Warships

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is reportedly sending three California-based warships and roughly 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, the second significant deployment in a week.

The three warships are part of the San Diego-based USS Boxer amphibious ready group. The Marines are from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, based at Camp Pendleton. The deployments were reported Friday by the Associated Press, citing Pentagon sources.

A 2,500-strong Marine unit accompanied by the USS Tripoli warship launched from Japan on Saturday.

The major reinforcement comes as the war’s economic shock waves are felt throughout the globe, as Washington seeks to secure vital shipping lanes and deter further attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, front, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine arrive for a news conference at the Pentagon in Washington on Thursday.

(Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty Images)

President Trump has continued pressing allies to join his proposed coalition to patrol the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. So far, Europe, Japan, China and Australia have refused to heed the call.

Trump on Thursday said Iran “is close to demolished,” but that securing the Strait of Hormuz remained a struggle. He suggested the U.S. was working to secure the strait not for its own oil needs, but “just to be nice” to other countries that rely on oil from the region to a much larger degree than the U.S.

Marines perform a demonstration with helicopters and the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer Oct. 18, 2025, on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton.

(Gregory Bull / Associated Press)

“They complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!” Trump wrote Friday on Truth Social.

Iran continued sweeping attacks on Mideast energy facilities, a retaliation to Israeli strikes on its Iran’s South Pars field, the world’s largest natural gas field Wednesday. The fallout has dragged the gulf states into the war amid the largest energy supply disruption in history.

Iranian Shahed drones hammered Kuwait’s largest oil refinery Friday. Similar attacks triggered fires at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, bringing energy product screaming to a halt at the largest natural gas hub in the globe. Repairs are expected to take years.

Meanwhile, United Arab Emirates’ air defense systems were countering Iranian missiles overnight, and Saudi Arabia said it might respond with force if Iran continues to attack facilities in the kingdom.

An Israeli self-propelled howitzer artillery gun fires rounds toward southern Lebanon from a position in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border on Friday.

(Jalaa Marey / AFP via Getty Images)

Israel said Friday it had killed Esmail Ahmadi, a senior intelligence official in Iran’s Basij and deputy to its commander, in an airstrike. Officials described Ahmadi as “one of the most important pillars” of the Basij volunteer paramilitary force.

Even as Israel carries out daily decapitation airstrikes in Tehran and the U.S. deploys renewed forces to its front door, the Islamic Republic has not faltered.

Abolfazl Shekarchi, a senior spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces, said American and Israeli officials could be targeted worldwide.

“From now on, based on the information we have, even recreational and tourist locations around the world will not be safe for you,” Shekarchi said.

Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel and found a volatile new floor amid the chaos.

Financial markets have reacted with sustained losses. Wall Street has now posted its fourth consecutive week of declines, with investors increasingly pricing in the risk that higher energy costs could slow economic growth while reigniting inflation. Analysts warn that persistently elevated crude prices are likely to squeeze corporate margins and weigh on consumer spending in the United States and beyond.

The International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the conflict could push inflation higher, too. The Federal Reserve is now facing renewed uncertainty as they weigh whether to hold interest rates higher for longer in response to rising energy costs.

At a White House event on Friday, Trump maintained that the United States’ military operation is “going extremely well in Iran.”

“The difference between them and us is they had a navy two weeks ago and they have no navy anymore. It’s all at the bottom of the sea,” Trump said. “Fifty-eight ships were knocked down in two days and we have the greatest navy in the world. It is not even close.”

The president did not take questions from reporters in the room. But in unprompted remarks, he said the United States and Iran are not engaging in talks because their leaders “are all gone,” adding to the uncertainty about the war’s exit strategy.

“We are having a hard time, we want to talk to them and there is nobody to talk to,” he said. “We have nobody to talk to and you know what? We like it that way.”

A day after several allies rejected his demand they send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said he no longer wants their help. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. leader excoriated the NATO alliance and other countries for not coming to America’s aid when needed.

Trump’s comments come as the global economy is roiled by rising energy costs in the wake of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz for most ships and attacking fuel infrastructure across the Middle East. Trump wanted international help in forcing Iran to reopen the Strait.

“…I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street,” Trump fumed. “We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.”

“Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again!,” Trump added. “Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

As we noted yesterday, the U.K., Germany, Luxembourg, Japan and Australia rejected Trump’s demand while other countries were on the fence. In a post on X, Axios reported that the U.K. has drafted a plan for a Strait of Hormuz coalition and shared it with the U.S. and several other countries.

Highlighting the threat posed by Iran, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center reported that an oil tanker was hit by debris from an interception near the ship, located 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah, UAE. The vessel received minor structural damage and the whole crew was confirmed safe. A maritime industry official told The War Zone that the ship was the Kuwaiti-registered Gas Al Ahmadiah.

Despite increased concerns, this was the first incident involving a ship in the area since March 11, according to UKMTO.

Since the start of Epic Fury, UKMTO has received 21 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There have been 17 attacks and four suspicious activity reports.

Members of the NATO alliance are denying U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that they send warships to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after frequent Iranian attacks. As we noted yesterday, the president said that “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

Germany on Monday outright rejected the demand.

“This is not our war; we did not start it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin on Monday. “We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict, but sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul doesn’t see NATO playing a role in dealing with the blockade of the Strait.

“I don’t see that NATO has made any decision in this direction or could assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz,” he said Monday ahead of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels. “If that were the case, then the NATO bodies would address it accordingly.”

Wadephul added that despite the volatile situation in the Middle East, Ukraine remained Europe’s top security priority, the BBC noted. When the prices for oil and gas rise, he explained, it contributes to Russia’s war chest.

Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel offered a blunter response to Trump’s demand.

“Blackmail is not what I wish for,” he stated, adding that NATO is there to react when members are attacked, not for all defensive or military requests, Bloomberg News noted.

“I want to remind that none of us has been directly attacked,” he said. “There are no grounds for now to invoke Article 5,” he added, referencing the alliance’s collective defense clause.

Germany and Luxembourg joined Japan and Australia in rejecting Trump’s call for help in reopening the Strait, at least for now.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said while the Strait must be reopened, it is not up to the alliance to do so.

“Let me be clear, that won’t be, and it’s never envisioned to be, a NATO mission,” he said, adding that Britain will not be “drawn into the wider war.”

Britain “is working with allies on a ​collective plan to reopen ‌the Strait of Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation in ​the Middle East ​but it will not be ⁠easy, ” Starmer posited, according to Reuters.

“Ultimately, ​we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability ​in the (oil) market. That ​is not a simple task,” Starmer ‌told ⁠reporters.

Britain and Germany, after Australia, become the latest allies not jumping to send warships to protect the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump wants. https://t.co/wxDkAnoIa4

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 16, 2026

Some nations are willing to listen to any plan Trump might present to NATO.

“We have to look into it and consider it,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Bloomberg TV in an interview in Brussels. “I would look for an in-depth debate within NATO.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski concurred.

“If there is a request with NATO to discuss the issue, we will of course consider it out of respect and sympathy for our allies,” he said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas encouraged member states to consider expanding their Aspides naval mission, originally launched in 2024 while Houthis attacked shipping in the nearby Red Sea.

“If we want to have security in this region, it would be easiest to already use the operation we have in the region and maybe change a bit,” Kallas said.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts the global economy and helps Russia fund its war.

It is affecting our partners in the region and is dangerous for global energy supplies.

Today, EU Foreign Ministers will discuss how to better protect shipping in the region, including… pic.twitter.com/iJSVdT7FqA

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) March 16, 2026

While the Aspides vessels are currently allowed to navigate in the Strait of Hormuz, its mandate doesn’t allow more than that,” Bloomberg News posited, adding that EU countries would have to unanimously agree to change those directives, which could be difficult.

“There is no change to Aspides mission or posture,” Lt Colonel Socrates Ravanos, an Aspides spokesman, told us on Monday. “EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to carry out its mandate, ensuring the protection and security of commercial maritime traffic within its area of operations.”

The operation’s “assets in the area of operation monitor the situation closely and remain vigilant,” he continued. “Maritime security developments in the region are continuously assessed in coordination with partners and relevant maritime authorities.”

Concern over Iranian attacks in the Strait date back many decades. Back in 2012, The Washington Institute estimated that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class (mine counter measure) MCM vessels.


The Washington Institute estimated years ago that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class MCM vessels.⁰
The Navy has three MCM-equipped LCS in the region. https://t.co/vFTRppfdwL

— Hunterbrook (@hntrbrkmedia) March 13, 2026

As we previously reported, however, the last four of those decommissioned vessels left Bahrain in January aboard a larger heavy lift vessel.

The Navy has three MCM-equipped Littoral Combat Ships in the region, Hunterbrook noted. As we reported yesterday, two Independence class Littoral Combat Ships configured for mine-sweeping duties that were previously deployed to the Middle East showed up in port in Malaysia. Both the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara had arrived in Bahrain in the past year or so to take the place of a group of now-decommissioned Avenger class mine hunters. You can read more about that in our story here.

In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday reiterated that the administration is forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up and do more to open the Strait of Hormuz, and our NATO allies especially need to step up,” she told Fox News. “President Trump has been very frank with our friends in NATO for a very long time… now he’s calling on them to do the right thing.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on the administration forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz: “The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up… pic.twitter.com/SgxvPSExab

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) March 16, 2026

In his latest update on Epic Fury, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Monday said attacks are “zeroed in on dismantling Iran’s decades old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, through a combination of air, land and maritime capabilities. We have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren’t done.”

Iranian attacks on shipping seem to have tapered off.

Between the start of Epic Fury on Feb. 28 and March 12, The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office received 20 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There were 16 attacks on ships, and four reports of suspicious activity. There have been no verified reports of attacks since March 12, according to UKMTO.

Amid the debate on how to protect Strait shipping, the first non-Iranian ship has transited the Strait with its AIS transponder on, according to the MarineTraffic open-source tracking site. Several observers have noted how close to the Iranian shore these ships are traveling. This could be due to Iranian mines, even though Trump on Monday repeated the assertion that Epic Fury attacks have destroyed all Iran’s mine-laying ships. Mines can be laid by small boats and Iran has practices doing exactly this in the past. This could also just be a safe deconfliction corridor Iran is using for safe passage.

The U.S. is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships getting through the Strait of Hormuz for now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.

The closure of the Strait has forced several nations to alter their energy policies. Japan started the largest-ever release of oil from its strategic reserves on Monday, according to the Japan Times. The 80 million-barrel effort comes as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and crude oil prices continue to soar.

“The release — 15 days’ worth of domestic demand from mandatory private reserves and one month from national reserves — was the seventh ever conducted in the nation,” the publication noted.

BREAKING Japan says it is beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.

Japan depends on the Middle East for 95% of its oil imports pic.twitter.com/XLqWOFJSl6

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 16, 2026

South Korea is also taking action in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz closure. It is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG, explains Bloomberg energies and commodities columnist Javier Blas in a post on X.

South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG

The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation that Europe didn’t have in 2022

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 16, 2026

Beyond attacking shipping in the Strait, Iran is continuing strikes across the region.

The UAE says it is defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Video emerged from the scene of another Iranian attack on the UAE’s Fujairah Port facility, showing thick plumes wafting into the sky.

נמל אלפוג’יירה באיחוד האמירויות עולה באש לאחר שהותקף בידי כטב”ם איראני pic.twitter.com/A1mgsohK1o

— איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) March 16, 2026

An Indian-flagged crude tanker had a close call when the UAE’s Fujairah port came under attack on Saturday while it was loading crude at the oil terminal, according to the Times of India. The vessel sailed out safely the next day with everyone onboard unhurt.

JAG LAADKI an Indian flagged Crude Oil Tanker is being escorted out of the Gulf of Oman by the Indian Navy as maritime security in the region remains tense pic.twitter.com/0YdR06QxDJ

— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) March 16, 2026

Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on X, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.

(Reuters) – Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Indian authorities…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 16, 2026

In a brief chat with PBS News, Trump repeated his stance, since denied by Tehran, that Iran wants to negotiate.

“We’re doing very well,” he told the outlet, reiterating comments about destroying Iran’s military. He added: “They want to make a deal but they’re not ready to make a deal in my opinion.”

Just had a brief phone call with @potus this morning and asked him several questions about Iran. He noted when he answered that it was not a good time to chat because he was in the middle of a “very important meeting” about it – but said the following:

— Liz Landers (@ElizLanders) March 16, 2026

In addition to frequent conversations with Israeli leaders, Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

“According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake, according to The New York Times.

Just as the war is poised to escalate this leak could be adding fuel to fire. According to @nytimes “Mr. Trump is talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the…

— Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr) March 16, 2026

Axios reported that “some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time” before an attack on Iran.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,’” the source told the outlet. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.”

A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,'” the source said. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.” https://t.co/lJWB1SyOhM

— Axios (@axios) March 16, 2026

The America class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is continuing to speed toward the Middle East after the Pentagon ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to bolster forces in the region. 

The vessel, along with two Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts, was last seen about 420 miles from Manilla, pushing deep into the South China Sea, according to open-source investigator MT Anderson.

“Running an aviation-optimized amphibious assault ship at high speed with a dedicated twin-destroyer escort is a heavily protected, offensive posture,” Anderson assessed. “They are moving with purpose, bringing a major Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) umbrella with them as they sprint toward the theater.”

HIGH-SPEED TRANSIT: USS Tripoli Flanked by Heavy Escorts

OSINT Update (Mar 15 imagery): Tracking the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) as she continues her rapid push toward the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. She is not making this run alone.

The Fix: Spotted ~678 km from Manila,… pic.twitter.com/Zy8ddlp4lW

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) March 16, 2026

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday it had begun a “targeted ground operation against key targets” in southern Lebanon, pushing more forces deeper into the area as part of an expanded buffer zone, The Times of Israel reported. The move came after Hezbollah began attacking Israel earlier this month amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation would continue until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat to the residents of northern Israel, and said displaced Lebanese would not return to their homes until then.

IDF’s 401st Brigade troops of the 91st Division carry out precision raids in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/eYwjr2jwXG

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026

Hezbollah reportedly used its Almas missiles for the first time in this conflict. You can read more about these weapons in our story here.

#Lebanon: Hezbollah has used its first Almas missile amid ongoing conflict with Israel.

While Hezbollah primarily uses anti-tank missiles such as the Konkurs and Kornet, the Iranian-made Almas (a copy of the Israeli Spike) offers more advanced capabilities.

As seen in the… https://t.co/kIpei0jLc8 pic.twitter.com/EmW2P1aSVe

— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) March 16, 2026

The IDF also said it attacked an Iranian space-related compound that researcher Fabian Hinz said was used to conduct research on exoatmospheric guidance.

The Iranians were conducting a lot of research and development work on exoatmospheric guidance technologies as part of their missile and SLV programs. Would not be surprised if they were eventually aiming to develop direct-ascent anti-satellite capabilities as well. https://t.co/sugj1KrDPq

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) March 16, 2026

China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy, Al Jazeera reported on X.

BREAKING: China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy. pic.twitter.com/rWyDn2DxgV

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 16, 2026

Online flight trackers say a Qatari Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week, following a similar flight the week before.

The nature of these flights is unclear. However, with Rzeszów serving as the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, it is possible the flights may have been delivering air defense interceptors originally intended for Ukraine or transporting Ukrainian counter drone specialists. We just don’t know.

A Qatar Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week.

A UAE Air Force C-17A also carried out a similar flight to the same destination last week.

Rzeszów is the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, so the… pic.twitter.com/o5JjxEulpc

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 15, 2026

The flow of videos out of Iran, already greatly reduced because of the regime’s internet blockage, has slowed even further.

“There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours. I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access,” BBC journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh noted on X.

There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours.

I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access. https://t.co/KOCGBS5fXr

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 16, 2026

Still, some videos are making it out, like this one purporting to show Iranian Basij paramilitary forces hiding in a school.

Basij forces and government security agents had gathered inside a school, a citizen who sent a video to Iran International said. pic.twitter.com/RkEjEtMCMK

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 16, 2026

UPDATES:

We have concluded our rolling coverage for the day.

UPDATE: 5:48 PM EST –

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi pushed back on claims that he has established backchannel communications with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

My last contact with Mr. Witkoff was prior to his employer’s decision to kill diplomacy with another illegal military attack on Iran.

Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and the public.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

With speculation rife that is he is badly wounded or perhaps even dead, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will reportedly give a television speech in the coming days. Khamenie, who Iranian officials have admitted was wounded in an airstrike, has not been seen in public since.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry Advisor tells Lebanese Al-Jadeed that the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will deliver a televised speech “in the coming days.”

The advisor stated that Khamenei is in direct contact with military and political leaders, “and the reason for his…

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 16, 2026

Speaking to reporters at The White House, Trump extolled the virtues of the B-2A Spirit stealth bomber.

“Let me hug that little sucker,” he said while asking an aide to hand him a model of the aircraft the president keeps in the Oval Office.

UPDATE: 5:24 PM EST –

MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, home of the command running the war in Iran, is reopening its main gate after a bomb scare earlier today, a spokesman for the 6th Air Refueling Wing, the base host unit, confirmed to The War Zone.

“The incident has been terminated and we are ready to open the main gate and visitor center,” the spokesman told us. The base, however, was not on lockdown.

MacDill is home to CENTCOM, U.S. Special Operations Command as well as the 6th Air Refueling Wing (6th ARW) and the 927th Air Refueling Wing and dozens of other mission partners. Last week, three airmen assigned to the 6th ARW were among six killed in a crash of a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker.

Today’s situation unfolded this afternoon when a suspicious package was found at the Visitors Center near the Dale Mabry entrance gate, according to the FBI. The bureau sent its Special Agent Bomb Techs to the scene, who worked it along with Tampa Police, the FBI said in a post on X.

UPDATE: 4:23 PM EST –

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump seemed surprised that Iran would actually attack its neighbors if it came under fire.

The president was responding to a question about whether he was briefed about possible Iranian strikes on nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Trump on Iran:

I heard they were sending missiles to the UAE. I said, “That’s strange, you know? The UAE is like the banker for Iran.” They’re sort of the banker. Qatar, their neighbors — they got along okay.

Then suddenly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait — Kuwait is getting hit. Bahrain… pic.twitter.com/KVVvX1sKMw

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

🇮🇷📲🇺🇸A direct communications channel between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi & U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official & a source with knowledge. Read the story by @MarcACaputo & me on @Axios https://t.co/izoFpwZV5m

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 16, 2026

Araghchi lashed out at comments made by U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth that America would show “no quarter” in Epic Fury.

“When the U.S. Secretary of War declares ‘no quarter.’ he doesn’t project strength,” Araghchi stated on X. “He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.”

When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn’t project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

The IDF Chief of the General Staff approved plans to continue operations in the Northern Command.

“The impact of the strike and the weakening of the radical regime in Iran is also felt in the campaign against Hezbollah,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. “To date, the Northern Command has eliminated more than 400 Hezbollah terrorists.”

הרמטכ״ל באישור תוכניות להמשך בפיקוד הצפון: ״ההדף של הפגיעה והחלשת המשטר הרדיקאלי באיראן מורגש גם במערכה מול חיזבאללה; עד כה פיקוד צפון חיסל למעלה מ-400 מחבלי חיזבאללה״

״אנו נערכים להמשך ומתגברים את פיקוד הצפון בכוחות נוספים על מנת להרחיב את הפעולה הצבאית, להעמיק את הפגיעה… pic.twitter.com/HrBMLk9LFf

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) March 16, 2026

UPDATE 3:50 PM EST –

CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed to The War Zone that more than 200 troops have been wounded or injured across seven countries since the start of Epic Fury. The injuries took place in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and more than 180 troops have already returned to duty,” he explained, adding that 10 troops were seriously injured.

In addition to the wounded, seven U.S. troops have been killed in Iranian attacks, the most serious being March 1 when six Army soldiers were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait. Another six Air Force airmen died when their KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq, reportedly after colliding with another KC-135.

The Washington Post was first to report the latest casualty figures.

U.S. troops have been wounded or injured in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

More here:https://t.co/IRmwkfwWsN

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 16, 2026

CENTCOM released its latest Epic Fury update, saying it struck more than 7,000 targets, flew more than 6,500 combat sorties and damaged or destroyed more than 100 Iranian ships.

Baghdad continues to be hit.

In what looks like a scene from a video game, a counter rocket, artillery, and mortar C-RAM system is seen engaging with a drone over Baghdad.

C-Ram successful interception of a drone/rocket launched by Iranian-backed militias in Baghdad this evening. The Target was the U.S embassy. pic.twitter.com/EuHGx705gR

— Steven Nabil (@thestevennabil) March 16, 2026

Footage of a reported coalition interception of an Iranian drone can be seen in the following video.

Not all the interceptions apparently worked. A drone reportedly slammed into the Royal Tulip al-Rasheed hotel in the Iraqi capital.

The Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Sunday that it temporarily transferred its special forces from Iraq due to worsening safety and failure to conduct missions securely.“The Special Operations Task Group was relocated to safe areas because the security situation prevented it from continuing training operations with Iraqi forces,” according to the ministry.

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption, according to Kpler.

Hormuz GPS disruption continues

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption. This interference is triggering false AIS positioning,… pic.twitter.com/VXiaxHwFat

— Kpler (@Kpler) March 16, 2026

Wild video was posted on X of an Israeli interception of an Iranian ballistic missile. No injuries were reported, according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel “Mannie” Fabian.

No injuries are reported in Iran’s latest ballistic missile salvo on Israel, the sixth since midnight, and the first in some six hours.

A small number of missiles were launched, which were likely intercepted, according to initial military assessments.

Sirens had sounded across… https://t.co/9JaXEDgJJm pic.twitter.com/5t2YXuw7AQ

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

UPDATE: 2:42 PM EST –

The war with Iran is expected to last at least another month, according to Israel media, citing a senior Israeli official.

“Israel is reportedly preparing for an extended phase of fighting as it seeks to further weaken the Iranian regime and capitalize on what it views as signs of internal instability within the country’s leadership,” The Times of Israel reported. “According to the source, U.S. President Donald Trump supports Israel in continuing the campaign.”

We reached out to the White House for comment.

❗️ Senior Israeli source: Iran war will continue for longer than expected; we’re preparing to fight for another month at least; Trump is on board.

via N12 News https://t.co/gkDAbmaod1

— Israel Radar (@IsraelRadar_com) March 16, 2026

NATO responded to our query about debate over sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz.

“Allies have already stepped up to provide additional security in the Mediterranean,” a NATO official told us. “We are aware that individual Allies are talking with the US and others on what more they might do, including in the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz.”

In the first 96 hours of Epic Fury, the US-led coalition “expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types,” according to a new report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).

“This carries a munitions-only replacement bill of $10–$16 billion in four days,” FPRI posited. “This represents a significant industrial burden for replacing some munitions that cannot be replenished in 4 days, 4 weeks, or even 4 months. Worse, those estimates do not include combat losses of warfighting assets or damage to bases and the high-end air defense enabling architecture.”

We have an important new analysis of munitions used in the first 96 hours of the war with Iran out at the @FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute).

In the first 96 hours, the US-led coalition expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types. This carries a munitions-only…

— Morgan Bazilian (@MBazilian) March 16, 2026

Video has emerged showing intense flames at Dubai International Airport’s fuel storage area after an Iranian attack.

CENTCOM posted additional video of its attacks on Iranian targets.

Thousands of Iranian military targets have been struck by U.S. forces to neutralize threats posed by the Iranian regime now and into the future. pic.twitter.com/dE4VNxjjW1

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 16, 2026

MT Anderson provided an update on the location of the Tripoli. The ship was spotted on AIS North of the Riau Archipelago, transiting the southern South China Sea at 18 knots.

The Iraqi armed faction Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its spokesperson, known as Abu Ali al-Askari. He was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike after a wave of attacks against U.S. facilities in Iraq.

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
بكل فخر ورضا بقضاء الله وقدره، نزف لكم نبأ استشهاد الحاج أبو علي العسكري إلى جنات الخلد.
  ذلك الصوت الشجاع الذي لم يخرس أمام الظلم، واللسان الصادق الذي زرع في نفوس المجاهدين معاني الإباء والصمود.
  لقد كان الشهيد شريان التواصل بين ميادين التضحية ومنصات…

— صابرين نيوز – Sabereen news (@sabreenS11) March 16, 2026

Six people were injured in a Hezbollah rocket attack in Nahariya, according to medics. The town is located about eight miles south of the Lebanese border.

Six people are injured in a Hezbollah rocket strike on a home in Nahariya, medics say.

Magen David Adom says it treated two adults and four minors with signs of smoke inhalation. They are all listed in good condition.

The IDF says the impact was caused by a rocket launched from… pic.twitter.com/IeKGd0amAB

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry (MFA) condemned the latest Israeli incursion into Lebanon.

“The Netanyahu government’s collective punishment and genocidal policies in Lebanon will lead to a new humanitarian catastrophe in the region,” the MFA said in a statement on Monday. “We reaffirm our solidarity with Lebanon amid these attacks, which violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

UPDATE: 1:50 PM EST –

Speaking at a board meeting of the Trump Kennedy Center, the president claimed he predicted that Iran would attack shipping in the Strait.

NOW – Trump says he predicted Iran would weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, adding, “I predicted all of it. I predicted Osama bin Laden would knock out the World Trade Center. I made that prediction a year before he did it.” pic.twitter.com/6VqkvzamW0

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026

The president added that he does not know Iran mined the Strait.

He also said the U.S. has hit 7,000 targets since launching Epic Fury.

Trump on Iran:

Since the beginning of the conflict, we struck more than 7,000 targets across Iran; these have been mostly military and commercial targets. pic.twitter.com/ppiyztSRDj

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

France has reportedly boosted its deployment of Rafale fighters to Jordan and UAE to 24, more than double the usual 10, according to French defense observer Tom Antonov. The jets have already intercepted dozens of Iranian drones, he added in a post on X.

The MQ-9 Reaper drones have played a big role in the war, and have been heavily targeted by Iran. To date, the U.S. has lost about a dozen Reapers, including one accidentally shot down by an ally, according to The Wall Street Journal.

NATO is considering boosting its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter

“The military alliance already deployed a battery in eastern Turkey to protect an early-warning radar used to track missiles across the Middle East,” the outlet stated. “It’s now considering sending another Patriot missile-defense system to bolster an airbase where American troops are stationed.”

NATO is looking into reinforcing further its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/eQzealf1qp

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

We are seeing the total destruction of Iran’s naval capabilities unfold day by day. Earlier this morning, the Pentagon announced that a U.S. Navy submarine had made the first torpedo kill since World War II against an Iranian frigate in the Indian Ocean. Now we are seeing footage of one of Iran’s strangest and most advanced warships, the Shahid Soleimani class IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi (FS313-03), being struck and set ablaze. The ship would later sink, according to the Department of War.

The first ship in her class, the Shahid Soleimani, was commissioned in 2022, and is a very unique vessel indeed. Built for littoral combat, it incorporates a number of interesting features for a ship of its size. This includes a vertical launch system with two cell sizes that is capable of slinging air defense missiles. It also features anti-ship cruise missiles, gun systems, and a large flight deck. Clearly, Shahid Sayyad Shirazi‘s capabilities offered little help to its survival, as the video, shot by a U.S. surveillance aircraft, shows.

In fact, if you look closely at the image at the top of the story, it appears that either a missile is exiting one of the IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi‘s vertical launch cells or it is stuck on its launch rail. We also see an image with smoke streaks surrounding the ship. It isn’t clear if this was it launching weapons at its attackers, or the attacker’s weapons finding their way to the Shahid Sayyad Shirazi.

It’s also worth noting that the IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi‘s first-in-class progenitor is named after the IRGC commander that U.S. forces killed during the first Trump Administration in a strike near the Baghdad airport. This assassination in 2020 went on to largely set the tone between Tehran and Washington during the remainder of Trump’s first and now his second presidency.

We previously noted that at least one of the four Shahid Soleimani class corvettes escaped initial U.S. airstrikes on its home port of Bandar Abbas, Iran’s most important naval base that sits right in the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was at its berth just days before the war kicked off, but was nowhere to be found in subsequent satellite imagery. That vessel very well could have been the one sunk.

Ракетные катамараны Ирана типа Shahid Soleimani, обзор

This class of vessels is the most advanced of Iran’s catamaran warships, which are often configured in a puzzling manner. These ships are active components of the naval arm of the IRGC, nonetheless, and have played a part in close encounters with U.S. Navy warships in the region.

As an update to our prior reporting on the strikes on Bandar Abbas, new satellite imagery we have reviewed appears to show both frigates that were struck in the first attacks now having sunk. The single Kilo class submarine, Iran’s most advanced, which was docked at the base, also appears to have been sunk, and a large scorch mark sits next to where it was tied-up pier-side. U.S. Central Command confirmed it had targeted the “most operational Iranian submarine” in ongoing strikes last night.

U.S. Navy could soon be escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic has effectively stopped due to the current conflict with Iran, according to President Donald Trump. Doing so would demand that American naval vessels transit through the Strait, shifting them away from other duties. More importantly, it would also mean putting them right in a super weapons engagement zone full of Iranian threats that could include cruise and ballistic missiles, one-way-attack drones, explosive-laden kamikaze boats, and naval mines.

“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” President Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social social media network.

“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf,” he also wrote. “This will be available to all Shipping Lines.”

“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH,” he added. “More actions to come.”

U.S. Central Command declined to comment when reached for more details. TWZ has also reached out to the White House.

The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is just 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point. A significant portion of the waterway falls within Iran’s national waters, which also overlap with those of Oman to the south. Under normal conditions, maritime traffic flows in and out through a pair of established two-mile-wide shipping lanes. Each year, roughly one-fifth of all global oil shipments, and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments, pass through this one waterway. It is also a major conduit for liquid natural gas exports. Some 3,000 ships, including tankers and container ships, pass through each month.

Politico had earlier reported that President Trump’s administration was considering both of these courses of action, citing unnamed sources.

“It’s becoming a growing concern that the energy markets could face pressures in the coming days as the military campaign intensifies and expands in geographic scope,” one individual said to be familiar with the discussions told that outlet. “Access to the Straits [sic] of Hormuz is obviously vital for both natural gas and crude oil shipments, especially from Qatar and Saudi [Arabia].”

Lloyd’s List has also reported that Trump’s announcement came “less than 24 hours after Navy officials told shipping industry representatives that there was ‘no chance’ of escorts happening any time soon.”

Several civilian vessels have already suffered attacks in and around the Strait since the United States and Israel launched their joint operation against Iran this past weekend. Though American officials insist that Iranian forces have been unable to seal off the highly strategic waterway, maritime traffic through it has now come to a near halt amid the ongoing fighting. Some ships appear to be making the transit with the transporters turned off to reduce the chance of being targeted. The real danger of attack has been compounded by insurers cancelling war risk policies ahead of what are expected to be major rate hikes.

Iranian retaliatory attacks have also been hitting port facilities, as well as energy infrastructure, in multiple Gulf Arab states. As noted, if this situation persists, the potential knock-on effects on global oil and natural gas markets could quickly become severe. Since Iranian authorities have repeatedly threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a major crisis that threatens the regime, TWZ has explored all of this in detail in the past.

Iranian attack drones struck oil storage infrastructure in Fujairah, UAE, this morning, causing a large fire.

Notably, Fujairah is the only major oil export terminal in the UAE that avoids the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/DdAbVOyRoc

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2026

This is not the first time that the United States has been faced with this predicament or decided to start escorting commercial vessels through the region as a result. The U.S. Navy did just this in the late 1980s during the Tanker War sideshow to the Iran-Iraq War. At the same time, that experience underscores the immense amount of resources such a campaign could require, as well as the risks.

At the peak of those operations, there were some 30 American warships escorting commercial vessels to and from the Persian Gulf. Aircraft, special operations forces, and other assets were also deployed in support. The risks to American service members, as well as the ships they were tasked to safeguard, were very real.

Shortly before the escort mission began in 1987, the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate USS Stark was struck by two French-made Exocet anti-ship cruise missiles fired from an Iraqi aircraft as it sailed in the Persian Gulf. The government of Iraq, then led by Saddam Hussein, apologized, claiming they had mistaken the Americans for an Iranian tanker. In the end, 37 U.S. Navy personnel died, and 21 more were wounded.

In 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, another Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate, was severely damaged after hitting an Iranian naval mine in the Persian Gulf while supporting the escort mission. 10 sailors were injured, but there were thankfully no fatalities.

In the course of the Tanker War, 450 commercial ships also came under attack, and many were damaged or even sunk by missiles, mines, and other threats.

More recently, the U.S. military, as well as the European Union, have established naval task forces to help ensure the free flow of maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as elsewhere in the Middle East. When it comes to Iran, those forces have primarily been called on to respond to attempts to seize ships or otherwise harass them. In the past decade or so, outright Iranian attacks on ships in and around the Persian Gulf have generally been covert and sporadic.

U.S. fires warning shots at Iranian fast boats.

The U.S. Navy released the video below in 2019 in relation to an Iranian covert limpet mine attack on a commercial ship in the Gulf of Oman.

Limpet Mine Attack in the Gulf of Oman: JUNE 13, 2019

Escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz now would involve U.S. Navy warships sailing right into an extremely high-threat zone in the midst of a conflict that has already taken on a regional character.

In general, the U.S. Navy, as well as commercial shipping companies, have loathed convoy operations despite the benefits they offer. As already noted, these missions can be very resource-intensive, as well as risky. Ships tasked with these missions are then also not available for other duties, including striking targets ashore or helping defend other assets. It can also be very time-consuming to assemble maritime convoys and then escort them to their destination. You can read more about all this in a past TWZ feature here.

For all the lessons the U.S. military learned during the Tanker War, Iran has also significantly expanded the scale and scope of anti-ship capabilities since then, as we regularly highlight. Iran’s missile, drone, and naval forces have been degraded just in the past few days of intensive U.S.-Israeli strikes. How much Iran was able to reconstitute missile and other capabilities in the aftermath of losses during the 12 Day War with Israel last year is also unclear.

Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO. The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global… pic.twitter.com/nzdkMVMqZC

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026

The Iranian regime’s killer drones have been a menace in the Middle East for years. These drones are no longer a tolerable risk. pic.twitter.com/76yhDKI6OW

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 3, 2026

At the same time, much of Iran’s shorter-range missile and drone arsenal is understood to be untouched, as well as dispersed, making interdiction now more challenging. Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio highlighted these threats and the dangers they pose.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short range ballistic missiles and the threat posed by their navy, particularly to naval assets.

That is what the U.S. is focused on right now and is doing quite successfully. pic.twitter.com/zWKBOLVstH

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 2, 2026

Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen were able to cause massive disruptions in maritime traffic in and around the Red Sea between late 2023 and early 2025 using just a portion of what Iran itself could still potentially bring to bear. The U.S. response to Houthi attacks, which included naval deployments to help safeguard commercial shipping, did provide additional valuable lessons learned. It also underscored very real risks to naval assets in environments full of missile and drone threats, as well as to aircraft, including stealth types, flying overhead.

The narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the insular nature of the Persian Gulf, creates additional challenges and risks compared to operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden because there is simply less space to maneuver. Iranian anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as one-way-attack drones, can be fired from road-mobile launchers, including ones disguised as civilian trucks, making it even more difficult to find and fix threats in advance. Proximity in the littoral zone to these threats only further reduces the time available to react.

The Iranian regime is using mobile launchers to indiscriminately fire missiles in an attempt to inflict maximum harm across the region. U.S. forces are hunting these threats down and without apology or hesitation, we are taking them out. pic.twitter.com/gv1SfKCrk4

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 3, 2026

Escort operations mean that American warships would need to transit through the highest threat areas repeatedly, as well, which would only give Iranian forces more engagement opportunities. There is a reason why U.S. naval vessels are currently operating well away from the Persian Gulf in the Arabian Sea, as well as the Eastern Mediterranean.

U.S. naval facilities, as well as civilian ports, on the opposite side of the Persian Gulf have also come under Iranian attack in the past few days, and would not be guaranteed sanctuaries to shelter in. Iranian retaliatory attacks across the Middle East are already showing the limits of some of the most modern air defense capabilities on Earth, especially when faced with large volumes and/or complex mixtures of disparate incoming threats.

An Iranian one-way attack drone, likely a Shahed-136, filmed scoring a direct hit earlier Saturday on the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain in Juffair, located in Manama, the capital of Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/O9AVD7DmzC

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2026

It is possible that U.S. allies and partners could help bolster an operation to protect regional shipping that is sufficiently separate from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The United Kingdom and France are already conducting defense missions to intercept incoming Iranian threats around the Persian Gulf, as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both of those countries, among others, are also sending more forces to bolster defenses around the region. As already made clear, a protracted upending of oil and natural gas exports from the Arabian Peninsula, as well as Iran itself, will reverberate globally.

TWZ has pointed to this reality in the past as raising key questions about whether the Iranian regime would have the political will, let alone the materiel capacity, to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. For now, though, as we wrote just this morning:

“Increased targeting of Gulf Arab States’ oil and natural gas production is part of a clear Iranian strategy to put pressure on those countries to, in turn, create complications for the United States. As the economic pressure builds, the idea is that these countries will seek to end the conflict, and/or that relations with the U.S. will sour. The prospect of major, long-term disruptions in energy exports from the region has global ramifications, as well, which could bring immense external pressure to end the conflict. There is also the aspect of drawing Arab countries into the conflict, which would complicate it politically and militarily. In addition, some energy targets are not as well defended as U.S. bases in the region, for instance, and scoring hits with the now finite weapons Iran has on hand becomes easier.”

How this will continue to play out, especially if more countries begin to take ostensibly defensive action against Iranian threats, is unknown. There is a very real potential for Iran’s strategy to backfire if the crisis begins to take a toll economically well beyond the Middle East.

U.S. Navy warships escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could help soften those impacts, but not without major risks, as well as the expenditure of significant resources. Risks would remain for shipping companies too, who could still be reluctant to make the transit, especially with uncertain insurance guarantees.

Overall, it remains to be seen how a U.S. mission to get oil and gas flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz might materialize.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com