Ukraines

A controversial Russian general is now in Venezuela leading a rotational advisory mission, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone exclusively. Colonel General Oleg Leontievich Makarevich commands the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Equator Task Force (ETF), Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said. Makarevich is in charge of more than 120 troops who are training Venezuelan forces on a wide range of military functions, according to Budanov. Those activities are not in reaction to the current U.S. military buildup in the region.

The War Zone cannot independently verify Budanov’s claim and we have reached out to the White House, Pentagon and U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) for confirmation. We will update this story with any pertinent details provided. Questions to Budanov were prompted in part by a story in Intelligence Online claiming that an elite Russian drone unit has arrived in Venezuela to teach troops there how to use first-person view (FPV) drones.

The Ukrainian intelligence chief’s comments come as the Trump administration has established a significant presence of U.S. forces in the Caribbean. While Task Force Southern Spear is ostensibly aimed at countering narcotics trafficking in the region, the effort is also focused on pressuring Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. You can catch up with our recent coverage of the ongoing Caribbean operation here.

Makarevich and his troops are likely to remain in Venezuela during any U.S. attack, Budanov suggested.

“I think they will be behind the scenes and officially Russia will try to speak to the U.S. because their units are in Venezuela,” Budanov said. “It’s just a game.”

The Russians are serving as “military advisors and also teachers,” Budanov explained. “In general, it’s infantry, UAV and special forces training.”

Among other things, ETF is also providing Venezuela with signals intelligence, Budanov added.

The deployment of Russian troops to Venezuela is a long-standing rotation that has existed for years, Budanov noted. He also said that GUR has not identified any change in Russian troop levels in Venezuela since Trump’s Caribbean push began. However, it appears that Makarevich, who has been in the South American country since the beginning of the year, has had his deployment there extended, Budanov said. Typical rotations for Russian commanders last about six months, he pointed out.

Makarevich and about 90 Russian officers and other troops are located in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, according to a document Budanov shared with us. The rest are stationed at Maracaibo, La Guaira and Aves Island.

The U.S. likewise has advisors throughout South America who also train troops, offer operational advice and sometimes serve as observers.

As for a high-ranking Russian politician’s claim that Moscow recently provided Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defense systems, Budanov was uncertain.

“The Buk-M2 we see,” he told us. “The Pantsir we don’t know about.”

That politician, Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, also threatened that Russia could increase the supply of advanced weapons to Venezuela, including long-range standoff weapons, like cruise missiles. Another concern for the U.S. could be Russia providing Shahed-family drones capable of striking targets at great distances and at low cost. In the past, Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened that he could provide standoff weapons to America’s enemies, Venezuela among them, as we have previously noted.

A separate document Budanov shared with us provides greater insight into the ETF mission in Venezuela. It explains how Russian troops are providing training in several key areas and assessing the combat capabilities of the Venezuelan Armed Forces. That includes armor, aircraft, artillery, drones and even dogs. In addition, Russia is helping Venezuela monitor domestic groups and foreign governments, according to the document.

We cannot independently confirm the provenance of the document or the accuracy of the information stated within it.

It is interesting to note that Makarevich, 62, was put in charge of this task force. Putin fired him as commander of the Dnipro Group of troops in October 2023 after Ukraine’s successful Kherson counteroffensive. During that operation, Ukrainian forces recaptured Kherson City in November 2022. You can see Russian officials talking about that event, a huge defeat for Russia at the time, in the following video.

Makarevich is also accused by Ukraine of ordering the June 2023 destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam. The incident caused massive flooding and severe economic and environmental damage. At the time, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu blamed Ukraine, saying that Kyiv blew up the dam to prevent Russian offensive actions in the region.

Meanwhile, the world continues to wait on Trump’s decision about what to do with the huge U.S. military presence in the region. It includes the aircraft carrier USS Ford, three of its escort ships, seven other Navy surface warships, a special operations mothership, a wide array of aerial assets and about 15,000 troops.

In another apparent step closer to taking some kind of kinetic action, Trump has “signed off on C.I.A. plans for covert measures inside Venezuela, operations that could be meant to prepare a battlefield for further action,” The New York Times reported.

Asked if Ukraine’s GUR has assets in Venezuela, Budanov offered a coy response.

“We collect all the information about them,” he said.

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Ukraine announced it launched Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles at military targets in Russia. The attack appears to be the first use of these U.S.-made weapons into Russia under the Trump administration. It also points to the strong possibility that another batch of the prized missiles have been supplied to Ukraine, which is noteworthy in itself due to the limited U.S. stocks of the weapons, and/or that the White House has approved the type’s use once again.

“This is a significant development that underscores Ukraine’s unwavering commitment to its sovereignty,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said of the attack. “Despite the ongoing pressure of Russian offensive actions, Ukrainians remain resilient, demonstrating determination and consistent resolve in defending their homeland.”

“The use of long-range strike capabilities, including systems such as ATACMS, will continue,” the Armed Forces General Staff added.

Ukrainian officials provided no details about the ATACMS targets or how many were launched. Newer variants of these missiles can reach to nearly 200 miles, with first generation models having just over half the range.

Ukrainian and Russian mibloggers suggested that Ukraine attacked locations in Russia’s Voronezh region, among them the Pogonovo training area, located roughly 105 miles from the border. However, there is no independent verification of that.

The following video, first published by the Supernova+ Telegram channel, purports to show one of the ATACMS being shot down.

Cluster warheads packed with submunitions would be an ideal weapon to fire at a location where troops might be concentrated in the open. Ukraine used cluster munitions-equipped ATACMS to hit a Russian training ground in the occupied Luhansk region in May 2024 to devastating effect. That strike was also captured on video, which you can see below.

Though Kyiv claimed it will continue using ATACMS, just how many it has left is a mystery. Considering the long stretch between known uses, it likely ran dry for an extended period of time until the U.S. supplied more. The Trump administration could have also blocked the use of the weapons, especially into Russian territory, until now, although we cannot confirm this at this time.

Ukraine still has a number of U.S.-made Army High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 MLRS launchers that fire ATACMs. However, the last of these munitions authorized to be sent to Ukraine by former President Joe Biden arrived in the spring, The Wall Street Journal reported in August. The publication noted that “Kyiv has a small supply left, according to U.S. officials.”

Meanwhile, in March, The Associated Press reported Ukraine ran out of ATACMs. A U.S. official told the wire service at the time that “Ukraine was given fewer than 40 of those missiles overall and that Ukraine ran out of them in late January.”

We cannot confirm that number, but we do know they were not furnished by the many hundreds or anything approaching that number. The U.S. inventory is thought to be the low thousands.

Senior U.S. defense leaders, including the previous Pentagon chief, Lloyd Austin, “had made it clear that only a limited number of the ATACMs would be delivered and that the U.S. and NATO allies considered other weapons to be more valuable in the fight,” according to the AP.

As we previously reported, the first tranche of about 20 early generation, shorter-range ATACMS variants arrived in Ukraine in October 2023 and were apparently mostly used during attacks on Russian-held airfields the same month. Ukraine has used the limited number of these prized weapons it has received with major results. Longer-range variants, which were not introduced into the war until the Spring of 2024, were first used in a wave of attacks on air bases and air defense installations across the Crimean peninsula, according to the Kyiv Post.

A major reason for the limited number of ATACMS given to Ukraine is that U.S. officials have expressed concern about their own stockpiles. However, in December 2023, the U.S. Army began receiving the first tranches of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missiles. The Army, which sees PrSMs as the ATACMS successor, said in September 2023 that the advent of these weapons could reduce some of the readiness risks associated with giving Ukraine ATACMS. It is quite possible that PrSM deliveries had freed-up more ATACMS rounds for Ukraine, and, given the chill between the White House and the Kremlin, these weapons would work both as a tactical tool and a strategic message.

This is especially the case as discussions continue regarding the U.S. supplying even more advanced and longer-range weaponry to Ukraine. While Trump has seemed to sour on giving Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles, more ATACMS, which have far shorter range and do not set a new precedent, would be a likely alternative.

After meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his American counterpart was open to lifting restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, according to The Wall Street Journal. Trump didn’t make any commitments to do so, the newspaper reported.

A month earlier, the Journal wrote that the Pentagon had for months “been blocking Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia.”

“A high-level Defense Department approval procedure, which hasn’t been announced, has prevented Ukraine from firing ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia since late spring,” the Journal added. “On at least one occasion, Ukraine sought to use ATACMS against a target on Russian territory but was rejected.”

The last recorded case of a Ukrainian ATACMS strike inside Russia was on January 14 as part of a massive attack also using U.K.-made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and long-range drones. That took place in the waning days of the Joe Biden administration, which also took a circuitous route in giving Ukraine ATACMS and then allowing them to strike inside Russia. The following graphic, produced as Biden was debating allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with ATACMS, gave a sense of what kinds of targets could be reached.

The first such attack took place almost exactly a year ago. On Nov. 19, 2024, a munitions storage facility near the town of Karachev in the Bryansk region of western Russia was hit by ATACMS. The target was around 70 miles from the Ukrainian border, well within range of these missiles.

There are many questions unanswered about Ukraine’s claimed ATACMS strike today. We have reached out to the White House, Pentagon and State Department to see if we can get some answers about the last time Ukraine was given these weapons and the last time they were used in Russia. We will update this story if they give us any useful details.

While ATACMS did have major lasting battlefield effects, it never proved to be a game-changer based on the tiny quantities provided. But they are another long-range weapon that has existed in Ukraine’s arsenal that packs a punch far heavier than the long-range drones Kyiv has been using across Russia. With Ukraine’s introduction of home-made cruise missiles, this equation is changing, but still, ATACMS are survivable and hit very hard when equipped with a unitary warhead and its cluster warheads can blanket large areas with explosions and shrapnel.

If the strike occurred as stated today, it points to a shift in the Trump administration’s policy when it comes to long-range strikes with U.S. weapons into Russia and it could also indicate the ATACMS supplies are flowing once again.

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Russian attacks killed three people in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region as President Zelenskyy visits Paris to meet President Macron.

For the first time, Ukraine has presented footage that purportedly shows its extended-range Long Neptune cruise missile in action. Part of a growing arsenal of long-range cruise missiles from domestic production, the Long Neptune was unveiled in March of this year, at which point Zelensky claimed it had already been tested in combat.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared a video that he said showed the Long Neptune being launched against a target in Russia. He did not provide the date of the claimed launch or what was targeted.

“We’re producing more,” Zelensky said of the Long Neptune, in a comment posted alongside the video.

Previously, the Ukrainian president disclosed that his forces “successfully used Long Neptunes against designated targets on Russian territory — and this is our entirely just response to Russia’s ongoing terror. Ukrainian missiles are delivering increasingly significant and precise results virtually every month.”

Zelensky added: “I thank everyone working on our missile program and giving Ukraine this accuracy and long-range capability.”

The new video indicates that the Long Neptune is fired from a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) of a different design from that used for at least the original versions of the missile. As well as the longer canisters required for the bigger missiles, there is a larger gap between the first and second axles and the third and fourth axles on the new TEL. Meanwhile, there is no longer a space between the cabin and the command module, as was previously the case.

The Long Neptune is an extended-range derivative of the previous land-attack version of the Neptune anti-ship missile, which is powered by a small turbofan jet engine. The land-attack version reportedly has a guidance package that combines a GPS-assisted inertial navigation system (INS) and an imaging infrared sensor in place of the anti-ship missile’s active radar seeker.

Ukraine famously used Neptune missiles to sink the Russian Navy’s Slava class cruiser Moskva in 2022 and reportedly began developing a new land-attack version in 2023. The anti-ship Neptune is a Ukrainian development of the Soviet-era Kh-35, known to NATO as the SS-N-25 Switchblade, variants of which remain in service in Russia and elsewhere globally.

The Long Neptune features an extended body with capacity for additional fuel, which Zelensky has said gives it a range in the region of 620 miles (1,000 kilometers).

This is significantly further than the original land-attack version of the Neptune, which a Ukrainian defense official previously told TWZ has a range of up to 225 miles (360 kilometers).

Meanwhile, the maximum stated range of the anti-ship version of Neptune is said to be around 190 miles (300 kilometers).

Unclear at this stage is what kind of warhead the Long Neptune carries, but the anti-ship Neptune missile carries an explosive charge weighing around 330 pounds (150 kilograms). The Long Neptune can be distinguished from the previous versions on account of its longer and wider main body, with tapering tail and nose sections. The main fins are also bigger and are not swept.

It’s worth noting that another version of the Neptune has also been developed, this one apparently featuring fuel tank ‘bulges’ for increased range. As you can read about here, this model appears to be something like an intermediate-range version, falling between the original land-attack Neptune and the Long Neptune.

There have been unconfirmed reports that the Long Neptune may have been used in overnight Ukrainian strikes focused on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, in southern Russia. The port is a key hub facilitating the export of Russian oil. The city is also now home to much of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, providing it with something of a safe haven, after its warships were essentially forced out of waters closer to Crimea following a concerted Ukrainian campaign waged against them.

According to Supernova+, a Ukrainian Telegram channel, likely more than one Long Neptune was used to attack Novorossiysk, specifically targeting the Sheskharis oil terminal, which was set ablaze, according to unconfirmed videos circulating on social media.

U.K.-based maritime security firm Ambrey said it had seen evidence of large explosions, including one that occurred in a container yard at the port, leaving a crane and several containers damaged. The same source said that a non-sanctioned container ship alongside the terminal suffered some collateral damage due to falling drone debris. “Reportedly, three crew members were injured,” Ambrey added.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it shot down 216 Ukrainian drones during the attack, during which authorities in Novorossiysk declared a state of emergency. According to state news agency TASS, apartment buildings in the city were struck, and at least two people were injured.

Russian forces have spread rapidly through Pokrovsk, the city in Ukraine’s east where the warring sides have concentrated their manpower and tactical ingenuity during the past week, in what may be a final culmination of a 21-month battle.

Geolocated footage placed Russian troops in central, northern and northeastern Pokrovsk, said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.

Russia sees control of Pokrovsk and neighbouring Myrnohrad as essential to capturing the remaining unoccupied parts of the Donetsk region.

It set its sights on the city almost two years ago, after capturing Avdiivka, 39km (24 miles) to the east.

Ukraine sees the defence of the city as a means of eroding Russian manpower and buying time for the “fortress belt” of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, the largest remaining and most heavily defended cities of Donetsk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded their surrender as part of a land swap and ceasefire he discussed with United States President Donald Trump last August. Ukraine has refused.

A recent US intelligence assessment said Putin was more determined than ever to prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine, NBC reported.

Russia seems to have outmanoeuvred Ukraine by striking its drone operators before they had time to deploy, and cutting off resupply routes at critical points.

“Operational and tactical aircraft, backed by drones, significantly disrupted the Ukrainian army’s logistics in Pokrovsk,” said Russia’s Ministry of Defence on Friday. It said it had destroyed two out of three bridges across the Vovcha River, used by Ukrainian logistics to reach the city.

“Unfortunately, everything is sad in the Pokrovsk direction,” wrote a Ukrainian drone unit calling itself Peaky Blinders on the messaging app Telegram. “The intensity of movements is so great that drone operators simply do not have time to lift the [drone] overboard.”

On October 29, Ukrainian commanders reported only 200 Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk.

Peaky Blinders said Russia was sending as many as 300 into the city a day, “in groups of three people with the expectation that two will be destroyed”.

By neutralising Ukraine’s drone operators and using fibre optic drones immune to jamming, Russia reportedly acquired a numerical drone advantage in the city’s vicinity.

Ukrainian commanders said Russia also took advantage of wet weather, which disadvantaged the use of light, first-person-view drones.

Ukrainian military observer Konstantyn Mashovets said the Russian command had developed these new infiltration tactics to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities – a lack of manpower and gaps among their units.

“The Russian command ‘tried different options’ for some time,” said Mashovets.

“Russian technical innovations, such as first-person-view drones with increased ranges, thermobaric warheads, and ‘sleeper’ or ‘waiter’ drones along [ground lines of communication], allowed Russian forces to … restrict Ukrainian troop movements, evacuations, and logistics,” the ISW said.

As recently as Saturday, Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii framed the battle as one of counterattack rather than defence.

“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. “There is no encirclement or blockade of the cities.”

Yet there was clearly alarm. Ukraine sent its intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, to the Pokrovsk area with military intelligence (GUR) forces to keep supply lines open.

Two Ukrainian military sources told the Reuters news agency that the GUR had successfully landed at least 10 operators in a Blackhawk helicopter near Pokrovsk on Friday.

On Saturday, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed “an operation to deploy a GUR special operations group by a helicopter in 1km (0.6 miles) northwest of [Pokrovsk] was thwarted. All 11 militants who disembarked from the helicopter have been neutralised.”

It was unclear whether the two reports referred to the same group.

Deep air strikes

Russia kept up a separate campaign to destroy Ukraine’s electricity and gas infrastructure, launching 1,448 drones and 74 missiles into the rear of the country from October 30 to November 5.

Ukraine said it intercepted 86 percent of the drones but just less than half the missiles, such that 208 drones and 41 missiles found their targets.

With US help, Ukraine has responded with strikes on Russian refineries and oil export terminals.

Ukraine appeared on Sunday to strike both a Russian oil terminal and, for the first time, two foreign civilian tankers taking on oil there.

Video appeared to show the tankers at Tuapse terminal on the Black Sea on fire, and the governor of Russia’s Krasnodar region confirmed the hit.

“As a result of the drone attack on the port of Tuapse on the night of November 2, two foreign civilian ships were damaged,” he said.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said it intercepted another 238 Ukrainian long-range drones overnight.

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said it struck the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, east of Moscow.

Russian regional authorities also said Ukraine attempted to damage a petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan, 1,500km (930 miles) east of Ukraine.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said it shot down 204 Ukrainian long-range drones overnight.

According to the head of Ukraine’s State Security Service, SBU, Kyiv’s forces have struck 160 oil and energy facilities in Russia this year.

Vasyl Maliuk said a special SBU operation had destroyed a hypersonic ballistic Oreshnik missile on Russian soil.

“One of the three Oreshniks was successfully destroyed on their (Russian) territory at Kapustin Yar,” Maliuk briefed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday.

Russia unveiled the Oreshnik with a strike on the city of Dnipro a year ago. It says it will deploy the missile in Belarus by December.

Ukraine has been lobbying the US government for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of 2,500km (1,550 miles). So far, Trump has refused, on the basis that “we need them too.”

The Pentagon cleared Ukraine to receive Tomahawk missiles, after determining this would not deprive the US military of the stockpile it needs, CNN reported last week, quoting unnamed US and European officials.

The political decision now rests with Trump on whether to send those missiles or not. The report did not specify how many Ukraine could have.