survey

‘Main reason for optimism’ is a belief that war in Ukraine will end in 2026 with Moscow’s ‘objectives’ achieved,’ pollster says.

A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, a state-owned research centre said, as Russian forces make advances on the battlefield and efforts intensify to reach a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

VTsIOM, Russia’s leading public opinion research centre, said on Wednesday that its annual survey of sentiment around the outgoing year and expectations for the coming year found Russians are viewing 2026 with “growing optimism”.

“Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic … In other words, while the negative perception of the current situation persists, Russians have become more likely to accept (or believe, hope?) future improvements this year, but they still do so with caution,” the organisation said in a review of its survey findings released online.

In a year-end presentation, VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said 70 percent of 1,600 people surveyed ​viewed 2026 as being a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, with 55 percent of respondents linking hope for a better year ‍to a possible end to what Russia officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mamonov ‍said at the ⁠presentation.

Mamonov pointed to the Russian military’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the Ukraine war and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the ‌United States’ role in Ukraine – financially and militarily – as key factors behind the prospects for an eventual deal to end the fighting.

At the conclusion of the conflict, reintegration of Russian military veterans into society and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, as well as Russian border areas, will be the main priorities, Mamonov added.

While the actual level of Russian public fatigue with the war is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on the media, expressions of public dissent as well as the prosecution of those who criticise Moscow’s war on its neighbour, approximately two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, according to independent pollster Levada, the highest number since the start of the war in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in comments released on Wednesday that he would be willing to withdraw troops from Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland as part of a plan to end the war, if Moscow reciprocated by also pulling back its forces and allowed the area to become a demilitarised zone monitored by international forces.

In comments to reporters about an overarching 20-point plan that negotiators from Ukraine and the US had hammered out in Florida in recent days, Zelenskyy also said that a similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control.

Russia has given no indication that it will agree to any kind of withdrawal from land it has seized in Ukraine and has long insisted that Kyiv must give up the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbas industrial area before any discussions on the cessation of fighting.

Russia has captured most of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk – the two regions that make up the Donbas.

Zelenskyy also said that figuring out the future control of the Donbas as part of the plan was “the most difficult point”, and creating a demilitarised economic zone in the region would require difficult discussions on how far troops would be required to move back and where international forces would be stationed.

Such discussions should be held at the leaders’ level, he said.

Dec. 16 (Asia Today) — Nearly half of South Korea’s small business owners say policies to boost domestic demand and consumer spending are the most urgently needed form of support, according to a new survey released Tuesday.

The Korea Federation of SMEs said 49.5% of respondents cited domestic demand and consumption stimulus as their top policy priority, according to its “Survey Results on Small Business Owners’ Management Status and Policy Tasks.”

The survey was conducted from Nov. 4 to 21 among 800 small businesses in daily life-related sectors, including wholesale and retail trade, lodging and food services, and manufacturing.

The results showed a largely pessimistic outlook for next year. About 89.3% of respondents said they expect business conditions to remain similar to this year (51.3%) or worsen (38.0%), while only 10.8% reported a positive outlook.

Asked about the biggest management burdens this year, respondents most frequently cited rising prices, including higher raw material and supply costs (56.3%), followed by declining sales due to weak domestic demand (48.0%), rising labor costs and labor shortages (28.5%), and loan repayment burdens (20.4%). Despite these pressures, 97.4% said they are not considering closing their businesses, which the federation attributed to the high share of livelihood-based startups, accounting for 91.4% of respondents.

The survey also found increased reliance on online platforms. The share of small business owners using online platforms rose 3.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 28.1%. Platform use was highest in the lodging and food service sector (44.3%), compared with wholesale and retail trade (20.3%) and manufacturing (15.5%). Among platform users, platform-based sales accounted for an average of 41.7% of total revenue, up 6.3 percentage points from a year earlier.

About 25.7% of respondents said their loan balances increased compared with the previous year, with the average interest rate on current loans at 4.4%. Among small business owners with loans, 90.4% said interest and principal repayments were burdensome.

Assessing the effectiveness of domestic demand stimulus policies implemented this year, 52.3% of respondents in the lodging and food service sector said they felt policy effects, compared with 18.0% in wholesale and retail trade and 8.5% in manufacturing. Among those who reported effects, 65.4% said the impact was temporary, while 19.7% cited short-term sales increases.

Looking ahead, respondents said future consumption-promotion policies should focus on concentrating spending in local commercial districts (41.8%), expanding the scale and duration of support (31.8%), and strengthening policy promotion (24.5%).

When asked about the most urgent tasks for the National Assembly or government, respondents cited stimulating consumption and reviving local economies (52.1%), addressing rising labor costs and labor shortages (45.0%), easing loan burdens caused by high interest rates (42.8%), and reducing energy costs (26.3%).

Choo Moon-gap, head of the Economic Policy Division at the Korea Federation of SMEs, said persistent inflation, weak domestic demand and a high exchange rate have worsened business conditions for small business owners. While consumption-stimulating measures such as livelihood recovery coupons have had some effect, he said, mid- to long-term growth policies that small business owners can clearly feel are also needed.

– Reported by Asia Today and translated by UPI.

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