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Asian equities advanced on Friday as improving sentiment around U.S.-China trade relations and upbeat corporate earnings from Wall Street lifted investor confidence. The White House confirmed that President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during Trump’s Asia tour, raising hopes of progress before the looming November 1 tariff deadline. Japan’s Nikkei index surged ahead of a key policy speech by new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to announce a stimulus plan to support growth. Meanwhile, oil prices, which had risen earlier in the week after Washington imposed new sanctions on Russian energy majors Rosneft and Lukoil, slipped slightly as traders took profits and weighed potential supply disruptions.
Why It Matters
The market rally reflects cautious optimism that diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing could prevent further escalation in trade tensions, which have weighed on global growth. With the U.S. government shutdown delaying most official data releases, Friday’s consumer price index report has taken on added importance for investors seeking clues about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. In Japan, inflation data showing a 2.9% rise in core consumer prices has kept expectations alive for a near-term rate hike, a significant shift after years of loose monetary policy. Energy markets, meanwhile, remain on edge as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers threaten to tighten global supply chains, potentially reshaping energy flows and impacting prices worldwide.
The unfolding developments are being closely watched by a range of global actors. The U.S. and China remain the principal players in the trade negotiations, with their decisions likely to shape market confidence in the weeks ahead. The Federal Reserve faces pressure to balance inflation control with growth stability as it prepares for its policy meeting next week. Japan’s new leadership under Takaichi is navigating a delicate mix of economic reform and inflation management. Global investors and multinational corporations are also directly affected, as currency movements, oil volatility, and trade uncertainty feed into market strategies and investment decisions.
What’s Next
Attention now turns to the release of U.S. CPI data, expected to hold at 3.1%, which will help guide the Fed’s next policy move amid limited economic visibility caused by the shutdown. The scheduled Trump–Xi meeting in Malaysia next week could determine whether Washington proceeds with additional tariffs on Chinese imports or opts for a temporary truce. Japan’s fiscal policy announcements later today may also set the tone for regional growth in the final quarter of the year. In energy markets, traders will be watching Russia’s response to the sanctions and any signs of supply re-routing that could influence oil prices in the short term.
Growing up in Rawalpindi, a city adjacent to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, Mahnoor Omer remembers the shame and anxiety she felt in school when she had periods. Going to the toilet with a sanitary pad was an act of stealth, like trying to cover up a crime.
“I used to hide my pad up my sleeve like I was taking narcotics to the bathroom,” says Omer, who comes from a middle-class family – her father a businessman and her mother a homemaker. “If someone talked about it, teachers would put you down.” A classmate once told her that her mother considered pads “a waste of money”.
“That’s when it hit me,” says Omer. “If middle-class families think this way, imagine how out of reach these products are for others.”
Now 25, Omer has gone from cautious schoolgirl to national centrestage in a battle that could reshape menstrual hygiene in Pakistan, a country where critics say economics is compounding social stigma to punish women – simply for being women.
In September, Omer, a lawyer, petitioned the Lahore High Court, challenging what she and many others say is effectively a “period tax” imposed by Pakistan on its more than 100 million women.
Pakistani governments have, under the Sales Tax Act of 1990, long charged an 18 percent sales tax on locally manufactured sanitary pads and a customs tax of 25 percent on imported ones, as well as on raw materials needed to make them. Add on other local taxes, and UNICEF Pakistan says that these pads are often effectively taxed at about 40 percent.
Omer’s petition argues that these taxes – which specifically affect women – are discriminatory, and violate a series of constitutional provisions that guarantee equality and dignity, elimination of exploitation and the promotion of social justice.
In a country where menstruation is already a taboo subject in most families, Omer and other lawyers and activists supporting the petition say that the taxes make it even harder for most Pakistani women to access sanitary products. A standard pack of commercially branded sanitary pads in Pakistan currently costs about 450 rupees ($1.60) for 10 pieces. In a country with a per capita income of $120 a month, that’s the cost of a meal of rotis and dal for a low-income family of four. Cut the cost by 40 percent – the taxes – and the calculations become less loaded against sanitary pads.
At the moment, only 12 percent of Pakistani women use commercially produced sanitary pads, according to a 2024 study by UNICEF and the WaterAid nonprofit. The rest improvise using cloth or other materials, and often do not even have access to clean water to wash themselves.
“If this petition goes forward, it’s going to make pads affordable,” says Hira Amjad, the founder and executive director of Dastak Foundation, a Pakistani nonprofit whose work is focused on promoting gender equality and combating violence against women.
And that, say lawyers and activists, could serve as a spark for broader social change.
The court docket describes the case as Mahnoor Omer against senior officials of the government of Pakistan. But that’s not what it feels like to Omer.
“It feels like women versus Pakistan.”
Activists of Mahwari Justice, a menstrual rights group, distributing period kits to women in Pakistan [Photo courtesy Mahwari Justice]
‘It’s not shameful’
Bushra Mahnoor, founder of Mahwari Justice, a Pakistani student-led organisation whose name translates to “menstrual justice”, realised early just how much of a struggle it could be to access sanitary pads.
Mahnoor – no relation to Omer – grew up in Attock, a city in the northwestern part of Pakistan’s Punjab province, with four sisters. “Every month, I had to check if there were enough pads. If my period came when one of my sisters had hers too,” finding a pad was a challenge, she says.
The struggle continued in school, where, as was the case with Omer, periods were associated with shame. A teacher once made one of her classmates stand for two entire lectures because her white uniform was stained. “That was dehumanising,” she says.
Mahnoor was 10 when she had her first period. “I didn’t know how to use a pad. I stuck it upside down; the sticky side touched my skin. It was painful. No one tells you how to manage it.”
She says that shame was never hers alone, but it’s part of a silence which starts at home and accompanies girls into adulthood. A study on menstrual health in Pakistan shows that eight out of 10 girls feel embarrassed or uncomfortable when talking about periods, and two out of three girls report never having received information about menstruation before it began. The findings, published in the Frontiers in Public Health journal in 2023, link this silence to poor hygiene, social exclusion and missed school days.
In 2022, when floods devastated Pakistan, Mahnoor began Mahwari Justice to ensure that relief camps did not overlook the menstrual needs of women. “We began distributing pads and later realised there’s so much more to be done,” she says. Her organisation has distributed more than 100,000 period kits – each containing pads, soap, underwear, detergent and painkillers – and created rap songs and comics to normalise conversations about menstruation. “When you say the word ‘mahwari’ out loud, you’re teaching people it’s not shameful,” she says. “It’s just life.”
The same floods also influenced Amjad, the Dastak Foundation founder, though her nonprofit has been around for a decade now. Its work now also includes distributing period kits during natural disasters.
But the social stigma associated with menstruation is also closely tied to economics in the ways in which its impact plays out for Pakistani women, suggests Amjad.
“In most households, it’s the men who make financial decisions,” she says. “Even if the woman is bringing the money, she’s giving it to the man, and he is deciding where that money needs to go.”
And if the cost of women’s health feels too high, that’s often compromised. “[With] the inflated prices due to the tax, there is no conversation in many houses about whether we should buy pads,” she says. “It’s an expense they cannot afford organically.”
According to the 2023 study in the Frontiers in Public Health, over half of Pakistani women are not able to afford sanitary pads.
If the taxes are removed, and menstrual hygiene becomes more affordable, the benefits will extend beyond health, says Amjad.
School attendance rates for girls could improve, she said. Currently, more than half of Pakistan’s girls in the five to 16 age group are not in school, according to the United Nations. “We will have stress-free women. We will have happier and healthier women.”
Lawyer Ahsan Jehangir Khan, the co-petitioner with Mahnoor Omer, in the case demanding an end to the ‘period tax’ [Photo courtesy of Ahsan Jehangir Khan]
‘Feeling of justice’
Omer says her interest in women’s and minority rights began early. “What inspired me was just seeing the blatant mistreatment every day,” she says. “The economic, physical, and verbal exploitation that women face, whether it’s on the streets, in the media, or inside homes, never sat right with me.”
She credits her mother for making her grow up to be an empathetic and understanding person.
After completing school, she worked as a gender and criminal justice consultant at Crossroads Consultants, a Pakistan-based firm that collaborates with NGOs and development partners on gender and criminal justice reform. At the age of 19, she also volunteered at Aurat March, an annual women’s rights movement and protest held across Pakistan on International Women’s Day – it’s a commitment she has kept up since then.
Her first step into activism came at 16, when she and her friends started putting together “dignity kits”, small care packages for women in low-income neighbourhoods of Islamabad. “We would raise funds with bake sales or use our own money,” she recalls.
The money she was able to raise enabled her to distribute about 300 dignity kits that she and her friends made themselves. They each contained pads, underwear, pain medication and wipes. But she wanted to do more.
She got a chance when she started working at the Supreme Court in early 2025, first as a law clerk. She’s currently pursuing postgraduate studies in gender, peace and security at the London School of Economics and says that she will go back to Pakistan to resume her practice after she graduates.
She became friends with fellow lawyer Ahsan Jehangir Khan, who specialises in taxation and constitutional law. The plan to challenge the “period tax” emerged from their conversations.
“He pushed me to file this petition and try to get justice instead of just sitting around.”
Khan, who is a co-petitioner in the case, says that fighting the taxes is about more than accessibility and affordability of sanitary pads – it’s about justice. “It’s a tax on a biological function,” he says.
Tax policies in Pakistan, he says, are written by “a privileged elite, mostly men who have never had to think about what this tax means for ordinary women”. The constitution, he adds, “is very clear that you cannot have anything discriminatory against any gender whatsoever”.
To Amjad, the Dastak Foundation founder, the fight for menstrual hygiene is closely tied to her other passion – the struggle against climate change. The extreme weather-related crisis, such as floods, that Pakistan has faced in recent times, she says, hit women particularly hard.
She remembers the trauma many women she worked with after the 2022 floods described to her. “Imagine that you are living in a tent and you have mahwari [menstruation] for the first time,” she says. “You are not mentally prepared for it. You are running for your life. You don’t have access to safety or security. That trauma is a trauma for life.”
As temperatures rise on average, women will need to change sanitary pads more frequently during their periods – and a lack of adequate access will prove an even bigger problem, Amjad warns. She supports the withdrawal of taxes on sanitary pads – but only those made from cotton, not plastic ones that “take thousands of years to decompose”.
Amjad is also campaigning for paid menstruation leave. “I have come across women who were fired because they had pain during periods and couldn’t work,” she says. “When you are menstruating, one part of your brain is on menstruation. You can’t really focus properly.”
Meanwhile, opponents of the taxes are hoping that Omer’s petition will pressure the Pakistani government to follow other nations such as India, Nepal and the United Kingdom that have abolished their period taxes.
Taking on that mantle against the government’s policies didn’t come easily to Omer. Her parents, she says, were nervous at first about their daughter going to court against the government. “They said it’s never a good idea to take on the state,” she says.
Now, they’re proud of her, she says. “They understand why this matters.”
To her, the case is not just a legal fight. “When I think of this case, the picture that comes to mind … It’s not a courtroom, it’s a feeling of justice,” she says. “It makes me feel a sense of pride to be able to do this and take this step without fear.”
Kim marked one year since North Korean troops deployed to fight against Ukraine with the opening of a museum.
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has hailed his country’s “invincible” alliance with Russia, as he marked one year since his troops deployed to fight in Moscow’s war against Ukraine with the opening of a museum honouring soldiers who died in battle.
Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony in the capital Pyongyang on Thursday, Kim addressed the families of North Korean soldiers who “fought in the operations for liberating Kursk”, as he said their deployment to Russia “marked the beginning of a new history of militant solidarity” with Moscow.
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“The years of militant fraternity, in which a guarantee has been provided for the long-term development of the bilateral friendship at the cost of precious blood, will advance nonstop,” Kim said, according to state news agency KCNA.
Challenges of “domination and tyranny” cannot hinder ties between Russia and North Korea, Kim added.
The event attended by Kim was the latest public honouring of North Korean troops who fought to repel an incursion by Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region in 2024.
Kim said the museum – which will feature a cemetery, a memorial hall and a monument – dedicated to soldiers in overseas detachments, was the “first of its kind” in North Korean history.
“Today we are holding the groundbreaking ceremony of the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats that will hand down forever the shining life of the heroes and fallen soldiers of the overseas operations units, excellent sons of the Korean people and defenders of justice,” he said.
In October 2024, NATO, the United States and South Korean intelligence agencies said they had evidence that North Korean troops had been deployed to fight alongside the Russian military.
A month later, Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin officially ratified a mutual defence pact, raising international concern over growing military cooperation between the nuclear-armed states.
The Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships obliges both countries to provide immediate military assistance to each other using “all means” necessary if either faces “aggression”.
In April, North Korea confirmed for the first time it had deployed a contingent of soldiers to the front line to fight alongside Russian troops, and its forces had contributed to taking back Russian territory held by Ukraine.
The soldiers were deployed to “annihilate and wipe out the Ukrainian neo-Nazi occupiers and liberate the Kursk area in cooperation with the Russian armed forces”, Kim said at the time, according to KCNA.
Kyiv and Seoul estimate that North Korea deployed more than 10,000 troops in return for economic and military technology assistance from Russia.
Estimates of the casualty rate among North Korean forces have varied widely.
In September, South Korea’s intelligence agency said some 2,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed. In January, Ukraine said North Korean troops were withdrawn from battle after suffering heavy casualties. It was unclear how many North Koreans remain fighting alongside Russian forces.
Earlier this month, Ukraine claimed North Korean troops based in Russia were operating drones across the border on reconnaissance missions, providing the first report in months of North Korean soldiers engaging in battlefield roles.
“The Defence Forces of Ukraine have intercepted communications between North Korean drone operators and personnel of the Russian army,” the Ukrainian General Staff said.
The same week, South Korea’s defence minister said North Korea had likely received technical help from Russia for its submarine development in return for its military efforts against Ukraine.
John Healey says there has been a rise in Russian vessels threatening UK waters
Defence Secretary John Healey has a message for Russian President Vladimir Putin: “We’re hunting your submarines.”
There has been a “30% rise in Russian vessels threatening UK waters”, he says.
This, according to Healey, is evidence of increased “Russian aggression right across the board” which he says is impacting Europe, not just Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defence says Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic is now back to the same levels as the Cold War era.
The RAF and Royal Navy have been stepping up their watch of the North Atlantic, where Russian submarines are most active. The RAF is flying missions most days, sometimes around the clock and often reinforced by other Nato allies.
BBC News joined the defence secretary on a flight on one of the RAF’s new P-8 aircraft – the first media to be allowed to observe an active mission.
Members of the nine-strong crew face banks of monitors – showing them what’s happening both on and under the surface of the water.
It is, in effect, a high-tech spy plane, which is one reason why we’re not allowed to film or photograph any of the screens.
From the outside the P-8 may look like an airliner, just painted grey and with fewer windows. It is in fact the airframe of a Boeing 737, but inside it’s fitted out with sophisticated cameras and sensors and listening devices.
Observing the crews at work, Healey tells me: “Russia is challenging us; it’s testing us; it’s watching us. But these planes allow us to say to Putin – we’re watching you; we’re hunting your subs.”
At first, the crew track a number of surface vessels, using the aircraft’s cameras to look for any suspicious equipment or activity. At times they’re flying just a few hundred metres above the waves.
Last year, with help of the Royal Navy, an RAF P-8 monitored the Russian spy ship, Yantar, which was reported to be hovering over undersea cables in the Irish Sea.
Western nations are increasingly concerned that Russia might try to sever critical undersea cables as part of its hybrid warfare – causing chaos and disruption to internet communications.
Later, they switch the mission to hunt for submarines. At the back of the aircraft are stored 129 active and passive sonar buoys which can detect underwater sounds.
There’s a loud pop as the buoys are fired automatically. One of the cameras on board shows them falling by parachute into the water. There’s no sign of the torpedoes the aircraft can carry to destroy submarines.
One of the crew admits that finding a submarine is not always that easy.
But they know the signature sound of Russian submarines and are helped by a wider network of underwater sensors. In August the RAF, working with US and Norwegian P-8s, tracked a Russian submarine shadowing an American aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, on exercise in the North Atlantic.
‘Time to get more aware’
It is a team sport – and the team is about to get even bigger, as Germany has ordered eight of its own P-8 aircraft. For this flight, Healey has been joined by his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius.
German military personnel have already been training alongside their UK colleagues and for part of this mission there’s a German navy pilot in the cockpit.
Germany plans to frequently fly its own maritime patrols from RAF Lossiemouth – Pistorius tells me why.
“The North Atlantic is crucial, and it’s threatened by Russian nuclear submarines,” he says. “Therefore, we need to know what’s going on here in the deep sea.”
The German defence minister’s presence underlines the deepening defence relationship with the UK. There’s much closer co-operation following the signing of the Trinity House Agreement on defence last year.
Germany is already investing in the UK to build new tanks and armoured vehicles for the British Army. On this visit, Pistorius announced that Germany would be buying UK-made Sting Ray torpedoes for its P-8 aircraft. The two countries are also promising to work together on cyber-security.
Pistorius and Healey have already been leading Europe’s efforts to supply weapons to Ukraine. Now they’re turning their attention closer to home.
Pistorius says every day there is evidence of Russia’s hybrid warfare – “fake news, disinformation, hybrid attacks, the threat to undersea infrastructure”.
He says: “It’s time to get more aware of what’s going on.”
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
One of U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command’s new OA-1K Skyraider II light attack aircraft crashed today, not far from Will Rogers International Airport in Oklahoma, where the type is based as part of a partnership between the 492nd and 137th Special Operations Wings. Both crew members onboard — a contractor and an active-duty service member — were not injured in the incident, thankfully.
Images of the Skyraider II sitting damaged in a field began circulating on social media this afternoon.
The Oklahoma Air National Guard says that the aircraft was out on a training mission when the incident occurred and that the circumstances are currently under investigation.
The OA-1K is brand new to the USAF’s inventory, with the type fulfilling what is something of the final culmination of a long string of aborted requirements for a light attack aircraft specially configured for low-intensity missions, such as counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations. A synopsis of the OA-1K from a previous TWZ article on its official naming can be read below:
The two-seat OA-1K can carry up to 6,000 pounds of munitions and other stores, including precision-guided missiles and bombs and podded sensor systems, on up to eight underwing pylons. L3Harris has previously said the aircraft can fly out to an area up to 200 miles away and loiter there for up to six hours with a typical combat load. They also have a “robust suite of radios and datalinks providing multiple means for line-of-sight (LOS) and beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) communications,” according to the company.
AFSOC currently plans to acquire 75 Skyraider IIs, with the first example to be delivered this spring. The turboprop-powered OA-1K, a militarized derivative of the popular Air Tractor AT-802 crop duster, is a tail-dragging design like the much larger piston-engined Skyraider. The Skyraider II is set to be the first tail-dragging tactical combat aircraft anywhere in U.S. military inventory in decades.”
You can also check out our exclusive tour of the aircraft in the video below:
It’s quite possible the aircraft’s crop-duster roots helped keep the airframe and its crew intact when it came down in the field, as it’s built to operate from rough fields even in its suped-up military configuration.
We will update this post with any new information that becomes available in the next 24 hours about the mishap.
For Trump followers, his offer of a 20 to 40 billion economic assistance to Argentina came as a shock. For a government that emphasizes not spending American tax payers’ money abroad the record high foreign debt defaulter and agrobusiness competitor Argentina is a puzzling choice.
However, there are profound reasons for this outcome. In what follows, I will try to explain them. The first two motives are the most obvious ones, but I promise that the following two are the ones that are not that apparent though interesting to read.
The first reason, and more obvious one, is the ideological congruence between the executives. The Argentine president Milei shares Trump’s anti woke ideology, it has always been a Trump supporter and shares with him a deep-seated rejection for leftist governments and ideologies. However, whereas Trump is an economic nationalist, Milei brands himself as an “anarcho-capitalist” that profoundly believes that the powers of free market should reign without interference in order for economies and societies to succeed.
Secondly, next Sunday Milei will face a crucial midterm election. In a last September legislative vote in the crucial Buenos Aires province (that accounts for 40% of Argentina’s population) he lost against his arch rivals, the Peronist Party. The Peronist coalition, that governed Argentina for the most part of the last 25 years, held a leftist ideology that privileged bilateral relations with China over the US and that is a staunch critic of Trump’s policies. The following Monday, the Argentine peso faced very strong devaluation pressures that ended up drying up the Central Bank’s reserves.
Third, the US grand strategy has been under a deep transformation, at least since Obama`s presidency. It has been progressively withdrawing from the Middle East while focusing more on China. It has also demanded the Europeans (and also its allies in East Asians) to up their defence spending. This relative withdrawal is somewhat compensated by an increase of attention in its own neighbourhood, the Americas. It is under this lens that we can understand the recent US military actions against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, the suspension of economic aid to leftist governed Colombia and the huge tariffs applied to also leftist governed Brazil. Being Mexico also governed by a (somewhat pragmatic) leftist party and having in Chilean President Boric a staunch critic of Trump`s policies, the US is left with very few friends in the region. Right now, the only welcoming ally from a large country in the Americas is Argentina`s Milei.
Fourth, from the Argentine side, a change in the strategic outlook in part of its elites is also paving the way for an alliance with the US. The current Argentine executive, in its quest to achieve macroeconomic stability has as its most coveted goal the dollarization of the economy. This is the endpoint of the pro market economic reforms under way. At the same time, the Milei government supports the US and Israel in a fashion unseen in Argentine history. Worldwide, there are not many countries supporting the Trump agenda as thoroughly as Argentina.
There are strong indications that the deepening of the alliance between the US and Argentina is under way. However, near future events might change this course. Next month there will be presidential elections in Chile, while Colombia and Brazil will have theirs in May and October respectively. A win by the opposition in any of these countries will devalued the strategic relevance that Argentina holds right now. Secondly, will Trump successors double in an alliance with a country that has never been considered strategic for US interests? Finally, there is the question of Milei`s political future in Argentina. Good part of his ambitions and of Argentina’s grand strategy will be risked in next elections.
EU leaders had hoped to agree on a plan to fund a loan of 140 billion euros to bolster Ukraine.
Published On 23 Oct 202523 Oct 2025
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Leaders across the European Union have agreed to help Ukraine fund its fight against Russia’s invasion, but stopped short of approving a plan that would draw from frozen Russian assets to do so, after Belgium raised objections.
EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss Ukraine’s “pressing financial needs” for the next two years. Many leaders had hoped the talks would clear the way for a so-called “reparation loan”, which would use frozen Russian assets held by the Belgian financial institution Euroclear to fund a loan of 140 billion euros ($163.3bn) for Ukraine.
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The EU froze about 200 billion euros ($232.4bn) of Russian central bank assets after the country launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In order to use the assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort, the European Commission, the EU’s executive, has floated a complex financial manoeuvre that involves the EU borrowing matured funds from Euroclear.
That money would then, in turn, be loaned to Ukraine, on the understanding that Kyiv would only repay the loan if Russia pays reparations.
The scheme would be “fully guaranteed” by the EU’s 27 member states – who would have to ensure repayment themselves to Euroclear if they eventually decided Russia could reclaim the assets without paying reparations. Belgium, the home of Euroclear, objected to this plan on Thursday, with Prime Minister Bart De Wever calling its legality into question.
Russia has described the idea as an illegal seizure of property and warned of retaliation.
Following Thursday’s political wrangling, a text approved by all the leaders – except Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban – was watered down from previous drafts to call for “options for financial support based on an assessment of Ukraine’s financing needs.” Those options will be presented to European leaders at their next summit in December.
“Russia’s assets should remain immobilised until Russia ceases its war of aggression against Ukraine and compensates it for the damage caused by its war,” the declaration added.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a guest at the summit, had urged a quick passage of the plan for the loan.
“Anyone who delays the decision on the full use of frozen Russian assets is not only limiting our defence, but also slowing down the EU’s own progress,” he told the EU leaders, saying Kyiv would use a significant part of the funds to buy European weapons.
Earlier, the EU adopted a new round of sweeping sanctions against Russian energy exports on Thursday, as well, banning liquefied natural gas imports.
The move followed United States President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that Russia’s two biggest oil companies would face US sanctions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday struck a defiant tone over the sanctions, saying they were an “unfriendly act”, and that Russia would not bend under pressure.
United States President Donald Trump sanctions Russia’s two biggest oil companies – after scrapping a summit with President Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine war.
The European Union has also announced new measures targeting Russian oil and assets.
Will they bring an end to the war any closer?
Presenter: Bernard Smith
Guests:
Anatol Lieven – Director of the Eurasia programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Steven Erlanger – Chief Diplomatic Correspondent for Europe at The New York Times
Chris Weafer – CEO of Macro-Advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on Russia and Eurasia
Changpeng Zhao, founder of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has been pardoned by US President Donald Trump.
Zhao, also known as “CZ”, was sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024 after pleading guilty to violating US money laundering laws.
Binance also pleaded guilty and was ordered to pay $4.3bn (£3.4bn) after a US investigation found it helped users bypass sanctions.
The pardon reignited debate over the White House embrace of cryptocurrency as the Trump family’s own investments in the industry have deepened.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called Zhao’s prosecution under the Biden administration part of a “war on cryptocurrency”, pushing back on critics who said the pardon appeared motivated by Trump’s personal financial interests.
“This was an overly prosecuted case by the Biden administration,” she said, adding that the case had been “thoroughly reviewed”. “So the president wants to correct this overreach of the Biden administration’s misjustice and he exercised his constitutional authority to do so.”
Binance had spent nearly a year pursuing a pardon for its former boss, who completed his four-month prison sentence in September 2024, the WSJ reported on Thursday.
Its campaign came as Trump, who released his own coin shortly ahead of his inauguration in January, promised to take a friendlier approach to the industry than his predecessor.
Since then, he has loosened regulations, sought to establish a national cryptocurrency reserve and pushed to make it easier for Americans to use retirement savings to invest in digital assets.
Zhao, who stepped down as Binance chief executive in 2023, wrote on social media on Thursday that he was “deeply grateful for today’s pardon and to President Trump for upholding America’s commitment to fairness, innovation, and justice”.
The pardon lifts restrictions that had stopped Zhao from running financial ventures, but it’s not yet clear whether it changes his standing with US regulators or his ability to lead Binance directly.
In a statement Binance called the decision “incredible news”.
The exchange, which is registered in the Cayman Islands, remains the world’s most popular platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.
It did not respond to further questions about the conflict of interest claims.
Before the pardon, Zhao’s companies had partnered with firms linked to Donald Trump on new digital-currency projects including Dominari Holdings, where his sons sit on the board of advisers and which is based in Trump Tower.
The Wall Street Journal also previously reported representatives of the Trump family – which has its own crypto firm World Liberty Financial – had recently held talks with Binance.
The Trump administration previously halted a fraud case against crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun, after his investments in the Trump family’s crypto firm, World Liberty Financial.
He has also pardoned founders of the crypto exchange BitMex, who also faced charges related to money laundering, and Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road, the dark web marketplace known as a place for drug trade.
Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale wrote on social media that he loved Trump but the president had been “terribly advised” on pardons.
“It makes it look like massive fraud is happening around him in this area,” he said.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, blasted the decision in a statement as a “kind of corruption”.
Asked about the decision to pardon Zhao on Thursday, Trump appeared not to not know who he was.
“Are you talking about the crypto person?” he asked, later saying he had granted the pardon at the “request of a lot of good people”.
When US officials announced the Binance guilty plea in 2023, they said Binance and Zhao were responsible for “wilful violations” of US laws, which had threatened the financial system and national security.
“Binance turned a blind eye to its legal obligations in the pursuit of profit,” said then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
“Its wilful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cybercriminals, and child abusers through its platform.”
Zhao stepped down as Binance chief executive as part of the resolution of the case, writing at the time that resigning was “the right thing to do”.
“I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility,” he said.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
This week, we are getting our first visual evidence of Russia’s notorious glide bomb kit capability combined with a small turbojet engine, a modification that provides this class of munition with a significant boost in range. The latest version of the weapon is reportedly designated UMPK-PD, in which the “P” suffix very likely denotes Dalniaya, for long-range, although other sources describe a similar weapon as the UMPB-5R. Regardless, they look set to become another problem for Ukraine’s air defenses… if they work as advertised.
A rear view of one of the new Russian glide bombs, which can be adapted with a motor. via XThe bomb warhead of the same Russian glide bomb. via X
At least some of the photos of the wreckage of the glide bombs, posted recently to social media, appear to show the remains of the turbojet engine among the other components. The first such photos were apparently initially shared on a Ukrainian Telegram channel, Polkovnik GSh, and are said to date from the late spring or early summer of this year.
The remains of a Russian UMPK glide bomb, apparently equipped with a turbojet engine, shared by the Ukrainian Telegram channel Polkovnik GSh. via XA Chinese-made Swiwin SW800Pro-Y turbojet engine among the wreckage of one of the new glide bombs. via XThe UMPB-5R inscription from the same set of wreckage as the turbojet engine. via X
Meanwhile, reports in the Ukrainian media describe the use of such munitions against targets in the Kharkiv region, specifically the town of Lozovaya, around 56 miles from the front line, and in the Sumy region, where the reported target was the village of Khoten, 6.2 miles from the front line.
Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), has said that a new Russian glide bomb (presumably the UMPK-PD or UMPB-5R) was combat-tested in September/October and is now entering series production. He has said the weapons include “new control modules” and superior resistance to electronic countermeasures.
HUR’s Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said Russia combat tested a new guided bomb w/ ≤200km range in September-October and is now moving to mass production. He indicated it’s been used in Dnipro & other cities in recent weeks. He said the bombs have “new control modules” and… https://t.co/pOQBIYQ6CGpic.twitter.com/2PGroELTGQ
There have long been rumors that the Russian UMPK, or Unifitsirovannyi Modul Planirovaniya i Korrektsii, meaning unified gliding and correction module, glide bombs had started to be adapted to accommodate propulsion. This would be in keeping with the steady improvements that have been made to this series of weapons, which have included using new types of warheads as well as increasingly larger payloads.
One of the first photos that appeared showing the original 500-kilogram-class UMPK glide bomb in detail. via X
A recent report from the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant states that the latest version of the UMPK can strike targets at ranges of up to 62 miles, thanks to various aerodynamic improvements. This range is said to be achieved when released at an altitude of around 40,000 feet and at a speed of around 621 miles per hour. The range would be correspondingly reduced when launched at lower altitudes and lower speeds.
Meanwhile, the same weapon fitted with a motor reportedly doubles that baseline range, to 124 miles, comparable with a standoff weapon like a shorter-range cruise missile. While all these range figures should be treated with caution, anywhere near these range figures would provide an impressive leap in capability over the weapon’s unpowered counterpart.
Debris from another glide bomb, the UMPB-5R equipped with a Swiwin SW800Pro-Y turbojet engine, which can also be fitted to the new UMPK.
Publicly available data attributes the original UMPK weapons with a range of between 25 and 45 miles when strapped to a FAB-250, FAB-500, or FAB-1500 bomb. A range of between 31 and 37 miles can be achieved when using the heavier FAB-3000 bomb.
In its baseline form, the aerodynamic improvements for the UMPK-PD include a pair of wings, replacing the single pop-out wing that was originally used in the glide bomb kits. These provide increased area and, therefore, generate more lift for sustained flight.
The ‘twin-wing’ configuration is something that has been seen in use for some time now, but the motor wasn’t visible. That apparent anomaly now makes much more sense, given that versions of the UMPK-PD can be employed with or without the range-extending engine.
#RussiaUkraineWar 🇷🇺”The first case of using a guided aerial bomb on the city of Lozova, in the Kharkiv region” — Ukrainian prosecution A preliminary strike was carried out with a new modification of the KAB — UMPB-5R (rocket type), which traveled a distance of approximately 130… pic.twitter.com/AhffYzJFzA
Otherwise, the baseline UMPK-PD is also fitted with redesigned tail fins, guidance and control unit, and a power source, all of which are bolted to a standard free-fall bomb.
The bombs are typically released by Su-34 aircraft. A tandem 2-section wing with a folding main (front) section and a fixed tail section apparently gives extra lift. Jamming of the satellite navigation system is difficult to achieve due to use of multi-element antenna arrays . 2/ https://t.co/78DaoweYOfpic.twitter.com/Zgb8DrbhRw
When fitted with a jet engine, for maximum reach, the twin wings are reportedly of smaller size and are swept back. As for the engine, photos of the wreckage indicate this is a Chinese-made Swiwin SW800Pro-Y turbojet, which is commercially available and generates around 180 pounds of thrust. Russia’s ability to source large numbers of small turbojets domestically has been questioned in the past, so getting them from China off-the-shelf would certainly make sense.
A close-up of the Swiwin SW800Pro-Y turbojet engine. via X
The Kommersant report states that the powered UMPK-PD is now being combat-tested in prototype form, which means there may not yet be a standardized format for this version, with the potential for changes to be made based on early operational experience.
According to a report on Telegram from the pro-Russian military Fighterbomber channel, the specific bomb used as ‘payload’ for the UMPK-PD is the FAB-500T, a 500-kilogram (1,102-pound) class weapon. It is claimed that the specific properties of the FAB-500T, which include a more aerodynamic body and heat-resistant features, make it more suitable for powered, long-range flight.
Interestingly, the FAB-500T was originally developed during the Cold War for carriage by the MiG-25RB Foxbat reconnaissance-bomber. In this case, the letter “T” stands for Termostoykaya (thermally stable), since it was designed to withstand in-flight heating at the MiG-25RB’s cruising speed of 2,500km/h (1,553mph) at high altitude. It’s unclear how many FAB-500Ts remain in the Russian stockpile, but presumably other FAB-series bombs could also be adapted for use with the UMPK-PD, too.
A UMPK combined with a FAB-500T under the wing of a Russian tactical jet. via X via X
The UMPK-PD reportedly also features a new launch procedure, in which a combination of a spring mechanism and a pyrotechnic serves to deploy the wings after release from the aircraft. The various control surfaces are then adjusted to direct the munition toward the target.
This is very likely intended to overcome previously reported problems with the standard UMPK series.
As we wrote back in 2023, quoting an online critical analysis of the UMPK module, conducted anonymously by an employee of a Russian company:
The wing is opened after the bomb is dropped by a spring hooked to the locking mechanism. The wing opening mechanism is unreliable, and “the fact that the wing is not brought into flight position is a standard occurrence for this product.”
Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies (CAST), a Moscow-based think tank, told Kommersant that the UMPK-PD is an “excellent, but probably temporary solution” to the problem of a lack of more purpose-designed precision-guided munitions to support the Russian ground forces. Pukhov noted that the UMPK-PD would help compensate for a lack of longer-range precision-guided munitions and even cruise missiles, but that it wouldn’t offer the same level of accuracy or destructive power.
Nevertheless, the UMPK-PD is another major headache for the hard-pressed Ukrainian air defenses.
Since their first employment in the war in Ukraine, the Russian glide bombs have proved to be extremely difficult to shoot down, being small in size, relatively fast, and with no thermal signature.
They have also been continually improved.
Meanwhile, Russia introduced another new standoff weapon last year, a winged precision-guided bomb known as the UMPB D-30SN, or simply UMPB. As we discussed at the time, this munition has some interesting parallels to the U.S.-made Small Diameter Bomb (SDB).
Undated photo (possibly recent), posted on the Aviahub TG channel earlier today, that clearly shows a pair of UMPB D-30SN glide weapons under the port wing of a VKS Su-34 strike fighter. pic.twitter.com/L5iPpor7Rq
As for the UMPK-PD, this can meanwhile be compared to a much cruder counterpart to the powered version of the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER). The Powered JDAM essentially combines a JDAM-ER winged precision-guided bomb with a small turbine engine, creating something like a lower-cost cruise missile.
A mock-up of the Powered JDAM with its pop-out wings in the deployed position. Joseph Trevithick
As we have noted in the past, Russia has a limited air-launched standoff precision-guided munitions arsenal, overall, so being able to convert dumb bombs into longer-range guided weapons is of significant utility. The result is a series of weapons that allow the Russian Aerospace Forces to strike deeper in certain areas, as well as to conduct more survivable weapons deliveries in others.
Due to the crash program to develop these kinds of bombs, the earlier versions suffered from several shortcomings. However, with the Russian Aerospace Forces’ huge demand for weapons that can be launched at a safer distance from air defenses, and the tempo of airstrikes in general, the continued appearance of more refined versions of these weapons, including with longer range, is no surprise.
Russia, the second largest oil exporter globally, is considering its response to U. S. sanctions targeting major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, amid the possibility of reduced sales to India, its largest buyer. President Vladimir Putin has been in talks with U. S. President Donald Trump for months about finding a resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine, but no progress has been made yet.
On October 22, the U. S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, urging Russia to agree to a ceasefire. Together, these two companies represent about half of Russia’s oil production and over 5% of the global oil supply. Earlier in January, sanctions were enacted against other Russian energy firms, but these did not severely disrupt Russian oil exports. The U. S. has also targeted the vessels and companies involved in transporting Russian oil, with some lawmakers calling for stricter measures.
Indian refiners, such as Reliance Industries, are reportedly looking to reduce or stop importing Russian oil due to increasing U. S. pressure. India purchased 1.9 million barrels per day in the first nine months of 2025, making up 40% of Russia’s total oil exports. Stricter sanctions may force Russia to offer larger discounts to maintain export levels, as oil and gas revenues are crucial for its budget and military efforts in Ukraine.
While halting crude exports is an option for Russia, it could also harm its allies, including China. Other choices include cutting exports of enriched uranium or rare metals, although these would also negatively impact Russia’s economy. Strengthening ties with China for rare-earth cooperation could counter U. S. pressures, given Russia’s substantial reserves.
Russia is a key member of OPEC+, which manages about half of global oil production, and any disruption to its exports could affect the organization’s market strategies. China, another significant buyer of Russian crude, reaffirmed its opposition to unilateral sanctions following the recent U. S. restrictions against Rosneft and Lukoil.
The body of a Thai farm worker killed in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack was returned home to Thailand. Sonthaya Oakkharasri’s body had been held in the Gaza Strip. Thai officials say 45 nationals have died in the conflict — the highest foreign toll among Israel’s foreign workers.
China bets big on advanced technology in its five-year plan to revive the economy.
For decades, China powered spectacular growth through exports, infrastructure and cheap credit. But that old model is running out of steam, even as it hits a record trade surplus with the world this year.
The property sector is drowning in debt, confidence is fading, and consumers are holding back. Now, Beijing faces its toughest test yet: how to keep the world’s second-largest economy growing without relying much on the engines that once drove it.
A new five-year plan promises “high-quality growth” built on technology and self-reliance. But trade tensions with the United States could make the climb even steeper.
Mark Poynting,Climate and science reporter, BBC News and
Jonah Fisher,Environment correspondent
PA Media
England’s water companies have been ordered to refund more than £260m to their customers for poor performance.
The economic regulator Ofwat says 40% of that money has already been taken off this year’s bills, with the rest to come off next year’s. But bills are still due to rise steeply until 2030 to fund upgrades to the water system.
Earlier today, the Environment Agency gave England’s water companies their worst ever combined marks in its annual rating system for their environmental performance in 2024, amid a spike in serious pollution incidents.
Industry body Water UK acknowledged that “the performance of some companies is not good enough” but pointed to investment since last year.
Thames Water – the UK’s largest water company – has been penalised the most by Ofwat at £75.2m.
It was also given the lowest, one-star rating by the EA.
A spokesperson for the company said: “Transforming Thames is a major programme of work that will take time; it will take at least a decade to achieve the scale of change required.”
And Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds acknowledged: “We are facing a water system failure that has left our infrastructure crumbling and sewage spilling into our rivers.
“We are taking decisive action to fix it, including new powers to ban unfair bonuses, and swift financial penalties for environmental offences,” she added.
England’s water companies got their worst ever combined score for environmental performance in 2024, the Environment Agency has said.
The EA gave all but one of the nine English water and sewerage companies two stars – “requiring improvement” – or worse in the case of Thames.
Only Severn Trent got the top rating of four stars.
In a foreword to the report, the EA’s chair, Alan Lovell, wrote: “Many companies tell us how focussed they are on environmental improvement. But the results are not visible in the data.”
The EA’s collective rating of the nine companies for 2024 was 19 stars – down from 25 stars in 2023. No year had previously got fewer than 22 stars.
How does your water company rank for environmental performance?
“We know we need to further improve for our customers, communities and the environment, and that is why we have embarked on the largest ever investment programme, delivering the biggest upgrade to our network in 150 years,” the Thames spokesperson added.
Every year since 2011 each of England’s nine water companies have been given a rating for their environmental performance. Only seven one-star ratings have ever been previously given.
The EA says its assessment criteria has been tightened over time, so its ratings do “not mean performance has declined since 2011” and it had seen “some improvement” up to 2023.
“This year’s results are poor and must serve as a clear and urgent signal for change,” said Mr Lovell.
In its report on companies in England and Wales, Ofwat described performance across different measures as “mixed”.
It acknowledged progress in some areas like internal sewer flooding, but said “there remain areas where companies and the sector must do more”, including pollution and supply interruptions for some.
In response, James Wallace, chief executive of campaign group River Action UK, said: “Today’s report shows that water companies in England and Wales are still underperforming, especially on serious pollution incidents, exposing the bankruptcy of the privatised water model.
“We urgently need a complete overhaul of this failed system to ensure that bill payers receive a fair service and that our rivers are properly protected from pollution.”
The EA attributed last year’s environmental performance to three factors – wet and stormy weather, long-standing underinvestment in infrastructure, and increased monitoring and inspection “bringing more failings to light”.
From 2027, the EA will replace its current star ratings with a new system – a scale from one to five, from “failing” to “excellent”.
The government argues this will give a more accurate reflection of performance, with companies not able to achieve the top rating unless they “achieve the highest standards across the board”.
Getty Images
The water industry has faced mounting anger from customers and campaigners for rising bills and repeated sewage spills.
And in April, bills rose by an average of 26% in England and Wales, after the economic regulator Ofwat approved water company plans for billions of pounds of investment.
Bills will continue to rise to 2030 to help upgrade water supplies and reducing the amount of sewage being spilled.
Earlier this year the government said that Ofwat would be scrapped and replaced by a single regulator.
In response to today’s EA’s report, Mike Keil, chief executive of the Consumer Council for Water, said: “Customers are now paying more than ever before through water bills and they will expect to see companies delivering on their promises to cut pollution and help bring rivers, lakes and wildlife habitats back to life.
“If the industry fails to deliver, the damage to public trust – which is already at an all-time low – may be unrecoverable,” he added.
U. S. Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that President Donald Trump would oppose any efforts by Israel to annex the occupied West Bank, describing recent actions by Israeli lawmakers as a “political stunt. ” A bill that would apply Israeli law to the West Bank, essentially annexing it, received preliminary approval from Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday, sparking concern among U. S. officials. Vance criticized the bill, noting that if it was a political move, it was a misguided one. He reinforced that President Trump’s policy is to prevent annexation of the West Bank.
The bill, led by a far-right opposition lawmaker, passed with a close vote of 25-24 among 120 lawmakers. It was supported by ultranationalist members of the government, but Netanyahu’s office called it a “deliberate political provocation” and emphasized that without support from Netanyahu’s Likud party, the bill was unlikely to succeed. U. S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that any annexation could jeopardize Trump’s efforts to end the ongoing Gaza conflict, which is currently under a fragile ceasefire.
The U. S. has been a strong ally of Israel, and during Vance’s visit to Israel, there were discussions on maintaining the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The $20-point Gaza plan proposed by Trump focuses on rebuilding Gaza and potentially addressing Palestinian statehood. Vance expressed optimism about the ceasefire, despite ongoing tensions and accusations of violations from both sides.
The issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank continues to be contentious, with the U. N. and various countries considering these settlements illegal. The Israeli government maintains historical claims to the territory and adamantly opposes Palestinian statehood. The recent vote is seen as part of a larger pattern of political maneuvering related to regional diplomacy, with mixed international reactions.
In comments that reflect this tension, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich suggested that if normalization with Saudi Arabia depends on the creation of a Palestinian state, Israel should reject such an offer outright. Meanwhile, reactions to the bill included condemnation from several Muslim-majority countries and organizations.
Omar Rahman talks about the mixed messaging coming from the White House over the Gaza ceasefire.
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, talks about the mixed messaging coming from the White House over the Gaza ceasefire.
Washington has announced new sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in an effort to pressure Moscow to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine. This marks the first time the current Trump administration has imposed direct sanctions on Russia.
Speaking alongside Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said he hoped the sanctions would not need to be in place for long, but expressed growing frustration with stalled truce negotiations.
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“Every time I speak to Vladimir [Putin], I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere,” Trump said, shortly after a planned in-person meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Budapest was cancelled.
Trump’s move is designed to cut off vital oil revenues, which help fund Russia’s ongoing war efforts. Earlier on Wednesday, Russia unleashed a new bombardment on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, killing at least seven people, including children.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the new sanctions were necessary because of “Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war”. He said that Rosneft and Lukoil fund the Kremlin’s “war machine”.
A Lukoil petrol station in Sofia, Bulgaria, on October 23, 2025 [Stoyan Nenov/Reuters]
How have Rosneft and Lukoil been sanctioned?
The new measures will freeze assets owned by Rosneft and Lukoil in the US, and bar US entities from engaging in business with them. Thirty subsidiaries owned by Rosneft and Lukoil have also been sanctioned.
Rosneft, which is controlled by the Kremlin, is Russia’s second-largest company in terms of revenue, behind natural gas giant Gazprom. Lukoil is Russia’s third-largest company and its biggest non-state enterprise.
Between them, the two groups export 3.1 million barrels of oil per day, or 70 percent of Russia’s overseas crude oil sales. Rosneft alone is responsible for nearly half of Russia’s oil production, which in all makes up 6 percent of global output.
In recent years, both companies have been hit by rolling European sanctions and reduced oil prices. In September, Rosneft reported a 68 percent year-on-year drop in net income for the first half of 2025. Lukoil posted an almost 27 percent fall in profits for 2024.
Meanwhile, last week, the United Kingdom unveiled sanctions on the two oil majors. Elsewhere, the European Union looks set to announce its 19th package of penalties on Moscow later today, including a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas.
How much impact will these sanctions have?
In 2022, Russian oil groups (including Rosneft and Lukoil) were able to offset some of the effects of sanctions by pivoting exports from Europe to Asia, and also using a “shadow fleet” of hard-to-detect tankers with no ties to Western financial or insurance groups.
China and India quickly replaced the EU as Russia’s biggest oil consumers. Last year, China imported a record 109 million tonnes of Russian crude, representing almost 20 percent of its total energy imports. India imported 88 million tonnes of Russian oil in 2024.
In both cases, these are orders of magnitude higher than before 2022, when Western countries started to tighten their sanctions regime on Russia. At the end of 2021, China imported roughly 79.6 million tonnes of Russian crude. India imported just 0.42 million tonnes.
Trump has repeatedly urged Beijing and New Delhi to halt Russian energy purchases. In August, he levied an additional 25 percent trade tariff on India because of its continued purchase of discounted Russian oil. He has so far demurred from a similar move against China.
However, Trump’s new sanctions are likely to place pressure on foreign financial groups which do business with Rosneft and Lukoil, including the banking intermediaries which facilitate sales of Russian oil in China and India.
“Engaging in certain transactions involving the persons designated today may risk the imposition of secondary sanctions on participating foreign financial institutions,” the US Treasury Department’s press release on Wednesday’s sanctions says.
As a result, the new restrictions may force buyers to shift to alternative suppliers or pay higher prices. Though India and China may not be the direct targets of these latest restrictions, their oil supply chains and trading costs are likely to come under increased pressure.
“The big thing here is the secondary sanctions,” Felipe Pohlmann Gonzaga, a Switzerland-based commodity trader, told Al Jazeera. “Any bank that facilitates Russian oil sales and with exposure to the US financial system could be subject.”
However, he added, “I don’t think this will be the driver in ending the war, as Russia will continue selling oil. There are always people out there willing to take the risk to beat sanctions.
“These latest restrictions will make Chinese and Indian players more reluctant to buy Russian oil – many won’t want to lose access to the American financial system. [But] it won’t stop it completely.”
According to Bloomberg, several senior refinery executives in India – who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue – said the restrictions would make it impossible for oil purchases to continue.
On Wednesday, Trump said that he would raise concerns about China’s continued purchases of Russian oil during his talk with President Xi Jinping at the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea next week.
Rosneft’s Russian-flagged crude oil tanker Vladimir Monomakh transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkiye, on July 6, 2023 [Yoruk Isik/Reuters]
Have oil prices been affected?
Oil prices rallied after Trump announced US sanctions. Brent – the international crude oil benchmark – rose nearly 4 percent to $65 a barrel on Thursday. The US Benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, jumped more than 5 percent to nearly $60 per barrel.
Pohlmann Gonzaga, however, predicted that the “market will correct from this 5 percent over-jump. You have to recall that sentiment in energy markets is still negative due to the gloomy [global] economic backdrop.”
A Russian drone has killed two Ukrainian journalists and wounded another in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, according to their outlet and the regional governor of the Donetsk region.
Freedom Media, a state-funded news organisation, said on Thursday that Olena Gramova, 43, and Yevgen Karmazin, 33, had been killed by a Russian Lancet drone while in their car at a petrol station in the industrial city. Another reporter, Alexander Kolychev, was hospitalised after the attack.
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The Donetsk regional governor earlier announced details of the strike and posted images showing the charred remains of the journalists’ car, according to the AFP news agency.
Freedom Media said that Gramova, a native of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk region, had originally trained as a “finance specialist”, but turned to journalism in 2014, the year when Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, and started arming a separatist movement in Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas.
Karmazin was born in Kramatorsk, also in Donetsk. The outlet said he “joined Ukraine’s international broadcasting channels as a cameraman in 2021”.
“From day one, they were there, covering evacuations, war crimes, soldier stories,” said the Kyiv Post in a post on X.
A Russian Lancet drone tore through Kramatorsk, killing Ukrainian journalist Olena Hubanova and cameraman Yevhen Karmazin as they documented the war from the front lines.
From day one, they were there — covering evacuations, war crimes, soldier stories.
Kramatorsk, which had a pre-war population of about 150,000 people, is one of the few remaining civilian hubs in the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control.
Russian forces are approximately 16 kilometres (10 miles) from the city, where officials earlier this month announced the mandatory evacuation of children from some parts of the town and outlying villages.
Record numbers of journalists killed in conflict
The proliferation of cheap but deadly drones used both by Russian and Ukrainian forces has made reporting from the front-line regions of Ukraine increasingly dangerous.
Earlier in October, French photojournalist Antoni Lallican was killed by a drone near the eastern city of Druzhkivka, located in the Donetsk region.
Lallican had been killed by a “targeted strike” from a first-person-view drone, which allows operators to see their target before striking, according to Ukrainian forces cited by the European Federation of Journalists.
Precise tolls of journalists killed since the war started in 2022 vary. The Committee for the Protection of Journalists says that 17 journalists – Ukrainian and international – have been killed so far. The deaths of Gramova and Karmazin would bring that total to 19.
UNESCO said earlier this month that at least 23 media workers have been killed on both sides of the front line, including three Russian state media journalists in March. In mid-October, Russian war correspondent Ivan Zuyev was killed by a Ukrainian drone strike in the southern Zaporizhia region, according to state news agency RIA.
Recent years have seen record numbers of journalists killed in conflicts, the toll disproportionately accelerated by deaths in Gaza, where Israeli forces have deliberately targeted media workers like Al Jazeera’s Anas al-Sharif and Mohammad Salama, Reuters cameraman Hussam al-Masri, and Mariam Abu Daqqa, a freelance journalist working for AP.
Again, reports on deaths since the start of the two-year Gaza war differ. The United Nations said that 242 journalists had been killed by August this year. A tally by Shireen.ps, a monitoring website named after murdered Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, said Israeli forces had killed more than 270 journalists and media workers over the same period.
Either way, more journalists have been killed in Gaza than in the United States Civil War, both World Wars, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia and the post-9/11 war in Afghanistan combined, according to Brown University’s Costs of War project.
Littler closed the gap on Humphries when he won the World Grand Prix earlier this month, saying afterwards: “Obviously, until I get that world number one spot, I will never call myself the best in the world.
“I don’t want to think about it too much, but I could be world number one before that World Championship.
“I’ve just got to keep chucking away and put as much pressure as I can on Luke.”
Littler begins his European Championship campaign against five-time world champion Raymond van Barneveld, 58, on Friday.
Humphries, 30, faces Pole Krzysztof Ratajski in the first round and could potentially meet Littler in the quarter-finals.
A day after his Grand Prix victory, Littler was beaten in the World Youth Championship semi-finals by Beau Greaves, before he then won the Players Championship 32 event.
He has also announced a new management deal with Target Darts after splitting with Martin Foulds of ZXF Sports Management, who had managed him for five years.
Littler will hope to improve his recent record in Germany, where he has skipped some tournaments after facing a hostile reception from spectators. He was booed alongside Humphries when the pair lost to Germany at the World Cup of Darts in Frankfurt in June.
After the European Championship, there are two big tournaments before the World Championship starts on 11 December – the Grand Slam of Darts (8-16 November) and Players Championship Finals (21-23 November).
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Germany is offering for Canada to join its Type 212CD submarine program, alongside Norway, as part of a broader defense cooperation that would more closely align Berlin and Ottawa. Canada badly needs a replacement for its aging and troublesome Victoria class diesel-electric submarines, and, in turn, Germany is looking to procure potentially significant numbers of special-mission aircraft from Canada’s Bombardier, among other defense systems.
The German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, and his Norwegian counterpart, Tore Sandvik, were in Ottawa this week, where they presented the Type 212CD to the Minister of National Defense of Canada, David McGuinty, for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).
A rendering of the forthcoming Type 212CD submarine. TKMS TKMS
Canada’s requirement is for up to 12 new submarines to replace the four Victoria class boats. The new submarines should offer significant new capabilities, including operating for extended periods under ice, an important factor to bear in mind given the growing military importance of the Arctic region.
HMCS Victoria, the first of the four Victoria class submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy. U.S. Navy
The German-Norwegian offer is for the Type 212CD (Common Design), which is a further improved version of the Type 212A, which you can read about in more detail here. The Type 212CD features an improved air-independent propulsion (AIP) system including new-generation batteries (most likely of the Lithium-Ion type), improved diesel generators, increased speed and range, improved self-defense capabilities, and improved signatures and target echo strength thanks to a specially designed hull shape.
A German Navy Type 212A submarine, from which the new Type 212CD is derived. TKMS ThyssenKrupp
Germany has ordered six Type 212CD hulls, with the first of these set to enter service in 2031 and ultimately plans to field as many as nine. Meanwhile, Norway has ordered four, with at least another two planned. Oslo expects to commission the first of these boats in 2029.
The manufacturer of the Type 212CD, TKMS, says it will be able to build around three to four boats per year from 2027.
The Canadian government wants to see the delivery of the first new submarine no later than 2035.
The Victoria class submarines currently in use with the Royal Canadian Navy were purchased secondhand from the United Kingdom in 1998, having previously served with the Royal Navy as the Upholder class, and have been anything but trouble-free since their transfer. The first three Victoria class submarines entered service with the Royal Canadian Navy between 2000 and 2003. The fourth submarine caught fire while in transit to Canada in 2004, which meant it wasn’t accepted into Royal Canadian Navy service until 2015.
HMCS Corner Brook, one of the four Victoria class boats, pulls into Submarine Base New London, Connecticut, for a 2009 port visit. U.S. Navy
In an effort to boost the Type 212CD’s chances in Canada, Germany is offering Ottawa the opportunity to manufacture components, or even undertake construction of complete submarines, in local shipyards.
While in Canada, Pistorius outlined the possibility of a long-term submarine cooperation between the three countries, which could extend for 40 to 50 years. This would see them jointly build and maintain the submarines, as well as providing logistics and working on projects to develop the boats further. Pistorius also raised the possibility of crew exchanges and even joint operations in the Indo-Pacific region. Having Canada join the initiative would also bring down the unit cost of each submarine as the overall production increases significantly.
Boris Pistorius (right), the German Federal Minister of Defense, and Tore Sandvik, Minister of Defense of Norway, arrive for a press conference on the submarine project in Ottawa yesterday. Photo by Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images picture alliance
In turn, the German minister of defense raised the possibility of Berlin buying Canadian defense systems, as part of planned offsets on a submarine deal.
Items mentioned include a new combat management system (CMS) for the German Navy. This would likely be the CMS 330 from Lockheed Martin Canada, which was originally developed for the Royal Canadian Navy.
More intriguingly, Pistorius said that the German Armed Forces are likely to buy at least 18 Bombardier Global bizjets in the coming years. These would be for special missions tasks and likely also VIP transport, although the large number of jets remains somewhat puzzling. The German minister of defense also suggested that more bizjets could be acquired from Bombardier if Germany chooses to buy the GlobalEye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft from Saab. This is installed on a Global 6000/6500 platform. Saab has also actively pitched the GlobalEye to Canada.
A pair of Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft. Saab Saab
Other military areas in which the German government might ‘buy Canadian’ include space systems, as part of a growing investment on behalf of the German Ministry of Defense.
On a non-military level, Pistorius also said that Germany is seeking to enhance its cooperation with Canada on raw materials, hydro energy, and liquefied natural gas. This is all the more important now that Canada-U.S. relations are at an unprecedented low.
Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Canada have “natural conflict” on trade. This is all part of the fallout from events this summer, when Trump increased tariffs on many Canadian goods to 35 percent, with Canada then retaliating with its own tariffs on U.S. exports.
President Trump and I know that there are areas where our nations can compete — and areas where we will be stronger together.
Meanwhile, as part of the submarine proposal, Norway’s Sandvik also pitched offsets to Canada, including buying its AI solutions. The Norwegian minister of defense also offered to help Canada establish a submarine maintenance center, the same as that now under construction in Bergen, Norway.
In August of this year, the Canadian submarine competition was whittled down to the Type 212CD and the South Korean KSS-III, from the Hanwha Group. Seoul is also offering offsets to Canada, as well as promising fast delivery of the submarines.
The KSS-III submarine ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho during trials. Defense Acquisition Program Administration
“The Koreans build excellent submarines, but we build better ones,” Pistorius said, noting that the Type 212CD project is on schedule and within budget.
South Korea is an increasingly major player on the global arms market, and its defense industry is winning ever more high-profile orders, notably to NATO nations.
On the other hand, with Germany and Norway comes the opportunity for cooperation on a military level as well as on an industrial level.
Already, it’s expected that Germany and Norway will work closely together as they introduced their Type 212CD submarines. This is especially relevant now that Germany is looking to expand its area of naval operations from its traditional stronghold in the Baltic Sea and out into the Atlantic.
This will include protecting the North Atlantic against potential Russian aggression and tracking Russian submarine activity there, which has been a growing area of concern for some time now. This marks a significant turnaround since the early post-Cold War years, when Russian submarine activity dipped and the overall strategic importance of the North Atlantic region seemed to have decreased.
The Russian Yasen-M class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Kazan at its base in the Northern Fleet in May 2021. Ministry of Defense of Russia
Reflecting the changing reality, in 2024, Canada signed a trilateral letter of intent with Germany and Norway to establish a strategic partnership in support of NATO’s deterrence and defense in the North Atlantic region, specifically.
However, when the letter of intent was announced, Ottawa underscored the fact that it does not include any discussion of submarines. “The emphasis of this agreement is on defense industry, supply chains, training, and operations. It complements other initiatives that Canada is exploring with Germany and European allies,” the Canadian government said.
Concept art of the submerged SSN-AUKUS. U.K. Ministry of Defense
Meanwhile, other NATO nations are now more closely aligning their anti-submarine warfare activities in the North Atlantic region. For example, the United Kingdom and Norway have discussed plans to cooperate on P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operations, and, more recently, the United Kingdom and Germany have signed a related agreement related to their P-8s. Canada has also selected the P-8, providing yet another opportunity for close maritime cooperation with Germany and Norway.
A rendering of a P-8 maritime patrol aircraft in Canadian service. Boeing
A submarine partnership between Canada, Germany, and Norway would further enhance NATO’s ability to effectively patrol the North Atlantic, including the strategically vital Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom Gap, better known as the GIUK Gap. This is a critical bottleneck that is closely monitored. If Russian submarines can sneak through undetected, they have a much higher chance of disappearing into the Atlantic without being traced. During a full-blown conflict, this would likely include wreaking havoc on NATO shipping and naval flotillas and executing pinpoint attacks on key land targets.
A GIUK Gap map from the Cold War, but still very much relevant today. CIA.gov
As well as hostile submarines, NATO also faces a growing threat from other kinds of underwater activities, specifically attacks on critical undersea infrastructure. The vulnerability of undersea cables and offshore wind farms, for example, to potential Russian attack is very much on NATO’s mind, after a series of incidents, especially in the Baltic.
At the same time, NATO is increasingly looking toward the Arctic as an area of future competition with both Russia and China. This is especially relevant for Canada and Norway and the option to operate common submarines, and share something of the logistics burden, as well as optimize operations in this challenging environment, which could do much to help strengthen NATO’s presence in the High North. At the very least, operating the same submarines would provide more opportunities to align training and exercises. At the same time, Germany is now looking to expand its naval presence in the waters around the Arctic Circle, including expanding its footprint in Iceland.
Whether Canada chooses the Type 212CD or the rival KSS-III, the competition is about more than just providing an economic boost to the winning company. Canada’s future submarine fleet also looks set to play an important role in detecting a resurgent Russian submarine force, protecting undersea infrastructure, and patrolling an increasingly strategic Arctic region, among others.