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Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where USC’s loss to Oregon on Saturday has left me grappling with what it means to have a successful season in this day and age of college football.

USC will not be going to the College Football Playoff. It’ll be the fourth straight year under Lincoln Riley that USC is left out of the field. In that time, Indiana — which last won a conference title in 1967 — will have twice been a Playoff team. Assuming Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon all make this year’s field as expected, the Big Ten’s current membership will have accounted for 19 bids to the Playoff since it began in 2014 … none from USC.

There’s no getting around these facts. USC expects to compete for national titles every year, but in four seasons with Riley as coach, it hasn’t even made it to the dance floor. That’s not what USC was promised when it handed Riley a massive $110-million contract.

If USC beats UCLA next week, as expected, it will finish this season 9-3. That’s better than most rational observers would have expected — myself included. Oddsmakers had USC’s win total set at 7 1/2. I wrote in this space that I thought USC would win eight regular season games, but the best case was 10 and a Playoff bid. USC was within striking distance of that scenario. It fell just short.

Riley would like for you to focus on how narrow that gap is.

“We’re right there,” the coach said again Saturday. But no matter how many plays away USC might be from a Playoff bid in 2025 or four straight national titles in his tenure, Riley’s repeated assurances that this is the case have ceased to mean much to those he thinks he’s assuring. At some point, USC needs to stop being close and actually break through.

It took a step closer to that this season. There’s no shame in losing to three teams ranked in the top 21 of the CFP rankings. USC beat all the teams it was supposed to beat. It won on the road at Nebraska, Riley’s first road win over a .500 team since 2022. And it blew just one fourth-quarter lead, not five like last season.

In the 16 years since Pete Carroll left USC, the Trojans have reached the nine-win mark in the regular season just five times. With a win next week, Riley will have reached that mark twice in four years.

But without a Playoff bid, does a nine-win season really mean anything anymore? Is it possible for USC — or any Power Four team, for that matter — to miss the field and still view its season as a success?

If you thought that USC was going to make the College Football Playoff, you are no doubt disappointed. Most people, though, didn’t. And perhaps the fact that no one is surprised at the way this went is why it’s hard for anyone to feel excited about a 9-3 finish and a second-rate bowl game.

USC took a step forward this season. It wasn’t the leap many fans were hoping for. But it was a step. The reality is this was never a team that was going to seriously compete for a national title. It didn’t have enough talent.

Riley didn’t necessarily do USC any favors in that regard. Progress aside, he simply hasn’t done enough to make anyone, his bosses included, feel good about where next season might go.

There are reasons for optimism. Riley will have the No. 1 recruiting class at his disposal, along with several young returners USC will be counting on to make a leap. But he’ll also have to contend with a schedule that includes Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana and Penn State.

The road to the Playoff will be as difficult as it has ever been. But that is the bar that Riley must now clear. And by this time next season, we should have a pretty good idea of whether Riley is capable of clearing it.

Going polling

I want to hear what you think about this season as a whole. Do you consider USC’s season to be a success, even without a Playoff bid?

Yes?
No?

Click here to vote in our survey.

Tanook Hines catches a pass thrown by third-string quarterback Sam Huard on a fake punt against Northwestern.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

—The leaping penalty was a major turning point in the loss to Oregon. But should it have been a penalty? The flag on linebacker Desman Stephens negated what would’ve been a key missed field goal by Oregon, and afterward, Riley explained that Stephens “panicked” and did something they don’t teach. But NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay, who you may remember from his disdain for USC’s fake punt ploy, posited on social media that it was actually a totally legal play. McAulay wrote that Stephens “leaps into the gap” on the play and “the fact that part of his body is over part of an opponent does not violate the rule,” which states that a player cannot leap into the plane directly above the frame of an opponent. We should note USC lost this game by two touchdowns, so reversing that one wouldn’t have made the difference. That said, I will be curious to ask Riley for his take on Tuesday.

—The offensive line injuries finally caught up to USC. When center Kilian O’Connor went down with what appeared to be another knee injury Saturday and returned to the sideline on crutches, with his leg mobilized, it felt like a foreboding sign. A hobbled J’Onre Reed struggled in his place. Up against a stout Oregon front seven, the Trojans’ line was facing an uphill battle, and it never made much headway. USC ran for just 52 yards, its worst mark in two years. Oregon barely had to blitz — it rushed with four on 27 of 31 dropbacks. This was simply a better defensive line beating up on a more limited offensive line. But USC’s offensive line showed a lot of heart over the course of the last six weeks, and there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic. USC returns everyone in the room except for Reed and has several freshmen whose progress has impressed the staff this season.

—Tanook Hines can be a star as soon as next season. You saw once again what Hines is capable of as he leaped into the air to reel in Makai Lemon’s pass and tapped his toes in the end zone on the way down. The raw ability is apparent, and his propensity for big plays has been terrific for a freshman. The question now is whether he can emerge as a more consistent threat that’s leaned on to do more than just make highlight catches in traffic. Lemon is leaving for the NFL after this season, and while USC will surely try to convince Ja’Kobi Lane to stay, my guess is he’ll be ready to go, too, depending on his draft grade. That leaves Hines and whichever star transfer wideout(s) general manager Chad Bowden unearths in the portal to lead the receiving corps. Hines should be a big part of those plans, no matter what, and if he makes the leap, he could be in for a huge sophomore season.

—USC won’t be going to the Playoff, but there will be a consolation bowl appearance. Assuming the Trojans can win next week against UCLA, they’re most likely headed to the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Dec. 30. The Holiday Bowl on Jan. 2 is also in play. USC has played in the Holiday Bowl four times in the last 12 years. It has never appeared in the Alamo Bowl.

—After a brutal loss to Notre Dame, USC women’s basketball faces a critical stretch ahead. The Trojans had a chance to win in South Bend with a layup after a frustrating fourth quarter, but missed it, and Hannah Hidalgo ended the game on the other end. They have four games between now and a Dec. 13 matchup with Connecticut at Galen Center, and they’ll need that time to iron things out. Kennedy Smith needs to be more consistent on offense, and the frontcourt remains a mystery. The next two weeks should help answer some pertinent questions.

Olympic sports spotlight

With two games left in its regular season slate, USC’s women’s volleyball team matched its season-high for wins under coach Brad Keller with its 24th victory on Saturday. It should surpass that mark this week.

It’s been a stellar season so far for the Trojans, who are tied for fourth in the Big Ten. The question now is just how far they can go in the postseason. Right now, according to ESPN’s college volleyball bracketology, USC is predicted to be a fourth seed.

In case you missed it

Plaschke: Lincoln Riley should be on hot seat after USC flops again in big game

No. 15 USC’s College Football Playoff hopes shattered in loss to No. 7 Oregon

No. 11 USC can’t protect double-digit lead in road loss to No. 24 Notre Dame

USC vs. Oregon: Lincoln Riley embraces pressure of playing for a playoff bid

How USC’s transfer portal approach has fueled its push to edge of playoff berth

Hot coaching commodity Lane Kiffin has a tough decision 12 years after USC fired him

What I’m watching this week

Will (Noah Schnapp) and Vecna (Jamie Campbell Bower) come face to face in Season 5 of “Stranger Things.”

(Netflix)

We’ve waited over three years, if you can believe it, for a new season of “Stranger Things.” So long that none of the kids in the show are even kids anymore. (Two of them have actually become rock stars in the meantime.)

But I’m one of those who have been eagerly awaiting the series conclusion, and finally, that day has come. We still only get Volume 1 from Netflix on Wednesday. But that should be enough to hold us off until late December, when the remaining episodes drop.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Last Tuesday, I asked my friend Mish if they’d like to skip our gym trip and instead drive into Angeles National Forest for a chance to view the northern lights.

We decided, for our health, to go to the gym. We arrived around 7:15 p.m., only to realize our gym was closing early because of Veterans Day. Divine intervention or dumb luck? Either way, we left, got our cameras and snacks and headed up Angeles Crest Highway.

We stepped out of the car about 8:45 p.m., and I started shouting a flurry of joyful expletives. The pink glow of the northern lights was visible to the naked eye, shining near Mt. Gleason.

The northern lights as seen from near Angeles Forest Highway on Veterans Day.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

This was my second time viewing the northern lights from the San Gabriel Mountains. Last May, my buddies and I were out celebrating a friend’s sobriety anniversary when my pal Machiko texted me that — somehow! — the northern lights were visible in dark places around L.A. We quickly left Chinatown and headed onto Angeles Crest Highway.

At first, around 10:50 p.m., we could only see a faint pink glow and only by using our phone cameras. By 11:30 p.m., we’d found a darker place in the forest to park, and our cameras picked up quite the light show.

From there, I quickly became enamored, similar to eclipse chasers, with how I could see the northern lights whenever possible from Southern California.

Below you’ll find my tips on how to do just that. I want you, dear Wilder, to witness the sheer awe that comes with realizing there is so much about our universe we remain blissfully unaware of — until suddenly it’s a brilliant burning pink right before us.

If you’re reading this and getting major FOMO, have no fear! We will likely have another opportunity to see the aurora near L.A. soon enough.

The northern lights illuminate the sky of the North Bay as seen from China Camp Beach in San Rafael last May.

(Tayfun Coskun / Anadolu via Getty Images)

The sun plays a major role in why we have auroras, and it turns out we’re in a season when the sun might be sending more our way.

I spoke to Delores Knipp, research professor in the Smead Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, who explained to me that the sun has an 11-year “solar cycle.”

The sun reached its solar maximum period last year, and as NASA noted last year, “The solar cycle is a natural cycle the Sun goes through as it transitions between low and high magnetic activity. Roughly every 11 years, at the height of the solar cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip — on Earth, that’d be like the North and South poles swapping places every decade — and the Sun transitions from being calm to an active and stormy state.”

Knipp said the sun now goes through a kind of relaxing period, during which the interactions of certain solar particles can create the most geomagnetic storms over a three- to four-year period. Good news? “We are about one year in,” Knipp said.

Why is that relevant to us? Because the aurora is “one manifestation of geomagnetic activity or geomagnetic storms,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And as I will explain below, the stronger the storm, the more likely it is that those of us in Southern California can see the aurora!

If you want to understand more about why auroras happen, consider checking out this presentation by Knipp, where she talks more about the science behind them — including historic auroras that really freaked out the public.

OK, let’s dive in. Here’s how I became an amateur aurora chaser, and you can too!

Mish, a friend of The Wild, sets up their camera near Angeles Forest Highway to capture the aurora visible from near L.A. on Veterans Day.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

1. Sign up for alerts

You can sign up for free updates from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to view its forecasts for upcoming geomagnetic storms and how intense they’re expected to be. (A simpler option is to view the predicted aurora viewline.)

2. Learn the data points

The first time a space weather alert lands in your inbox, you might have flashbacks to a high school science class where you sat puzzled, wondering if you could still graduate if you failed this class because science had always been your weakest subject. (Maybe that was just me.)

Regardless, in the NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast, you’ll notice a data table with the “Kp index forecast,” which is the planetary K-index and is used to measure the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Generally to be visible near L.A., the K-index needs to be at 8 or 9.

As Knipp explained to me, “When Kp goes up to 6, 7 and beyond, what that means is the auroral zone tends to extend from its quiet regions around the northern part of Norway and northern part of Canada. It can extend all the way to mid-latitudes … and in our case, the edge of it [on Nov. 11] might have been in the northern tier of the United States. Those of us who are kind of standing off to the equator-ward side can look up into the sky and still see the disturbances that are moving along the [Earth’s magnetic] field lines. And those disturbances are created by particles that are crashing into our atmosphere as they move along the field lines.”

You might also notice in NOAA’s alert a G-scale, ranging from G1 to G5. This is the rating used to gauge a geomagnetic storm’s potential effects on satellites, spacecraft and the power grid, among other things. Meanwhile, the K-index is more of an intensity rating scale.

I start to pay attention when I see forecasts mentioning a possible G3 storm. I keep an eye out as the forecast grows more detailed about whether the storm is expected to intensify and become a G4 storm. And I watch the K-index to see whether an 8 is expected.

Last week, at around 5:30 p.m. and 8 p.m., the Space Weather Prediction Center emailed alerts noting that the agency expected a three-hour window from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. PST where the K-index could reach 8. Lucky for my friend Mish and me, that’s when we arrived in the forest and found a place beyond the clouds to view the aurora.

3. Find a dark place with a northern view

You must drive beyond L.A.’s light-polluted skies to view the aurora.

There are many different websites dedicated to mapping light pollution. Last week, I found a north-facing turnout off Angeles Forest Highway that, per Dark Sky Map, was close to the “bright suburban sky” range on the Bortle scale, which stargazers and astrophotographers sometimes use to discern where to view celestial bodies.

Photographer Patrick Coyne posted to Instagram a video from Mormon Rock(s), about 12 miles east of Wrightwood in the San Bernardino National Forest, capturing a stunning pink aurora. Photographer Jason Anderson, whom I randomly met in the middle of the woods a few months ago, was among the luckiest, filming a deep red scene in Joshua Tree National Park.

Above the clouds and facing north, the lights from the aurora borealis were visible last May along Highway 2 in Angeles National Forest.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

4. Bring a camera, tripod and patience

I have a mobile phone (iPhone 15 Plus) that allows me, when in night mode, to adjust the shutter speed to 10 seconds. This essentially means the camera will take in as much light as possible within that 10-second time frame. The main image for this edition of The Wild was taken with my personal iPhone.

Mish brought their camera and tripod — while I used my iPhone and Canon DSLR — to photograph the aurora. We spent about an hour observing the aurora, and it seemed to pulse in intensity. Twice, it appeared brighter to the naked eye before becoming visible only on our cameras. By 10 p.m., the aurora had disappeared.

We headed back to L.A. hyper and eager for the next time the aurora was visible, with a goal to set up shop in the desert or some other dark corner of Southern California. Staring at the night sky has a way of inspiring you to dream bigger.

3 things to do

A young cyclist works on a bicycle at the CicLAvia Melrose event last year.

(Kirk Tsonos)

1. Watch for “Stranger Things” on a ride through L.A.
From 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday, Netflix and CicLAvia will host “Stranger Things 5 One Last Ride,” a special 4-mile open streets event where fans can bike, skate or walk down a car-free stretch of Melrose Avenue in celebration of the show’s final season. The free event will feature Melrose reimagined as Hawkins, the fictional town where the show is based, with photo ops, animations, live entertainment and more. Learn more at ciclavia.org.

2. Witness the warblers of Wilmington
Latino Outdoors Los Angeles and Communities for a Better Environment will host a community bird walk from 10 a.m. to noon Saturday in Wilmington. Guests will tour local resilience centers and walk through Banning Park. Register and sign a waiver at eventbrite.com.

3. Hike and help others near Pasadena
Nobody Hikes in L.A. and Walking Pasadena with host their 10th Will Hike for Food hike at 8:30 a.m. Friday along the Gabrielino trail near Pasadena. Hikers are encouraged to bring nonperishable food items to donate to Friends in Deed’s food pantry in Pasadena. Money will also be accepted for the organization, which provides food, hosts a winter shelter and builds relationships with unhoused people to ease them into housing and other services. Learn more at walkingpasadena.com.

The must-read

A family poses in early October near the west entrance sign of Joshua Tree National Park during the 43-day government shutdown. The park remained open to visitors despite the shutdown.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

If you visited Yosemite or Death Valley national parks during the 43-day government shutdown, you may have experienced more order than you expected. Trash cans were cleared. Bathrooms were cleaned. That’s because, as Times staff writers Lila Seidman and Alex Wigglesworth report, employees who greet visitors and those who work in maintenance and sanitation, law enforcement and emergency functions were kept on during the shutdown, a marked difference from the 2018-19 shutdown. A Death Valley ranger, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job, said resource damage was rampant then at numerous parks because the guidance “was, like, shutter your doors, skeleton crew, leave the park open.” Continuing to fund visitor services kept up a facade that all was well, but the government’s choice there speaks to a long-simmering fight over our national parks: whether to prioritize the guest experience or conservation more. During the longest shutdown in U.S. history, almost 9,300 of the park service’s total 14,500-member staff, or roughly 64%, were furloughed, many of whom work on their park’s conservation, research and education teams. For example, a firefighter at Joshua Tree National Park said there were once 30 people on the team that protects endangered desert tortoises and Joshua trees, monitors air quality and restores areas after a fire. During the shutdown, none were working regularly. There was one bright spot though: Officials deemed the feeding and monitoring of the area’s pupfish, a chubby little guppy (and one of the world’s rarest fish), essential during the shutdown, a ranger said, because they’re “this star animal of the park.”

Happy adventuring,

P.S.

The Wild is dark next week for Thanksgiving and will return Dec. 4. If you’d like to take a hike, I’d recommend my Wild article from last Thanksgiving outlining treks that make me feel grateful to live here. Or especially if you’re estranged from your family and not going to attend a Thanksgiving meal, consider soothing your soul with a waterfall hike (as long as weather allows). It’ll likely be less crowded at trailheads considering those out celebrating the holiday. Regardless of what you do, may you experience something outside that fills you with goodness and wonder!

For more insider tips on Southern California’s beaches, trails and parks, check out past editions of The Wild. And to view this newsletter in your browser, click here.