Updated

Caracas, August 28, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – US President Donald Trump has announced a major energy agreement with Venezuela to “more than double US oil reserves.”

“The US has just entered into the biggest oil deal in history with Venezuela,” he wrote on social media. “Working with highly respected [Venezuelan Acting President] Delcy Rodríguez, and through a partnership with private business, [the US] has secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves.”

Trump added that the purported agreement would lower US fuel prices “long into the future” while setting Venezuela “on a course toward tremendous success and great prosperity.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the reported deal “a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people” and claimed it would bring “nearly US $100 billion in private investment” to the Caribbean nation. Trump and Rubio disclosed no specifics about the arrangement.

Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez confirmed the “historic agreement” via a social media message on Friday night.

“I extend my deepest gratitude to Trump, Rubio, and the US government for their support in developing this agreement, which represents a historic milestone in US-Venezuela relations,” she wrote.

Rodríguez stated that the deal will involve private corporations developing 17 “strategic fields” with 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. She echoed Rubio’s $100 billion investment claim and pledged that the projects would yield $209 billion in tax revenues. According to the acting president, the announced agreement “ushers in a new era of growth and prosperity.”

The high-level negotiations were first reported by Axios on Thursday.

The Venezuelan Constitution establishes that all mineral and hydrocarbon resources are “inalienable public domain” goods. Transferring ownership of oil reserves would require a constitutional reform.

According to Reuters, the deal could take the form of a long-term lease, with the Trump administration then auctioning or allocating fields to select corporations. Bloomberg reported that the lease could be as long as 100 years.

The seventeen fields in question are said to include undeveloped extra-heavy crude projects in the Orinoco Oil Belt and mature light crude fields in Lake Maracaibo. The resulting supply would be “guaranteed” for the US as part of efforts to rein in rising fuel costs amid the ongoing standoff with Iran in the Persian Gulf.

Bloomberg additionally reported that Washington’s direct involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry could be conducted by the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) in partnership with Venezuelan oil mogul Alejandro Betancourt. The Biden administration created the OSC in 2022 to fund private sector initiatives deemed vital for US national security interests. 

Since the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the acting Rodríguez administration has fast-tracked a diplomatic rapprochement with Washington while also opening the country’s energy and mining sectors to Western companies. 

A new Hydrocarbon Law and associated regulations were drafted in consultation with oil executives and US officials. The reform slashed royalties and taxes and ceded control over operations and sales to private firms under joint venture or concession-type models. Caracas also acceded to foreign companies’ demands in allowing for legal disputes to be settled by international arbitration bodies.

The legislative overhaul replaced the 2001 Hydrocarbon Law approved by former President Hugo Chávez and subsequent decrees that established a leading role for the Venezuelan state in the energy sector, which in turn fueled the country’s economic and social progress in the 2000s.

The US Treasury has maintained wide-reaching sanctions in place while issuing licenses to hand-picked companies and barring the participation of enterprises from China, Iran, and Russia. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil revenues are presently deposited in a US Treasury account, with the disbursement timings and amounts left at Trump officials’ discretion.

On Thursday, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) amended eight sanctions waivers concerning oil, mining, and telecommunications. OFAC removed a requirement that contracts signed with Venezuelan state entities be drafted in accordance with US laws or jurisdiction. The agency stated that “investment-related reforms” by the acting Rodríguez government had made the clause unnecessary.

Venezuela’s investor-friendly regulatory environment has led to industry giants, including Chevron, Repsol, and Shell, striking new deals or renegotiating existing ones for crude and natural gas exploration. Companies with no energy track record such as Lionheart Capital and Crossover Energy are likewise set to take control of strategic oilfields.

Oil services company SLB, formerly Schlumberger, recently signed an agreement with PDVSA for reservoir studies and service provision. SLB has set the reactivation of 15 oil rigs in the South American country as a short-term priority.

According to Reuters, the multinational firm will also access prized data on Venezuela’s oilfields, from reservoir characterization to real-time output information. SLB allegedly seeks to “make Venezuela’s oil data reliable again.”

In another indication of Caracas’ dramatic diplomatic realignment with Washington, Venezuelan officials are reportedly mulling the possibility of exiting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Venezuela played a leading role in the creation of OPEC in 1960 as it sought to bring together Global South oil-producing nations to secure better and more stable oil prices in global markets. Former President Chávez also prioritized revamping OPEC after a prior “Oil Opening” under US-aligned governments had oriented the industry toward US interests and undermined the organization.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Philadelphia, USA.

[Updated on August 28 at 8.30 pm ET following Trump’s announcement.]

A U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III has made a highly unusual visit to Moscow today, landing at Vnukovo Airport after flying from Riga, Latvia, according to publicly available flight-tracking data. The purpose of the flight remains unclear for now. It does come as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has identified a potential opportunity for new U.S. ​mediation to help end the Russian war in Ukraine.

Flight-tracking data identified the C-17, operating under the callsign RCH4555, departing Riga at approximately 8:50 a.m. Moscow time and arriving at Vnukovo at around 10:04 a.m. Video posted to social media also shows the C-17 on approach to Vnukovo.

U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III strategic airlifter descending to land at the Vnukovo International Airport in Moscow on Tuesday morning.

The cameraman, likely sarcastically, comments: “we are under attack!” https://t.co/7EfvANBScW pic.twitter.com/dVItO5nAjn

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) August 25, 2026

RCH4555 had flown from Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey, to Joint Base Lindsey Graham (formerly Joint Base Charleston), South Carolina, on August 22. A day later, the aircraft touched down at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, before departing for Riga. The plane then continued to Moscow two days later.

Probably the first US C-17 in years seen over Russia few moments ago

Its itinerary over the past few days:

August 22: McGuire/Wrightstown → Charleston

August 23: Charleston → Joint Base Andrews

August 23: Andrews → Riga

August 25: Riga → Moscow-Vnukovo pic.twitter.com/Iedvuho8Gb

— Casus Belli (@casusbellii) August 25, 2026

There are unconfirmed reports, citing observers on the ground, that an aircraft that might have been a U.S. Air Force C-40B was also on the ground at Riga earlier today. The C-40B is a militarized version of the commercial Boeing 737-700 and is often used to shuttle high-ranking government and military leaders.

An observer in Riga, Latvia reported a white aircraft, likely a U.S. Air Force C-40B, parked near the C-17A Globemaster III that arrived in Moscow earlier this morning.

Notably, on the same day the C-17 departed Joint Base Andrews, a C-40B operating under callsign RCH790 also… https://t.co/LK7MVC4U9N pic.twitter.com/yTTsSBgYrR

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 25, 2026

The earlier stop at Joint Base Andrews is also notable. Situated just outside Washington, D.C., this is not simply an ordinary transport base. It is the home of the 89th Airlift Wing, which operates the Air Force’s Special Air Mission (SAM) fleet and supports senior U.S. officials and foreign dignitaries. The wing’s mission includes providing airlift for the president, vice president, senior executive staff, high-ranking government officials, and foreign dignitaries.

Joint Base Andrews is also where the Air Force’s Roll-On Conference Capsules (ROCC) are kept. The Air Force deploys ROCCs onboard certain C-17s to give senior leaders a secure, quiet place to conduct business in the middle of a noisy, often-crowded cargo aircraft. They serve as a mobile SCIF, office, and apartment all in one. Their extensive communications include multiple options for unsecured and secure voice, data, and video teleconferencing. These capsules replaced the previous Silver Bullet Command and Control Module, a converted Airstream trailer, which was phased out in recent years for reasons you can read more about here.

The C-17 is otherwise well-equipped for carrying high-ranking officials on overseas trips, including into potentially hostile areas. The planes have a defensive suite that includes multiple types of expendable decoys and the laser-based Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasure System (LAIRCM).

The Globemaster III’s primary mission is as a strategic airlifter, and it is typically used for transporting personnel, equipment, and other cargo. With those capabilities, the aircraft are also regularly used to bring advance parties to countries ahead of major state and other diplomatic visits. For presidential visits, this can even include Marine One helicopters and vehicles for the official motorcade.

The presence of an active-duty U.S. military transport aircraft in the Russian capital is highly unusual and immediately attracted attention from open-source intelligence and aviation observers.

Theories on today’s highly unusual movement of a US military aircraft to Moscow Vnukovo airport
1. Prisoner swap
2. Mission by senior intelligence official to warn against escalation by Russia, eg in Baltics
3. New diplomatic opening pic.twitter.com/OhqlHYQeKs

— Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) August 25, 2026

At this stage, the purpose of the Moscow flight and what the aircraft carried are not publicly confirmed. We have reached out to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Air Mobility Command, and the U.S. Air Forces in Europe for more details about the mission. The Office of the Secretary of Defense directed us to contact the Air Force.

Nevertheless, any kind of U.S. military aircraft traveling from the Washington area via Riga and then into Moscow represents an exceptionally unusual movement based on current relations between Moscow and the West.

Washington and Moscow have maintained official diplomatic channels despite the broader deterioration in relations against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Since U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term in 2025, ties between the two countries have both warmed and cooled again at times. Trump notably met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025. This was the first summit between leaders of the two nations since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

More recent U.S.-mediated peace efforts have largely stalled in recent months, including when Ukraine refused Russian demands to cede more territory. However, over the weekend, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky did say he saw a window for new diplomatic efforts, at least to reach a ceasefire until the end of next summer. He has also drafted ‌a page of ideas with U.S. and European officials to be presented to Moscow, according to Reuters.

For its part, Moscow has continued to signal that it is prepared to engage with Washington, while U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been discussed as potential participants in further talks. Witkoff and Kushner were last in Moscow in ​January.

There have also been reports that FBI Director Kash Patel is planning to visit Russia later this year, although such a trip is not thought to be expected until mid-October.

This is very much a developing story, and we will watch with interest to see when the C-17 departs Moscow, its destination, and any other clues as to the purpose of this mission.

Update, 4:10 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

Russkaya Pravda reports that the Russian government says it has no information about the C-17 flight, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russian officials had no meetings scheduled this week with representatives of the U.S. administration.

Other Russian media outlets reported that this is the first time that a U.S. Air Force C-17 had arrived in Moscow since 2017. Kommersant, meanwhile, noted that another U.S. military aircraft — a Gulfstream C-37B — landed at Vnukovo in February 2025 after departing from Andrews Air Force Base.

That earlier flight carried Russian citizen Alexander Vinnik after his release from a U.S. prison. Vinnik returned to Russia as part of a prisoner exchange that also involved American citizen Marc Fogel.

Potentially, the flight today could be related to a prisoner exchange, although a C-17 would be an unsual choice for this.

Unconfirmed reports out of Russia suggest the C-17 may have arrived in connection with American citizen Charles Wayne Zimmerman, who was sentenced to five years in prison in January after Russian authorities found weapons and ammunition aboard his yacht.

Zimmerman sailed from the U.S. to Sochi on June 19, 2025, reportedly to meet a Russian woman he had met online. He pleaded guilty, saying he was unfamiliar with Russian law and believed weapons kept aboard his yacht for self-defense were permitted.

A source cited by Ostorozhno Media said Zimmerman signed a clemency petition at his prison this summer, which was then sent to Moscow.

For now, there is no official confirmation linking the American aircraft’s arrival to Zimmerman.

A convoy of cars with U.S. diplomatic license plates has been spotted in the capital of the Russian Federation.

Update, 4:15 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

A remarkable capture of the arrival of the C-17A by an individual on the ground confirms beyond a doubt the location. In the foreground is the distinctive Tupolev Tu-104B jetliner, registration CCCP-42507, that is preserved as a gate-guard monument outside Vnukovo International Airport in Moscow.

Update, 4:20 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

A video being shared on social media shows what is claimed to be a motorcade with American diplomatic license plates spotted on the streets of Moscow today, with a local police escort.

Russian media report that a motorcade with American diplomatic license plates was spotted on the streets of Moscow following reports that a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster III had landed at Vnukovo Airport. https://t.co/EiKsKdnu6t pic.twitter.com/Hzrppj9fFy

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 25, 2026

Update, 4:30 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

Citing multiple unnamed sources, CBS reports that the C-17 brought CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow for undisclosed meetings. This would be his first known trip to Russia as CIA director, though he has maintained contact with Russian intelligence counterparts.

NEW: CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow today aboard a US Air Force C-17 for meetings, according to CBS News citing multiple sources.

The Kremlin said it had “no information” about the visit.

No details on who Ratcliffe met or the agenda. https://t.co/Y14uaWEP2H

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 25, 2026

Update, 4:15 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

CNN is also now reporting that CIA Director Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow overnight to meet with Russian officials, citing a U.S. official familiar with his travel. The same official declined to share the substance of the meetings or the topics set to be discussed.

If I had to wager, I’d say Ratcliffe is in Moscow to warn about Russian escalation against Europe/NATO. Linked to U.S. intelligence shared with Poles, Balts and Scandinavians, and comes amid a noticeable uptick in suspected GRU sabotage operations and Russian drone activity. See…

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 25, 2026

Update, 4:45 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

The Financial Times now reports that the Trump administration last week requested that Kyiv not strike Moscow, St. Petersburg, and northern regions of Russia with its long-range missiles and drones on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week. This was due to Washington planning to end an aircraft carrying a senior-level official to the Russian capital, according to people familiar with the request.

Scoop @FT: Trump administration officials last week requested that Kyiv not strike Moscow, St Petersburg and nothern regions of Russia with its long range missiles and drones on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday when the US would send a plane carrying a senior-level official to the…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 25, 2026

Update, 8:45 p.m., Central European Time (CET) –

The Wall Street Journal now reports the possibility that CIA Director Ratcliffe was in Moscow to dissuade Russia from mobilizing and launching an attack on Europe. Given the intense NATO intelligence-gathering activity along the eastern flank over the past week, it seems the situation is indeed quite tense.

The U.S. has collected intelligence showing Russia’s early preparations for a possible military mobilization in Ukraine and plans for testing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s resolve, the WSJ has reported.

Flight-tracking data identifies the C-17, again operating under the callsign RCH4555, now departing Moscow for Riga.

RCH4555, a U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster lll which landed in Moscow early today carrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe for a series of high-level meetings with Russian officials, has just departed Moscow bound for Riga, Latvia. pic.twitter.com/9I4AG8dcA9

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 25, 2026

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Big news has broken out of the Tailhook Association’s convention in Reno, Nevada this weekend. The Navy has disclosed the existence of an all-new very long-range air-to-air missile, the AIM-424 “Malice.” An image released by the Navy taken last April shows a Super Hornet from Navy Air Test And Evaluation Squadron 23 (VX-23) loaded with four of the weapons. Another image shows the missile installed in an F-35C’s weapons bay.

The news of the new missile was first reported by our friends Brian Everstine and Steve Trimble over at Aviation Week.

The AIM-424 Long Range Air-to-Air Missile (LRAAM), which is already deep in testing, is meant to arm F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, F-35C Joint Strike Fighters and the upcoming F/A-XX next-generation naval fighter. The missile is clearly larger and significantly farther-reaching than the long-serving AIM-120 AMRAAM and the new AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, which shares the AIM-120’s general mold-line. It isn’t known where Malice slots in next to the very far-reaching AIM-174B “Gunslinger,” which was adapted from the Navy’s surface-launched SM-6. According to Aviation Week, the missile is a two-stage design, which should result in extreme range and very high-speed.

The Pentagon has been interested in multi-stage air-to-air missiles for years and is now floating the goal of developing extreme-range air-to-air weapons that can reach out to the 1,000-mile mark in the years to come. This number is seen as critical to surviving future enemy anti-access capabilities of equal reach and to take advantage of very long-distance kill chains that will dominate future combat.

In addition, closing the air-to-air missile gap, specifically with China, and attempting to leap significantly in front of the PLA’s capabilities in this regard, has become a top priority for the Pentagon. A multitude of classified programs to develop new and more capable air-to-air missiles have been well underway and now we are seeing yet another example of this work in the form of Malice. One of these secretive programs, the Long-Range Engagement Weapon (LREW,), date back at least a decade, which also point to the development of multi-stage air-to-air weapons.

While we don’t know for certain the manufacturer that built this weapon or if this is its only configuration,

It also isn’t clear if this new weapon has other secondary modes, such as anti-ballistic missile and/or air-to-surface capabilities, nor what types of flying targets it is intended to destroy. For instance, is it capable of hitting maneuverable fighters at extreme distances as well as lumbering force multiplying support aircraft? Again, we don’t know at this time.

We will be doing additional analysis reporting on this weapon soon, stay tuned.

Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com

UPDATE:

We now have a specifications page from the Navy. The highlights include a weight of 1500 pounds (roughly three times that of an AIM-120), and a range in excess of 250NM. Keep in mind that these figures may be intentionally skewed for counter-intelligence purposes, as is often the case, in particular the range figure. Regardless, this weapon possibly sits in between the AIM-260 and the AIM-174B Gunslinger in terms of range, and closer to the latter. We also know the missile is built by Raytheon.

The product page reads:

The Department of Navy is developing the Air Intercept Missile (AIM)-424 Long Range Air to Air Missile (LRAAM), a next-generation missile intended to strengthen fleet defense and maintain a decisive air domain overmatch against advanced threats. Also known as Malice, LRAAM directly supports the Department’s contribution to integrated deterrence by increasing range, lethality, and combat effectiveness for Marine and Naval aviation forces that are defending our fleets, our interests, and our homeland.

LRAAM sustains the Department’s first look, first shot, first kill advantage by providing our aviators greater reach, greater survivability, and greater tactical flexibility in the air-to-air fight. Built for 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th generation platforms, LRAAM is designed for the air wing of today and the future.

Specifications

Primary Function: Air-to-Air Missile

Contractor: Raytheon

Propulsion: Solid-propellant rocket motor

Length: 13.5 feet (4.11 meters)

Diameter: 13.5 inches (0.34 meters)

Wingspan: 26.2 inches (0.67 meters)

Weight: 1500 pounds (680.4 kg)

Range: In excess of 250 nm (463 km)

Warhead: Blast fragmentation

*Author’s note, similarities of the design to a Boeing concept was removed due to the manufacturer being disclosed by the Navy

We now have our first look at the Ancillary Surface Craft (ASC), a new medium landing craft for the U.S. Marine Corps. Australia-headquartered firm Birdon announced last year that it would be supplying two of these vessels to the Marines to help the service further refine its concepts for future distributed island-hopping operations.

The Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory (MCWL) released pictures yesterday of what appears to be the first ASC, based on the hull number (ASC-1), in Bayou La Batre, Alabama. The photographs of the vessel, also sometimes referred to as the Ancillary Surface Connector, were taken last week during a distinguished visitor day event. Marine Corps personnel, as well as representatives from the Australian Army and industry, were in attendance.

It is unclear whether or not the Marines have formally taken delivery of ASC-1 and when the second example might be set to arrive. TWZ has reached out to the Marines and Birdon for more information.

“The [distinguished visitor day] event provided an opportunity for senior leaders, Marines, allied partners and industry personnel to observe the ASC’s capabilities and discuss its potential to support distributed maritime operations and sustainment in contested littoral environments,” according to the caption accompanying one of the pictures. “The ASC is being developed through U.S.-Australian industry collaboration to support experimentation and inform future amphibious modernization.”

“The ASC is a significant step towards achieving a capability organic to the Marine Corps for maneuver in the littorals without reliance on large high value Naval assets,” it continues. “This craft, coupled with smaller landing craft, will demonstrate the capability needed by the Corps to maneuver medium, light, and ultra-light tactical vehicles from shore-to-shore and distribute all classes of supply to disbursed forces in archipelagic regions.”

The overall design of the vessel reflects what was seen in a rendering that Birdon released last year when it first announced that it would be supplying the two ASCs to the Marines. However, that rendering did show the vessel with at least two remote weapon stations armed with 30mm automatic cannons, at least one .50 caliber M2 machine gun on a traditional deck mount, and an angular mast structure on top of the pilot house, features that are not present in the images that have now been released of ASC-1.

There is a pole-like mast, as well as rotating maritime navigation radar and what looks to be a searchlight, on top of ASC-1’s pilot house. The actual vessel also has truncated catwalks around the pilot house, as well as an additional boxy structure with ventilation slats on top, compared to what is depicted in the rendering. It is very possible that Marine ASCs could gain additional features as time goes on.

Birdon has previously said that the ASC can carry up to 40 troops and 54 tons of cargo in its open main deck area. The vessel is also reportedly 150 feet long and 30 feet across, with a bow ramp that drops down for loading and unloading right onto a beach.

“To ensure safe landings on uncharted beaches, Birdon worked with a specialist sonar company to develop and integrate an advanced forward-looking sonar system, allowing operators to detect obstacles and assess beach gradients well ahead of the vessel,” the company also said of the ASC in a press release last year. “The vessel is designed to beach and de-beach in gradients significantly shallower than existing landing craft can support, providing enhanced, safe amphibious operations capability.”

“Birdon’s ASC design also features a cutting-edge fuel delivery and transfer system that allows for efficient vessel-to-vessel or vessel-to-land fuel transfer, supporting extended operational range and flexibility in challenging environments,” the release added.

The ASC is broadly in line, at least in terms of general dimensions, with other existing medium landing craft designs on the market globally. As a point of comparison, the new Landing Craft Utility (LCU) 1700s that the Navy is in the process of acquiring from Austal are around 139 feet long and 31 feet wide, but have a higher stated payload capacity (350 combat-equipped troops or 170 tons of cargo). Birdon itself is also developing a new Landing Craft Medium (LC-M) for the Australian armed forces, renderings of which show a similar, but larger design compared to the ASC.

As noted, the Marines’ stated plan is to use the two ASCs to help with the development of its still-evolving expeditionary and distributed concepts of operations, collectively referred to as Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO). A central aspect of EABO is to rapidly position and reposition relatively small units between what could easily be far-flung forward locations, especially small islands dotted across parts of the Pacific. These so-called ‘stand-in forces’ would be readily deployable as a deterrent ahead of a potential conflict, and then be better placed to act if needed. The distributed nature of the EABO concept would also create targeting challenges for opponents and, by extension, reduce the vulnerability of friendly forces.

As TWZ wrote after Birdon’s initial announcement about the ASC in May 2025:

“Not having to rely on large traditional Navy amphibious warfare ships to conduct these maneuvers in littoral environments, where established port facilities are also likely to be absent, is essential to the EABO concept. Depending on the exact distribution of Marine forces and the distance between operating locations in a particular area, vessels like the ASC-M could be used to move personnel and materiel between sites and/or act as ‘connectors’ between larger ships and the shore.”

“For years now, the Marines have also been working with the Navy on plans for the latter service to acquire a fleet of at least 18 and up to 35 Medium Landing Ships, or LSMs, to support the EABO construct. However, concerns about the costs of prospective designs and other issues have continually pushed back the LSM program schedule, with the first of those vessels now not set to arrive until the end of the decade at the earliest.”

In December 2025, the Navy did announce that it had selected Dutch shipbuilder Damen’s LST-100 design to be the basis of a new class of LSMs, and that it was hoping to accelerate the delivery schedule for those ships. However, the first LSM is still only now scheduled to arrive in 2029. At that time, the Navy also told us it was planning to buy at least one LSM of a separate design from Bollinger Shipyards, which could be based on the Israeli Logistics Support Vessel (ILSV) developed for Israel. The ISLV is itself a derivative of the open-ocean-optimized subclass of the General Frank S. Besson class Logistics Support Vessel (LSV) now in service with the U.S. Army as part of its obscure watercraft fleet, which you can learn more about here.

There may be a possibility for the Marine Corps to acquire more ASCs, or a further evolution of the design, depending on how experimentation with the initial examples proceeds. The partnership with Australia on this effort also underscores the potential for that country, as well as other U.S. allies and partners, to further leverage this work.

In 2024, Birdon announced another deal to provide a heavy landing craft, called the H260, based on a design the company had already been working on for the Australian military, to the Marines, at least for testing and evaluation. The current status of that effort is unclear. The Marines have already been using chartered stern-landing ships for years now to inform the LSM program and otherwise help refine littoral logistics requirements in support of EABO.

Vessels like the ASC and the LSM are just some of the components the Marines envision as supporting the logistics ecosystem necessary to enable its future distributed operations. The service is also acquiring a new family of cargo-carrying uncrewed aerial vehicles, as well as small uncrewed surface vessels, as part of those plans.

The first new ASC for the Marines has now been built, if not formally delivered, and will only help the surface further prove out its expeditionary and distributed operations vision.

Update: 1:02 PM ET –

The U.S. Marine Corps has confirmed the “technical acceptance” of the first ASC.

“Technical specifications validated during the acceptance process highlight the craft’s exceptional ruggedness and operational utility. Engineered for demanding ocean transits, the ASC is fully operational in Sea State 5 and designed to survive extreme conditions up to Sea State 7,” according to a release from the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory. “To ensure safe navigation through uncharted, very shallow littoral waters, the craft is equipped with advanced forward-looking sonar that enables maneuverability across the battlespace. Furthermore, it can transport up to 46 tons of cargo and 40 combat-loaded Marines while executing vital shore-to-shore maneuver, mobility, and sustainment.”

The release also reiterates that the ASC represents a capability that would be complementary to the future LSMs, using its “very shallow draft to deliver logistical support to the ‘last tactical mile’ into landing sites beyond the reach of larger vessels, including shallow-gradient, unimproved, and unsurveyed shorelines where standoff would otherwise leave cargo stranded offshore.” ASC-type vessels and LSMs together will “give a Stand-in Force a route from an intermediate staging base to the beach without dependence on a port, a pier, or a causeway.”

“To support Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO), our forces must remain highly mobile and sustained without relying on fixed, vulnerable ports,” Col. Kenny Jones, Science and Technology Division Director at the MCWL, said in a statement. “This prototype allows MCWL to immediately execute hands-on experimentation, test tactical concepts, and put real hardware in the hands of Marines. By exploring the ASC’s traditional bow-first beaching physics alongside other experimental platforms, we are actively reducing programmatic risk and perfecting the requirements for the future naval fleet.”

“Following the technical acceptance of the ASC, the craft now moves into limited technical assessments (LTA) with Birdon America craft masters and engineers partnered with Australian Army crewing support and Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory oversight and assessments,” the MCWL release adds. “Initially, the craft will be operated by a hybrid crew pairing Marines with seasoned contracted mariners. This approach ensures that American service members are thoroughly trained as the Marine Corps prepares for an expanded role in the independent operation of small surface craft.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Caracas, August 11, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Venezuelan government led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is advancing diplomatic normalization with Israel after 17 years of severed relations.

In statements published on Tuesday, the Venezuelan and Israeli foreign ministries announced that, following “high-level talks,” the two countries would continue “bilateral technical cooperation” amid “recovery efforts” related to the June 24 double earthquake in the Caribbean nation.

“The two countries have also agreed to establish a coordination mechanism to provide consular services to their citizens residing in the other country,” the communiqués read.

Caracas additionally underlined that the ties between Israel and the Venezuelan Jewish community “constitute an important and historic friendship bridge between both countries.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar hailed the renewal of consular relations as “good news.” He added that the decision was agreed to in “conversations” with Venezuelan counterpart Félix Plasencia, creating “an official coordination channel” for the first time since 2009.

The announcement also followed a meeting Sunday between Plasencia and Orthodox Rabbi Isaac Cohen in which the latter formally requested that Venezuela reestablish diplomatic ties with Israel.

According to the Foreign Ministry, Cohen delivered a letter addressed to Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, arguing that normalizing relations with Tel Aviv is necessary to “tend to the needs of the Jewish community” in Venezuela.

Venezuela’s top diplomat thanked Cohen, on behalf of the Rodríguez administration and the Venezuelan people, for Israeli “assistance” following the June 24 double earthquake.

Cohen, a rabbi from the Venezuelan Jewish Association (AIV), was reportedly one of the intermediaries for the arrival of an Israeli diplomatic and military mission one week after the earthquake. The delegation included IDF officers and weapons contractors, while several Tel Aviv-aligned organizations likewise deployed on-the-ground teams.

Rodríguez held multiple meetings with the Israeli team, praising its members as “highly trained and professional” and thanking them for their work. IDF spokesman Roni Kaplan stated that the Israeli team had created a “dashboard” for Venezuelan authorities to evaluate damaged buildings, while Brigadier General Elad Edri was pictured presenting a “Project for Future Reconstruction” slideshow.

The Israeli mission has sparked growing protests, with Venezuelan popular movements reaffirming support for Palestine, condemning the genocide in Gaza and Lebanon, and burning Israeli flags.

Following the latest decision to deepen the engagement with Tel Aviv, the Venezuelan Movement in Solidarity with Palestine Al Awda issued a statement rejecting “normalization with the genocidal state of Israel.”

“We reject the use of ‘cooperation’ rhetoric to cover for barbarism and apartheid. Diplomacy cannot be used to whitewash crimes against humanity,” the text read.

Similarly, the International Platform in Solidarity with the Palestinian Cause argued that it was “unacceptable and unjustifiable” to strengthen relations “with a government formally accused of genocide.”

“We warn that reestablishing ties with [Israel] amounts to validating its crimes, in Palestine and all over the world, and becoming complicit before history,” its communiqué stated.

Former President Hugo Chávez severed ties with Israel in 2009, fiercely denouncing the US ally for genocide and demonstrating unwavering support for the Palestinian cause. His stance was maintained by Maduro, who endorsed South Africa’s activation of the Genocide Convention against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2024.

Following the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of Maduro, Rodríguez fast-tracked a diplomatic rapprochement with Washington alongside a broader radical shift in Caracas’ geopolitical alignment. 

Apart from re-engagement with Israel, the Venezuelan government is also reestablishing ties with far-right US allies in Latin America, including Chile, Peru, and the Dominican Republic, while distancing itself from historic partners in Havana and Tehran. During the recent US-Israel war against Iran, Caracas offered no backing for Tehran, instead voicing “solidarity” with US Gulf allies such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

[Updated on August 11]

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Philadelphia, USA.

Details are still limited, but a Kratos Valkyrie drone in a “test configuration” has crashed at the U.S. Army’s Dugway Proving Ground in Utah.

“A Kratos test configuration of Valkyrie experienced a mishap following takeoff from a test-range runway on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. This was a Kratos internally funded R&D event, part of continually adding configurations and capabilities,” according to a statement Kratos provided to TWZ. “No one was injured in the incident. As safety is our top priority, flight test operations for this system have been paused temporarily in an abundance of caution while we investigate the cause of the incident. Kratos has additional test systems ready once the investigation is complete.”

In response to our follow-up questions, Kratos declined to provide more information about the configuration of the drone. The statement’s mention of “takeoff from a test-range runway” would point to one of two versions of the Valkyrie the company has been developing capable of getting airborne from traditional runways, which we will come back to in a moment.

An installation spokesperson at Dugway separately confirmed to TWZ that an unspecified drone had crashed yesterday at around 8:00 AM local time. The uncrewed aircraft, which was not owned or operated by the U.S. military, went down shortly after takeoff for reasons that are still unknown. There were no casualties or damage to buildings as a result. When asked specifically, base officials had declined to say whether or not the drone was a Valkyrie.

Dugway’s Michael Army Airfield is a major hub for uncrewed aircraft testing, both by the U.S. military and private companies. Dugway also supports a wide range of other research and development and test and evaluation activities, with a heavy focus on defense against chemical and biological warfare threats.

Versions of the Valkyrie have been flying since 2019, with the U.S. Air Force being the first known operator of the type. The drone, also known as the XQ-58, was originally designed for rocket-assisted takeoffs via static launchers, and then recovery via parachute. Kratos subsequently developed a special launch trolley enabling takeoffs from traditional runways. In August 2024, the company announced plans for a new variant with built-in landing gear, also known as the Conventional Takeoff and Landing (CTOL) type, and said they hoped to see a first flight “soon.” The CTOL drones will still be capable of being launched via rocket.

Back in January, Kratos told TWZ that the target timeframe for a first flight of the CTOL Valkyrie had moved to early 2026. At that time, the company also confirmed that this version of Valkyrie, sometimes referred to as the MQ-58B, was being developed in part for the U.S. Marine Corps. The Marines are acquiring these drones under the Marine Air-Ground Task Force Uncrewed Expeditionary Tactical Aircraft (MUX TACAIR) Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. The service is hoping to take delivery of its first MQ-58s in 2029. The service has already been laying the groundwork for its future CCA fleets in with XQ-58 variants of the Valkyrie.

Kratos has seen growing interest in the Valkyrie family globally in recent years. This includes a partnership with Airbus on a version of the stealthy XQ-58 Valkyrie drone for the German Luftwaffe.

More remains to be learned about the crash at Dugway and how it might affect ongoing work on the Valkyrie family.

Update: 6:25 PM ET –

TWZ has now had a chance to talk to Steve Fendley, President of Kratos’ Unmanned Systems Division, in light of yesterday’s crash.

“I can’t go into detail on the exact configuration because, of course, that’s related to the investigation and what we will dig into,” Fendley told us. “So that basically would be potentially affecting the investigation. The investigation goes through everything that occurs leading up to doing any kind of a test.”

“We push the envelope across all of our system types,” he added. “The other thing I can say is we are constantly increasing the capability of the system, both for what we think it needs to be, and in other cases to satisfy what a particular customer may want to do to satisfy a certain mission.”

“So we’re doing all of those things, and the kind of Silicon Valley approach, the more modern test approach for things is you accelerate quickly, you reduce risk where you can you experience failures here and there, you learn from those failures and you move forward,” he continued. “Ideally, with that process, over time, what you do is – what you ultimately develop, achieve, and can move forward with is much faster than the I’m going to call it the legacy traditional approach, which has you know little or no tolerance for any missteps.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed to retaliate for Iran’s surprise attack on U.S. forces in Jordan launched Tuesday. His comments came a day after fighting in the region erupted anew after a several-day pause in U.S.-Iranian tit-for-tat actions. After the Iranian barrage, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia hit Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq. That was in response for previous strikes from Iraq on U.S. and Saudi assets. Meanwhile, the Houthis are reportedly considering imposing a toll on Bab al-Mandeb Strait transits, adding to the region’s heightened tensions.

“We’re going to beat the fucking shit out of them,” Fox News reporter Troy Yingst says the president told him this morning, referring to Iran. “We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”

Yingst also said Trump told him that “U.S. forces had just minutes to shoot down these incoming Iranian ballistic missiles. The president says he has reviewed video of the shootdown, and it was U.S. forces conducting this operation to defend that area. He said it was real time; they were calling out coordinates and ensuring that none of this incoming Iranian fire got through.”

“In terms of possible talks with the Iranian regime, the president says ‘we’re going to let them keep talking,’” Yingst added. “…those talks are taking place as we speak behind the scenes.”

On Tuesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East,” U.S. Central Command stated on X. “All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.”

The attack began at 5:45 p.m. ET, according to CENTCOM.

The official Iranian Press TV media outlet released video it claims showed a missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (MSAB) in Jordan. As we have pointed out in the past, the base has been frequently targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Three U.S. Army soldiers were killed in an attack there on July 17.

Trump also addressed the combined U.S.-Saudi strike on Iraqi militias linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The action appears to marke the first publicly known instance of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia joining forces to carry out attacks in this conflict.

The president “says those strikes were coordinated with the Iraqi government,” Yingst explained. “He called these Iran-backed militias a cancer on the world, and says he is considering additional warnings against Iranian proxies and their link to the Iranian regime.”

Hours before Trump spoke with Yingst, Iraqi militia groups condemned the action.

Harakat al-Nujaba (HaN), an armed group in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), said those would be avenged, Al Jazeera reported. The PMF said at least 20 of its members were killed and 32 wounded in the U.S.-Saudi airstrikes, which took place across Iraq.

In a statement, HaN demanded the expulsion of U.S. forces from the country, saying their continued presence “has become an imminent threat to the country’s security and stability,” the outlet added. The group also called for an end to cooperation with Saudi Arabia and for the deployment of advanced air defense systems and threatened retaliatory attacks against U.S. and Saudi interests.

Prominent Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militia Al-Nujaba says it will not allow the U.S. and Saudi Arabia “to defile Iraqi soil without exacting a heavy price from them,” following joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq overnight. https://t.co/r9euaiH60u

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) July 29, 2026

Meanwhile, influential Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr urged the IRGC and allied armed groups to stop launching attacks from Iraq.

“Since this holy land was not a launching point for bombing the Islamic Republic, then our brothers in the Revolutionary Guard must not bomb our independent and holy lands,” al-Sadr posted on X. “Likewise, the rogue militias must not give our brothers in the Gulf Arab states a pretext to target our holy land.”

“Everyone must embrace the spirit of brotherhood and peace and not be drawn into the schemes of the Zionist-American enemy to drag brothers into fighting and conflict,” the cleric added. “While I condemn the targeting of the holy Iraqi lands by all countries and parties, and I condemn the shameless actions of the militias to drag Iraq into a pointless war, I call upon the Iraqi government to establish security, enforce sovereignty, and work diligently for the safety of the Iraqi people and their holy sites, and not to be drawn into the abhorrent sectarian myths.”

CENTCOM on Tuesday said its forces, along with the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces, “conducted precision strikes in Iraq, July 28, against Iran-aligned terrorists that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed to attack U.S. forces and Saudi energy infrastructure.”

“U.S. and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours. The unwarranted attacks against U.S. forces were not successful,” CENTCOM added. “From February through April 2026, there were more than 600 attempted attacks on U.S. citizens and facilities by Iran-aligned terrorist militias in Iraq. The IRGC and its terrorist proxies must cease these attacks to avoid further U.S. military response.”

A U.S. official told TWZ Tuesday night that the combined U.S.-Saudi attacks came after the Iranian barrage.

“To be clear, the IRGC-directed attacks at our forces and our Saudi partners since over the weekend came without any provocation,” the official added. “This is a clear message that we will not let those attempts go unanswered.”

U.S. troops are adding to the danger they face by posting cellphone videos of attacks online, CENTCOM commander Adm. Cooper warned, according to Reuters. The command is also considering having some personnel surrender their phones, the outlet added.

Cooper, in a previously unreported letter, “said Iran was benefiting from being able to see the success or failure of its strikes in near real-time by searching news reports or online posts by journalists referencing ‘reactions, photos, and footage from the cellphones of our troops,’” Reuters stated.

The CENTCOM commander appeared to reference the following video in his letter, Reuters suggested.

“The direct, unavoidable cost of this open-source intelligence could be measured ​in the lives of American service members and civilian residents in targeted Gulf countries,” Cooper wrote in his July 28 letter, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters.

He ​called on troops to “redouble our focus on operational security,” without prescribing specific steps in the memo,” the news organization further noted.

“Admiral Cooper’s top priority is the well-being and protection of over 50,000 American service members operating in the Middle East,” CENTCOM spokesman Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins told TWZ in response to our questions about the letter. “His guidance to troops about operational security reinforces this priority.”

Cooper’s letter follows moves by U.S. satellite companies like Vantor and Planet Labs to delay posting imagery from the region out of similar concerns about operational security.

Cooper’s memo underscores the mounting tensions between real-time news reporting on the war, often aided ⁠by satellite imagery and first-person accounts, and the desire by the U.S. military to restrict any information that could aid Iran as it tries to kill and wound U.S.… https://t.co/0OBN2o1rtg

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) July 29, 2026

Amid the renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, the Houthi rebels of Yemen are considering imposing fees on ships transiting the Red Sea, according to Reuters. The move follows the group’s imposition of a blockade on Saudi ships and its firing on Saudi vessels. It mirrors a similar effort Iran is trying to impose on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Houthis were looking into imposing fees on most traffic through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb [BAM] gateway,” Reuters noted, citing sources. The narrow waterway, between Yemen and Djibouti, links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. “No timeframe was given ​at this stage for implementation,” the sources added.

The Houthis’ media office did not respond to a request for comment.

July 29 (Reuters) – Yemen’s Houthi group is considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, a week after declaring a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, regional sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

— Tala Ramadan (@TalaRamadan) July 29, 2026

As we have frequently detailed, Houthi actions in the BAM threaten to add far greater pressure on oil exports from the Middle East, already drastically affected by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. The Yemeni rebel group has already expanded its target set, hitting oil terminals and infrastructure Saudi Arabia is using to pump supplies to tankers in the Red Sea. The kingdom has diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through pipelines to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea in an effort to minimize the energy shortages due to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Even with the BAM closed, oil exports could still head to the West, via the Suez Canal. But if the infrastructure used to convey these energy products is put out of action, the consequences could be even more severe, with far less or even no energy supplies from Saudi Arabia moving out of the Red Sea. The closing of the BAM, and the possible imposition of tolls, also raises the specter of the U.S. having to get as involved as it did during the previous Houthi campaign against shipping that ended last September, which could pull resources away from Iranian-focused operations.

Despite the increased risks, transits through both straits are trending upward, according to the Kpler risk management firm.

“Daily monitoring shows stronger transit volumes across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, with 12 and 41 confirmed crossings respectively on 28 July,” Kpler noted on X. “Yet higher traffic should not be mistaken for lower risk. Hormuz routing remains concentrated outside traditional traffic separation patterns, while Bab el-Mandeb continues to present elevated operational and compliance challenges through dark transits, sanctioned vessels and shadow fleet movements.”

“With 62 confirmed maritime security incidents recorded by the IMO as of 27 July and geopolitical tensions still unresolved, vessel behavior remains a more meaningful indicator than crossing volumes alone,” Kpler added. “For operators and markets alike, transparency, routing choices and emerging disruptions remain the key signals to watch over the coming days.”

Traffic rises, risks persist

Daily monitoring shows stronger transit volumes across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, with 12 and 41 confirmed crossings respectively on 28 July. Yet higher traffic should not be mistaken for lower risk. Hormuz routing remains concentrated… pic.twitter.com/fwUxZyUaf8

— Kpler (@Kpler) July 29, 2026

In the wake of new fighting in the region and threat of Houthi tolls on the BAM, oil prices are once again trending upward. The per barrel price of Brent Crude has risen to nearly $90, according to OilPrice.com. It had fallen to just over $83 per barrel yesterday when the pause in hostilities was still holding.

As we have previously noted, the U.S. and Iran had stopped firing at each other late last week, leading to a pause after 13 straight days of continuous tit-for-tat operations. U.S. President Donald Trump hadn’t ordered a U.S. strike on Iranian territory since last Thursday. This was ostensibly to give another round of diplomacy a chance. However, lingering concerns over the supply of munitions, especially air defense interceptors, reportedly played a role in Trump’s thinking.

The U.S. has burned through hundreds of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot interceptors since a shaky ceasefire went into effect on April 8, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) latest assessment. CSIS was updating a previous analysis of munitions expenditures during Epic Fury that you can read more about here.

According to CSIS, the U.S. had about 2,300 Patriot interceptors in its inventories before Epic Fury, 1,030 by the time the ceasefire was agreed to and between 759 and 827 as of July 27.

As for THAADs, there were 452 interceptors in the U.S. inventory before Epic Fury, between 232 and 262 on the date of the ceasefire and between 234 and 278 as of July 27.

The report authors noted that “[e]stimated inventories today account for additional interceptor use and new deliveries since the April 8 ceasefire. THAAD deliveries during the ceasefire outpaced estimated use over the same period, resulting in higher inventories today than in April. Patriot calculations include the latest MSE variant and PAC-3s. Several hundred PAC-2s, not represented in the chart, are estimated to remain in the U.S. inventory.”

New estimates of American Patriot PAC-3 and THAAD anti-ballistic missile interceptor stockpiles in American inventory from CSIS.

Roughly a third of pre-war Patriot interceptors are estimated to remain. pic.twitter.com/fa986PkBQM

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 29, 2026

The lack of sufficient magazine depth is an issue that TWZ has raised frequently for years, and especially in regard to America’s air and missile defenses, in particular. In fact, we laid out in detail these exact concerns and how they would be a major issue in war with Iran just prior to the conflict starting in a feature you can read in full here.

Given Trump’s threat against Iran today, those concerns may be set aside out of a need to respond to the ballistic missile attack. The coming hours should give us a better picture of how all this will develop.

UPDATE: 1:16 PM EDT –

Two vessels were struck by drones in the Egyptian port of Damietta, according to the Ambrey maritime security firm.

One of the ships was a U.S.-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating storage facility and the other was a Greek-owned and operated, Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker, Ambrey stated.

“Reportedly, the incident occurred during LNG discharge operations, with the strike causing a fire on board” the floating LNG storage facility, Ambrey said in an alert. “Ambrey was aware that a second vessel reportedly experienced a fire in connection with the incident. AIS data indicated that the vessel was subsequently towed by two tugs to a position 2.9 NM northeast of the port, accompanied by a fire-fighting vessel.”

The security firm added that it “was aware that the crew had been evacuated and that the fire had subsequently been brought under control. At the time of writing, no party had claimed responsibility. No casualties, damage to port infrastructure or pollution had been reported in connection with the incident.”

After being struck by a drone and experiencing a fire, the Greek-owned and operated Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker “departed and anchored in a position approximately 10.2 NM northwest of the port,” Ambrey noted. 

A maritime security specialist told us that the U.S.-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged floating gas storage facility was the Energos Winter while the other ship was the Gaslog Salem.

Fire involving two LNG vessels disrupts Damietta terminal

A fire involving the Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit and the LNG carrier GasLog Salem has disrupted activity at Egypt’s Damietta LNG terminal. Following the incident, both vessels were moved… pic.twitter.com/3weeuJ4YvS

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 29, 2026

TWZ cannot confirm claims about the drone attacks, however, NASA FIRMS shows two thermal anomalies within the port limits near the vessels’ berths.

Video emerging from the scene shows what is purported to be smoke wafting from the Energos Winter after the attack.

A drone struck the U.S.-owned floating gas storage tanker Energos Winter while it was unloading cargo at Egypt’s Damietta Port, sparking a fire that spread to a second vessel, GasLog Salem. The crews were evacuated, the fire was brought under control, and no injuries were… pic.twitter.com/JwyNSywv8t

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) July 29, 2026

UPDATE: 4:38 PM EDT-

Asked during a press conference whether Iran was behind the drone attack on Egyptian port, Trump said “it’s a little more of the same, but it’s going to be straightening out, it’s going to be straightening out. But in the meantime, we are going to be hitting them very hard, because it is our turn to hit ’em. They know it’s coming, they are asking us not to do it.”

“We’re going to hit them very hard.”

President Trump warns adversaries that the U.S. is prepared to respond forcefully following a drone attack on an LNG tanker off the coast of Egypt.

Trump signaled that retaliation is imminent despite requests from adversaries to hold back.… pic.twitter.com/SMOUuj5qGT

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 29, 2026

UPDATE: 8:33 PM EDT –

As promised by Trump, the U.S. is hitting Iran tonight.

“U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. ET today,” CENTCOM announced on X. “The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday’s attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East.”

U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. ET today. The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday’s attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East.

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 30, 2026

UPDATE: 10:37 PM EDT –

In a post on X, CENTCOM announced that at 10 PM ET, its “forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to yesterday’s attempted missile attacks on U.S. forces.”

“CENTCOM assets struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities,” the command stated. “The strikes aimed to further diminish threats posed by Iran and its proxies to American forces, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf countries.”

CENTCOM says it struck dozens of targets in a “heavy wave” of airstrikes on Iran overnight in response to yesterday’s Iranian missile attacks on U.S. forces.

Newly released strike footage: pic.twitter.com/47V0nlAKFu

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 30, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

An F-35B crashed near the runway at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar north of San Diego at around 10:00 AM local time today. The aircraft was seen in helicopter footage from Fox 5 broken into two major pieces and burned.

As it sits now, it isn’t clear what the status of the pilot is. The installation is a master tactical jet base for the Marine Corps. It also hosts Marine helicopters and KC-130J tankers.

We have reached out to MCAS Miramar for more information. We will update this post with new information as it comes.

Update: 4:51 PM ET –

Marine Corps Air Station Miramar (MCAS Miramar) has issued an official statement, which is as follows:

“Emergency personnel responded this morning to an aircraft mishap on the flightline of Marine Corps Air Station Miramar at approximately 10:00 a.m. local time today, involving an F-35B assigned to Marine Aircraft Group 11, 3d Marine Aircraft Wing.”

“The pilot ejected, was transported to a local medical facility in stable condition for evaluation and treatment of non-life-threatening injuries.”

“More information will be released when available.”

Air traffic control audio from the crash is now also circulating online, as can be heard in the social media post below. The air traffic controllers note that the F-35B appeared to go down short of the runway while coming in to land and the pilot was able to eject.

The head of Operation Aspides, the European-led task force created to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea region, tells TWZ that there has been a major increase in the number of commercial vessels seeking escorts since the U.S. and Israel started attacking Iran in February. Security concerns in that region have spiked after the Houthi rebels of Yemen imposed a blockade on Saudi shipping and began attacking the kingdom’s vessels and oil infrastructure. Late Thursday, the leader of the Houthis promised additional escalation against the Saudis.

“We have witnessed a significant increase in requests from commercial vessels seeking Aspides’ support for their safe transit through the High Threat Area (South Red Sea/Strait of Bab-al-Mandeb [BAM]/Gulf of Aden),” Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, Commander of EUNAVFOR Aspides, told TWZ in an email. “In particular, the number of protection requests increased by 39% from February 2026 (the start of the US-Israel-Iran confrontation) until now.”

“The increasing number of protection requests clearly demonstrates that, in times of insecurity, the shipping industry views Aspides as a credible and reliable maritime security provider,” Gryparis added. “We are working daily to maintain and strengthen bonds with the shipping industry, as mutual understanding and effective collaboration are essential to maritime security and the preservation of Freedom of Navigation.”

As we were one of the first to report, Aspides was launched in February 2024 during the previous Houthi campaign against shipping that ended last September. It was created to provide “a shield…to act in purely defensive mode to protect merchant vessels, and two non-executive tasks of ‘accompanying’ to deter with [its] presence and to strengthen maritime situational awareness,” a now former top EU official told reporters at the time.

Since its founding, the task force “has facilitated the safe passage of more than 2,240 merchant vessels and has provided close protection to more than 690 merchant vessels of different flags and interests,” the Aspides commander explained.

Aspides did not provide assistance to vessels recently attacked by the Houthis because the task force was not asked, Gryparis told us.

“Those vessels were sailing within the territorial waters under the responsibility of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (KSA MRCC),” he stated. “Consequently, assistance was provided by the Saudi Arabian authorities. The vessels in question had not registered their transit with the Maritime Security Centre Indian Ocean (MSCIO) and had not requested protection from EUNAVFOR Aspides.”

In addition to the blockade and strikes on Saudi assets, the Houthis are reportedly considering imposing a toll on Bab al-Mandeb Strait transits. Gryparis told us that such a move, which has yet to be enacted, would not alter Aspides’ goals.

“Such a development would not change the mandate or the mission of Operation Aspides,” the admiral proffered. “Our mission remains clear: to contribute to Freedom of Navigation, protect the lives of seafarers, support the secure flow of global trade by protecting merchant shipping, improve Maritime Situational Awareness, and contribute to regional stability.”

“Of course, any measure that could affect the free passage of commercial shipping has the potential to impact Freedom of Navigation and the confidence of the shipping industry,” he added. “How states or private shipping companies decide to address such a development would be a political and commercial decision for them.”

“From our perspective, we will continue to implement our mandate within our means and capabilities, continuously assess the maritime security environment, provide protection to eligible merchant vessels in accordance with our mandate, and support the shipping industry through Maritime Situational Awareness and the timely dissemination of information and recommendations via the Maritime Security Centre Indian Ocean (MSCIO),” Gryparis noted.

In a fiery speech, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned Saudi Arabia of an all-out escalation. He described his group’s actions as being in response to a Saudi “siege” on the Houthis in Yemen.

“The indicators show that the Saudi [side] is heading toward comprehensive escalation,” al-Houthi proclaimed. “We will seek God’s help against it — we will meet his comprehensive escalation with comprehensive escalation.”

“In this phase, regarding what the Saudi [side] has done, the outcome has been good since establishing the equation of (siege for siege) — in targeting Saudi oil tankers, in preventing their movement, turning back 16 ships, and also in shooting down the Saudi [-operated] aircraft that come to conduct reconnaissance and penetrate our airspace — armed drones,” the Houthi leader continued.

For its part, Saudi Arabia is creating its own maritime coalition to protect transits in the region.

“Recognizing the growing challenges facing global maritime security, and the resulting need to strengthen collective naval defense cooperation to protect freedom of navigation and international trade routes, and to secure global energy supply routes through the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden,” the Saudi Defense Ministry announced on Thursday. “The founding states affirm that the establishment of the Multinational Naval Defense Coalition represents a strategic step toward strengthening maritime security in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, consolidating defense cooperation among the member states, and supporting stability and prosperity — in a manner that contributes to complementing international efforts to protect international peace and security, in accordance with the provisions of international law.”

About 50 nations were asked to join and 14 so far have signed up. It is unclear at the moment how this will differ from Aspides.

Meanwhile, Iran claims it has completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz to vessels in the wake of recent U.S. attacks.

“Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) says that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently impossible because of the continued ‘aggressive actions’ of US military forces in the region, adding that applications for transit would only be processed once stability returns,” the official Iranian Press TV media outlet claimed. Iran, however, frequently makes statements that are outright fabrications or extremely exaggerated. TWZ cannot independently verify this claim.

Traffic through that strategic chokepoint had already been significantly reduced by Iran since the launch of Epic Fury.

In a post on X, U.S. Central Command pushed back on that claim, saying the Strait remains open to shipping.

“CLAIM: Once again, the Iranian government claims it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is FALSE,” the command stated. “FACT: The Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial vessel transit. Iran does not control it. Thousands of ships have sailed through the international waterway over the past four months.”

Regardless of the dueling claims, traffic through the Strait has slowed to a trickle, according to the Kpler global trade intelligence firm.

“The latest maritime risk data points to growing divergence across the region’s two strategic chokepoints,” Kpler stated on X. “Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 77% day on day to just five vessels, with all transits concentrated through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, suggesting reduced operational confidence and limited routing flexibility. At the same time, Bab el Mandeb remained active, recording 47 crossings despite ongoing sanctioned vessel movements, shadow fleet activity and a dark transit. With US and Iranian public positions still at odds, operators are closely monitoring traffic volumes, routing behaviour and any diplomatic developments that could reshape risk across regional shipping lanes in the days ahead.”

Adding to concerns about energy exports, Egyptian officials yesterday confirmed that the port facility of Damietta was hit by a drone strike on Wednesday, the first public acknowledgment that the country has come under fire during this conflict. Cairo did not say who launched the attack, but Trump hinted it was the Iranians. The New York Times reported that two Iranians, who asked not to be named to discuss security matters, “said the explosion was a drone attack designed to show that global shipping and energy supplies could be more deeply disrupted if Iran chose to escalate. The individuals did not say whether Iran or an Iran-allied militia in the region had launched the attack, or from where.”

Iran, for its part, suggested Israel was to blame. Regardless, the incident raised the specter of another part of the region being brought into fighting that is largely centered on the flow of energy supplies.

While tensions on the waters are heating up, the pace of kinetic strikes on land targets seems to be slowing.

Kuwait reported its air defenses shot down several drones earlier on Friday.

“The sinful Iranian aggression targeted a number of vital and military facilities, where the hostile targets were dealt with and destroyed, resulting in material damage due to the fall of shrapnel, with no human casualties recorded, praise be to God,” the Kuwaiti Defense Ministry reported on X. “The armed forces affirm their continued execution of their missions and duties with high efficiency, within the framework of ongoing readiness and permanent preparedness, and taking all necessary measures to protect the sovereignty of the homeland, preserve its security and stability, in coordination with the competent authorities, in a manner that preserves the safety of citizens and residents.”

Tit-for-tat attacks between the U.S. and Iran have also slowed, with the last American strikes launched on July 29. However, during a cabinet meeting at Camp David, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that more offensive action could be in the offing.

“We just want to win,” he stated. “We’ll be hitting them very hard. At some point, they will say we can’t take it anymore.”

When asked about a recent report that he had been given a proposal to “go big,” the president said that has already happened.

“We’ve already gone big,” Trump responded. “What’s big?”

That’s it for now. We’ll update this when there is more information to share.

UPDATE: 8:06 PM EDT –

The Houthis’ Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) sent us a statement pushing back on claims that the Yemeni rebel group is seeking tolls on the BAM.

“The Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has recently become aware of the circulation of a number of reports and claims across certain news websites and media platforms alleging that the Republic of Yemen [Houthis] intends to impose tolls for transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The HOCC categorically denies the accuracy of these claims and confirms that it has neither taken nor considered any decision to impose fees for transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The HOCC further emphasizes that transit throughthe Bab al-Mandab Strait is free of charge.

Furthermore, the services provided by the HOCC — including the Safe Transit Service for vessels — are, as is well known, entirely free of charge. The Safe Transit Service is a voluntary and cost-free service offered by the HOCC to vessels/companies (falling outside the scope of the declared ban) that wish to confirm the safe transit of their vessels through the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea. All vessels outside the scope of the declared ban may transit safely. Additionally, for added assurance, such vessels may submit a Safe Transit Request by email to the following address: clearances@hocc.gov.ye at any time, and a response will be provided within a few hours.

Accordingly, the HOCC categorically confirms that any individual or entity requesting the payment of money in exchange for transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait does not represent the Republic of Yemen or HOCC in any capacity whatsoever. The HOCC urges shipping companies not to make any payments or provide any information to unauthorized individuals or entities.

The HOCC warns against any unauthorized use of its name or logo, or any false claim of representation, for the purpose of collecting fees or other payments in connection with transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait. It further calls upon anyone who is asked to pay such fees to refrain from making any payment, document the incident whenever it is safe and practicable to do so, and report the matter via the email address: compliance@hocc.go.ye, attaching all available details and supporting evidence that may assist in verifying the incident and taking the necessary action.

The HOCC calls upon all media outlets and news websites to adhere to professional standards, exercise due diligence and accuracy when reporting news and information, and refrain from publishing or circulating any information concerning transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait before verifying it through the HOCC’s official channels.“

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Egyptian officials have now confirmed that the port facility of Damietta was hit by a drone strike yesterday, the first public acknowledgment that the country has come under fire during this conflict. Though Cairo did not say who launched the attack, it raises the specter of another part of the region being brought into fighting that is largely centered on the flow of energy supplies.

The attack came as the Houthis began to consider imposing tolls on shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where they have already established a blockade on Saudi shipping and attacked its vessels and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran continues to lob missiles and drones across the region as tit-for-tat strikes have resumed after a short pause.

“Following the successful containment of the fire, the relevant authorities conducted initial investigations into the incident, which indicated that a drone was responsible,” the Egyptian cabinet said in a statement on Thursday, according to state-funded Middle East News Agency. The cabinet added that “no party has claimed responsibility for the attack.”

“The competent authorities are continuing their investigations to determine the full circumstances surrounding the incident and to take the necessary measures to safeguard Egypt’s interests and national security,” the official government outlet added.

As we reported yesterday, the Ambrey maritime security firm said two vessels were struck by drones at Damietta. One of the ships was a U.S.-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating storage facility and the other was a Greek-owned and operated, Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker, Ambrey stated.

A maritime security specialist told us that the U.S.-owned and operated, Marshall Islands-flagged floating gas storage facility was the Energos Winter while the other ship was the Gaslog Salem.

While there has been no official claim or attribution, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that it was an Iranian attack.

Asked during a press conference whether Iran was behind the drone attack on the Egyptian port, Trump said “it’s a little more of the same, but it’s going to be straightening out, it’s going to be straightening out. But in the meantime, we are going to be hitting them very hard, because it is our turn to hit ’em. They know it’s coming, they are asking us not to do it.”

“We’re going to hit them very hard.”

President Trump warns adversaries that the U.S. is prepared to respond forcefully following a drone attack on an LNG tanker off the coast of Egypt.

Trump signaled that retaliation is imminent despite requests from adversaries to hold back.… pic.twitter.com/SMOUuj5qGT

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 29, 2026

The New York Times later reported that two Iranians, who asked not to be named to discuss security matters, “said the explosion was a drone attack designed to show that global shipping and energy supplies could be more deeply disrupted if Iran chose to escalate. The individuals did not say whether Iran or an Iran-allied militia in the region had launched the attack, or from where.”

The Iranians are not the only ones targeting energy facilities in the region. Several of their proxies have as well. It is part of a larger effort to impose cost on the U.S. and its allies.

The Saudis claim their oil infrastructure has been attacked by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq in addition to actions by the Houthis in Yemen. That in part prompted a joint U.S.-Saudi strike on militia targets across that country. It was the first publicly confirmed instance where U.S. and Saudi forces worked in concert.

The Iranian-backed Houthis, who, as we noted above, are striking Saudi oil infrastructure, on Thursday denied involvement in this incident.

“There is no truth to the rumors about Yemen targeting a ship in the port of Damietta in the Arab Republic of Egypt,” the group stated on Telegram. “The Yemeni position is clear, declared, and explicit, and it only targets the Saudi regime for its unjust blockade and ongoing aggression against the Yemeni people.”

A senior political official from Yemen’s Houthi movement has denied reports that the group plans to impose fees on commercial ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Hizam al-Assad, a member of the political bureau of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), said in a… pic.twitter.com/PtSGc5XOPj

— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) July 30, 2026

U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, deferred questions about the incident to Egypt.

Regardless of who attacked Damietta, expanding the conflict to Egypt’s Mediterranean ports marks a significant potential escalation. The region’s two main sea arteries for energy shipments are already being choked off. The Iranians have largely closed down the Strait of Hormuz and there is an ongoing U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. The Houthis, as previously noted, have halted Saudi transits through the BAM, which has had a cascading effect on other nations not wanting to risk attack.

As the Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz increased, the kingdom diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through pipelines to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea in an effort to minimize the energy shortages due to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf. 

That workaround served its purpose until the Houthi blockade, at which point Saudi Arabia began boosting shipments through the Suez Canal. Exports via that route “rose 106% for the week of the embargo announcement to 1.06 million barrels per day, up from the week starting July 13, according to Kpler data,” The National News recently noted.

The port of Damietta, where yesterday’s attack took place, is 33 miles west of Port Said, which is at the northern entrance to the Suez Canal. Closure of the canal, or even a significant drop in traffic through it, would add to the pressures on the global economy already reeling from what is taking place in the Strait of Hormuz and the BAM.

In a post on X, the Windward maritime intelligence firm called the attack on Damietta “a third front, separate from the Gulf and Red Sea.”

“The strike is assessed as separate from the Houthi Saudi-blockade campaign. Iranian state television had named Damietta as a retaliation target two days earlier, citing Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, pointing toward an Iranian-directed operation rather than a Houthi one,” Windward explained in a related analysis.

A drone struck ENERGOS WINTER, a U.S.-managed LNG unit at Damietta, Egypt on July 29, with fire spreading to a second tanker alongside. Iranian state TV had named Damietta as a retaliation target two days earlier. This is a third front, separate from the Gulf and the Red Sea. pic.twitter.com/6bmWtST9XH

— Windward (@WindwardAI) July 30, 2026

Operation Aspides, the European-led task force created to provide security to shipping in the Red Sea region, told us it is monitoring reports that the Houthis are considering placing a toll on transits through the BAM, similar to what Iran has tried to impose in the Strait of Hormuz.

“At this moment, there has been no official statement from the Houthis confirming such a measure,” a spokesman told us Thursday morning. “We continue to monitor developments closely and are going to implement our mandate within our means and capabilities.”

On Thursday, Aspides posted an image of one of its member warships, the Italian frigate Bergamini, escorting merchant vessels in the Red Sea region.

The Italian 🇮🇹 Frigate BERGAMINI operating under EUNAVFOR ASPIDES provided support to merchant vessels, crossing the Area of Operations.

ASPIDES plays a crucial role in safeguarding shipping and supporting the safe passage of vessels through critical maritime routes. pic.twitter.com/9FNQL6Y00C

— EUNAVFOR ASPIDES (@EUNAVFORASPIDES) July 30, 2026

Meanwhile, Iran is continuing to lash out across the region.

Kuwaiti officials said one person was killed in an Iranian barrage today.

“The sinful Iranian aggression targeted a building belonging to one of the Chinese companies in the north of the country, resulting in the death of one worker and causing serious material damage to the building,” the Kuwait Defense Ministry (MoD) stated on X. “The Armed Forces affirm that they will continue carrying out their tasks and duties with high efficiency, and taking all necessary measures to protect national sovereignty and preserve its security and stability, in coordination with the competent authorities, in a way that safeguards the safety of citizens and residents.”

The Jordanian military said it foiled an Iranian attempt to target the kingdom with five missiles. There were no casualties, officials said.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed missiles made it through and that three F-35 Joint Strike Fighters were destroyed and three more damaged at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (MSAB) in Jordan. The IRGC said it was in response to deaths caused by yesterday’s attacks by CENTCOM. However, the IRGC frequently fabricates claims or greatly exaggerates them and we cannot independently confirm this one.

As we have pointed out in the past, the base has been frequently targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Three U.S. Army soldiers were killed in a strike there on July 17.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps released a video of what they say were missiles launched by their naval forces targeting US aircraft at Jordan’s Al Azraq air base, in retaliation for US strikes on Qeshm Island that killed three people. pic.twitter.com/HRxGlWC6AN

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 30, 2026

We reached out to CENTCOM for comment, which a short while later put out a statement on X denying the IRGC claim.

Over the past few hours, Iranian state media have continued to report false claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – three in particular.

🚫 FIRST CLAIM: The IRGC (again) claims free and open routes through the Strait of Hormuz are dangerous for commercial… pic.twitter.com/J34ILmDvyk

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 30, 2026

Regardless of the claims, the constant Iranian bombardment is beginning to stir unrest in Jordan, where public dissent is banned.

“Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal and other figures signed an open letter last week calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Jordan,” The New York Times reported. “People who signed the letter said they were driven by a sense of national responsibility and concern that the troop presence endangered Jordanian sovereignty.”

“We maintain that their presence exposes Jordan to security, political, and economic risks that serve no national interest and increases the likelihood of our country being dragged into a regional conflict to which it is not a party,” the letter said.

🇺🇸🇯🇴 “Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal and other figures signed an open letter calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Jordan in a rare public challenge to the government, after Iranian attacks on bases”https://t.co/yYYutkRzEU via @NYTimes @MazMHussain @GerardAraud

— Karim Emile Bitar (@karimbitar) July 30, 2026

As this conflict drags on, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper, “has prepared an option for a punishing air campaign against Iran that could take up to two weeks,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Now, as Trump moves to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go,” the newspaper noted. “He could greenlight Cooper’s option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued.”

Cooper has prepared an option for a punishing air campaign against Iran that could take up to two weeks, people familiar with the matter said.

Now, as Trump vows to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. W @mgordonwsj…

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) July 29, 2026

Iran, working to rearm as the fighting continues, is expected to receive “a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers,” Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal.

“The purchase, valued at $60-70 million, is one of Tehran’s largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air defenses since the outbreak ‌of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran’s ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure,” the outlet noted.

China isn’t just buying Iranian oil— it’s re-arming the regime.

We need to enforce the sanctions against China now. https://t.co/qvasMaBkOa

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) July 29, 2026

That’s it for now. We’ll update this when there is more information to share.

UPDATE: 4:58 PM EDT –

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the drone strike on Damietta. In a post on X, he hinted at Israeli involvement but did not explicitly deny that Iran carried it out.

“Egypt is considered a friend and important partner in the region, and its security constitutes an utmost priority for us,” Araghchi stated. “We must all remain vigilant toward Israeli schemes and ‘false flag’ operations that aim to undermine regional peace. The threat is clear, shared, and fears Muslim solidarity.”

تُعدُّ مصر صديقًا وشريكًا مهمًا في المنطقة، ويُشكّل أمنُها أهميةً قصوى بالنسبة لنا.
يجب علينا جميعًا أن نكون يقظين تجاه المخططات الإسرائيلية وعمليات “العَلَم الزائف” التي تهدف إلى تقويض السلام الإقليمي.
إن التهديد واضح، ومشترك، ويخشَى تضامن المسلمين.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 30, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The U.S. Navy is pumping $70 million into the development of a ground-launched version of CoAspire’s Rapidly Adaptable Affordable Cruise Missile-Extended Range (RAACM-ER) cruise missile. RAACM-ER was unveiled just earlier this year. Continued work on the design will now be done under a program aimed primarily at giving U.S. allies and partners a new, lower-cost way to strike moving targets at sea and on land.

CoAspire announced today that it had received what is known as an Other Transactional Agreement (OTA) in support of the Navy’s Coalition Heterogenous Affordable Offensive Strike (CHAOS) program. The OTA process is a contracting mechanism that U.S. government agencies use to help speed up advanced research and development and prototype efforts.

“Under a $70m Prototype Other Transactional Agreement (OTA) with CMG Networks on behalf of Naval Aviation Systems Consortium, CoAspire will design, build, test, and deliver to Program Acquisition Executive for Munitions and its program office, PMX-201, an affordable, ground-launched, mid-range, cruise missile system that can attack both land-based and moving maritime targets,” according to a press release from CoAspire. “The end-use Foreign Military Sale (FMS) customers are allies and coalition partners needing an affordable yet highly effective maritime strike weapon that can be easily manufactured at scale.”

Whether or not the Navy has also selected other companies to move ahead with their designs under CHAOS is unknown, and TWZ has reached out to the service for more information.

RAACM-ER is a turbojet-powered cruise missile. It has a body with a trapezoidal shape that is reminiscent, in very broad strokes, of Lockheed Martin’s stealthy AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and derivatives thereof.

“Physics is physics,” Doug Denneny, founder, CEO, and owner at CoAspire, told TWZ‘s Jamie Hunter at the Navy League’s annual Sea-Air-Space exhibition earlier this year. “When people look at shapes, they look similar, but just like an Airbus looks like a Boeing, but what they have different inside is really what matters, and that’s how we differ in many ways.”

CoAspire’s missile has a GPS-assisted navigation system and a long-wave infrared seeker in the nose. The guidance package allows for the engagement of moving targets, as well as static ones based on fixed target coordinates. Passive infrared seekers are immune to radiofrequency countermeasures, such as jammers or decoys. They also do not pump out signals that could alert a target to the incoming danger. All of this creates advantages over active radars for terminal homing.

When RAACM-ER made its public debut, the company said the design could be fired from ground-based launchers or ones on ships, as well as be employed by aircraft. However, an air-launched version was the only one on display. Surface launch requires the addition of a rocket booster to the tail of the missile, as seen on the model in the picture at the top of this story. That booster falls away after launch.

As an aside, CoAspire is also now developing what it says is a separate surface-launched version of RAACM-ER, called GHOST, for the U.S. military’s Low-Cost Containerized Missiles (LCCM) program. The core RAACM-ER design also evolved conceptually from an earlier missile simply called RAACM, but they are entirely different. The original RAACM was developed under a U.S. Air Force program called the Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM), which has also been aimed primarily at supporting allies and partners, starting first with Ukraine.

When designing RAACM-ER, “our engineers came to us and said, ‘Hey, if we’re going to make a bigger one, should we make it look just the same?’ I mentioned earlier that RAACM was made that shape just to ease integration,” Denneny also told Jamie Hunter at Sea-Air-Space. “We’re an engineering company, so we said, ‘Let’s optimize fuel volume, let’s optimize survivability features, let’s optimize physics so that this thing can go as far as possible and take the sensors needed. That’s why it’s in this slightly different shape.”

How far RAACM-ER, now described as a “mid-range” missile, can go in any of its configurations is unclear. When it was first unveiled, the missile looked to be well suited for the Family of Affordable Mass Missiles-Beyond Adversary’s Reach (FAMM-BAR) effort, which is seeking lower-cost designs with maximum ranges of 1,000 nautical miles or more. This is roughly the same reach as is offered today by variants of the surface-launched Tomahawk cruise missile.

However, at Sea-Air-Space, Denneny separately told Naval News that RAACM-ER had roughly twice the reach of the original RAACM, which would be around 485 nautical miles (900 kilometers) based on previously stated ERAM program requirements. This would put the design more in the category, at least range-wise, of the air-launched AGM-158B JASSM-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) land-attack cruise missile. An extended-range version of the JASSM’s Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) cousin that is now in development is expected to have similar reach.

“CoAspire hasn’t discussed range capabilities of our products, so any assumptions/estimations would be speculation,” a representative for the company told TWZ today when asked for further clarification.

Even with a range of 485 nautical miles, RAACM-ER would offer a notable boost in capability over many other anti-ship cruise missiles in service today with U.S. allies and partners, as well as the U.S. military itself. For example, the reported maximum reach of extended-range variants of the Harpoon is in the 150-mile realm. Current-generation versions of the increasingly popular Naval Strike Missile (NSM) have a stated range of at least 162 miles.

In more general terms, extended reach expands the total area that a single launch platform can hold at risk, while also keeping it further away from potential threats. Longer-range munitions also offer additional flexibility to respond to targets that might emerge suddenly or other changing developments in the battlespace.

How large a warhead RAACM-ER carries is unclear. Trading warhead weight and bulk for fuel, as well as reducing total payload weight, would help extend range. A smaller warhead would have impacts on the missile’s effectiveness. At the same time, certain targets would also not necessarily require something like the 1,000-pound-class warheads found on many Tomahawk variants to achieve the desired effect. When it comes to ships, especially, destroying or even just severely damaging key systems on a ship can achieve a mission kill that substantially reduces the vessel’s combat effectiveness or might even force it back into port for a protracted period of time.

See Tomahawk missile strike a ship

Providing increased capability at a cheaper price point is also a key aspect of the CHAOS program. It was also top of mind for CoAspire in the development of RAACM-ER, though an estimated unit price for the missile has yet to be released. Current-generation Harpoons can range in price from $1.4 to $2.25 million, depending on variant, based on publicly available cost data. NSMs are also in the roughly $2 million price range. The latest versions of the Tomahawk are even more expensive.

“The most important thing is affordable mass. [This] means keeping the cost down, so that the nation and our allies can purchase these at scale. That’s number one,” CoAspire’s Denneny told us at Sea-Air-Space. “Number two is to use as many commercial off-the-shelf parts, so that we are not locked into a single supplier for anything. The final thing is to have something that can survive enemy countermeasures, and also hit the target, whether it’s stationary or moving. Those are the main requirements.”

“An additive approach also allows for rapid modifications and a reduction in tooling and touch labor that results in cost reductions and program improvements without breaking a production line for re-tooling,” CoAspire’s press release today also notes. “It also allows for the development of new variants in months compared to years needed by other missile manufacturing methods.”

Providing new standoff strike weapons in mass to allies and partners would have knock-on benefits for the U.S. military in future coalition operations. This would distribute an additional tier of capability across more friendly forces, helping to reduce reliance on American forces and foreign militaries that field higher-end munitions.

All of this could make the ground-launched version of RAACM-ER, and any other missiles developed under the Navy’s CHAOS program, attractive to the U.S. military, as well. As already noted, the GHOST version of RAACM-ER is already under development now as part of the LCCM program, which is a U.S. Army effort.

As TWZ regularly draws attention to, munitions expenditures in recent operations against Iran and other conflicts globally in the past few years have underscored the increasingly critical need for new designs that are both cheaper and easier to produce. This is vital for ensuring sufficient stockpiles of key munitions, including stand-off strike weapons, at the start of a conflict and making sure that the arsenal can be replenished as fighting continues. It is important to note that lower-cost types are not expected to supplant more expensive and exquisite capabilities now or in the future, but instead complement them.

Just in the past few months, the U.S. military has moved to lay the groundwork for the acquisition of tens of thousands of new, lower-cost stand-off munitions over the next three to five years. CoAspire is one of several companies to have received framework deals as part of these efforts. These agreements cover surface and air-launched designs being developed in support of the aforementioned LCCM and FAMM programs, respectively. It’s also worth noting here that the ERAM program, which was also foreign-focused at the outset, has already been feeding into FAMM.

With all this in mind, today’s announcement regarding CHAOS is another important win for CoAspire. This also underscores U.S. military-wide efforts to reduce reliance on traditional prime contractors and do more to leverage small and non-traditional firms for new major weapon system programs.

With the new vote of confidence from the Navy, along with the previous LCCM framework deal, CoAspire’s RAACM-ER continues to emerge as a particularly notable development for the U.S. military and its allies and partners.

Update: 2:25 PM ET –

The U.S. Navy has now provided TWZ with some additional details regarding today’s announcement about the CHAOS program.

The Navy awarded an Other Transaction Authority agreement to CoAspire for Phases 1 and 2 of the Coalition Heterogenous Affordable Offensive Strike (CHAOS) prototype effort, July 17, marking PAE Munitions’ direct investment in the emerging low-cost cruise missile market,” according to a Navy spokesperson. “The award is a significant milestone in developing an affordable maritime strike capability for security assistance partners while expanding the defense industrial base through competition and accelerating a new entrant into the Navy’s precision strike portfolio.”

“The Navy has requested appropriated funds to begin integration of this low-cost maritime capability on Navy platforms as part of the FY27 budget request,” they added. “PAE Munitions expect[s] at least one more industry agreement on CHAOS as part of its competitive strategy.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

As the U.S. continues to expend offensive and defensive munitions in the fight against Iran, the Pentagon’s top leaders are testifying before the Senate today about how to pay for the war, including to replace $21 billion in strike weapons and air defense interceptors already used. The appearance of War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine comes as resumed hostilities have entered an 11th day and President Donald Trump renewed threats to attack Iran’s deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility.

Hegseth and Caine are appearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee to explain why the extra money is needed. It is included in a nearly $90 billion supplemental budget request made by the White House last month. Of that, the administration is seeking $67.1 billion to address “operational costs incurred by the Department of War (DoW) during OEF [Operation Epic Fury], including funding for military personnel and readiness expenses, operational costs to rebuild stocks expended by DOW, classified programs, and other key expenses,” the White House stated. 

As we noted earlier, the largest line item in the request is $21 billion for the munitions fired off during the conflict. We have frequently highlighted concerns over U.S. stocks of high-end offensive missiles and bombs and air defense interceptors and the difficulty in replacing them.

An official told The Washington Post that “the expansion of U.S. operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.

Meanwhile, the money being used to fund the conflict is having a cascading downstream effect on the U.S. military.

“The funding crunch is already leading the Pentagon to limit training and maintenance that help maintain military readiness,” The Washington Post reported, citing four current and former officials. 

Caracas, July 20, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – A US federal judge has issued a default ruling against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and several current and former state officials. US $314 million in damages was awarded to three US citizens who spent time imprisoned in Venezuela.

Venezuelan authorities have yet to comment on the case. Legal proceedings against Acting President Delcy Rodríguez continue. However, on Monday, the Trump administration sent a letter to the court arguing that, as a sitting head of state recognized by Washington, Rodríguez should be “entitled to immunity.”

Judge Darrin P. Gayles from the District Court for the Southern District of Florida published the verdict on July 14. US nationals Jerrel Kenemore, Jason Saad, and Edgar José Marval brought a civil lawsuit in August 2025 under Florida’s Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) and the federal RICO statute against organized crime. 

The three US citizens were released from Venezuela in December 2023 as part of a prisoner swap agreement with the Biden administration that saw former Venezuelan government envoy Alex Saab returned to the South American country.

The plaintiffs sought damages after claiming to have suffered “physical and psychological torture” while imprisoned in Venezuela and to have been used as part of “hostage diplomacy” to secure Saab’s release. The judge claimed that Maduro and other officials were a “criminal enterprise” that acted against US interests.

“The Maduro Criminal Enterprise committed myriad predicate offenses through its drug trafficking and kidnapping actions in and against the United States and its citizens,” he wrote in the verdict. The court estimated compensation for “kidnapping and torture” and “solatium, pain and suffering” under ATA that totaled $312.5 million and added $1.5 million in RICO damages.

Gayles entered the default ruling against Maduro after he failed to enter a defense or plea before the court. The court clerk entered similar defaults against Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, former Defense and current Agriculture Minister Vladimir Padrino López, former Interior Minister Néstor Reverol, former Attorney General Tarek William Saab, former Supreme Court President Maikel Moreno, and former Industry Minister Alex Saab.

Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores were kidnapped by US forces on January 3 and are facing charges including “narcoterrorism” and drug trafficking conspiracy. Both have pleaded not guilty, with the next hearing scheduled for July 22.

The Florida judge also included the so-called Cartel de los Soles, an alleged drug trafficking outfit run by high-ranking Venezuelan officials, as a defaulting defendant. Crime researchers have cast doubt on the existence of the cartel, while the US Justice Department dropped all references to it in the formal indictment against Maduro and Flores.

Similarly, Gayles claimed that “for at least twenty years, Maduro intentionally inundated the United States with tons of cocaine.” However, US officials have never presented evidence tying Maduro to narcotics activities, while reports from the DEA have consistently found that a very small percentage of US-bound drugs flow through Venezuela.

The US Justice Department has since 2020 introduced $25 million and $15 million bounties, respectively, for the arrest of Cabello and Padrino in connection with alleged “narcoterrorism.”

According to the Associated Press, Saab’s legal representatives declined to comment on the case. The acting Rodríguez government turned over the Colombian-born businessman, who served as industry minister after his 2023 release, to US authorities in May. He is being held at the Federal Detention Center in Miami while facing trial on renewed money laundering charges.

In contrast to Maduro, Cabello, and others, Acting President Rodríguez responded to the lawsuit in April, with lawyers contending that, as Venezuelan head of state, she should be immune from civil action. Rodríguez received the backing of the Trump administration via a July 20 letter “suggesting” to the court that the acting president should enjoy immunity,

“The United States respectfully submits to the Court that President Delcy Rodríguez is immune in this action and all claims against her should be dismissed without prejudice,” the letter concluded. The US State Department also intervened in June, requesting that the Justice Department communicate Rodríguez’s immunity to the Florida district court in order to secure a “prompt dismissal of the proceedings.”

Rodríguez’s brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, filed a similar motion to set aside the lawsuit via a different legal team. The plaintiffs opposed the moves in another motion at the end of April.

The civil lawsuit likewise targeted state-owned companies Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA) and Corporación Venezolana de Petróleo (CVP). The two firms have claimed immunity from civil litigation under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.

The plaintiffs have not disclosed any strategy to collect the awarded damages. None of the defaulting defendants has any publicly known assets under US jurisdiction.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Caracas.

[Updated on July 21 to include the Trump administration and State Department letters to the court endorsing immunity for Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez.]

As renewed hostilities between Iran and the U.S. and its allies enter a 10th day, the Houthi rebels of Yemen say they are imposing an embargo on Saudi oil shipments passing through the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) Strait. The move threatens to add further pressure on oil exports from the Middle East, already drastically affected by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of oil per day through pipelines to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea in an effort to minimize the energy shortages due to the hostilities in the Persian Gulf. This also raises the specter of the U.S. having to get as involved as it did during the previous Houthi campaign against shipping that ended last September, which could pull resources away from Iranian-focused operations.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran over the recent deaths of U.S. troops while reports have emerged that he is considering widening the conflict. However, the massive expenditure of air defense munitions that has already taken place is a major consideration. In addition, there are growing concerns about the extent of the damage to U.S. bases in the region and the uptick in casualties.

On Monday, Kuwait said it came under Iranian fire again.

“Kuwaiti air defenses are currently engaging hostile missile and drone attacks following the heinous Iranian aggression,” the Kuwaiti Defense Ministry stated on X. “The General Staff of the Army notes that any sounds of explosions heard are a result of air defense systems intercepting hostile attacks. Everyone is urged to adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the relevant authorities.”

Hours earlier, Bahrain said it too had come under a new wave of Iranian attacks.

“The General Command of the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) announces that Iran is continuing its systematic hostility approach through its sinister attacks targeting civilians in the Kingdom of Bahrain,” BDF posted on X. “The General Command clarifies that, with strong will and high combat readiness, the air defense systems attacked, intercepted and destroyed a number of treacherous Iranian air strikes today, Monday, July 20, 2026.”

تعلن القيادة العامة لقوة دفاع البحرين أن إيران تواصل نهجها العدائي الممنهج عبر اعتداءاتها الآثمة التي تستهدف المدنيين في مملكة البحرين.https://t.co/wYqDmaBD3K pic.twitter.com/Hf4o6zLgHn

— قوة دفاع البحرين (@BDF_Bahrain) July 20, 2026

The extent of the damage in either Kuwait or Bahrain is unclear at the moment. These most recent attacks came after U.S. Central Command on Sunday night said it wrapped up a ninth straight day of strikes on Iranian assets, targeting “military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks to further diminish Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X.

Amid this kinetic activity, as we noted earlier in this story, the Iranian-backed Houthis say they will no longer permit Saudi Arabian ships passage through from the Red Sea into the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces declare a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the equation of an ‘eye for an eye,’ effective immediately upon the issuance of this statement,” the Houthis stated on Monday, according to the official Houthi SABA media outlet. The move follows increased tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia as well as a request by Iran “to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure,” Reuters reported last week. “The idea has been discussed within the Islamic Republic’s leadership, and the message has been conveyed to Iran’s Houthi allies.”

⚡️BREAKING: Yemen’s Houthis have announced a Naval Blockade on Saudi Arabia from the Red Sea

This move essentially Cuts OFF Saudi oil exports through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait pic.twitter.com/gqV8E5hfq1

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) July 20, 2026

Houthi forces on Monday reportedly began issuing warnings on open maritime frequencies near Yemen that the BAM is closed to Saudi shipping and its vessels are subject to attack.

Houthi forces are reportedly issuing warnings on open maritime frequencies near Yemen that the Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed to Saudi shipping. pic.twitter.com/MD0KhmTmJ5

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 20, 2026

A Houthi shut down of the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) Strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti, would choke off the flow of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, exacerbating the above-mentioned impingement on the flow of oil from the closed Strait of Hormuz. 

Having both straits closed at once is something of a ‘sum of all fears’ scenario for the global energy marketplace.

“The full closure of the BAM would cut global oil supply by 7% as it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region,” Reuters noted on Monday. “The disruption would ​add to the massive cut to global oil flows from the war in the Gulf, which has already reduced shipments by 10% of global supply.”

You can read more about the effects of both straits being closed at once in our story about that here.

Beyond affecting the flow of oil, a Houthi blockade on the BAM threatens to open a new front in this conflict.

The Houthis carried out a campaign against shipping in November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians over the latest war between Israel and Gaza. However, while it was ostensibly aimed at only Israeli connected ships, numerous commercial vessels with no clear Israeli ties were attacked as were several U.S. and allied warships. The campaign stretched into the summer of 2025, forcing some vessels to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around Africa, boosting shipping costs by nearly $200 billion at the time.

The Houthi attacks also forced the U.S. and allies to deploy many warships, including the Eisenhower and Truman Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) to both defend against Houthi attacks and strike targets in Yemen. These operations resulted in a large expenditure of air defense and strike munitions.

You can see video of some of those encounters below.

WATCH: CENTCOM releases footage as US HAMMERS Iran

The possibility exists that a new wave of Houthi attacks — especially if non-Saudi ships are targeted — could drag in U.S. forces already in heavy use in the Persian Gulf region battling the Iranians. This sets up a major showdown as Saudi oil is a lifeline to Asian supplies hobbled by conflict in the Persian Gulf. We reached out to CENTCOM for comment and will update this story with any pertinent details shared.

Earlier on Monday, the head of the European-led task force providing maritime security in the Red Sea region told us the Houthis remain a threat to navigation despite not having attacked any merchant vessels since September 2025.

“The security situation in the Bab el-Mandeb remains fragile and is highly sensitive to regional escalation,” Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, Commander of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, told TWZ. “On the rhetorical level, the Houthis’ leadership reiterated several times their alignment with the broader Axis of Resistance.”

Gryparis’s comments, in response to a query from last week about Iran’s outreach to the Houthis, came before the Yemeni group’s embargo declaration. 

“From an operational standpoint, we assess that the Houthis pose a threat and are capable of rapidly escalating,” the ASPIDES commander told us. “We maintain a frequent presence at sea, monitor the situation, and adjust our actions when needed. In the event of a resumption of Houthi attacks on merchant vessels, which remains a possibility, we are present and ready to implement our mandate, within our means and capabilities. ASPIDES remains ready, within its defensive mandate, to adapt to evolving operational requirements.”

Being drawn into defending against a new Houthi campaign on shipping in the Red Sea region would exacerbate the strain on U.S. forces already under tremendous pressure from Iran. In addition to defending against ongoing barrages, the U.S. has committed about 20 U.S. warships, along with hundreds of aircraft dispersed across various bases, vessels, and forward arming and refueling points in the Middle East, to maintaining the newly reimposed blockade on Iranian ports. Moving these assets to another prologned shooting match in the Red Sea would degrade those capabilities and the ability to support a war effort should it fully erupt. It’s a capacity issue.

Expanding the fight against Iran is already in discussion by the Trump administration.

“The U.S. is planning for a wider war,” a U.S. official familiar with internal administration discussions told The Washington Post.

But the official cautioned that “the expansion of U.S. operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage,” the newspaper continued.

“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the Post said the official added.

One notable detail from The Washington Post’s reporting: even as the Pentagon prepares for the possibility of a broader conflict with Iran, one U.S. official warned that the campaign could be constrained by dwindling stocks of air defense interceptors and long-range munitions,… https://t.co/Xo9A6yNFnp pic.twitter.com/dKEN3IGNUr

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 20, 2026

While we cannot independently confirm this latest Post report about internal administration debates, we have frequently highlighted concerns over U.S. stocks of these munitions and the difficulty in replacing them.

All this comes as there are increasing signs of damage at U.S. facilities in the Middle East from Iranian barrages. Though largely spared in the initial phases of Epic Fury due to robust air defenses, the airfield at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan has taken the brunt of recent attacks, while several other installations have been hit as well.

Muwaffaq Salti, as we have frequently reported, has come under attack numerous times. In March, CNN obtained imagery from Planet Labs showing an AN/TPY-2 radar damaged, or even possibly destroyed, following an Iranian attack there.

The air base has long been a major regional hub for U.S. operations, and is being very actively utilized in the current conflict. It hosts the greatest concentration of U.S. tactical aircraft in the region, and thus is an extremely important target, where, as we pointed out, even one ballistic missile landing on an apron could destroy multiple prized aircraft and take the lives of U.S. service members or cause injuries.

Satellite imagery has emerged on social media purporting to show the extent of the damage at MSAB. The following shows what is claimed to be before and after views of strikes on aircraft hangars and containerized housing units. The imagery is provided by Iran and, because U.S. satellite firms do not collect over American facilities, we cannot independently confirm what is being depicted.

Before-and-after imagery shows at least two dozen containerized living units housing U.S. troops completely destroyed by Iranian strikes at 31°49′57″N, 36°47′47″E.

Two U.S. service members were killed at this site, while a third remains missing. pic.twitter.com/sqPOxhGTLr

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) July 20, 2026

Beyond damage, the number of troops killed and injured in Iranian attacks is rising. On Monday, the Pentagon identified two soldiers killed in action.

“1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, was killed in action on July 18, 2026, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, was killed in action on July 17, 2026, during an enemy attack on July 17, 2026, at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “The incident is under investigation.”

Both soldiers worked for air defense units. Feehan was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 55th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 32nd Army Air Missile Defense Command, Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Gonzales was assigned to 1st Battalion, 57th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 10th Army Air Missile Defense Command, Ansbach, Germany.

BREAKING: The Pentagon has identified the soldiers killed in action from Iranian attacks in Jordan as 19-year-old Pvt. Isabella Gonzales and 25-year-old 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan.

1st Lt. Feehan was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 55th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 32nd Army Air… pic.twitter.com/3PFpnMcOVZ

— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 20, 2026

Today’s identifications came after CENTCOM on Saturday reported that two U.S. service members in Jordan were killed in action on July 17. Additionally, the command said one service member was currently missing, but later said unidentified remains were found. 

CENTCOM also reported on Sunday that “a U.S. service member in northern Iraq was killed in action July 18 during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone. A second service member was wounded and continues to receive medical treatment for a minor injury.”

We have asked CENTCOM and the Army to confirm that Feehan was the soldier killed in Iraq during the controlled detonation or if he was killed in another incident.

It should be noted that in announcing the identities of Feehan and Gonzales, the Pentagon said they died in support of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), which is the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. We asked the Pentagon for clarity and they deferred us to CENTCOM, which has yet to respond.

Meanwhile, The New York Times accused the Pentagon of hiding the number of injured troops.

“In the week leading up to the Iranian attack on Friday that killed two U.S. soldiers and left one service member missing in Jordan, Iran carried out three other strikes against U.S. forces in the country,” the paper explained. “Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted.”

The episode “is the latest example during the Iran conflict of the tension between what the Pentagon says is the need for operational security and the government’s obligation to inform the public about the conduct of the war,” the Times proffered.

The Pentagon pushed back on that claim, rejecting it as “baseless and malicious.”

The Department of War rejects these baseless and malicious accusations of hiding injury numbers as outright lies from partisan hacks at the New York Times who are desperate to smear America’s military and its leadership.

Claims of concealment are fabrications meant to further… pic.twitter.com/ocAJXPVEff

— Sean Parnell (@SeanParnellASW) July 20, 2026

Still, despite the increasing violence, both the U.S. and Iran have suggested that further diplomacy to end the fighting is possible. This is even as both sides declared the ceasefire over and Iranians last week said they would no longer negotiate a Memorandum of Understanding on a possible peace deal.

“You can’t have an MOU that’s alive if they’re violating the terms,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters. “The U.S. always remains open to a diplomatic solution. We’ve tried multiple times with Iran and we’ll continue to try… but their behavior is what we’re responding to — and their behavior is they’re launching missiles and drones against ships.”

.@SecRubio: “You can’t have an MOU that’s alive if they’re violating the terms… The U.S. always remains open to a diplomatic solution. We’ve tried multiple times with Iran and we’ll continue to try… but their behavior is what we’re responding to — and their behavior is… https://t.co/SIYaJOeAHK pic.twitter.com/qv4THvFqRg

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 20, 2026

“Proposals were put forward by the mediators, we were informed of them, and we received them,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said during a press conference. “However, let me not go into details right now. The gist of the matter is that the diplomatic mission has been actively working these days, and some ideas from a number of mediators have reached us—yes, this is confirmed.”

FM Spox: Peace is not a luxury item stored away in the vault of int’l relations, waiting to be handed over. Rather, it is something that must be fought for. Peace comes at an exceptionally high price particularly in our region, where war is being normalized and forced upon us. pic.twitter.com/Ulpt2hPfl4

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) July 20, 2026

Still, Trump threatened to continue striking Iran should more U.S. forces be killed.

“Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!” the president proclaimed on Truth Social. “This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military.”

There are no new peace talks scheduled and it remains unclear if they will be. Meanwhile, the new Houthi blockade could deeply complicate an already highly-precarious situation in the Middle East.

UPDATE: 4:50 PM EDT –

CENTCOM announced the start of the 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iranian targets.

“Today at 4 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began a new round of strikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” the command stated on X. “The strikes are designed to further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Today at 4 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began a new round of strikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are designed to further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 20, 2026

UPDATE: 9:59 PM EDT-

CENTCOM said it concluded the strikes at 9 PM ET.

“U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.”

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it concluded another round of strikes against Iran at 9:00 p.m. ET on July 20, targeting military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems for the tenth consecutive night intending to… https://t.co/e6VYmo3vt6 pic.twitter.com/A6b0lMqn4B

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 21, 2026

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

For the first time in U.S. military history, uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) were used as a strike weapon in combat. The use of Saronic Corsair USVs took place July 12 during a series of attacks against “dozens” of Iranian targets, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). It came as the U.S. and Iran have continued to trade strikes primarily related to control over the Strait of Hormuz, with President Donald Trump proclaiming he wants to take over the strategic chokepoint and reinstate the naval blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Iran has also been launching attacks against several Arab nations in the most recent flare-up of hostilities as a shaky ceasefire continues to disintegrate.

“Yesterday, using multiple one-way attack surface drones, CENTCOM forces successfully struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran,” the command stated on X Monday morning. “Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking the first time American forces have employed sea drones in combat operations. Last night’s strikes degraded Iran’s ability to continue attacking commercial shipping.”

This attack is the latest iteration of the U.S. Navy’s use of drone boats in combat. Last month, a Saronic Corsair USV rescued the crew of a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache that crashed in the Gulf of Oman after it was downed by Iran. That was the first known instance of a drone boat being used to recover personnel as part of a search and rescue mission, and has major implications for these operations going forward. 

“The surface drone that assisted in last night’s rescue of the Apache crew off the coast of Oman was a U.S. Navy Corsair unmanned surface vessel operated by U.S. 5th Fleet’s Task Force 59,” U.S. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a CENTCOM spokesman, told TWZ at the time. “The task force began fielding these drones in theater in late March.”

Historic sea drone rescue near Strait of Hormuz for Apache helicopter crew members

Established in 2021, Task Force 59 is a testbed unit that is tasked with experimenting with the integration of new uncrewed and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities into day-to-day naval operations across the Middle East. It appears that the task force is starting to operationalize those technologies more broadly. Using USVs in an attack role could help reduce the burden on aircraft and crews for strikes, at least against certain targets out to sea and along the coast. Above all else, it creates another vector for kinetic operations against the enemy, which complicates their defensive plans.

In a recent interview with TWZ, Saronic co-founder Rob Lehman declined to provide any details about this mission set or any others Corsair was conducting in the region. However, he did say its success will reverberate across the USV industry.

“I think the tangible impact to the industry is that autonomous systems are now perceived as real credible capabilities rather than a science and technology kind of sideshow where we’re desperately trying to prove that the tech can play a role in these types of operations,” Lehman told us. “So my hope is that not just for Saronic, but all of our partners on the commercial side, that it’s an accelerant to getting more of these capabilities in the war fighters’ hands.” 

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has used USVs to devastating effect on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Magura line of drones, among others, has played a key role in this campaign.

Many successful attacks have been recorded against Black Sea Fleet vessels and facilities, forcing the general evacuation of Russian naval assets from occupied Crimea to bases in Russia proper.

The Houthi rebels of Yemen actually pioneered the operational use of kamikaze USVs years ago. We first reported about this capability in January 2017, when an explosive-laden Houthi USV struck a Saudi frigate. Before that, Iran developed various crude kamikaze USVs and those capabilities soon migrated to their Houthi proxies, which put them to use in the Red Sea for the first time.

You can see the January 2017 attack in the video below.

فيديو يؤكد الهجوم الانتحاري على الفرقاطة السعودية

As we have frequently noted, the U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on June 17. The MoU provided a 60-day extension of the ceasefire to iron out an agreement to end fighting throughout the region, including Lebanon, prevent Iran from seeking nuclear weapons, end U.S. sanctions and resume the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, among other points.

Control over the Strait has proven to be the biggest flashpoint, as evidenced by the aforementioned flare-up of fighting.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has continued to claim it controls the Strait.

As we noted earlier in this piece, Trump just proclaimed that the U.S. would take over the Strait.

“We hit them very hard last night,” Trump told Fox News. “Every time they send a drone, we hit them very hard. But we had a deal. What nobody knows, we had a deal. It was a done deal, and then they broke it. They always break it. We’ve had 10 deals with these people, and so we’re just going to hit them very hard, and we’re going to keep the Strait, and we’ll probably run it.”

“We’ll become the guardian of the Strait,” the American leader added. “Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the Strait.”

Trump suggested that the U.S. be paid for this effort.

“And we should be reimbursed for that,” he posited. “When we do that, we’re going to be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy.”

Trump also took to his Truth Social network to say that he is reinstating the naval blockade on Iranian ports that was removed when the MoU was signed last month. He added that the U.S. will impose a toll on shipping.

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” the president proffered. “The process and formation will begin immediately.”

The U.S. military using drone boats in a kinetic strike role sets a new precedent not just for operations in the CENTCOM region, but also those in other flashpoints, including the Pacific. It comes as the Pentagon has adopted a number of other capabilities that have been ‘borrowed’ from other conflicts, including the first use of one-way attack drones loosely based on Iran’s Shahed-136, for instance. But it is interesting that these kamikaze drone boats were not deployed at the start of the war, when sea and shore targets were plentiful. That points to the Pentagon still racing to catch-up with some weapons developments from conflict zones overseas or at least at opening the aperture for how and when those technologies are used operationally.

UPDATE: 12:26 PM EDT –

The video released by CENTCOM this morning appears to show one of the Corsair USVs attacking what looks to be a Ghadir class diesel-electric midget submarine.

Given the frequency of U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s key naval base at Bandar Abbas during this conflict, it is unclear how Iran still had any of these vessels left.

As we previously reported, U.S. forces apparently sunk another Ghadir class boat in March. It was struck by an AGM-114 Hellfire missile, a U.S. official told TWZ. At the time, we questioned how many Ghadir class submarines were in Iran’s inventory before the current conflict. However, prior estimates had generally put the size of that fleet at between 16 and 20 hulls.

The Ghadir class boat in the new CENTCOM video was sitting on the dock, so it is possible Iran pulled it out after the ceasefire went into effect. 

UPDATE: 1:01 PM EDT –

Saronic released a statement.

“The U.S. military has confirmed that Saronic Corsairs were used by U.S. Central Command in operations against Iran. According to CENTCOM, three military variant Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas Naval Base — the first time American forces have employed sea drones in combat operations,” the company stated. “We are proud that our technology supported this mission and helped degrade threats to commercial shipping. Saronic remains committed to delivering autonomous maritime systems that strengthen the security of the United States and its allies.”

UPDATE 2:38 PM EDT –

CENTCOM provided an update on the blockade.

“At the Commander in Chief’s direction, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET,” the command stated on X. “CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.”

“The resumption of the U.S. blockade against Iran follows the initial implementation from April 13 to June 18,” the command added. “CENTCOM forces redirected more than 140 compliant vessels, disabled nine non-compliant ships, and allowed over 50 commercial vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass through the blockade during the two-month period.”

“All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches,” CENTCOM noted. “Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice.”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Two U.S. troops were killed in action and one remains missing in Jordan on Friday while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, U.S. Central Command announced on X. Another “four American service members were medically evacuated to Jordanian hospitals. They have since been discharged. Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty.”

“Out of respect for the families, CENTCOM is withholding additional information, including the identities of the fallen warriors, until 24 hours after the next of kin have been notified,” the command added.

CENTCOM did not say where in Jordan, however, yesterday, CBS News reported that “Iran attacked at least two Jordanian bases this week, resulting in several American service members being injured in the attack after their facility was struck.”

We noted yesterday that data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) at 10:59 PM EDT indicated a fire adjacent to the runway near an area where aircraft are parked at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. However, TWZ cannot independently verify what happened at the base and if any equipment was destroyed or damaged and how personnel there were affected. We’ve reached out to CENTCOM for answers.

We reached out to CENTCOM for confirmation.

Video emerged on social media purporting to show attacks on the base.

Muwaffaq Salti, as we have frequently reported, has come under attack numerous times. In March, CNN obtained imagery from Planet Labs showing an AN/TPY-2 radar damaged, or even possibly destroyed, following an Iranian attack there.

The air base has long been a major regional hub for U.S. operations, and is being very actively utilized in the current conflict. It hosts the greatest concentration of U.S. tactical aircraft in the region, and thus is an extremely important target, where, as we pointed out last night, even one ballistic missile landing on an apron could destroy multiple prized aircraft and take the lives of U.S. service members or cause injuries.

Iran also hit Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia yesterday, Axios reporter Barak Ravid stated on X.

In addition, officials in Kuwait yesterday said one of the country’s power and water desalination plants “was attacked as a result of the Iranian aggression…leading to a fire and damage to the plant’s facilities and several electricity generating units.”

“The fire is now under control and repairs are ongoing,” the Kuwait government added.

The two deaths and the injuries came as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is escalating rapidly, with each side now attacking critical infrastructure and Iran intensifying strikes on U.S. bases across the region.

Amid the fighting, “Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Qaribabadi stated that Tehran has suspended its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Washington as United States attacks continue,” the official Fars News Agency reported.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday unleashed a new wave of strikes on Iranian targets. The attacks, on Iran’s Greater Tunb Island, came as the newly restored blockade on Iranian ports entered its first full day and the command began ordering ships headed to Iran to turn around. Meanwhile, Iran claims it damaged several U.S. military facilities in new rounds of missile and drone attacks in the region.

“CENTCOM launched precision munitions against coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island during the 90-minute wave,” the command stated on X. “The strikes further degraded Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” The island, located at the western mouth of the Strait, sits about 30 miles south of the Iranian coast and about 50 miles northwest of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which also lays claim to it, along with the Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb islands that Iran seized in 1971.

Greater Tunb Island was a frequent target during Operation Epic Fury. A little more than two miles across at its widest point, it hosts a “vast network of underground bunkers,” created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to the Israeli Alma Research and Education Center think tank. “These underground facilities are believed to be storing anti-ship missiles and other weapons threatening freedom of navigation and commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.”

In a subsequent X post, CENTCOM stated that since “restarting the naval blockade against Iranian ports 17 hours ago, U.S. forces have redirected 2 commercial vessels attempting to run the blockade. The U.S. military remains vigilant and prepared to ensure full compliance.”

In its announcement on Tuesday that the blockade had been reimposed, CENTCOM stated that there are “currently more than 20 U.S. Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East. American forces remain vigilant, lethal, and ready.”

Control over the Strait has been at the center of most of the flare-ups of violence that have taken place after a shaky ceasefire was agreed to by the U.S. and Iran on April 8. They’ve often involved Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait followed by U.S. kinetic responses. However, these kinetic encounters have been intensifying over the past five days, leading President Donald Trump to order the resumption of the naval blockade on Iranian ports. It went into effect at 11:30 PM local time on Tuesday.

As we have frequently noted, the blockade was lifted on June 17 when the U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The MoU provided a 60-day extension of the ceasefire to iron out an agreement to end fighting throughout the region, including Lebanon, prevent Iran from seeking nuclear weapons, end U.S. sanctions and resume the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, among other points.

Iran, as we noted earlier in this story, said it carried out a number of retaliatory strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan as it has over the past five days. All three nations host an array of U.S. military facilities.

The Iranian Army’s public relations office said it “launched a seventh wave of drone strikes on U.S. bases in the region on Wednesday, targeting F-18 facilities and support infrastructure at al-Azraq in Jordan,” Iran’s official Mehr news outlet stated on Wednesday. The strikes “were part of ‘Operation Thunderbolt’ and followed six earlier waves of drone attacks on U.S. positions since the American violation of the ceasefire and the start of ‘brutal attacks’ on Iranian territory.”

TWZ cannot independently confirm Iran’s claims and CENTCOM declined comment.

“Jordan’s military intercepted three Iranian missiles,” The New York Times reported, citing a statement carried by the official Petra news agency. “The Kuwait Army said earlier that its air defenses were intercepting hostile targets, while Bahrain’s interior ministry said warning sirens had been activated. None of the countries have reported damage or casualties from strikes on Wednesday.”

However, images and videos have emerged online purporting to show damage at several installations in the wake of Iranian attacks over the past several days.

The following post on X uses satellite imagery from Iranian state media to claim damage to an anti-drone radar system at Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan; however, its low resolution makes it hard to confirm that claim.

The prospects for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran have reached the most perilous point since the two warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in April. A day after ordering the most intense wave of airstrikes on Iran since that agreement went into effect, President Donald Trump on Wednesday proclaimed that he could resume striking Iran as early as tonight and restore the naval blockade after saying he believed the ceasefire was over.

His comments came after Iran attacked tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz. There were also unconfirmed reports that Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. warships.

You can read about yesterday’s exchange of fire in our story here.

Meanwhile, Iranian official media declared that the Memorandum of Understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days to continue negotiations, worked out in Pakistan, is no longer in effect.

“The Islamabad Agreement is Dead,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-connected Tasnim media outlet stated on Telegram. 

This latest and most serious flare-up of tensions came after Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, as we reported. The attacks came during a pause in negotiations for the week-long funeral procession for the former Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attacks.

In response to those attacks, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it hit 85 targets across southern Iran, including “air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.”

Wednesday morning, Trump amped up the rhetoric during several bilateral meetings at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.

“We hit them very hard last night — very, very hard — and we’ll probably hit them hard again tonight,” Trump proffered. “They’re cuckoo. There’s something wrong with these people. For 47 years, they’ve been the bully of the Middle East… It’s very simple: they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump also shed additional light on yesterday’s attacks by CENTCOM.

“We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece,” Trump stated. “I said, ‘Don’t touch the oil, because maybe we’ll take over Kharg Island.’ We may take over Kharg Island. It’s not a thing they can do about it, but I said, ‘Don’t hit the pipes, just hit everything else,’ and they hit it. They may hit it again tonight.”

You can read about what it would take to attack Kharg Island in our story here.

Trump also hinted that the naval blockade on Iran, lifted when the MoU was signed on June 17, might be resumed.

“And we may put down the blockade,” the American leader suggested. “We may put it back… and it will only be a blockade for Iran.” 

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon was prepared to resume attacks at an even higher level.

“Anything used to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Anything they thought they had rebuilt or capability they were using was a target last night—and tonight, if we need to, on your order, Mr. President, we will hit even more, and even deeper,” he said.

All this came after Trump professed that the ceasefire had ended.

“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump exclaimed. “I don’t want to deal with them, but they’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum, they’re sick people, they’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it.”

Iran, for its part, said that it struck 85 targets in Kuwait and Bahrain after the U.S. attacks.

Kuwaiti officials said they downed all the missiles and drones fired at them.

A U.S. official told us that damage to American facilities in the region was minimal.

“Regarding last night: No U.S. injuries. All missiles and drones fired by Iran were intercepted or failed to hit anything or cause major damage,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “Bottom line, Iran’s response was defeated.”

As for the future of negotiations, as we noted earlier in this story, Iran is also painting a grim picture.

“Trump, the self-proclaimed terrorist, officially announced the end of the Islamabad Agreement; an agreement that, although earnestly pursued by Iranian negotiators who emphasized the continuation of the struggle and acknowledged that dishonesty is inherent in the United States, was from the beginning clearly understood to be an agreement that would not be honored by the Americans, especially if Iran insisted on its rights,” Tasnim stated. “Trump and the terrorist U.S. government failed to implement the most important clause of the agreement, Clause 1, from the very beginning. Despite the efforts of officials, this agreement was essentially dead from the start, due to the Americans’ broken promises, and only last night was its death officially announced.”

Aside from taking swipes at Iran, Trump also lashed out at Spain for failing to allow the U.S. to have access to its airspace during Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. has several key military installations there, including Naval Station Rota and Moron Air Base. Both facilities had been used as staging grounds ahead of the attack on Iran.

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO,” Trump complained at a news conference in Ankara with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits.”

Meanwhile, Rutte noted that Spain was an outlier when it came to supporting the U.S. war.

“I would say these are isolated cases; 5000 planes taking off from European airports in support of Epic Fury, it was Europe as one, big platform of power projection for the United States helping with Epic Fury,” Rutte explained.

As we have frequently seen since Operation Epic Fury was launched, tough talk from Trump or the Iranians does not always translate into action and things can and have quickly changed. Still, given what is at stake, we will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates when warranted.

UPDATE: 2:05 PM EDT –

Despite all these harsh statements from both sides, one former CENTCOM commander tells us that a resumption of full-scale hostilities is not inevitable.

“I think the immediate way forward will be controlled escalation focused on a military campaign to degrade the regime’s ability to disrupt activities in the Gulf,” Joseph Votel, who led the command from March 2016 to March 2019, told us. “The targets struck last evening seem to support this and I suspect this is where we are heading.”

“I would expect, as the President said, that we will reimpose the blockade against ships transiting to and from Iranian ports,” added Votel, now a Distinguished Military Fellow at the Middle East Institute. “I think this is what we will see for the next few days until there is greater clarification on where all this is leading.”

The future, however, remains uncertain.

“I don’t know if there is an immediate off-ramp – the next day or two will tell us that,” Votel surmised. “If we strike tonight – that may lead to Iranian counter-strikes against U.S. partners hosting American forces. I think Iran will continue to try to impose costs on us by disrupting the Strait and targeting of Gulf nations that support us.”

As for the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), Votel said: “I think we will see (at least in the short term) control of the SoH to be similar to what we saw before the signing of the June 17th MOU – the U.S. largely in control but with Iran continuing to periodically disrupt and impact shipping and commerce.”

Meanwhile, a high-ranking Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) official we spoke with said a resumption of full-blown hostilities or Israel carrying out a new wave of attacks is not a foregone conclusion.

“My assessment is that the current ceasefire is fragile, but I do not believe we are on the verge of a return to full-scale war,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “Despite President Trump’s recent remarks, I think his preferred course of action will be to restore and tighten economic sanctions while preserving the option of limited, targeted military strikes against specific Iranian assets if necessary. I do not believe the United States has a strategic interest in becoming involved in another prolonged military campaign unless Iran fundamentally changes the situation through a major escalation.”

The official added that the IDF is ready to resume attacks on Iran if called upon, but that whether it will be remains unknown.

“The IDF itself is not the limiting factor. Israel remains highly prepared, and the military retains credible operational options across the region,” said the official. “Readiness, however, should not be confused with intent. Military capability exists regardless of whether the political leadership decides to employ it.”

“Ultimately, I believe the decisive variable is Washington rather than Jerusalem,” he added. “Any major Israeli operation against Iran would almost certainly require at least tacit American political support and close strategic coordination with the United States. For that reason, I have greater confidence in assessing Netanyahu’s preferences than in predicting President Trump’s decisions.”

Trump “has demonstrated that he is capable of taking decisive military action when he believes it serves American interests, but he has also shown that he is pragmatic and willing to halt escalation when he concludes that continued conflict no longer advances those interests,” the IDF official postulated.

“In short, my expectation is that the near-term strategy will be one of deterrence rather than renewed war: tighter economic pressure on Iran, continued intelligence and covert activities, and the option of limited military strikes if required,” the official continued. “A return to a broad regional conflict remains possible, but in my view it would most likely require a significant Iranian escalation rather than being initiated by either Washington or Jerusalem.”

UPDATE: 5:30 PM EDT –

The U.S. has resumed striking Iran as Trump said he would, according to CENTCOM.

“At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”

At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 8, 2026

Videos purporting to show those attacks are emerging online.

Video footage shows the moment that U.S. strikes targeted Chabahar City in Southern Iran earlier tonight, with the strikes reportedly impacting an air and naval base operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). pic.twitter.com/AwXdsgGnXC

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 8, 2026

As the ongoing U.S. strikes against Iran have already exceeded the scale of last night’s strikes, a U.S. official has told Reuters that the strikes will indeed be greater in scale and number than previous waves of U.S. strikes. The U.S. targeting of an IRGC barracks in Bushehr is… pic.twitter.com/4oTqMUYCLw

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 8, 2026

UPDATE: 5:51 PM EDT –

“This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “If it happens again, it will get much worse!”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces have launched “a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.” The U.S. strikes “are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM stated on X. “Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

The official Iranian state media outlet IRIB reported 13 explosions in southern Iran.

The CENTCOM attacks follow the U.S. Treasury Department revoking a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil. That abrogates a key part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on June 18.

Here’s the new Treasury license on Iran: “Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin” pic.twitter.com/2jgRRTQudu

— Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) July 7, 2026

While the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its stockpile of enriched uranium are among other key issues addressed in the document, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a flashpoint.

The latest attacks on shipping all involved tankers.

“A LNG tanker reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side engine room causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound through the SOH,” UKMTO reported. That incident took place about eight nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.

Before that, a “VLCC reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side upon exiting the SOH” about 16 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE, UKMTO added. “Vessel was able to proceed to NPOC [nearest point of call] and no crew injuries were reported.”

The first of the three vessels struck today was a tanker that reported being attacked six nautical miles east of Musandam Peninsula, Oman “by an unknown projectile and has sustained minor structural damage,” UKMTO stated. “No casualties or environmental impact reported and vessel is proceeding to NPOC.”

These attacks all took place along the southern-most route in the Strait, which is controlled by the U.S. and Oman. Iran controls the northern route and the mid-section of the body of water is considered too dangerous to transit due to the threat of mines.

Last Thursday, Iran’s military warned that all oil tankers moving through the Strait must use its approved routes. It also said that interference by U.S. forces in the strait “will be met with a rapid and decisive reaction.”

But the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational body overseen by the U.S. Navy, told shippers Monday that the route around Oman “has been expanded and remains available for all traffic.”

The most recent attacks on shipping came after that JMIC notification and about a week after Iran and the U.S. promised to stop striking each other. 

What happens next is unknown. The peace talks were paused while Iran holds a weeklong funeral for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in an airstrike.

In an interview with Iranian media posted on X, Iranian Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, seemed to appeal to Iranian hardliners who want to resume fighting.

“Friends who oppose negotiations, be patient; the Americans themselves will derail these talks,” he posited.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 6:22 PM EDT –

Video and still images purporting to show the U.S. attacks on Iran are emerging on social media. Bandar Abbas, site of Iran’s key naval base on the Strait of Hormuz, appears to be one of the targets. Bandar Abbas has come under attack several times during this conflict.

Fires seen burning at the Port of Shahid Haqqani in Bandar Abbas, Southern Iran, following tonight’s wave of retaliatory strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure sites by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. pic.twitter.com/ccZPuZvDPG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 7, 2026

Bandar Abbas Airport was a major target tonight, where a senior figure in the Islamic regime was present and from where the regime has launched missiles and drones toward neighboring countries. This regime only understands Hebrew and Arabic; it does not understand American… pic.twitter.com/RdDPTgR87T

— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) July 7, 2026

Video from Shahid Haqqani Port, validated by the network, following U.S. airstrikes on the facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran. pic.twitter.com/msNbYm6r7O

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) July 7, 2026

In a post on X, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said the U.S. strikes on Iran today were “four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago.”

The U.S. strikes in Iran on Tuesday were four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago, the U.S. official told me https://t.co/TiDTGTxMTV

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 7, 2026

Authorities “have launched a search effort for K2 Airways Cargo 737 AP-BOI after the flight did not land as scheduled in Karachi,” FlightRadar24 reported. “KTA1732 was en route from Sharjah to Karachi when contact was lost with the aircraft. Preliminary ADS-B data indicate a loss of altitude, followed by a climb, and then a second, sudden and dramatic loss of altitude. The final received data point from the aircraft was at 16:21 UTC, placing the aircraft at 1,100 ft AMSL with a reported vertical rate of -22,400 feet per minute.”

According to FlightRadar24’s data, the cargo jet flew east over the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman when it disappeared from radar screens at about 12:20 PM EDT.

The Pakistan Airports Authority reported on X that the aircraft was suffering a “navigational system issue” before contact was lost. There were five people onboard at the time.

However; at time 2121PST aircraft was observed on RADAR rapidly descending and with rapid heading change, subsequently RADAR contact and communication was lost approximately 155 NM west of Karachi.

— Pakistan Airports Authority (@Pk_PAA_Official) July 7, 2026

The exact cause of this incident is unknown at this time. While there are no indications that the aircraft was lost due to hostile activity, the area is extremely tense.

UPDATE: 947 PM EDT –

CENTCOM says it has “completed its strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

“U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor,” the command said in a statement.

“Iran recently attacked three commercial vessels transiting the strait including Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity,” CENTCOM added. “The unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces is a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire and undermines freedom of navigation. CENTCOM forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed.”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The Ukrainian SBU launched a drone strike on Russia’s Saki Air Base in Crimea on Friday. The attack, the latest in a string of strikes against Russian aviation and logistic assets on the peninsula, is part of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest campaign to inflict so much pain on Russia that Vladimir Putin moves to end the war.

SBU claimed to have destroyed several Russian tactical combat jets today as well as on Wednesday. Saki is home to the Russian Navy’s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, which flies mostly Su-30SM Flankers. It has been a frequent target of Ukrainian strikes and was hit by a devastating attack in the early days of the war.

“At the ‘Saki’ airfield, seven hangars storing aviation equipment were hit, in which Su-30SM, Su-30, and Su-24 fighter jets and frontline bombers were located,” SBU added. “According to preliminary information, at least seven aircraft were destroyed or damaged.”

SBU told us it had no visual evidence from either attack to back their claim, but we reached out to Vantor to see if they had any satellite imagery of the base. Vantor provided us a picture that showed damage to four hardened aircraft shelters that was taken this morning. Some of shelters have clear damage to their structures, others literally have their doors blown off and laying on the taxiway in front of them. From the overhead angle of the image, it is impossible to determine if aircraft were in those shelters at the time, and if they were, what, if any damage, was inflicted. In addition, we can’t tell when this happened from just one picture, although imagery we reviewed from Planet Labs dating to June 27th doesn’t appear to show the same damage to the shelters.

It is very possible that any aircraft in those shelters could have been damaged by fire, as the SBU claimed, or by shrapnel, but we just don’t know. Regardless, the shelters remain generally intact. We have written frequently about Russia’s efforts to protect its aircraft this way, including on Crimea.

Regardless, these attacks come after months of Ukrainian strikes on bridges connecting the peninsula with the mainland and on it’s fuel infrastructure. The situation has gotten so bad on Crimea that the officials there have tried to initiate gasoline rationing, making life miserable at the height of the traditional summer vacation season there.

Amid the ongoing Ukrainian pressure campaign, a Russian military officer said he recently took part in an exercise to see what it would take to fend off Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.

“I participated in the operational command-staff military game ‘Crimean Alert,’” Russian reserve colonel and military expert Viktor Murakhovsky claimed on Telegram. “The game was dedicated to the landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea and our measures to repel it. The staffs were organized according to the scenario from officers (in reserve and retired) of our armed forces.”

“The ‘Blue’ side acted unconventionally, widely using the latest means of detection and destruction,” he added. “The ‘Red’ side was forced to act ‘on the defensive.’ Overall, the exercises went smoothly and at a high level thanks to the organizers.”

Clearly, Ukraine does not possess much of a Navy, let alone landing craft to carry out a Normandy-style invasion. However, that is not the scenario played out in this wargame, according to an analysis by the award-winning The Insider news outlet.

“The scenario clearly simulates an amphibious or maritime operation: numerous blue arrows and routes are drawn across the Black Sea, extending from the direction of Odesa and the northwestern Black Sea toward Crimea,” the publication noted. “Red defensive positions are marked on the map within Crimea, particularly around Sevastopol, in northern Crimea, and in the eastern part of the peninsula.”

The map “shows the Kerch and Kerch Strait area on the right—also densely marked with red icons—indicating that the game scenario accounted for the eastern flank in addition to western Crimea and Sevastopol,” The Insider proffered. “Judging by Murakhovsky’s post, the scenario likely envisioned not a classic World War II-style amphibious landing—with hundreds of ships approaching the shore—but rather a modern operation involving the mass use of drones, long-range precision-guided weapons, reconnaissance systems, and possibly small, high-speed boats.”

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has for years been using its air and sea drones to attack Russian air defenses and radars inland, its seaports and largely driven the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea through the use of its innovative sea drone campaign.

Ukraine, as we reported in the past, has already carried out several incursions on the peninsula. In October 2023, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sent a small raiding party into a point north of Tarkhankut Bay. It was carried out by troops traversing the Black Sea on Sea-Doo GTX 300 personal watercraft. They were loaded down by grenade launchers, machine guns, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and other equipment needed to assault Russian positions. You can read more about that raid in our interview with the unit commander here.

Those attacks did not lead to a sustained presence, but they were not intended to. They were meant as a morale-boosting reminder to Moscow that Crimea would never be completely out of reach.

Whether Ukraine can marshal enough of its asymmetric assets and troops to really carry out any sort of a wide-scale amphibious landing on Crimea remains questionable bordering on impossible. One thing, however, is not. Ukraine is inflicting significant amounts of pain on Russian forces and assets on the peninsula.

UPDATE: 4:49 PM EDT –

Vantor provided us with additional satellite images of Saki. A very cursory analysis shows that six out of seven hardened aircraft shelters were damaged, with doors blown off of four of them.

There appears to be possible damage to two other shelters seen in a wider shot of Saki.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The U.S. Navy has now made it clear it is at least exploring an alternative to the still-in-development AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile-Extended Range (AARGM-ER). When the Advanced Emission Suppression Missile (AESM) effort first emerged earlier this year, the stated requirements did sound curiously similar to what the service wants from the AGM-88G. There was also mention of an all-new need to be able to engage radio frequency-emitting targets in the air, as well as on the surface, but this is no longer being emphasized, at least publicly.

The new contracting notice raises questions about the future of the AARGM-ER program, which the Navy told TWZ in April was still on track to be fielded later this year. The service had also previously announced a “strategic pause” in purchases of AGM-88Gs, but only for the 2027 Fiscal Year. The AARGM-ER is a direct evolution of the existing AGM-88E Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile (AARGM).

Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) issued a new AESM request for information (RFI) yesterday. NAVAIR had previously put out a contract notice regarding this new missile back in February, but subsequently took it down.

NAVAIR is now looking “to conduct market research to identify potential sources capable of providing an AARGM-ER equivalent missile system,” according to the new RFI. This “consists of the All-Up-Round (AUR) missile to include hardware and software, as well as any unique logistics elements, trainers, AARGM-ER equivalent flyout model, and all system verification elements.”

“The purpose of this RFI is to conduct market research to identify potential sources capable of providing a mature design (TRL >6) missile system which consists of the All-Up-Round (AUR) missile to include hardware and software, as well as any unique logistics elements, trainers, flyout model, and all system verification elements,” the notice adds. “This AUR must be compatible with existing launch platforms.”

TRL here refers to the U.S. government’s Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale, which is used to categorize the maturity of munitions and other systems. TRL 6 is defined as an effort that has produced a “representative model or prototype system” that has been “tested in a relevant environment.” The “relevant environment” here can include high-fidelity laboratory conditions or be otherwise simulated.

The latest desired requirements for AESM are very broad and fully in line with what the Navy has said for years that it expects to gain from the fielding of the AGM-88G.

AESM needs to have “extended range,” allowing it to be “capable of engaging targets at significant standoff distances.” It has to include an “advanced anti-radiation seeker with broad frequency coverage” and the “ability to target modern and advanced radar systems.” In terms of “lethality,” the goal is to achieve a “high probability of kill against a wide range of targets.”

Like the AARGM-ER, AESM needs to be suitable for internal and external carriage on at least certain variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets are also listed as threshold launch platforms.

The original AESM RFI in February had laid out more specific requirements, which are absent in the new contracting notice. This includes an explicit call for prospective vendors to describe their proposed missile’s “ability to engage air-to-air and air-to-ground targets.”

There has been no mention in the past about an air-to-air engagement capability for the AGM-88G. It’s unclear whether this is still an area of interest for AESM. TWZ has reached out to the Navy for more information about the current state of AESM and how that factors into plans for AARGM-ER.

With added air-to-air engagement capability, AESM would open the door to new operational possibilities and could be more complementary to AARGM-ER. As we previously wrote after the first RFI was released:

“U.S. military interest in very-long-range air-to-air capable anti-radiation missiles traces all the way back to the Cold War, primarily as a means for engaging enemy airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) planes. Anti-air weapons designed around this role are often colloquially referred to as ‘AWACS killers,’ a reference to the U.S. E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. A very-long-range air-to-air missile could be used against other aerial targets, as well.”

…

“All that being said, the value of an ‘AWACS killer’ missile is clear-cut. AEW&C are critical surveillance and battle management assets. Shooting them down deprives an opponent of those capabilities, inherently reducing their ability to effectively maneuver air assets and share important information, including with other nodes on the ground or at sea, as well as in the air. Knocking out these flying radar stations, which can be especially well-suited to spotting lower flying threats from their high perches, just hampers an enemy’s overall situational awareness.“

“The issue, of course, is that AEW&C planes typically orbit well behind the front edges of a conflict, creating additional challenges for targeting them. This is where something like AESM could come into play. A weapon of this type could engage other aerial targets by zeroing in on the radiofrequency emissions they pump out. This could include electronic warfare aircraft, and potentially other aerial targets. AESM might be able to take on a more general anti-air role with the addition of an active radar and/or imaging infrared seeker, as well as datalinks allowing for the use of networked targeting data. AARGM and AARGM-ER both feature an active millimeter-wave radar seeker to enable them to hit fleeing ground targets, but a similar concept could be adapted for air-to-air use.”

“For the Navy, as well as other branches of the U.S. military, this is all particularly relevant in the context of a potential future high-end fight with China, which has made major investments in its fleets of AEW&C and electronic warfare planes. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also been pursuing ever-longer-ranged anti-air missiles, including types that could be used to target American AEW&C platforms, as well as other key support aircraft.”

AESM would also still have the ability to be employed in an air-to-surface mode like the AGM-88G and its predecessors. Having a single missile with hybrid anti-air/anti-radiation capabilities would offer very useful added flexibility, especially for addressing threats that might suddenly appear during a sortie. This would also offer magazine depth benefits, since a launch aircraft loaded with AESMs would inherently have more engagement opportunities against a wider target set than one carrying a mixture of AARGM-ERs and traditional air-to-air missiles.

AARGM F-18

This could slot in well with the rest of the Navy’s planned future air-launched missile ecosystem, which at least currently includes the AGM-88G, as well as the AIM-174B air-launched version of the multi-purpose Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and the AIM-260 advanced air-to-air missile. These missiles fit into ever-expanding ‘kill web’ architectures made up of deeply integrated networks of sensors and other assets from across the services, spread across the air, land, sea, space, and even cyberspace domains. TWZ previously explored all of this in a detailed feature you can find here.

How The Navy’s New Very Long-Range AIM-174 Will Pierce China’s Anti-Access Bubble

It’s also worth remembering that the U.S. Air Force has worked with the Navy on similar hybrid anti-air/anti-radiation missile efforts in the past. The Air Force also just recently put out its own call for information about a prospective common missile with a range of at least 1,000 miles, that could come in air-to-air and air-to-surface versions. AESM might further emerge as a joint-service effort and/or one that involves foreign participation.

At the same time, the downplaying of more specific capabilities in the rebooted AESM RFI can only prompt questions about the future of the AGM-88G. The Navy has been actively pursuing AARGM-ER since 2018. The missile’s increased speed and range are viewed as vital for future conflicts, especially when it comes to ensuring survivability and effectiveness of non-stealthy launch platforms as adversary anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) bubbles continue to expand in scale and scope.

However, the AARGM-ER program has encountered technical issues in development and suffered significant delays. The original goal was for the missile to reach initial operational capability (IOC) on the F/A-18E/F and EA-18G in 2023. The Navy is now aiming to hit that milestone by September of this year. There are foreign customers also still in line to receive AARGM-ERs, and Italy is notably a full partner in the missile’s development. The Air Force is pursuing a derivative, called the Stand-in Attack Weapon (SiAW) and reportedly designated the AGM-88J, intended to provide a more general strike capability.

“U.S. procurements for the AARGM-ER program are planned to resume once the system has successfully completed all necessary testing and software updates. Our immediate priority is ensuring the weapon passes these rigorous testing milestones to achieve Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in September 2026,” a Navy spokesperson told TWZ back in February about the status of the program and the aforementioned strategic pause. “After validating the software and testing, the plan would be to ramp up production to clear a backlog of over 150 missiles, with U.S. procurements officially restarting in FY28 [Fiscal year 2028]. In the interim, FY27 production will be allocated to Foreign Military Sales to fulfill our commitments to five signed international cases.”

It is worth noting here that the Navy seeking a functional equivalent to the AGM-88G does not automatically mean it is considering supplanting that missile entirely. Diversification of the supply chains, especially by leveraging new and non-traditional vendors, has become a top priority across the U.S. military in recent years. Efforts to broaden the defense industrial base, with an explicit emphasis on less reliance on traditional prime contractors, have surged further since President Donald Trump started his second term. More industrial base diversity offers benefits for scaling up production of subcomponents and complete systems. Another key aspect of these initiatives has been avoiding getting locked into a single vendor for key programs, helping to foster competition that can drive down costs.

Having an alternative source of missiles that are even just roughly similar to the AARGM-ER capability-wise could be very valuable for bolstering stockpiles now and ensuring they can be replenished in the future, especially in the midst of a sustained high-end fight. The lead time for the acquisition of exquisite munitions is often measured in months, if not years. Concerns about the sufficiency of U.S. stockpiles of key missiles have already been growing in recent years due to a succession of global crises, something TWZ has regularly called attention to. This has become an even more pressing topic given the expenditures of critical munitions during the latest conflict with Iran. The Pentagon has signed several new deals with various companies in the past year or so to expand and accelerate production of existing and new missiles, underscoring just how significant the demand signal has become. Still, it will take time for those contracts to bear fruit, reinforcing the value of having additional streams of relevant munitions.

Much remains to be learned about the Navy’s exact intentions with AESM and how it fits in with the current plans for AARGM-ER. What we do know now is that the service is actively looking at options for a new missile that offers at least equivalent capability to the AGM-88G.

Update: 4:30 PM ET –

An annual assessment of multiple high-profile U.S. military procurement programs that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released today provides some additional context about the AARGM-ER program.

“The AARGM-ER program continued to experience significant delays due to software problems discovered during testing. Software development challenges were also a main driver of prior delays. According to the program, a February 2025 flight test failed due to a software issue, which it attributed to a lack of rigor in the contractor’s software development and testing process,” per GAO’s report. “The program did not use a modern approach to software, and the program office did not have visibility into software metrics, which could have provided insights into issues sooner. Program officials stated that the contractor updated its software development processes, and the program instituted additional software reviews for future flight tests.”

“The program is conducting four flight tests in fiscal year 2026 before fielding an initial operational capability,” the report adds. “According to program officials, the December flight test was successful. The program expected to reach initial operational capability in July 2024, but officials now expect to do so over 2 years later in September 2026.”

The Congressional watchdog’s assessment also speaks to continued challenges with production.

“The AARGM-ER program continues to experience production delays. The program reported that the delays were related to missile qualification, hardware capability, and software problems discovered during testing. Program officials expect initial missile deliveries to start in mid-2026,” the report explains. “Initial missile deliveries were originally planned for late 2023. According to program officials, they withheld certain payments to the contractor due to the delays. The program also told the contractor it will not accept missile deliveries until qualification and flight tests verify the missile is safe to employ and performs as expected. The program expects to complete missile qualification in June 2026. We found that starting production before demonstrating a system will work as intended—which the Navy did—increases the risk of discovering deficiencies that require costly, time-intensive rework.”

It is worth noting here that the AESM RFI released yesterday also calls for lower-cost designs that could be produced at a rate of 600 missiles per year. This is twice the production scale outlined back in February.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

U.S. Central Command said it struck Iranian targets today in response to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attack on a cargo vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. This marks the first U.S. kinetic response against Iran since Washington and Tehran signed a Memorandum of Understanding about a peace deal last Friday.

CENTCOM said the strikes were “a powerful response to yesterday’s attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” The command added that “U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites after Iran hit M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 with a one-way attack drone. The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of Iran’s attack.”

That incident “clearly violated the ceasefire,” the command proclaimed. “Furthermore, Iran’s dangerous behavior undermined freedom of navigation as commerce increasingly flows through the vital international trade corridor.”

As we noted yesterday, the attack on the Ever Lovely prompted the U.N. International Maritime Organization (IMO) to pause its plan to evacuate hundreds of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf which has been largely closed since Iran was attacked by the U.S. and Israel.

Earlier on Friday, President Donald Trump told reporters “We’ll find out,” when asked if Iran faced any consequences for the ship attack.

Asked if he considered the ceasefire to still be in place, the president said: “I don’t like the fact that they took a shot yesterday. Actually, four, we knocked down three at a ship, not an allied ship, but a ship, a very expensive ship, and it was fine, but it took a little beating. They shouldn’t be doing that. You’ll find out.”

There was no immediate military response from Iran, a U.S. official told us. However, as we have reported in the past, these kinds of attacks have resulted in tit-for-tat kinetic actions between the two nations. We also do not know the level of command and control the Iranian government has over hardline IRGC elements and if these kinds of attacks are occurring independent of the government leadership’s wishes.

In its post on X, CENTCOM said its forces CENTCOM forces “continue to provide safe passage coordination and support to commercial vessels transiting the strait. The U.S. military remains present and vigilant to ensure all aspects of the agreement with Iran are adhered to, obeyed, and in full force and effect.”

The U.S. and Iran continue to negotiate over a future peace deal, but many sticking points remain, including how the country’s nuclear material will be dealt with and future nuclear operations monitored.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 5:56 PM EDT –

After the U.S. airstrikes, Iran reiterated that it will continue to hold at risk shipping in the Strait that does not follow its rules for transit.

“Iran has repeatedly stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to what it was before the U.S. attack on Iran,” the official Iranian IRIB media outlet stated on X. “Any transit through the Strait must follow the routes announced by Iran; otherwise, the security of vessels cannot be guaranteed.”

UPDATE: 8:05 PM EDT-

The IRGC Navy claims it “struck American military targets in the region in retaliation for earlier aggression against Iranian coastal areas,” the official Iranian Press TV media outlet reported.

“The force made the remarks in a statement issued on Friday, saying its reprisal ‘targeted the deployment sites of the US terrorist military in the region,’” the outlet added.

However, there was no visual proof provided of any attack.

CENTCOM declined comment.