Yemen

“We affirm that our fingers are on the trigger.” The Houthis have warned that they are ready for direct military intervention in the US-Israeli war on Iran, laying out the conditions that could prompt their involvement.

As the US-Israeli war against Iran drags on, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, have stayed out of the conflict.

But that could change. They have said they consider themselves directly concerned and could take a position alongside Iran.

The armed group has attacked Israel and shipping in the Red Sea in recent years. If a new front opens up, global trade could be further disrupted in another maritime gateway. Shipping is already largely halted in the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant losses worldwide.

So, will the Houthis join the war? And what difference could that make for this volatile region?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Farea al-Muslimi – research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House

Khaled Batarfi – political analyst who specialises in Saudi Arabian foreign policy

Rockford Weitz – director of the Fletcher Maritime Studies programme at Tufts University

Mukalla, Yemen – A reported decision to impose thousands of dollars in fees on shipping headed for Yemen has experts worried that the price of imported goods and food will increase in the war-torn country, as it starts to feel the economic impact of the United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran.

Local traders and officials have said that international shipping companies informed importers earlier this month of the imposition of new fees of about $3,000 on each container bound for Yemen, described as “war risk” fees. The surprise move prompted government officials to scramble to assess and address its potential repercussions.

Because Yemen imports nearly 90 percent of its food and other essential commodities, economists and humanitarian organisations warn that the rise in shipping and insurance costs could quickly translate into higher prices for fuel, food and other goods, further worsening an already dire humanitarian situation.

Mohsen al-Amri, transport minister in Yemen’s internationally-recognised government based in the southern city of Aden, said he had instructed that the fees not be paid by ships already docked at Yemeni ports or those bound for the country, insisting that the ports remain safe.

“Our ports are far from the areas of geopolitical tension in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, making the imposition of ‘risk’ fees on shipments to these relatively safe areas unjustified from both operational and security perspectives,” he said in a social media post last week.

Al Jazeera has reached out to shipping companies to confirm details of the fee, but has yet to receive responses.

For more than a decade, Yemen has been gripped by a bloody war between the Saudi-backed government, based in Aden, and the Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which controls the capital, Sanaa. The conflict has killed and wounded thousands of people and displaced millions, creating what the United Nations once described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Hostilities have significantly declined since April 2022, when the warring parties agreed to a temporary United Nations-brokered truce.

‘High-risk’

Abdulrab al-Khulaqui, deputy chairman of the Yemen Gulf of Aden Ports Corporation, said Yemeni ports have long been classified as high-risk, prompting shipping companies to impose war-risk surcharges. These can reach about $500 per each 20-foot container and $1,000 per each 40-foot container, on top of regular shipping costs.

Al-Khulaqui said that the $3,000 fee now being demanded was “very high and unusual”, but was justified by shipping companies because they regard Yemeni ports as unsafe, despite their distance from Iran.

Although the Houthis are allied to Iran and previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea following Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the Yemeni group has yet to intervene in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Other Yemeni parties are also not involved, making Yemen one of the few regional countries yet to see any violence related to the fighting.

In addition to barring local traders from paying the new charges, the Yemeni government is considering other measures to pressure shipping companies to cancel the fees, including threatening to stop vessels belonging to those companies from docking at Yemeni ports. Authorities may also allow traders to contact exporters directly in countries of origin to negotiate any additional charges.

The new surcharges come as the United Nations has again sounded the alarm over Yemen’s worsening humanitarian situation, saying nearly 65.4 percent of the population – about 23.1 million people – will require urgent humanitarian assistance and protection services this year. This marks an increase of roughly 3.5 million people compared with 2025.

“Yemen continues to face an escalating food security crisis entering 2026,” the World Food Program said in its February Yemen Food Security Update, released on March 5. “January data revealed that 63 percent of households nationwide are struggling to meet their minimum food needs, including 36 percent facing severe food deprivation.”

Bypassing Yemen’s ports

In addition to rising insurance fees on shipments to Yemen, the war in Iran and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could cut vital supply routes from regional hub ports such as Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates.

Mustafa Nasr, head of the Studies and Economic Media Center, told Al Jazeera that shipping companies may begin seeking alternative hub ports to deliver goods to Yemen, which could increase costs and cause delays.

“The closure of Jebel Ali port would force shipping lines to seek alternative ports that may be farther away and involve significantly higher transportation costs,” he said.

Nabil Abdullah Bin Aifan, manager of the government-run Maritime Affairs Authority in Hadramout province and a maritime researcher, said most goods arriving at Mukalla port – the province’s main seaport – are transported on wooden dhows from Dubai.

He said that if disruptions occur in the Strait of Hormuz, traders may turn to alternative regional hub ports such as Salalah in Oman or Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.

“Large ships come to Dubai to unload their containers, and traders then unload the goods from the containers and load them onto those primitive ships, which have no insurance,” Bin Aifan told Al Jazeera.

For now, wheat shipments from Ukraine and goods transported from China to Yemen may see price increases due to rising insurance costs, while products imported from Gulf countries could disappear from the market.

Shipping lines may also consider routing cargo through the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Gulf, Bin Aifan said.

“Even before the recent developments involving Iran, ports in our region were considered high risk. However, after the relative calm that followed the halt to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, confidence gradually returned and ships began sailing back to the region. Now, the war has brought the problem back again,” he said.

All of this means that Yemenis, already struggling with poverty and hunger after years of war, will likely have to pay more for imported food and goods.

Abdullah al-Hadad, an English teacher from the city of Taiz with 40 years of experience in the profession, said that his monthly salary – less than $80 – is already not enough to cover his basic needs. Meat and fish have become luxuries for his family, and he still owes nearly one million Yemeni riyals (about $670) to a local grocery shop.

To make ends meet, he works additional jobs as a taxi driver and in a grocery store, while his children also work after school to help support the family and pay for medication for his 10-year-old son, who has autism.

“What I suffer from as a government employee is the extremely low salary, which does not even cover basic necessities such as bread, tea, salt and sugar,” al-Hadad told Al Jazeera.

“Other foods that are essential for a healthy diet, like meat or fish, have become a distant dream.”

Tens of thousands of people have gathered around the world for al-Quds Day, an annual event on the final Friday of Ramadan demonstrating solidarity with Palestine and opposition to Israeli occupation.

Rallies took place across numerous countries, including Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia, Kashmir and Yemen. In Tehran, thousands marched, chanting “death to Israel” and “death to America” as the United States-Israeli military campaign entered its 14th day of conflict.

The event has long been associated with Iran, and was established by the country’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1979.

This year’s observance coincided with the US-Israel attack on Iran that has killed at least 1,444 people, including the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Crowds turned out in Tehran and other cities, despite ongoing US and Israeli strikes in the region during the commemoration, state media reported.

Demonstrators worldwide expressed solidarity with both Palestinians and Iranians. In Kashmir, protesters burned mock coffins bearing images of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while shouting slogans against the United States and Israel.

For the first time in 40 years, the United Kingdom banned London’s al-Quds Day march, citing risks of public disorder related to the “volatile situation in the Middle East” and potential confrontations between opposing groups. This marks the first protest ban since 2012, when authorities prohibited marches by the far-right English Defence League.

According to Iran’s Health Ministry, another 18,551 people have been injured in US-Israeli attacks on Iran since February 28.

The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a United States-Israeli air campaign has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, decapitating the leadership of the “axis of resistance” at its most critical moment.

For decades, this network of groups allied with Iran was Tehran’s forward line of defence. But today, with its commander-in-chief dead and its logistical arteries cut, the alliance looks less like a unified war machine and more like a series of isolated islands.

Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at the University of Tehran, warned that the era of strategic patience is over and the Iranian government is now prepared to “burn everything” in response to the attacks.

While Tehran promised to retaliate against the US and Israel “with a force they have never experienced before”, the reaction from its key proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq revealed a deep hesitation driven by local existential threats that may outweigh their ideological loyalty to a fallen leader.

Hezbollah: Walking between raindrops

In Beirut, the response from Hezbollah, long considered the crown jewel among Iran’s regional allies, has been cautiously calibrated.

After Sunday’s announcement of Khamenei’s death, the group issued a statement condemning the attack as the “height of criminality”. However, Al Jazeera correspondent in Beirut Mazen Ibrahim noted that the language used was defensive, not offensive.

“If one dismantles the linguistic structure of the statement, the complexity of Hezbollah’s position becomes clear,” Ibrahim said. “The secretary-general spoke of ‘confronting aggression’, which refers to a defensive posture. … He did not explicitly threaten to attack Israel or launch revenge operations.”

This caution is rooted in a new strategic reality. Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria in late 2024, the “land bridge” that supplied Hezbollah has been severed. Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher, noted that this loss “cut the ground link with Lebanon”, leaving the group physically isolated.

Now with top leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) killed alongside Khamenei, Hezbollah appears paralysed – caught between a battered domestic front in Lebanon and a vacuum of orders from Tehran.

The Houthis: Solidarity meets survival

In Yemen, the Houthis face an even more volatile calculus.

In his first televised address after the strikes on Iran began on Saturday, the group’s leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, declared his forces “fully prepared for any developments”. Yet his rhetoric notably emphasised that “Iran is strong” and “its response will be decisive,” a phrasing that analysts interpreted as an attempt to deflect the immediate burden of war away from the Houthis.

The Houthis are under immense pressure. While they have successfully disrupted Red Sea shipping and fired missiles at Tel Aviv, they now face a renewed threat at home.

The internationally recognised Yemeni government, having won a power struggle against southern separatists, has sensed a shift in momentum. Defence Minister Taher al-Aqili recently declared: “The index of operations is heading towards the capital, Sanaa,” which the Houthis control. The statement signalled a potential ground offensive to retake Houthi territory.

This places the Houthis in a bind. While Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam recently met with Iranian official Ali Larijani in Muscat, Oman, to discuss “unity of the arenas”, the reality on the ground is different. Engaging in a war for Iran could leave the Houthis’ home front exposed to government forces backed by regional rivals.

“Expanding the circle of targeting will only result in expanding the circle of confrontation,” the Houthi-affiliated Supreme Political Council warned in a statement that threatened escalation but also implicitly acknowledged the high cost of a wider war.

Iraq: The internal time bomb

Perhaps nowhere is the dilemma more acute than in Iraq, where the lines between the state and the “resistance” are dangerously blurred.

Iran-aligned militias, many of which operate under the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilisation Forces, are now caught in a direct standoff with the US. Tensions have simmered since late 2024 when Ibrahim Al-Sumaidaie, an adviser to Iraq’s prime minister, revealed that Washington had threatened to dismantle these groups by force, a warning that led to his resignation under pressure from militia leaders.

Today, that threat looms larger than ever. Unlike Hezbollah or the Houthis, these groups are technically part of the Iraqi security apparatus. A retaliation from Iraqi soil would not just risk a militia war but also a direct conflict between the US and the Iraqi state.

With the IRGC commanders who once mediated these tensions now dead, the “restraining hand” is gone. Isolated militia leaders may now decide to strike US bases of their own accord, dragging Baghdad into a war the government has desperately tried to avoid.

Resistance without a head

Khamenei’s assassination has essentially shattered the command-and-control structure of the “axis of resistance”.

The network was built on three pillars: the ideological authority of the supreme leader, the logistical coordination of the IRGC and the geographic connection through Syria. Today, all three are broken.

“The most important damage to Iran’s security interests is the severing of the ground link,” Dareini said. With Khamenei gone, the “spiritual link” is also severed.

What remains is a fragmented landscape. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is too exhausted to open a northern front. In Yemen, the Houthis face a potential domestic offensive. In Iraq, militias risk collapsing the state they live in.

When the dust settles in Tehran, the region will face a dangerous unpredictability. The “axis of resistance” is no longer a coordinated army. It is a collection of angry, heavily armed militias, each calculating its own survival in a world where the orders from Tehran have suddenly stopped coming.

Aden, Yemen – Abu Amjad was shopping with his two children last week, finally able to take them out and buy them new clothes – a cherished Ramadan tradition in Yemen.

The 35-year-old is a teacher, and he had just received his salary. That payment was a sign things are improving in Aden – the salaries are funded by Saudi Arabia as a way of backing the Yemeni government, which has recently arrived to take control of Aden after the defeat of secessionist forces.

But problems and instability are never far away in Yemen.

Just as soon as the children, Amjad, 10, and Mona, 7, began trying on their outfits, the sound of gunfire erupted. Shoppers froze. Amjad and Mona clutched their father, asking to leave.

About 3km (2 miles) away, security forces had opened fire on protesters who attempted to breach the gates of al-Maashiq Palace, where members of the Yemeni government have been based since they arrived from Riyadh a week ago.

The gunfire shattered the family’s moment of joy.

“It ruins your joy when you see a person bleed and robs you of peace when you hear prolonged gunfire,” Abu Amjad told Al Jazeera.

After years of operating from exile, Yemen’s Saudi-backed, UN-recognised cabinet is spending Ramadan in Aden, a move that has coincided with improvements in basic services and a renewed sense of relief. Yet that relief was overshadowed by the deadly confrontation between security forces and antigovernment protesters, in which at least one person was killed.

“That was the first clash after the return of the government to Aden. Our concern is that it may not be the last,” said Abu Amjad.

Government wins

Yemen’s new Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani has said that stabilising Aden and other areas under government control was among the new government’s main priorities.

The Yemeni government is currently in its strongest position for years. An advance by the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) at the end of last year in eastern Yemen ultimately was a step too far for the United Arab Emirates-backed group.

Saudi Arabia considered the STC advance the crossing of a red line, and lent its full military backing to the Yemeni government, allowing it to take territory it had not controlled for years.

Now, the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia are focused on attempting to improve conditions in the southern and eastern areas of Yemen under government control, to attract more public support. That would in turn weaken support for both the STC and the Houthi rebels, who have controlled northwestern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, since the country’s war began in 2014.

Lit city and busy markets

Abdulrahman Mansour, a bus driver and resident of Khormaksar in Aden, said Ramadan this year feels different.

“When I see the lights on and the markets busy on Ramadan nights in Aden, it feels like a different city. The improvement is undeniable,” Mansour, 42, told Al Jazeera.

He noted that one distinct difference this Ramadan is the stable provision of electricity. “This reminds me of the pre-war time. We used to take that service for granted,” said Mansour.

“When the city is dark at night, it appears gloomy, and families prefer to stay home. The movement of people brings life to the city and helps small businesses keep afloat, especially in Ramadan,” Mansour added.

Yemeni Electricity Minister Adnan al-Kaf said last week that efforts to improve electricity services in Aden and other provinces continue, noting that Saudi support had contributed to improved service over the past two months.

Wafiq Saleh, a Yemeni economic researcher, said the improvement in the living standards of citizens in Aden and southern Yemen, in general, was obvious, particularly after Saudi Arabia’s payment of public sector salaries and the supply of basic services such as water and electricity.

Saleh told Al Jazeera, “The recent Saudi financial support has been very generous, and it can help the government during this period by enabling it to work on reactivating dormant resources, resuming oil exports, combating corruption, and improving the efficiency of revenue collection with transparency and good governance.”

But Saleh emphasised that the progress achieved so far is not the result of economic reforms by the Yemeni government, but rather because of Saudi support.

Therefore, according to the economist, the improvement in the living situation and the currency’s value may not be sustainable, even if it is a positive indicator and may be the first step towards promised economic reforms in the country.

“There must be a comprehensive vision for developing revenue collection so that the government can implement sustainable economic reforms,” Saleh said.

Search for cooking gas

While the distribution of electricity has improved in Aden, other essential services remain strained. Cooking gas shortages remain a major concern. The search for it remains a daily struggle for families in the port city, and the crisis has intensified in Ramadan.

Lines of vehicles queue at stations, while residents wait with cylinders for a few litres (quarts) of gas.

“Going from one station to another in search of cooking gas while fasting is exhausting,” said Fawaz Ahmed, a 42-year resident of Khormaksar district.

Fawaz describes the shortage of cooking gas as a cause of hunger in the city. “If I stay in [my home] village, I would resort to firewood. But in the city, that option is not available, and if we find firewood in the market, it is expensive.”

Gas distributors say the quantity of cooking gas supplied to them is not adequate, citing this as the root cause of the crisis. Supplies are transported from Marib province in northern Yemen.

Tensions to continue

The cooking gas shortage is a sign that it will not be plain sailing for the Yemeni government in Aden.

And opponents will likely seize on any ongoing problems to foment more unrest.

Majed al-Daari, editor-in-chief of the independent Yemeni news site Maraqiboun Press, described the situation in Aden as “very worrying”.

“What happened to the demonstrators at the start of Ramadan underscores the fragility of the political and security situation. Tensions are set to continue,” al-Daari said.

“The STC will continue mobilising its supporters against the government. This is its last card that it will use to restore lost political interests,” al-Daari added.

The STC said in a statement last week that raids and arbitrary arrests had targeted people who had participated in the recent protests. These attacks, the statement emphasised, would only increase the determination of the southerner secessionists.

For Abu Amjad,  demonstrations in Aden give space to chaos, which he resents.

“At least, Ramadan should pass without protests. Political actors should spare us this month so we can fast and share some joy with our children,” he said.