survive

I was so focused on looking ahead to make sure a mountain lion or bear wasn’t emerging from the fog that I didn’t notice the semitruck headed straight for me.

I simultaneously gasped and panicked.

Then my brain caught up with my body. I remembered I was hiking on a closed highway. And I was staring at, thankfully, stationary construction equipment. My heart rate slowed, and then I wondered aloud: “What’s this doing here?”

Construction equipment sits on a turnout on Highway 39 on a closed segment. Caltrans is, yet again, tending to emergency repairs the highway requires after serious storms last winter.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

Last week, I hiked on a foggy, misty day along a 4.4-mile stretch of Highway 39 that’s been closed for almost 50 years, after massive landslides left the road impassable (and too expensive and dangerous to fix). It’s since been a popular hiking and biking route, offering a quiet escape and easy connection to the larger Angeles National Forest. But how long can this road survive the elements, especially with El Niño increasing the odds of substantial storms this winter?

In this week’s edition of The Wild, our weekly outdoors newsletter, I will try to answer that question, which per a recent Reddit discussion, is weighing on local hikers. I can say that, after reporting this out, I actually feel some hope about Highway 39’s future.

On Friday, I began my hike at the start of the highway’s current closure, which lengthens the journey from 4.4 miles to about 6 miles. I parked in a large lot just past the Crystal Lake turnoff.

The gate that leads to the 4.4-mile segment of Highway 39 that has been closed almost 50 years.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

The stretch of Highway 39 that runs from Crystal Lake to Islip Saddle was constructed by inmates from San Quentin and other prisons, opening to traffic on Nov. 6, 1961, according to Times archives. This was part of a long history of California using prison labor — or commonly referred to as “involuntary servitude” by civil rights groups — to construct its roadways. The state is said to have granted workers credits toward reducing their sentences based on the number of days they worked.

The road was quickly at odds with Mother Nature.

Rain during an El Niño winter caused a major landslide in January to February of 1969 near Snow Spring and then again, in February and March of 1978, according to a Caltrans analysis and Times archives.

The roadway has been closed since and remains one of the Caltrans L.A. office’s biggest headaches, as massive boulders frequently tumble down from the jagged mountain side, and landslides remain common. Caltrans, meanwhile, remains bound by state law to maintain the roadway to some degree.

Heaps of scree and dirt line much of the shoulder along the closed segment of Highway 39.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

After my mosey down the closed road, I can easily see why the road is such a headache to repair. A massive boulder blocked most of the right lane (the lane that drivers would take to travel from Azusa to Islip Saddle). Several hillsides had collapsed, sending heaps of scree onto the shoulder or roadway.

One of the biggest challenges, though, for Caltrans is 2.3 miles from the first gate where storms have almost washed out the entire road. The large hole, covered in a thick white material that appears to be plastic, has a steep drop-off into the valley below, resembling someone trying to build an infinity pool in the middle of the forest.

I was surprised to find an active construction project underway.

Highway 39 is often said by influencers and bloggers to be an “abandoned” highway, and although that’s inaccurate, Caltrans has actually tried to relinquish its responsibility of this troubled road. In 2012, the agency asked if either the U.S. Forest Service or Los Angeles County officials would take the reins. Both agencies essentially said, “No thanks!” with the U.S. Forest Service adding that its interpretation of the contract between the state and federal agencies was that Caltrans would actually have to remove the roadway and “return the area to the natural landscape,” according to Times archives.

A large hole where storms destroyed a segment of Highway 39.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

All that‘s to say: Caltrans remains stuck with this road for the foreseeable future and thus has to keep working on it.

Caltrans spokesman Marc Bischoff said in an email that multiple severe winter storms between December 2025 and January 2026 produced higher-than-normal rainfall “that resulted in concentrated runoff down a slope at post mile 40.8 that eroded the slope, berm, and shoulder, and undermined and collapsed the roadway.”

“This section of highway must be repaired as soon as possible to provide access to emergency service response and maintenance vehicles,” Bischoff said. “Work includes excavation and removal of failed roadway and unstable slope material; disposal of material; reconstruction of the embankment; reconstruction of the roadway and shoulder with hot mix asphalt; and placement of erosion control mesh, turf reinforcing mat, fiber rolls, and hydroseeding to stabilize the disturbed slopes and reduce future erosion.”

Tall rock piles line the roadway that’s been closed to vehicles for almost 50 years.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

But Caltrans has plans beyond emergency repairs.

For several years, Caltrans has studied how it should address the future of Highway 39. After weighing several options (including doing nothing) with other state and federal agencies, the agency will move forward with a plan (called Alternative 2) to reopen State Route 39 as an evacuation route for emergency service responders and maintenance crews only. Caltrans will continue to allow hikers and bikers “informal” access to the roadway, according to its January 2025 environmental impact report.

This project is in its design phase. Construction is expected to begin in winter 2032, Bischoff said.

Some of the challenges that Caltrans will face include that, “the highway ascends from an elevation of 5,560 feet above mean sea level (AMSL) at the southern end to 6,670 feet AMSL at the northern end where it intersects with SR-2. The project area is located in the San Gabriel Mountains, within the Transverse Ranges geomorphic province, which is characterized by a complex series of mountain ranges and valleys with dominant east–west trends. Most of the roadway alignment and immediate area is predominantly underlain by slightly to moderately weathered and moderately to intensely fractured igneous intrusive bedrock … Due to the geologic conditions, significant rockfall events have occurred at numerous locations throughout the project area,” according to its environmental impact report.

A view of an open stretch of Highway 39 that leads to Crystal Lake Recreation Area, which includes a large campground and cafe.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

During construction, Caltrans might restrict access, though, when it is unsafe for hikers and bikers to pass through. I didn’t see any construction workers or signage barring access when I went. Please follow posted signage, as it’s generally there for your safety.

This closed stretch is even more important to hikers after a massive storm pummeled Angeles Crest Highway, leading Caltrans to close the roadway just past Three Points. (If you’re wondering about what El Niño could potentially do to Highway 2, check out my recent article.)

Clouds dissipate in the late afternoon above an open stretch of Highway 39 north of Azusa.

(Jaclyn Cosgrove / Los Angeles Times)

With the Angeles Crest Highway closure, hikers could take Highway 39 about six miles to Islip Saddle, rather than the 10-mile journey required by parking at the Angeles Crest Highway closure and walking that stretch of closed road.

Caltrans has tried for years to address Highway 39’s long-term future. The agency projects its current plan will cost an estimated $46 million.

Meanwhile, the agency remains bound by California Streets and Highway Code to maintain the highway. If El Niño brings storms that damage the road again, history suggests Caltrans will fix it, seemingly stuck in an endless loop of patchwork repairs for one of California’s most challenging mountain highways to maintain. That’s a strange silver lining to a bureaucratic nightmare.

3 things to do

A Cabrillo Marine Aquarium staffer teaches children about life in a tide pool.

(Cabrillo Marine Aquarium)

1. Search for cephalopods in San Pedro
Educators from the Cabrillo Marine Aquarium will host tide-pool walks on Saturday (12:30 to 2 p.m.) and Sunday (1:30 to 3 p.m.) at the Point Fermin tide pools in San Pedro. Guests can attend a brief orientation and then head on a naturalist-led hike to see the animals in their natural habitats. Outdoor clothing and closed-toed sneakers are recommended. Learn more about the Saturday and Sunday hikes at cma.recreation.parks.lacity.gov.

2. Assist the land’s recovery near Altadena
We Explore Earth, a community-building outdoors nonprofit, is organizing a volunteer group to repair habitat from 8 to 11:30 a.m. Friday at Eaton Canyon Nature Area. Volunteers should wear close-toed shoes, long pants, work gloves and other protective gear, along with their own water and snacks. Park staff will provide hand tools. Sign up at signupgenius.com.

3. Seek out snowy egrets in Santa Paula
The Ventura County Resource Conservation District will host a free 3-mile walk from 8:30 to 10:30 a.m. Saturday through the Santa Clara River Preserve (1368 Mission Rock Road in Santa Paula). A bilingual biologist will answer questions as guests meander the habitat, looking out for local bird species. Register at eventbrite.com.

The must-read

Times staff writer Deborah Vankin, left, participates in a 50-minute walking therapy session with therapist Ismary Colón Angueira on the Fern Dell Trail in Griffith Park.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

I often tell my wife as I return home that a hike felt “therapeutic,” but I mean it more in a holistic sense. I leave the trail often in an improved mood with more clarity — sometimes after talking through a problem with myself as the trees listen. But I hadn’t thought about meeting my therapist on the trail. Times staff writer Deborah Vankin recently explored the practice of walking therapy by taking a hike through Griffith Park with psychotherapist Ismary Colón Angueira, who specializes in the modality. “Bringing people back into relationship with nature,” Colón Angueira said, “is the bigger point of all this. In my ideal world, my clients continue walking after they stop seeing me. And they reconnect to this relationship with place. Being in nature is our birthright. It’s something that everybody has access to. And it’s healing.”

Happy adventuring,

P.S.

The Trans-Catalina Trail is a 38.5-mile journey across Santa Catalina Island, taking hikers through rugged landscape with incredible views of the island’s mountains, pristine coast and the Pacific Ocean. Planning a multi-day backpacking trip there is no easy feat, as visitors must pack for significant elevation gain and loss — more than 6,000 feet total, according to the Catalina Island Conservancy — on a route with minimal shade. Sports and outdoors store Sports Basement will host a free seminar about how to prepare for hiking the Trans Catalina Trail at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday at its Long Beach location. Regardless of how long this trek has been on your adventure bucket list, this sounds like a great opportunity to learn more.

For more insider tips on Southern California’s beaches, trails and parks, check out past editions of The Wild. And to view this newsletter in your browser, click here.

Khartoum, Sudan – Rasha Abdelaziz Musa works every day for seven hours selling tea. But by the time she finishes for the day at 10pm, she’s still unsure if she has enough to feed her four children.

Musa, 39, is doing her best, but her earnings are increasingly no longer enough to cover soaring food prices in the Sudanese capital.

Her husband, a member of the Sudanese military, has spent more than eight months on the front lines of the country’s war, in which the military has been fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since 2023. Musa has not heard from him for months, and he has sent no money.

In his absence, Musa has been left to provide for their children, who attend kindergarten, primary and secondary school.

Musa told Al Jazeera that feeding her family costs about 40,000 Sudanese pounds per day ($4 at the parallel-market exchange rate) before accounting for rent, household essentials and other expenses.

Some of the family staples are ful medames, a dish of stewed fava beans, or lentils. When lentils are too expensive, Musa serves taamiya, or falafel, sandwiches.

Prices regularly change, and Musa often ends the day in debt to the traders she gets her food from.

Large families struggle

Musa is not alone in struggling to cover her family’s daily expenses.

Ahmed Youssef, 61, supports a family of 12 through his work in a butcher’s shop and as an occasional intermediary in livestock sales. He can earn 90,000 to 140,000 pounds ($9 to $14) when a deal succeeds, but that income is irregular.

He told Al Jazeera that his household spends more than 100,000 Sudanese pounds ($10) daily and his income is no longer enough to support the family.

“One income is no longer enough to cover the family’s needs, and sometimes my older children have to work to help meet expenses,” Youssef told Al Jazeera.

Ali Fadil supports a family of 10. Without a permanent job, he goes to the market each morning to look for work. Some days, the 57-year-old earns enough to buy food, but on other days, he finds no work at all. And yet his daily expenses still reach about 70,000 pounds ($7), with rising prices adding to the financial pressure he faces.

“Sometimes I skip meals so I can pay for school fees or medical costs,” he said. “I also borrow money to meet other obligations.”

Food prices rise as Sudanese pound weakens

A survey of four local markets in the Khartoum State area by Al Jazeera last week found that prices for several essential foods had risen sharply within days, making it increasingly difficult for families to plan their spending.

A kilogramme (2.2.lb) of sugar cost about 10,000 pounds ($1), up from 9,000 pounds ($0.90) two days earlier. A litre (1 quart) of cooking oil rose to 25,000 pounds ($2.50) from 20,000 pounds ($2) while a loaf of bread costs 500 pounds ($0.05), compared with 300 pounds ($0.03) a week earlier.

Lentils cost about 10,000 pounds ($1) per kilogramme, up from 8,000 pounds ($0.80), and rice was priced at 13,000 pounds ($1.30) per kilogramme, up from 10,000 pounds ($1). Powdered milk reached 70,000 pounds ($7) per kilogramme, up from 60,000 ($6) two days earlier.

The Sudanese pound has also continued to weaken. According to exchange rates monitored by Al Jazeera, $1 was trading at 10,050 Sudanese pounds on the parallel market on Friday, compared with 9,500 the previous day.

Food inflation adds to pressure on households

Official figures offer further evidence of the rising cost of living, particularly in Khartoum and other urban areas.

According to Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics, prices across the country were 28 percent higher in September than a year earlier, up from 26 percent in August. Prices rose by 7.5 percent in September alone, more than double the increase recorded the previous month.

Food prices have risen even faster. Across Sudan, food and beverages cost nearly 37 percent more in September than a year earlier, up from an annual increase of about 21 percent in August. In September alone, food prices jumped by more than 17 percent.

The situation was particularly severe in Khartoum State, where prices were nearly 60 percent higher than a year earlier. Prices rose by more than 15 percent in September alone, following an increase of nearly 9 percent in August.

That sharp increase comes as the capital region struggles to recover from widespread destruction caused by the war. Although displaced residents have begun returning and businesses are gradually reopening since the military recaptured the state from the RSF last year, damaged infrastructure and rising transport costs continue to constrain the availability of goods.

The return of residents has also increased demand for essential supplies, further driving up prices. In September, fuel shortages hit the capital as consumption rose faster than supplies could be replenished.

Urban areas have generally been hit harder than rural communities. Food prices in towns and cities were 55 percent higher than a year earlier, up from about 40 percent in August. Overall, prices in urban areas rose by 40 percent over the past year, compared with about 21 percent in rural areas.

The war is the main driver of these increases, disrupting livelihoods and supply chains. According to the World Bank, Sudan’s economy shrank by an estimated 29 percent in 2023 and a further 14 percent in 2024 as the war devastated businesses, disrupted agricultural production and eliminated jobs.

The conflict has also forced millions of people from their homes with nearly 8.9 million people still internally displaced as of April, according to the International Organization for Migration.

War destroys livelihoods

Journalist and economic affairs specialist Khalid Teks said Sudan’s economic deterioration began long before the war. Falling oil production after South Sudan’s secession in 2011 worsened conditions as did the depreciation of the pound, cash shortages, international isolation, political conflict and corruption in the years preceding the removal of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019.

Teks said political instability during the power transition undermined Sudan’s economic performance, and deep reforms were not implemented before war broke out in 2023. The conflict devastated infrastructure and productive sectors, depleted savings and disrupted economic activity. The climate has also been a factor. Strong agricultural production in 2024 was followed by concern over limited rainfall this year and possible food shortages after the harvest begins in November.

Teks told Al Jazeera that families increasingly deplete their savings and sell their possessions to cover everyday expenses.

He also pointed to disruptions to remittance channels, which many Sudanese households rely on for financial support.

Teks called for easier humanitarian access, an end to the war, direct support for vulnerable households and low-interest loans for small businesses and craft enterprises.

“The government needs to provide direct support through dedicated funds and the Zakat Chamber, facilitate humanitarian organisations and offer affordable loans for small businesses and vocational activities,” Teks said. “This could help reopen markets and workshops and expand microfinance.

Manchester United manager Michael Carrick left the Old Trafford pitch on Sunday to the sound of his name being sung by the adoring home support, but he may never lead the team onto the field again.

His players followed him and the message delivered to them and the club captain Bruno Fernandes, who was an unused substitute, was quite different.

The 3-0 thumping by Bournemouth was a result that marked a 40-year low for the crisis club and plunged it to new depths – and the fans were determined to let United’s owners and playing staff know it.

The opening seven league matches marked United’s worst start since 1986. The latest defeat, their sixth of the season, leaves the club just a point above the relegation zone and without a win in eight matches in all competitions.

What has happened between Fernandes and Carrick?

Fernandes, the Professional Footballers’ Association’s Player of the Year last season, was left among the substitutes on Sunday as a result of criticising Carrick after Wednesday’s 4-1 humiliation at Como in the UEFA Champions League.

The Portuguese player has been the Red Devils’ darling since he arrived in 2020, and seemed to have sealed his place as a club legend in a time of darkness with his accolade achieved on the back of United’s third-place finish, which they have only twice bettered in 13 years.

The award came as a result of his record number of assists in a Premier League season – all the more impressive in a side that lacked a spark anywhere else on the pitch.

The upturn in fortunes under Carrick’s interim position last term, when he replaced Ruben Amorim in January, resulted in his full-time appointment in the summer.

A tenure that may now have run its course, with him and United’s best player seemingly at loggerheads.

How have fans reacted to the Premier League giant’s fall?

The United fans are famously loyal to their managers and players. Boos for anyone associated with the home side at Old Trafford were relatively unheard of until the last two seasons.

Now the boss receiving the adulation on exiting one of world football’s greatest stages – the Theatre of Dreams – may be the one on whom the curtain is being pulled.

Fernandes is no villain in this piece, but United’s fans have delivered a clear message directly to the heart of the dressing room – sending it via the player who could do no wrong in the eyes of the supporters will leave the ears of every member of the squad ringing.

Enough is enough.

Outplayed is one thing, but being outrun and outfought is another.

What is the context of Man United’s demise?

United’s history has been one of rebuilds and comebacks. They have known difficult days – their most successful manager Sir Alex Ferguson was on the verge of the sack in 1990 before winning the FA Cup and beginning one of the greatest runs of trophy-laden eras in football.

Their wait for a league title stretched from 1967 – and the Holy Trinity of George Best, Bobby Charlton and Denis Law – to 1994, when Ferguson’s inspired signing of Eric Cantona ignited glory days even the biggest club in the world at the time had never seen.

Now, United are on the edge of a precipice – quite literally if the gap to the drop zone is even to be realistically contemplated. Perhaps United’s cross-town rivals City won’t be the only Manchester club facing relegation this season.

That is demise no one is truly considering yet.

Is it a case of Carrick or Fernandes for Man United?

They are, however, at a crossroads – and the divide between Carrick and Fernandes – his captain, who criticised the tactics that stopped United pressing their Italian opponents in midweek, is likely to see the axe fall on the manager rather than a valuable asset.

“Manchester United need to make the change tonight (Sunday),” former England team-mate of Carrick, Jamie Carragher, told British broadcaster Sky Sports when asked if a sacking was needed.

“The fans have taken the side of the manager, which is not about him being the manager, it’s about him being a huge figure in United’s history – and those players have done nothing compared to teams of the past.

“So Carrick is always going to win that fight – and rightly so – with Fernandes, no matter how talented a player he is.

“But also United – one of the biggest clubs in the world – are 16th in the table right now and that can’t happen – it can’t continue and Carrick needs to be relieved of his duties.

“He wants to be sacked. It’s become untenable. He doesn’t want to be sat in the dugout with those players.

“Imagine going into training with Fernandes after not bringing him on? It’s a rancid dressing room. He wants to be put out of his misery.”

Gary Neville, former Manchester United defender and team-mate of Carrick’s for club and country, added: “Carrick is popular, but the owners, the sporting department and the players are not.

“They will probably make a decision that will disgust United fans, but it is probably necessary.

“The club is a mess.”

What has Carrick said amid rumours of the sack?

The final word of the day belongs to the man in the middle of a power battle that has seen him win the popular vote, but one that is unlikely to sway the United hierarchy.

“I take the responsibility,” Carrick said in the post-match news conference. “I totally understand the situation, I’m not expecting anything, I’m carrying on as normal and I love this place.”

In something of a reference to dropping the club captain and the response he received from the crowd at the end, Carrick continued: “I always do what I feel is going to be the best for the club, whatever decision is made.

“I’ve tried to do everything I can to not be in this position and for a number of reasons, whatever they are, we’ve not been able to stop that happening to the position we’re in.

“I’ve always felt that support and always felt that connection with the [fans].

“I have to say it is mixed emotions, I didn’t really expect that from the supporters. The respect that I have for them and for them to show that back meant an awful lot.”

Emotions are running high at Old Trafford and, even though Carrick denied it, his fanfare at the end may well prove to have been his farewell.

The Theatre of Dreams has become a house of horrors – for the 11th manager since Ferguson retired and with United’s last Premier League title now stretching back to 2013.

LAS VEGAS — Five days after settling back into the White House, President Trump embarked on a political victory lap that took him to a rally in downtown Las Vegas.

Joined by Nevada’s Republican governor, Joe Lombardo, Trump told boisterous supporters that, as a first order of business, he’d directed every member of his Cabinet “to marshal all powers at their disposal to defeat inflation and bring down the cost of daily life.”

That hasn’t happened — not even close — and that failure is one big reason that Nevada’s governor is fighting for his political life.

Democrats, still smarting from their loss four years ago, have made Lombardo their No. 1 gubernatorial target this election season. Republicans are battling to keep their top-of-the-ticket foothold in a state that will, once more, stand at the center of the presidential campaign.

With just over a week to go — and with more than 335,000 ballots already cast — the contest could go either way.

After a career in law enforcement and eight years as sheriff of Clark County — home to Las Vegas — Lombardo made the leap to governor in 2022 in a pandemic-fueled backlash against Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak.

Reserved by nature and a political civilian most of his life, Lombardo has spent the last four years focused on the basics — crime, education, job growth, economic development — and largely steered clear of the country’s incendiary culture wars.

Unlike other Republican lawmakers, Lombardo has also shied away from the provocations and flamboyant pugilism of the MAGA movement.

Still, Trump hangs like an anvil around Lombardo’s neck — a fact his Democratic opponent, Aaron Ford, exploits at every turn.

Appearing last week at a gas station two miles off the Las Vegas Strip, Ford cited record-high fuel prices — and the knock-on effects they’ve had on tourism, groceries and online shopping — and said Nevadans were suffering for no other reason than Trump’s “war of choice” against Iran.

“And where,” Ford asked rhetorically, as traffic whooshed past, “is our current governor? As usual, he’s at Trump’s feet, serving as his doormat.”

Nevada Democratic gubernatorial candidate and current Nevada Atty. Gen. Aaron D. Ford arrives at a get-out-the-vote event on Oct. 7 in Las Vegas.

(Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

Ford, who’s bidding to become Nevada’s first Black governor, has one of those up-by-the-bootstraps biographies that campaign consultants see as spun gold.

He grew up in Dallas in a family that struggled to stay above water and, as a single father in his early 20s, relied on Medicaid and food stamps to get by. He worked as a waiter and a teacher to pay for law school and a Ph.D. in education before moving to Nevada in 2007. After six years in the state Senate, Ford was elected in 2018 to the first of two terms as the state’s attorney general.

Like Democratic candidates everywhere, Ford has made affordability a key component of his campaign.

Standing on the sidewalk outside a Circle K — where regular was going for $5.35 a gallon — Ford squatted to sign a blown-up copy of a “letter” to Trump demanding a $2,000 “pain-at-the-pump” rebate for every Nevada household. A line was provided, obligingly but obviously unnecessarily, for Lombardo’s signature.

Four years ago, Ford noted, when gas was around $4.68 a gallon, his Republican rival wrote on social media that hard-pressed Nevadans needed “leadership that ensures our families and businesses are protected from these disastrous policies.”

“But once he got in office,” Ford said, Lombardo “stopped fighting for us in Nevada and he started working for Trump full time.”

A few hours later, at a country-themed nightclub in northwest Las Vegas, the governor took to the stage to extol his performance these last four years.

Small-business creation and job growth are up, he told a crowd of supporters gathered on the dance floor. Teachers are better paid and more people are working in Nevada than ever before. “Kicking butt,” he said, referring to either himself, Nevada or both; it wasn’t clear which. “Kicking butt.”

Also, Lombardo added, Nevada’s crime rate has fallen for both violent and property crimes — “without any help from the attorney general.”

The words “Donald” and “Trump” never passed the governor’s lips.

Lombardo has had a somewhat mixed relationship with the president.

He kept his distance during the 2024 campaign and has occasionally, selectively, taken issue with the administration since Trump returned to office. The governor, for instance, spoke out against cuts to Medicaid as well as the shuttering of wind and solar projects in Nevada.
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But Lombardo didn’t help himself in the least when Trump came to town in August for another rally, this one at the Red Rock Casino. He heaped praise on the president and defended, of all things, the care and feeding of Trump’s plutocratic pals.

“Quite often when the press and the media runs him down, they think about, you know, he’s taking care of his billionaire friends,” Lombardo said. “Those billionaire friends provide jobs. Unless you take care of them, those jobs are absent.”

Naturally, the moment showed up in a campaign ad, showing the grinning governor alongside a smirking Trump and ending with the tagline: “Joe Lombardo. For Trump, Not Nevada.”

For his part, the governor has portrayed Ford as feckless and borderline corrupt.

He’s seized on the attorney general’s abundant out-of-state travel — for official business, Ford says — to portray him as a high-flier beholden to the special interests that financed his jaunts.

Lombardo has also accused Ford of being weak on crime, citing, in particular, the case of a Nevada inmate convicted of manslaughter in the killing of a pregnant woman. Ford placed the inmate’s bid for clemency on the agenda of the state pardons board — an example, Lombardo claims, of the way Ford treats criminals.

The Democrat said he was merely following procedure and would have opposed the clemency request had he not missed the board’s meeting due to an unspecified family emergency.

With a big financial advantage and the benefit of a highly practiced campaign team, Lombardo has kept the race close despite the rough political climate. But to a considerable degree, his fate is beyond anything that Lombardo can control. The key question is how big the Democratic wave is on Nov. 3 and how strong the Trump undertow.

Those forces of red and blue — more than anything either candidate says or does — will determine the winner in this most purple of states.

Cory Morgan has spent more than 25 years fighting for Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta to become an independent country. On Monday, Albertans will head to the polls to vote on the issue for the very first time. But even if the answer is no, Morgan said he’s in it for the long haul.

“I would respect the will of the voters,” he told Al Jazeera. “If they’ve decided it’s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop.”

Morgan, the founder of the advocacy organisation Pathway to Independence, is among a group of longtime separatists who have managed to push what was once a fringe idea onto the ballot.

Monday’s provincial referendum asks Alberta residents to weigh whether they would like to pursue a binding resolution in the future on the question of independence.

Polls indicate the pro-independence side has little chance of succeeding, with four of five people in the province saying they want Alberta to remain a part of Canada. But Morgan’s focus is on the one in five who don’t.

“That’s not a movement that’s leaving,” he said.

What the referendum will mean for the separatist movement and for Canada as a whole, however, is a more complicated question.

What exactly are Albertans voting on?

Monday’s ballot gives Albertans two options: to remain part of Canada or begin the legal process for holding a future referendum on separation.

A vote in favour of the second option doesn’t mean Alberta immediately becomes an independent country.

Any province that tries to secede would first have to go through complex negotiations with the federal government in Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples who live in and around Alberta.

Some separatist organisers have been using that distinction to encourage people to vote for the referendum — even if they don’t necessarily want independence.

“Strategic separatists and their leaders have been using that ambiguity, that lower-bar threshold, to entice folks to vote not to leave, but rather to send Ottawa a message that Albertans need to be heard,” said Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta.

He told Al Jazeera that the message may be resonating with some voters.

Data collected by Viewpoint Alberta, a University of Alberta-based research initiative, suggests that two-thirds of voters who support the referendum say they’re doing so for strategic reasons, to send a message to Ottawa.

These are people Morgan calls “reluctant separatists”, people who are “at the end of their rope” and simply want Ottawa to pay attention.

But Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned Albertans against this strategy.

“Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” he told a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”

What’s driving Alberta’s separatist movement?

Monday’s referendum has been decades in the making. Separatists have long felt that Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, sends too much money to Ottawa, subsidising the rest of the country while receiving little in return.

They also take issue with federal energy policies that they feel limit the potential of the province’s oil industry.

For Morgan, the resentment stretches back to the 1980s when the National Energy Program was introduced by the government of Pierre Trudeau, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s father.

The policy used price controls, taxes and ownership rules to keep Canadian energy affordable while directing more of Alberta’s revenues to Ottawa.

It has since become a central symbol of “Western alienation”, a term used to describe the sense of disenfranchisement felt among Canada’s westernmost provinces.

Those tensions resurfaced decades later under Justin Trudeau, whose term began in 2015. His climate policies, including a national carbon tax and a limit on emissions, angered Alberta’s oil sector.

“We’ve been fighting about the same things for 50 years,” said Morgan.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. Experts say demonstrations against health restrictions mobilised a new generation of conservative activists, breathing new life into Alberta’s separatist movement.

Trudeau ultimately resigned as Liberal Party leader and prime minister in 2025, amid sinking poll numbers. Carney was elected his replacement.

Last year, under growing pressure from separatist groups, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government made it easier to start referendums, helping bring the question of Alberta’s independence onto the political agenda.

For Wesley, the moment is less about growing public support for independence and more about pressure from within Smith’s governing United Conservative Party, whose members show higher support for separation than Albertans generally.

“We’re having a referendum because Danielle Smith wants us to have a referendum,” Wesley said. “She is looking to solve internal party matters by throwing a question to the broader public.”

Though she called Monday’s referendum, Smith has said she opposes the independence effort, and on October 14, she announced she had voted against seceding.

“In my view, now is not the time to give up hope in our country, not when we have fought so long and come so far,” Smith said in a social media video, explaining her vote.

Could defeat make the movement stronger?

Smith’s political gamble has drawn comparisons with the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, including from Carney.

At the time, then-UK Prime Minister David Cameron called a vote over whether the country should leave the European Union, in hopes of settling a debate dividing his own Conservative Party.

Voters ultimately chose to leave the bloc, triggering years of political unrest.

But Ian Cooper, a political scientist who grew up in Alberta and now lives in Ireland, says a more useful comparison might be a different UK referendum in 1975, when British voters chose overwhelmingly to stay in what was then known as the European Economic Community.

That vote, he said, did little to deter those who wanted the country out.

“The activists who were in favour of Brexit — this is before anybody called it Brexit — they really played the long game,” he said. “It took them 25 years, but they finally achieved it.”

Cooper suspects that, even if Alberta separation is roundly defeated, separatists could take a similar approach, pursuing the issue over the long term to gain prominence and support.

“My impression is that they really are true believers, and it’s really ideologically driven,” he said.

If Monday’s separatist vote fails, Morgan said separatists would need to take a hard look at why they had fallen short and work towards making a stronger case for independence in the future.

He does not believe the underlying grievances can be resolved by working within the Canadian system or by electing a more sympathetic federal government.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, acknowledged at Thursday’s rally that “the frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real”. He added that Ottawa had made people in the province feel “like our resources weren’t our own”.

The prime minister has tried, amid an ongoing trade war with the United States, to improve relations with Alberta, including through commitments to building a new pipeline to Canada’s west coast and major infrastructure projects.

Morgan admits that, for those whose goal is simply to get more leverage in Ottawa, “it’s pretty clear the movement has been effective”.

“We’ve seen more love from a federal prime minister in the last year than we’ve seen in the last 10,” Morgan said. “The problem though, when it comes to stubborn independence folks like me, is nothing has changed in the system.”

Prime ministers come and go, he added. “We’re just one election away from another hostile one.”

Why the other referendum questions matter

But the referendum could also offer an opportunity to challenge the premise that Alberta’s grievances cannot be addressed within Canada.

The independence question is just one of 10 on Monday’s ballot. Other proposals include restricting temporary residents’ access to healthcare and education, as well as allowing Alberta to choose its own judges.

Smith has encouraged Albertans to vote in favour of the nine other proposals, arguing that they will give her more negotiating power in Ottawa.

“Many Albertans I speak with tell me they want to send Ottawa a message, and I would suggest the best way to do that is to give us a strong mandate on the other nine questions,” she said on social media.

If Albertans back those proposals but Ottawa refuses to make concessions, Cooper, the political scientist, said the movement would have fresh ammunition to argue that meaningful change within the current system is impossible.

“Buried in the nine other questions are the seeds for a future referendum,” Cooper added.

What could keep the movement alive?

Not everyone agrees, however, on whether the separatists can emerge from the vote as a united force.

Wesley explained that people have been drawn to the separatist cause for a variety of reasons.

If there’s a sense that independence is not a realistic prospect, there may be little to keep that group of activists together, he said. They could turn their attention to other conservative issues, such as immigration.

Other experts question whether Alberta’s separatist movement, which is united more by economic grievances than by a shared cultural identity, can endure the way Quebec’s has.

Just two weeks ago, the largely French-speaking province elected the separatist Party Quebecois, which has promised a third referendum on independence after Trump leaves office.

Morgan, however, argues that Alberta does have a distinct culture, shaped by generations of people who have moved to the province in search of prosperity.

“The type of person drawn to do that is often an individualistic type of person,” he said. “They want the opportunity to go out and succeed or fail on their own.”

“And that builds a kind of a distinct culture on its own, even if it’s not a long-built one, as you would see in a distinct area like Quebec with a linguistic difference or in another country.”

Even if Albertans reject separation, he believes the movement has succeeded in forcing Ottawa to take the province’s frustrations more seriously.

“Hopefully some people understand that eventually something has to give,” he said. “So whatever the results are … I do hope, at the very least, they’ve served as a wake-up call to a lot of people.”