at Cuba’s main maternity hospital, explained that the escalating humanitarian crisis has triggered a sharp rise in premature births and severe morbidity among pregnant women.

“Conditions are far from ideal at all the levels of the system,” Delgado noted. “There are shortages everywhere.”

The decision to prioritise emergency care can be deceptive. A wide range of medical procedures are considered “elective”. But just because they do not rise to the level of an emergency does not mean they are optional.

Typically, in Cuba, emergency surgeries are those that need to be urgently completed within 48 hours. Other necessary surgeries often fall into the “elective” category.

Mastectomies – a common breast cancer treatment – are among the surgeries often categorised as elective. So too are some organ transplants.

Healthcare advocates point out that, if certain elective surgeries are postponed too long, they too can result in deadly conditions.

More than 100,000 Cubans are currently on waiting lists for elective or reconstructive surgeries, a backlog MINSAP credited to the US sanctions.

Among those waiting are 5,152 cancer patients and approximately 12,000 children. Delgado said some of her patients have been languishing on such lists for months.

“Our surgical services are severely hampered by a lack of supplies,” she explained. “We have more women suffering from serious complications, and our operating rooms have become tied up with emergency cases, making it impossible to perform elective surgeries.”

Hospitals in Cuba largely have backup generators to weather the increasingly frequent power outages. But accessing even emergency medical care is tough when the fuel blockade is affecting basic services like transportation.

“Ultimately, if you have a cancer patient and cannot operate due to a number of factors – such as a nationwide blackout forcing the suspension of surgeries – then, whether you intend to or not, you are directly condemning that patient to death,” Delgado said.

The oil embargo has cost “human lives, both directly and indirectly”, she added.

GDP grew by 1.5 percent in the second quarter following a 2.1 percent increase in first quarter.

Economic growth in the United States slowed in the second quarter amid a growing trade deficit and tensions between the US and Iran which weighed on global fuel prices.

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of goods and services, grew by 1.5 percent between April and June, marking a slowdown from 2.1 percent growth in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis report released on Thursday.

Consumer spending saw a bump of 3.2 percent for the quarter, both on the back of generous tax refunds from US President Donald Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ as well as heightened petrol prices that cost consumers.

Fuel prices are on the upswing after a brief reprieve. The average price for a gallon of petrol (3.78 litres) is $4.09, up from $3.84 this time last month, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices. By comparison, the average price was $2.98 when the US and Israel first struck Iran on February 28 .

Analysts also point to the artificial intelligence spending boom as a reason for the surge, even as those are heavily import reliant and contributing to trade deficits.

“Overall, the economy continues to rely on technology investment,” Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

That will likely continue into third-quarter reports, which will take into account the month of July. On Monday, it was reported that Nvidia is in talks to make a $250m investment in OpenAI.

However, there are concerns about how long such investments will last amid questions over circular financing propping up the sector.

“Data centres continue to drive investment and economic growth, increasing the sector’s role in the economy while raising questions about its sustainability,” Ziemba said.

Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price (PCE) Index report, one of the US Federal Reserve’s key metrics for gauging the rate of inflation, increased 3.7 percent on an annual basis for the month of June after a 4.1 percent surge in May.

The slowdown was marked by a brief retreat in petrol prices last month before they climbed higher again over the past month.

“Today’s report is a snapshot of an economy under a ceasefire that no longer exists. Even with last month’s temporary inflation relief, prices are still elevated and families are saving less as they try to keep up,” Alex Jacquez, a member of the National Economic Council under former US President Joe Biden, said in a note provided to Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at 3.5-3.75 percent.

US markets are on the upswing in midday trading, largely driven by an increase in Microsoft stock amid better-than-expected sales and growth in cloud services. Markets have also risen following the PCE and GDP reports.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 2.6 percent, with the S&P 500 following at 1.2 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.5 percent.

Gold prices, which are typically considered a safe investment during economic uncertainty, extended their gains by 1.9 percent to $4,108.30 per ounce after rising 2 percent on Wednesday.

The U.S. Air Force says a prototype jet engine developed under the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program could be ready for integration onto an actual aircraft in 2030. The fruits of NGAP have long been expected to power the new F-47 fighter, and potentially other aircraft. The schedule here, however, raises the question of what engine will be used on the F-47, at least to start with, as that jet is expected to fly for the first time in 2028. Depending on how long full development lasts, the first operational F-47s might use different engines than the ones the design is ultimately expected to receive to unlock its full potential.

John Sneden, the Portfolio Acquisition Executive in charge of the Propulsion Directorate at the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC), recently shared new details about the NGAP effort. Sneden provided the update on the next-generation engine program at the Life Cycle Industry Days conference in Dayton, Ohio, which opened yesterday. Dayton is home to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, which is where the AFLCMC is headquartered.

The Air Force is “get[ting] ready for potential [NGAP] integration activities in the 2030 timeframe,” Sneden said, according to a report today from Breaking Defense. “What we’re doing right now is we’re building our system today, and we’re getting ready for the future.”

This is in line with the Air Force’s 2027 Fiscal year budget proposal, released earlier this year, which says NGAP’s “Prototype Fabrication & Engine Assessment” phase will run through at least September 2031. The budget documents also show a planned surge in NGAP spending over the next three years or so. The Air Force is asking for nearly $513.7 million for the program in the upcoming fiscal cycle, and then expects to request $905.7 million and $865 million in Fiscal Years 2028 and 2029, respectively. Projected annual funding then drops into the roughly $300 million range in Fiscal Years 2030 and 2031, which is as far out as the currently available outlay extends.

What is reflected in the budget outlay “is really about building engines, testing engines, and then we’ll be rolling through that competitively over the next few years,” Sneden said at the conference in Dayton, according to another report from Air & Space Forces Magazine.

“The Air Force is still evaluating its options,” Sneden added, per Breaking Defense, when asked about what aircraft might fly first with an NGAP engine. The F-47 “could” be one option, but the advanced nature of the technology might “open up” the door to other possibilities, he noted. The F-47 program is highly classified, which also limits what can be said about the jets and their expected capabilities, in general.

When it comes to where NGAP stands now, “initial hardware is procured, their design meets our standards, everything is clean from that end, and both vendors have been able to do that,” Sneden said, per Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The two vendors in question are General Electric and Pratt & Whitney, the latter of which is a subsidiary of Raytheon (now formally called RTX). Both firms announced they had completed assembly readiness reviews of their respective designs, known as the XA102 and XA103, in May. The two companies have already been working for years on their competing prototypes. Last year, they both saw the cost ceilings on their existing NGAP contracts rise to $3.5 billion. Those deals cover work through 2032.

NGAP has also been leveraging work done under an earlier Air Force effort called the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP), which both General Electric and Pratt & Whitney also participated in. In 2023, the service canceled AETP, which was exploring options for a new engine for variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). Upgrades for the existing Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, which currently powers all versions of the F-35, are now in the works instead.

More specific details about the XA102 and XA103 continue to be limited, but both are known to be so-called adaptive cycle designs. In very broad terms, jet engines of this kind can perform like a turbofan when optimal and more like a turbojet when needed. This offers benefits in terms of fuel economy and power in the same engine. Being able to conserve fuel while transiting to and from an operating area would help extend range and increase loiter time. This could also help reduce demands on already strained tanker fleets and offer more general cost benefits.

P&W XA103

To provide some additional context, General Electric has said in the past that the XA100 design it developed for AETP was around 25 percent more efficient than the F135. It was also said to offer between 10 and 20 percent more thrust than the Pratt & Whitney engine in certain flight profiles.

GE’s XA100 Adaptive Cycle Engine

This is all seen as especially valuable for traditionally fuel-hungry tactical jets like the F-47. Extended range and loiter time, and reduced need for tankers, would also be of particular utility in any future high-end fight against China across the broad expanses of the Pacific. TWZ touched on all of this in our recent detailed feature on what is currently known (and unknown) about the F-47’s design, which you can find here.

As already mentioned, a big question now is what engines will be used on the F-47, at least to begin with. The Air Force has consistently said that it is targeting a first flight for the F-47 in 2028. Sneden, head of the Propulsion Directorate, has now said that the service is not expecting to have an NGAP engine ready for integration until 2030.

Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that Air Force Col. Timothy Helfrich, the Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Fighters and Advanced Aircraft, declined to speak to F-47 propulsion plans when asked separately at the conference in Dayton.

It is not entirely uncommon for new aircraft prototypes to use a different engine from the one planned for production examples. As one example, Lockheed’s Cold War-era F-104 Starfighter was developed around the General Electric J79 turbojet, but that engine was not ready for the start of flight testing. So early XF-104 prototypes used older and less powerful Wright J65 turbojets instead.

In some cases, the initial production batches of aircraft have even entered operational service with different engines than were originally expected due to various factors. Spiral developments can include new engines regardless of what the original might have been, too. For instance, Northrop Grumman originally planned to use Pratt & Whitney F401 turbofans on the F-14 Tomcat, but that engine program was cancelled. Pratt & Whitney TF30 turbofans were used instead on early F-14As. However, problems and limitations surrounding those engines led to General Electric F110 turbofans being integrated onto later examples of the Tomcat.

Similar spiral engine developments for combat aircraft have been seen outside the United States, too, including with China’s J-20 and Russia’s Su-57.

For the F-47, there are certainly existing in-production designs with relevant performance, such as the F135 and F100 from Pratt & Whitney, and the General Electric F110, which are used on various tactical jets today. Another possibility might be to use an otherwise available design like Pratt & Whitney’s F119 (currently only found on the F-22 Raptor), at least for initial flight testing. The F135 is based on the F119, but the latter is optimized for higher performance, including operations at higher altitudes and cruising at supersonic speeds (supercruise). The F119 is also out of production, at least as far as we know.

Pratt & Whitney F135 Overview

At the same time, the F-47 is a highly optimized and integrated platform with range and performance targets being key aspects of the design. The jet will likely have to be capable of supercruise and be able to fly at very high altitudes, pointing to a need for an F119-like or similar design.

The physical trade space on the F-47 allotted for any engine, as well as the fuel system, and any other associated components, will be largely static. There will be cooling and accessory power demands to factor in. There is then the matter of the jet’s intakes to consider, which is a critical aspect to consider for safe and reliable engine function. They also have to be optimized for the chosen engine and its airflow demands throughout the expected flight envelope. Furthermore, historically, stealthy inlets have been especially complicated to design in a way that blends seamlessly with the rest of the planform while still providing sufficient airflow.

Planning for a redesign of the F-47’s airframe down the line to accommodate an NGAP engine might well be a non-starter. The cost and complexity of integrating an AETP engine into the F-35, which might not have been feasible at all for the F-35B variant with its unique design constraints, directly factored into the cancellation of that program.

Again, this all depends on the F-47’s core design and to what degree the ability to accommodate new engines down the line has already been baked in.

It is worth noting here that some existing type or types of engine have already been powering the flying demonstrators that helped give birth to the F-47. New engine types that have yet to be disclosed might have been used on those aircraft, though it seems less likely to have two similar programs unless there were very special requirements that we do not yet know about. Regardless, how reflective any of those designs might be of the expected production configuration of the F-47 is unclear.

The initial batch of production F-47s could enter operational service with a different engine than what is expected to be integrated onto future versions, if this is not already the plan. The Air Force has said it is hoping to start fielding these jets in the early 2030s. There have also been reports that the service might not reach a real operational capability with the type until the middle of the next decade.

As an aside, having multiple true alternative engine options for a single aircraft can also help guard against disruptions in the supply of one particular type across the life of the program. The decision to axe procurement of the General Electric/Rolls-Royce F136 as an alternative for the F-35 family, ostensibly as a cost-cutting measure, was notably controversial at the time. It has since come to be seen as somewhat short-sighted given issues with F135 production.

The F-47 is not the only potential application for NGAP engines or technology derived from them, either. In particular, whatever sixth-generation fighter design the U.S. Navy ultimately selects as the winner of its F/A-XX competition would also benefit from next-generation adaptive cycle propulsion. The Air Force also talked in the past about advances from the preceding AETP effort filtering down to its F-15, F-16, and F-22 fleets, as well as the F-35.

“We built NGAP as essentially an agnostic system,” Sneden said in Dayton, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine. “It was, build the system first, open up options for the future, and then when those options come to the forefront, we’ll be able to take advantage of it. You have to lean into propulsion technology first.”

“Not everything has to have an adaptive fan,” he added per that same outlet. “So we can actually take that backwards as well and incorporate it in some of our legacy platforms. So there is a great utilization for this type of tech.”

The Air Force is clearly very committed to NGAP, as underscored by the planning and budgeting around the program in the coming years. From what the service has disclosed to date, the work done already has been very fruitful and is now on track to result in at least one design being ready for flight testing in the next four years.

At the same time, the Air Force seems confident that an NGAP engine will not be available for integration before the F-47 is expected to make its maiden flight. There is also immense pressure to get the F-47 into service on an accelerated timetable, and for Boeing then to meet key milestones.

If the schedules hold for the two programs, this means that another propulsion option will have to be used on the F-47 at the start, no matter what happens with either program further down the line.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters is facing backlash after telling a Chinese-born MP to ‘go back to your own country’ during a parliamentary debate. The remarks drew criticism at home, while China urged New Zealand politicians not to invoke Beijing in domestic disputes.

Some victims of disgraced undertaker Robert Bush have not been refunded for fake funeral plans he sold them, a court has heard.

The 48-year-old defrauded 172 people over 11 years to the tune of £562,000, Hull Crown Court was told.

He previously admitted 67 offences in relation to his business, Legacy Independent Funeral Directors in Hull, including failing to bury and cremate people, theft from 12 charities, fraudulent trading in funeral plans, and fraud.

On the fourth day of his sentencing hearing, one woman said her parents, who paid £2,649 each for funeral plans, were not alive “to see the justice they deserved”. Another said she had not been refunded £5,000 for two policies.

This story contains details some might find distressing.

Wiping her eyes with a tissue, Maxine Hill told Mr Justice Hilliard the bank refused to refund the money fraudulently taken by Bush, whom Hill knew personally.

Bush visited both her parents, Margaret and John, in their own home and issued a handwritten receipt to her mother who paid him in cash.

The bank initially refunded the amount paid by Hill’s father but 90 days later, the bank took the money back saying “there was no evidence that he hadn’t received a product”, the court heard.

Both have since died – Margaret in May 2024 and John in June 2025.

China’s top leaders pledged on Thursday to support the country’s slowing economy by accelerating spending on already-approved infrastructure projects instead of rolling out large-scale stimulus measures. The decision came after recent economic data showed second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3%, the weakest pace in more than three years and below the government’s annual target range of 4.5% to 5.0%.

The commitment followed a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo, where policymakers acknowledged mounting economic challenges but signaled confidence that existing fiscal resources would be sufficient to stabilize growth through the remainder of the year.

Infrastructure Spending Takes Center Stage

Rather than introducing fresh stimulus packages, Beijing plans to speed up implementation of projects that have already been budgeted. Analysts said the government still has significant fiscal room because infrastructure spending and bond issuance progressed more slowly than planned during the first half of the year.

Economists expect much of the spending to focus on China’s “six networks” initiative, covering investments in water systems, logistics infrastructure, underground pipelines, electricity grids, telecommunications and computing power centers. State media has previously indicated that roughly $1 trillion has been allocated for these projects.

Analysts viewed the Politburo’s statement as confirmation that Beijing intends to support growth without significantly expanding its fiscal deficit.

Concerns Over Overcapacity Remain

Chinese leaders continue to avoid aggressive stimulus partly because they remain focused on tackling industrial overcapacity and encouraging local governments to maintain fiscal discipline.

The Politburo reiterated its commitment to addressing what it described as “involution competition”—a term referring to intense price wars among manufacturers competing for market share at the expense of profitability. While many economists argue that excess industrial capacity is driving these price wars, Beijing continues to reject claims that overcapacity is a structural problem.

Weak Consumer Demand Continues to Weigh on Growth

Although manufacturing exports and advances in artificial intelligence have supported parts of the economy, domestic consumption remains weak.

China’s prolonged property downturn, sluggish wage growth and a challenging labor market have reduced household confidence. Millions of workers have shifted into lower-paying gig economy jobs with limited social protections, encouraging higher savings rather than consumer spending.

This imbalance has increased China’s reliance on exports to sustain growth, raising concerns among trading partners that Chinese manufacturers are flooding global markets while domestic demand remains subdued.

Employment Support Remains a Priority

The Politburo pledged to strengthen domestic demand by expanding employment support, particularly for flexible workers and those in newer forms of employment. However, officials did not announce specific policies aimed at boosting household incomes.

Economists noted that while Beijing continues to emphasize consumption, its strategy remains focused on improving the supply of goods and services rather than directly increasing consumer purchasing power through large-scale income support or cash stimulus.

Outlook

The latest policy signals suggest Beijing is seeking to balance economic stability with long-term structural reforms. Rather than relying on broad stimulus, China’s leadership is betting that faster implementation of existing infrastructure investments and targeted employment measures will be enough to keep the economy on track while avoiding a surge in debt and further industrial overcapacity.

With information from Reuters.

Israeli strikes hit multiple areas across Gaza overnight, including tents sheltering displaced families in al-Mawasi, Khan Younis. In Gaza City, an attack on a residential apartment injured many Palestinians, most of them children, according to eyewitnesses.

Deadly clashes reported in Pakistan-administered Kashmir amid first round of voting for regional elections on July 27.

Watchdogs have raised concerns over mounting reports of deadly clashes during regional elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where a banned activist group has boycotted the vote and staged protests.

The clashes between police and protesters earlier this week killed more than 30 people in the region, according to the leaders of the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC).

In a video statement on Wednesday shared by Arab News Pakistan, JAAC committee member Sardar Umar Nazir claimed 20 of the group’s supporters had been killed during a march on Monday, when the first round of voting took place.

He listed reports of at least 10 other protesters being killed the following day in the towns of Rawalakot, Mirpur and elsewhere, including during sit-ins.

“Our demand was peaceful, it was peaceful, we tried to keep it non-violent and bullets were fired at it,” said Nazir in the video statement.

Pakistani authorities said a member of the security personnel was killed and five more were injured in clashes on Monday.

Rights group Amnesty International called the reports of lethal force against protesters in the area “disturbing” and urged an investigation.

Pear Pandya, a senior analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, said the violence in Pakistan-administered Kashmir “is bound to overshadow the legitimacy of the entire electoral exercise”.

Monday’s first-round vote – covering the districts of Mirpur, Kotli and Bhimber – will be followed by two more rounds on August 2 and August 10.

Pakistan’s primary governing party, ⁠the PML-N, won nine out of the 13 seats that were up for election on Monday.

No justification to ‘mete out violence’

JAAC was banned by the local government under “anti-terrorism laws” in June, causing deadly protests to erupt in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Banking, roads and internet services have largely been disrupted since then, hindering the flow of information.

Pakistani officials have justified the crackdown by alleging that armed and India-backed fighters joined the Kashmiri protesters. India has rejected similar accusations in the past.

Amnesty has called the ban on JAAC unlawful and said it does not provide justification for authorities to “mete out deadly violence against protesters”.

The rights group has also urged Pakistani authorities to ”restore all communications access and allow media and independent observers into the area”, its acting regional director for South Asia, Isabelle Lassee, said.

‘Controversial’ seats

One of JAAC’s central demands regarding the regional elections is the abolition of 12 assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees.

JAAC supporters say the seats are used by major Pakistani political parties to tip the composition of the local parliament in their favour with those who mostly live outside the region.

To form a regional government, the PML-N would likely need the support of some of the 12 representatives, said Hasan Askari, ‌a political analyst.

“But when their government is dependent on those 12 controversial seats, how would it be able to find a solution for this issue?” Askari told the Reuters news agency.

Even among the candidates that did not boycott the vote on Monday, the results were contested. Parties accused each other of ballot ‌box ‌stealing and vote rigging.

On July 10, almost exactly a year after the Pentagon announced it was becoming the largest shareholder in MP Materials, the International Energy Agency put a number on what that deal was designed to prevent: $6.5 trillion in global downstream production now sits exposed to China’s rare-earth export curbs — restrictions currently suspended under an October 2025 truce that lapses again around October 2026. In the year between those two dates, Washington did not simply subsidize its way out of dependency on Chinese processing. It bought in: $400 million for 15 percent of MP Materials, a decade-long price floor for neodymium-praseodymium set nearly double the market rate, and a ten-year promise to buy everything a new Texas magnet plant produces. The Pentagon is now, functionally, a mining shareholder. The interesting question is not whether that has worked — MP’s private financing round attracted $1 billion from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs within weeks — but what it costs to win a state-capitalist contest by becoming a state capitalist.

The stakes are structural, not cyclical. China controls roughly 70 percent of the world’s rare-earth and critical-mineral refining capacity, a chokepoint built over three decades while Western producers treated minerals as ordinary commodities rather than strategic assets. Beijing’s October 2025 tariff-war truce with Washington postponed, rather than cancelled, an expanded licensing regime that already cut U.S. yttrium imports from 333 tonnes to 17 tonnes in eight months — a squeeze aerospace manufacturers say could force production pauses. Washington’s answer has three parts: Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private stockpile signed by executive order on February 2, 2026, covering all 60 minerals on the USGS critical list; a fast-growing portfolio of direct government equity stakes in miners and processors; and a parallel push to sign allied-supply agreements with eight partners, including Australia, Japan, the UK and the UAE. Europe, meanwhile, is running a different playbook: a €3 billion RESourceEU plan, a joint-purchasing platform, and a stockpiling pilot — procurement and coordination, not ownership.

The MP Materials deal is the template, and its mechanics matter more than its headline. The Department of Defense’s July 2025 investment made it MP’s largest shareholder, attached a $150 million loan for expanding the Mountain Pass mine, and guaranteed a $110-per-kilogram floor price for NdPr oxide — a level industry analysts put at nearly double the prevailing market price — alongside a ten-year offtake covering the full output of a planned magnet facility in Fort Worth. Private capital followed the government’s signal almost immediately, which is precisely the point: Washington concluded that a guarantee was worth more to investors than a grant. That logic has since scaled. The administration has taken a $670 million stake in magnet producer Vulcan Elements, a 10 percent, $35.6 million position in Trilogy Metals, converted a renegotiated Energy Department loan into equity in Lithium Americas, and expanded the official critical-minerals list to include copper and metallurgical coal. Total direct equity commitments now exceed $1 billion, on top of Project Vault’s $12 billion stockpile.

The backlash has been immediate and specific, and it is worth taking seriously rather than waving off as sour grapes. Rival producers argue the price floor lets MP “undercut commercial bids, using federal subsidies to shield its margins,” while former White House and Pentagon officials warn the arrangement could “distort global NdPr pricing, crowd out innovation, and deter private investment in alternative supply chains” — in effect, recreating the very state-directed monopoly the policy exists to counter. That is the strongest objection, and it does not fully land: a government willing to take equity risk, rather than hand out grants, at least has an incentive to see the investment succeed and can in principle profit from the upside, which is the argument the Treasury and National Energy Dominance Council make for why this is smarter policy than Cold War-style stockpiling alone. But the objection identifies a real cost even if it doesn’t defeat the policy: an above-market, government-guaranteed price for one company makes every unsubsidized competitor in the same commodity harder to finance, which narrows rather than widens the eventual supplier base — the opposite of the diversification the strategy claims to deliver.

There is a second problem the price-floor logic obscures: capital committed is not the same as metal produced. The Center for Strategic and International Studies frames this as the difference between “distance” — how much progress has been announced — and “displacement” — how far supply chains have actually moved from their starting point. Japan’s experience with Lynas Rare Earths is the sobering comparison: fifteen years and $250 million of patient, low-drama investment before Lynas achieved the first commercial dysprosium production outside China, in 2025. Washington’s approach substitutes speed and scale for that patience, which may be the correct trade given the urgency, but it means the MP deal’s real test has not yet arrived — it arrives when the Fort Worth facility is supposed to reach full commercial output, not when Wall Street decides to match the Pentagon’s bet.

None of this is happening in a China-versus-America vacuum, either. The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export suspension specifically to tighten leverage over Chinese refiners, and Indonesia has repeatedly resisted pressure to loosen nickel export quotas, forcing processing onshore on its own terms. Producer states, not only the two superpowers, are now treating minerals as instruments of strategic leverage rather than commodities to be sold at whatever price clears the market. That reframes the whole contest: this is not simply Washington racing to catch Beijing, but a broader shift in which every government that sits on a mineral deposit is deciding whether to sell it or wield it.

Which is where Europe’s exposure becomes concrete. RESourceEU gives Brussels coordination and buying power, but no board seats and no offtake priority — and Chatham House’s own assessment is blunt that the UK and EU “cannot match the scale of what the US is attempting” and risk being “left behind” without equity of their own. That matters because Washington’s price floors do not stay domestic: a guaranteed $110/kg for MP’s output resets the benchmark every other buyer, including European manufacturers, has to price against, while offtake agreements tied to U.S. defense production can put European buyers behind the queue when supply tightens. The diversification Europe wants — away from dependence on Beijing — is real, but the replacement supply chain now runs increasingly through companies Washington part-owns and whose output is pre-committed to American industry first. Substituting one chokepoint for another is not the same as building a market.

What Happens Next

Base case (our estimate: roughly 55 percent probability). Washington’s equity-and-price-floor model extends to more minerals — copper and metallurgical coal are already on the list — and more companies, Project Vault’s stockpile builds through 2026–27, and the October 2025 China truce holds past its lapse date. Europe continues a purchasing-only strategy, remaining a price-taker on a benchmark increasingly set in Washington rather than Shanghai. This depends on Congress and private markets continuing to treat government equity as a credible signal rather than a fiscal liability, and on China preferring managed leverage over an open rupture.

Downside case. China allows the truce to lapse on schedule around October 2026 and resumes full licensing enforcement — already quietly restarting, according to recent customs-audit reports — before Vault-funded and MP-style projects reach meaningful output. Aerospace and defense manufacturers, already forced to ration yttrium and dysprosium at a fraction of pre-2025 volumes, face renewed production pauses in the exact window (2026–2028) when domestic capacity is still years from scale, exposing the gap between announced investment and actual tonnage.

Upside case. Government stakes prove to be a bridge rather than a permanent structure: MP, Vulcan Elements and Lithium Americas hit production targets on schedule, price floors become unnecessary as Japan’s Lynas eventually showed is possible after fifteen years of patient investment, and the eight-nation allied-supply framework matures into a genuinely plural, competitively priced market that Europe can buy into on equal terms rather than through Washington’s balance sheet.

The Pentagon’s bet on MP Materials shows that the fastest way to out-compete a state-directed rival was to become one — and by the only metric available so far, capital raised, that gamble is working. But capital raised is not resilience, and every mineral now being withheld or weaponized elsewhere, from Congolese cobalt to Indonesian nickel, shows the world’s supply chains are being redrawn along political lines everywhere, not simply rerouted away from Beijing.

Watch whether China lets its rare-earth export truce lapse on schedule around October 2026, and whether MP Materials’ Fort Worth magnet plant is producing at commercial scale when it does. If the truce holds and the plant delivers, Washington’s ownership model will keep expanding. If either fails, the U.S. will have discovered it bought a shareholding in a company, not a supply chain immune to the country it was built to out-manoeuvre.