Unemployment

A sluggish job market lowers consumer confidence but may also lead to another rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year.

United States consumer confidence sagged in November as households worried about jobs and their financial situation, likely in part because of the recently ended government shutdown.

The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index dropped to 88.7 this month, from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October, hitting its lowest level since April.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had forecast the index edging down to 93.4 from the previously reported 94.6 in October.

“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.

“Mentions of the labour market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”

Consumer confidence remained low among all income brackets. While confidence among those who make less than $15,000 annually ticked up slightly, it still remained the group with the lowest consumer confidence.

The consumer confidence report was released amid a slowing labour market. The September jobs report, released late last week, showed 119,000 jobs were added to the US economy as the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 of a percentage point to 4.4 percent.

However, there is limited economic data available to fully gauge the sentiment of the US economy because the government shutdown, the longest in US history, hindered federal agencies’ ability to gather the data needed to assess current conditions.

“More worries about what lies ahead … hence, putting purchases for major items on hold,” Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO, wrote to Reuters.

The economic data followed dovish comments from policymakers in the past few days that helped cement rate cut expectations.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the job market was weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December although action beyond that depended on a flood of data that was delayed by the federal government shutdown.

United States job growth accelerated in September despite a cooling job market as the unemployment rate rose.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 119,000 jobs after a downwardly revised 4,000 drop in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released on Thursday.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, up from 4.3 percent in August.

The healthcare sector had the most gains, totalling 43,000 jobs in September. Food and beverage services sectors followed, adding 37,000 jobs, and social assistance employment grew by 14,000.

Other sectors saw little change, including construction, wholesale trade, retail services, as well as professional and business services.

The federal workforce saw a decline of 3,000, marking 97,000 jobs cut from the nation’s largest employer since the beginning of the year. Transportation and warehousing, an industry hit hard by tariffs, also saw declines and shed 25,000 jobs in September.

Average wages grew by 0.2 percent, or 9 cents, to $36.67.

Government shutdown hurdles

The September jobs report was initially slated for release on October 3, but was pushed out because of the US government shutdown. The jobs report typically comes out on the first Friday of each month. Because of the 43-day-long shutdown, the US Labor Department was unable to collect the data needed to calculate the unemployment rate for the month of October.

Nonfarm payrolls for the month of October will be released as part of the November employment report, which is slated to be released on December 16.

Heading into the economic data blackout, the BLS had estimated that about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. A drop in the number of migrant workers coming into the US in search of work – a trend which started during the final year of former US President Joe Biden’s term and accelerated under President Donald Trump’s administration – has depleted labour supply.

“Today’s delayed report shows troubling signs below the topline number: the underlying labour market remains weak, leaving working Americans with shrinking opportunities and rising insecurity. Month after month, the Trump economy is producing fewer jobs, more instability, and fewer pathways for families trying to get ahead,” Alex Jacquez, chief of policy for the economic think tank the Groundwork Collaborative, said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera.

Economists estimate the economy now only needs to create between 30,000 and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, down from about 150,000 in 2024.

Behind the stalling growth

The rising popularity of artificial intelligence is also eroding demand for labour, with most of the hits landing on entry-level positions in white collar jobs, and locking recent college graduates out of work. Economists said AI was fueling jobless economic growth.

Others blamed the Trump administration’s trade policy for creating an uncertain economic environment that had hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire.

The US Supreme Court earlier this month heard arguments about the legality of Trump’s import duties, with justices raising doubts about his authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Despite payrolls remaining positive, some sectors and industries are shedding jobs. Some economists believed the September employment report could still influence the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 policy meeting on interest rate decisions.

US central bank officials will not have November’s report in hand at that meeting, as the release date has been pushed to December 16 from December 5. Minutes of the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting published on Wednesday showed many policymakers cautioned that lowering borrowing costs further could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation.

The agency made the announcement as it confronts staffing shortages caused by air traffic controllers who are working unpaid.

The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will reduce air traffic by 10 percent across 40 “high-volume” markets beginning Friday morning to maintain safety during the ongoing government shutdown, it has said.

The agency made the announcement on Wednesday as it confronts staffing shortages caused by air traffic controllers, who are working unpaid, with some calling out of work during the shutdown, resulting in delays across the country.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the agency is not going to wait for a problem to act, saying the shutdown is causing staffing pressures and “we can’t ignore it”.

Bedford and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said they will meet later Wednesday with airline leaders to figure out how to safely implement the reduction.

Widespread delays

The shutdown, now in its 36th day, has forced 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers to work without pay. This has worsened staff shortages, caused widespread flight delays and extended lines at airport security screening.

The move is aimed at taking pressure off air traffic controllers. The FAA also warned that it could add more flight restrictions after Friday if further air traffic issues emerge.

Duffy had warned on Tuesday that if the federal government shutdown continued another week, it could lead to “mass chaos” and force him to close some of the national airspace to air traffic, a drastic move that could upend American aviation.

Airlines have repeatedly urged an end to the shutdown, citing aviation safety risks.

Shares of major airlines, including United Airlines and American Airlines, were down about 1 percent in extended trading.

An airline industry group estimated that more than 3.2 million passengers have been affected by flight delays or cancellations due to rising air traffic controller absences since the shutdown began on October 1. Airlines have been raising concerns with lawmakers about the impact on operations.

Airlines said the shutdown has not significantly affected their business, but have warned bookings could drop if it drags on. More than 2,100 flights were delayed on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, FAA’s Bedford said that 20 percent to 40 percent of controllers at the agency’s 30 largest airports were failing to show up for work.

The federal government has mostly closed as Republicans and Democrats are locked in a standoff in Congress over a funding bill. Democrats have insisted they would not approve a plan that does not extend health insurance subsidies, while Republicans have rejected that.

There is no end in sight to the United States government shutdown.

At least 1.4 million workers are going without pay, while some people on federal aid are worrying about how they will get their next meal.

How can the standoff between Republicans and Democrats be resolved, and what will happen if it goes on?

Presenter: 

Adrian Finighan

Guests: 

Marena Lin – Co-founder of Project Restore Us, a volunteer-led organisation that supports communities facing food insecurity in Los Angeles

Niall Stanage – White House columnist for The Hill newspaper and digital media company in Washington, DC

Chris Tilly – Economist and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles